matthew beesley there, the head of global equities at henderson global. that is it for "countdown."" coming up next. caroline hyde, beautiful day in berlin. the dax is trading unchanged. guy johnson and caroline are up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ hey how's it going, hotcakes? hotcakes. this place has hotcakes. so why aren't they selling like hotcakes? with comcast business internet and wifi pro, they could be. just add a customized message to your wifi pro splash page and you'll reach your customers where their eyes are already - on their devices. order up. it's more than just wifi, it can help grow your business. you don't see that every day. introducing wifi pro, wifi that helps grow your business. comcast business. built for business. ♪ >> good morning. you are watching "on the move". we are counting down to the european open. caroline is in germany. tokyo drift, japan mrs. growth estimates as it battles a strong en. what will it take to revive japanese growth? data,ial week for u.k. what does the brexit economy look like? a take over

much time in the global village as in the main conference because there's a lot happening in the global village. i think my third big reflection is the fact that adult infections are flat is actually saying that things are working. over this last 30 years and sub-saharan africa, are now having an 85% by 2020 and absolute 100% increase in the 15 and 24-year-old at risk. if you if you are not going up in that age group, that is the most at risk by that number of infections, that means we have made some progress. but it also points out the groups that we have left behind in the public health response. i i think we have to be very honest with ourselves where we have succeeded. we have succeeded to prevent mother to child infection. really tilt a maternal child built a maternal child health platform take care pregnant women and children under so five. building on that, we could be wildly successful. mothers comport to protect the children. you can see that they do not always come forward to protect themselves and that is why we have to work on the retention issues. we have to be honest that

global trade flows, the growth has plateaued. antipathy toward globalization, trade treaties. it leaves people to say, we will effort, buta for outcomes, growth of real people, you do not get a very good grade. mr. lew: i cannot disagree with the argument that we should be doing better and could be doing better. i think what is quite clear is that when you compare where the united states is eight years ago, it is night and day. the difference between an economy spiraling with no bottom pillar oftrol to a strength in the global economy, notwithstanding the fact that we would like to see stronger growth. you look around the world, and we are not seeing a global recession like 2008, but i think the macroeconomic policies have failed to take advantage of the opportunity to have a more robust growth. -- the nine it states is united states is facing headwinds from a slower grilling global economy. we cannot make policies and other countries, but we can influence the way they think about their policies. if you look around the world, more countries are using macroeconomic goals, fisca

jobs report on friday, we focus on china and global demand.s is bloomberg. ♪ francine: welcome to "the pulse ." i'm at bloomberg european headquarters right here in london. let's get to bloomberg first word news. he expressed a desire to abdicate within the next few years. in the speech, he voiced concerns that would become increasingly difficult for him to carry out his duties. >> when i consider my age of the 80, as well as deteriorating fiscal conditions, despite being luckily healthy at this moment, i have concerns about not being able to fulfill duties. reporter: as many as 5 million people attended an anti-coup rally in istanbul yesterday. meanwhile, moody's has left its longtime debt rating on turkey unchanged and said it would continue to review it stance following the failed sales coup. donald trump is attempting to get his campaign back on track. according to senior campaign nominee's address will focus on providing smalltory lea relief to businesses. on thursday, hillary clinton will also speak on the economy. germany industrial pro

announcer: welcome to "global 3000." this week we pay a visit to the south african coast to see the only penguins at home on the continent. but their numbers are dwindling. how can they be saved? in colombia, we meet motivated young people who want to develop innovative ideas to improve conditions in their country. but first, we take a closer look at a photo series. a swedish photographer has captured arresting images depicting the lives of children fleeing war. all of our heads are filled with pictures. images are a powerful force, we absorb their content 60,000 times faster than information conveyed in text. pictures appeal to our emotions. they can move us, make us laugh , or feel happy or sad, but they can also deceive us. images are easy to manipulate, a process that begins the moment a subject is chosen. elements can also then be removed, or added. but there are photographs that really reach out and grab the observer, precisely because they show things exactly as they are. children sleeping peacefully. refugee chil

