global news, 24 hours a day, 2400ed by more than journalists in 150 news bureaus around the world.ok: david cameron is due attend a dinner with his european union counterparts this evening. he will have a chance to clarify the next steps for britain after the country voted to leave the -- the eu. ryan chilcote joins us from brussels. i want to ask about an exchange between nigel farage and to be president of the european commission. i understand that things got heated? absolutely. the rhetoric is definitely heating up. you can tell that from this exchange. john called you a good is the president of the executive arm of the eu. it is his job as that president to carry out the collective will of the eu countries. then you have nigel farage, the leader of the eu independence party. he is not in the parliament in london or in his parliament members. he was a fierce campaigner for the u.k. to leave the european union. >> that is the last time i'm applauding him. i'm very surprised that you are here. you are fighting for the exit. the british people voted in favor of the exit. you can he

global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm mark crumpton. david: global oil markets should balance out by next year. aea said the supply is 40% less than estimated one month ago. for more, we're joined by kathryn downey miller. great to have you here. let's get your reaction to that .recast from the iea kathryn: anybody who watches the oil markets is interested in demand numbers today. on the supply side, we are coming down faster than expected due to these unexpected supply disruptions. david: what are the risks this market is facing right now? kathryn: we are seeing those canadian barrels come back online. there are still issues with nigeria and libya. are waiting on supply disruptions to rebalance this market, it is tenuous at best. the iea get its forecast wrong? kathryn: they are looking at reported data. especiallyerfect, when you're talking about global international sources for the data. issues we see,er when we look at how iea reports and talks about north america, we think there are some fundamental issues

global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. mark: thank you very much. in global stocks, they are surging today and sterling has spread the most since 2008. the argument for the u.k. remaining in the eu is gaining today. do you think today's rally might be a little bit premature? we are three days away from the referendum. no, i think the markets generally, particularly emerging markets, are underweight in portfolios globally so people are beginning to think that with these very low interest rates may be going lower into negative territory of many countries, perhaps a stock portfolio that pays a dividend yield at 3% and 4% is the way to go. mark: how bad will the fallout be for emerging markets if a brexit vote materializes thursday. ? >> i think initially it will be quite negative not only for emerging markets but globally. people will feel there was a great uncertain environment for trade and investment. many people will say that some of the trade links will be cut in exports and imports will decline. initially, it will

global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm shery ahn. tom: thank you so much. sterling looking in a brexit direction. let's look at equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. euro stronger, oil elevated. showsxt screen clearly the stable equity markets and those low yields, that is the switzerland 20 year yield. we will be talking a lot about that, -20 year paper in switzerland. francine: very quickly, i know you mentioned pound. there is something that is very interesting. picture for the board. european stocks down 0.5%. the government bond yield for 10 in germany is at 005. it was at a record low. i want to show you the jgb 20 year because it is also at a record low. tom: we are going to talk to mike mckee and the next hour. francine, what do you have on the terminal? francine: basically the german bund. i want to focus on the 10 year. basically this goes back just to risk aversion and it goes back to what we talk day in and day out. growth is there and if we see many more forecast going downward it is going to be

global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. david: the dollar is heading for a weekly gain against the euro. treasuries weighing upcoming risks, incding next week's fed meeting. vonnie: with so much uncertainty ahead the summer, how should you position your portfolio? joining usoreale now. the way younged look at how portfolios are comprised in the last couple of months? philip: sure. are focusing on now best don't fight the ecb or bank of japan. 5% of merrill lynch's global bond index is trading in negative yields last year, that is now pushing 30%. parents are paying for summer camp, central bankers are buying bonds like parents are paying for summer camp. absolute necessity, don't look at the price. are using the global government bond market as a way we believeecause interest rates will plummet lower. one thing that has been proven is equity markets feel the jitters, rates globally are going to rally. david: how much are you and others looking back to last summer? philip: the biggest difference between last summer in

global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. mark: thank you very much, indeed. profit of vw tumbling in the first quarter, highlighting the challenge the automaker faces. chief executive matthias mueller spoke with matt miller a short time ago in berlin. what did he have to say? that ise of the things important to point out is that although profit fell at volkswagen i-86 percent, they still make a ton of money in their other businesses. audihave a 9% return at with 17% return at porsche. -- profit fell at both sweig and by 86% -- profit fell at volkswagen by 86%. digitalname for automotive apps like uber, they just made a $300 million competitorin an uber and a hope to get a lot more revenue from this kind of business. if you matthias mueller wasn't worried about any kind of cannibalization. abouthe wasn't worried any kind of cannibalization. this is not -- this is what classic carmakers have to get used to. over the next five to 10 years, we will earn money from the business. we want to change and become a supplier of m

