quite frankly, i think the fed will act in september. hank you so much, the chief financial economist at jefferies in new york. ahead on the bloomberg market day it we are following the breaking news at deutsche bank, basically eliminating their dividend for two years as they try to overhaul their struggling businesses. ♪ betty: good afternoon and welcome back. a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. michael said income inequality is among the most important challenges in the u.s. his bank is doing its part to help young people do their jobs. an address to the economic club of washington early today. wesley cannot be indifferent to the larger challenges facing the country and there are few issues more pressing than the widening wealth gap. unhealthy for society to fracture in this way. power -- ourour part to help young people find participate. betty: he is calling it a cautious recovery. johnset manager has hired as co-ceo. he has worked with the cofounder and current ceo. he was president and co-ceo all of

the fed -- of the fed. the fed has often been too close to wall street. but history shows repeatedly and vividly that in the case of money creation, the perils of market excess are more extreme than the risks of regulatory excess. thank you very much. >> if you had to choose between janet yellen and christina romer for a spouse to have racist, superior children, who would you choose? >> happily, i only have to choose one of them, not to be my wife. i'm happily married. >> it's a hypothetical. >> thank you. >> thank you very much. [applause] [laughter] thank you. very good, professor kuttner. now, dr. murphy, will you please call your first witness. >> yes, your honor. i would like to call johnalson to the stand. >> yea, john allison. [applause] come on, give it up, people, come on now. let's hear you participate! this is freedom fest, this is not a library. [applause] >> mr. allison, please raise your right hand and place your left hand on this copy of your favorite book that you make all of your employees read, atlas shrugged. [laughter] do you swear to t

i'm formally of the new york fed with bill. since mid last year, the biggest change in financial position has been the dollar. when you look forward, how do you think about the dollar in your forecast and policy strategy? is it reasonable to assume the you will get more drag from the dollar than you would normally get a few were following a rate pass that was more like the s&p than the rate currently in the market stucco bill: certainly we consider the dollar and how it will affect the trade sector. we have seen over the last year, the dollar has appreciated about 50%. of course, that is dampening inflation. we are not targeting the dollar in any sense. dollar in terms of its valuation to the treasury department to think of worry about. the dollar is an environmental factor, along with a lot of other environmental factors like the stock market. all of those things together serve what you describe as financial market conditions. if conditions are more accommodative, you would expect the economy to grow faster. if conditions are m

what the fed is looking at is the markets, the markets are looking at the fed's, and we are looking athis circular analysis, and i think that is presenting more problems. to explain this to the markets and then lead and then the markets will have to adjust to this. the more you pull back, because of concerns about the market, the harder it gets. each time you do that, each time you wait, it makes it more difficult when you really want to move. what is going to change, michelle, between now and march when we expect liftoff, or will there be more time for us to collect data? michelle: even if they grow at 2%, which is far below our estimate, you are going to see the unemployment rate go down. theext march, you can see unemployment rate solidly below 5%. you are still sitting at zero and i ultimately think that we will see probably a little bit more wage pressure, and i think that is going to be the ultimate trigger to process that and make the forward -- and make the fed take action. all right, michelle girard at rbs securities in stamford, connecticut. betty: and remember, vice chair st

in the way that only the fed could. ey can make the most clear language obtuse. >> very unclear. >> raise it in december unless the bottom falls out of the economic agenda game? >> i thank you very much for making it live. the key issues we did not see it was the trailing of the cats and the board of governors in terms of wages not being thrown in as a neglects precondition, accelerating competence. the important issue is the data dependence. all they need starting with the gdp report which will be weak which will be weak. they talk about the solid consumer spending. the things that we look forward to to carry us through abroad and making december live knowing that we've not corralled the cats yet, we've not corralled the views. i think it's shades of gray. it's not black and white. hawks and dogs on the board of governors. there are people who do not want to move on the board of governors. that's very unusual to have more than one person verbalize that. there's a lot of corralling that needs to be done. i think the data

perhaps with the fed was looking for. n have seen expressed throughout the course of the year of what a possible fed move would do. is that part of the fed's thinking and is there a domino effect if they move on rates and how that would impact emerging markets? effect. should be an how much it is already priced in. they have to make the best forible policy decisions the nine states. as ben bernanke used to say all the time, they know what they have to do in order to live with a world dominated by the federal reserve and if they do not do it, they cannot do anything about that. mark: michael, thank you so much. you can always find the latest news at bloomberg.com. act to you. david: breaking news just now. house republicans conference announced paul ryan will be its next speaker. get this reaction from you. to republicanst putting forward as speaker? >> i want to congratulate paul ryan for getting the nomination. forthis a lot of back and . he tried to get a prenup agreement with some of the tea party members. i am not sure

