rick santelli, >>> welcome back. panel is here. rick santelli, yamiche, katty and jeff greenfield. welcome all. what struck you the most about the podesta interview? >> what struck me most is that he sounded very flus willered when you asked him about wisconsin and their decisionmaking within the campaign and wisconsin. of course, russia is important and the fact that hillary clinton the focus on her private e-mails was something that hurt them, how democrats move forward is really going to be -- they will have to look at what they did in the election and who they lost and how they lost and why the turnout among the base was so low. that is what struck me most. he had other answers but when it came to his own campaign and how it was run, he wasn't as strong. >> what did you get out of it? >> he did say there's going to have to be an investigation because the donors are saying what did we spend our money on? one other thing that i thought was different was from my reporting with senior members of the white house, what they are saying is that after putin was spoken to by obama, the w

rick santelli with the santelli exchange. >> thanks, andrew.ope you had happy holidays, as every viewer out there tuning in or listener on satellite radio. you know, just relegated solely to the financial community domestically and globally, there's a lot of things i think we could have done better in 2016. you know? what a shame. for example, what a shame that savers didn't experience a bigger bump in 2016. for anybody that's tried to set up a mortgage or take out a loan or has a home equity line of credit, you experience the bumps almost instantaneously in 2015 and 2016. the savings side, not so much. you know, what a shame that we didn't see more reform in parts of the euro zone and china. as i look at all the stories in my inbox on ilgs or all the problematic aspects of certain parts of the banking system for some of the southern european countries it's a shame. we've come out of the crisis for so many years, but everything gets swept under the rug. also, japan, negative interest rates. even in europe. i think it's a shame that we didn't ha

let's get to rick santelli and check in with the "the santelli exchange." rick?erybody, of course, is scrutinizing what the ek second doi -- ecb is doing. yesterday we were doing "closing bell kwtsds i couldn't help but notice the dax uz up close to 2%, the ftse was strong, everything was strong, and it didn't seem to jive even with a big upday. now today maybe it's more clear. maybe it's not exclusively that mario draghi and what he said but there's no doubt we have four dax in a row that are higher. almost exactly even though we're still a bit below the all-time high, which is several months before that point. let's go to the beginning about markets. they tell you what's going on. they divine things as objectively as any other form of interpretation. take a euro two-year today, minus 73, a euro ten-year, down 38. down six on the twos, up thee on the tens. that means we have steepened by nine basis points. steepening in this case is very enlightening as to its interpretation. the short end is going with mario draghi, his no rules needed form of monetary policy a

dig rick santelli i don't know if he is there or not.you is a similar chart formation over a longer period of time with boeing. >> we can all get used to this. >> these double tops could just be fuel for the fire. i agree with tony. i think we see rates and stocks go up a little bit more. come back by the end of the year and turn on turbo thrusters in late january. >> rick, guy, tony, really appreciate you joining us here on "closing bell." be sure to check out more of guy. the bond blood bath continuing as the fed meeting does loom. what should you do with your portfolio? greg davis will give you his point of view. lockheed martin shares falling after president-elect trump took aim at the cost of the fighter program. we will look at how much of a red flag this could be for the industry. >>> trump's pick for labor secretary has been in favor of automation technology replacing workers. we'll hear from someone saying automation can create even more jobs. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. mary buys a little lamb. one of mil

rick santelli and "the santelli exchange." good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl.ial guest bob heller. thanks for taking the time, bob. >> good morning, rick. >> bob, before we get into the thick of this quickly, for viewers, two-year note yields aren't moving much, fives are moving a little more, but as you start to get down to the curve, tens are sitting at their cycle high closes and that's 244, the 30s have already blown through it and the dollar index is sitting right on its cycle high. so we want to pay attention to all those. listen, bob, this is a time of deconstruction, reconstruction, everybody concentrates on trump, but really it's the mission that he was sent there for. do you have any comments on some of the conversations you've been listening to? deconstructing and reconstru reconstructing a more efficient government isn't going to be easy but it's a task the markets seem to be enamored with. >> well, obviously it's very important to have right people in place. i think what trump is focusing on is to select leaders rather than managers and there's a b

meanwhile, a busy morning for rick santelli. what are you watching, rick?you know, of course i'm watching interest rates. they've come way down since the number. but they're still higher than they have been. we're going to talk about the reasons. we're also going to talk a bit about how globalization is a lot like a broiling frog. as a supervisor at pg&e, it's my job to protect public safety, keeping the power lines clear, while also protecting the environment. the natural world is a beautiful thing, the work that we do helps us protect it. public education is definitely a big part of our job, to teach our customers about the best type of trees to plant around the power lines. we want to keep the power on for our customers. we want to keep our community safe. this is our community, this is where we live. we need to make sure that we have a beautiful place for our children to live. together, we're building a better california. >>> good morning once again, everybody. i'm sue herera. here's your cnbc news update this hour. >>> michigan's attorney general has f

