president or the incoming president is the continuation really of the previous policies keeping the macro economyd and allowing the private sector to just fill in the void and allow the economy to grow. we still need to fill in the blanks. we do not exactly know what the incoming policies will be. scarlet: north korean leader kim jong un announced the country's first five-year plan since the 1980's. tom mackenzie travelled to pyongyang to cover the party congress. he looked at the economic changes. tom: the old economy still dominates in north korea. vast factories churning out basic products. like this copper cable maker in pyongyang. the company exports some commodities, though far fewer since china has banned most imports in line with u.n. sanctions. it makes money by sending laborers abroad and relies heavily on agriculture. new buildings have sprung up, there are more cars on the road and there are -- is a growing choice of restaurants. we got to ride and his city taxi, operated by one of the countries government controlled cab firms. the transport system has seen minor upgrades. we are insi

what do auto sales tell us about the macro economy here?inder that last month was a bit of an aberration, secondly, when we get the retail sales number later in the month, for overall retail sales, they were probably show a pretty strong again. aided and assisted by the fact that gasoline prices have gone up. as far as initial claims go, they keep reminding us, the u.s. labor market is very, very tight. at the top end, jumps the people would like, but nevertheless, we are getting to that stage where there is a shortage of labor. market, mentioned labor that is one area that has been a bright spot for the u.s. economy. also, up until that report looking very strong. what about the weaker areas, manufacturing on monday? comingsee a turnaround around with the weak dollar, that will finally see rebounding u.s. manufacturing? think a weaker or stronger dollar will make that much difference to the u.s. economy or manufacturing sector. when you look at the provisional gdp data, investment from the mining and energy sector ,educted .66 percentage p

from the macro economy point of view, about energy investment, it has gone down so far.ll the foot have gone down so far. anything that looks like price stabilization here probably means that drag will stay. i think the outlook is weak, but we will lose the drag that has been placed on the economy in the last few years. us.cine: stay with this is the picture of oil as we head to break. a six-month high. boosting some of the mining companies. the euro is down. ♪ francine: this is surveillance. it is a live pictures of capitol hill. fed,ed to talk about the that's one of the main conversations we've been having and if they will be able to raise interest rates. let's get to the first word news. vonnie: speculation is ramping up about donald trump's running mate. gingrich said he would be interested. ben carson tells the washington post that sarah palin it, ted cruz, marco rubio are all on the list. ben carson is involved in the vice presidential search. hillary clinton will have a job for her husband. she says the former president will be in charge of revitalizing the econo

driveny opinion, it is more by the macro economy than the exchange rates.porting a little less competitive. back, andiving japan it must go there, is a shortage domestic savings. fthe cover-up deficit is so big, they have to do some interesting. as the population gets older, they are joined down tom: -- -- trying down there savings. say, 5-6 days ago on the yen. there is dollar strength in the recent rollover with the dollar, weakness, and recent strength we have seen. is this a currency war? >> it is not strictly speaking a currency war. we have right now a lot of people blaming the currency for other things that are happening. people in europe like to see a cheaper euro. there withoutis regard to the currency. the currency is facing on the cake. tom: quickly, dx why, are you longer short dollar? >> more short than not. i actually like cold. tom: what is your target on m cold chuckle >> you are talking something close to 1500 easily. tom: we will talk about that here. coming up, we continued discussion across bloomberg television with pimco. stay with us.