global news -- global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than a 150 news bureaus jonathan: thank you. coming up on this program, we have more with mohamed el-erian. just three days until the brexit referendum. janet yellen gives her statement to congress, that starts tomorrow. will we hear anything new? ♪ jonathan: good day, this is "bloomberg ." the pound is a much stronger pound dominating the fx market, the biggest upward move on a daily basis since 2008. let's go to the board as the polls start to slip away from brexit odds. positive, up 217 points on the session so far. a global equity market rally. the pound is much stronger. switch up the boards and i will show you what is happening. the yield shifting higher on a u.s. 10 year yield. risk goes to commodities. extended gains from a one-month low. it is the fx market and volatility i want to discuss now. still with us.n i want to put a chart on the screen and talk to viewers about the elevated levels of volatility we have seen. this is the implied volatility, the red dot is where we are now. the one insid

global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. shery: thank you so much. investors having to reconsider a hike10 hike -- a june fed following a report showing the u.s. edit fewest workers in four years. weighed in on the data earlier today. shock tos enough of a ay june and july, for sure. they've been trying to convince us that one or two hikes are in the cards. this certainly june thinking. along with brexit. shery: how should investors readjust their portfolios? i want to bring in kathy jones from charles schwab. great to talk to you. inthe last jobs report april, he said the market overlooked some sides of strength. kathy: this was a big disappointment. some of the numbers were not so bad. hourly earnings held at a 2% rate. there was a lot of disappointing data in here come especially following the last couple months. i don't think we can dismiss this as a one off. second order growth is probably somewhat weaker than we had been anticipating. what does it tell you that labor force participation decline for the second st

global news, 24-hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists, in 150 news bureaus around the world. am nejra cehic. tom: we will not bury you with data. mckee across all of bloomberg surveillance this morning, we will give you a tapestry of markets. it is a backdrop. deutsche bank is down 21% in june. let me say that again, it is so profound. deutsche bank is down 21% in june. equity markets are weaker. yields need to be re-described. morning, a 15610-year. the euro is the one spot of stability with oil weaker. up theee how we can pick pieces in francine's data check. the yen, there are no words to describe it with loads of intervention talk. just talk. 104. 18 blows through, strong, strong yen. i don't know where to begin on the negative yield derby. maybe all i can say is hello copenhagen. it is like denmark this morning. francine: that could be a song. we are looking for negative yields. i have a chart that shows the 30-year yield. i want to look at pound on the back of the referendum, seven-days from now. 104.en at we recently touch 103. they set a month ago we will go to 95. to

global news 24 hours per day. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much.ht to the data check. equities are the lift this morning. dow futures doing well, as well. onto the next screen right now. vix trades before the market opening. sterling, 1.4882. francine: stocks rising in europe. we are seeing a lift for equities. i want to go back to the emerging markets. leading gains among currencies of oil exporting nations, the ruble. tom: negative interest rates. let's get a quick look at that. what a thrill to talk about negative rates earlier. one of the founders of the european experiment. francine: this is my chart. it basically goes through the number of rigs in the u.s. tom: woah, chart camp! very good. francine: this is the number of u.s. rig counts. show producers can come back online -- shale producers can come back online quickly. do you like that? tom: i'm speechless. i can't take it. looking at commodities -- it has been way too long since we talked to you about metals. let's start with the basic metals business. iron ore, copper, and the rest. do th

global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. cehic.jra tom: let's get right to the data. equities,continues in bonds, currencies, commodities. yields churned a little lower earlier, akin fourth, tweet by tweet on the polling board. doing much the vix better than it was on thursday and friday with sterling stronger. maybe that is the ultimate thermometer this morning, and the two year yield in the u.s. may be sensitive to what chair yellen says. francine: this is my board. you can see the vix is what i chose, european stocks, most are fluctuating, the dollar dropping with yen. the market feels very binary because they are looking at the polls and depending on the poll in brexit they either sell off or pile on. tom: and they were in with a mixed poll earlier. on to the bloomberg. i am using my take by take tone by tic tone.c i did not move the blue line over on the right and the idea here of sterling strength in the last few days breaking down strength,terling shows you the move we have seen and the last two days. francine:

my guest tonight is an award-winning journalist, yahoo global news anchor and executive producer of theun." >> do you think that people should have to pass a background check before they purchase a gun? >> no. >> is there anybody here who thinks such a thing? i don't think so. >> why? >> a background check is nothing more than gun registry where the government says, "another let's see, katy's got one of these, one of these, one of these." so in their future plan when they come knock at your door going, "we show you have these three guns and now they're illegal in your place we'd like them, please or who are you giving them to." >> who is afraid the government will try to take away your guns? >> trevor: please welcome katie couric. ( cheers and applause ) >> trevor: welcome to the show. >> it is so nice to be here. >> trevor: this is such an honor having you. i mean, you are-- you are television. ( laughter ) you are the person who sits on the opposite side. this is-- this is really, really an honor for me. >> work that's awfully nice of you to say. and how are you enjoying your new gig.