let's get to the cme group and check in with rick santelli and get "the santelli exchange." rick?thanks, carl. you know we like to keep it real in real time so before we get into the exchange today, i want to show you some charts with the current story dom and carl have been talking about with regard to china. if you look at an interday of two-year, an intraday of ten-year, intraday of dollar index. there is a response that makes sense, albeit a small one with the stock market moving down, flight to safety, pushing yields down a little bit and the dollar index getting some price volatility. it's not large in the cop text of moves we've had with janet yellen and company, but i like when we can cross-reference an event with market moves because there's logic to that. today's point, it's connected and are these loud, big moves in emerging markets and china, which is a sub seth therein, a yellen problem? not as in yell bug as in janet yell yellen. let's consider all the moving parts here. we have trumpl and trade. that's an issue. everybody who's going to want of course to use that is

santelli exchange." rick thanks, kayla. you know, a lot of discussion and rightly so by everybody with regard to what the markets are signaling. the markets in and of themselves aren't of the economy, but many of the investors behind the moves in the markets have direct correlations into how the economy grows, stays the same, or shrinks. to that end, we've gone through a period where we've all been optimistic about growth or had hope about growth, but the policies in place really weren't growth policies. and i think history has born that out and over time will bear it out in an even larger banner. what we have now is a market that's demonstrating as our passion just had a conversation about that things will get better, but is it really the same type of hope? i think it's much more calculated hope. let's pursue hit the way. we used to use the analogy when you go into a mall, there's a red dot, you are here. when you get lost, you have gps in your car, it goes through a recalculate. when you get lost, you end u

rick santelli.apple ceo tim cook walking the floor of the new york stock exchange here. he spoke to our bob pasani. more from that conversation coming up after the break. zpliefrmgt shares of qualcomm are under some pressure. regulators say they will fine the company $854 million for anti-trust violations. that's the highest penalty handed to an individual company in south korea. specifically the korean fair trade commission said they broke the law by limiting the access of competing chip makers to its patents. they forced cell phone manufacturers into unfair license agreements and refused to do business with firms that disagreed with its terms. qualcomm saying it would contest the decision. mike, have you to ask the question of at what point lench is a good thing and at what point it becomes a bad thing. >> it reminds me if you read the descriptions of what the south koreans said that qualcomm did. bundling. you have market power in one product, and you try to bundle other stuff and make people pay

let's send it over to rick santelli in chicago with the santelli exchange. >> good morning and thank you, david. i'd like to welcome my aloha partner and tuesday guest, charles beaterman. good morning, charles. >> good morning to all. >> all right, listen, post election no secret we've seen a pretty nice rally in stocks led by financials and a continuation in the sell-off in treasuries pushing rates up. do the flows that you so accurately monitor reflect those trades and can you give us some granular detail? >> well, we've seen huge inflows into u.s. equity exchange traded funds, record inflow. the last time we saw this much money coming in was in the summer of '07 right before the major downdraft. we also are seeing outflows from managed mutual funds, u.s. equity mutual funds, so money is going out of there and into passive. and on the passive side, we are seeing -- we have been seeing significant sums going into goi financial sector and energy etfs. but that seems to be slowing. we seem to have reached the top here, in my opinion. investors seem all in. we

rick santelli with "the santelli exchange," rick. >> thank you, kelly.to welcome my last guest before the christmas and hanukkah holidays and that of course is andy brenner. thanks for taking the time. >> rick, happy holidays to you. >> you as well. let's talk a little about next week what you see for the markets in the last trading week of the year. >> rick, one of the things, the most important thing we're looking at for next week is the fact that equities have still outperformed bonds in the month of december. there's going to be some pretty large reallocation trades from bonds into equities -- excuse me, from equities into bonds. we figure it's going to be somewhere between 35 and 55 billion out of equities and into bonds probably 30 billion to 40 billion. i tend to feel that's going to leave a good bit for the bond market and maybe you'll have to wait until the year end to get your 20,000 on the dow. >> you know, that makes sense. i still think last year's settlement at 227 is going to play into drawing yields down maybe just a bit. in terms of next