the macro economy calls for the fed to raise interest rates.d resident joined the chorus and says he sees two or three rate increases this year depending on how the economic data pans out. alix: all the talk is commentary. it has driven a surge in the 10 year yield and according to your next guest, yields will climb higher. he is the chief economist at stephen stanley and says yields tol drop to -- will jump 2.8% which is the second-most errors call. he joins us now. call haske a bond/bear been here for years. >> that's fair enough. alix: why is this the moment? >> i think the fed officials really mean it this time. the economy has improved and has been for a long time and the fed has been patient and the later couple of times because of the market hiccups last summer and again on the winter. i think they have now found they have fallen behind the curve so they are talking about 2-3 rate hikes which is more than what was priced into the market. scarlet: along with that, you see inflation picking up to 2.5%? >> i think the headline could pick up

get rid of some of these speed bumps and start to hit the economy eating their investor confidence, if you can smooth this out with better macro credentials, may the economy can grow more smoothly. maybe that 6% he was talking about could be more sustainable, and with that debt overhang, sustainability is so important to china's future. francine: thank you so much. let's continue the conversation on china with peter dixon, the global financial regulator at commerzbank. great to see you. there is nothing fundamental that has changed, apart from this extra stimulus, giving a little bit of impact on growth. and i think china has been a source of concern for policymakers for a long time. we are now talking about debt. numbers,k at the china's debt to gdp ratio is on par with that of japan. that if there is some form of correction deleveraging, it will have a far bigger impact on the economy. obviously the authorities are trying to make sure that the degree of the collapse is far less brutal than perhaps it might otherwise be. i am not sure that i witnessed a silly think we could escape the isd landing and larry fink right to raise

anything other than very accommodative and we will use macro prudential measures -- that's what you would look like if you took it at face value. with the economymacro takes the weight you see this in a number of areas around the world at the moment. >> yeah. i wouldn't be looking for a turnaround; whether we get not, byrate cut or the end of this year -- pretty convinced that we have another cut coming in australia. -- when you look at where policy goes, then what? because 175 can become 125. they have room to cut if they need, if the economy requires it. but i think they would love the currency to be weaker. i can think there's anything the rba would mind about reversing more of the currency. guy: so when you look at what is going to move, how much of it is going to be domestic? how much will be rba, china? there are silly forces in that story, and you start to get china doing better or worse -- put the international perspective over top of it. >> when china is doing better, when the fed is dovish, 175 may feel low to some people, but it is high relative when commodity prices are stable. it tends to rise. what the army has effectively been do

if the economy's rebound on macro the their supreme leader or the federal reserve would have done what they did. to declare that it is all down worthless. you might get arrested the you could keep it in the basement to egypt during a famine. you cannot pronounce it worthless the fed has worth. you could confiscate that but that is a more difficult task. there were nine previously existed. click click click there is the second of novak will be created. it with the same concept of monday it periodically my head cannot pay grab what was going on. consider the indian rupee. if you have to intact serial numbers. and with the two serial numbers is fine. and the save in india. and must be replaced with the different one. it is difficult to find anyone it is clearly visible in -- intact. node of expects to do business will except in a. and if people just accepted it will be would have to go to the bank all. in to be taped together even with his face on it. and i will take get. which is why i will take a. so therefore perpetuate the whole phenomenon. so in somalia the opposite was happening blo

one of the macro themes in the economy and already drifting into the election how much weakness there is around the globe. china is a huge question mark. trying to manage a soft landing there but unclear whether they can really do that. what do you think about that piece of this puzzle? >> also pretty expensive to open a park like that in the short run. it doesn't become really big generator of cash until down the road. there is some potential it could pull visitors from hong kong. everything i see about shanghai, analysts think it will do well. it is hard to get read on it. some are looking at search traffic in china and showing gigantic gains in people looking for information on disney shanghai. it suggested it will be very probable. i spoke with bob iger a couple months ago and he told me, remember, this is just a foothold for us in china. this is the way we wanted to plant our flag. there is a lot more money to be made in china beyond this park. this helps getting brand in terms of selling merchandise and putting people in front of movies and so forth. melissa: speaking of movers

