and then another area where all the risk is, mutual funds and etf s. so black rock is very -- >> explain what dead unicorn means. >> mass evaluation because of the potential that they might have. >> right. so like -- >> that's why i come on the show, i learn. >> all the unicorns are dying off. so you have to change the posters in your room. >> our next guest says buyer beware, this a dangerous time for stocks. what is so treacherous, rich, in the charts? >> well, the secret to success in any earnings season, it's not just about the earnings themselves but the expectations for those earnings. and it cuts both ways. the good news is the expectations have come down 7.9% year over year. the bad news is the chart of the s&p reflects the fact that the bar has moved lower. let's look back in time. you see coming out of the august flash crash, we get a 13% pral rally. first quarter, we know how the year started. and then we have the furious rally in into the end of the quarter and it brings us right back to where we fell oof the cliff there. so the expectation

our data team crunched the numbers to find out which s&p stocks and etf securities actually outperform when the vix rallies. turns out no s&p stocks do particularly well, but stocks in traditional defensive sectors like health care and consumer staples hold up best, like allergan, dollar tree, and a few others. the etfs that do well include the tlt 20-year treasury bond etf, and the iau gold trust. no surprise there. the so-called fear indicators rallying altogether. for more, go to cnbc.com and check out cnbc pro. >>> the latest on the fallout from the panama papers. the u.s. justice department is reviewing the leak from a law firm which revealed the financial arrangements of global politicians and public figures. specifically, the doj will look into whether or not the findings point to evidence of corruption. separately, in iceland a record number of protesters taking to the streets to demand the resignation of the prime minister, who allegedly benefitted from offshore investment accounts in tax havens. this story likely to ramble on. no hard evidence yet released thus far. >> well,

the s&p, biotech, etf still down 40% from the highs last year. up about 25% from the lows.ig biotech reporting this week. big expected moves. these are three of the largest names in the space. amgen expected to move 3% in any direction. when you do the math, you know, it's $3.5 billion, $3.3 billion, $5.5 billion. here's the thing. if this sector is going to get back on its horse in a very difficult regulatory and political environment, it will need these big names to do it. the either direction moves to go to the up side, or see the xpi probably making a move back for those prior lows. >> amgen is more after the bell. look at the fourth quarter a few months ago. they crushed eps. they raised guidance, 12 times forward earnings. it's cheap. whether the stock goes up or not, i don't know. but i think amgen is one of the best in the space. >> up next, final trade. stay tuned. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you

instead of just getting out, s&p capital iq argues a rotation strategy is better. they recommend buying the etfs for consumer staples and health care, two defensive sectors that tend to outperform may to october. then switching into the s&p 500 from november through may. the bottom line is if you want to do a seasonable play, rotate, don't just go to cash. by the way why does the s&p tend to underperform in sum mores? it's not clear bit likely due to the summer holidays when trading volume traditionally drop, as does investment banking activities. on the other hand there's more people investing money in the new year from tax refunds or to fund an ira. i'm bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. >>> as jackie mentioned oil prices didn't go away in april, they surged. prices were a few pennies lower today but in the month of april they were up about 20%. that is the largest one-month gain in a year. >>> iran has asked the united nations secretary-general ban to intervene after the u.s. supreme court ruled that $2 billion in frozen iranian assets must be paid to american victims of attacks blame

highs, and why it is different last year to this year, and this is the one that is the s&p, and the equal weight of the etfomponents to make them the same, and when you look at what is going on here, you can see that it is not a fang situation or not like nine companies driving all of the performance, a and you are seeing a lot of performance from the mid-caps or the smaller s&p companies and the small caps are better, and this is indicative of that. a this is a switch over to all country index, and the etff version, and because i am lazy i did not want to look up the index before sending in the charts, and this is why it is important and this is a global phenomenon, and we had huge headwinds of energy and u.s. dollar depressing massive areas of the global markets and those trends have reversed this spring, a maybe not permanently, but you are seeing a lift in europe, and the emerging markets, and lift in asia, and that is again going to lend more e credence to what we are seeing with the s&p 500, and last chart, the efa, and here we are looking at the global developed markets, and xus and we rare looking