let's get over to rick and and check on the santelli exchange. rick? >> thank you, carl. 20,000 in front of what is or could be an implementation issue of the reasons many are purchasing stocks, pushing us to these levels. retro activity, policy changes, implementations of things like tax policy. we don't know exactly how tough they will be to push through. but we do know one thing. they're going to be less tough than many of the attempts in the previous 12 years or so, considering the landscape of congress. but even more important and more to the point, consider the time this is all happening. we have a fed embarking on the highest in ten years, policy shift. yet here goes the dow testing. big number i reference was 19,917. no secret you probably guessed it, that was yesterday's high. so if we look at this purely from a technical vantage point, especially considering it isn't necessarily most high volume time of the year. maybe even thin in certain markets and many investors may be forced to jump into this parade just because they don't want to be lef

rick santelli with the santelli exchange. rick. >> thank you, wilfred.to we can my second to last guest of the year, jim bianco. >> i'll take it. >> there we go. jim, for 2017, two issues i would like your opinion on capital outflows from countries like china and the european union. and, b, how the world of passive investing in etfs may harbor some secrets for 2017. >> i think you're going to see capital outflows from europe and china and would largely be a beneficiary to the united states. but within that the bigger story's going to be capital outflows out of china. let me be blunt about this, china's biggest problem in 2017 is going to be wealthy people leaving, leaving with their money. china cannot talk about that. no one can talk about that because there's been reprisals in the country for the last 18 months any time anybody brings that story up, but it's clear even in today's "the wall street journal" where they had a story about wealthy people trying to get their money out. they've lost confidence in the government. they won't say it out loud beca

. >> rick santelli and the santelli exchange. good morning, rick. >> good morning.nk you, kayla. the first day of a two-day fed meeting. we also know it's december. last december there was a tightening. do we look for a second? i certainly think so. 25? i certainly think so. 50? i really wish but i don't think that will happen. let's look at fundamentals, shall we? two charts. first, import prices year over year. we want to draw your attention to the fact that the right side that have chart and the left side, which is around july of 20 2014, are at the same place. what does that mean? we've had the smallest net year over year change in import prices since the summer of 2014. that means they're going up. there were bigger negative numbers. there were big price drops coming in. much of it was energy. that's a fundamental toenlg consider. another fundamental bant eebant around, ten-year yields. this chart starts in september -- couple of months sooner but last time we toyed with 2% or higher was september 2014. we're pretty much there now. we know the last fed meeting

to the cme group, rick santelli with "the santelli exchange." rick? >> thanks, kelly.ten, every day, pay quite close attention to interest rates in the cash market. now, of course, there's many ways to trade interest rates in the fixed income markets. the tlt will show a year to date chart as i'm speaking. tlt may be an easier way for many, etf. and if you look at chart, you'll see it's hovering in the 118 area. the reason i bring it up is there has been a lot of e-mails coming into my account the last couple of trading days talking about how there are significant positions going into year end being placed in out of the money calls, which means they're higher than 118. we're talking 124 to 126 area. so of course this is catching some people's attention. why? because the size is rather significant. so what does that all mean in english? there are some out there looking for a dip in rates into year-end and many of these options actually have a life that extend beyond december 31st, but it doesn't diminish the fact that as the market should prices move higher and rates mo

meanwhile, let's get to chicago and rick santelli and the santelli exchange. rick?thank you, carl. a lot going on in the marketplace. let's start with something simple. we had one data point today of note and that was the ism november for nonmanufacture. i want to draw a note that 57.2 read was the best of the year and indeed the best going back to october of 2015. we want to pay attention as we assess a baseline economic activity before, of course, the president-elect is sworn in and brings fiscal gasoline to the equation. also renzi referendum. we've talked many times on the euro versus the dollar. let's look at a chart of how it behaved. notice what the low is. can't make this stuff up. 95-sorry, 105.06. let's go to the chart we've used dozens of times. that chart clearly shows 105 is a very key level. the fact it held and had a big reversal might be a nice window for the fed to take advantage of as they are always fearful of rate rise with respect to the exports and multinationals. finally, you know, it was last week when we talked about the yield curve and how

now we'll get to the cme group, rick santelli has "the santelli exchange." rick? >> thanks, jon. know, i think it's absolutely crucial that the market has a good day today, and i'm specifically addressing the stock market. look at a two-day chart of the dow jones industrial average and remember, yesterday's high was 19,966. now, as a i look up on the board i see that the high's fall an little bit short of that today, 19,951. normally i would say a couple of things. i think it would be important to take out that intraday high and make it higher than yesterday's 19,966. that was made, by the way, a little after 2:00 eastern time, so a bit after lunch. if this market is going to go today, not only do i think it will, but i think it will go around the same time. so i think if 20 k is in the cards it will happen around 2:00 eastern time. if it doesn't happen, does that mean we can't get there? no. but i think if we close lower on the day, that would be really detrimental. now, is 20k a bad spot to take some profits? absolutely not. but that mentality will increase dramatically if we s

