the macro is fine. the earnings are okay. >> if you were to look 18 months out and it wasn't just fast money, what would you buy at the moment? what shows value 18 months down the line? you mentioned oil. >> when you say 18 months down the road, where are rates going to be? are they still going to be obscenely low? you still buy utilities and staples. the market ran 9% and utilities and staples are within 1% of their all-time highs. >> you know, we've talked about this actually. you have this little stealth rally in the biotechs if you look. now, back in january, oil started to creep higher and it didn't -- it caught a lot of people off guard. the first $10 or so were a stealth move. i think you're seeing the same thing if you look at the biotechs. politicians seem to have forgotten about it. it held a level 240 that we have talked about for months on this show. you get that ibb to 285, it's off to the races. >> 'dowhy does it get to 285. i look at bank of america at $15, the ibb at 285. we've seen the m

about the macro agenda. w-- let's talk about the macro agenda.hat we have a rate decision today. keeping rates low "has unintended consequences." >> the answer to high growth in financial stability is not in the hands of the fed, but of the other policymakers. fed continues with interest rates being too low it risks unintended consequences. markets however, see no chance of a market hiking this time around. still with us, kokou agbo-blous. kokou, if you look at the work function on bloomberg, you can see there is not yet a 50% chance of a rate hike being priced in this year by markets. not yet, 49%, though. has been moving up steadily and has changed a lot since june 24. kokou: absolutely. many do not expect a rate hike this year. they do however, expect two rate hikes next year. this is ultimately, because of all of the banner events. when you look at the italian referendum, for example. but you also have the u.s. election, which could be a catalyst for more volatility. the fed is essentially telling us they will take their time before going int

. >> meantime in the macro land, kuroda kor row da saying japan central bank is ready to expand monetary stimulus further in needed to achieve 2% inflation target. made no mention of the brexit vote and the comments do come as speculation is growing that the bank of japan will ease policy at the meeting this monday. stronger yen and weaker consumption have weighed on the economy. people are on high alert for intervention in the market. there's the dollar yen. hovering around the dollars level. looks like for now the market is not quite testing the bank of japan, but if you do see this period of a big selloff. >> it's a sign of the times. main focus was mr. karrny. >> the question of whether he's the adult in the room or that he deserves criticism for kind of weighing in politically. >> >> people have mutual fund past the political criticism now. questioning whether they had the correct plans in place. it seems to be they have although some of the comments. >> he's the only one doing anything over there. >> we don't have any politicians in place at the moment. >> correct. >> credit rating

the market is not pricing it in, it is to driven by the macro --too driven by the macro. had a run back from 100 to 106. it is binary, to the august -- to be honest. where does the extra money go to generate growth? that is the problem. we just had our quarterly update on all of the markets and we remained overweight on japanese equities. sentenceuld use that for everything. the problem with japanese phil ll inhe blank -- -- fi the blank. >> when we had zero interest rate policy, that changed and people got worried. that was the clear catalyst. locally, they do not believe it. what gives then? will be helicopter money? >> i think they will be in a bad situation for quite a long time. raise a lot more than they are saying, where can ago? china can create growth by investing that money. but japan cannot because it is already there. that is the problem. sure that we put the right stocks as fund managers. in the next few months, it will be driven by government policy. after that, it will be much more difficult. x is there any particular sector that you like? ok inerials are l

the: lettuces view of market in the macro environment? hat is his view of the market in the macro environment? francine: he is cautious. it was clear i asked him about whether he was expecting the ipo or the partial ipo of the swiss bank to go to plan, he said yes, in 2017 markets permitting. he says things are looking better in terms of restructuring execution within the bank. there is still a lot of uncertainty out there, but what he wants to do is put a bank in place that is more streamlined, more lean so they can focus on growth. so they can try and withstand whatever the macroeconomy throws at them. mark: we will speak to you later, francine lacqua. another story making headlines is the fed. it is a slow crawl to hike number two. it may have begun. policymakers took a step toward raising rates later this year, stopping short of signaling the move could come as soon as september. the fmo see upgraded its assessment of the economy and yesterday's statement saying new term risks to the outlook have diminished, despite a more just remaine

