david: mike mckee, wanted to ask about the dissent. what color do a have about what is motivating that and perhaps if her opinion is becoming shared by the rest of the committee? mike: there is a concern that the fed might be falling behind. the inflation rate might move faster, more quickly. we saw that in an interview on monday. minutes suggested that those who are arguing for an immediate move worried the fed would have to move more quickly and at a more severe pays to try to raise interest rates, if indeed they were falling behind the curve. came up in these minutes. i wonder the degree to which you think the global situation is weighing on the federal reserve's mind going forward. michael: generally, if you look at the next couple of moscow the data is better and the global outlook has been more of a concern. the committee also mentioned concerns about china. it is a lingering concern for the committee. certainly brexit after the june meeting is something they will be attentive to. and you had fetish of -- fed officials in the last

for more, mike mckee joins us. mike, we could see more volatility in the markets.ta, fed speak leading to repositioning. the jobs report is the key, isn't it? >> indeed. the jobs report is what you always need to see, and that is what the fed is looking at. they're looking for straight, 200,000 jobs, which would tell in the u.s. is on track. although the current manufacturer number is also key. if it is strong, there will be more of a feeling that the second quarter is going to have a decent rebound and if it is week it will set off additional market concerns and keep people from thinking the fed will do much. mark: we spoke to a fed policymaker on friday, another fed officials speak this week. what is the tone, the message from the fed? >> that officials would like to get across that they are dated and, not worried about the major , overarching problems of china in the dollar spot they want to see what happens to the u.s. economy and if the u.s. economy does perform as they expect in june is very much on the table but markets haven't priced that it. it will be an

mike mckee joins us now with a look ahead at the report and what it means for a possible june rate hikell, i want to or onete that 200,000 hundred 95,000 is a bit lower than what we were looking at, but it is still healthy. mike: it is still healthy. he keeps us within the average range. i have said they are expecting that kind of growth to continue and the unemployed and break to keep going down. you are right. it is 4.9%. if we get that, that argues for an earlier rather than later fed move, which is what a lot of the fed officials who have been talking lately have been saying. vonnie: speaking of fed officials, the st. louis fed speaking right now from the santa barbara county fair. the headlines i am pulling out of this is that gdp and inflation expectations support on thekets rates view one hand. and on the other hand, he says the july meeting. mike: the markets view and the fed to you, both. we have seen a slowdown of to this point. that's why the market is so pessimistic. but the market forecast is that things are going to pick up. if the economy picks up as the fed thinks, and w

joining us with a preview is mike mckee. looking for?omists it is 90 minutes. not 30 minutes. mike: you are so excited. economists are looking for a better april. howard largely by car sales and higher gasoline prices. powered largely by car sales and high gasoline prices. in march,wn month they saw a rebound in april. we are expecting retail figures to track that along the way. important to the fed as it is to wall street. we have seen this tectonic shift in spending. we have gotten all these bad numbers from the department stores. for the last decade, we have seen people spend more money on services than on goods, especially nondurable goods like clothing and shoes. the yellow line is the growth in services spending. the younger generation by things at stores like zara and h&m. david w.: mike you mentioned the fed. what are they talking about? the markets don't believe them. why do they keep saying this. mike: they want the markets to move now. they thought the markets were a little more hawkish than the invest or's.. they want to push markets up. they don't wanted to be a bi

mike mckee is in new york. then, a wrap of the g7 meeting.nd then another warning about the cost of a brexit. time, thetes government updates data on growth. we are joined by mike mckee who says the fed is likely to focus on bad news in the numbers. mike: half a percent growth in the first reading of the first quarter. that is likely to be revised up according to forecasts, but others on wall street will be focused on two numbers in the report. one is business spending and the other is our first look at corporate profit for the quarter. in the april minutes, there was a lot of talk about why business spending has contracted. as theyall companies decline, business spending has contracted. we saw that yesterday's durable goods report with capital goods unexpectedly falling. if we do not see profits rise, will be economy keep growing out a stronger face? jonathan: a fireside chat at harvard university and a lot of people putting their weekend on hold. they fire up the barbecue and get on with it? could.nmike: i wish i it would be more through th

mike mckee and i will advance this on bloomberg radio this morning with oliver chan and dana kelsey.ing up, we advance the economic discussion. he's really quite good. ten of deutsche bank on an interesting and nuanced view of what the fed will do. it is monday. it is bloomberg "surveillance." good morning. ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. from new surveillance york and london. let's get first to the first word news. oil: saudi arabia's new minister is expected to keep the country pumping oil at a record pace. he was appointed over the weekend. some higher cost producers out of the market. the philippines voters are casting ballots in a hotly contested election. is a controversial there who holds -- mayor who holds tough on crime. journalists have returned home after being held captive in syria for almost 10 months. turkey and qatar out in the release. helped in the release. donald trump is questioning the need for republican party unity. on sunday shows, he was questioned about lack of support from paul ryan and other republicans. meanwhile, wall street is giving a boost to hillary cl