now to rick santelli and "the santelli exchange." good morning, rick. >> good morning. you know, disruption, disrupt or thes, these are all kind of new words. think some of the biggies, uber. we've seen major disrupters and creative destruction in so many different areas, but the one area that i think we need a little disruption is in some of the correlations. how many guess the last couple days point to some of the positives we've seen in the last month in equities and think, wow, remember last january? and as we're talking, you could look at some januaries in the equity markets, whether in europe, china, japan, the u.s. everything moved just about the same and memories are very good. we had jim bianca on today talking about that very january effect. i remember when january effect was a bit different. but right now everybody's january effect is similar on this trading floor. they're thinking what will happen in january that could take away much of the glitter we've seen over the last six weeks? well, i have a different slant on this. we now have the central bank going

rick santelli has "the santelli exchange." rick? >> hi, kelly.is that stock markets might track a lot higher. 20,000 and beyond. a new frontier. witness the voyage of the dow jones. its mission, to seek out all-time highs with new growth and productivity, to boldly go where it has never traded before. yes, i'm pretty excited. i think that there is always uncertainty in the markets. the current uncertainty about the new frontier is that we have a president who's really never been a politician. we have a republican senate and republican house is that that's still filled with establishment politicians and that ultimately it's all about the legislation. and i couldn't agree more. but i think that's an added bonus if most of that passes. i really think that part of the reason we are rallying is because we are going from klingon to cling-free. what do i mean by that? whether it's foreign policy, whether it's how we deal with russia, how we regulate markets, how we look at markets, whether we consider the fed, who has really less control in the entire m

stay with us. >>> now let's get to rick santelli in chicago with the santelli exchange. morning. >> good morning, and thank you, kayla. i'd like to welcome ed lazear. ed, my employment day first of , what did you think of the data points today paying close attention in your answer to, of course, what's going on with the drop in the unemployment rate, the rise -- drop in labor force, the rise in those not in labor force and particularly from 2.8 to 2.5 euro for yofor year over. >> you hit them all. in some sense it's a boring report. i guess that's good. what it suggests to me is based on the numbers you pointed out we're basically at a peak right now. the fact that the employment rate went down is a combination of two things. employment went up a bit and labor force participation went down. hours were flat. the employment rate, which you know i always like to look at, the ratio of jobs to number of people in the working age population was flat. wage growth was slightly negative, so that's not a great thing. doesn't look like we're taking off. doesn't look like a booming

rick santelli joins us now with demands on u.s. debt. moderate, something like that? >> yeah. no. the three-year note auction i gave a c-minus and the ten-year auction a reopening, a c-minus. the first didn't surprise me. yields have moved up, but that concession, as they call it, really didn't make a big difference because the fed is going to raise rates and the three-year will be dramatically affected by that. down the curve, the ten-year a different animal and most likely most effective by yield curve movements regarding the fed and things like inflation down the road, picking up a little bit. the growth initiative, what's going on. rates are going up with the blessing of the stock market. and, of course, the fed's balance sheet. the fed's reach isn't going to reach all the way down to the ten-year. quickly, today's high yield was 2 252. that's very key. if you comp. last time we were here, june of 2015, if we want to go all the a back to september, what we need to pay in '14, all we need to do is closer higher than 248.5, and the com

rick santelli at the cme in chicago. happy friday, rick. >> happy friday. know, the roller coaster analogy just keeps getting better and better. you know you get on, you have a wild ride, you basically get off the same place you get on. that's kind of like treasuries this week. if you look at a one-week of twos, you can see it's reverted back some of that volatility came out. we are now unchanged on the week with regard to twos up one on the day. look at the euro twos. boy, they're about ready to challenge an all-time low negative yield close. all they need to do is take out 70 -- minus 75.5 and they're pretty much right there right now. look at a one-week of tens, shall we? tens on the week they're up two on the day minus one. what's fascinating here if you look at a one-week of bunds they're up five. let's look at 11-1 start rally to tens. maybe it's not as tight of a range we had in august but still pretty tight in the intraday extremes always seem to revert back especially when you get towards the weekend. look at the same chart of bunds. their top of t

rick santelli as the santelli exchange. >> good morning. thank you. my gdp square guest, of course that's gdp paired with productivity. thanks for take the time, tim. >> good to see you, rick. thank you. >> the ongoing debate for the president-elect, still not sworn in, is the notion of getting 3% to 4% gdp growth. many are debating whether it's possible. so let's discuss it. can we get a lot more horsepower out of gdp and of course that would have to come with a commensurate rise in productivity to really boost it? what are your thoughts? >> well, short answer, because this is tv, is yes. of course. what i'm concerned about is that we get the formula right, and the first formula that we need to address is this inflation target from the fed. if you have an inflation target, you're diminishing the value of the currency, of the money. and that leads into productivity. productivity, as you and i know, we've talked about this, is your money goes farther and if the fed is undermining that, and it takes people and money, labor and capital, to make stuff, an

