stan fisher told me that yesterday. >> steve, stan fisher told you the reason whiep thy they have meetings is so they can choose not to do anything at a lot of them. thanks. >> sure. >>> off the lows of the day, apple trading below the 100-dollar mark. amazon heading for its sixth straight day of losses. facebook, google, netflix, all of those stocks trading lower. shares of fitbit trading lower today. nearly 50% is the drop for the past six months. let's head out to ces in las vegas where we find john joined by a special guest. over to you. >> james parks, ceo of fitbit. can't pick a better time to talk to you than here at ces when this new smart watch was announced a few days ago. the stock dropped more than 20%. there's a stock market and then there's the product market and what consumers are going to actually do. let's talk about this new watch that you guys have. 200 bucks. five days battery life. it's a bit of controversy on whether people think it's sexy enough to sell. what's your pitch for how this will stand out versus under armor coming in at the bottom end with bands and apple

stan fisher says he thinks the fed will move three-four times, and the market thinks it will not. there is a bit of cognitive dissonance going on. are they going to start doing something different than the last 10 years? street journal, assets are overpriced and so they will fall, difficult to know if or cause economic lowines, but persistence of interest rates contributes to that risk and the possibility of economic instability. what is the prescription? raise interest rates more quickly? >> it is about what they are trying to a college. -- two of accomplished. accomplish. as he points out, we got higher assetption, but we pushed prices to the highest levels, and they will not be stable there, the price of oil, stocks -- they look like they have hit an air pocket. what about a 2008-style downturn? forgotten what a recession looks like? >> the fed has pushed the employment numbers, income looks like it should come through, so maybe this is more like 2000-2 thousand one, a business-investment recession, corporate credit crunch, but not a lot of pain in the housing sector. we could

>> the three or four fed steps stan fisher and janet yellen seem to control, probably are on track ateast in terms of their verbiage. i don't think it is possible to raise interest rates by 100 basis points in this levered economy. and this levered global economy which reflects the stronger dollar. i think the fed at the moment will talk that talk. >> is this a federal reserve that must pay attention to international affairs? >> certainly in the past several weeks and what we have seen with china, they have to take into consideration global affairs and movement of currencies. etc. will they? i think it is number three or four on their list. >> we will drill deeper into china's issues later in the program. we showcase the work slightly debate. coming up, more of the week's top business news, including more bad news for chipotle and vw. ♪ ♪ david: welcome back to "bloomberg best," i'm david gora. our view of the week's top stories begins with a high-powered transportation partnership. >> general motors is getting a major boost to lyft. the detroit-based automaker will invest $500 millio

. >> the three or four fed steps that took stan fisher and janet probablyem to confirm, are on track, least in turn of the verbiage. don't big it's possible to raise interest rates by 100 basis points in this lever global economy, which reflects a stronger dollar. i think the fed, at the moment, we'll talk that talk. tom: they will talk that talk, but with the humility of the first four trading days of the year, even with the 340,000 statistic, with revisions, is this the federal reserve that must pay attention to international affairs? >> i think so. as i mentioned yesterday, they go in and out in terms of their statement or their emphasis on global affairs, certainly in the past several weeks and all we've seen with china. to my way of thinking, they have to take into consideration global affairs and the movement of currencies. will they? i think it's number three or four on their list. financial conditions are probably down the scale, to the extent that market settle. perhaps they will mention it, but not react to it. i think ultimately, they should. >> given that, how do you expla

fed vice chair stan fisher asked about the median forecast if there would be four rate hikes this year and here's how we responded. >> those numbers are in the ballpark. the reason we meet 8 times a year is because things happen and as they happen you want to adjust your policy. otherwise we could meet in january and close down shop until a year later but we have to react. >> he ultimately saw u.s. economic strength this year and in the minutes fed officials said that they expect global risks to recede and even improve this year when it comes to global economies. however the drag on u.s. net exports from a stronger dollar is expected to continue for sometime. there was further dollar depreciation along with greater difficulties from china. lower oil prices spring better than expected consumer spending. most market observers think the fed is going to cause in january and possibly consider the issue again in march if the fourth quarter weakness with gdp were to accelerate and give growth closer to 2%. >> roughly 15 minutes to go until we see the start of an all brand new worldwide exchan

