more dollar appreciation. and many of them are not necessarily very significant. but just to say that, you know, you can't say that there is going to be -- it is not a mathematical identity that there will be an exact appreciation of 25% in the dollar, just that it will be approximately that amount. other thing to point out is the timing, people say, well, how long will this take? well, it should take negative time. that is it should -- capital markets move faster than trade, and before the border adjustments come into effect, the knowledge that the dollar will be stronger should be enough to cause the dollar to rise. and so that's actually a concern. one wants to adopt this relatively quickly once it becomes clear it is going to be adopted. just one final point on this, if adjustment of exchange rates is complete, and i'm not saying it would be, that's not of course the end of the story. there would be an alternative mechanism for adjustment of u.s. wages and prices upward, that is it would be reflected in th

an example being companies with outstanding contracts dollars which even if the dollar adjusts would not necessarily return because contracts have been signed. there are some transition issues, what to do about interests on existing loans. there are important transition issues to be considered. one could do that thinking about the import and export side and that is the place to focus rather than thinking of gradual implementation of the border adjustment. >> questions? mike is coming around. >> suppose the us adopts border adjusted tax and the rest of the world with the origin system. it seems you have serious transfer prices, a manufacturer held to a related distributor, the tax base in both countries? >> as i said in my comments, the incentives current companies currently face to shift profits out of the us to lower tax countries would reverse because the us will effectively be the lowest tax country up there with tax havens, 0 tax havens so the incentives for multinationals in profit shifting, will not disappear, will not be a direct concern to the us because it will not affect ta

dollars. affordable housing built under it, give financing you guys recognize that. late of impending federal cuts to hud or just generic structure i know in the development of affordable housing 21 every single bearable for the housing dollar to go to community development and housing here in the city this event and for the housing? do we want public investment affordable housing to be returned to affordable housing or do we want to use on private clinical campaigns? to meet users clear and colleagues i hope to have your support. >> thank you supervised cardenas. supervisor kim >> thank you president breed. i just want have my thoughts to this ordinance. this proposed ordinance and why i will be opposing it today. now i just want to start by saying there's nothing wrong with raising concerns about anyone spends their money could all of us here in the chamber do it and all of us work hard to expose the source of revenue which funds campaigns that we are opposed to and there's nothing wrong wit

this is the dollar. the rise of the dollar on the accession of trump into the white house and his promised policies, and there, down, down, down. you seem the dollar touch a four-month low. the 200-day moving average could be breached. thisof america merrill say is still one of the most crowded trades out there even though 32% of their survey say the dollar is overvalued. buoydata isn't going to the dollar. manus: anna: interesting to see just how far the dollar has retreated, almost erasing the gains it has made. putting up the risk radar takes is a bit further into that dollar story. we've got dollar-yen in there for you. it is 110.40. will it go below 110? does that trigger some stop orders? we will keep an eye on how that trades. s&p futures, looks as if we need another day to factor in that , orat for the republicans disunity among the republicans on capitol hill. volatility does seem to be increasing. this perhaps a silver lining. the vix, that measure of volatility, staging its biggest weekly incr

dollar?e had goldman sachs up there expectation for a -- their expectation for eight march rate hike. we will be as soon as march? jonathan: the house of you from j.p. morgan is we have two hike this year, the next one in may. the way the market pricing has shifted, there is risk we get that sooner than expected in terms of a move at the march meeting. we are still in a situation where the overall trend up in u.s. interest rates is still a steady kind of adjustment path. the market is not pricing in everything aggressive at this stage. if that were to change under a scenario where we saw a real jump higher into the u.s. inflation expectation, then we supercharged more u.s. dollar environment. but that is the production scenario. yousef: we will continue our conversation. that is jonathan kavanaugh. he is speaking -- sticking around. let me show you what you can do with bloomberg. you can follow this story and many others in the live box at mliv go. you can get the market and commentary, analy

the dollar starts picking up a bit. we will probably see a tight range in the dollar index around the 99, 98 -- probably some softness around these issues, but a slightly milder dollar trend still continue as u.s.opments out of the develop positive signs. haidi: in terms of where we see the yen going, it has been stuck at that 110-111 handle. the next leg down would be 10 seven. where do you see that going, particularly in light of the uncertainty over the dollar rally? >> i think what you are seeing now, you might see aroundttently dollar-yen 108-110 in the current environment. we are seeing flows, if you look , ecb, currencies, euro boj, you are seeing some weakness come on stream and the dollar strengthening against those currencies, and similarly for the asian side, but you'll probably see that range until the dollar starts strengthening and a more sustained manner. 120ill not see it break unless the boj comes up with changes on the policy side in japan. come inust quickly april we have the highly anticipated u.s. t