first, rick santelli, what are you watching?> i'm continuing to watch the notion that we're having a problem jumping the 20,000 area, and i'm wondering why. i can tell you one thing. there's a lot of reasons to be positive about this move that have nothing to do with when we violate 20,000. i call it a capital idea. tune in after the break. >>> the street is divided on where nike goes if here. our desk will settle that debate and we'll get the top small cap pick for 2017. our call of the day. we'll see you in about 15 minutes. >> sounds good. thanks. >>> just four days ago until christmas. you might be out of luck if you're looking to purchase an amazon echo before the big day. versions of the voice activated speakers are sold out on the company's website. the echo dot is expected to become available again shortly after christmas. for the larger echo, you have to wait until january 19th. this is going a whole lot better than the fire ever did, guys. >> it is. amazon doesn't report numbers on the echos sold so we don't know how g

let's get over to rick santelli in chicago. rick. >> wow, this is fascinating. so we get our december read on consumer confidence from the conference board, not to be confused with michigan. our last look was lofty enough, 107.10. that moves up to 109.4 and 113.7 is the new read. boy, that's the highest since august of 2001. that's a biggie. shouldn't be any surprise, though, given the performance of the market and the correlation of any confidence number to performance in markets, especially stock markets. and finally we're expecting 5 and we get 8. 10.2 is our last look and 10.2, does it stay? no, no, no. 4 -- no, richmond fed is the second best of the year and we want to continue to monitor -- is there any movement in rates on this? no, but they're still hugging up close to their high yield and close to the psycycle. >> we went most of this under 100. we are within 30 points of dow 20,000. let's bring in bob doll and jeffy saut. gentlemen, thanks for being with us. bob, let's start with you. you know, we're entering 2017 it looks like with everyone kind of wi

sara, back to you. >>> let's get over to rick santelli with a special edition of the santelli exchangeck. >> good morning, sara. of course on this first day of a two-day fed meeting, we do have a special guest. jean-claude trichet. it's always a pleasure, thank you for taking the time. >> pleasure to be with you. >> well, with the delay, i'm going to ask you three questions, mr. trichet. the first has to do with the post election market moves both domestically and even globally. we've seen stocks move up aggressively, rates continue to move up, the dollar gets strong. my question is, how should, in any capacity, our federal -- our federal reserve take into account post election moves with regard to their current policy which looks like the beginning of what will be a tightening cycle? >> well, first of all, let me say that i personally have full confidence in the open market committee to take the right decision in circumstances that are a little bit exceptional, obviously, because of the market reaction to the new election. i think that we have not to concentrate necessarily on short-t

the other side looks at them as high value. >> rick santelli in chicago.markets finally finding some legs after a very mild open for a while there. it was the narrowest range intraday that we had seen in several years. then as we've gotten higher and higher, that time horizon has gotten shorter. dow is up 18 to 22. although -- >> transports hitting a new 52-week high. >> cuban still talking on the hill. let's get back to headquarters and the half. ♪ upside down and inside out >> welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner. our top trade this hour, the drug stock sell-off. the two biggest etf's in the space. both under big-time pressure today following a comment from president-elect donald trump. the drug prices are too high. with us for the hour today steven weiss, jim levinthal, the brothers najarian. we begin with the president-elect who tells time magazine "i'm going to bring down drug prices. i don't like what has happened with drug prices." all right. john, how concerned should we be? >> i don't like what's happened with drug prices, quite fran

let's get over to the cme group and join rick santelli for "the santelli exchange." you. it's the final exchange of the year. kind of bittersweet, but nothing bittersweet about my guest tim cross. tim, thanks for taking the time. >> crickrick, good to see you. happy new year to you. thank you. >> happy new year to you and all our listeners. you wrote something i find fascinating and many are thinking it. when they look at the markets, there's not a lot of big trump fans out there other than all the people who voted for him, they say, ahh. and you wrote, honeymoon before the wedding. i get it. i have a retort to that. okay. maybe it's just the party before the divorce papers are final. so my contention is we're underestimating the fact that we've had a really cool president with really uncool policies towards business, his administration in my opinion thinks as highly of free market business as they do about the b bubonic plague. give me your reasons why you believe you're right. >> well, rick, i'm with you, i would say this that the american economy for the past eigh

