t: what'd you investors fed up with hedge funds. funds billions from hedge .f those investors taking a stand. david is the chief investment officer for kentucky retirement systems that oversee $16 billion in assets. he joins us from kentucky. david, good to see you. you have pulled a million dollars out of hedge funds so far. how much more do you want to pull out? we made a board decision. yet.d not occur i we are in the process of doing that. we are responding to taxpayers that have concerns. we are taking a fresh look at asset allocation and the use of hedge funds. it was determined that there are certain strategies within the hedge fund portfolio. they may be aren't providing the necessary return for the cost. committee which is newly appointed by the governor a year ago. they had the investment committee that had investments .xperience we take a fresh look at our portfolio and we are trying to create a less complex, lower cost, more transparent portfolio. is it because of the governor finishing his first year in office that you are taking a closer look at

tom: how hedged are the hedge funds?ostly now unhedged or less hedged than they should be? steve: most hedge funds are disguised long only. tom: thank you. julian robertson agrees with you. you are in good company. run hedget people who funds are extremely net long, and they use hedges to dampen volatility. that is not what i have done, but i think i am more the exception than the rule. people -- most people do not focus that much time on their shorts. guy: is that true of all strategies? where do you get a proper hedge in the hedge fund industry? steve: if you go with people who run neutral, obviously you are getting a hedged product. but that is a minority in the hedge fund industry. hedge funds that are long-short equity always have a long orientation. tom: steve eisman, thank you so much, with neuberger berman. we greatly appreciate your attendance today. we will continue with willem buiter. allergan -- what do you do with the money? distribute as you will. come out with earnings, a plan. is like a blue-chip equivale

how is the hedge fund positioning? >> big market boost today in the wake of new disclosures that clinton is off the hook on the fbi e-mail investigation. a move that some are referring to as the relaxation trade. in other words, the market is breathing a sigh of relief that clinton is likely to win. with that, they're getting the more predictable, more mainstream candidate. risk is off and the markets are up. until recently, however, it has been hard to pick out the best pre-election trades for the hedge funds because a trump presidency according to many would be hard to handicap in terms of its impact on the market and economy. the consensus clinton trade is bullish stocks. neutral or maybe short goal. the trump trade is short the market short-term or perhaps just flat through tomorrow. but expecting a dip on wednesday and after and maybe a buying opportunity along with it as well as bullish drug stocks and long gold. it has been a tough call. as david tepper noted earlier. >> i think people are going to have a tough

maybe that is people hedging. it to protect your risk and probably get crushed if trump wins. you can never look at just one data point. matt: they will be covering those if trump doesn't win. next we will talk about that anger driven politics. stick with us for making green. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: following one of the most bitter and divisive presidential campaigns, americans are headed to the polls. many avoided today's lines with as many as 50 million people casting early ballots. hillary clinton with a narrow lead. she and bill clinton voted in new york. donald trump voted in manhattan. he told foxnews he doesn't trust many opinion polls which he says are deliberately inaccurate. a judge will not issue an order to have ballots in voting machines set aside pending challenges to the election results. the donald trump campaign filed a lawsuit in las vegas alleging the early voting polls were cap 's closing. the clinton campaign called the lawsuit frivolous. volunteers collected ballots from drivers and bicycl

we hedge as a group. we hedged 100% at $57. next year, we are trending up. 70% at $59aged at per barrel. we are trying to find more positions. position maye oil drop further, so were trying to find more room to see if we can hedge more. i am quite confident in terms of hedging this year. we have been good and in the money as well, which is good. rishaad: the weaker malaysian ringgit makes oil more expensive. it can also help in terms of passenger acquisition. right.are in terms of, that is something we don't have -- hedge. our sales as well are not really malaysian ringgit. we have a lot of australian point of sales currency coming in, 20%. we have u.s. dollars coming in as well. if you match it, the impact is fairly minimal, so i am confident moving forward that you want see much of an impact in terms of currency. there is more paper movement in terms of the revaluations of the currency. that is about it. about the other airline as a feeder airline. will they work with you on this? >> they work very closely with us. in the pas