i think if we slowly go back to the macro economic theme for the markets and away from brexit and riskion, that i think the dollar could perhaps come under a bit of selling pressure as investors look at the idea that perhaps the fed don't do anything in 2016. francine: thanks for staying with us. the european head of global market research at bank of tokyo mitsubishi. we will be joined by james bullard at 10:00 a.m. in london. here on bloomberg tv. up next, we hear from the barclays ceo who tells us how the bank's plan in a post-brexit world exists. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: welcome back. this is "the pulse." let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash. nejra: takata is tumbling after an urgent warning from the u.s.. owners of more than 300,000 hondas and acuras should have the airbags replace. a farshow they have higher risk of exploding than other models. the company says executives will take pay cuts over the recall. oracle has been ordered to pay $3 billion to hp after a jury found that larry ellison and his company violated a contract to support software for hp's titan

the market. talking about a lot of individual stocks and we're going to hit a lot more. i promise all of you that. go big. go macro. atul, if you think the market is frothy here, as jim does, what sectors do you want to rotate into? >> look for, from an equities allocation, equities versus bonds. drilling into that. we like u.s. housing. a powerful cyclical and secular behind u.s. housing. interest rates at record lows. it's really the single best time to be going out and looking to buy a house for a u.s. potential homeowner. u.s. housing on top. sector pick followed why in. like u.s. comp assumption, i mentioned earlier. rotating away from retail into more experiences and media names as well. so they're the top two sectors within the u.s. and we like technology. a strong secular story behind technology. productivity growth is the answer to how we can see strong global growth in the years ahead, and technology is the best way to play that. >> jim, point, counterpoint. maybe you agree? >> terrific. i think home depot hangs in there. people still spending on the home. i bet if we asked why we really like tj, home go

filing it away from some of the macro drivers and so on. we're starting to see some pick up. see a potential step to the upside in value. .t is likely an increase francine: will get back to banks in the second but overall -- the negative rates compared to the fact that there is about a stock usually undersold? >> going back to the risk versus value. -- it has taken the rest of the market with it. therefore earnings are dramatically important. a lot of the work has been done -- not by the peas. seeing a season that is coming up better than expected in the u.s. it is important for future prices. francine: i want to talk about tech. revenues and profits beat estimates. meanwhile chipmaker arms holding -- arm holding missed estimates. we'll get earnings from amazon.com. that is just -- what does it mean? how do you look at tech? we talked six muska about being in a bubble. -- we talked six months ago about being in a bubble. resilient despite everyone saying the contrary. >> thing happened over the last six months which was a huge implosion price momentum. that did unwind a lot o

like a very different topic, but i use the same type of analysis about how you look at things on the macro level, and that would be the world of pro sports and cities courting sports teams and the second is how you get a bill done with various special interest groups and everyone fighting with each other and the real -- the weird alliances that take lace to get it done, and the third was implementation, and i talked to all the people on the stadium commission who decided where it would be located at the time, whether in minneapolis or bloomington minnesota, and they chose minneapolis and it was about how the stadium, way back in the early 80's got done on time and under budget. let's forget about the fact that it collapsed a few times, the demise of the stadium when it was finally deflated for the time, planneds deflation, that we would stop hearing the jokes like how you should not where he pointed hat in the top row. it has been a great stadium and it is where we won two world series. >> the story goes you come to washington, you are in the senate your first few days, and you walk into t

get a trend especially when it comes to mobile and broad investment and certain markets outside the macro economic impact for quite a long time and instability in the currency. what we see right now is that we'll prevail for at least the rest of year so we are adding quite substantial cost reductions both in order to downsize corporate debt, part of the business, but also reducing and improving poftability. so this is an ongoing process. we had planned at the beginning of 2016. we saw in the second quarter that sl impacting or p and l positively. we're adding substantial cost reduction for the next four quarter. >> steve: -- >> when are we going to see the profitability? you signed some partnerships, but when are investors going to see an improvement in the underlying business? >> the underlying cost especially opec is on the way down. second half of 2016. has always been a target. here we bale doubsically double opec. it's going to happen gradually as we're doing right now already in this quarter almost 4,000 employees left erickson. the last eight quarters more than 30,000 has also left