rick santelli in chicago with those numbers, rick. >> yes.'m going to give you a couple of surprising ones too, actually. so let's look at the november read for personal income and spending. we were looking for up 0.3 on both, we missed on both, unchanged on the income side, up 0.2 at the spending side, there is bright news here though. our last look originally reported on the income side at 0.6, well, that was lofty, lost a little at 0.5 but held most gains. we gained 0.1 on the spending, originally reported up 0.3, up 0.4. personal consumption expenditure, core year over year something the fed likes to look at, our last look was 1.7, this time it was 1.6; arguably a tenth lighter. here's the interesting factoid, last month was revised up to 1.8. we haven't seen a 1.8 year over year pce core since 20 -- october of 2012. october of 2012. so basically over four years. that is something i think the market's going to react to. let's watch the long end see if those rates tick up a little bit. finally, november read on leading indicators just miss

first, rick santelli, what are you watching?> i'm watching inside one of the options pits and thinking what is the yield kufshg going to look like a month from now, a week from now, a year from now, five years from now? right now tens minus twos separated by 131 basis points. where will it be in the future? that's what we'll talk about after the break. crazy stressed o figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. isn't that right warren? well, you could get support from thinkorswim's in-app chat. it lets you chat and share your screen directly with a live person right from the app, so you don't need a comfort pony. oh, so what about my motivational meerkat? in-app chat on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. get involved in helping make sure their companies stay in their states or attract to their tate ises. that's pretty common for a state government to do. i don't know the details of this but i think it's pretty darn good people are keep ing their jobs in indiana instead of goi

rick santelli and "the santelli exchange." hey, rick. >> hey, kayla. a report you brought me, we're going to be talking about student debt. it's from the government accounting office, federal student loans education needs to improve its income driven repayment plan budget estimates. it's pretty thick. it's our prop. i drop it. what does it say? what should we look forward to with regard to change? what things should we be paying most attention to? >> so about in august i wrote a piece for "the wall street journal" that said that the federal student aid problem was a $500 billion problem facing this country. the department of education has underestimated that. low and behold two weeks ago gao drops this report that says the department was actually underestimated to the tune of $108 billion. and they're only 24% of the way through the loan program. so my number of $500 billion is kind of looking very, very real right now. >> now, if this was a company, and this report was done, how would that effect the board, the stockholders and all the various regulat

let's go to rick santelli, thank you, dom, now to chicago for "the santelli exchange." ning, rick. >> good morning, sara. thank you. i'd like to welcome my first guest of the holiday week, jim karen, thank you for taking the time. >> thank you. >> i've had many spots we've talked about get used to natural gas in the room and you can't even notice it's there. this kind of baton handoff from abnormal to normal with regard to rates and many things about the economy, what observations do you have at this critical juncture? >> well, i think what's important to us going forward is really looking how we return to organic growth. so a lot's been talked about fiscal policy. you know, if it was really all about building roads, bridges and tunnels, then places like europe and japan would be growing at remarkable rates. it's not about that. it's really about structural reforms, about regulatory reforms, it's about kickstarting organic growth. what's been missing in the economy has really been for the u.s. has been business investment. so why have businesses been remiss to invest? we

our rick santelli.nwhile, watch the markets relatively mild open. 19,970, current level down about six points as you see on the board, boeing, nike, utx leading the charge. goldman for once the laggard. we're back after a break. >>> dow 20k once again the story of the morning. we're down about ten points to 9,964, again, the debate about valuations, would-be policy complications, sentiment, colliding with expectations for stimulus, seasonality, pain trades, jim. >> yeah, i mean, that's why the tug of war is kind of equal right here. i urge people to recognize that with a very thin market someone who just might want to just get this thing done, move things up, which there are people who will do that, move things up and keep it up, might just come in with guns blazing here in the futures market. and it could move all these stocks. and we could be trying to figure out, okay, why did shelchevron o 119 -- the answer is futures moved it up. the 1030 mark with the inventories will be a reason to come in if inv

let's get to rick santelli as well at the cme group in chicago. morning, rick. >> good morning. lots of volatility. let's start at the most beneficial sector and in my opinion that's equities. consider a lot of volatility in fx, no new extremes, lots of volatilities in rates, no new extremes, but if you look one-week of the dax it's been climbing. it started its climb in earnest yesterday. when you consider, open the chart up to early 2014, what you'll see is the dax all-time high is in the spring of 2015 at 12,374. it's currently at 11,150. that is a one-year high. as you look at our record equities, look at the dax making up lots of ground, all the boards throughout europe equities really seem to be the beneficiary. if you look at a european two-year, yeah, we moved in a way that really is a steepening trade as they're mostly lower in yield, but really not making any new extremes. you look at a 24-hour chart of bunds, the extreme made here takes you back to the highest yields since january of 2016. we are flirting with the high yields in the nei