dollar. >> so we are looking at the dollar.t, steven, that this morning it's sitting at a four-month low and has nearly wiped out all of the gains post eve election, does that mean that stocks are going to follow suit? >> look, i don't think we'll see that kind of comparable equity market in this. we are not at the end of an economic expansion. if you look at u.s. equities in the fourth quarter we were at record high profit levels already. i didn't find it that difficult to get to 2017 in the absence of tax cuts. i think that means a good deal for equities. i think that international component of equities and the currency don't is now the more interesting player. >> steven. >> good luck with the traffic. >> steven wieting of citi. that's it for "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" is next. >>> good morning, global markets are in the red. given the health care failure. and the party if the white house moving on to tax reform. >>> getting down to business, president trump's sonld jared kushner to run the american office of innovati

i want to show you the dollar for a moment because we saw, this is the bloomberg dollar index and wet come down as trump spoke. this is 2:00 a.m. u.k. time to 4:00. it has now come back up on the fed expectations. this is the power of the fed over the president on the dollar. guy: the market is opening up your let us see what these market makers have to offer this morning. this is the picture we are checking, 1% jump in many of these today. this is what we saw overnight from the fed and follows what we saw from donald trump. the fed seems to be driving the action. cace 100 opening up .3%the has opened up --.3%. up .8%.ac some underperformance from the ftse 100. interesting stocks stories, ethics stories, bond market stories today with all of the action. manus cranny. manus: no stock markets will be moved again. couple of other things coming through. seefinal pmi, beginning to german inflation data across the terminal app. the dollar is stronger. [coughing] manus: excuse me through financial to our better bid. the china manufacturing data, that is nice and brisk. the transition mechan

nejra: how does this leave through to the dollar -- feed through to the dollar?ersus realized volatility, a little bit of a gap -- gap, if the options traders are correct, we said -- ftse dollar-yen stuck in the range. interesting moves over the past couple of days and euro-dollar and in sterling. what will be the driver for the dollar now? where does it go? >> if you are thinking about the dollar broadly, think about the composition of the broad dollar index, with heavily weighted towards the yen and the euro. , thee, for our team easiest path for the yen is probably down. it could weaken against the dollar because of a divergence and monetary policy. be fed working to normalize things here and the bank of japan taking the 10 year yield at zero. vonnie: they do not like it strengthening. >> it should provide a boost to the underlying economy which is what the are targeting. we could see euro strength against the dollar. going forward. the view is that, on the one hand, the federal reserve normalizing policy. he bought the ecb would stay easy but now the ecb is p

dollar board, the dollar bounced back a bit the past couple of days.f recent weaks has been a softening of the dollar after that run up of the election. yesterday it was stronger, particularly against the likes of the euro. the reuters story, saying an unnamed source at the central bank had said the comments from mario draghi the last meeting had been overinterpreted in terms of how quickly we could see an end to the loose policy. so we saw yields in europe react to the down side yesterday. the euro came off with it. that just helped stocks. it's continuing today. the euro is down about 0.3%. no real move for the dollar against the yen and pound. >> the big story of the quarter is the dollar really went lower. it's near the lowest level since back in november is that a tell for the overall trump/reflation trade? it was one of the first assets to jump higher after the election with yields, sending stocks higher. will stocks follow suit or are they beating to a different drum? >> the brot ebroader dollar indn 1% for the month. 2.2% for the quarter. joini

the aussie dollar is one to watch. 75.61. down .1% against the dollar.eacting to the fall and business confidence and conditions out of australia today. we had retail sales coming through, in terms of commodities iron or is surging up 3.5%. mixed movement in terms of bond yield in the asian region. some of the stocks, toshiba a big one. falling by almost 7% in the japanese afternoon session. april 11 announcing it learnings. got -- samsungs propping up the south korean market of 1.7%. is this reporting that samsung is continuing its review into shifting to a holding compass he -- company reports from a may. movers in the section on what has been a lackluster day. tracy: we are getting a headline saying that toshiba has gotten approval to extend the earnings deadline to april 11 area definitely more to watch for on that front. anchor: hey. the uk's ever closer to triggering brexit. theresa may winning the parliament approval to invoke article 50 of the lisbon treaty. a result from her own conservative party to have common sense. thess the board as well an