macro sentiment? guest: the important thing about china is the chinese economy and chinese financial markets and the two often moved together at all -- don't often moved together at all. when the stock market was rising up, the economy was not doing that well. then the stock market crashed in the economy was weakening, but not to that extent. defaultsr of corporate are rising and some of the things you see in the fixed income state. the market problems in terms of debt are beginning to come to a boil. scarlet: what happened at the end of last summer through chinese officials for a loop. they thought they had a handle on things and it spiraled out of control. what did they learn from the august valuation versus what did investors learn? guest: it was a desperate measure to prop up the economy. i think china had the right intentions, but the implementation did not go well, starting with a 2% devaluation. it said exactly the wrong signal to the market and the lack of communication 36 hours later was a big problem. have done, they better but they have a long way to go. the charts looking at showing the vola

but in terms of other macro issues affecting the economy, something that might actually help is the weakerbiggest peers. you mite want to look at what's been happening with the yen. in just over the last 18 months you can see that very recently we are talking about a yen that has hit an 18-month high versus the dollar. that's been happening at the same time that the dollar's also relatively weaker against the euro. things like that certainly help american exporters, companys that are looking to sell their goods overseas when you see a weaker dollar that's a much bigger gain for them. it's a tailwind versus the headwind that the stronger dollar had been for most of the last year or longer. now, buffett talked about berkshire's relationship with that too. and when it comes to berkshire, its relationship with currencies it's a little more complicated. >> we have exposure to -- we do business so much all over the world that i don't really know whether it's good or bad for us when a currency moves because we have lost reserves for insurance that are payable in euros, pounds, yen. and we have so

overall: while the macro environment remains uncertain, we are nicely positioned to benefit from any rebound in the global economyat the same time, we will continue to manage our business, capitalize on key growth areas in front of us. emily: how would you say he is doing so far infilling john chambers' big shoes? are indeed big shoes. john is a legend and took cisco from a small company to the behemoth it is. chuck is a smart guy. i have gotten to know him a little bit. he is great at execution and will take time to develop his real vision for the company, and this is a tech company. in the world of technology, you need a vision, and you need to execute. the vision is still largely the vision that chambers had cut out, but i think chuck is carving his path nicely. we need to give him more time to really turn it into his baby. you said cisco has been in there shall-challenged. how do they overcome that? they have this huge base of people who are basically networking people. going forward, as we look at things like cloud and internet of things, they will not necessarily be the same people. cisco needs to maintain

economy that very minute. when i wrote let's. get rich quickly. it was the macro information could move stocks regardless of the individual companies. the answer? only one piece of information mattered that much. the labor department's monthly labor figures that came out on friday when the numbers were what printed, that's what we call it. the big buyers and sellers couldn't figure them out. could we have job growth that was not as strong as it had been? but there was very little impact from one sector to another. was it conceive panel traders, and believe me, it is all traders box stick with the industrial companies no matter what happened? the industrials didn't perform poorly on friday. some dislocation in the once loved generic. clearly from kellogg that showed genuine slowing in the business. people didn't want those stocks. so no real conclusive judgment. i think it was made on friday and everything went up. then this weekend, china's trade numbers came out and they were just plain disappointing. imports were down there 18 straight months. ouch. these number

haven't been able to gel, for a variety of relationships, i just think in the macro, the horse we're riding, meaning the u.s. economy kind of running out of track. if it was an airplane it is running out of runway. we've ridden the fundamentals of the current economy pretty well. wages are stagnant. we're creating skrobs but there is a lot of asterisks there. the growth has been small. the business cycle is so long in the tooth it makes a dinosaur bone look like a small fossil. i do think it is kind of normal. there knees to be a replenishment. maybe nova elections will do that. but is anybody shocked that brick and mortar is finally starting to show the signs of cracks that we've been talking about for many quarters. >> on a day that the u.s. dollars weak and oil is up, is it particularly worrying we're seeing such a big sol selloff in stocks. those two factor have supported stocks in recent weeks. >> historically they have. i think there is much bigger macro considerations. that is what's driving markets today. people are looking cautiously and thinking consumers aren't spending as mump as we thought. therefore th

