of the private sector to produce weather data. she testified that, quote, in the weather domain we believe it is a promising but still quite prospect to actually have data flows from private sector satellites, unquote. today i am pleased to vun one of the many private sector satellite companies before us to discuss their perspectives on commercial weather date at that. i was encouraged by noaa's bubblingette request for commercial weather which includes funding to continue the commercial weather data pilot program authorized by our house passed weather bill. this pilot program is an important signal to the private sector that noaa is interested in new and innovative sources of data. likewise, i was also encouraged to see noaa inner corporate a line item for the purchase of radio okay ul taigs data as an alternative to another constellation of cosmic satellites. the bill supports both of these initiatives and i'd like to thank my colleagues on that committee, particularly chairman culberson. in light of these directions from congres

some ambiguity in the data. here are some cases where becomes a little ambiguous and activity.lculate the thank you for coming. we appreciate your interest. if you have not done so already, please read the report. [applause] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2015] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] >> members of congress are reacting to the death of i today. all the boxing champion died yesterday at a phoenix area hospital where he was being past few dayse

in the old days you would look for a single data set with the most predictive value -- >> and it worked pretty well. >> and we still use it. today it's easier to mix and match data in. we use utility payment data, telephone payment data, things like that. >> i interrupted you, let's take you with the last question. this is all personal data but how do you incorporate sort of external events which can disrupt everything like the housing crisis? there's a ton of data that allowed for the rise of option r and the explanation was we have all of the technology to do that. and then there were many, many other factors which made all of those go under water or -- >> we do revise and improve the score and we're on fico score 8 is the industry standard today but we have new score fico score xd and 9. so we're constantly improving and there's new data that comes into the picture. >> but is there like a black swan ability to -- you can predict, say, mark's ability to pay but this external event like the asteroid hits, he may not be able to pay. >> that you have to get another way. >> fair enough. w

and not just the real u.s. data. d gillian thinks this is a good idea because of how important market psychology is, especially evidenced by the contagion we saw in 2008, how a crisis of confidence is sometimes more important than what the real data are saying. she writes brexit is a slightly unusual global event in the sense that it is binary and penned to a specific date and given the fed tended to pay too little attention to global market linkages in the past, the fact it is becoming aware of the dangers becomes laudable, not reprehensible. see what happens then. and you have very little. >> i think that binary point is very relevant. you got another meeting just six weeks later, so you can easily wait for that one. not like you have to wait until the end of the year and this event will either be done or not. you don't think will china have improved by then or not. it is pretty simple it seems on the surface, just to wait in june, look ahead to july. a lot of commentators come out and say they're not too worried ab

if the data weakness of the u.s. is a one-off, that is one thing.ut if people start worrying that the data will take a turn for the worse so that equities take a hit, that will have repercussions. short-term, constructive for asia currencies. angie: coming up, the philippines was the destination for millions stolen in one of the biggest heists in modern history. we will see what manila is doing to tackle money laundering and digital crime. ♪ angie: welcome back. the philippines raising digital security after one of the biggest heist in modern history. let's go live to our southeast asia correspondent. : it entails regulation. bet is unregulated will now monitored. digital currencies, placing scrutiny.r tighter it all has to do with rapidly advancing technology. these are all risks -- hackers are more sophisticated. even highly fortified security systems are bound to be breached . making the strategy more about response, not just prevention. cyber attacks -- steps can be taken to mitigate the effects. angie: can the philippine central bank push throu

as we consider the appropriate posture of policy, the question is does the data provide confidence that economic activity have -- have strengthened notably -- has strengthened notably? the labor market has slowed. nonfarm payroll employment increased of 115,000 over the last three months, well below the 220,000 per month average pace over the preceding 12 months. although the unemployment rate moved lower to 4.7%, and voluntary our time employment increased and labor force participation declined. the recent news on inflation, the second leg of our mandate has been mixed. the price of oil has rebounded significantly from the lows reached earlier in the year on expectations that supply and demand are likely to be in closer alignment. the dollar has receded a bit from its peak in january. it is still about 50% above the level. -- 15% above the level. imports seem to stabilize. after a year and a half of declines, these developments coincided with the easing of financial conditions since mid february. the condition supporting further progress on inflation are likely to at least come and par

the data does not support that. do you adjust for the increasing role of stock options and equity in people's income, particularly at the high end, silicon valley. where does that go into the calculations? >> those are initially going to show up as labor income to the executives, and lower-level employees as well who get them. after they exercise them and have the stock, once it is shareholder income, it shows up as capital income. labor and both as capital income depending on when they get exercised. there is this common story that the internationalization of labor and the rise of technology, computers have been good for capital owners, not so good for workers. your data contradicts that. i'm curious why. why hasn't the internationalization of labor and the rise of technology been this boon for capital? if the data does not bear it out, what is wrong with the fundamental story? >> we have a competitive economy. unions try to wall of sections of the economy from competition. there are sort of mini-labor cartels. it