globalization.he answer is, how we make sure the globalization works for us not against us? tpp is designed to do precisely that. >> c-span's issue spotlight on trade deals continues with trade attorney and cato institute scholar scotland to come -- a cato institute scholar. from washington journal of earl ier this year. host: joining us from duke university. he rode the customer -- the cover story. what did you find out about the truth about trade? guest: what i found out is that there are a lot of myths and misperceptions about trade and jobs, and whether trade is really to blame for, example the loss of manufacturing jobs over the last several decades, or whether they're more fundamental problems with the american labor market. the conclusion, as you probably guessed, is the trade really is not to blame for some of the problems in our labor market. instead, one of the problems we really have had in the last few years is a collapse in labor dynamism. the ability of misplaced workers -- of displace

africa on global health for many years. i say in general, and there's a lot more nuance in the report, but in general, the public is supportive of u.s. engagement in the world. and we saw that just a few months ago africa despite sort africapolitical rhetoric a few months ago africa that was still the case. we'll still be polling on this. we will report back if that changes because we are still -- the public seems to get that our role in the world of global health, hiv matters. it is morally important. and that is a driver for them. but we have seen two things. one is less attention to hiv among the public. they do not see it as a big problem anymore. they don't see it in the news much. that is one trend we have observed. we have also observed a growing partisan divide on some of the support. so there still general support, but when you look by party identification or ideology, there is always been differences, but we are seeing those differences starting to more. maybe not a surprise, but those say to me, the larger climat

let's look him janet henry, hsbc's global chief economist. -- let's welcome janet henry, hsbc's global chief economist. first of all, what you take away from the fed minutes? there is consensus that the target will be difficult to achieve. we are really not the wisest. >> know, we are not. you have had commentary with a tryingof fed governors to keep open the possibility that they can raise rates this year. some suggesting even september. but it is still an ongoing issue. those fed governors that are increasingly confident about the sustainability of the u.s. economy and in any normal world they used to talk about, the falling unemployment rate used to make them competent about inflation. it looks like the majority of the committee just a agree. they are still concerned about global weakness and not comfortable about a sustained increase in inflation. francine: global weakness coming from where? we have a handle on brexit for now. china is stabilizing. what are they worried about? >> there was a bit of detail on the minutes. first of all brexit, they have a knowledge they did not see t

let's take global trade. probably know, for most of the post second world war ii era, trade has persistently much gdp.er than since the crisis, it's grown slowly and in the date 2012, trade continues to grow more slowly than overall output. trade has turned into a drag a boost. and with the problems looking forward, with -- by brexit and the need for the uk to renegotiate trade deals the u.s. from in the both political candidates to immediate passage of the tpp, transpacific partnership, the likely tip agreement between the u.s. and europe, it's hard right now to be about trade turning around. one of that's been the benchmarks of the growth in the most recent decades. mean, you talked about the u.s. election a little bit. is there a little bit of market underpricing as the risk that we could see with a potential victory from the candidate donald trump? e see him talking about withdrawing from the wtl. the u.s. will not defend unless they pay, alling nafta one of the worst trade deals ever. >> well, let's just

we have the global fund replenishment. it does seem that coming out of this that for the next year or two we need -- we need to rethink on what kind of high level political strategy are we going to pursue. the u.s. is the dominant player, two-thirds of the u.s. dollar, that's a dangerous position for us to be in. we neat to get past an eu and the uk exiting and losing their capacity to influence and keep the eu to their commitments. we are in our own transition, we have un agencies in leadership positions turning over in this next period. that could be both dangerous but also an opportunity to sort of make the case. and i also -- i would add to jennifer's notion around have people become complaisant. i think also we have a confusing set of messages to the american public. i mean, i think part of it is what we are telling people they should think, and that comeco gets people to think that there are more urgent and pressing things and that we can hive off a little from here and from there and ease off and the like, i would a

trade, inter, between countries and globalization, as in one big homogenous glob of globalization. so there is international, versus globalization glob. and the idea is to have everything around the world as far as policy, regulatory matters, set within these rules and in fact the operating clause in the world trade organization is, all countries shall insure conformity of all of their laws, regulations, and administrative procedures. so the best way this is ever described, this is actually in the who trade organization book was by a rancher i met in wyoming trying to describe why the u.s. was in a big fight over what european meat was like and why it was sort of ruining him and he figured they would have the right to eat what they wanted as long as we did same thing with their farmers, why are we in big spat. i tried to explain what is going on. i get this exactly. what we're talking about a high voltage, electric fence right around the pasture, and you can't get out of that pasture. now the cows can do anything they want in the pasture. they wan eat. they can roll, they can muck

