william dudley last month cited sentiment as a key early gauge of evidence from any kind of trouble tied to market volatility. >> and despite that decline in oil prices, the major averages managed to close higher. the dow jones rose 102 points on friday to close at 16633. the dow had it's best week since late march. it gained about 2%. nasdaq and the s&p had their best weeks since mid july. >>> lower is better. that is the conclusion of a landmark clinical study on blood pressure. and as meg terrell reports, blood pressure is big business for the drug industry. >> the findings are potentially life saving. in preliminary results in a study published today, lowering blood pressure lower than guidelines currently recommend reduced cardiac events. normal blood pressure is 120 over 80. the top number is systolic. they found lowering that number to 120, rather than 140, reduced cardiac death and stroke by a third. it could have a big impact on the one in three americans that have high blood pressure, which is a leading factor for heart failure, stroke, and kidney disease, but some experts say

sufficient to turn the feds doves into hawks, now there are key players, like the new york feds william dudley, vice chair stan fischer and chair janet yellen who appear to be sitting on the fence. this is going to go right down to the wire on september 15th. the fed would not raise rates without a compelling argument that the u.s. economy is improving. good news on the u.s. economy would mean the u.s. is outperforming the rest of the world and would likely drive more investment into our market, including the stock market. this, at least, is the hope of the bulls. one thing the fed is certainly hoping for is that china remains calm. while the fed does not consider china part of its mandate, global turmoil is something they would clearly like to avoid. for "nightly business report," i'm bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. >>> amid all of that energy, warren buffett revealed it has taken a nearly 11% stake in the oil refiner phillips 66. the $4.5 billion position rebuil rebuilds buffett's stake in the company. phillips' shares rose more than 2% in today's trading. so here to discuss buffe

terms of the bigger picture, investors focused on and listening to comments from said president william dudley. ansaid what we have here is alert to investors that the volatility could get a lot worse. we also heard from the fed chair janet yellen who spoke on community banking. the significant improvement in the economy since then has helped communities and community banks. but i am well aware that the challenges for this sector continue. and my board colleagues understand this also. dudley was pointing out volatility could get worse as we get closer to win the race -- that it raises rates. we also had a lot of the widely traded stocks that were recently hit hard in the selloff bounceback. google, twitter, amazon posting decent gains. there is some firming under all the volatility. angie: i guess we will get the big crew on friday when we get the big jobs number coming out of the u.s. what are the indications there? su: we got some positive signs. we know the fed policy members are looking carefully at the labor picture. theresearch institute, private research out with data showing u.s. emplo

but in the dovish camp is janet yellen at the head of the table and also daniel, william dudley and charles evans. now in the weeks and months leading up to today cnbc has been speaking to some of the fed presidents about their views on monetary policy. >> my personal preference is that we don't have the most telegraphed policy decisions like we did in 2004. i do believe that at a at a dependence is what we should be doing. >> the decision to begin the normalization process at the september fomc meeting is less compelling than a couple of weeks ago. >> i have been talking about the normalization of rates for sometime. this week's events complicate the picture but it's too soon to say it fundamentally changes that picture. in my own view the normalization process needs to begin and the economy is performing in a way it's prepared to take that. >> economy is returning to normal. we're not certain we're there yet. >> let's continue the debate with the global economist at fidelity global invest mentinve. you expect no move today, why is that? >> i think it doesn't warrant an immediate hike. fun

william dudley said earlier today that the economy is doing well.aise interest rates later this year. echoed janet yellen's remarks from last week. >> economic data may hold the sawfor a liftoff paired we a gain in consumer spending for august, which showed the u.s. is headed for a showdown. eyes will be all on september, and on thursday, we will get the manufacturing isn report. important the most release of the week, the payroll unemployment rate. joined., we are a pivotal week for investors and the fed. now, forecasters have not had a lot of data to assess the degree to which the economy is responding. that all changed that ability? >> it should at least provide clarity. most of the data we have seen this morning have been august data and most of the data was before the financial markets wounds in the month. couple of data points, regional manufacturing series the the empire series in manufacturing index. all of those shown a pullback in response to the market development. the lingering question is, will show someconomic data of the negative impa

one william dudley will speak. we will hang on every word as he voices a certain tone. then a more important tone at 3:00 p.m., when janet yellen will speak. and the man in the middle, james bullard, he of the st. louis cardinals, will speak at 3:00 p.m. as well. we speak economics, finance, investment, and international relations. this is "bloomberg surveillance." good morning. ♪ everyone.morning, we begin four hours of "bloomberg surveillance." some important economic data out. first, we need our world headlines. here is francine in london. warning signsomic crop up in japan, raising the prospect of recession for the second time in as many years. analysts expected an increase in retail sales, that they did not improve during the month. the trends might push the government and the central bank in japan to prop up the economy. russian troops are one step closer to joining the fighting in syria. lawmakers have approved president vladimir putin's request to use military force. he is supporting syria's president, bashar al-assad, in the country's civil war. key economic da