maybe the data will not be there. rishaad: rupert murdoch. myspace. space.ught who uses myspace anymore? over the next quarter of a century, we look where the world will be getting its power from 2040. ♪ manus: it is "bloomberg markets: middle east." we talk about markets. welcome my next guest to the show, the managing director of middle east africa. the elephant in the room is brexit. what i have for you -- let's kick it off. oil markets, gold, the middle east, global equity markets are reacting. the probability of brexit is the white line followed by the spot risk of the british pound. it is getting crushed. from your perspective as a cio, have we even begun to price in brexit? >> will only be able to price it --once we get a sense of how most of what is going on and driving these markets is propaganda. that is what is uncomfortable for the markets. whend similar volatility we had the scottish referendum discussions coming up. in the last two weeks, there was a lot of questions about will scotland stay? some of that you almost need because you get t

yet with the degree of data choppiness and uncertainty around whether or not some of the recent data is a trend or just an anomaly, i wonder if you could comment on the ability to provide guidance that is any more forward looking than two or three weeks based on the data coming to the committee? thank you. >> so let me start by saying that the committee frequently refers to this process of normalizing rates, and i think maybe it's useful to make clear that that's not some independent goal of monetary policy that we have full employment, price stability and normalization of rates. most of my colleagues and i believe in a pretty normal economy, it's likely to be appropriate to have a higher level of interest rates, perhaps not the historical average, but something higher than we've had in recent years. even that, what is a normal level of interest rates in a normal economy, i tried to emphasize, let me say again, it's something over which we have to be uncertain. there have been shifts in the economy. i think the current level of neutral or normal rates is pretty low. i do believe that

shery: we saw the dollar plunging after that jobs data. the movement in the dollar -- where do they see the dollar going forward? gyrations and correlations could be all over the place, but over the term, i think a strong dollar will ultimately continue to wear on coittee prices. that commodity prices. more secular strengthen the dollar based on the fact that the shale phenomenon in the u.s. is enabling the u.s. to grow with less account deficits. the fact that we are importing ass oil is really making difference in the availability of u.s. dollars outside u.s. which can serve as an ultimate headwind for all commodities going forward. shery: how is the behavior changing now? bruno: a great time to ask that question. we got data that u.s. producers added nine oil rigs to the fields. we spend time between 45 and 50 and boom, nine rigs appear in the field again. producers were making serious ground in becoming profitable at $50, particularly the volumetrically significant producers. they tend to concentrate on basins where they have real fiel

if the data continues to be in line with my outlook. that's a slow and gradual increase this year. >> and accor declines to comment about the hotel group. >>> hi, everybody. welcome back. you are still watching "street signs" here on cnbc. the services pmi data for the uk just hitting our wires, 53.5 in may versus 52.3 in april. so that's quite a bit higher than what we saw in april. it is also quite a bit higher than the poll put out by reuters of 52.5. the uk, all sector pmi rising to 52.8 in may versus 51.9 in april. the survey suggesting that economic growth has been slowing to 0.2% in the second quarter versus 0.4% seen during q-1. market is saying it is the weakest measure of new business since late 2012. hiring, they point out, listen to this, at a 33-month low. they're saying expectations in the service sector improved, but that a lot does still hinge on an eu referendum, which, is coming up here in three weeks time. three weeks time, exactly three weeks. so that data just hitting right now. let's check in on our u.s. market as w

the data really -- if the data really reflects where the u.s. economy is now and job creation is 70k, markets will move towards the worst outcome. risk of recession rising. which owled not be -- which would not be good. if the data gets better, what we saw last week, then the fed is back in the picture pretty quickly. we're not really buying that big risk on reaction to the data. >> daniel, you have to come back very san. >> definitely, thank you. >> daniel katzive director of fx strategy. there's just about 18 minutes left until the european close. much more ahead on "bloomberg markets." we'll dive into the fiscal policy debate live from brussels. >> there are many in political region to delay structural reforms. there are very few good economic ones.the cost of delay simply too high. >> an event outside of the white house right there today. president obama is meeting with bernie sanders this morning. the two are set to meet. we also be continuing to monitor bernie sanders will be holding a rally tonight in washington d.c. also meeting with cap

