it will be interesting to hear charlie evans next week, the new york fed president next week, these people are known as more on the dovish end of the spectrum and they seem to have been gaining influence over the past few months. they did not raise rates in september. it will be interesting to hear what they have to say. again nextave fisher week. >> currently, markets are pricing at 41% by the end of the year. does that sound right to you? >> i think that is on the low side. i don't think that if janet yellen was looking at our terminals, she would be happy to see the chances of rate hikes diminishing. >> she has definitely been watching that all day. >> i don't know specifically, but the fed wants to reserve the option to raise rates later this year. that does not mean a commitment, but they want the option on the table. if it sinks to such a low level, they don't want to shock the markets. they want to keep that hovering around 50%. >> just to recap from janet yellen's speech that she has yet our judgmentsg, about appropriate monetary policy will change, she said. this is text that she

. >> we have comments from charlie evans, the president of chicago fed.nterest rates. he's telling business leaders in milwaukee right now that, quote, a later liftoff positions the economy best for potential challenges ahead. we knew he was dovish. this is the first time we're hearing from him since the last federal reserve meeting. why is he in no hurry? he's worried about inflation. he says he's, quote, far less confident about reaching the fed's inflation goal over the median term. he also says he's less sanguine, what's becoming a favorite word of fed members, than his fed colleagues about reaching the inflation target. he says it could well be into the middle of next year before the dollar and energy headwinds on inflation dissipate. and he also isn't convinced that the job market is fully healthy saying he still sees slack despite the fact that the unemployment rate continues to fall. he goes on to say that, in fact, raising interest rates prematurely would cause, quote, substantial costs. one of those costs that he is discussing, credibility. he's

just today charlie evans of the chicago fed said that is there could be more down side risk to a ratean he previously thought, maybe middle of 2016 is the right time for a liftoff. do you get the sense that the fed is getting fearful of what's happening on the global stage? >> well, they have certainly said that they are data dependent and a lot of the data coming from outside of the united states has not been good. that coming from inside the united states has been decent if you look at jobs numbers and a bunch of other metrics, but if you're concerned about deflation, you know, we see commodity prices falling, that sort of works its way through the pipeline in terms of lower prices here. we've had lots of volatility coming from china, coming from other countries. so there is good reason to be cautious at the very least. >> tim, is itten inevitable that we go back to the august 25th lows? this is something we've been talking about for the last hour t seems like everybody is expecting that to happen before they want to get back in or maybe even at the extreme the lows put in last octo

charlie evans could disent if they do hike. on the other side, richmond fed president jeff lacher could dissent if they do. it will be interesting. if it is priced in, it's not fully priced in, and if it isn't, here we go again. see you throughout the rest of the afternoon. i know that. i want to go to the floor of the new york stock exchange. grasso accident you're on the 50 yard line so to speak for all this. what's the mood there? >> i think you started off pretty accurately. people are in a wait and see mode right now. trying to gauge whether or not to buy into this. it feels a lot like it's preloaded, scott. i think probably at this point you want to be sellers into this move after they announce what they're going to do. no one has any clue how to play it. i think selling at the upper band in a range-bound mode, probably healthy thing to do. >> grasso, thanks for your point of view as well. joe, stocks have rallied the last couple of days into what's going to take place this afternoon. does that make it more likely that gr

. >> chicago fed president charlie evans isn't so sure now is the time to raise rates.fact he says a quote, later lift off is best for the economy to deal with potential challenges. the biggest reason to be in his words, extra patient, the fed isn't meeting it's 2% goal of inflation and evans doesn't see the u.s. getting there as fast as some of his colleagues, quote, i believe it could well be by the middle of next year before the headwinds of lower energy prices and the stronger dollar disapate. translation, he may vote against an interest rate increase if the fed does go ahead with it this year. we'll get more clues on that later this week. janet yellen speaks again wednesday and so does bill duddy again and vice chairman speaks on friday. back to you. >> goldman sachs says it expects the fed to begin tightening in december. he cautioned against saying getting it over with is not a good enough reason. it expects growth for the company to shrink this year for the first time in five years. meantime the u.s. senate is expected to give final improvement to stop gap spend

a dovish governor could decent for charlie evans, most likely candidate for a decent.an't rule out braynard. it is really the chair's committee. it is by virtue of tradition and the committee. >> we'll see what happens in a few hours, steve, thank you very much. steve leishman, are investors reluctant to take positions ahead of the fed decision in probably. let's bring in our next two guests, good morning to you both. >> good morning. >> good to see you again, bob. it looks like you're thinking we all are overthinking this a bit and because of that it would be good to get it out of the way, is that fair? >> the markets have been obsessing over this for a long time, and we have had an emergency monetary policy for a long long time and there is no emergency any more. we just need to get it over with. i agree it's not an ideal time, but i agree that you can't wait for an ideal time. i think it is time to put this in our rearview mirror and people will learn that a quarter of a point on the fed funds rate in an economy that was last growing at a 3.7% rate. >> i don't want

also, raising interest rates won't have any effect at all, charlie evans made this point, on financialngs, so i would literally argue the biggest mistake central banks make is there is and raisingnegative rates too soon is worse than raising them later. the worry to raise them too late is there is too much inflation. there isn't any inflation. mike: are the days of proper the celebrity inflation over? has the print a paradigm change? those who are 18 months from now will worry that they will see inflation, are they getting it wrong? you, i, and i think tom have spent conversations answering that question. we have been told that inflation is about to explode and wage growth, so year upon year upon year and nothing has happened. we have actually monetary policies set up, if you liked what happened in the 1970's when they waste inflation, maybe we have to have a rethink when there is no inflation and central banks have to think about how can we create some. weon't buy the argument that are going to see raising inflation. we have not and we will be in a world perhaps where we are stuck and

i saw you and evan thomas on charlie rose recently. very good discussion. i've read evan's book, i haven't read your book, but i want to read your -- >> they're very different. [laughter] >> you took the words out of my mouth. thomas, i don't know how much of a stretch it is, but he really seems to reach for some -- >> [inaudible] >> speak up, please. just lean into the mic. >> oh, okay. i don't know how much of a stretch it was, but thomas really seems to reach for some positive things -- >> the lighter side of richard nixon. >> well, no, the positive things. the environmental protection agency, the eeoc. he cites -- and i'd appreciate your comment on this -- the dramatic desegregation of southern schools under nixon. niche quainted, obviously, by johnson. >> initiated by the supreme court. >> okay, okay. but nevertheless, there was a dramatic move during the nixon administration, correct? >> there was some change. >> okay. >> can i -- >> thomas says it's dramatic. >> okay. >> i don't know. okay. >> we're still working on race issues in this country, you kn

charlie. >> i'm not kidding. i've already preordered these. i just happened to be ordering stamps a couple of days ago and they had done the peanuts characters. >> preordering model xs. they're preordering iechiphones. and kelly evans is preordering the christmas stamps. >> i'm not far behind her. >> sue herera. 30 minutes to go, a little bit less. the dow is up 200. the s&p 31. the nasdaq 90. oil has turned ever so slightly positive. >> what an interesting quarter this has been. and we're closing it out. can't wait to see what happens in the third quarter. when we come back, a leading trader will tell us what he's watching in this final and most important half-hour. not only of the day, but of the quarter as well. >> main street investors are going to tell us what they're buying and selling in our retail investor round table coming up. >>> welcome back. we've got a news alert. >> really excited that we're announcing today the criteria for our debate. the fact that i'm going to be very fortunate to moderate along with becky quick and carl quintanilla. i know you and others will be involved in the pregame show. what we're trying to do is figure out the smartest way to present a debate that explains the american econ