mckee, you have got to be kidding me. they are going to raise rates 8 days before brexit. mikee polls suggest the brits are about to vote to leave the european union, then they may put it off, and september becomes the live meeting. but at this point, if the polls are to be believed and the brits are voting to stay in and the economy develops -- we get the 200,000 jobs we are forecasting, they want to go in june. tom: i want to rip up the script. productivity, how big of a thing is it? all of a sudden productivity matters. mike: it has mattered for quite a while. they do not know why it is not rising. business is not investing. we have not come up with any new products. the question is when does it come back? tom: michael mckee, always wandering through "surveillance." oflistens to every second bloomberg "surveillance." his wife says he needs to get a life. us from theill join peterson institute. a perfect time to speak to dr. posen, about currency wars but far more importantly the economic politics of mrs. clinton and mr. trump. this is bloomberg "surveillance." donald's town.

as mike mckee was mentioning, the fact that these rights workers were on strike will probably hurt thet, which we get next friday. alix: i have an of verizon stocks, this news came out 1:30, we did see a big spike up for verizon stocks, but now we are off that level nonetheless. off of theirs were job, the landline workers, so coming back online the market seems to be interpreted as a relative positive. scarlet: it push the number of the striking u.s. workers in the highest and four years. alix: in the next hour of "bloomberg markets," with oil prices on the rise, which is that mean for energy? expert, this is "bloomberg markets." ♪ >> it's 2:00 p.m. in new york, 7:00 p.m. in london, and 2:00 a.m. in hong kong. welcome to "bloomberg markets. from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am shery ahn. here is what we are watching. janet yellen says a rate hike may be coming. yellen: it is appropriate, and i have said this in the past, to gradually and cautiously increase our interest rate over time. and probably in the coming such a move would be appropriate. climbing ine still light

francine lacqua e-mailed me early this morning saying, how is mike mckee?w york presbyterian and i think he will be on set. here he is. --ie, the capitals fan, mckee, the capitals fan. puts it away. and they shoveled into the net. michael mckee, i spoke to lloyd blankfein last night. arch capital's fans. mr. blankfein says abby joseph cohen is sedated today. michael: my feeling that they are cursed is absolutely correct. it is like the chicago cubs for a long time and the boston red sox. superstars,iant milken and crosby of pittsburgh. tell our audience about mr. ovitz can of the capitals. he scores 50 goals a year but has not made it past the second round of the playoffs in his career, unlike mr. crosby. ,om: for those who are inside you wonder how long he can stay in washington. francine, step in here. francine: i just googled how many fans of the nhl -- the nhl has come and they claim 50 million fans. tom: it is a huge deal. there are many less hockey fans in basketball, but advertisers love the demographic, particularly in canada. for those of you in ca

and mike mckee right here in new york with the latest fed talks. the rally continues in crude. brent toppinggh, $50 a barrel for the first time this year. javier blas, talk to me about driving things toward and barrel. alter javier: we are losing some had thousand barrels a day in nigeria. -- 700,000 barrels a day in nigeria. in the background is the demand that a strong. everyone is driving a lot in the u.s. that combined with supply outages is bringing us to $50 a barrel. jon: i want to talk about debt supply. a $9 billion auction -- what does that tell you about market conditions? javier: the pain for the producers has been really acute. you see qatar borrowing $9 billion. they have a big production, relatively reduced population. it is not a country you would expect to be in trouble. that at $50,ing us the problem is not over. although the markets have rallied, we are up about 80% from the lows, we are only back to the level we were in november. back in november, we were talking about trouble for producing countries in the middle east. yes, the situation is better, but will

mike mckee on a barrage of u.s. economic data this morning. guy johnson has details. will kennedy is in london for the latest on the oil rally and home depot beats the street. we will break it down with matt townsend. in new york. plenty of economic data including consumer prices, and housing starts. michael mckee has great sense with his presence. this is all about inflation. how decisive will today's cpi really be? , for two't be decisive reasons. the fed's target is based on the pce index, not the cpi. i brought a chart of both the core rates, and the trend is the same but the pce runs half a percent lower. also, the last month, it went down. the forecast will be going down again this month. that fits into janet yellen's theory that the increase we have seen may be temporary. having twoflation components. sticky prices, like housing, insurance, medical care, and flexible prices like energy and cars. flexible prices have been going up and sticky prices aren't moving and that is the true story. might see an increase just because of how much oil prices have been incre