the fed went too far. and that prompted markets to overly price out the chance of a september rate hike. the fed wants that flexibility back. here's the question. should you infer this is a done deal? i don't know. it would be hard for the fete to put it back in play and then not do it. now the real debate. how much strength does the fed need the economy to hike? i'd venture not a whole lot. >> we'll pick right up with that in a moment. thank you for now. i am here in boulder, colorado. we're going to show you many of the candidates in preparation for tonight's gop debate, where we also expect a lot of commentary about the fed and about the economy. there's ben carson, having a look around. he's onstage right now. carson the frontrunner in the latest "new york times" cbs poll of republican primaries. that's going to put all the more focus on him in just a couple of hours. >> they'll be tested about his views on some of the more contentious issuicon ten -- contentious issues. dr. carson being briefed. i'll g

up, china andg the fed face-off. at that means for volatility and the global market next. ♪ mark: the rain keeps pounding south carolina after days of flooding and at least nine people died in two states. walking is a category one storm with winds about 80 miles per hour. bermuda,oday, a past uprooting trees and knocking out power to thousands. the u.s. coast guard says a ship that went missing in the atlantic ocean during hurricane joaquin sank. the body of one crew member has been found. there were 33 on board, 28 of them americans. the top u.s. general in afghanistan is confirming that an american venture care. the aerial assault that destroyed a doctors without borders center in the city ofkunduz. it was the first statement of response ability for what general campbell called "a tragic event." doctors without borders says it is withdrawing from the city. about the company's 2800 jobs, workers stormed in and the wording on to managers at air france. they escaped narrowly, but their clothing was left in tatters. the

but, what's the more important factor for the fed? international developments and that's why they didn't hike in the month of october. >> indeed. janet yellen and co, they don't want to hike too early and go down as the central banker that derailed the recovery and for me i agree it's international situations adding to their fear of going too early but i don't think it's global growth. i think it's what they fear will happen in other banks. european central bank but china. is that about to ease. do they want to be hiking the fed and see the dollar shoot up off the back of that? i don't think they do. >> you might be right on that front too. interesting look at currencies this week. the dollar has been very much range bound against other currencies even though some of the commodity related currencies lost a lot of steam. a lot of people say once we do get a better than expected number. a very strong number today it might not be the reaction of the dollar that we're going to be seeing. it height be the much bigger reaction in the commodi

discussing the fed nondecision. big moves by the head. -- by the fed. bloomberg "surveillance." good morning. ♪ tom: there was a debate last night in boulder, colorado. washington reacts to the debate this morning. mr. rubio did that are then good. an important fed meeting, more and orton -- more important than many thought. we are giving you coverage of that today. right now, a is this flash with vonnie quinn. vonnie: deutsche bank settling claims over a violation of u.s. sanctions. a 200rman bank with billion dollars to settle an investigation by the federal reserve and new york state regulators. the bank broke u.s. laws on dealing with iran and other blacklisted countries. a $50 billion cash pile. the korean electronics company will use the money to buy back shares. it will boost capital spending by 14%. it is struggling to cut into apple's share of the market. sony returning in the second quarter. sales of the playstation 4 soard and the movie "hotel transylvania 2" said the box office records. that is the business/. -- the business flash. tom: we ar

and then there is the fed. take a look at my bloomberg what calculus the probability that traders are pricing into the market based on fed funds future. only a 4% move -- a 4% likely head of a move. to 43% in january and about 60% now for the march meeting. yesterday,er said find me those people who are pricing in the 4% length. they are not looking at the news apparently. what is interesting is that if you look in the divergence in yields between new york and here, we are continuing to see a rally on the tenure. your notes over in europe, italy turned negative yesterday for the first time. there is this divergence. julie: divergence between europe and other central banks around the world between the easing track and the amount using track. i do not think we can call it tightening here. it is just non-easing. if you look at the 10 year note here, we are seeing a little bit of a bump in yields at 2.60%. it is a pretty depressed level overall to what we have seen historically good take a look at the dollar as well

is the fed undermining itself? esting, they keep saying that the entire path is important, but markets are already pricing such a lower path than even the most dovish that even mari on a lakota has a dovish look. i don't think they need to be too worried about that. you areething else looking at is interest-rate volatility, what is going on here? you hear a lot about the fed being accused of having a communication problem that will harm their credibility, but we are seeing interest-rate volatility as of yesterday at the lowest level of the year so far, there's no real indication that they are doing a lot of damage. of those things that people just complain about and say rather than actual have a real problem? matthew: it kind of seems that way. joe: thank you. we will be right back. ♪ scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" big news came today this afternoon just before the market closed when deutsche bank announced its 2020 financial targets and within that said that they were going to suspend their dividends f