the housing market has been a bright spot in the data we received. how big a bright spot is that for the fed? guy: a tremendous bright spot. also a small portion of the overall economy. 19% annualized and yet, that was only enough to add .1% to the overall gdp number. there are some knock on effects that are not measured. encourage home prices the wealth affect. that has been in fed policy since the great recession. shery: we are seeing the fed fund futures right now. traders seeing a probability of 53% of the hike in july. what do you think about the pace of the rate hike cycle right now? guy: there is certainly no urgency. running at a sub 2% level and growth is moderate. there is no urgency to the path of rate hikes, but it is clear that officials would like interest rates to normalize to some degree. pace.ce is a snail's whether the fed raises interest rates in june or july, it does not matter all that much. 1% from atg rates, most 1.5% and that provides a certain degree of comfort to relatively low bond yields. david: a lot of this information is

the data i was describing to you come from the administrative data that the department of education hason student loans including the fafsa which you all no and love. so those data, nor for that matter the irs data, nothing in there about race. what you can say is you can try to peace it together. if you look at who attends for-profit institutions community college disproportionately going to be hispanic, african-american, those populations also have much lower wealth levels, for a given level of income if you compare an african-american family, the african-american family will have lower wealth. something that builds over multiple generations. so you need to have not only apparent by your parents parent and your parents parent to have had good incomes for many years for you to end up with wealth and also not of had it seized and appropriated and institutionalized ways that it has been in the us. >> we know that there is disparities according to government data, college graduates were minorities are earning per hour after college versus their white counterparts. a lot of mixture there.

if you look at the data. and of course, that is part of the reason that we have to be very, very careful in protecting and preserving the progress we're making here at home because in the united states, while consumption makes up a very large portion of the overall aggregate growth, it's not strong enough, really, to carry the burden of global growth in a world where globally, aggregate demand is quite weak. >> you know, you mentioned in your remarks, i would paraphrase them by saying take it step by step. and, yet, some economists are arguing quite vehemently that we should raise interest rates lest we create a bubble and the problem of tomorrow. and give some information about how we would respond to those economists. >> so i think if you look across the set of economic conditions that we take into account as we assess what the appropriate stance of monetary policy is, you know, we have very specific goals of full employment and 2% inflation. and while we've made considerable progress on the employment leg o

the eurozone. services and composite data. the final estimate, 53.3, slightly above the surveyed 53.1, and the prior estimate of 53.1. that means the composite, the amount of manufacturing and services has been tweaked up to 53.1 from the earlier estimate of 52.9. servicesght uptick for and the composite index the day hisr mario draghi and colleagues sat on their hands. right. let's get on to the markets today. have a look at what is happening as we approach the big one. the jobs report. the stoxx europe 600 is heading for the first weekly drop in do four. the euro little changed against the dollar ahead of the big jobs report later. week has risen for the first week in five against the dollar. -dollarng in the euro was less than a cent. that is the weakest ecb day move something we will speak about and a second. the yield on the two-year is unchanged. the spread between the u.k. two-year is the highest in 16 years, head of the upcoming referendum. bonds surged by record after the commodity trader asked shareholders for half $1

erik schatzker is in washington with the latest economic data. give us the interesting points of the book this time around. >> the book could have strengthened a case for a rate ite two weeks from now but did not. you heard those words and you said it yourself, modest. the key word in these anecdotal reports, modest economic growth, modest wage increases, modest hiring. not an assessment that turns doves into hawks. if anything, it raises the stakes for friday's jobs report. you have to figure policymakers are struggling. there is a tight labor market. there are signs of building inflation as a backdrop. you have consumer spending just yesterday, home sales, and that surprisingly strong manufacturing data reported this morning. then you have the book you might characterize, as i have, as meh. there is just not a lot to go off of here. the index rose 51.3 in may from 50.3 in april. when the economist we surveyed were looking for a decline. the beige book showed manufacturing declining in four regional fed12 districts. the silver lining, six of thos

they collect data from the oil well, they have telemetry data from the oil well and bring in a lot ofee how much they invest in it, how much have they been able to produce for it and get a full picture of the oil well and the full profitability. >> when oil's at 100, you can drill anywhere and you make money. if oil's at 47, you don't want to drill if it's a $60 well. >> when i look from a maintenance perspective, when i look at the track record of what this oil well is, they're able to gather that data and make some very important decisions on what they need to do to keep that oil producing. >> we keep hearing another thing in the big theme is artificial intelligence. how would informatica play. >> we bring the data for intelligence. so think of this nordstrom example. once you have the complete picture of the customer, then you can use the artificial intelligence on top to provide a recommendation to the customer. you can say hey, you bought this, you may also be interested in these other things. or in the conocophillips example. is this well going to be operating till its next mant