can they go in the ballpark, so to speak, that stan fisher told steve liesman was potentially four rate in this environment? >> no, you have heard me say at most we're going to get two. we certainly are not going to get a rate hike this coming meeting. we may get a couple in the course of the year, but i don't see how they could do four. >> yeah. watching the 10-year as we have this conversation. the yield dropping to 1.93. thanks for coming to the phone. i appreciate it very much. >> thank you, scott. >> mohamed el-erian. do you have a comment? this notion of the fed, what should the fed do? >> a bully pulpit. get up and say something that they still have plenty of arrow this is their quiver to solve some issues if they get totally out of control. >> do you think the fed is part of the problem of what we're witnessing? >> no. >> like sticking to this notion they could go four times this year? >> there's a lot of dots. i said the four "c"s, currency, china, we heard about the emerging markets, but the global marketplace is $75 trillion. the united states is $18 trillion of that. europe

fisher, not stan fisher today. richard fisher, ex dallas fed president. so much shock and astonishment. we front loaded an enormous rally in order to accomplish a wealth affect. what surprised me was the shock wasn't about the honesty of the statement. it was about what it says. david, are you shocked? people have been talking about front loaded and how we've created a helium stock market. why such surprise? >>. >> the offset is that yields have been low, and now that we are getting away from that stimulative fed, yields are where they are. they're still staying low even though the fed is beginning to hike. i think that is the manifestation of at least for the bond market's perspective shock to the system, but when it's going on -- >> i totally agree. >> when the fed is easing -- >> let me interrupt you. my final thought to connect it all. then he was a little bit touchy when sarah talked about the trip wire for much of the activity of 2016 being china. who taught japan or europe how to pull the levers of trying to control outcomes? your final thoughts on

stan fisher said over the weekend it had been a success, the fed's ability to hit that rate. at least for the moment for today we're back on track. a little bit more economic data, we had weaker than expected construction spending, weaker than expected advanced report on the trade, and you can see that the fourth quarter rapid update, the cnbc tracking of all the tracking forecasts out there, fell 0.2%. now it's tracking 1.7% for the fourth quarter with a very wide range, so a lot of disagreement among economists over growth in the just completed fourth quarter from a half a point to 2.5 points and the actual for the third quarter was 2%. let me show you where some of the big houses on wall street are right now. you can see here bank of tokyo, mitsubishi, they're at the top end, 2.5%. credit suisse 2.3%. the atlanta fed followed by a lot of people very weak, weaker still, morgan stanley, 0.5%. guys what we're seeing here is that the fed is able to hit that range, 35, 36, but it's coming amid weaker than expected economic growth and, of course, as you guys are talking about al

talked to stan fisher last week but that was before what we've had in the last week. >> are the fed folksalking too much and risking confusing investors? >> i think it's -- >> transparency -- >> i think transparency is ultimately good. what should happen in the best of all worlds is data comes in and the fed has talked just enough for us to know what they think. it's interesting that the market needs to hear it from the fed and is not going to make its own conclusions. >> they meet again when? week after next. probably nothing going there. >> i think january has never been on the table. there's now a question about march and i'm hearing probabilities around 30% for a rate hike. >> thanks very much. >> oil is bouncing back today. it's rallying about 3% and that's helping to boost stocks as well along with those dovish comments from the fed as we were mentioning with steve. now, wti crude is currently sitting at $31.50. the major averages are up more than 1.5% as well. currently the nasdaq is up nearly 2%. but let's get to brian sullivan for a look at what is coming up on the second hour of

so these dots are consequential for investors and i think what we're hearing, we heard from stan fisherrning, also importantly is the fed is on track to do four rate hikes and we'll be judging whether or not the economy lives up to their expectations and so, therefore, their forecast for rate hikes is up to expectations. >> i hear what you're saying, steve, and, rich, maybe you can jump it on this. i'm not trying to dis the federal reserve. now we have dot plots to pay attention to. kind of like air-traffic control. i just want to know what they're going to do. do you think the dot plots represent or that the fed is accurately forecasting what it's going to do. something else in my mind to glaze over people's eyes because they're sick of the fed because they talk every day. >> way i like to think about it, folks, i think if we get four hikes this year, and i'm with your other guest, our view is we won't get four, we'll get two or three, but if we get four, that's great. it means the economy is surprising on the upside, it means there's increases in wages. the reason why some of us think