a template for the fed meeting. i did commodities instead. is is animal spirit, nominal gdp with a 10 year moving average. this is just before the crisis. the 10 year moving average is down 39%. people feelthing vonnie even if they cannot articulate it. it is not only the united states that throughout europe. -- the decline in animal spirit. vonnie: one central bank move. tom: john, i say this is a challenge that only that we see with economics but jon ferro it is a challenge within big banking as well. animal spirit, the nominal gdp out there. it is less there than it was a year ago. toathan: he comes down leadership. the news this morning, barclays naming former j.p. morgan chase senior banker, jes staley as the ceo. joining us now, stephen morris of a bloomberg news. i am calling this the worst kept secret in the city of london. no surprise. when does he get to work? what is the first thing we expect them to do? said that he is going to continue shrinking the investment bank which is flying in the face of what a lot of people expected when

the fed can't do it all. >> i know for a fact that kevin thinks that part of the continuing sluggishness in the sixth or seventh year of a recovery is because of the fed not their -- >> no, i don't really see it. but i would agree that a better policy would be a better mix. the fact that the fed is the only game in town means that the fed has to do too much. the fed is being relied on too heavily. >> when you decide that you're going to conjure animal spirits and hopefully the underlying economy catches up with the asset -- the price of assets going up from easy money, i understand that rationale, but you must think in the back of your mind that some people are doing things, taking risks and there's no way to gauge how much, how big, whether that comes home to roost in some horrific way. >> financial instability after what we've been through is a huge concern. fed is very, very engaged in this. under my chairmanship the fed restructured itself internally and put lots of staff and resources into monitoring the

that may give the fed cause, will it? karl: they have been very focused on getting off the year end. i keep saying 2015 for the liftoff date. odds have slipped to that increase. october is dead at the water. in the face of weak employment and staggering economic statistics overall, gdp is now 1.5%. to strike a hawkish tone. >> they backed themselves into the corner by continually using the phrase data dependent. is booming, car sales is booming. consumerism is in good shape. because these jobs numbers are lousy data, it is hard to make the case that they should be raising rates and the markets would not buy it anyway. october, i agree, is off the table. the case gets harder to make. were speakingene to peter fisher. what was the consensus? it had been coming in his words, broken for a while. >> they did not include the banking system instability problems in their models. peter was saying that had to be incorporated in. they don't have a working model that is going to work in the banking system. they don't agree on whether

that could put the fed on hold for a long time. we cannot overstate the importance of the next two jobs reports. we think jobs will pick up a bit, but a slow further from here, it takes the fed off the table. scarlet: crude oil prices down for a 10th day. we've seen what implications -- jobs on investment in the energy sector have come down as well. a lagging indicator when you look at the investment machinery. does that single many more firings in the energy sector? >> you've got ongoing pressure on jobs in the energy and energy related industries. cutting 10,000 jobs a month. the outset is that americans are joining this enjoying incredibly cheap gasoline prices. consumer spending should respond. it's a give and take here in terms of the impact of low oil. scarlet: the cheap gas prices does not lead to any inflation while the jobs picture in the energy sector puts more pressure on the overall labor market. ethan: right. the weakness in the mining sector is one of the big headwinds for the was economy. quite good.look the service s

have you this sort of -- fed is always a force in the market, we know you can't fight the fed but it has never been so important as it is now, you know, it makes it very difficult for the average guy. >> to liz a points, if you invest in a company, and hold it for years, you are not betting on the company you are betting on future of the enterprise. >> if herd mentality changes because of some reason it changes everything. liz: short-term though. >> two years of short-term is nasty, the. liz: the market is up, thank you tara, and ward, and charlie i disagree with you charlie. >> he knows a lot about martinis. >> and push ups. >> and long island ice teas, and decdeegan thank you so much. >> thank you. >> we have key evens happening right here with traders. stay tuned, i'm going to run you through that up next hurricane joaquin, ready to head north, already causing problem up and down the eastern seaboard. will its path lead to a direct hit. whatever you heard there is one comment. we don't know yet. we're going to take you live to kill devil hills, north carolina, and show you what it'

i think that the fed officials would like to watch carefully in coming data. >> right. of course, with regard to japan's economy, what impact do you think that will have? >> i think the main interest is policy by the fed itself will not have a major impact on japanese economy, but rather, i'm more interested in its implication for the decision by the boj tomorrow. i think that they, first of all, and i think the confidence shown by the u.s. economy itself could be encouraging messages for the members of the policy board by the boj who might use as an excuse for this time. >> some analysts believe that the u.s. rate hike would have an impact on emerging economies and acceleration of capital outflows and obviously, investors betting on higher u.s. interest rates. now, what do you think the continued effect will be for these economies and also the effect for china's economy? >> i don't think that the prospective rate hike by the fed could cause a substantial blow to the e merging economies, rather, i think what we're observing in the emerging economy is the manifestation of