have, what data points we not have? that the opportunity to this process in year one breast to make a shift if needed as we begin to implementation work in year two. >> [inaudible] >> >> so we began to collect baseline data to understand where things currently are. it's a work in progress. we have to do a bit of benchmarking to help inform where we set our targets, and whether the charges were having, as mentioned by deputy superintendent, we want to look through a lot of different equity lenses, and often summit data we want to look at is not available. so where looking into creating kind of a survey to help supplement some of the data we currently have, i do source that would address some of the questions that are not currently available through our various surveys were testing were measures that exist to kind of supplement that but i think there'll be an ongoing challenge for us. something we hope to see change your time is our agencies, systems collecting more data two more lenses to up was really kind of, as dr. mcafee said

lael: a part of the data we look at relates to sentiment. [laughter] again, if we look at some of the most recent consumer sentiment indicators, they look resilient, which is reassuring. but, there are different lags in terms of how people respond to changes in their perceptions. we don't really know going forward whether consumers are going to continue to feel buoyant and see the kind of consumption numbers we saw in april carrying through further into the second quarter, which of oars is a bury -- very important factor driving growth. but, it is an argument for being a little bit patient in terms of reading more signals on the economy, not just on actual spending, but on how those consumers and businesses are feeling about spending. it goes in the same direction, which is, we want to have greater confidence that growth rebound is really in place. >> this table. yes. >> thank you. sheri stevens. i want to go back to the discussion of productivity. to me, that really seems to be a very, very significant concern. the one half percentage growth

prudent risk management would suggest the risks from waiting until the totality of the data provides greater confidence in a rebound and domestic activity and there is greater certainty regarding the brexit vote, seem lower than the risks associated than heading over the developments. in light of that amplified feedback loop, when conditions are appropriate for a policy move, it will be important that any subsequent moves will be conditions and further evidence confirming continue progress and objectives and not ineffable steps on a preset course. the appropriate path to return monetary policy to a neutral stance could turn out to be quite shallow and gradual in the medium-term because it appears likely that the medium-term, neutral rate, or the real federal funds rate that would be consistent with the economy remaining a full employment and 2% inflation, may be quite low. recovery seems like the low level of the natural rate was largely due to cyclical factors such as tight credit, weak consumer confidence, and the loss of wealth from the crisis. however, the recovery is now well int

have, what data points we not have? that the opportunity to this process in year one breast to make a shift if needed as we begin to implementation work in year two. >> [inaudible] >> >> so we began to collect baseline data to understand where things currently are. it's a work in progress. we have to do a bit of benchmarking to help inform where we set our targets, and whether the charges were having, as mentioned by deputy superintendent, we want to look through a lot of different equity lenses, and often summit data we want to look at is not available. so where looking into creating kind of a survey to help supplement some of the data we currently have, i do source that would address some of the questions that are not currently available through our various surveys were testing were measures that exist to kind of supplement that but i think there'll be an ongoing challenge for us. something we hope to see change your time is our agencies, systems collecting more data two more lenses to up was really kind of, as dr. mcafee said

and yet, with the degree of data and uncertainty around whether the recent data is a trend or anomalywonder if you could comment on the ability to provide guidance that is any more forward-looking than two or three weeks based on the data coming to the committee? me start by: let saying the committee frequently refers to this process of normalizing rates. i think maybe it is useful to make clear that that is not some independent goal of monetary policy that we have full employment, price stability, and normalization of rates. most of my colleagues and i believe, in a pretty normal economy, it is likely to be appropriate to have a higher level of interest rates, perhaps not the historical average, but something higher than what we have had in recent years. -- what is a normal level of interest rates in a normal economy? i tried to emphasize, let me say again -- it is something over which we have to be uncertain. there have been ships in the economy. i think the current level of neutral or normal rates is pretty low. now, i do believe that will tend to rise over time, which if it does,

we're working hard on defining all the data. that takes a huge amount of work and patrick is leading that work putting together the teams making sure we have the data analytic support we need to do this work, and then the other thing is take a step back and make sure that all of our initiatives especially in primary care are well aligned with where prime is asking us to go and that's been something of a challenge because we have a lot of different initiatives so to bring them together and say they're the true north. they align with with prime and gpp as well as black and african-american health and some other important drivers of improvement in hour network. this is the vision for primary care. prime and the global payment program as well as whole person care and the dental initiative are huge programs that take a lot of work that we're struggling to keep up with you know creating data systems to be able to report and improve on 57 different metrics but as i mentioned earlier all of us working on this feel this is the right way t