. >> it seems like the dollar is really helping the move, especially dollar-yen.et's get to the market open with david. talk about dollar-yen quickly. the today chart, as you can see, it's rarely clear that the rates should all be shifting to the upside. that's what traders are telling us at the moment. there is some upside risk ahead of the jobs report later on today. about 30 minutes back you might want to watch this 115-62 there. that's towards the maximum range. we could see more buying. that has really spurred a lot of these models back into action, more money coming in. , 115.13 is your level now. looking at the open in tokyo and seoul. we will talk about more of what we are expecting in the next two or three hours there. there we go. risk premium a little bit there. .4% on the aussie market. they are getting an upgrade from jpmorgan to neutral. at other currencies we are following. this is really more about dollar-yen. euro, one of 5.83. -- one of the very rare occasions that we are going to hear the governor speak later on, 10:45 a.m. in beijing. 1200 on g

look at dollar, you have the dollar moving higher. all down to shift in the probabilities from the fed that want to make march as live as possible. that's what they have managed to do. the dollar is up. you also see dollar-yen on the move. anna: meanwhile we see a commodity gold down .4%. a lot of moving parts in relation to the fed and trump. let's move on. we want to talk about what's happening in the supermarket sector. fourth quarter earnings and beating estimates. let's get straight to c.e.o. who joins us from amsterdam. he is dick boer. great to have you on the program. you seem to be taking costs out of the business quick lism what is allowing you to do that in the united states? dick: we continue to focus on our efficiencies in the united states. we need to deliver according to our plan by the merger of the two great companies coming together and at the same time of course in a deflation environment to drive volume growth is also important for our business. manus: you have a target of 500 reduce costs by 500 million euros. tha

dollar. first place i looked this morning when i woke up. overnight action in the currency, this was the market that was open and reacting first to president trump's speech. the dollar is surging now. if you look at last night and what happened during the president's speech it was on the back burner. it was weaker. not moving a whole lot. a lot to of the strategists saying there was a lack of specific policy. nothing to really upset the markets. he talked about all of his agenda, pro growth, infrastructure, healthcare, tax cuts. we'll get to details in a moment. what you need to see now, is that dollar strengthening on the idea that the fed looks set to hike rates in march. that's a change in sentiment and rhetoric from the fed. let's get to that top story, president trump addressing congress for the first time last night outlining the agenda. also addressing recent market rallies and his plan for taxes. >> my economic team is developing historic tax reform that will reduce the tax rate on ou

dollar.di: you talk about countries with huge trade sensitivities, in which countries in the do think have a compelling domestic story? we talk a lot about this reflation trade, but arguably the u.s. reflation trade versus emerging markets are two different sets of drivers. >> totally. in a show what is clear is that within each economy, once you break down the gdp, there are two clear current trends. one, when we think about nations looking at e-commerce, health care, and services come look at the penetration of basic financial needs in terms of bank accounts and insurance policies in countries like india and indonesia. we are not even a quarter of the way when it comes to opportunity, so we are thinking about asia 2.0 as a summary of a thesis about what sectors in the u.s. economy will be driven by domestic change and evolution, putting aside the bigger sector such as financials, commodities, they tend to be global in the nature. haidi: what about the implications of a potential if not a tr

dollar.ou have a lot of investment banks and research houses saying , wait, wait, wait. this dollar rally is oversold. >> we have a completely different picture. we think the u.s. dollar should further continue to strengthen. to-three rate hikes, most likely next week there will be another coming, and this would speak for a strengthening of the u.s. dollar , also with inflation in the u.s. being much stronger than in the other region of the world like europe or japan. i think the fed clearly has to do more, and the interest rate differential between the u.s. or yen wouldro widen further, and that would speak to a stronger u.s. dollar. shery: why do we continue to see this big drop in dollar longs? consecutive weeks of selling when it comes to dollar longs. why aren't more people position towards rate hikes? >> i think of course if you look at positioning, different than last year. there are already a lot of long u.s. dollar investors, so hence inry small disappointment some sort of tone, be i

dollars. affordable housing built under it, give financing you guys recognize that. late of impending federal cuts to hud or just generic structure i know in the development of affordable housing 21 every single bearable for the housing dollar to go to community development and housing here in the city this event and for the housing? do we want public investment affordable housing to be returned to affordable housing or do we want to use on private clinical campaigns? to meet users clear and colleagues i hope to have your support. >> thank you supervised cardenas. supervisor kim >> thank you president breed. i just want have my thoughts to this ordinance. this proposed ordinance and why i will be opposing it today. now i just want to start by saying there's nothing wrong with raising concerns about anyone spends their money could all of us here in the chamber do it and all of us work hard to expose the source of revenue which funds campaigns that we are opposed to and there's nothing wrong wit

if dollar men --dy or dollar-mexico dollar-renminbi or dollar-mexico is stable.ou can pick up this chart on tv . this is different than asia dxy. down we go, weaker dollar. i think a lot of people are not aware of this resiliency of a trade weighted dollar. steven: i think it is interesting. it gets back to both currencies we have been talking about. renminbi, mexico, canada, these currencies have a big weighting as far as the trade weighted dollar is concerned. it can be doing different things . for example, talk about dollar-rant and dollar-yen -- dollar-rand and dollar-yen. francine: what is the one thing people misunderstand about yen? .e talk about demographics something that could help in terms of structural reform that could mean japan is on a different path for the next two years? steven: there is a lot of skepticism about structural reform. i was recently in japan two weeks ago on a roadshow. the message i gave was that the dollar-yen in particular, we think it is the dollar side driving things at the moment, rather than the japanese side. over the