globalization. the answer is, how do we make sure that globalization works for us, not against us? tpp is designed to do precisely that. announcer: c-span's issue spotlight on trade deals continues with trade attorney and cato institute scholar scott lincicome. he says trade is incorrectly blamed for being the name -- main cause of job losses in the u.s.. from washington journal earlier this year, this is about 20 minutes. host: joining us from duke university, scott lincicome. he wrote the cover review for national review, enemy of trade. scott, what did you find out about the truth about trade? guest: what i found out is that there are a lot of myths and misperceptions about trade and jobs, and whether trade is really to blame for, example, the loss of manufacturing jobs in the united states over the last several decades, or whether there are more fundamental problems with the american labor market. the conclusion, as you maybe could guess, is that trade really is not to blame for some of the prob

now, there is a combination of drivers for the global development. a global output gap.ap in europe and china. competition for firms trying to keep costs low and in an environment where regulators are not picking up that fast. and environment where policymakers have not figured the rising high nation. tom: holger schmieding, i want to take the ubs analysis, fiscal stimulus followed by need for monetary using. i want to talk about the courage of mario draghi. he is not in the united states, not in japan. to me, his very alone in frankfurt with the odd european structure. what kind of courage is mario draghi going to need to assist europe to a better outcome? well, actually, there's not much he can do. he has delivered. the eurozone has a fairly aggressive monetary policy. domestic demand in the eurozone is at its trend rate. if we do not like the trend rate, we have to discuss structure reforms. mario draghi going forward will make sure nothing bad really happened. that if there is an accident, a global economic accident, a political accident that affects the outlook for

global aids coordinator and u.s. special rep for global health diplomacy. she has been in that role for over two years, and in that short space of time had dramatic and profound impacts. she carried to durban -- no surprise to any of us -- her signature relentless drive to force a focus on young women and adolescent girls, the special threats they face, their centrality, the future of prevention efforts, the demographic wave that lies on the horizon, and the need for integration looking forward, bringing in all sorts of other sectors. she also carried to durban her signature relentless drive to carry forward the transformation of pepfar's approach to apply greater rigor, to insist on better data, to concentrate investments of scarce dollars in the right place and the right time on priority micro-epidemics, and to measure impacts much more carefully, assiduously in this process. just prior to the opening of the conference was the two-day pepfar implementers meeting. we'll hear, i hope, from deborah what that revealed about progress in moving forward with tha

previous undercover investigations exposed the global trade in african blood diamonds. this investigation, gooch says, exposes serious flaws in the u.s. legal system that have made it a hub for international money laundering. out for us in some detail was all the different possibilities and ways in which it could be done. >> kroft: what you're saying is if you want to get dirty money into the united states, it's not that hard to do. >> gooch: what i'm saying is there is an open door and it's pretty shocking and pretty concerning, because that money could be coming from anywhere. >> kroft: of the 16 lawyers that global witness recorded in these preliminary meetings, only attorney jeffrey herrmann flatly declined to participate and questions about that. >> kayser: yes? >> herrmann: under the foreign corrupt practices act. >> kayser: right. >> herrmann: and under the foreign corrupt practices act, bribing foreign officials is illegal. >> kayser: by americans. >> herrmann: by americans. >> kayser: but americans are not involved. so it's money from other nation- - nationals,

global trade flows from the growth in global trade flows has plateaued.'s a lot of antipathy towards globalization, towards trade treaties. it kind of leads people to say we'll give you an a for effort at the g20 but when you look at outcomes in terms of growth and incomes of real people it's kind of, you don't give a very good grade. >> you know, i cannot disagree with the argument that we should be doing better and we could be doing better. but i think what is quite clear is that you compare where the united states is to eight years ago and it's night and day. the difference between an economy that was spiraling with no bottom out of control, to illustrate in the global economy, notwithstanding the fact that we would like to see even stronger growth. look around the world and we are not seeing a global recession like we did in 2008, but i think the macroeconomic policies have failed to take advantage of the opportunity to have a more robust period of growth. the united states is actually facing headwinds from a slower growing global economy. as pauly co