>> well a lot of the data. olled 10,000 employees and look across almost 200 different job titles in technology and then averaged all of those salaries, looked at how the differences broke out and add a third characteristic. we were surprised to seat findings too. what the data probably poin s to is that more of the high-paying jobs, engineers or executive roles are most likely going to men in those cities compared to women did you suppose any had shrinking. minneapolis, d.c. and others. san francisco at one point maybe five ten years ago is shh ringing? or other cities across the country? >> well, we're going be publishing data. we launched our platform three months ago and gotten a lot of press and tens of thousands of people signing up. in the next three, six, nine month thes the trend. >> another category and that's age. we just highlighted some of the cities but it appears that young women enterings tech industry have it pretty tough compared to women of other ages. 18 to 25 years old there's a 29% disparit

it is inline with our thinking and the data. those things have stabilized, their influence is dissipating. with respect to core inflation, which is partially influenced also by the dollar, but trying to pull out the dollar and import price influence, but core inflation seems to be behaving roughly as one would expect with well anchored inflation expectations and an improving labor market. so, i'm not seeing anything -- inflation even core inflation, it is well under 2%. i continue to think the evidence supports a projection that it will move up over the next couple years, back toward our to present objective. -- toward our 2% objective. in the past, economic series suggests that inflation expectations are relative to price. so, we do monitor indicators of inflation expectations carefully. now, it is very hard to know exactly what inflation excitations are relevant to actual price and wage decisions. and so, for example, we have seen the michigan survey, a measure of household inflation and expectations move down. it is a prelimin

the data shows the opposite. that along with this rise of e-cigarettes, we are seeing a decline in teen smoking, which is inconsistent with a gateway effect, and probably consistent with a gateway out effect. adults ank about deterrent from quitting. e-cigarettes impede quitting. but, although this looked at 18 studies, the basic principle of the garbage in which out applies. which is if you put together 18 studies that are not valid issue, you of the do not generate from that a valid assessment of the issue. among the problems with their studies, was that -- those studies, was that the people who were not smoking at the time of assessment, were not counted. anyone who actually succeeded years ago in quitting with e-cigarettes is not counted. then we try to assess the effect of e-cigarettes on quitting. but also that the studies often a look at long ago e-cigarette use in relation to current smoking. like imaginee bit a study that you did that shows that someone who took an aspiring of one da -- one day when they

if the voice recorder is not available, data recorder is probably the best of both worlds to have.ven if you have neither of those, information from the aircraft itself, if you find the aircraft, you'll see if there's any incendiary fuel and you also are able to tell structural failure or if the engines were under power, had power going into them when they hit the water, a lot of information from three sources. >> thanks. >>> just ahead, the killing of kate steinle sparked outrage on sanctuary cities. >>> the family of kate steinle filed a federal lawsuit taking aim at the debate over illegal immigration. almost a year ago, steinle was fatally shot in san francisco. the man charged with the killing was an undocumented immigrant with a long record. san francisco is one of 300 sanctuary cities that passed laws limiting and in some cases prohibiting local officials from cooperating with federal officials. they aren't allowed to give a heads up when an undocumented immigrant is released from jail. immigration says it makes it harder and supporters say they're necessary. pamela brown di

my new show of the data -- the new show of the data of the inflationary forces in china.any people talk about the pricing number out of china, which has been of course -451 months now. they say this is one of the big headaches they are dealing with. because they have been exporting deflation. we had this chart that shows we are still in deflation, the factory gate. but not as much as we were. is this a good news story for global central banks and investors? jim: i think we have to get used to a bit of deflation because of technology. that is the reason why prices are coming down. production, a lot of good reasons why in the supply side of the economy. also on the demand side, the products that we are now buying have much better product quality and more functionality than before. and a lot of price erosion going on in the world economy. anna: it was not all about oil, just a temporary thing associated with oil prices. this is something that will be a headache, dealing with this new challenge trying to create central banks to come. should give up on it. i don't think inflat

seize the data! get unlimited data when you have at&t wireless and directv. get up to $650 credits, per line. you wouldn't order szechuan without checking the spice level. it really opens the passages. waiter. water. so why would you invest without checking brokercheck? check your broker with brokercheck. what are you doingetting faster. huh? detecting threats faster, responding faster, recovering faster. when your security's built in not just bolted on, and you protect the data and not just the perimeter, you get faster. wow, speed kills. systems open to all, but closed to intruders. trusted by 8 of 10 of the world's largest banks. >>> welcome back to "power lunch." checking out what's happening with some of these gun related stocks like ruger and smith & wesson, you see a sharp drop. the national criminal -- instant criminal background check system, this is the system run by fbi for background checks on fire arms showed slowing growth in the month of may versus before that in april. that's being put on for some of the move lower and some of the gun related