with "the santelli exchange," the dow less than 20 points away from 20,000. rick thank you, sara. like to welcome my special guest this morning, last guest of the week, richard farr. thanks, richard. >> merry christmas, rick. how are you? >> merry christmas. thank you. listen, you've written extensively about china. we all know that after the december rate hike in 2015, january, china were all big stories, capital outflows, fear of higher rates, we saw futures trading and bonds halted in china for the first time yesterday. last night we saw two auctions, three and six-month bill auctions failed to sell full allotment. what's going on? what are your thoughts? and how does this play into what we may be expecting for all markets in 2017? >> sure. so it's pretty obvious to everyone who's followed china that there is a bubble in housing in china. the question is what pops these things. as we saw in the u.s. it could go on four, five years and it takes something to push it over the top. so in the case of china there's been an event. we have a new administration coming i

rick santelli has the santelli exchange. rick? >> thanks, john. let's start off with the markets.ld adage on trading floors, you get the most volatility at tops and bottoms. have you noticed much volatility with respect to highs and lows, ranges and closes in the equity indexes? i haven't. have you looked at treasury closes as of late? high yield close and one brief close for the most part it's been under the 230s. this consolidation is significant and it may mean where many are looking for big retracements, consolidation may be the big retracement. everything is about boeing, trump, tweeter in charges judge just pointed out. but i'm going to call this optics action. it goes back to everything we discussed regarding brexit, trump, tea party. he won fair and square. look at the things that have been promised. is there anything more transparent that a tweet? if you want to see what he says without having people in the middle try to tell you what somebody meant, as aska. >> listen, it's nudging. is this really any different than the notion of quantitative easing, japan buying stocks,

let's get to cme group, rick santelli with "the santelli exchange." rick?to welcome peter boockvar, no stranger to cnbc viewers and listeners. thanks, peter. >> thanks for having me. >> all right. listen, if you were king, before the election, the end of october this year, you could peg funds where you thought they would be appropriately placed, where would you have put that level? >> 1.75% to 2%, historically it's been 200 to 300 basis points above the rate of inflation. let's not get ahead of ourselves. let's call it around the rate of inflation, 1.75% to 2%. >> coming into 2016, what did janet yellin and her committee through all the various connect my dots, what did they peg as a number for rate hikes for 2016 at the end of 2015? >> in their crystal billion ball, they expected four rate hikes in 2016. >> and of course we received one. >> correct. >> is there any way we'll see more adversarial coverage of this really poor track record of predicting and giving us any type of significant forward guidance? the only way we'll get more adversarial coverage of

add it all up, and you could be looking at, as rick santelli says really, sustained period of growthn this economy. getting out of this 2% funk. we get a good gdp number and then it goes back. this could boost, as indicated by the two money men, the commerce secretary and treasury secretary, the story of the week. >> either way, the dollar ending the month with three days in a row declines just changing the direction a little bit at the margin. >> and gold suffered as a result of that. it has a weak month. worst in several years. >> now, to today's economic agenda. jobs and manufacturing are in focus. 8:30 a.m. eastern, followed by ism manufacturing index and construction spending at 10:00. look for results from dollar general before the open and workday and smith & wesson after the close. the nation's automakers will roll out. three things to watch in those numbers. >> go look at the auto industry with november car sales data. here's what you want to watch in the report. first are the numbers. year-end deals are helping but can't quite offset the retail demand softening in november

ahead of the fed, rick santelli has the numbers for us. rick. >> yes, i do.ober read on business inventories, you know, not a top tier number but something fascinating here. it's down 0.2%, a little more than we were looking for. but here's the interesting point. down 0.2% would be the weakest of the year, weakest all the way back to november of last year. and we've had a lot of minus two tens, to find a bigger number you have to go to december '09. that's kind of the defining baseline. we want to pay attention to that. suffice to say dollar's lower, rates are lower and for the time being stocks are lower. we'll see how all that sets up at 2:00 eastern when janet yellen drops some data bombs on the marketplace. back to you. >> okay, rick, thank you very much. it is d-day at the fed, as rick says, fed chair janet yellen expected to announce a hike in rates for the first and only time this year. stocks right now in waiting mode. dow's down, s&p's down 2. let's bring in chief investment officer at bmo private bank, good morning, guys, good to see you both again.