it doesn't mean the fed can do whatever it wants, congress sets the goals of monetary policy in the fedas to carry that out, but you don't want the feds to be second guessed over every little monetary policy decision because that would politicize the process, reduce the credibility of monetary policy and make it harder for the fed to achieve its goal. there has been a lot of research that the outcomes are if monetary policy-- i think this legislation would reduce that independence and that would risk having a less effective monetary policy process in the united states, in my opinion. >> and disagree with that. i think in some sense if you look at where independence has come and gone, abs and flows, think of the accord on and off and the period of the 70s and it's clearly administration, so in a sense this legislation leaves it up to the fed to determine what a strategy to be, when you change it, what the report said and i think-- it's my experience in government, which is not a central bank, but in the administrations is that i think it would improve independence because this is our str

the fed was very aggressive with monetary policy. aybe we could have been more aggressive or moved more quickly but basically we provided the sort of monetary policy support the economy needed. but after the initial fiscal program in 2009, the congress basically went into a contractionnary mode, the sequestration which cuts spending, other budget cuts. budgetary and fiscal discipline is important but what the congress was doing was overshooting and delivering cuts at a time when the economy needed more help. one of the outcomes and results of that was with fiscal policy not being very helpful, and i would include the state opened local governments as well as the federal government, so much fell on the fed that the fed was really being asked to do in some sense too much, and that to some extent is still the case today. >> rose: i'll come back to that moment. did you use all the tools we had? >> if you go back, we never sent interest rates negative which you -- >> rose: you set them close to zero. >> yes. >> rose: you said in fact you w

that's the issue the fed has to deal with. pe they are dealing with, thinking about what's going on. >> here's another way, steve, raise the cost of capital for corporate america at the same time cash flows are under pressure, why would the stock market go up? >> i think that's -- i think that's fair enough, but what people are talking about is the idea of the dollar being a temporary phenomena. the oil, opening with oil now, something that works through the system, you're in a profits crunch that does not a year from now, essentially, repeat itself in that the dollar is not going to strengthen forever. >> i disagree with that. our firm, we are secular bulls on the dollar. the reason why? the credit bubble left the world with over capacity. now, you know, your economic textbook says shut down capacity and reallocate assets. nobody does that. that means laying off people in the country. rather than what you're going to do is try to create policy to use up that access capacity, namely, deappreciating currency for market share. a

now the fed in the new language has the flexibility to hike.t doesn't mean the december rate hike is a done deal. it does mean the december meeting is a live one where the fed could hike, if the economy goes along pretty much as it's been going. so, that means the bar may not be all that high. for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman in washington. >> and here to talk more about the fed and the economy more broadly is richard fisher. he's a former president and ceo of the federal reserve bank of dallas. mr. fisher, it's always great to have you here. >> thank you. >> take us inside the meeting room over the past couple of days, and then parse that statement that the fed put out. do you put as much importance on those words "at our next meeting," as the popular press seems to? is that a clear signal that a rate hike is coming in december? >> i actually don't think there's a whole lot that's new in this statement. there was some change of emphasis. they took out this emphasis, for example, on international developments. but the chair hers

louis: the fed is not helping. point is the amount and anxiety is wholly disproportionate to the economic impact. the getting that move out of the way -- the first move really is important, because it reaffirms to the market that the fed can move. it takes out the notion that you will never get a fed move. is that volatility generated by the lift off debate so disproportionate to the economic impact? what accounts for it? uis: the stock market is a beauty contest. everybody knows it's important and it becomes important just because it is important. even though you're not thinking about the actual economic impact. the macro impact is minimal. joe: there is a small chance that the fed might not be able to raise rates. the mechanics are different because of the gigantic balance sheet on the reserve and a rethink. how concerned are you about that? i'm not concerned the fed would be able to raise rates if it chose to, but you have to knowledge the possibility that the world may be weaker than you think. there is some ch

it is better to wait for each meeting and the fed not to be making any promises. >> what the fed is doingst neutralized by what the ecb is doing and what we expect might be coming down the line from the boj. how is this going to affect the global currency market? -- theink the doctor dollar could strengthen further. japanesemay fall, the yen may fall against the u.s. dollar. a lot of emerging-market currencies have already fallen. from an emerging market perspective, we are close to the bottom on the currency space. angie: do you the safety had been play on the japanese yen will continue as we look at the volatility? >> my assumption is it will start to reduce in the future. emerging markets have adjusted for the most part. they have a more competitive currency. angie: i have to ask about china. do you expect depreciation in 2016? >> i hope that happens. angie: and the reason? >> is better for china to let the currency move due to market forces. that is what it says it wants to do ahead of the imf decision in november. thanks for joining us. we have breaking news right now out of japan to