it should be once upon a time if you ask the hedge fund manager why you should invest in hedge funds he would say we are the best and brightest and we can outperform any other investment in any type of market. now if you ask a hedge fund manager or your consultants or mr. gotto or any member of this board the exception of prof. meiberger what reason you should invest in hedge funds you would all say in the event of a downmarket protection. well 2008 was a big down year. between 2008 and 2009 more than 2000 hedge funds after losing most of the money of their clients went completely out of business. in the last 10 years the vast majority of hedge funds have not even outperform the s&p 500. also in the past 10 years if you invested in according to the survey here, 500 [inaudible] most of the strategy head hedge funds with a 1% return on your investment. compared with 97% return on the s&p 500 in the same period. you may ask, why do pension funds still invest in hedge funds. [inaudible] asked that question yet you know what his answer was? hedge fund managers are much better salesman tha

lucas hedges is on the way. for a while you didn't stream your music at all. >> right. >> jimmy: now you're on amazon unlimited music. this is -- you're embracing the future, is that what's going on? >> cool, man, great company. adam's here tonight representing them. they said they're going to ask you about amazon, tell them sincerely man, this company's a great company. they've got it all -- great company, sometimes they deliver things to my house before i've even ordered them. [ laughter ] >> probably because your wife's already ordered them, like me. >> jimmy: maybe that is what's happening. i was thinking i needed that, and there it is. >> yeah. >> jimmy: i hope that even though you're on amazon that you don't stop making cd covers. because you have some of the best covers of anybody. [ cheers and applause ] >> jimmy: "roping the wind." "the chase." [ cheers and applause ] >> jimmy: this is one we made up. this is another one we made up. i don't know if we made this up. [ cheers and applause ] >> jimmy: the

incidentally on the hedge fund cycle, -- hedge fund cycle, we have notoriety.body else has terrible performance, and we took our investment in hedge funds from $1.5 billion to $500 billion and we learn something. that groucho marx is the key to hedge fund investing. you want to invest in hedge funds that do not want you in their club. if that only opens from time to time. how do you expect the state to be able to look at the massive pension burden? sadly, it is a little bit more balanced than one week ago, but everybody is hoping for them to get together and reform the pension system, get it under control. it is on legacy liabilities, which is rarely have problems and so do states and cities across the country, which may take something from washington, something similar to what congress and president obama did with respect to puerto rico. a resolution to restructure a sovereign debt problem and that is what the pension liability problems are about. vonnie: that would be stunning. marc levine thank you, chairman of the illinois state board of investment, joining

hedge fund billionaires. >> for clinton in the super p.a.c. her top donors have been donald susman, james simons with a message fund and george soros. last time we looked there were no hedge fund billionaires supporting donald trump. now that he is the last man standing in the republican party that has changed. a lot of the hedge fund billionaires have not come mercer did. he supported ted cruz until he decided to come over to trump. >> donald trump's biggest donors have been robert mercer who is actually with the same hedge fund that james bynums. jeff palmer a real estate developer in california. >> add it up and clinton has far and away more big donor support. partners, $14 from men sapbs jim simons. more than $12 million from another group and 10 million each from soros and saban capital. 20 donors have given her more than $2 million each. he has only three donors in that category. 15 by 5 million from renaissance's robert mercer, $2 from g.h. partly sunny and million from the market foundation started by home depot's co-founder. within re