would include this as a relatively newer or newly recognized pressure in a zero bound economy that's creating a global macro problem that exacerbate adh effects. i should just show this because it's skra's slide. this is just a slide from jay showing the extent of current account imbalances. there's the 8% germany surplus and the ims sustainability target showing some currencies are undervalued, some are overvalued. even while china is just about appropriately valued, it doesn't mean everybody else is. so just closing here, and here i would like to make a proposal to my friends at the peterson institute, to fred, to adam posen, if you're listening, adam, which is that i think we have a real difficulty with free trade agreements. i like many others, and i think this has come out of gordon and hanson, i think there's a big difference between trade and globalization, which can be and should be a force for good, and free trade agreements which have become a process by which stakeholders often from a sector that doesn't represent working people, are having too much influence. and so i would argue that the fta pr

economy. i think europe is better than it was. i think the u.s. is still growing. i think that the macros ok. -- of course a geopolitical risk a run oil, risk around oil, saudi arabia. francine: what is your plan b for brexit if it happens? >> we are not ready to discuss that publicly but we will cope. francine: after that warning in march, credit suisse was the worst-performing stock in europe but today scanning some 6%. let's get straight to michael moore. great to have you on the program. when i spoke to tidjane thiam he sounded very confident. he could not quite call the end of the sanguine market but he does feel a lot more comfortable. is there anything that analysts should worry about in what we found out today? michael: i think the worry is that is going to be more of a slog. --hink they were protecting predicting confidence in their plan because they had to change the plan in march so i think they wanted to project that they are back on track, that it is just going to be more of the cutting story. surprise better than a is what you got a couple of months ago. they arederstand sp

macro lens. drags on the u.s. economy and drag. m&a is down. getting busted by the justice department. >> by the wayewe have to talk a starwood marriott. what are you doing as a function of all this? >> we're cautious. on the investment profile we've bought $8 billion of apartments in the last six months, but we are being cautious. we're looking through the wreckage. we like this. we like uncertainty. >> are you saying we got a 10% down, 5%? or you say we think it will be flat. >> the u.s. economy? kind of like what you see. it will pick up after the election, i think. household formation is good. housing will be okay. apartment rents are going up. there are pockets of weakness. new york city is weak. san francisco is turning over because of the tech bubble bursting -- or deflating. >> have you putting any money -- >> we've bought, nashville is strong. seattle is strong. denver is strong. portland is on fire. southern california. florida is pausing because of the exit. long time we like it a lot. you see in the property markets the results of t

macro picture from the fed. dallas fed resident robert kaplan said the u.s. economy is moving to full i employment.aking in houston, he push the case for not raising rates. >> we should try to normalize as fast as we can. but the secular forces mean i think it will be slow, and gradual over a period of time. that is what i will be likely advocating. so that is what i think you will see happen over the next short period of time. anna: chris watling, ceo and chief market strategist at longview is still with us. of thewhat do you make comments you have been getting from the fed recently? you would have to be under a rock really, in a market sense, to not have heard the fairly hawkish message coming through. chris: i think it is pretty clear they want to move rates up. it is understandable, given some of the data they have seen. payroll, wage inflation, labor costs are rising a bit and so on. had some good housing data earlier this week. i think it is pretty clear message, across the board i would say. and we have not really heard it from janet yellen, we heard from dudley, normally about as dovish as

economy specifically in south africa. and in nigeria, which he said are part of this macro hurricane story as he called it. those shares traded on the pink sheets here. but of course, on the johannesburg exchange, i believe looked to be showing a dip down. we'll see what happens as the markets open tomorrow as well. >> thanks so much, kate kelly. got to go to the ambassador to trade this one. fundamentally, the back drop in south africa, mining country. >> stock trading about 12 times earnings. $17 billion company u.s. to me, again, it's exposure in nigeria, exposure across that region where we know those are oil economies that are stumbling here. the total consumer story to me is really why you're buying it. companies like this are allowing these guys to leave technology. i don't have a position. obviously chenos has made a lot of money short big companies, and done a good job with it. this is more of a consumer consumption play. outside of their balance sheet i think will continue to do fine. >> we should note this is mtn group, the south african tellcom company. did you see that initial tick lower? >> r