but the fed's creed a new dynamic today. the new dynamic is that as oil price goes up, and the dollars cars running, they might raise rates. let's imagine the oil price goes up. the dollar goes down. they're going to raise rates. the dollar goes back up. oil goes back up. they brought a new dynamic into the market, that if they are not going to raise rates, the variables they are looking at can go their way. but as soon as they go their way, they will raise rates. in the variables will turn down. anna: so then we are stuck. david: i think the fed has changed the dynamic. anna: interesting. i was struck by one of the lines in a minute. compared to previous forecast, more now, we're seeing that inflation is tilted to the downside. it seems amazing in the complex of rate rising. 2018, they are saying they may see 2% inflation. we have argued that the feds wanted the cycle truncated. if the world is falling apart, and growth is absolutely collapsing and the financial problems -- the dollar have a safe savhaven. but the fed is not

you need the ability of firms to fail. once governments or fed or central payers step in it chaings everything. ben bernanke and paulson pulled the switch on the track and we are now on the wrong track in my opinion. in terms of inflation, you can look at financial inflation and in terms of commodity, volatility, ask the harper in canada or in australia what the central bank did with the foreign exchange volatility they created. talk to emerging market central bankers and they put them through all of these exercises only to leave them, what, stranded without any removal of accommodation. it doesn't hold water. there is another side to every story. >> rick santelli with heavy -- >> i knew that would get him worked up. >> jim bianco as we leave, would you guy bye into this market right now? >> i'd hold off a little bit. i disagree with phil? that i think earnings are an open question mark. you have the positive of chief money that's going to offset t this market you have to be used to every day is going to be a 200 or 300 point day. pretty much the

the fed deviates and everything falls apart. aren't there a lot of other things going on at the same time? monetary policy cannot do everything and the fed says that and i agree. but it can cause instability. it can cause stability. if you look at the timings of those movements. if you look at different period's of history, and you look at different countries, monetary policy is very powerful for good and for that. andd: tighter in the 2003 2005. period. john: by way of comparison, into who thousand three, the file 2%. was in 1997, the inflation rate was inflation, 1.5%, the other .1%. it was a big difference. that was a search for yield. part of the excesses. i always say it was not the only thing. there was some regulatory oversight missing. put those together, and we never know for sure, but it is just the kind of thing that people were talking about. >> do you agree? i think monetary policy is second or third quarter. order.hird i would point to the -- they turned out to be toxic. i think we would have had a -- if i were to ,

expecting the fed to hike. at the size of glencore, vex wagolkswagen, theo many credits that are deteriorating so fast and if you add into it the dollar strength is behind all of this, i really feel that if the fed has to contain the dollar to put out this global fire because the dollar has made a 27% move in 19 months and it's really behind a lot of this credit risk. >> so how does the fed do that, larry? it's supposed to raise interest rates. it's not doing to help the dollar. >> well, the reason the dollar is surging is because the fed -- the whole world, 80% of analyst strategists a year ago said the fed would hike in june or september. the whole world has been waiting for the rate hike. that's why the dollar surged close to 30%. if the fed pushes out the rate hike, they could calm down some of these credit risks because the dollar will probably move back to the 80 and 85 range. >> okay. larry, we're going to leave it there. thanks for your time. >> thank you. >> coming up next, we will try to make sense of

hashead of the u.s. fedhe central banker to the world, if indeed there is such a person. i think it is not an easy spot to sit in, but in the way the u.s. works, janet yellen is probably trying to persuade her colleagues to take the temperature. is going tolagarde be speaking with francine lacqua in lima later this morning. when i look at global growth and the new mediocre, the dirt of productivity in america, where does growth come from? how do we get to an economic growth that will satisfy christine lagarde? deanne: i think what we are seeing is a growth divergence, not a generalized lack of growth. certainly in china, it is still growing and very well. the u.s. is going pretty well. the u.s. economy is pretty close to full employment however you define it. i think there are worries, certainly, in some emerging markets, but it doesn't seem to me that it is sensible for the world economy to be aiming at something that is unachievable in the long run. i think something like 4.5% is unachievable. jonathan: in

it is what the fed is focused on. the sales numbers rates.ay screams hike you look at the manufacturing numbers as do the inflation figures, what are the proxies that you're looking at is going to guide the decision come december? if you look at the forward inflation market over the next month, we see a small down drop of inflation. after that, cpi rebounds quite sharply. they're looking through these transient factors. they're looking at the strength of the consumer. they are looking at international factors. seen that in the u.s. data. the surprising thing we have seen in the last few months is the equity volatility and the global volatility has not dented the services side of the economy in the u.s.. it comforts us and terms of our globalat china condensed growth. jonathan: you and i are knee-deep in fed watching. if i walk along main street, if i care about janet yellen's next federal reserve meeting? does it do the same thing to the real economy? is the real economy sitting there saying will they? won't they? hear