so i want to look at the data of the action, today, one of the worst performing aggregates. this is a two-panel chart. the transport itself. what it shows is the relative performance to the s&p. as a relative strength line itself. what we know is important. even as you were making new highs here, this matched its old high. it's making new relative lows. not participating in line with the market. so let's draw some lines. i think you can draw them. like that. i'm going to make a bet that we're going to -- after this countertrend rally, the bet we're making on citibank earlier, again, this is going to fail. again, importantly, down this week. down today. it just can't -- this is what an upgrade in union pacific. second and third biggest weight from the street. still lagging in the market. >> all right. mike, you agree. >> we got a lot of negative information on the transports this week as well. first of all, we talk about the jobs number. look at the trade deficit numbers, though, embedded in all that is basically a decline in trade. both imports and exports, about 5%. that's

the core. i'm looking at very ugly data. or should we start thinking about the economy as a peripheral eurozone country and germany really is flying solo? participants, you are right. we look at germany. to us that is the core. has accidentally opened the door to that thinking a couple meetings ago. they talked about fiscal stimulus and for those countries that have the balance sheet capacity to do so maybe they should. everyone understood that to mean germany. i think you now have the core which is germany. which nowhe semi-core includes france and you have the periphery. challenging to set monetary policy across all those different types of borrowers. david: we have a chart showing the pmi numbers. challenge for the eurozone overall is there trying to manage it as an economy and it is several different economies in very different places headed in different directions. >> it's true. the ecb is trying to open the door to fiscal spending coming out of germany. if you think about the german condition, they benefit from a lot of

michael mckee reversal. .t goes right back bring on the second data screen as well. moment.how it in the a strong end. michael, very quickly. i know you have got an important, it. all you need to know is down we go. this is crushing. there is no other way to put it. are you ready? >> it is already updated. you can see what. is just talking about. a number of people have moved the forecasted down and now the consensus is basically, if you are looking at the median, one more move will take us to a range of 50 or 75 basis points. we are not expecting to more moves this year. there is a substantial number of people who think we should have att went all the way over the left-hand side. it looks like they're pricing in four moves just over 1.6% and then you go all the way out to the longer-term and you are 2.95.g at line.n see the purple you can see the market expectation has moved up a little bit as well as they digest what the fed has seen. they want to move closer together and the market wants them to move down maybe not as much as they have. >> it was the fed that came

. >> we want to have the collective datas are from the consumers and the datas are from the business.> yes, so data is very important to him, and, yeah, basically he is developing the cloud likem amazon and break out in the future, and you know the four major areas for alibaba, the cloud, marketplace, and what they are calling the mobile media and entertainment, and innovations technology, and the big topic that people wanted more clarity on is what he made headlines with last night. >> the problem is that the fake products today, they make better quality, better price than the real product, the real names. >> yes, so better than the real goods. ma goes on the say that they are more confident than fixing the fake issue, and addressing the inv investor issues of movies and sports and going back to the opportunities in china for health and leisure, and as you have heard there, carl, he is a big ambitions for jack ma, but he said that he has had the big ambitions for 17 years, and people continue to call him crazy. >> thank you, susan li back at hq. and jason e over to you first, and big

they can get it back to 55% based on a brexit remain vote and based on the data on claims and on the s data for june that comes out the first week of july signaling the june number was more noise than a signal. >> what would be considered a big surprise out of the statement or the news conference this afternoon? >> one of the things i would look for is the evolution of the dot, it is likely that the dots will shift lower, we've seen that time and again as the fed kind of brings their trajectory closer to what the market is saying. but if that median dot shifts to only one hike for this year and three hikes for next year versus the prior estimates of two and four, that would indicate that it was more than just a wait and see fed. it is one that is actually redefining gradual and saying we'll be slower, we have more risks, the economy is a bit more vulnerable. that would be a surprise and we're not looking for that kind of reaction. >> i want to talk about what is happening with fixed income in particular. we made history yesterday when the bond in germany fell below zero. a lot of peop