. >> they basically just dropped all types steel into the water and place it under a macro lens. happens. >> it's so clever as well to see how some of those membranes break down. the science that they've gone in to to make sure this dissolves at the right place at the right time -- >> really pretty when you look at it this way. >> yeah it does. it's like a burst of color. >> the unique perspective with the macro lens -- >> like you're in another world. ?? >> if it's creeping or crawling or got large teeth, guaranteed coyote peterson is looking for it and in this lightest episode of brave wilderness he's in costa rica. >> okay so what's he looking for? because this guy likes to make things bite him. >> yes. >> you know they're just looking for crocodile. >> by this one. >> he's down there with dr. chris murray who is a he's a croc wrangler and this is where they say there are normally a lot of crocodiles. >> a lot of them we found right underneath us right here buried down in the mud. >> as the waters will recede they just sit and let the mud harden over top of them. >> no! >> i di

really quickly on the macro basis, we had business confidence with sentiments deteriorating. the business climate did fall to 108.3. the median estimate was for a drop to 107.5. 90 minutes into the session, let's get over to the markets desk. shery: let's look at breaking news. from the largest bank in florida by deposits said to be working with ubs to explore a sale. we are hearing this from people familiar with the matter, saying they are receiving interest from a potential suitor. 7% after we heard the breaking news. for the last two months, we are now hearing the largest bank in florida is exploring a sale with ubs. this week is all about investors. we have the fed and the doj and corporate earnings. nasdaq down and the reversing gains and this is reversing that rally we have seen for the past four weeks. i want to take you through the bloomberg.on on the consumer discretionary unchanged but losses being led by energy companies with oil at the lowest since may 9. u.s. producers are increasing drilling for a fourth week, the longest run since august. energy pulling down sto

have been pretty also because of the macro environment. uge property and the u.k.. i asked him what the worst-case scenario would be. he was cautious. after a good while, he gave me a couple of answers. it would be damaging for london if they were to lose this right. if it is not resolved given the weight of the financial services, that would be a bad outcome. francine: let's get back to our guest's in new york. when you look at past sporting and the fact that the markets have taken brexit in stride, is it because it is better than we expected or is it because article 50 has not been triggered yet? combination of both. the political situation in the u.k. got resolved much more quickly. realize this will take at least two years. had a policyly response, or the indication that central banks are going to step in. think your previous comment is correct. the passport issue is crucial for the u.k.. that is going to be the linchpin of the negotiations and that will be central to the outcome here. tom: what is the incentive for europe institutions

that's raising from the fund and the macro is not too good in china right now. pe >> still, inspired by the late apple founder, steve jobs, he g his bedroom s into an office to china to live an easy life. to make more friends. i come back to china to do a business. >> a business he hopes to take global and put china's start ups on the world map. for nightly business report, shanghai. >>> still ahead, the best places to put your money despite the global incertainty. our market monitor has idea go budget deficit predic will rise this year. a rise and it reverses the tre of improving deficits. the white house cut its forecast for growth. the government now predicts that gross do wl rise 1.9% this year and 2.5% in 2017. >>> fiat chrysler is create iin 1,00 billion. the decis is part of the company's plan to increase production of jeep suvs as well herbalife has settled to pay $200 million e and will overhaul its business practices. though the adpreemt ends an investigation, the agency said they're going to have to tart operating legitimately. >> today's $200 million

our guest for the next hour is the head of macro strategy at state street global markets. run us through the numbers. ryan: not great. $720 million. that is shy of what the street was looking for. the problem is not just the oil price, but refining margins. wasaying the last quarter the worst since 2010. the downstream business was down 19%. normally, that saves their bacon in a bad quarter. not so much now. if you want to give them a consolation prize, it was the best quarter in three. that is worth something, but does not live up to expectations. caroline: give us a sense about the rising debt load for bp. numbers are not living up to expectations. is there worry about the credit side of the equation? not anhere is

we are literally 30 minutes ahead of the close on this wednesday session. global macroovers -- look at equities. there is very much appetite for risk today. european stocks rising for a third consecutive day. hese currencies are ring and falling against the dollar. we have bonds rising, yields falling, and credit default swaps and commodities falling today. there is an appetite for risk as we wait the culmination of the two day fed meeting. let's talk about the world biggest luxury goods company. look at those shares -- 7.6% higher. the biggest intraday move since 2010. after the close last night, and increased sales more than analysts expected for demand of wine and spirits, showing how it's broad product based can insulate it against the sectors malaise sales. roseer goods unexpectedly even as terrorist attacks have hurt tourism flows to france and across europe as well. a big rise today for lvmh. r?at about the owne greater estimated 32%. number twoope's carmaker, promising it will remain on a turnaround track. it downplayed the future impacts of brexit on its own ma