that would add to their capital part. " let's look about the fed. the jobs picture and the fed. say about the state of things in the u.s.? a huge advocate of this low interest rate environment. our week at the end of the quantitative easing cycle, no, not at all. frederic: i am not that big of a fan of economic policy. it lasted too long. they are a good economic booster, they create distortions in asset prices. manyuch money chasing too -- chasing to less assets. at fed will raise rates here -- raise rates. we seem to think so in december. money will be available and that's where personally i remain positive. progress scenario of and improvement of the economy in the eurozone. the local commodity price is not that bad. assets this category of will be considered not that expensive. manus: you think they will extend qe in 2016. frederic: maybe a little bit longer. manus: great form. range ofd a broad issues. a great deal of tablets back in 2011 himself. he grasps the issue and message. anna: manus, thank you very much. manus with that exclusive interview with frederic oudea. .et's

joe: let's talk about the relation between the fed and the job market. it was recently written that the fed can never raise rates if the market discounts lower rates. the prediction is the fed will raise rates only when the market is begging for it. ing marketa begg look like? tom: i agree with the essence of that statement. i think the fed would want to have sufficient confidence to know they do not unleash unintended consequences. the second, they do not want to be in a position to reverse it. the evidence and the economic data has to be overwhelmingly good. joe: having -- alix: having this bullish reversal, we are down 200 points, we are ending in positive territory. does that indicate it would be enough? tom: yeah. the rally was great. what bothers me is high-yield has not been act in great. it is not a real confirmation. folks will be mulling over the weekend over the dichotomy. they want confirmation. alix: it is about what the market is saying and what the data is saying. they should go hand-in-hand with one another. from the fed's perspective, th

four years ago, october 11, the fed did something, given that the fed -- and the economists and newscasters who parrot the fed said we're going to have -- we're getting out of this. we're sustainably growing. they launched a new round of qe in october '11 and the market took off from there. >> listen, i have no problem if we could actually artificially create growth. obviously, anybody would looked at the world economy created a lot more depth than growth. charles, thank you for being on. hopefully next time we won't get uprooted by live events. >> let's send it over to john and see what's coming up. >> we're going to continue to talk twitter. jack dorsey is the new ceo. and who else has changes coming there. also, google is now officially alphabet. does this mean they're going to spend less, spend more? and we are on the red carpet for the new steve jobs movie. all that and more coming up. so what's your news? i got a job! i'll be programming at ge. oh i got a job too, at zazzies. (friends gasp) the app where you put fruit hats on animals? i love that! guys, i'll be writing code that helps

a takedown from the fed statement last night. the fact that we do still have a life is a suggestion perhaps if the data allows them to do so they will look to hike rates in december. a whole lot of factors between then and now. let's look at the individual sectors. we have had the likes of shell this morning. is and a mixed bag in terms of their earnings. shell underperforming. oil and gas 0.7% here. telco's. on the down side, just three in the red at this stage. health care, and the lower resources. deutsche digesting their earnings and barclay's as well. let's look at the individual markets this morning and see how they are opening up. relatively unchanged for the ftse. ah, here we are. led by 0.5%. unchanged for the french markets. remember, there is going to be a bit of a pickup based on what we saw at the back end of the u.s. session yesterday. 1.2% rally. expect a bit of a pickup. >>> more headlines news out of deutsche bank. they are going to reduce the workforce by 9,000. that's 9,000 full-time jobs, 6,000 external contrac

party the ending soon thanks to the fed? a new reality for oil giants. the latest earnings reports provide valuable information on how the giants are adjusting in -- to life in a world of $45 oil. -- valeant in the news. they have a better chance of hitting zero thean the target herbalife. julie hyman has the latest. the s&p is near its low. not so happy friday if you are long stocks. all the major averages here all down .3 of 1%. trajectory inhis the last half hour. we could be seeing some end of the month rebalancing. there was a big sale order coming through. at 2 p.m. ase stocks have taken a leg lower but this movement mirrors the move that we have seen in the financials. with financials the biggest drag on the major averages, lower all day but that decline starting to accelerate at the same time we saw declines in the major averages start to accelerate. e saying so decline -- some declines. we are seeing them drag down on the s&p 500. [indiscernible] the federal reserve. speaking to some of the challenges that face the bank. the largest u.s. banks co