global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around theld. scarlet: "what'd you miss?" andrew live in is still with us. -- andrew levin is still with us. deweyith us is patrick from the university of oregon. joe: we were talking about the and one of the things that struck everyone was now we have six people up from one last time who only see one additional hike. what changed since march? but werm trends change, only got that one job report. gdp and spending data has been quite solid then. what justifies so many people switching to one hike for the rest of the year? >> one factor is that it was already starting last fall, the federal reserve board member started talking about the case for watchful waiting, and what has happened is that more and more of the committee have come around to that view. it may well be the case that if that continues further -- that that may continue further. a year ago if you ask a lot of federal reserve officials what would the economy look like if the 10 year treasury rate drop -- one 1.5 or one point point six,

global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world, i'm shery ahn. equities, get to bonds, currencies, commodities, a quieter week. futures up seven. yields churn. the euro stronger over the last two days. hourshilling in the 6:00 really pushes against the oil bulls. the vix showing, that is a well number, 13.12. level, brent0 crude $51 a barrel. and then we look at the sterling cross. sterling, im going to call the brexit debate from here with a 146.03 -- 1.4603 sterling. i'm glad -- francine: we look at the pound on a minute by minute basis as the polls are very close. back and it was unclear whether that was because of the brexit or a fat finger. you,is what i picked for the south korean won. it jumped the most in six years after janet yellen quelled speculation about the rates -- about the rates being raised. tom: where else are you going to get dollar one and aussie dollar ? let's wander over to what janet yellen talked about yesterday. this may be my chart of the year, i have not decided yet. forget about the blue noise. t

global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. cehic.jra tom: within all the news flow, markets are on the move. currencies,ns, commodities, and the first and second derivatives are interesting. futures further give way. the 10 year yield is 162 2157 in, from 24 hours. oil nevertheless hold some resilience at the 48, 49 level. the vix gets my attention, a balloon from 16 to 22. the vix trades now before the u.s. market opening. the 10 year again to compare and year,st with a german 10 which has moved mightily in the last 60 minutes. negative 0.02. it is not the two-year german, it is the 10 year. hugeine: this is psychological impact. the first time the german tenure is negative. it is a 10 year. it is not supposed to go in negative territory. if you look at yields, the 30 gilt yield fell as well. sliding stocks and you can see yen, one of 5.75 and the pound 1.4143. tom: it also mentioned mexico in a 19 print. today.mexico weaker maybe it is brexit that maybe it is not. let's look at a snapshot of small business in america

global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i am nejra cehic. tom: thank you so much. being at the bloomberg terminal, equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities, there is a little bit of fed day stability but still interesting. futures after a number of difficult days up six. brian belski to join us and i'm looking forward to talking to him about what i should do with my 201 k. oil continues a dampening, a lot of that yesterday afternoon. i thought oil was soggy to say the least. the vix is 22. even with yields taking a relief, we have curve flattening. in dollar renminbi it was a 6.0 with a manage beijing weakening rim nimby overnight. francine: european stocks rallied attach. the british pound rebounding ahead of the fiscal policy review and i also want to show -- because it is nearing a 5 a five-year low. a lot of focus on the u.k. unemployment rate. eight days to the brexit referendum. tom: our coverage beginning at 1:00 p.m. new york time this afternoon. here's the fed funds rate pre-volcker. what we forget here,

global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm mark crumpton. back to you. alix: stocks are up today in spite of some bearishness at the start of the year. the s&p closed at its highest level since july. scarlet: and creeping toward that record high once again. erik schatzker had an exclusive interview. he painted a promising picture. guest: the u.s. equity markets function incredibly well. investors get their trades done better, faster and cheaper than ever before. because of the efficiency improvements, retail investors say more than a billion dollars a year. erik: why is there this persistence that the market is rigged, machines are taking over and the little guy is getting screwed? guest: when things become more efficient and automated, there are winners and losers. a lot of the losers are pining for the days when spreads were 1/16 of a dollar and intermediaries may lot more money. today, it just works much better. erik: the narrative of that storyline, michael lewis published a book -- does it feel funny to you that you

the warriors play lebron james and the cleveland cavaliers tonight eric global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 150nalists in more than news bureaus around the world. i'm emma chandra. vonnie. dan juergen spoke to bloomberg go this morning and gave his outlook. take a listen. been looking at recovery, we have been looking to have oil orbit around $50, but it has been accelerated by the disruptions, most notably the disruption in nigeria. be sure the short-term issues is just that. production can come back. canada can come back. what if nigeria is not as bad as we think. how long-term are those disruptions? dan: i was just in canada. canadian oilsands have been increasing since 2014 and will probably,o increase, adding another 500,000 barrels by the end of this decade. i think nigeria is a political question. when the president came in, he cut off payments to militants, i guess we would call them. they responded by blowing up pipelines. motive forind of doing that? that allows nigeria to get back because so much of its budget comes from will. at myif you take a look terminal, i have