lucas hedges!icky: amazon music is the exclusive streaming partner for garth brooks. sign up at amazon.com/unlimited. >> guillermo: i love this song! >> dicky: the "jimmy kimmel live" concert series brought to you by amazon unlimited. >> jimmy: i'd like to thank tom hiddleston, lucas hedges and apologize to matt damon, we ran out of time. "nightline" is next but first, the album is called "gunslinger," here with the song "callin' baton rouge" garth brooks! ♪ ♪ ♪ i spent last night in the arms of a girl in louisiana and though i'm out ♪ ♪ on the highway my thoughts are still with her ♪ ♪ such a strange combination of a woman and a child ♪ ♪ such a strange situation stoppin every hundred miles callin baton rouge ♪ ♪ ♪ a replay of last night's events roll through my mind except a scene or two ♪ ♪ erased by sweet red wine and i see a truck stop sign ahead so i change lanes ♪ ♪ i need a cup of coffee and a couple dollars change callin baton rouge ♪ ♪ operator won't you put me on through i gotta send my

it's -- it was an inflation hedge. a deflation hedge. none of those seem to be working. don't really get -- >> the gdx side was the minuers were thought to go out of business. >> there were so many hedge funds who came out and were out there publicly, talking about positions and how strong their positions were in the gold world. >> and that to me -- >> as a group. >> it's all about positioning. right now positioning in gold is actually underweight. if you look at levels on gold, 1180 is a level it's held and you can actually trade. you get to this place where karen -- inflation expectations are at 12-year highs. a political environment globally, which has never been more unstable. these are environments to own gold. >> and was it here? >> well, i agree. i think we got to this place where people were more concerned about the dollar strength and rates were going higher and the trade out of low-yield trade alternatives obviously hurts gold. as steve said, you've got to own a piece of gold and don't chase it at the wrong time. this is not chasing at the wrong time. trading f

when i say people came in badly positioned, they came in completely hedged. hedges had to come off. and they had to get long stocks. had to get long names that they knew were going to win. we watched the banking stocks take off. we watched the long positioning within the utilities and the staples come off. >> so i would say that what you -- to answer your question, what's different after the election, is the republican sweep of the house. i would argue, if we had a trump presidency and a democratic congress, then we probably would not have this rally. but what investors are now saying is, there is going to be a ton of money coming from overseas in here. not only that, you have pro business, hopefully nonprotectionist policies, and that has what changed from eight days ago. now, everything that tim talked about is still a very big concern. higher rates, that's not necessarily going to be great. the dollar in and of itself could be the thing that short-circuited this. >> that's my point, bk. we expect change, but we haven't gotten it yet. i mean, enjoy -- we think a lot of things are

erik: so it raises a question about hedge funds for me.e seeing an enormous shift and nothing seems to be more active that a hedge fund. what is the future for the hedge fund industry amid a shift like that? ben: i think it is a great environment. when i first came in here withing with mr. bloomberg acting out is in time for passive investing to take over from active investing, i think it is the opposite. forward in a more we don't environment have the same support of the discount factor propelling upwards, you need to be active and pick your spots it be long and short assets so i think the workouts it is incredibly exciting. erik: great having you here. your maiden voyage. i am pleased to have been along for the ride. let me just say not every guest who comes in for an interview gets to have a pre-chat by mr. bloomberg. nejra: that's true. fascinating. some great headlines there. ben saying the eels we saw in july will be the lowest in our lifetime. today.seeing money move up across the markets. much more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ nej

the same hedge fund that james is with. jeff palmer is a real estate developer in california who many people haven't heard of. >> add it all up and clinton has far and away more big donor support. $20 million from hedge $14 million from renaissance technology jim simons. more than $12 million and more than $10 million each from them. trump has only three donors in that category. [ indiscernible ] from the coveted small donor. novak: she has raised about 19-percent of her funds from small donors, a greater amount of money but a smaller share of her funds from donald trump. um, so if you take out the 54 million dollars that donald trump has given to his own campaign, um his share of small donors uh funding is about 43-percent, which is pretty good. i'm sharyl attkisson for full measure. how much are the candidates spending to get elected? as calculated by the center for responsive politics, the campaigns together were closing in on $2 ?billion dollars on october 31st. that's significantly more than what obama and romney spent