don luskin writing in, hey, stan fisher, how's that ballpark working for you now? a reference to an interview with stan where he said four rate hikes was the ballpark. alan sign night writes in, relief depends on a lot better news from china and without some or out, all stocks may stay depressed and interest rates low. from time to time financial markets top straighting on any semblance on valuation thoughts and start trading on fear and nervousness. a lot of economists say what's going on here, whatever is happening with the economic data it doesn't justify what's been happening with the market. >> if we can show the graphic where we compare the number of rate hikes, it was almost three last time. how much time has passed? >> about a month, 30 days. >> frankly that's a huge change, correct? >> they priced one quarter point hike out of the essentially out of the equation for this year. when you see they pushed it ahead to april, there was about -- i want to call it a 50% chance the fed could move in march. that's down to almost nothing. somebody said in one commenta

. >> that's what stan fisher may have added to this mix here is that he seems to care a little bit lessbout -- >> now he did say to me on wednesday, look, we want to do this without creating a mess in the markets and i think they do this by giving warning and following through and doing things. you know, the fed doesn't -- i don't think it's going to be pleased with what's going on right now but at the same time yori don't think from a policy standpoint they can do more than telegraph and deliver. >> and then the other thing too, we're talking about a quarter of a percent increase. even under the fed's guidance we're talking about interest rates moving from 0 to 1%. this is not the kind of moves that really should be -- i think, threatening or worried about threatening the expansion. >> but we're now talking about a much more global economy and much more global world that's more tightly connected and the currency fluctuates and currency moves based on these minor interest rate hikes could have big ripple effects that play out not only overseas but also on our shores. >> you're right but

stan fisher, vice chairman for federal reserve sees rates remaining lower for longer than ultimatelys settle down they'll remain lower than otherwise would have been because of the drags around the global economy and in the u.s. loretta mesays she's comfortabl with the forecast that says rate hikes are likely and john williams did a research paper, san francisco fed president, saying the real rate is probably likely at zero. a lot of talk about china. yesterday it was pointed out there is so much uncertainty about china that only 35 economists are even estimating chinese growth down by 75 because of concerns about the data coming from china and beijing. we have a bit of data coming. friday jobs report. again, looking for strong 200,000 growth in the month of december. that would be down just a little bit from 217. and it's far above what we're hearing here the economy should produce to keep the economic rate steady in the 100,000 to 125,000 range. wages at 0.2%. we're going to get into all of these issues of china later on this morning on "squawk on the street." we'll have a live int

that is stan fisher what weern learning from the growth in the economy right now. of the day, i understand what they did in 2008 into 2009. but this looks like we're trading to 14, 15,000. which had would basically be a 15 multiple and you would be at a more normal environment. i think you set the stage for better growth at that level l. taking out the artificial stimulus dagen . >> that much of an impact, though, if you don't have central banks around the world working in concerts with the fed if they're going in a different direction? >> every man for himself when it is coming down to global growth but what ant nit is hitting nail on the head it was art usually suppressed by central bank and markets is trying to figure that out right now. fed balance sheet 4.5 a trillion dollars. we've done everything possible to stimulate growth. what do we get? we did get asset inflation but now we're trying to figure out do we move from here especially when you look at the commodities and government intervention like anthony said rates at one and a half percent. and they're no

tom: i will speak with chairman fisher on the council of foreign relations in a few days. what is your number one question for stank they have to figure out the implications of a rising dollar on the american economy. it is contractionary. do they want to add to the contractionary impact of a dollar by the fed monetary policy? also looms large. it is not as huge as many people notk, but it plays a role just in the united states but in the markets that we sell to. tom: francine, ellen zentner with that important note from morgan stanley, the idea of the contraction going on right now, even as monetary policymakers are frozen. francine: one of the things we have not been exploring is here in the u k we talk about brexit and the be a wii's hands being tied. -- andin u.s. election the boe's hands being tied. we are in u.s. elections this year. this could have an impact on growth. bob: there are a lot of things abroad that will have an impact on u.s. growth -- the rising dollar weakening, economic performance around the world, and there is a lot of geopolitical instability. of course, the energy sector has been a major