have to look at the component parts of what the dollar is weakening against, there is real reasons whien is strengthening significantly. europe runs a current account surplus. unless they do more and more to cause the currency to depreciateate, the euro naturally aappreciates. joe: the odds of a rate hike, any rate hike at all for the rest of the year is right around 50/50. looking at my terminal, we have the work function which shows 52.6% chance of a rate hike did i december. how does that fit in with how you see things? rick: the best case this year is we're going to get something zero to two hike this year. i would migrate toward one hike. if you told me where is a logical location of that taking place, as long as the data supports it, i could see july as being you set up for it in june and talk about, if it doesn't happen, let it happen in july. if the data doesn't support it and we think the data is trending softer and continuing to trend softer, you push that back. joe: 8% of a june hike, 2% in july. people in the market see that as a possible approach the fed might take. rick: if