do you think the fed needs to wait until next year? valdis: respecting central banks independence, it is up to them to decide on their monetary policy. it has been quite consistent. that monetaryar policy alone cannot solve the structural problems. especially if we talk about europe, there are structural reforms to be implemented. with monetary policy, we can only buy time to implement those reforms. we also need to look at structural side of the economy. we cannot spend all the time on monetary policy. francine: how much have you talked to other delegates about political risks? with the new development of vladimir putin in the middle don't like to talk about it. see certain positive factors like low were oil prices -- lower oil prices. riskso see a number of such as the ukraine conflict which leads to instability. we need to take those developers into account, especially in the eurogroup. that?ne: how do you model bewe get into 2016, we will one of the risk factors. it is difficult to quantify. >> you need to do some assessments. it's

news, and let's not forget about the fed. two-day meeting and expectations that we were not see a change in rates. on the earnings news, we see all three major averages rising. i want to check on rates. look at the 10-year note to see what is going on there i had of the fed decision or lack thereof. you can see a little change in the 10-year yield. thisck check on w rip -- crunches the numbers from fed fund futures to figure out what the probability is -- at least with traders think the probability is we will see you rating beats. i think it was you who talk to dan mcmahon who said i want to know those people are because i do not know anyone that raise -- thinks they will raise rates. betty: he said let's smoke them out. let's talk about moving stocks. julie: aig definitely one of them. carl icahn urging the company to break itself up. shares are up by 3.5%. he thinks they should be three different companies -- a property casualty insurer, a life insurer, and one that tax mortgages. ai -- backs mortgages. theyas come out and s

what will happen with the fed in the u.s.lar, a reaction to an ugly payroll number and the federal reserve suggests the global risk is what some of our guests and bloomberg tv had to say. not the charge of making sure investors make money. leads toof money instability, that is the concern. >> our expectation is that they feel pretty good for the majority and will continue to go at some point this year. our guess is more december. it will have an impact on the daughter. complex when an authority says we we data dependent an hour to drivers will be unemployment and inflation, what we say is that inflation numbers have to be solid. we have to see them. there is not much on that right now. to normalize what we do in monetary policy. us, but theahead of small step is there. anemic, irecovery is think the did the right thing not to raise interest rates. jonathan: that is almost it for this hour, manus cranny follows it up. he joins us now. the fed, it did not look like there with a close to hiking at all. high, how didr is they get

. >>> the fed can raise rates despite the figures on friday. the forecast rates have dropped 30%. >>> a tale of two stocks k plus s slumping to the bottom of the stock 600 after the pot -- aash abandons the takeover. >>> glencore says they will listen to takeover offers as a commodity trader appears closer to spinning off some of its agricultural assets. >>> american apparel filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy as they secure restructuring support from 95% of its lenders. >>> so we had a pretty volatile session to close it off on friday. the biggest point swing for the dow since october 2011. moving some 459 points. let's check in on the futures trading, what they're implying with the new start to the week. the s&p 500 looking at gains of 4 points. the dow jones industrials higher by 57 points. the tech heavy nasdaq should be seeing points higher of 20 points. let's check in on the rest of the globe. positive in asia. hiking interest rates. still a very accommodative macro world. like to see the global 3 00s. let's check in on european markets. we a

can it move without the fed moving first? l talk about that. ,"ming up on "countdown volkswagens existential crisis. strong words from the incoming chairman. we will analyze what is next for this scandal-hit company. ♪ guy: these are the stories you need to know about this morning. glencore shares jumped the most on record in hong kong after reports of the commodities trading giant talking to potential buyers for its agricultural business. singapore's sovereign wealth fund and a canadian pension fund are among those interested in buying a minority stake in the business. $10.5it could be worth billion. a canadian company has withdrawn its 7.8 5 billion euro bid for germany's k+s. comes amid a decline in equity markets. the offer had been rejected in july. prices have dropped significantly. run materials down 16% from its peak in may. caroline hyde is here with some calls on k+s in a moment. the u.k. government has announced that it will sell at least 2 billion pounds of lloyds banking group shares to retail investors. the sale

the fed was very aggressive with monetary policy. sically, we provided the sort of monetary policy support the economy needed, but after the initial fiscal program in 2009, the congress when it to a contractionary mode, the sequestration, other budget cuts. budgetary discipline is important, but congress was overshooting and delivering cuts at a time when the economy needed more help. one of the results of that was that with fiscal policy not being helpful, so much fell on the fed, the fed was being asked to do too much. charlie: i will come back to that. did you use all of the tools you had? mr. bernanke: if you go back, we never sent interest rates negative. charlie: you did say you wish you had gone to zero right after lehman. mr. bernanke: i think we made a mistake not cutting rates at the 2008 meeting in december. the reason was the meeting was very short and it was after the lehman failure and we had not had time to reflect on it. over the next couple of meetings, we had cut rates all the way to zero and we were much more aggres