everyone is looking at the same data. everyone is looking at the same reimbursement data. to do now is predicting the future. how much will reimbursements look? how has the salesforce held up? these are all questions that obviously everyone is looking for. the answers are not on -- not obvious and the stock is telling placew it is running in right now. considering that everyone looks at the same drug data, that's the amazing thing. the same number of prescriptions are filled, but everyone has the same questions. some people say it's worth 60, others say zero. i bought them as a trade. but what i also thought was better is that since valiant, as i mentioned, we are starting to see some differentiation in the pharmaceutical names. but what's happening with allergan right now. that's wonderful news about it. brent sanders is just a total superstar. the fight that they put against valiant turned out to be smart and they are putting into the bucket of good pharma. similarly, the criticisms i've had -- i have deep criticisms. i think that companies main product is a complete jok

right now, the data tells me we're -- >> i don't know if we're close to it. industrial production, if you measure it -- >> the last 12 months, people have been crying about the bull market for the last six years. >> one at a time. hold on. one at a time. >> i mean, the data right now does not say recession. technically -- >> you sound like it's -- if things were as good as you painted it out to be -- >> i didn't paint a rosy picture. i say it's below trend growth but i don't think it's going into recession. >> you said negative rates would push people into equities here. >> and yields will go lower. >> when you're flattening all growth, gdp, global gdp hopefully at 2%, all the money comes off the table. >> i have one question here tonight. i think most people here at least -- at the very least -- i've got more than one. the most important question on my mind right now, at the very least everyone agrees we're in a low growth environment. whether or not it leads to recession, that's where it seems like you guys are divided. in a low growth environment, as we hav

of the consumer of finances which is one of the key data sets that is going to give us insight into what is happening. akdcademic work on this topic while it has focused to some extent more on the trade more broadly also looks at the importance of the phenomenon called skull bias the technological change meaning that the technological change in decades has continually shifted demand from the less skilled workers to the more skilled workers. >> and now, an additional factor, the technological change has occurred and the shift over seas has been due to lower wage, and not technological factor, and because in fact, they have been packaging up our machines to ship them over, there and that is not technological trade, but it is a issue of trade change. and so tech now logical change does have an impact, but in the situation where there is more higher skilled demand as you have pointed out, demand for the higher skilled jobs, education is important. >> that is right. >> but as compared to higher education, and be it higher skilled training or college is far more expensive, and it is

the most since june 2013. that is according to data. putting 10 percentage points at the end of the day. it is down for a fourth day. since april.vel going to fixed income assets once again. that is pulling it down a fifth consecutive day for them as a german 10 year yield is back up. >> is in the newsroom. emma: clinton is the presumptive nominee and tomorrow is the last primary in d.c.. meanwhile house speaker paul ryan says he doesn't agree with donald trump's call to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, but he is still standing by his endorsement. british prime minister david cameron is hoping rivals in the labour party can stop the u.k. from leaving the european union. gordon brown will make the case to stay in the eu today. labor support is crucial. >> yes of course there would be concerns in the financial market. yes there would be uncertainty for a number of years. the real challenge for the country would be this, that britain would be. >> the referendum is 10 days from now. german -- german chancellor on: merkel is trying

you need to understand what the data is telling us. i'm not discounting the fires in the mission can i have as much concern as anybody in this room for what went on in the mission could answer but the city. my point was simply this. i was explaining to you were providing information as to why those numbers are that way. that part was left out earlier and it terrified indicating more detail on that. so, we can call that a circular conversation at all just respond to. number two, i did not say, sir, i did not say that the fires in the mission are due to just because of the old structure. i didn't say this. that there are multiple factors that contribute to the fires of which one of them is the type of occupancy. the type of structure. the age of the structure. the density. etc. the fire department access. we can go on and on. we can look at all that i took it on the point into one thing to simplify things and to throw up a smokescreen in the not discounting it at all. same we need to look at all these factors did that was the point of my

so all of the data can be aggregated and analyzed and processed called machine learning to basically increase the safety, increase the reliability and lower the cost and lower the environmental impact of power generation -- >> that's where c3iot comes in. to this decade $2 trillion is being spent to update the energy channel. >> are you competing with general electric? how do you fit in this sphere of so many competitors and devices? >> we're four or five organizations who purport to build platforms for building iot operations. the general electric has spent i think 4 or $5 billion in the last two years, spending hundreds and millions of dollars on advertising for the platform for operations. to my knowledge as of today, i'm unaware if they have a product or one customer in production -- >> doesn't ge, when they make -- they make the turbines right? would they build those into the energy products they make and speak a language? they are sort of like apple, aren't they. >> the world's greatest 19th century company, pumps and turbines and. >> and they speak their language. >> they have