to give business advice that ultimately went out of business. >> the macro question here is exactly is he qualified, does he deserve and can you trust him, if you were president of the united states. if this is the way he treated the people who gave him money for a service or product, then it's not -- it doesn't become him very well as a presidential candidate. >> thank you both for joining us this hour. that wraps it up for me. "hardball with chris matthews" starts right now. >>> hillary makes her pick. let's play "hardball." >>> good evening. i'm chris matthews back in washington after covering the republican national convention in cleveland. we're here live right now awaiting the big announcement from the hillary clinton campaign of who will be her running mate. nbc reports that the news is expected to come at any moment. believe me, we are on this. lots of chatter secretary clinton will choose virginia senator tim kaine and selecting a moderate like

we are joined by the chief macro strategist at rcb. t, we have a curve that looks broadly like that. we were here a month ago. the curve has flattened out. what will happen next? what will the bank deliver next? >> starting with the monetary policy. he is probably going to also look at what the fcp can also do most is more arcane for people. i think it is going to be important for the economy. the first thing he will probably do is cut rates. the question is how deep? the market is pricing in at a little bit more then 25 basis points. we think they could go all the way down to 10. i think the front end has more room to move. guy: the front end has not moved as much. how much lower will this person go? >> it is already in there. probably another 10 or 15 basis points in their which is not nothing for this part of the curve. on the longer end of the curve, is the bank of england going to roll out another qe program? we think they would. that would be influencing the cash market. guy: are you looking on this curve here? where is the sweet

what i have not heard is the smallerer than -- i have heard the macro messages. he can help america work and make america great. i don't know how. hear all this that stuff about hillary clinton. i am still not clear on why i should vote for donald trump or how he will do these things. in the past, the convention has been focused on building out the platform. talking about how you are going to get things done. i am just not seeing that here and i am struggling. i have an issue here. i don't know that i can vote for the republican nominee, the nominee at all. i don't know how he is going to get this stuff done. one other thing i would like to say and i'm surprised no one else has made this comment, i live in dearborn, michigan. we have more people from the middle east than outside of the middle east. i was delighted to see the republican national convention featured someone getting a prayer whoiving a was of the faith of islam. i thought that was very big. i wish more people had been there. i was glad to see that inclusiveness. i'm not saying the republican party r

he says he cannot predict the macro, but the main reason for , however, theet fundamentals are strongverall. vonnie: interesting investing environment. >> he says he sees all kinds of strategies from his clients, both on the long and short side. one interesting strategy right now is going after companies with big binary events coming up. they can potentially capture the upside if a data set goes well, something to offset this week macro environment. one thing that he really likes a lot is excel are on. three reasons that he really likes them. first, he says they have a strong partnership with celgene, a lot of data coming out next year. it could go you the way, but positive would help the stock. third, based on his work, they have enough cash until the end of 2019. he sees that 65% upside for shares of accleron. vonnie: thank you. it is time now for the bloomberg business flash. deutsche bank appears to have a morale problem. the bank says a survey of employees found fewer than half are proud to work there. executive teams say the results came a super and picture. last year, the ceo o

a look at the bigger macro pictures, at least trades, the ideas that the make rho picture is somehow. back then everyone was talking about how we would goo to 2.5%, the fed was going to raise rates, 2.25%, today all that safety bidding is fourth yields down to.4% and just about there right now. gold same kind of story. there was no reason to have gold again, inflation was under control, the fed was going to start raising rates. now that bid has put it up to 1360. oil we are well off our lows. still, back then sill 60 bukz a barrel. we're still only at 45 right now for west texas intermediate. the japanese yen, i know how much of a currency fan she's in, she is here. yen, it used to be 21, that's home you would get for ever dla dollar you exchanged. today the dollar will only buy you 102 yen some questions remain about how different the picture is. >> it's not just for me. it's the most important indicator for everyone. just look at today what happened. how do you think we started off today before the rally? >> i love those kinds of comparisons. dom, thank you for staying late. that w

don't believe the macro backdrop includes back strength and advertising in the second half x olympics. they cite the valuation and earnings growth. how that comes from the super bowl and political ad spending. >> interesting downgrade from them. cbs stock down almost 3% and of course, it's been sort of wrapped up in all the drama involving viacom and speculation where sherry redd stone and her father gain control of the board of directors and what might follow is some sort of a deal in which viacom and cbs were combined under the leader of the ceo but specific to ads, they've been very positive. quite positive. and others in the industry generally have described a robust environment for advertising. but this analyst disagrees. >> we have to see the story play out to see another. and he doesn't see a catalyst. >> notable downgrades. the cbs over at ubs. the csx cut by stefil today and cut over at wells and there's chipotle. morgan stanley cuts it into equal weight. targeted at 405 and a survey of consumers. 2,000 consumers. they did it back in january and now did it again. about 13% of