it is important the fed reach that target. judgment they are making is this -- how strong will the economy be? will it grow at a pace sufficient to keep putting people back to work and to have the economy heating up enough that inflation will move back to target? they will be looking at the data on u.s. economy and looking at the global economy, which is the major drag on our recovery. china and the other emerging markets are slow right now. the imf just downgraded their forecast for the emerging markets. that has been a drag on the u.s. economy and the fed has to make an assessment about whether or not the forward momentum is sufficient that we will keep adding jobs and the economy will begin to heat up and get higher wages and meet the inflation target. that is the consideration. what is difficult, you cannot just look out the window. you have to look ahead and try to forecast. charlie: what would you have thought might have been done other than what was done to raise the employment rates to get to 5%? is you were very concer

there is a big negative sentiment about the fed's inaction by notable investors. st wrong? larry: i think they are. we offer for that the economy was stronger and that the right thing to do was to raise rates, but wishing it does not make it so. seven central banks around the world in the last few years have followed the reasoning of the people you quote. things are a bitseven central be better, zero is a problem so we will raise rates. seven central banks that raised rates have had to retreat and pull them right back. fed'ss not what the credibility needs. stephanie, last night, i was in the other side. i thought the right thing to do was to keep rates at zero which is what the fed did. couldsee how last may you reasonably have made the argument there was growing enthusiasm and we had been at zero for a long time and it was time to raise rates. i don't see how you can look at third-quarter growth forecasts that are running at about 1.5%, 1.5% -- that is close to stall speed. when you are at stall speed and you slow down, it is not good what happens next. >> if you

the fed does look outside of the border of the united states. they probably don't want to say that too loudly because there's a lot of politicians back home that say just worry about us. don't worry about the rest of the world but the fed knows they have no choice. >> i'm just wondering the markets right now, what are they telling you? we're on a five day winning streak for the dow. so maybe it wasn't a bear market like people were thinking when we got into that correction phase. >> i think in the u.s. it is not nor was it a bear market. i think china is something of a different story. u.s. we had some difficult cull i in the stock market. we had, i guess, technically a correction but the background was continued growth in employment, a solid u.s. economy. we'll see in the next few weeks how solid the earnings are but they may not be great. china was a whole different story. first the market really tumbled but second of all there are a lot of short-term and long-term questions about their economy and you put a disappointing stock market together

michael: this is a tough call for the fed. 18 million cars were sold. pimm: right, we talked about that yesterday. michael: the gdp numbers that carl talks about shows inventories are going to be a lower and consumer spending looks to be still very strong. carl: it will have its wily coyote-- its wile. e. moment where -- pimm: what's the wile e. coyote moment? carl: it is where they run off the cliff and look down and then fall. michael: we were talking about that consumer -- matt: we were talking about that consumer spending issue with cars and some say it is about sub prime financing. this is a guy who at least on the car side definitely should know. let me ask about interest rates. a lot of people are starting to feel like maybe jim b on go is right. anco is right, maybe the fed is never going to move? michael: japan is japan, they were too slow. rates fromutting earlier from 5% down to 0%, and policy forto the 0% a long time with a lot of guidance, and they also went towards quantitative easing. that is the reason that we are not comparing ourselves

we're in full swing as far as earnings season plus the fed, the fed, the fed, media again. should meet every day. meeting again to discuss interest rates. do we stay at zero or go up a quarter point. jpmorgan asset management analyst good morning. it's the world we're in. we're getting tired of it. god they are a big part of our life. so many mandates. what have they got, three, four dozen? >> it's expanding. you would think it's just the unemployment, inflation mandate. it's everything that's impacting it. the dollar, the international growth. yes, joe, we'll be hearing in december once again talking about the fed and will they or won't they raise rates. we think they are not going to raise rates come october. this is not come this week. this is not the meeting to do it. september might have been it. june might have been it. december might be it. to your point, a lot of things need to line up between now and december. not just the economic data a lot of market data too. market i would say is part of the mandate too. >> yeah. how are things going tienon the island of cyprus

the atlanta fed has a number of indicators, suggesting tightening of the labor market. we will see tomorrow. alix: talking about the atlanta fed, if you look at wages that that they track for men versus women, you are seeing a rise in men's wages. women's are falling slightly, which i don't like. >> the general trend is they are trending up. there is a mystery here white men's are going higher and women's are dipping. the labor market is getting tighter, 5.1, u.s. domestic economy looking better. now we have only the inflation question left. joe: another way of looking at labor market tightness is how long does it take to fill jobs. you point out that it is getting harder to fill. >> it is getting more and more difficult. if it takes an average 27 days also much ab, it is sign of the labor market being quite tight. the fed has the luxury of saying they are not seeing that yet, but an important leading indicator. joe: you talk about how it hit a certain number in the u.k. and just took off. what is the level in the u.s.? >> the fed has been lowering that number. it wasn'