when you look at college educated unemployment all-time low there's nor nuance to the data. some of the jobs are not coming back. and some people need to reshuffle it to other areas of the labor market. it's unfortunate. it takes forever. it makes the data sloppier than we would otherwise like it. but this is a gigantic economy, and everything's going to be a little bit sloppy. so i think it's one month. let's not throw ourselves off a bridge. >> walmart announcing it will test grocery delivery using uber and lyft. just one of the initiatives announced today at that shareholder meeting. we're live at the event. plus, we're looking for the best ways to make money in real estate and one investor says just follow the jobs. the good jobs, that is. private equity investor steve leblanc is coming up next. we're good. okay... what if a million people download the new app? we're good. five million? good. we scale on demand. hybrid infrastructure, boom. ok. what if 30 million people download the app? we're not good. we're total heroes. scale on demand with the number one company in cl

the data is very volatile. it's subject to heavy revisions. 've got to take it with a grain of salt and the trend is quite strong. so the labor market still looks strong. the consumer 3.5% for real consumption growth in the second quarter. the consumer is still alive and kicking. the domestic market is strong. >> what do you look at the incorporate numbers? >> we're still seeing signs of g.d.p. and labor income to g.d.p. it's still relatively low. labor costs are low. so there still is an incentive for companies to continue hiring. wages are rising but they're rising gradually and the overall labor costs is still relatively low. alex: you don't think we are going to see the downgrade in projections. but by 50 basis points in not that long of a time and that has big implications for the broader tightening cycle. what do you think we see there? >> longer term is less. definitely the average dot, the mean dots will move on. median is less certain. but i think it'll be a question of whether the fed is willing to capitulate on that. they want to rem

the near term. we prefer determined data to point to. we have been somewhat bearish and we are just waiting for the turn. >> i should clarify it was more about the fact that they could be a correction because it is likely portfolio managers will draw down yields for long now when it is close to that time. do you think we will see that? >> i do not know. those are tough calls. a nice rally off the bottom of january. a lot of that was sponsored by the unwinding of higher and more aggressive fed policy. we came into the year, a more aggressive global economy could have handled that. those expectations could have with thek, certainly relatively weak jobs number off the table now, everything has moved higher as a result of the paring back of expectations. but i do not expect that to happen again. i think that one particular phenomenon is something that was about the last two or three months are not likely to occur again in the next two or three months. do you think it will continue to move and we will not see a further deterioration? it is way

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>> well, if the data the break, and we are in the middle off what is a second-quarter rebound and ifff of that, and the inflation fails to rise, summers is right, and we could be looking at a policy reversal if the data reverses. >> steve, you have a busy afternoon ahead, and we will talk to you soon. steve liesman for cnbc. >> and meanwhile, a day in the uk. and simon hobbs is here with that and the news across europe. >> you can see the stock markets are higher and we have broke anne five-day losing streak, but it is worth noting the damage in the course of the five days. many markets, and individual markets are down 6, 7%, and banks in europe down some 10%, a and they have lost a quarter of the value so far this year. showing a chart of that if we can and then move on. i want to talk -- thank you very much -- and you can see tracking lower here, and the damage done as the brexit is coming to the fore, and moving the markets across not just in the uk of course. and you have seen the miners moving up, and the anglo's coal disposals and hb billiton had a $6 billion civil suit in braz

we got the gdp data, a little better than expected, but still contraction. so, brazilian pmi, a dismal number. where is the currency going from here? does it need to weaken further to improve bruising competitiveness? weaken, has it gotten disconnected from the fundamentals? >> the last thing the economy needs is for the currency to become overvalued again. different approaches to estimate fair values. the currency is slightly overvalued at the current valuation. we need at this stage is a competitive currency, a currency that lists the industrial sector. consolidation of the adjustment of the current is consolidated is when we see the first signs of a buddingeconomy -- economy. like there's a lot of risks out there. risk ofir yet another that market will see some kind of correction? are market participants pricing in these risks? best-performing markets year to date. a lot of hope invested in the political transition and that will beng president able to deliver the type of policies needed. capable from ae political standpoint to build the necessary consensus

but we really need to look at the data. i cannot pre-specify a timetable. i am not comfortable to say it is in the next meeting or two, but it could be. not impossible. it is not impossible that by july, for example, we would see data that lead us to believe that we are in a perfectly fine course, and that data was an aberration and other concerns in the past. we are in election season. in the past, the fed has been sensitive to making policy changes in election years. you have three more meeting before the november presidential election. could you comment on whether or not the election will come into , and any concern that if you change policy ahead of the election -- based on your forecast today, you could -- are you concerned that that could lead to charges that the fed is trying to change policy to influence the outcome of the election? because if it has been sensitive to that in the past. are verylen: we focused on assessing the economic outlook and making changes that are appropriate without taking politics into account. look, if the incoming data were