bob: these are global companies. they do business on a global basis. systems that are almost 19th century, let alone 20th century. taxation -- that was the whole point about this offshore cash. we have a tax system predicated their plants in elkhart, missouri, where this they have the businesses all over the world. we have to do to compete. we want our companies to compete on a global basis. yes, i know that if you are not base wheres everything is moving, it seems like the world is leaving you behind if you are in flint, michigan, or something like that. but this happens when economies change. we are in a global economy, there is no denying it. but the politics, especially in a soundbite/twitter environment, do not do that. peter: the key to the fed's longer-term problem is low productivity. globally, you're not seeing investment right now. what will get them to feel good enough about the economic prospects to start spending? bob: it is very difficult to invest in the traditional bricks and mortar if you are in this gdp environment. we need the gdp ba

global news 24 hours a day.ns between nato colleagues turkey and the united states are increasingly strange. ankara is stepping up calls for the extradition of that cleric after the failed coup. let's get more on that story from the at least averaging editor. what is behind the story? parties, thee three major parties going to the united states to try to convince the united states to extradite this man. turkey of being behind the code. visitors because the u.s. refused to extradite him. he has strongly denied any involvement in the coup. that raises the question of let's assume the american to refuse turkish requests. how would that way on relations. i think both sides are making noise on this. while there is a lot of rhetoric, i think fundamentally it remains a strong relationship. maybe going through troubled waters at the moment. it is still fairly stable. now it is just going to the u.s. dollar. the focus is on the u.s. side. they're going to pursue a downgrade. politically what is happening with that purcha

emily: fred stone -- brad stone, are global -- our global tech editor. great work this week. day in tech history. 12 years ago, google made its trading debut on the nasdaq, starting at $85 a share. of search engine is a shadow the tech giant economy has become. google went on to become a half trillion dollar market cap company trading near $800 million in two share classes, funding every thing from life sciences to driverless cars, and of course it has moved on to its new name alphabet. that does it for "bloomberg west." next week, don't miss our exclusive conversation with the cofounders of reddit, joining us on tuesday. that's all for now from san francisco. happy friday. have a wonderful weekend. this is bloomberg. ♪ .. .. ♪ announcer: from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." jolie vang donald trump continues to destabilize his campaign, this time with a change in leadership. also named stephen -- as the campaigns chief executive. he took a leave of absence as the chair of the conservative website. joining me from washington, bob costa of the washington p

our global telcos being born? facebook messenger is a global telco. they may not be the area. if you look at the example of beach app, you can get all of the global -- although the local services. you can get government services. the interesting fact i will tell you is each mobile phone user has 80 plus applications downloaded but three or four use 80% of the time it takes. what is likely to come is some sort of connectivity tool is going to become the central point of your screen because that's how you're are going to do everything that you need to do. is that a global framework or a city framework? i think the physical infrastructure is a city framework. application and software is likely to be national or global framework. this is a hugely important -- if you can now change the screen of your mobile phone you have an implication of what services you consume and when. i think cities can play a huge role in the physical infrastructure and leave the software infrastructure to other entrepreneurs. >> i have a question for the panel -- worldwide application of your discussion of

globalization of government.need to separate out those two ideas. globalization, everything you talk about in the book about the importance of economic immigration is obviously so important. i mean, trade, specially. if they voluntarily trade, they are both better off. the idea, one of the things that worries me is that we are seeing a trend towards the left wanting global government. this isn't the black helicopter stuff. there's no question that the left's agenda to globalize a lot of policies. we see with really dangerous climate change deal. this is an an assault against self-governing. this is one area -- i don't know if i disagree with you or not. you talk about reforming imf and institutions and in ways that would improve organizations but i want to throw out this idea that maybe the world would be better without them altogether. do we really united nations, we've written about that in heritage for 30 years. it's certainly worthying about. i guess what i'm challenging you to -- again, i want your answer to