some of the worst performing sectors in the s&p 500, retail sector, oil services. etf movers.ower by 3%. and the materials spider lower by 1.75%. >>> even on a down day, we got to find some opportunity, maybe lower prices or better entry point. let's do street talk. five analyst calls you need to hear about. stock call number one, mattel. jpmorgan starting coverage with an overweight, analyst says they're positive on the toy industry overall. they think toy business growth will be led by continued parent focus on early childhood development and strong international growth. their target, 38 bucks, 15% upside and begin coverage on hasbro, but with a neutral rating. >> second sector, apple, cutting price target on the stock to $130. that's down from $141. the analyst says he no longer expects apple to return to revenue growth this fiscal year. forecast of 4% decline in revenue for the year. >> are you allowed to cut your target price with apple? sketchi sketchi skechers. like a game show there are prizes behind all three doors. door number one, growth domestically and internation

etf's? jon: it is very cyclical. in the late 1990'shen the market was on a terror driven by speculative stock, that was a hard environment for managers. they protected you when the market got sloppy in 2000-2002, 2008-2009. it is the ride you get when you go with active managers that may be more important than sibley whether they deliver you better performance. david: the message i took away was sometimes active managers over perform, sometimes they underperform. perhaps the best approach is to have all your money in neither. i'm not sure it really matters as much in terms of making a decision. ,f they are underperforming now realize this is not an environment that is conducive to what they do. they do better in environments that are more broad. environments like we've been in where the biotech's are leading the market by a big margin, 10 tend not to be the most speculative companies -- they tend not to be the most speculative companies. ,hen they are underperforming you are not disappointed with what you are getting because you realiz

s&p. >> would you have the trade on? >> i give a lot of credit. it came on "fast money" a couple of weeks ago, when the etf was lower.e said this is going to turn. what he is targeting here, and what mike is targeting, is the move back to the down trend. that's how i would play it. i wouldn't try to get all geeked up and think it's going the bust through there. it's a bad trend. and the ibb is down 30%. it outperformed the s&p. i like your call spread. >> you could see that in caterpillar. that was a long-term downtrend. a big sharp bounce off the bottom. going into earnings if you decide to play it for a bullish play. you got your head taken off. you want to do it be a risk-limiting way. that's why we use the call spread. >> got a question, send us a tweet. and for everything options action, check out our website. while you're there, sign up for our cool newsletter. it's like the "vanity fair" of options. here's what's coming up next. ♪ everybody is kung fu fighting ♪ >> that sums up what happened to microsoft. why some traders see a rebound coming. >>> plus, stocks have gone up forever. >> forever ever, forever eve

s&p 500 or the dow, this is the place where people can put their money. i'm involved in creating the essential 40 companies in the united states, like a new type of etf. where are people supposed to put and trust their money? trust it in government bonds yielding sub 2%? you know with the companies, with the -- i view the market as more of, there's no other place to put your money at this point. anthony: boone pickens and mark fisher, thank you for joining us. we'll be back next week, and two weeks "wall street week" is heading to the salt conference in las vegas, we'll bring you expertise from top leaders in finance, politics and entertainment. friday, may 13th. you won't want to miss it. savings whiplash. you know, from car insurance companies shouting, "save $500 bucks over here." "no, save $300 bucks over here." "wait, save $400 bucks right here." with so many places offering so much buck saving, where do you start? well, esurance was born online, raised by technology, and majors in efficiency. so, they're actually built to save you money, and when they save, you save. that's auto and home insurance for the modern world. esurance, an allstate comp

the s&p, the market as a whole still below its down trend line. xli, the spider etfversing that down trend. nice double bottom here. nice reversal. good market behind it as well. we think xli ends up making new highs with the market. >> ari, when you say break out to new highs, what sort of highs are we talking about on the broader index? >> our year end target is $22.50 by year end. we think there is nice up side here. we think you should be positioned for that. yes, we're overbought, but don't miss the forest for the trees here. the back drop is supportive of markets after two years of flat performance. spring coils, unwound to the up side, you want to have exposure to equities there. >> ari, thank you. ari wald of oppenheimer. forest for the trees, springs on coils. >> a couple things, my biggest problem with the broader market, the s&p if you assume $120 in earnings, eps, you're at a 17.5 multiple, in an environment that i don't think warrants a 17.5 multiple. number one. there is the pantheon of greatness on the smart board. >> pantheon. >> you like that? >> yea