how do you hedge that? portfolios, we maintain underweight positions in equity stocks and try to trade around when the news looks dark. you can buy little something when it looks like an opec deal. the stocks are up, you let a little bit ago. oil is still trading in these 40's at pretty low levels, we have to agree. david: what about energy stocks that are not particularly pumping oil out of the ground, but are providing equipment. bob: everybody kind of knows that and those stocks have been in price.bid up the whole infrastructure area, the stocks have really run. alix: four years, in fact. the confusing macrolevel part is oil's relationship to the dollar. you thought oil would get pummeled. take a look at the bloomberg. it shows this correlation. typically dollar and oil are correlated negatively. sort of summa what is happening in the market. all normal correlations are totally off their head? to putat is a great way it. the correlations we have experienced the last several years are coming apart. the te

it should be once upon a time if you ask the hedge fund manager why you should invest in hedge funds he would say we are the best and brightest and we can outperform any other investment in any type of market. now if you ask a hedge fund manager or your consultants or mr. gotto or any member of this board the exception of prof. meiberger what reason you should invest in hedge funds you would all say in the event of a downmarket protection. well 2008 was a big down year. between 2008 and 2009 more than 2000 hedge funds after losing most of the money of their clients went completely out of business. in the last 10 years the vast majority of hedge funds have not even outperform the s&p 500. also in the past 10 years if you invested in according to the survey here, 500 [inaudible] most of the strategy head hedge funds with a 1% return on your investment. compared with 97% return on the s&p 500 in the same period. you may ask, why do pension funds still invest in hedge funds. [inaudible] asked that question yet you know what his answer was? hedge fund managers are much better salesman tha

for us we've put on enough hedges with the vix and the s&p.ur guys aren't -- >> i would give you alternate advice. i would say to someone if they're concerned about with 3% to 5%, they understand they would never make money with that attitude. when you are talking about 401k assets, ira assets, you can't touch the money for 20, 30 years anyway. what's the difference if you have a door to 5% down or even i if if it's 10%. i don't know that i'm good enough to tell people, all right, i got you out. here's the trump swoon. now we're going to rebuy all these markets. >> i know whether you are, and you are probably not, and who is? who is? >> that's the point. >> if we thought that this was a 10% decline from here, okay, then you have an argument to make. i'm going to make this argument. you're not going to have a 10% decline. not with the economy growing 2.5% to 3%. not what the labor market putting up 160,000 jobs a month still. you have to have a recession here in the u.s. my opinion. in order to get a 10% decline. the trump win is not going to s

it is a perfect hedge for the u.s. election.d climb if trump wins but wouldn't crash if clinton wins as well. are you seeing that? >> you are seeing that kind of hedging. if clinton wins, it does go up. what you are seeing is the market is generally testing the swiss national bank's resolve to hold that 108 line. they seem to be giving way a little bit and if you have a trump win and you've got all the european uncertainties, then the swiss are going to look great. >> if you have the brexit-trump as you mentioned, our imaginations start to open up and where else could we have political turmoil. might want to reconceptalize what they consider a safe haven. you mentioned switzerland, where else is a political safe haven that they want to park some capital? >> it's japan, i guess. odgenous really whom society and intracountry politics. and you have the united states, which is problematic. >> what about kiwi. there was an interesting story about billionaires moving to the end of the world to escape geo political risk, is that the ki

i would not recommend i would say to have hedges was the hard to have hedges in stocks.just don't own stocks. okay. we're tarting to see the effect of the tail enof the policy. where the end of the policy was very effective in the beginning and the asset prices, but now -- >> can i just clarify the point? if i'm sitting at home and have a portfolio, which chances are, people do, and i wanteded to hedge and you're telling me i can't, i'm better you have selling my entire position. >> reduce your portfolio. reduce to the point where you may not have to suffer if there's a reduction asset value. people overinvest typically. periods like these. and lot of people are what i call fake bulls. invested in sfoks because you know, they see better yield and they think it's safe compared to treasury bills. they yield nothing. >> got to start watching options actions at 5:30. >> great to have you. >> thanks. >> now to dominique chu with a market flash. >> if you're looking for a bright spot in the eight-day losing streak for the stock market, check out what's happeninging with the tr