global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists, in more than 150 news bureaus across the worlde?nnie a smart vonnie vonnie: the fed is conducting stress tests. graham fisher joins me to talk about the release of the results. what will we learn? >> this is the quantitative portion. , but being ast over capitalized as they are, i do not expect the major banks to have problems in this round. 29th whenwill be the we go to the qualitative side, which is a black box, and no one is sure what the fed will be focused on. that will be where you define the payout ratios. is unlikely that bank of america will have the same problems as last year. $180 million to take care of the problems caused them to resubmit. a 10%aid, you are seeing increase in credit and in commercial real estate concerns and problems. that is going to be the question on the qualitative side. i expect ratios to go up dramatically. vonnie: we will show a screen of what banks have been paying. city, more america, than 68. there is a big difference. fed may not be considering a severe scenario of negative interest rates a

global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. back to you. shery: tomorrow, may jobs numbers come out. payrolls for the month are expected to match aprils 160,000 increase. we could see the unemployment rate fall to 4.9% from a level not seen since 2008. for more, we are joined by matthew mcaleer in sarasota, florida. great to see you. ,e saw these jobless claims falling to an impressive low this morning. how will tomorrow's payroll data affect the thought process at the fed? matthew: under five is a great number to look at. it gives the fed a bit of room if they would like to move in the near future. that is one input into a global market. look overseas, you have brexit to talk about coming ecb to talk about, here, we have fomc, unemployment, wage. we try to work that into our allocation account. shery: how do you capture this fomc premium in this tightening cycle? matthew: one thing we've been looking to do is stay with the consumer, even though we had some pullback three weeks ago. the consumer areas rebounded nicely. t

global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists, in more than 150 news bureaus across the worldi am taylor briggs. vonnie: thanks. there is sign that tension is easing since last week's brexit vote. they are still sounding the alarm of the outcome of the referendum. >> it unleashed a crisis of the financial markets. toparable in severity only 2007, 2008. this has been moving inflammation -- this has been moving in slow motion. vonnie: our next guest knows that while the brexit vote is a big deal to the u.k., it is much less to the global economy. what makes you so sure, david, we have seen in the past that one illness in the market can take a -- to analyze a situation in terms of politics and financial markets. a political perspective, it is a disaster for the united kingdom. it could break up scotland. they will have a very tough time negotiating with europe. for europe, i don't think another country want to follow britain. britain will be a cautionary yale and tell voters you ma not do it because you will have a recession if you do. britain is less of 1% of global gdp. i don't

global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around theld. scarlet: "what'd you miss?" federalshows the reserve does not factor in presidential politics when deciding monetary policy. this would suggest the central bank will not be influenced when policymakers meet. we have crunched the numbers on this. attempted to answer the question, will the fed refrain rates.zin raising what did you learn? >> there is a kind of silent consensus among many investors that the fed will not raise rates because it is during an election, so we crunched the numbers. evidence atsoever that the fed has ever paid attention to the election. in 1998 episode was where there was a brief time of rate hikes. even at was not contested election. close, so overall there is no evidence that the fed pays attention to the election, and if they raise or want to raise, they just do it. joe: what about the impact on the real economy, fed aside. did you find examples of cesticularly close rate that caused nervousness? >> it is usually more impacted by the stock market. think t

global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. vonnie: thank you. now we are looking at a live shot of the u.s. congress. premise or of india is about to make and we will monitor headlines of that. markets struggling to find direction. if you come into my bloomberg, showing the global sluggishness of economic data. it has dropped below zero again, it has in on the downturn. investors hedge? mark: that is the big question. in my guess from brooks mcdonald asset management. you say the keys to a more positive scenario are threefold majorlar earnings, no political or policy shocks, are we asking for a lot here? kevin: i think we are. this set are taking a much more dovish stance and they had earlier in the year but the commodities and emerging markets, it has taken pressure off the chinese currency and chinese currency have added fiscal stimulus to their own economy. tose things have combined allow equity markets to rally and the background is economic data hasn't gotten any worse, it hasn't gotten better, but it hasn't gotten worse

global news 24 hours per day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. back to you. alix: you can make money and energy right now. sectorscies in energy are growing and some copies are providing and attract meant -- an attractive investment opportunity. with significant oil gas investments and putting money to work. prior to that she was the global head of accolade -- head of commodity sales. what is the case for owning energy? guest: there is still a lot of dislocation. whether it is the high yield equity markets, what is being said -- what is being priced in is very different. if you look to own ig names you are paying a premium. $65 per barrel. alix: if you look at their debt, they are pricing in $65 per barrel for crude where is the high-yield market is pricing in what the actual script prices. if there are two different markets, which one is right? guest: you can really make money in the convergence of this. if you really push me on what my thought is, i don't think $65 per barrel is obtainable at the end of 20162017. rigs are starting to com