>> i'm surprised by the whole time we've had with many members of the fomc, whether dudley or williamsno longer playing the game. one of the biggest out there with the case for a rate rise this year. you can see the market reaction to those on friday. although the headline was weaker, all the sub textual data, the jobless rate, wages data was all pretty supportive of a rate rise in the stock reaction of the european market. trained to use sound to me like in september the fed will go ahead and raise right. >> and one in three chance. i think that's probably underestimation. of course funny people think it one rising go. it is pushed well under 2016. i just don't read that at all. i think the markets could be in a bit of a's rally right now. though the sox were down 12% on where we were last night, the data coming through is not actually that strong in terms of earnings forecast in the forward economic forecasts. this is all pass data with second-quarter data, july data and predates all the trouble in china. nicole: absolutely. even with the gdp numbers in japan. thanks for bringing thi

dudley and williams were sounding hawkish.seems to me that with 16 out of 17 fed members due to speak over the next 10 days or so we're going to get so many conflicting messages. do you think the fed is as confused as we are? >> yes. i think many banks are very confused about the current situation. we tend to believe that the central banks around the global have all the answers of all the challenges that we're experiencing and that's not the case. i think it's interesting with the fed because today, especially when you have all of this uncertainty, it's so important that central banks give a very clear message and when you listen to fed chairwoman, miss yellen, she's quite clear. she would like to raise interest rates and if you listen to stanley fisher they'll also give you a very clear answer because what they are saying right now, that is that they are -- they must believe in strong labor market and we have a strong labor market i will say in the u.s. and the second thing i have to believe in is that inflation now will star

dudley. charles evans, john williams. looks like it's a bus why you day. meantime, at the u.n. general assembly we are expecting the address from u.s. president barack obama. he is expected to use the speech to taut the merits of diplomacy and engagement. the president will also meet with russian president vladimir putin this evening which is their first face to face in close to two years. he's also expected to talk with indian prime minister later on today and they meet with cuban president raul castro on tuesday. >>> meanwhile, hois speaker john boehner says there will be no u.s. government shut down this week. boehner resigned last week. he says he'll get as much done as he can. that includes pushing through a spending bill and avoiding a shutdown this week. >> appearing yesterday on cbs's "face the nation" boehner lashed out on those who made his position untenable. >> the bible says beware of false promise. there are people out there spreading noise about how much can get done. we've got groups here in town, members of the house and senate here in town who whip people into

you have bill dudley come out and say his enthusiasm for a rate increase wanes. now today, john williamscomes out and says, maybe the two rate increase as i all for this year will not happen at all. people are getting whipsawed by this. richard: they are. as we send the prior segment, data dependence is not a monetary policy. you see stanley fischer's take on his preferred course. i know all of them. they are world-class economists. but the fed is a committee chaired by chair yellen. at some point, she will have to get an arm around this and lay out the liftoff strategy is. mike: does it make a difference if they raise rates 25 basis points or they don't? will we notice other than the the rate? richard: increase itself is immaterial in a 17 joined al economy. what they are concerned about, of course, is that monetary translated through mortgage rates and currencies. in all three asset markets, they do not have full control over the market reaction and over the market pricing. have much less influence than they did 20 or 30 years ago. that is why there is all the skittish in a not because

fed president bill dudley said the central bank remains on track for a likely rate hike this year and could reach its inflation target next year. san francisco fed president john williams reiterated similar timing. but in a separate speech chicago fed president charles evans said the best time to hike rates may not come until the middle of next year. >>> still ahead, the tax plan that would free nearly half of all americans from paying income tax. >>> the odds of a government shutdown have fallen since the surprise resignation of house speaker john boehner on friday, but his departure has increased uncertainty over a far bigger issue -- the country's ability to pay its debt. eamon javers is in washington for us tonight. so eamon, how contentious is this debate going to be about the debt ceiling in this post-boehner congress? >> reporter: sue, this is what we call a fluid situation here in washington, d.c. not a lot of people expected to see john boehner resign. in the short term it means we're unlikely to see a government shutdown this week. boehner will have the political freedom now to cut a deal with democrats to avert that this week. but later on in the year we've

dudley dissent unlikely. san francisco fed from the john williams to the right there, mr.aman, he was head of research at the bank when yellen had his job. he wants to hike this year, but not strong enough to dissent if he does not get his way this time. all the way over on the rightla likely no vote on the hike, he gave a case against delaying, but he gives a vote carefully, no hike, but a clear message it's coming satisfies lacker. a dovish governor could di send as well. evans on the left the most likely candidate, the chicago fed president. guys, it's the chair's committee. that's by virtual of fed tradition and virtue of personnel on the committee. that's what makes the failure to talk so confounding. if we knew where she sat, we'd knew where others stand. >> thank you. i like the break down, the equivalent of the electoral college on election night. we'll see you a little bit later. let's bring in another voice. >> or if she'd carry a briefcase, steve, right? >> you know, i didn't think about that, joe, a good question. you know, they picked -- i guess women carry br

dudley speaks at 8:30 a.m. in dealnews, energy transfer agrees to buy williams in a deal.publicly traded companies. upgrades and downgrades this morning -- dimon offshore is a hold at deutsche bank. performanceised the at credit suisse. finally, jc penny's it raised to a buy at stearns ag. live at the breaking news desk, i'm bill maloney. tom: to hear more breaking news over the terminal, you could do go. at squawk futures are a little bit better. ferro is watching those and we were talking before the break about how much of this has been overdone. there's too much fear in the markets amount enough reality about what is going on. , whateality kind of world we touched on just before the break was how greylock likes to look for distressed investment situations. you were heavily involved in greece and places like that. is there any place like that that we should be worried about within this entire universe we were talking about that is truly distressed, that is an opportunity for you, but a concern for the rest the world? diego: i do not think that i can think of something li