which banks are the least hedged?> well, the larger banks tend to face the markets about 50-50 versus core deposits. your smaller banks, they're core funded. they don't have nearly as much market exposure to what we're talking about spread expansion that sort of thing. the nonbanks too. remember, it was a bloodbath. early in the year. the hits were taken. msr's. that's going to change now. i think you're going to see a gain as the average life of mortgages extends. prepayments are going to fall. people like quicken, for example, who have been very active in the refinance market are going to see that market dry up. people who have been focused on that business are going to have to find someone else to do. >>. >> one of the reasons that jamie diment offered to stay is because he sees the up side in this looser environment. >> versus the dog fight that he has had for the last eight years almost now. >> well, i don't know why -- what jamie is thinking. i'm glad he is going to stay, apparently. two thing. regulation is cle

hedging the referendum and the u.k., you probably would have been wrong.edging the election in the u.s., there is a very good chance he would have been wrong. for even the italian referendum, i'm not sure that's possible. we can think about is the fundamental direction of the economy. we will be talking about reflation for at least the rest of this month and probably through the february budget in the u.s. until that happens, you could see yields go up until we start getting some reality around how hard it is going to get growth and how hard it will be to get structural inflation and then we will see yields some of them. for now, hedging those decisions -- really hard. probably get it wrong if you tried. julie: we're talking about the so-called developed world. when you look at emerging markets, are you seeing a different narrative there and a need for a different strategy there? luke: very much so. i had a good long chat with our emerging markets desk team earlier today. they have been reducing the size of their long positions coming into the election thi

it's just ridiculous that hedge fund -- that you have a hedge fund and you pay the long-term rate.hese are the problems that we have under the obama administration. what's ironic, you would think, if you want to talk about political, why do you get the carried interest? >> i don't think you can blame the carried interest loop on the obama administration. there's been some deadlock in congress, they haven't gotten comprehensive tax reform done since 1980. >> you don't have to have comprehensive tax reform to change the carried interest. carried interest is a small thi thing, but you don't need tax return to -- i blame gridlock, i blame the inability to act. i did work on trying to get -- it was ridiculous not to get repatriation of the $2.6 trillion. reform for the government to tax say, take that 2.6 trillion back. and people agreed with me. >> donald trump keeps saying, he said it throughout the campaign, we need carl icahn, we need carl icahn, we need deals like his. what is it about you that america needs when it comes to making the best deals for the american people? >> look, i

talk about the hedge fund and what it did. >> yes. it is a rather small hedge fund.s really to play it safe when it comes to rest. they said heading into brexit, the stock market had rallied here at all the financial markets had rallied in anticipation the u.k. would vote to stay in the european union. there's not much more upside in the market here so instead, we will take a defense position, and in the event there is a vote to leave, we can snap up portrait -- corporate bonds while still protecting the portfolio. vonnie: we are seeing them in the u.s. i am sure there are some withdrawals in with -- in canada as well. >> it is not the same extent. i put that to people in the market and said, are there concerns with investors not getting the performances they say. because the industry is so young and so small here, we have not thaty gotten the size and is coming and concerned so far. vonnie: we wish continued success. thank you for that report. if you thought this election has been a roller coaster, get ready for the whiplash to follow. megan greene, chief economist.

hedge fund is up 40% so far.tz is trading with high levels of leverage and he has returned all client money. now blue crest only manages platz's fortune. ceo of lending club is planning a return to the industry he helped pioneer. he has started a new firm called credify finance. credify was incorporated in maine. -- may. that's your business flash update. scarlet, you're looking at walmart ahead of tomorrow's earnings. scarlet: walmart is the next big box retailer to report earnings. we know the ceo doug macmillan last month said he expects income next fiscal year, and here we are talking about the 12 month starting next january to be, quote, relatively flat. let's find out why. walmart's outlook sent its shares tumbling at the time, signal the retailer needs to do more to compete against amazon and draw customers into its supercenters. walmart has been pouring money into its website as well as its mobile app, unless quarter online sales grew almost 12% from a year earlier. if you compare that to total u.s. onlin