global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm mark crumpton. back to you. scarlet: let's turn back to today's disappointing jobs data u.s. employers added 38,000 workers in may, the fewest sits september 2010. on top of that, i is coming in lower as well. so what does this mean for a data dependent fed? here is the initial reaction from mohamed el-erian. mohamed el-erian joins me now live from irvine. julie was giving us the market reaction, and yes, a swift reaction. stocks fell,nked, but then they came back a little bit. a big move in the german 10-year. the yield hitting a record low. right now at a low of 6.5 basis points. of course, you have the yen gathering a lot of strength here. these are outsized moves. are they simply following the nonfarm report, the gains of the fed, or does this directly influence the federal reserve and what they decide to do next? mohamed: the direction of the moves makes sense. at face value, this report means the fed is less likely to hike rates in june. in fact, the probability, the a hike

global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than a 150 news bureaus this ishe world. bloomberg. tom: let's look at the data. australia later this evening. a huge divide between what is called regular stocks and banking stocks. one-daystocks had a bear market yield, a higher yield over the last six hours of 21.46g friday from 1.49 -- to 1.46. like 2008, look 2007. a mystery on monday. for those of you on radio, i put this on bloomberg radio plus. the to send spread did not flatten. this is a huge deal of what did not happen on friday. francine, what do you see? francine: i want to pick out a chart that shows the brutality in the pound. poorly made to the chart for me. this is a 10 sigma deviation. they peter doff a little bit. i do not know what monday will bring. i don't know. i won't speculate. but watch out. let's head to westminster. half the labour party senior team will resign. this is a coup with them labour party. >> good morning. we spoke to a member of parliament within the labour party and he was also calling on corbyn to resign. we also saw there is

global news 24 hours per day powered by our 2400 journalists news bureaus 150 in the world. man, a very imposing man. >> thank you so much. the greatknows recession saw a surge in foreclosure activity. many foreclosures may not have been in -- may not have been done in compliance with the law. >> we spoke with the author of the new book -- which tells the new story of a group of activists that blew the whistle. >> what didn't they discover? they cover up this inability to track properly the transfer of mortgages from one entity to another during securitization. that is when all these loans got packaged up and centered around. >> there are very specific rules and documents. things that have to specify how these papers are moved around. the great machine ignored all of that. is supposed to give us confidence that when we buy and sell property nobody else has a claim on it. it really separates developed nations from undeveloped nations. what were some particularly egregious examples these activists found? >> one examples this lady, linda green. as anme was used authorized corpo

global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. cehic.jra tom: let's do a data check. today very much on the pending go tomorrow across the united kingdom, the polls opening at 7:00 a.m. futures are churning. euro, 1.1 tods, 66. oil a little bit higher. showing hr and after the big remain day we saw two days ago. 1.4661. is down to oil, $51 a barrel on brent crude. francine: the vix as you say pretty much flat. the world indices were gaining a little bit more, actually a lot more about an hour and a half ago. the ftse pretty much flat, the pound also flat. it just goes back to the fact that people are still undecided. the markets are saying one thing and the polls are saying another. tom: a little less charts today, a little more newspaper for the tone of the united kingdom. the thermometer we have been using, this is euro-sterling. here is the number of sterling per euro, and basically the move down on the right side is a stronger sterling, that is the remain push over the last three or four days after the tragic murder of

global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts and more than 100 countries. tom: let's get to the data right now. finally a bid, that is the headlines with futures up 195. the euro a little bit of a bid and that shows some of the nuance. the yen does not move. there are some real dynamics in the spread market. the vix comes in 2141. what a wacko fix yesterday. stronger, 1.3307. there is the dynamics of the yield curve. francine, what do you see? francine: i am seeing pretty much the same things. european stocks rebounding as investors are speculating from our policy help. you, this isw probably not the stocks europe 600 today. i do not believe they are down 20% but overall this is the fix index. -- vix index. there is something wrong with my board. do not freak out. tom: can we blame that on marissa the intern? probably an intern screwed up the data check, right? francine: it was just a one-year data check. tom: our interns are only with us for like four days. let's go to the bloomberg. when in doubt, beat up on the summer interns. the difference in the two-

global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i am mark crumpton. david: coming up later this hour, china's influence on commodities. sachsurrie of goldman tells us how china could set a downward pace for commodities in the next year. shery: arranged today on insider trading charges. how call for phil mickelson escaped prosecution. david: another look at today's trade on the s&p 500. more "bloomberg markets" coming up on bloomberg television. ♪ david: this is "bloomberg markets." shery: more breaking news on the ucla shooting. mark: according to the lapd twitter feed, two people are now confirmed dead in that shooting today at ucla's campus. the shooting taking place around 10:00 a.m. local time. still no word on whether there is a search for an active shooter or shooters on campus. according to some of the light shots we saw earlier, massive police and emergency personnel presence. the shooting took place near , at the center of the campus. the shooting occurring one week before final exams at the school. two people have