s&p stock this week. the emerging markets etf has seen a rise of 13% just this past month.ma modi is back to see if these good times to continue to roll in april. >> there's a heated die bait brewing over whether this emerging market rally will last. most long term investors will say this is a short term trade given that at some point the fed will have to raise rates and those countries will be under pressure. timing is really key. in the meantime, dovish fed weaker dollar helped india and china and russia and brazil outperform. brazil up a whopping 16%, posting the biggest monthly gain since october of 2002. benefitting from the rebound in commodities and rising expectations that president rousseff will be ousted. with some investors, like brown brothers saying they have run their course as the impeachment process will take some time. in mid april they will vote on whether to impeach rousseff. they need two thirds before the vote moves to the senate. politics will continue to be in focus for brazil in this month. also keep an eye on economic data from china after industria

s&p 500 or the dow, this is the place where people can put their money. i'm involved in creating the essential 40 companies in the united states, like a new type of etf. where are people supposed to put and trust their money? trust it in government bonds yielding sub 2%? you know with the companies, with the -- i view the market as more of, there's no other place to put your money at this point. anthony: boone pickens and mark fisher, thank you for joining us. we'll be back next week, and two weeks "wall street week" is heading to the salt conference in las vegas, we'll bring you expertise from top leaders in finance, politics and entertainment. friday, may 13th. you won't want to miss it. we've talked about anything that affected people and their money. from fox business headquarters and new york city, the new "wall street week." anthony: welcome to "wall street week," the show of record for the long-term investing, i'm anthony scaramucci. >> and i'm maria bartiromo in this weekend for gary kaminsky. good to see you, anthony.

s&p 500 or the dow, this is the place where people can put their money. i'm involved in creating the essential 40 companies in the united states, like a new type of etf. are people supposed to put and trust their money? trust it in government bonds yielding sub 2%? you know with the companies, with the -- i view the market as more of, there's no other place to put your money at this point. anthony: boone pickens and mark fisher, thank you for joining us. we'll be back next week, and two weeks "wall street week" is heading to the salt conference in las vegas, we'll bring you expertise from top leaders in finance, politics and entertainment. friday, may 13th. you won't want to miss it. [vet] two yearly physicals down. martha and mildred are good to go. here's your invoice, ladies. a few stops later, and it looks like big ollie is on the mend. it might not seem that glamorous having an old pickup truck for an office... or filling your days looking down the south end of a heifer, but...i wouldn't have it any other way. look at that, i had my best month ever. and earned a shiny new office upgrade. i run on quickbooks. that's how i own it. go. >>> as hot sp

s&p 500 or the dow, this is the place where people can put their money. i'm involved in creating the essential 40 companies in the united states, like a new type of etf. people supposed to put and trust their money? trust it in government bonds yielding sub 2%? you know with the companies, with the -- i view the market as more of, there's no other place to put your money at this point. anthony: boone pickens and mark fisher, thank you for joining us. we'll be back next week, and two weeks "wall street week" is heading to the salt conference in las vegas, we'll bring you expertise from top leaders in finance, politics and entertainment. friday, may 13th. you won't want to miss it. poor mouth breather. allergies? stuffy nose? can't sleep? take that. a breathe right nasal strip instantly opens your nose up to 38% more than allergy medicine alone. shut your mouth and say goodnight, mouthbreathers. breathe right. help individualize our cancer treatment? now through advanced genomic testing, we may be able to pinpoint and diagnose what makes your cancer different, which can reveal precise treatment options that were not considered previously. with this impo

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there's nothing really cheap, the xop chrks is the oil and production etf everybody watches is up about 8%. that's handily outperforming the s&p 500 right now. it's only up about 2%. and everybody's modeling 2017 numbers. nobody's even using 2016. the p/e ratios are crazy in 2016. everybody's assuming oil's going to be $60 in 2017 and they got the numbers more in line with historical averages. we have the same problem with industrials. this week we turn from the banks towards industrials. i love when this happens because we'll get illinois tool works, textron and general electric and honeywell. they might have the chance of hitting new highs. but the positives right now are the lower dollar. that's definitely -- a big, big tailwind for the market overall. and let's worry about a u.s. and global recession. the negatives right now i think is very low at top and bottom line growth we're still talking 2% or 3%. not a lot there for a lot of these stocks. remember, they've already had those tailwind for lower fx and already had a nice move on the upside. remember they're not cheap here, 16 or 17 times forward earnings if you look