rick santelli at the cme group in chicago. rick, good morning. >> good morning.now, today's a pretty important day in the fixed income markets especially if you're looking at other sectors like stocks. why? because rates a firming in a positive fashion, if there is such a thing, the dollar as well. usually these are accompanied lately by more improvement in equitie equities. so i would say 20k is definitely in the cross hairs. yesterday we had a two-year note auction. so the new guy takes over today with regard to where its yield is trading. and it's the most actively traded. well, there was a spread yesterday so if you look at intraday of twos notice we're trading at 1.28, why is that significant? the old two-year high closing yield is 1.27. if you open the chart up, it blends together. so tins the beginning of december you can see that little peak there that we've taken out. that was the highest closing yield, open the chart up, since the summer of 2009. so we're challenging that right now. we have a five-year on tap today. the five-year's high yield close for

joins us for our final "closing bell" exchange of the year along with peter costa and our own rick santelli from the cme in chicago. tom, what is the story of the year for etfs for you? >> almost $300 billion in etfs. 50 billion in the top three etfs all s&p 500. so the appetite is there. 74% of advisers just told us two weeks ago that they plan on adding more money into etfs as we go into next year fuelling bull market and stocks and bonds. if there is a correction there are alternatives out there hedging on currency and hedging on higher interest rates and also diversification to multi strategies. etfs has a little bit for everybody next year. >> peter costa, we have talked last several times we have spoken to you about how you got out of the market here. do you anticipate getting back in in 2017? >> i think what i'm looking for is the after the first couple of weeks of trading next year and seeing how the earnings start coming in. i think like i have said before that i think a lot of stocks all got ahead of themselves. i think there will be a correction to bring them back to some sort of

let's get to the cme group and get the santelli exchange. hi, rick. >> hi, carl. big noub day is minus 77. charts, please. you look at a two year european note, that could be the new historic high-low yield close that certainly an intraday move of note worthiness. and it's not only limited to the two year, three year notes carving out new negative territory as well. now what should the fed do? with the policy regarding these big moves, we had many, many economists, analysts, guests trying to address this. so let's frame it out quite simply. should the fed be preemptive or should they be permissive? and pretty much mark olson to y today, they were both in the permissive camp. so what do they say? they say that fed should wait to see the whites of the eyes of the data a couple months in the future regarding how today's market moves should be assessed. the foundations and solid foundation is this built on the notion that donald trump with a republican house and republican senate will be able to do all the things he's going to do? okay. being permissive says just take

our own rick santelli as he is here. he at the cme. jonathan, i get to you first. we get closer and then we back off. why? >> i think everyone was clearly waiting for the fed yesterday. i think the euphoria might be pulling out right now. no real conviction to get into the market. no real conviction to stay in the market. we have seen it gradually move higher and higher. i know the 20,000 number is a psychological number. we have to disconnect ourselves a little bit from that. we have to look at where the market has been and if we are going to get the santa claus rally. >> and some big moves in the currency market. what are you thinking in terms of strength of the dollar? >> absolutely. that is one thing that the markets have right now with conviction is to buy dollars. the fed was more hawkishly expected. the markets believing them. we ended with a hike. the fed said they would hike four times this year. they only hike once. next year the fed is saying three times. i think it is more than that. it is very dollar positive. monetary remains in play. >> i want to pus

rick santelli was talking about rising interest rates. it is real interest rates which is a growth signal and probably profit signal. there are going to be corrections. >> and as evan was saying in the last discussion this could be a huge sea change when you guys and he named you specifically if you come into the white house and are able to push for the pro growth stuff here. corporate tax reform was spoken about broadly. can it happen and happen right away? and so how confident do you feel that everything being priced in right now and all the excitement that will actually come to the fore. >> i hate to say it but i agree mostly with evan on this particular one. your question is really a difficult question and a hard one. i think you're asking me about the timing of the business tax cuts or the whole tax cut package. and there is discussion in washington. i don't think they have made up their mind. bear with me on this. you may have two budgets and two reconciliation bills. reconciliation means 51 votes in the senate. you may have a budge

joining us right now to talk about it kenny polcari and rick santelli checks in from chicago. it would appear that the post election rally has stalled to some degree here. we seem to have hit a wall even though we do keep hitting record highs the dow is in record territory the s&p is very close today. >> the market is up. it is performing nicely. you have to love what has happened in the last three or four weeks if you are looking forward to what the hope of the future is. i wouldn't be so surprised that we seem to be hitting a wall near the highs. the market has moved quickly. it has moved in a straight line so it needs to digest. it doesn't feel like it wants to collapse. it does feel like it needs to digest right after before it makes the next attempt to move higher. >> what about the strength of the small caps? is this one of these indexes you would still look to as a kind of leading gauge for the rest of the market or is it in its own world? >> understand something, small caps are very u.s. centric names. they are not affected to the stronger dollar story that affects mul