the macro event of the day -- or shall we call it the nonevent? bank of england deciding to sit on its hands and do nothing ahead of august. many forecasting that there would be a rate cut today. stocks are rising. this is bloomberg. ♪ get ready for the rio olympic games by switching to xfinity x1. show me gymnastics. x1 lets you search by sport, watch nbc's highlights and catch every live event on your tv with nbc sports live extra. i'm getting ready. are you? x1 will change the way you experience nbcuniversal's coverage of the rio olympic games. call or go online today to switch to x1. mark: live from london and new york, you are watching the european close. i mark barton. stocks finishing up today in european trading. this is the stoxx 600 with all of its industry groups rising for the fifth day in six after falling yesterday. we were up as much as 1.2% and finishing up right .9%. close of% below the the day of the u.k. referendum. check out sterling, rising for the fourth day in five after rising yesterday. still 11% below the june 23 close. s

we don't have a great affect from the macro view economics. >> i'm interested that the idea is to deepenervice and i think you said rather than to expand to other countries. so there's going to be music and video streaming, mobile payments, taxi hailing, a low cost mobile carrier in japan. >> yeah. exactly. >> what happens if one of the other big messaging operations takes your messaging away from you, takes the people away from you and leaves you with a much more costly structure that hasn't penetrated any other countries, isn't that a danger? i appreciate that you are in indonesia and other associated regional countries but it seems a risk in that strategy. what would you say to that concern? >> we have a kind of trend and evolution. we start from messenger domain, but every smartphone user needs another game service. this is a one stop service. there are so much applications to find and searching so if the users can serve their needs on the one stop service i think we can satisfy users. >> we see these cartoon characters here. this is very important to the business model. >> yeah. >>

be limited and once earnings season starts in a couple of weeks you'll certainly hear more about the macro fallout from this brexit. for "nightly business report," i'm bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. >> so, let's turn to anastasia amoroso for more on this market, global market strategist at jp morgan funds and is bullish on the markets. good to see you. welcome back. >> thank you, sue. >> let's start, first of all, i was kind of impressed with the way 9 market rallied back this week given the way it looked sunday night going into monday morning. is that one of the reasons that you feel as though there's more room for stocks to run? >> actually that is exactly not the reason why i feel that way because i -- the way i feel about brexit i think what's playing out in the markets right now is a relief rally, and it's the initial relief from the shock that we got last week which was the vote to exit the european union. however, i do think that as we progress through the second half of the year, the reality, the brexit reality may set in, and the reality may be that they will start to

later, depending on how bad it gets, either from the european stress test or the macro environment, ithange if necessary. i think for all banks the path toknow morality -- the path normality, building capital, being able to say the tough years are over and shareholders will get something in return, that path looks more long and winding. amanda: everyone is desperate to resume to what they had before, but the conditions are different. squeeze on their italian government holdings. we presume the other european banks are similarly exposed as commerzbank? lionel: it is tough tell. the actual overall numbers. there are plenty of banks in terms of absolute value of italian debt, more exposure. in terms of the maturity, whether the holdings are mainly in shorter-term debt, five to 10 years, that apparently plays a bit of a part. need to be clear of other banks will face that same pressure. basically, the overall environment, low interest rates, they sickly, that would mean that banks are having trouble making money from their basic lending. that is not good for their business or their holding

but, there are a number of different things going on right now in the macro environment, the financialment. a decline in liquidity, inventories that are, at some point in time in the next year, going to start to drop quickly again. that should lead to more volatility in the years ahead. vonnie: i still am not clear on how we get to $85 by 2019. what is going to have to happen between now and then? a lot of bankruptcies? michael: it is not necessarily just about what u.s. shale is doing. u.s. shale is just 5 million barrels per day out of a global supply of 93 million barrels per day. that is also the point. shale, as the most quick source of supply, is also going to be called upon at some point to offset some of that non-opec supply that is declining now at a quicker rate than it was before. we need to see a price high enough to see shale start to grow again. expect the technological innovations will continue, the cost reductions will continue. to a certain extent, some of those cost savings are not permanent. it is going to take a higher price level going forward in order to see shale