with me this morning, margareta drzeniek-hanouz, global head of competitiveness and risk at the globalcs forum. let's also welcome mark gilbert, who has done extensive work on this industrial revolution. margareta, when you look at all the work you've done, how quickly will this fourth revolution come into play? you can argue that at his been there for at least four or five years. willy accelerate -- will it accelerate exponentially? margareta: it will. it will have a very strong disruptive effect. when we look at how it changes existing industries, what is interesting that experts agree that it is going to take much longer than we think. it requires a lot of changes in the business models. those changes are going to take a number of years. we're looking at a time horizon of five to 10 years in terms of changes to the business model, especially on the digital sign. there's also artificial intelligence. there is biotechnology. there are many technologies we look at. francine: mark, we've been talking about the fact that these changes that have already come into effect should maybe chang

the vision as a global vision.you are doing matters. you are not just competing in one local market, one local language. so they will probably say, it is website dot de, but i say it is just website. it's a mentality that you are in the environment in germany all the time, and that's what you are thinking about, but in order to be truly competitive, we teach them to think more globally. that's one thing that i noticed. caroline: is that relevant within the united states? david: the u.s. is a big market, so a lot of people, by comparison, it is more reach. so people assume, when they hear a pitch in the u.s., that it is a global company to begin with. when i first heard the uber pitch, where i am a super early investor, it was focused on san francisco, but you knew that the aspiration was always global. it is sort of in the language, and you hear it in subtle ways, and here it is the opposite. maybe sometimes you have too much market focus on one country, one language, one region, and you try to coach that out of th

we have work to do on a global scale. singapore was the first country in southeast asia to join the global coalition to destroy isil. we're grateful singapore is making new contributions to this effort by providing valuable medical support to coalition forces. as two nations on the forefront of digital innovation, we recognize the growing threats of cyber attacks and we're going to continue to work to strengthen cyber security and to promote peaceful norms on how nations should operate in cyberspace. singapore, the gar dn city, helped to achieve the paris climate agreement last year. mr. prime minister, thank you for your commitment to work towards joining the paris agreement this year. we're also working closely with the international community to reduce harmful aviation emissions and face down hfcs. our two countries will continue to work together to advance global health securities so we're better prepared to address the threat of pandemics. last point, we agreed to keep promoting people-to-people ties between our two

it looks like global easing.e fed was doing, qe and forward guidance in the lower anel of rate, it was intention of policy, the goal is to push rates low. the rest of the world needs slow real rates. i would not call it a public all. it is a policy goal of these he be in the boj. financial stability is interesting. we had not heard about this in a while. you remember back in 2013, jeremy stein talking a lot about issue. debates in them last couple of years but popped back off interestingly enough. what is going on between the hawks and adults on the committee, the hawks are pushing back on the idea that we should just a 50 basis points for an indefinite time because it may , whether imbalance financial stability problems or imbalances in the real economy. matt: are there any argument against raising rates other than domestic concerns that it would be bad for consumers? are there worries it would create a negative feet act loop with foreign economies? >> absolutely. a big concern is we will repeat what we saw in t

we are anticipating a situation with the global supply for capacity is above global demand.sed our own capacity by 2%. that's why we are getting high utilization and costs down. rishaad: we have lots more to discuss on this. we will be back in a moment. ♪ rishaad: right. you are back with the asia pacific had for maersk. let's talk about the business of shipping. it is hugely cyclical. it does seem the industry orders too many ships half the time and too few available a lot of the time, which makes the money i suppose. >> let's start with the philosophical perspective. container ist what a has done for global trade, it has been hugely beneficial. it has allowed players to export to other countries without take risks. you ordered the ship in the past, it was significant for a commodity. the container, we have been able to reduce that risk. rishaad: it has changed the whole game. it brought unit costs down. globalization has made it possible to have chinese manufactured clothing and the u.s. at a lower cost. ,he cyclicality of the industry the order path is to-three years in a

global news 24 hours a day. sherry: now to the u.s. bond market were volatility appears to be vanishing. check out this chart, a measure of expected price swings in treasuries has dropped to the lowest levels since 2014 as the is the reserve shows -- market too complacent? president will he and investors are underestimating how many times the central bank will hike. also telling bloomberg tv and increase in september is very much on the table. for more perspective, we are -- one of 20 primary dealers that trade with the new york fed. thank you so much for talking to us. we have been hearing quite some time from analysts that we could see a selloff in treasuries. that has not happened, but we are now seeing that hedging dollars against -- euro against yen could be getting more expensive and foreign buyers may be reluctant to get into the action. could this time be different for treasuries? >> when you look at the rate complex on a global basis, the u.s. has higher rates than anyone out there, and that is what is making it a floor as far