what i didn't count on were the performance demands on the hedge fund manager. as long as i w sachs recommending stocks, i needed to suggest my clients buy more of them in case they went down. that way i wasn't wrong. i could reiterate, buy, buy, buy. it was learning them on the fly got me down on my luck. buying stocks because you knew it was terrific didn't matter to my new investors. they wanted performance, often economy was just beginning to heat up. heinz was a staple, a good dividend. what i didn't understand at the time was when the economy heats up, people dump these stocks for something more cyclical and they do it in the blink of an eye. i watched when heinz, bristol-myers dropped more and more and more. they wanted stocks like diversion fied industrial machinery companies with eags perform daily. i realized that after i dumped my heinz and bristol-myers. start buying reynolds metals, phelps dodge. a few of yesteryear's mining and mineral companies. one demand by one of the guys was that my fund dropped more than 10% i would have to open the doors and

wall street generally, hedge funds in specific, given that there were a handful of hedge funds makings, that image has not played well over the last eight years. there is certainly concerned that if you roll back a lot of you make a lotif of changes, some of the good that has been done in the last 8 years will get thrown out with the rest of the bathwater, and you will end up in a situation where, got for bid, wall street id, wall street causes another crisis and you have the average joe yelling at the street again. simone'syou can read story on bloomberg.com. oliver: do small cap stocks still have room to run? beating the s&p for days now. we will discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ oliver: this is "bloomberg markets." i am oliver renick. scarlet: i am scarlet fu. time for "options inside" with julie hyman. julie: joining me is mark sebastian in chicago. great to see you. you are talking about something we have been talking about a lot today, the strength in small caps. fascinating market rotation, expressed in a lot of ways, but one of them is the strength in the russell 2000. w

office,ral counsel's the hedge fund, oppose the hiring of the person. it's not shocking the shortly thereafter that person began to engage it insider trading. i think people need to have good counsel, generally speaking. i think the person -- i'm sure this is true when you think about the cfo you have been other people in positions counseling you, not just in the law in compliance, but on other kinds of risk and competition and finances. i think generally leadership involves surrounding yourself with people who can talk to you like a peer does, and that's true especially of general counsel. rebecca: what is your impression of the results from this polling? is 30% in denial? preet: the 9% who are very worried, if you could come see me afterwards, leave your number . i don't knew the not at all people are. they're saying you would vote not at all, even if you didn't think it was a problem, because often people hedge. you can't always know. if that's what your view is, it must mean reputation only you are doing something correct because it does turn out to

often shield >> clinton's top donors who have been donald suss man, james simons, who is with the hedge fund, and george who everyone has heard of. >> a lot of the hedge fund billionaires have not come aboard with trump, but robert murs sr one who he used to support cruz. >> he supported ted cruz until he decided to come over to trump. >> donald trump's biggest donors have been robert mercer who is actually with the same hedge fund that james simons is with, the democrat. >> add it all up and clinton has far and away more big donor support. 20 million-dollars from pal 15.5 million from renaissance technology's robert mercer, about 2 million-dollars from real estate firm gh palmer and associates, and 2 million from the market started by home depot's cofounder. both candidates can brag of getting a lot of that money from the coveted small donor. >> she has raised about 19% of her funds from small donors. a greater amount of money, but a smaller share of her funds than donald trump. his share of small donors fundingis about 43%. >> i'm sharyl attkisson for full measure. >> the center for r