macro conversation. that will influence the policy maker ability. the inability of simple economics to change the direction of the economy.ture.ge i do not think that liquidity is the answer. thatthink that you nailed never was so much spent and so little. next structure is the rumor of the weekend. a negative andy the previous increase. down andnitely slow it add to inflation. not the right sort. i do not think that the japanese have 18 to unlocking this. we will see pedestrian rates for the next two years. >> good to have you this morning with the analysis. this will be a little bit weaker today. the ceo with british land. . . show me top new artist. ah, ha ha. show me top male artist. my whole belieber fan group. it's not a competition, but if it was i won. xfinity x1 lets you access the greatest library of billboard music awards moments, simply by using your voice. the billboard music awards, live sunday may 22nd, 8/5 pacific, only on abc. ♪ welcome to "on the move." we are counting you down to the european equity market. i am guy johnson. why did the u.s. curve flattened so much? we are joined by one of the biggest n

a better and more comprehensive picture of the economy and is a powerful unifying force between accounting finance and economics. it links micro with macro and it appeals to all of the major schools of economics. it's the missing piece of the prosperity puzzle which is the latest issue and they talk about the latest problems which i'm sure will come up in this discussion but in any case, my argument that this is a unifying approach in a more comprehensive picture is a tall order so i would like to get started. i actually see this as a paradigm shift in the way we treat macro economics. so, we start off with the basics. what is gdp, what is it supposed to measure. annual spending is one way of looking at it. consumers, government and business. cig is the way they normally talk about it in classes and there's a problem with gdp. but the one i want to focus on in particular is according to gdp statistics, what drives the economy and so what we find out when you break down the gdp, you see that it breaks down to consumer spending is the biggest sector of the government spending second in the business spending third. what does that say in ter

economy down. revival has supported the high-end property market. that's why we've seen some macro credentials members. a lot of the third and fourth tier cities have got a lot of oversupply. we will see further measures. all of that fits in with the longer-term policy that needs to come through. there is an urbanization of china. i think it's been slow to much. we will see more physical stimulus. are -- does beijing have the support of the regional power cities? do they have the support of shanghai? western cities? do they have the support of hong it.? janet: i miss that the grand knowledge that my chinese speaking colleagues hampered they have a strong central government administration in china. in the same way, local governments overshoot or under deliver policy reforms and the way stimulus is delivered. policy is set by the federal government. coming up from the london school of economics, will join us. we are thrilled to have him on today. ♪ francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. tom keene is in new york. are's sales growth that the estimate. profit came in short of expecta

macro strategy at state street. we will talk brexit and other risks out there as well. stay with "the pulse." sluggish growth, no inflation, and the stock market heading lower. japan's economy heads sideways. leaders 300 business write a letter in favor of brexit, we ask that you k's biggest is news lobby group. oil producers have had their credit ratings cut. we will ask what the future holds for the middle east in a world of low oil prices. ♪ let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash with nejra cehic. nejra: phillips is seeking to from the million euros ipo of its lighting unit. the company is planning to sell 37.5 million shares. that values the unit at as much as 3.3 8 billion euros. this could come as early as may 27. philips shares are lower in today's train. konecranes plans to acquire a lifting business from terex for about $1.3 billion. the finland-based company will pay cash and $19.6 million in materials terex's handling and poor solutions business. the u.s. crane maker abandoned talks with chinese zoomilon to buy the rest of the company. telecom italia has reduced its target to 1.6 billion euros. italy's largest phone company is cuts will be split betwe