the macro factors fears of terrorism. they're not specific to easy jet so overall in the sector how do they fare against their competitors, particularly with the likes of ryan air. >> we have more eastern europe focused airline yesterday said the unit revenue down. they didn't actually change their guidance, but ryan air will report on monday. we will wait to see. just to remind people, they have said before their unit revenues were going to fall 5-7% for the summer. they've also guided for next winter down 10-12%. they've already been quite cautious. what we have to see on monday what that say. >> we will definitely await that report. stefen, thank you for joining us this morning. that is equity analyst at davie research. we talk about the increasing risks not just from terrorism, but the uncertainty now in turkey. let's bring you the latest situation there. president ird yan declaring a three-month state of emergency. that move is expected to accelerate erdogan crack down with those with m expected lings to the revolt. s

the but, again, that was the first chapter in developments and we'll be monitoring developments, macro economic developments closely as we would in any case. >> we heard a number of officials in the last few days talk about taking a wait and see attitude. this was just the first stage. how long will it take to really get your hands around the effects of that particular event? are we talking weeks, months? >> well, i don't think we know but in some sense, john, the impact of brexit as it transmits to the economy will run into the impact and effects of a lot of other developments as well so for us it will be a matter as it always is of surveying economic developments more broadly. the uncertainty point you don't know how long that's going to last and indeed we don't know the magnitude of the effect. i think we're sure about the sign which is that there will be some inhibiting effect particularly in the uk and the eurozone on investment and maybe on household behavior. governor carney has indicated that, he thinks risks to the economy in the uk have increased. but none of us know the magn

first you look at the macro level, the world of pro sports and cities courting sports teams. that the second part was how you weird alliances taking place in the case of the stadium to get it done. the third was implementation. i talked to those deciding with where it would be located at the time, whether minneapolis or in bloomington, minnesota. they finally chose minneapolis. fact forget about the that the stadium collapsed a few times. that we would stop hearing the jokes in minnesota that you shouldn't wear a pointed hat and the top rope. -- in the tope row. it has been a great stadium. that is where we won two world series. precious moments for minnesota sports. >> you are in the u.s. senate, your first week, and you walk into the men's room. sen. klobuchar: is a correct story. now with all of our 20 women we , finally have had a traffic jam in the women's bathroom. that was the first time in american history. i really didn't know my way around when i was brand-new. i've been a prosecutor elected for eight years. i did walk right into the men's bathroom. i believe that j

give us a minute on what you see the macro factors are. ase of great britain, we have, of course, uncertainty in what kind of deal they will be able to strike with the european union. the deal could range from something like being a member of the european economic area, which does not change that much in terms of the economics of the relationship, to something more severe, such as being treated like a third country. there is economic uncertainty about that. but the effect of the pound has fallen so much, and the fact that the bank of england is willing to step in and provide a lot of accommodations, that will cushion the blow. alix: maria, thank you for joining us. maria vassalou, partner and portfolio manager at perella weinberg. jon: retail sales crossing in a moments time. we'll bring you that. does the rally have more to run -- we're talking credit markets and the hunt for yield next. from new york city, and for our viewers worldwide, a softer session in europe. equities at an all-time high in the medassets. what a week for dollar- yen.

the macro, the data came in better than expected. this is from the private surveyor came in at an 11-month high. that transition does have momentum as we move away. let's get over to australia. we're still having though deal with this political limbo. let's not forget we saw an inconclusive result over the weekend. no outright winner. we are still counting the ballots until we get an idea which way the wind has blown. the risk is the minority government and issues about political paralysis and issues about the budget and issues about the credit rating, the triple a rating being vulnerable as well. rba did not move as widely expected. kept the main cash rates on hold. 1.75%. a lot of chatter in the market that they will have to ease at some point given the fact the global uncertainties are looking that much more series post-brexit and lower growth environment we all have though deal with now. that's where we stand. back to you. >> thanks so much. we are just admiring your outfit. you look great. >> i scrub up pretty well. >> you do. l

the water. that has made it so hard for hedge fund guys and traders. joe: it is such a macro event. at night of the vote you saw all those correlations blowout. you can see all those charts and more on twitter. today's talk about trade in the week over all. we have three charts you cannot miss heading into the holiday weekend. look at all, take a what happened over this week. do you are charts change a lot as a result of what happened? >> they don't. is ar world, the news byproduct of what prices are already telling us. we are more price-sensitive and less new sensitive. response this week out of gold and silver was in fact. silver up 11%. that was a meaningful breakout in sober. gold continues to consolidate above 1300. what i think is most interesting about briggs it is that the trends that were in place before remain the trends in place after brexit. gold and silver was gold going in and coming out. i think that continues. 1450 has been our goal target all year, and we are sticking with that. >> i heard people saying silver is the place to be relative to gold. given the move, do y