a new kind of globalization.de havews and been a hot topic for decades, but this year the issues are back on the forefront, particularly on the u.s. campaign trail. joining us now is a professor of economics and the leader in sustainable development. thank you for joining us. obviously, trading globalization are huge topics in the election europe as well. what will it take to get people excited and supportive of the idea of global trade? >> the idea is that you expand the pie, but the pie is all going to the group at the top end so -- answer those left -- and so those left behind are not trade.ited about inequality in the united states has been widening pretty relentlessly for the last 30-40 years. the public is not backing trade. we also have the point that hillary and trump are both against the tpp but the tosident is still pushing it a lame duck congress. there is a lot of maneuvering behind the scenes to push this through even though the public is not too happy with it. scarlet: we are all familiar with how g

what's the n think new global telco, facebook messenger is a global telco. may not be there but if you look at the example of v-chat. i.m., you can get all the global and local services and you can get government services. it becomes the portal. the interesting fact that i'll each mobile hat phone user has 80 plus applications downloaded. three or four use 80% of the time that it takes. it's likely to become is that some sort of onnectivity tool is going to become the central point of your screen. because that's how you're going o do everything that you need to do. now, is that a global framework or is it a city framework? i think the physical infrastructure of the city framework, application and likely to be national or on a global framework. so there are -- this is a hugely important, because if you can screening of your obile phone, you have a wide implication of what services do you consume and when. cities can play digital and physical the structure and leave software infrastructure to other entrepreneur. >> i have a question for the oral-wide applicati

i want to ask a global question. it seems to me that it's easy to be an absolutist and in defense of the first amendment, and to be glowing about the glorious noble purposes and the concept. but i don't see a lot of honoring, although fred is moving in that direction -- of the pain inflicted by some free speech in some settings, and how damaging it is. good, butxamples are gender examples are more ubiquitous because they are more acceptable. to say things that are demeaning to women word survivors of abuse. in settings where there are plenty of survivors plenty to be feeling unsafe. i have a friend, i don't know his relationship to brandeis desk i'm curious to know if either of you have read it. i'm curious about what fred might think of it. you goes beyond what i hear doing, saying that the first amendment itself to be a more balanced analysis. free speech cannot be in absolute trump the matter the pain or the horror. talking about the protest of the funerals of gay servicemen. there should be a limit on this. is no

nejra: global news, 24 hours a day, --global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists in morehan 120 countries. i am their chairs, this is bloomberg. francine: two presidents are sounding off on the central bank will raise rates. -- robert he will not kaplan says a hike to come is soon as september. >> and think september is very much on the table. i think we'll have to see how events unfold. it is too soon to jump to conclusions on that. i have learned as a central to makewe've that time a judgment between now and the september meeting. i wanted to take advantage of it time. to job reports between now and then, want to get the benefit of that information before commenting. francine: investors put the chances of a rate hike and roughly one in three and the odds of an increase by the end of next year are only slightly better. for more on the fed's next move, let's bring in ashok shah. thank you for joining us. we need to start with the fed because the fed is the biggest unknown or the one that is likely to move in the markets in one go. are they dovish echo on a more dovish tha

this is about global payments.y're going to join the imf basket, in just under a couple of month's time. but this is the share of global, beginning to dissipate, do you think the hot flow of money in, capital flow out, and that has been the overriding concern for china. is that stymied at the moment? vincent: it was a major concern in december and january, we had outflows at about $100 billion a month. that has continued since that, but at a much slower pace. and clearly, it is on the radar of the markets. so, it is not a major concern, right now. but eventually, you have the underlying problem, that binge that we had in china, too much debt will start to hurt. and the government right now is trying to basically cover those risks, but there is a limit to that strategy. and i think both on the balance of payments side, but also in terms of the reform of the economy, what we see deteriorate is a bit of a step back. somehow, the concerns about the currency, but at a cost of probably putting back a little bit in terms