economy. i think europe is better than it was. i think the u.s. up and down, but still growing. is ok. think the macro is geopolitical risk, which you worry about. around oil, saudi arabia and other parts of the world, things like the migration crisis in europe that can triggered unexpected results in elections and things like that. but that's i say that is the way of the world. francine: what is your plan b for brexit? >> look, we are not ready yet to discuss that publicly. but i think we will cope with that. you have been pretty outspoken about donald trump. you're attracted to donald trump because he will change. my question to you, don't we need to know what he is going to change to? has he really told us? >> i understand the question. i, too, have some doubts. but i also know if i do not get donald trump with change, not knowing change, what it is, i am going to get hillary clinton. ok, now, tell me, who are you going to vote for? there's no way you can vote for her. she has a ready told you. the other day she said, march 16 -- i want to shut down all caoal mines. the most stupid statement on ene

let's start macro and see if you can explain this bifurcated economy that has a -- always threateningand we're barely threatening to break over .5% gdp. >> i know. it's -- i think it's a tale of two cities. the u.s. economy, i think, is recovering in what i would characterize as a measured way. plodding along. we just reported results last quarter. north america came in above expectations. latin america is a mess, led by brazil. worst recession in a hundred years, the political unrest about rousseff. they have to host the olympics in rio later this year. that's down strong double-digits for us. china was down markedly for us, probably 25%. and i think that was largely as expected. it's a tricky country to do business, although motorola was the first u.s. multi-national in that country in the early '80s. overall latin america negative, asia pac positive, north america positive, emea mixed. oil have a contractionry effect on some of the gulf proving. >> it should be improving. they have positive gdp. >> western europe is better. eastern europe, russia and ukraine, given the sergeanancti

economy, even if the data says perhaps they should. >> and that is therein lies the rub. you look at the macro numbers and president obama is looking good but you dig into it and people feel a lot of anxiety. we'll talk a lot more about that over the course of the show. l. joy and perry are sticking around. katy tur, thanks for being here. >>> north carolina lawmakers, you have until tomorrow to do something about that terrible law or the justice department is coming for you. that's next. every insurance comy understands the life behind it. those who have served our nation. have earned the very best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life. when your symptoms start... distracting you? doctors commend taking ...non-drowsy claritin every day of your allergy season. claritin provides powerful, non-drowsy 24 hour relief... for fewer interruptions from the amazing things you do every day. live claritin clear. customer service!d. ma'am. this isn't a computer... wait. you're real? with discover card, yo

macro discussion. china is or is the largest or second largest economy in the world. growing as a faster pace than we are. making some tremendous inroads. i'm bullish on china. probably among the most bullish on china at this table now. i think it's a tremendously innovative society and culture. very much in favor of that. also, on this specific recommendation c5, i have met with some of the principles. i met with some of the principles and i'm impressed with them. i want to make it clear, in terms of my perceptions on the players in this, i think they're fantastic. i think they are among the best that i seen. the disthree i have is due diligence by staff and consultant. number two is the ownership of the share, number three are the fees. those are the three ones. fix go through the consultant recommendation, napc is our consultant. have you been to china to visit these members? >> i have not. our people traveled to china. they have not met with these managers. they will do on their next trip. >> you have my vote today. if that's the case, that's why i wanted to delay

macro thesis. it might be into 2017 and where it transitions into the economy is really through the dollar, so by the fed becoming much more dubbish, the dollar has weakened. should be positive for gdp growth. our base case is is that we can still squeeze out 2 and a half gdp growth for this year. earning growth 7 to 8 for s&p 500. however, if we do see inflation coming up, wages are rising, you're going to see a commodity-base effect, credit is still expanding, we think we could have inflation surprise where the fed does raise rate and that will shoot the dollar back up and the eighth earnings growth will be close to zero. our base case is 2017 will be a recession in the u.s. maria: wow. any expectations for the job's numbers coming this week? i think the estimate 200,000 jobs for the month of april. >> we think it would be pretty close. i would say 200,000. jobs are a lagging indicator. maria: interesting. the recession have began to recede but you're saying it's still in the table for 2017? >> i think so. maria: thank you for joining us, bill kennedy. firing gulfs in historic cathedral. cable may