do you hedge naturally -- do you hedge nationally and do not take any bets? hedged for this already. at some point, the hedges roll off. at that point, the hedges do get hit. for some customers, this could be a good thing. we are talking about wealth in the mexican peso. exporters are hopeful. certainly for many, those could be distractions. tom: strong dollar, oil under $43 a barrel in the united states. the knock-on effects here are substantial. can oil migrate stronger? david: it could, but i don't think very much. fracking isng from such that you see supply pulling back. range. be in the 45 so, no. with the u.s. supply coming on and coming off -- jane foley, thank you so much. we will hear from her on "bloomberg surveillance" on radio in a bit. tomorrow on "bloomberg surveillance." -- paul de grauwe. we continue with david folkerts-landau from london. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: i am francine lacqua in london, with tom keene here for the week. let's get to corporate news with the "bloomberg business flash." apparel hasican filed for bankruptcy protecti

you know, i'm a hedge fund so it's hedging my bets somewhat, but you take in some premium and you can, buy it back cheaper if it comes in. >> there are a couple of moves that sort of got us wondering, wondering. >> visa and mastercard real underperformers today within this fortress group of financials. what's going on? >> maybe it's just a rotation out of those names we've been tough on so long. people need to put money to work elsewhere in financials. that's it. i don't see a real fundamental change in their business. to karen's point here, you know, now jpmorgan is almost 50%ish, give or take, above tangible -- at some point that matters, i think. maybe i'm wrong, i don't know. but they have gotten ahead of themselves. u.s. bancorp has been the way to play it. >>> for most of the year traders of fleeing emerging markets and there's one group in particular getting hit the hardest. >>> later donald trump called nasa one of the most important agencies in america during this campaign trail, so what will a trump presidency hold for the future of space exploration and which stocks could s

the bond market, just as a hedge against a sort of sharp moved to low yields mark:. else are you been hedging in the eventuality of a truck presidency -- a trump presidency? john: a trump presidency would be a risk off event. a little akin to brexit. an immediate shock and maybe a period of markets trying to work out what it means. essentially we have hedged about a quarter of our risk. we've done that by selling equity futures. we sold s&p ftse futures. we've also taken -- we are essentially short a number of asian currencies we think might get hurt by his trade rhetoric. we've also added long positions in non-dollar currencies like the yen in the swiss franc to protect against a bit of a safe haven flow. mark: if clinton wins i suppose the next to the attention is on the fed meeting. at 80% or so partly -- we are at 80% or so aren't we? john: i think they have built up to this. the bigger question may be whether the go beyond that or what they do. mark: and the answer to that? john: we think the market is complacent about the medium-term. we begin to see better gro

i have no short ek posure except for the vix, which is a trade, frankly, not a hedge.iscal stimulus is extremely powerful. >> we haven't even heard from you. let's fut it thput it this way, more inclined to sell this rally or take a break and sell more? >> what pete and i were doing and for clients as well as our own accounts, we were taking profits in u.s. steel. i know steph was big in that one. i know you were too. >> not me. >> u.s. steel and mt. these were crazy good trades. to josh's point, i think one of the things, josh, that's a little different than as you are describing, it is it would have been an obstructionist congress. they wouldn't get things done going forward if it was hillary clinton. now that it's trump, you will see regulations rolled back that they would not have done under ms. clinton, and you'll see some of the fiscal policies that steven is talking to enacted. >> all we're talking about is the initial knee jerk followed by this huge move that we saw to the up side. i'm telling you, people are saying they're glad the event is over. >> true. i ag

it could an outright bearish bet, could have been hedges against long positions.n i look at halbur to be, it's up 45% on the year. up 77% from the january lows. this is a year that also their $35 billion acquisition for baker hughes was struck down by regulators. they had to pay a $3.5 billion breakup fee. this is in a very nice uptrend. i suspect this trader is playing for a move kind of back to those recent lows. it's up about 25% since september. >> all right. for more options action, check out the full show 5:30 eastern time on friday. yes, we are back. we had a day off because of gobble gobble day. >> giddyap. >> we're back on friday. >>> still ahead, your cable bill could be getting smaller with directv's lower cost bundle but that may not be a bad thing. >>> plus, miss the trump rally? we will give you five surging stocks. the names and whether you can still get it. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. hey nicole. hey! i just wanted to thank your support team for walking me through my first options trade. we only do it for ever