called "uncovering the dome," and i based it on a same analysis of how you look at things first on the macro level and that would be the world of pro sports and pro sports teams and the second part is how you get a bill done with the various special interest groups and everyone is fighting with each other and the weird alliances that take place in the case of the stadium to get it done. and pro sports teams and the second part is how you get a let's forget about the fact that it is collapsed a few times. what was finally deflated for the last time, it was a plan to deflation that we would stop hearing the jokes in minnesota about how you have to wear pointed hats in the top row. it has been a great stadium for our state. we won two world series. precious moments for minnesota sports. ,> you are in the u.s. senate your first week, and you walk into the men's room. klobuchar: we finally have had a traffic jam in the women's bathroom. i really didn't know my way around when i was brand-new. i've been a prosecutor elected for eight years. i did walk right into the men's bathroom. i believe that

where do these levels have to get before it does take precedence over the macro out there?rk: in the second half of this year, it looks like we will have a more balanced market. u.s. production continues to rise. we are finally seeing a correction. last low prices we saw year and early this year are finally having an impact on production. you report on prices every single day. we've been in the $50 range for a long time now. what could be the catalyst that would break us out of that range to either side? mark: the fundamentals on the downside -- once we see the overhang in u.s. apply start to dissipate, we could break down. if the fears about the european recession come true, that would also send us over. orcan never plan on war unrest, but oil does come from places in the middle east, africa, south america, places that are very unstable. is anything going on with opec at the moment? it looks like they have lost relevance for the time being. are the most important player, they want to see market share return in their direction. vonnie: there was a time we were very focused

so we've been able to offset ploes of the macro head winds including lower volume and we expect to continue to do that into the second half. the market still developing negatively, but at a decreasing skpas also the currency have strengthened recently which has provided a bit of a benefit going forward. >> the key driver was the profitability of the north american business here too. what are you doing there? is that the cost or price increases that you're managing to push through here. >> we're focusing overall on our margins and we're seeing that pay off. particularly in south america. that's driven both by mixed price in management and operation expense and product cost. >> great to chat with you thank you for joining us this morning. >>> joining us now is nick nelson. nick, great to have you on the show this morning. how much do we care about q 2 earnings in europe really? >> it's a good question because obviously we had the uk referendum right at the end of the quarter and ting cynics may say this is what you manage to do in q 2. let's see what happens in q 3 and q 4. you may find some

britain --o great give us a minute on the macro factors going forward for great britain. ria: we have uncertainty as to what kind of deal they will be able to strike with the european union. they could range from something like being a member of the european economic area, does not change much in terms of economics of their relationship. to something more severe such as being treated as a third country. there is uncertainty about that. the fact that the pound has fallen so much and the fact that willing to england's step in and provide a lot of accommodation, that should keep things low. david: coming up, we are live from cleveland where they are setting the stage for the republican national convention. donald trump announcing his vice presidential pick today, indiana governor mike pence. ♪ david: this is "bloomberg is official, donald trump has selected indiana governor mike pence to be his running mate. trump made the announcement via twitter. to megan let's go murphy in cleveland. i wonder, first of all, how much we know about mike pence and why donald trump sided with

away from the corporate agenda let's get back to the macro story around the eu.the wake of the vote, do you sense we will see closer integration? slower integration? we are getting mixed signals. guest: of course, they have a lot of issues to cope with as a result of the fallout. it is obviously going to be a better outlet for the eu if it can integrate. decisions will need to be made if integration is the way that the eurozone wants to move, some assetsattention and risk can start to reduce but there are risks that it moves and the other direction that is why we are seeing rapid movement from central bankers and politicians to shore things up. anna: how seriously our clients uitaly?"about a "q the vote is seen as a step in the journey. it's partly a consequence of what has been going on in the eu. for some, it have to do with migration. that is partly because of the economic difficulties of some european countries. this seems to be a process and this is why more integration is needed. and wide isst far growing and that does lead to greater risk at the moment it

the jobs market, i think efg we're seeing on the macro side is the other part. everybody said recession was around the corner. didn't happen. you look at jobless claims last week and if you have a b job, you're going to spend. sfwl refie and build a solid gold deck. that worked in 2006. you know, trying to make a sideways point about the retailers. is there anybody out there that you look at options and say, something to worry about here. >> i don't like the apparel name, a and fs and gaps ch i think you want to stay away from it and if you're looking at macy's, i have to assume at some point, there's going to be a consolidation and maybe that's why they're rallying, but we know they have their whole host of problems and to your point about tjx and the rack, i think they're trying to you know, just really be exposed to a broader -- >> they don't, they are. >> before we duoto carter, find it swresing, we're talking about the resurgence of the retarials, we're in a dead zone around an iphone upgrade cycle. talk about spending 4 or 400 on an iphone, now, we're talk