economy. a fascinating chart that brings back what we do on a day-to-day basis, going back to these macro economic how do you view a chart like that? robin: for me, it tells me there is a change in the way people are consuming in a technology intensive society. as the father of two daughters, getting a car license is difficult. wide why want a car? why would i want a car? you get apps. you stream your music, you done no -- you do not even own records or cds. a shiftthere's away, which might be good for the planet in terms of resources . getting more out of less. that is a good vision for the future. i look at that chart and think it is good. i think about the pew study about the american families in metropolitan areas are less well off today than they were 15 years ago and it worries me. who is making stuff? where are the jobs? tom: there was a pew research study of different metropolitan areas. the inequality is not only there , it is pervasive and growing. you at chatham house see a policy prescription that can reverse inequality? that theren't think is a single policy prescription. like everyth

macro. that's one upside. evolutionk about the of economic thought. you think about what you learned and how the economyudent, both at brown and yale, and today, what do we know today that is really fundamentally important that they didn't know when you were a student? janet yellen: macroeconomics as a field has continued to advance and the dean's remarks talked about what i'll referred to as the microeconomic foundations of macroeconomics. this is something that not only did i work on, but you have made important contributions to is well. theory i think was wage and price stickiness or rigidity plays an important role in understanding unemployment, but the economic foundations, the micro-foundations of wages and prices sticking hadn't been well understood. i thing we really made a lot of progress in advancing that. greg, as you mentioned, when there is financial crisis or a time of high unemployment, it does stimulate people to think about macroeconomics and to take off in new directions. i think that is happened in this financial crisis. in particular, i would point to isrowing body of work that at th

macro economics again. there is one little upside to economic down turns. something to smi about the evolution of economic thought. so if you think about what you learned, how the economy works as a student both at brown and yale and what we know today, what is really fundamentally important that they didn't know when you were a student? >> well, macro economics is a field is absolutely continued to advance. and dean conen, her remarks talked about what i'll refer to as the macro economics foundation -- >> we've been listening to january he will yellen engage in a q&a with a harvard economists. she is talking about how she got in economics and her background. let's go to rick santelli. rick? >> it's been a tough week for fixed income traders. futures, options and cash. a variety of issues collided this week. we have early closes in many markets. we're putting up some charts. we had pretty big moves to the upside in yield, at least moves on a relative scale. but everything ended yesterday afternoon. a lot because of janet yell en. not sure what to expect. many option traders neutralize positions. all day long today, traders are coming torn between get ago way from the b

it is important because before the dat is hiked and the economy surges to beat the hike, and then slumps afterwards, it is very important for a macroecision-making to decide whether it goes ahead or not. jon: john vail, sticking with us. was onecoming up, it year ago yesterday the dow hit a record high. but it has struggled to gain momentum since. track -- do not forget to stay with us for our 8:00 a.m. hour. we will be joined by steve rattner and david's herbal -- zervos.d ♪ an: 365 days ago the dow hit all-time high, but the market little changed since. still with us is john bell. -- john vail. was about 52igh weeks ago. what does that tell you about the world? john: it tells you things are in consolidation mode, that the u.s. had a massive regrading -- a massive rerating and it is struggling to get above that. especially with the oil price decline and the strong dollar. the markets are getting accustomed to that, and it seemed like friday was a big day where people are increasingly ,ricing in a june or july hike yet the stock went up anyway. it is a pretty strong indicator. vonnie: it does feel like the bond market is hanging on

if we go back to macro 101, you wouldn't pass a tax increase if you wanted to stimulate. so these guys have added taxes to their economies should be doing the opposite. >> but it started with that intention. as a way of saying we're going to prime the pump. we're going these asset purchases and what have you. and sounds like a step too far and going negative a quarter percent does matter rather -- >> you start at 5% and go all the way down to zero and things aren't working well all the way to zero so you just reflexively say let's keep going. but once you get past zero things get a little crazy. you don't really know how people react that. >> does that mean people have a point or they need a different tool. >> well you are definitely going to need a different tool and the tool is likely fiscal. >> [ inaudible ]. >> and if you think about where central banks are now and you look back maybe 20 years ago, they would all have said 20 years ago that everything they are doing now is quasifiscal. so they are already doing fiscal. their problem is they don't want to cross a red line. they don't want to just hand people money. th