global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around theorld. i am mark crumpton. scarlet: "what'd you miss?" ine signs of stabilization brazil's economy. gdp contracted by only three tens of 1%, less than forecast. business confidence is starting to recover as acting president take steps to put the economy back on track. you have described brazil's economy as taking on the characteristics of an economic depression. why is that still your call? has been one of the longest, deepest recessions in living memory in brazil. it is already a quarters long. this started to and half years ago. we have seen a contraction of 9% gdp, deeper than what we have the in the last decade of , where per capita gdp contracted by 7.6%. we have seen 10 consecutive quarters of the climbing , 12% per quarter, five consecutive quarters of declining private consumption. this has been a brutal recession, and other indicators suggest the unemployment rate is exceeding 11%. we got the gdp data, a little better than expected, but still contraction. also, brazilian pmi, a

global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 20 600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. tom: let me get to the data. a new wants -- a nuance in the market, lower euro. the vix showing an odd 17.81 in the volume list. sterling stronger, yen does not know where to go, and there is the headline. odd curve flattening off of without questioning safe haven moves into paper worldwide. francine: when you look at stocks we see the relief rally that was started yesterday continuing. the european stocks gaining. banks are gaining some 2.5%. let me get specific onto the banks. cut barclays, hsbc and others after the brexit vote but they fell by so much they are regaining a little bit of ground. tom: let's go to the bloomberg. surface of famed ovd sterling. what this shows on busy axis is axis isty and time -- z volatility and time. there is a massive bet toward weaker sterling. it is rare to see this much of a curve, a smile, or a smirk right here on this bet. the message here is a huge bet, a one-way bet toward weaker sterling. francine: interesting because i chose something simil

global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than a 150 news bureaus around the world. mark? mark: let's get back to the ecb decision. the central bank has been struggling to stoke inflation despite multiple rounds of stimulus. mario draghi addressed the dilemma earlier today. onio draghi: looking ahead, the business of current prices for oil, inflation rates are likely to remain very low or negative in the next few months before picking up in the second half of 2016. it owes to effects in the annual rate of change of energy prices. here,david tinsley is hello. no change, but some excitement. the tweaks the inflation forecast this year by a marginal amount. 2017 and 2018 stay unchanged. mario draghi said the balance of risks improved and we have not seen the full impact of qe. slightly bullish. david: i think the fact that the central inflation forecast in 2018 was unchanged, you could have seen it moved up, given that they announced using in in march.asing the fact they did not means that when we get to march next year, they will carry on with qe. mark: this cha

global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in 150 news bureaus around the world. lind chin with the very latest thank you with the global headlines. disappointing number with the jobs report, how are the markets absorbing this? caroline hyde has the 40 eight-our response. where will begin with bonds, fx, equities -- 48-hour response? the japanese stock market is feeling the pain up 0.7% after the tremendous rally we saw on the yen from the back of the numbers coming from the united states. down goes the dollar, up goes the yen. today, a little bit of a recovery with the dollar index up about 0.25%. commodities a little bit higher. 5% but giving up in the united states on the two-year. let's dig into this particular move. the british pound -- not so great today off by 0.9%, the worst performer on the currency index. keep an eye on wcrf. clearly, money coming out of the pound. anna has a great chart on volatility sparking -- spiking the most since 2009 on the back of new polls. choosing to leave them those who remain. let's look at the onslaught after the u.s. jobs n

global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around theorld. back to you. scarlet: "what'd you miss?" opec maintaining the status quo. on lack of a quota building gained so far this year, up 80% from the 12 year low in january. is no news good news? in the past few have said that saudi arabia strategy of are suing market share at all cost is working, but didn't the kingdom and opec get lucky with a string of supply outages? >> yes and no. yes, there was an element of luck, canadian wildfires, nigerian explosions, etc., but you can look at production coming out of china and mexico and azerbaijan, low oil prices are having a two-pronged impact on oil supply. we are seeing production getting hit because of the sustained low prices and the resulting cut back an in capex. you look at the collapse in nigeria, the collapse in the oila production, workers strike, this is because of lower oil prices. lower oil prices are affecting production around the world. what is next for opec and oil prices? can they go significantly higher later this year? ar

global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around theorld. am taylor breaks. -- taylor riggs. mark: we are 18 minutes away from today's equity session. look at sterling. continues to move, falling against all of its peers. three polls in the last 24 hours showing the "leave" camp are ahead ahead of the upcoming referendum. will have live coverage of federal reserve chair janet yellen when she speaks at the world affairs council at philadelphia. that is 12:30 eastern. you can also see the event on the bloomberg through live go. do not missed analysis from tl ivgo. ♪ mark: live from london and new york, i am mark barton. i am vonnie quinn. this is the "european close." here's a look at the biggest business stories. marginal comments on the pound trade is to rise. the danish bank is telling banks to set aside 10% of their accounts. is planning to sell more than $3 million -- $3 billion to help finance its takeover of enc. securedes after dell $20 billion of investment notes. thursday.ond price is deutsche bank says it is planning to set up