the recent months. otherwise, we do not really see any significant macro impact in terms of growth. ld it there. we have some breaking news. crossing the terminal, pmi for 54.4 arabia has come in at and also pmi for the united emirates at 53.4 and both are weakening,y, so some but still in expansion territory and that is what we discussed earlier as well. timing into the theme -- tying into the theme of oil importing economies monday have come under pressure and they are trying to pursue structural changes. we put this together for you. you can pull it up on the bloomberg. fx to see the probability for the foreign currency. for the object him out -- egyptian pound, the governor said it was good to defend and there was skepticism about an upcoming devaluation. so what is your thought on the egyptian economy? >> the egyptian economy needs rexall reform and the balance -- structural reform and the bounds of payments is significant. it is difficult to see if successful exchange-rate policy. they have known for some time they need more flexibility. i think that this statement from the cen

on them and her and we're going to have skpaes the long range needs of the country and fight for the macro and the macaroni-n-cheese issu issues. we will have a really good future. yes, it's about a new job and solar energy and you're going to bite off the community and bight off the life ask she wants the light in you to shrine. she is a leader and behalf of all of the woman who have broken down barriers and the eye and i nominate hillary clinton's name for united states president. >> there you have it. the longest serving woman in the history of the united states senate and placing clinton's name in the nomination and i want to bring and then it's the delegate. >> pretty good energy chuck. >> amazing energy and you know what, i'm going to get you after this and -- >> my beloved democrats they're forces and they want to take us backwards and they want to undue 50 years of process that this nation has made and we have come to far and we have made too much progress and we are not going back and we're going to go forward. and we will never vote -- now eight years ago our party and the democr

being a great example, and in the emerging markets, we're being buffered by the macros but resetting ness to set it up for growth in the future and that's the company that's going to power us forward and the company that drove the 4% underlying revenue and meeting the profit expectations as you said. >> a lot of people look at the company and see falling consumption of soda and, indeed, you did report that sparkling volumes fell 1%. so with that longer term trend in place, how do you turn that number around? >> i think this is when we need to look at that segmented revenue strategy. when you look at our total business in the developed economies and developing economies, sparkling volume was positive. we were in growth. and actually going into the future is about taking that growth adding on smaller transaction packages and turning into a really solid revenue and profit growth story. a bit like what the u.s. has been playing out the last few years. in the emerging markets, yes, we were impacted in a couple of places like china and argentina and venezuela in volume but we're resetting t

. >> she'll fight for the macro issues and the macaroni and cheese issues. >> stephen: yes!aroni and cheese issues! like, what is that powder, really? and it is time to stop calling it four servings when they know for a fact we're going to eat the whole pot! and when howard dean took to the podium tonight, he brought out the classics. >> because this race is going to be won on the ground, and it will be won on the ground, and it's going to be won in colorado, and in iowa, and in north carolina, and michigan, and florida, and pennsylvania, and then we're going to the white house! >> stephen: wooo! ( cheers and applause ) yes! yeah! only one problem with that-- he didn't do the scream! hyaaagh! you've got to do the scream, governor. that's like bruce springsteen ending his concert by singing "tramps like us, baby we were born... good night!" yeah! ( cheers and applause ) , of course,-- yeah! yeah! , of course, tonight, prime time spot, democrats brought out the big dog, potential first ladies man, bill clinton. ( cheers and applause ) that's official. that's officially the nam

>> there has been significant in the macro economic situation of great britain over the last five years it clearly move from a 10% fiscal deficit to lf of that now. my recommendation is to really reduce the level of uncertainty, identify clearly what the goals timeline, andthe as philipp armen said, understand that it will take time. it will require understanding on both sides in order to eliminate the trade uncertain the, the regulatory uncertainty, the passport uncertainty -- there is a whole range of issues which need to be addressed. which have brought european countries together, and from which clearly the united kingdom has indicated it's intention to withdraw. it has rapidity of institution, the goal and the timeline would be helpful. what youu pleased have seen out of european leaders? you go in a few days to g20 leaders? are you pleased with the messages from chancellor merkel and others in europe? >> for the moment, they haven't not, and deliberately so, decided to lay out the terms, the space, and the maneuvering that they want to offer or expect from their partner. there has