macro chart. it offers a snapshot of the u.s. economic and financial system. in purple, gdp, the economyof money and then in blue, wall street and the s&p 500. 40 years into the financial crisis, all trend along well. and then the financial crisis happens, see a huge divergence for the first time. i would argue that it represents the feds accommodation and actions to save the system. all that money pumped into bond buying sent the money to a record low, but it took us out of the great recession. gdp stabilized and risk assets go to all-time highs. he couldcenarios where see of the convergence. let's take a look at the bullish and optimistic, which should mean money shoots back up as it begins to change more quickly in the economy and the s&p 500 can hopefully hang on to those. vonnie: it's going in the wrong direction, isn't it? right.: right now, it is going in the wrong direction. record low, so much liquidity but the optimistic reading of it , technically, there are up to's reasons to believe he could see it spiked higher, which would support the s&p 500 and economy at record highs. v

with times because a big economy or big government controlled economy can do a lot things otherwise so it is always interesting to hear the macro >> this the morning there was a fund manager from cmtdy, which is a commodity hedge fund and he said the lows are in in oil and he thid said i this i the collapses of the chinese economy has been put off a few weeks or few months but i'm sure you will hear it's coming in the afternoon. and he's absolutely right. and druckenmiller talked about the theme how the ease in money isn't working and corporate debt is squandered. >> and the last time 2005, it was on record about the financial crisis and it happened three years later. he's been on this thing. sent me some weird message the other day i didn't really understand but he definitely is thinking maybing it is coming to pass. >> can the gold is pretty much the only thing he likes. >> vale resorts, which actually took a hit because people were confused what it was. >> i just hit up. >> right the -- >> it's gone from 30 to 140. >> there is nothing do with -- >> shareholders are not -- let me talk to him another. i'm not even addressing y

macro uncertainty, what bothers you the most? i said it was unfair. >> it's not unfair. as i look at the dynamics come i think the overall, the global economyf the global gdp is probably the singular issue. that has been impacted by many things. i think that is the issue. i said on the call that we executed well in an uncertain environment but we are also nicely positioned to be a beneficiary of any recovery in the global economy. >> thank you so much, chuck robbins. it's the global concerns. deutsche bank is in the news its annual calls shareholder meeting and we are joined live by matt miller who was at the meeting. matt: they are in the question and answer session. seeseo says he still either a small profit are a small loss in 2016. it's important for shareholders but the statement earlier was the most important story for global wall street today. deutsche bank is reaffirming their commitment to global investment banking. that means they will not tear down their bank like you have seen others do like credit suisse. they will not cut back drastically on their focus on trading or the advisory business. and if they cut costs headcount and h

but from a macro level, the "new york times" shut down "the wall street journal" shut down, many companies can't get in, if you're on tv over there and you say something bad about the economye all just kind of ignoring the reality of the fact that everything we're talking about is built on thin ice anyway with regard to quantifying the data and the facts? >> well, actually, i've said a lot of pretty harsh things about the chinese economy on tv in china and i'm still here. it is unfortunate when you talk about politics in china you run the risk of the wrath of the government. but in terms of economics the exchange is still pretty vibrant. i was just there again a couple weeks ago and met with economists from chinese banks and from the government, and i think the debate is still quite strong there. but we have to remember that we really need to pay attention to what happens in china because china accounts for one-third of global growth today. that's greater than the contribution of global growth coming from the u.s., europe and japan combined. in fact, if you look at all of the asian countries invested in that's 60% of global growth. we have to invest it. >> excellent. andy,