global news 24 hours a day howard by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world, it is battle of the chart. my chart tells you everything you need to know. one week until the brexit vote. ♪ vonnie: time now for our global battle of the charts where we look at charts and what they might mean for investors. you can access these charts on the bloomberg. stocks things off is reporter extraordinaire, oliver renick. oliver: this is a chart based on a story out today on bloomberg news basically looking at what is happening with chinese selling of equities. it has been a story in the past year or so about chinese officials selling u.s. treasuries. but what is happening from the equities standpoint, what we have learned is they are selling stocks. the shows the china remnant -- renminbi spot. this decline -- a little notification to remind me to come up and do the chart. i would move on to mark's chart. the fact that this was largely flat over the past year and you had depreciations in the yuan here and here, we are trying to assess whether they are going beyond the treas

global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. this is a bloomberg. caroline? caroline: thank you very much indeed. we said that the top, billionaire investor sounding the alarm on brexit. joseph searles says the pound could fall 20% if the eu -- if the u.k. votes to leave. he would scale by his sizable investment in the u.k. earlier this month. li king to bloomberg, a-shing spoke to us. >> i hope they don't leave. if brexit happens, it will be detrimental to the u.k. and it will have a negative impact on the whole of europe. it is not the end of the world either. guy: let's welcome our guest, s&p global ratings. you have indicated that you feel the u.k. will lose its aaa status were there to be a leave the vote. is that a binary decision? u.k. votes that way, the rates changes. we are going to see how it goes the first day. is it as binary is that? is not very fuzzy, it is pretty much binary. if brexit wednesday the day, -- if brexit wins the day, it is more likely that remain will win. if brexit wins, the rating which is still

global news 24 hours a day powered by 2400 journalists in 150 news bureaus around the world. k you. yvonne man joining us there. japanese 10-year bond yields have fallen to a record low amid concerns about the outlook for the global economy. nejra cehic joins us with these details and others from the asian trading session. nejra: the risk sentiment we were seeing seems to have fallen back. we've got caution in the markets fueling demand for bonds globally. we've seen the japanese 10-year yield fall to a record low. this after we saw u.k. and german 10-year yields fall to lowe's yesterday. we are seeing this risk off sentiment inequity markets as well. looking at the msci asia-pacific index, that has all in the most -- has fallen the most in a month. we're seeing losses in japan. with that sentiment fueling demand for some of the safer havens, look at the dollar. bloomberg dollar spot index is up for a second day. it is still headed for a second straight weekly decline. we did see a pullback in the dollar after disappointing jobs data on friday. we are seeking gains over the pa

global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the worldi'm mark crumpton. back to you. scarlet: "what'd you miss?" the global economy is not in a recession but u.s. corporate problem -- profits are falling. istead, the global economy holding up. let's ask the leader of the jerome leavy forecast center. why has it not spilled over into the global economy? david: it has, but not as much were quickly as we would have expected. u.s. profits from the third are it on, appearances is not going to have a wonderful quarter in the second quarter either. we are seeing slowing down. we see a slowdown in employment stagnation inen sales but we have not hit the point with the vicious cycle starts to take over. joe: is it going to? david: i think it is likely to. i don't know what would prevent it from saying lower or sinking lower. creationhe wealth where we create more than we are wearing out and that's turning down all over the world. officiallyrkets, know, but expect -- but we suspect yes. we have seen our first down alix: seed that may more. what is

global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around the rld. scarlet: "what'd you miss?" wti crude falling for a sixth straight day. janet yellen's cautious tone about global growth is curbing investor demand for energy and industrial metals. before we get into anything else, give us a perspective on this six-day selloff in crude. does that spell the end of the five-month rebound? have always been of the view that as soon as seasonal demand reaches a peak, which happens on july 4, we would start to see rollover. $39 a barrel for the fourth quarter. our forecasthanged for the last five months. a rebound into the seasonal demand window, then a selloff. we are getting. some people attribute it to brexit, but this is just gasoline demand coming off. gasoline prices have broken lower, trading around $1.45 a gallon, so again this is a natural selloff. we are still constructive into next year, so if prices do come down, we view that as a buying opportunity. structurally, inventories will decline into the fourth quarter and 2017, but the summer as

global news, 24 hours a day, powered by over 2400 journalists and 150 bureaus around the world, this loomberg news. let's get up to speed with markets. there is a great line this morning, the whole market seem scared, frightened. >> that's right. one analyst out of tokyo said that everyone is scared. we are really gearing up for a week of event risks. we do have the boj more uncertain, 30% at last count of economists think the boj might move at this meeting. more think they will move at the end of july, but we have seen the strength in the yen, and that's putting downward pressure on the japanese stocks. to five down, the lowest close in over two months, just risk-- this is aversion 101. down,, goal up, oil equities down, playing out across the region. byg kong down i -- down 6.2%. we are seeing a lot of these resort heavy stocks, petro china down, data dump coming through from beijing, which was not that bad. investment was lower, so investment sensitive basic resources stocks doing poorly. property prices will continue to divert. in terms of the biggest losers, what isn't losing? th