david: thanks very much to mike mckee.onathan: with the big guys coming up, over to japan now where the economy. a recession. we want to get the details. 2015 was ugly. it looks ugly of the first quarter. put it all together for me. >> good morning. japan escape recession, but if you look, there is plenty to be cautious about. japanese are sitting on a lot of cash, there is a real drive on the economy to drag on confidence. it is important in the context of the big policy debate and raising sales tax. spending, government is across the lines so today's numbers are preliminary. when you consider the soft backdrop to the economy, is eager the headline but plenty for the government to worry about. jonathan: with a good headline, maybe that is a problem because the fx market has stabilized as well. what is going to be the message from the japanese authorities and their counterparts. they are demanding an intervention sort of speak. there is a feeling they should push for this idea that can intervene in what you might consider

that is mike mckee. "surveillance" radio host. will or willthey not, i think the market has answered that question pretty loudly. matt: check out the world interest-rate probability count -- interest-rate probability calculator we have here. the probability of a rate hike .n june is only at about 8% here in red, you can see the probability of a cut. here in blue is the prediction that we will stay the same, 89%. and in white you see the probability of a rate cut really has come down, especially after the jobs number. if you pull down on this yellow are come you can check the possibility of other meetings. the december meeting, that is when the market things there is the possibility of another rate cut. if you look at the morgan stanley index, and they have a custom index for this. you can check this out on your bloomberg. this is thethat average hourly earnings, and a lot of people are saying janet yellen is more concerned with what people are getting paid and the inflation there then she is with the headline number. that rose to

mike mckee in new york on a possible summer rate hike.e will look at goldman sachs to annual meeting -- we will look at goldman's annual meeting. we will begin in paris with egyptair bound to cairo -- bound for cairo from paris. it seems that debris has been found. yesterday, there was a report that it had been found from the greek navy. not from theat was flight. the egyptian army has come out with an official statement says -- saying debris has been found a few hundred miles north of alexandria, which is the area that is the area with the plane was expected to go down. they found passenger items and bits of the plane. i don't know how long it will be before they can get to a laboratory where they can detest. it is pretty obvious from the to pre--- it is not obvious if it was a bomb are not. that will soon be the next development. was certainly a tragedy, but it is not lost on people that the plane originated from paris. what is the reaction? thewofold -- from government's point of view, they are very cautious. they really don't know wha

mckee? >> i think she has a more cautious view then mike does. she actually wants to see the recovery.ts to see things turn around. we are looking for ourselves a gdp to grow a little better than 2%. between 2%-two .5%, so it is an ok rebound. fed,rms of the regional suggesting the bounce in the isn will not do as strong next month , we do have to watch. i is and should start pulling up in the second half. we think it is a little early to pull the trigger for the fed in june, but we still think that september is in play. vonnie: that's the thing, how many good months do you need? another 200,000 on friday. i have been talking to some fed people, and we talked with robert kaplan. they are really surprised by the fact that no one thinks they will go in june. as john said, there data depended. they will not wait. >> in that interview, he said, look, we are trying to match so-- why are the gdp number strong compared to payroll chuckle payroll growth is coming in substandard sectors, low majors. michael: he said no one expects it to happen in june. what you think the market effect will be i

mckees. back to you. >> mike, thanks very much. that's it for now.h more updates. ♪ >>> 8:30 now. it's friday morning. it is memorial day weekend. we've got a great crowd, great plaza, great concert, dierks bentley is about to bring some country loving to midtown manhattan. and if you're a fan, we want to see your photos. use #dierkstoday and you may end up on the big board, on our fan cam. >> we have another huge concert on monday, memorial day, from fifth harmony. so, if you're in town and you'd like something fun to do on that morning, come join us for a mostlyday concert. >> it's going to be a great one. and of course, it wouldn't be a holiday to kick off the season without a barbecue. and sunny anderson is busy at the grill. and oh, man, i'm told the pork chops look amazing. can't wait to get those. you don't want to miss the recipe. >>> quickly, a thanks to everybody who contributed to red nose day. last night's celebrity telethon was here on nbc. it was an enormous success overall. raised more than $31 million for kids who need both here and t

mckee about the shock in australia and the shift in markets. a look at euro -dollar. three standard deviations. this is not what trichet would like. mikebeginning to have a debate among central banks about where inflation is going. have beenk evens falling as people expect more inflation out there. we have got a chart already made. that shows tip spreads. the tips yield for the 10-year has been going down as people pile into it. nine weeks in a row we have seen more money going into u.s. inflation protected security as people begin to worry about it. that's the converse of what is happening in a study. 8m: what a brilliant note months ago, but look, deflation is real. but overrated. people in the united states are beginning to see we're starting to see the signs of nascent inflation. we saw that in yesterday's pmi. a big rise in the prices paid index. in australia, they are worried about disinflation and the possibility of deflation because they are worried about what is happening with the chinese economy and the import much more. there is a question around the world of where we go and central-bank are reacting differently. francine: r