s&p. julie: would this have performed that way when they introduced a? eric: just assume that they have outperformed. it.nnot look out nobody will launch an etf. julie: this is the one you're just describing. the other one is a crowd investment etf. is there methodology similar to the others? eric: they said we will base this on the wisdom of the crowd. so, they have an app which you can sign up for. there are 500 users. of people vote on stocks. they vote on one per month. they are like antagonistic. actuallythe crowd is unbiased. that is the thing. some people can finance. some people do not. basically, they're trying to get a sample of the crowd. then, they'll put the stocks in their that the crowd votes on. in a way, this is all dependent on the one app. other one goes out into the wilderness and scrapes data all over the place. a little different, but the same time is that the sentiment is weighted. i'll send it back to mark barton. mark: thank you. still ahead, who will be talking with the fed reserve bank of dallas robert kaplan to get his insight on the state of the global economy where the fed might move to hike interest rates. that i

if you look at volatility on the high-yield bond etf versus the earlier in the year, the volatility for the price shot way up. a lot more than the s did not happen in august. i think a lot of what we had stems from the bond market, concerns that those types of issues in energy were spread. alix: great stuff, thank you, oliver renick. scarlet: we have some headlines on apple that could be hurting the stock. ramy: right now, according to review, apple says it will maintain a lower production of the iphone in the june her. -- quarter. right now, down 1%, trading at $111. we will continue to monitor what is happening here, but the trend has been or concern over apple shares ever since the past quarter or two. maybe people are just not buying as much, in terms of iphones, as much as they were expecting. alix: thank you. part of that is, you have slow sales of the iphone 6 and 6 plus, which is causing them to rejigger their inventory. scarlet: shares of their suppliers are lower as well. companies are falling in reaction to this report. we will continue to monitor that for you as well. alix: much more coming up. ♪ alix: you are watching

etfs are giving investors, they don't want to pay the high fees. lack of transparency and the underperformance. liz: buffett is on your side, he'll always win if you go into the s&p inde get to your favorites right now. you like guggenheim. power shares, footsie, u.s. 1,000. looking at those two, tell us what the threat is that is common here. that would help our investors. >> bob's point, if you buy s&p 500 and happens to be a beg weight with equal weight, 500 stocks having equal weight with the going again him rsp they are equally participating in performance as opposed to top 10 stocks on owning 18 percent of the allocation. cap weighted indexes. really are old, we're doing a shift with the smart beta movement and more and more coming on. smart beta was grandfather of smart beta 10 years ago with rob and ftse rafi. fundamental investing and value investing come to the etf marketplace. they have done a fantastic job. liz: 970 hedge funds closed shop past couple years. it is very difficult to say, active managers that you pay a lot of money to, do better than index. tom lieden of etf trend.com. looks like closing bell rings. we do not hold the 18,000 level. [c

s & p bank index. that's where we saw the spike higher. the kbb is at etf and it's up by more than 1%.s a definite spike higher on this. immediately, when i just took a look at the screen, the immediate interpretation is there is a hike and it's coming. >> let me give you the normal caveat. be careful about interpreting the markets interpretation of the fed. >> of course. >> in the first couple minutes. right now, there are no human beings running the market. it is allal garon antibiotics. >> you have a human right here. >> let's get to the human down at the new york stock exchange. >> he is really human? >> i believe so. >> i'm not sure. i am not sure. >> dom? >> i'm a robot, guys. >> we know that, the way you work. simon, i'm sitting next to simon hobbs. i think we agree that i'm a robot sometimes. i don't know if i'm really. there. >> hey, hey. >> simon is yelling at me right now. i'll say this, though. to your point about whether or not it's computers and what not trading it, a lot of professionals tell you the first few moments after this release or before a release are really goi

etf report. sandra: how do i make that transition? i will try. we are talking about s&p sbh.his is up 3.2% for the week. that's almost tripled the return on benchmark s&p 500 this week. the outperforming that we are seeing in there, the national association pending home sales index, a key gauge of future housing activity. 7-month high this week. some of the standouts. homes up 8%. and lenar up 4%. big gains to report there. tgif, everybody, more mornings with maria after the break maria: welcome back, good friday morning, everybody. i'm maria bartiromo, it's friday april 1st. job's day. brand new fox business network polls are out this morning. ted cruz with a big lead over donald trump in wisconsin. driving cruz to the top evangelicals, conservative voters and republican women. he wins donald trump. >> there's no doubt that donald trump is the celebrity. maria: trump called the meeting productive last night. >> we met and they have very good people, a terrific meeting, i think. it's really a unity meeting. they wanted to dismiss meeting and i like discussing unity too. maria