news right now. is stillmanufacturing being encouraged by week global demand. eof the big culprit is oil industry. production of cars, trucks and parts was down 4%, the biggest drop in more than two years. richard branson's virgin atlantic says a new player would if it had -- would depress affairs. norwegian air shuttle is expanding into long-haul flights. the market makes it 70% of virgin atlantic's operations. moore m&a deals on the horizon. speaking at the bloomberg tech conference and san francisco, he gave emily chang his perspective on innovation, acquisitions, and twitter. calls itriend of mine the new york-palo alto arbitrage. linkedinork view is if gets bought, it makes twitter more likely to get bought. the palo alto view is probably the opposite. there is probably one fewer fire. probably made the acquisition of twitter slightly less likely. i am positive there are big companies thinking about it and the deal just depends. we will see who steps up. twitter is now the only public social network besides facebook. can twitter survive? mark: i think twitt

global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the his is bloomberg. francine: thank you so much. markets pretty flat this morning. .et's head to mark barton mark: the biggest rally since august 2015. global the wonderful macro movers function. these are the european equity benchmarks. greece is up 4%. belgium, little change, germany, little change. bonds, the yield on the u.k. two-year is up by a couple of basis points and commodities are down. a very different day then we saw yesterday after a couple of polls show that the outcome of the referendum is still in certain. leaving me to look at the level of sterling against the ftse 100 index, this chart, both of them in recent days to have moved to the downside and then the upside. twocorrelation between the is at levels not seen since 2001. one we would be moving in lockstep and we are at .60. yesterday,se by 3% the most since february 11. the intraday gain was the most since 2011 and it is the best western european benchmark of this year. what a day for the pound yesterday against the

global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the worldfrancine: caroline hyde there with the latest. june is out. july might be too soon. september is not a sure bet. that is the message that economist took from fed chair janet yellen. yellen herself chose to accentuate the positive. cooks the -- >> the economy has been affected by a mix of countervailing forces, i see good reasons to expect the positive force is supporting employment growth and higher inflation will continue to outweigh the negative ones. francine: one of the factors is the u.s. presidential race. hillary clinton secured enough delegates. that is according to an ap count. very clear statement, we are repudiating donald trump. we are getting ready for the fall election. we are going to defeat him if you will vote for me, i will work for you. ourcine: let's introduce guest. he is tim crockford. great to have you on the program . equities, markets in general, all asset classes. are we overplaying it? does it matter if they move in september, november, december? tim: i wonde

global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world'm mark crumpton. back to you. scarlet: "what'd you miss?" the european central bank is entering uncharted territory as it tries to boost the european economy. tracy alloway joins us on the phone from dubai. after this one day, what was your big take away? it has been interesting to watch how they have chosen to undertake the bond buying program. we know they are buying investment rate bonds. don't know exactly how much. they came in exactly with a big splash today and made sure people were talking about it. they also bought some bonds issued by companies in the peripheral eurozone countries, not just france and germany. boughtso, fascinatingly noninvestment grade bonds. that sounds counterintuitive. if a company is has at least one investment-grade rating, they are eligible to have their debt bought. seen this huge rally in investment grade debt. everybody knew this bond buying program was coming. what has been the impact and might it mean there is more juice than investors expected?

global news, 24-hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists, in 150 news bureaus around the world. am taylor raikes. mark: rush's central banks signaling the start of a new easing cycle, cutting its key rate to 10.5%. most invasive decisions since three years ago. the central bank is moving past the crash in oil and to a new round of inflation pressure. we are joined before he jumps on a plane. it is good to see you. inflationary pressures are diminishing? >> absolutely. isyou look at russia, it inflation. the fall to last year it is halved. it is at 7.3%. if you look at the key rate, rush's benchmark rate, it has been flat at 11% today. what you have had happened in russia, is going from a situation where real rates were positive to just around 4%. when you have an economy in recession, sanctions, all kinds of problems, people say that is not helpful. we understand your focused on inflation, but inflation is coming down. give us help. the does not seem to be hoped on the horizon otherwise. vonnie: the ruble has been stabilizing. below 65. we did get import and export data. import

global news, 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. vonnie: thank you. the federal reserve is set to announce a monetary policy for june today. investors don't expect a rate hike this week. janet yellen's news conference -- on the timing of the future increases. our next guest says the bar is too high for a hike. costerg joins us now. so would you say that the nsp that we just got a few days ago, that it gave janet yellen a free pass or it is indicative of the economy weakening? thomas: i think there were signals into report that showed the economy is weakening. working hours are down. temporary jobs are also down. and i think that cycle is slowing down. it will be very difficult for the fed to raise rates. that theomeone said fed needs to increase which is why we are seeing that with the economy. some people are saying that by december we need to cut again? thomas: the fed is very sensitive to economy growth. we have seen that in the past. i think the cycle will slow down. i think that we will decrease by december and i think t