on the dollar, a massive reaction to the dollar.ndex down a percent on a day the fed hikes rates. does that suggest we can't have more dollar bullishness from here? >> you know what? i wanted to ask you a question. when was the dutch news out in the market. i wonder if that played at all. >> came after 4:00 p.m. so the market was already rallying on that. it didn't have that news, i think that's positive. what about the exit polls? were they out during the day? >> they came at 4:00 p.m. >> still at 4:00 p.m. i can't factor that in. but, look, i have to think in this context, they think europe will come along a little bit. as i said from the last draghi press conference, i thought maybe it was the end of the beginning when it came to the massive european stimulus programs coming from the european central bank. i thought he was signaling the first positive steps away from that massive program. that's part of it. they have to believe at this rate that europe's got to catch up a bit with the u.s. >> steve, great stuff. thank you very mu

dollar. do hold a hugeds amount of the story. if yields were to suddenly lurch higher, that would drag the dollar to higher levels. but we don't really believe that story. as long as you don't believe this story, it is difficult to get bullish on the dollar. looking on the bloomberg terminal, ppp estimates, the , fair value, it is 134. we are down at 106 read i many academic measures, the dollar is very overvalued at these sorts of levels. in the second half of 2014, the dollar really did move higher on expectations of interest rate differentials moving in favor of the dollar. the fed pushing interest rates up relative to everybody else. yesterday's story, we saw the ecb, the markets beginning to may taper quantitative easing even further. the markets again different leave out europe. that could give the euro a little bit of support. formcularly if they cannot governments in the netherlands or france. manus: another spoiler could be what trump says about it. dollar-yen. want to close with thi

the caveat is that the dollar-yen, we did the resurgence in the dollar overnight.g those losses at 111 in response to euro futures up this morning. this is daybreak asia, i am yvonne man in hong kong. betty: and i am betty liu in new york. the world largest asset manager said to be taking up its -- shaking up its struggling unit. blackrock is lowering fund that its active equity unit. blackrock and its rivals say mounting pressure from investors over fees, clans are moving to hurt itsystems that active managers. yvonne: hsbc may raise cash for a private credit fund. they are seeking as much as $1 billion as they look to benefit from other banks pulling back from corporate lending. that would move to an asset management unit to widen access to institutional investors. it has not been formally sets. praise from president trump, announcing a $1.2 billion investment into three michigan factories. fore will be engine plants ranger and ford models. the investments are part of 2016 contract negotiations with united auto workers union. three rate hikes in 2017, looks like

so the dollars should adjust. there are many complications. in some even point to award dollar appreciation so to be a mathematical identity. and to be approximately that amount. it should take in should move along faster than trade. that is actually a concern. and if that adjustment is complete than that is not the end of the story. and n with the dollar exchange rate. and that will not happen if they did not fully just. and it has been understood for very long time with a positive decline with the assets held by american in companies. i have the day hyperlink to give you my own estimate with that would mean of tune trillion dollars i have seen much larger estimates. i have my methodology of the document edits say hyperlink to those that will give you a larger number. so with the elimination of profit shifting why we would want to adopt a system like this. so that eliminates is a tax that can be assessed it into explain but ludwig paid that i found useful is after a 20 percent devaluation if you are a company looking at a production facility

dollar. asked him if that was standing in the way, he had a savvy political answer that it's not that the dollar is too strong, it's that other currencies are probably weaker than they should be. >> which is a clever answer. look at china. we got a trade deficit out of china. it's not a trade deficit with the u.s., it's a net figure for all of china. but clearly times change. they are an emerging market. it's natural, as we discuss in detail, that an emerging market to the biggest economy in the world will have a deficit from the u.s. perspective at this page. china has shown net with all the countries it trays with. it's forcing the hand is what they're trying to do, which is a worry for the net effects of global growth. >> what is not clear is the impact on the markets of trade polls from this administration. you hear hand wringing about it from mainstream economists, strategists, big investors, but hasn't shown up in the stocks. the question is -- look at the dow. the dow is an internation

it is not fighting dollar for dollar with direct response. winning new dollars stuck in television. cory: what we have seen in technology businesses of all kinds is we have seen the big companies are bigger than the number two players. intel is bigger than amd. facebook is bigger than other social media. they are fighting over peanuts because they don't get that network affect. you can see in the slowing user growth. fundamentally, they have to change their user growth number, and it has not happened. >> in all fairness, the user growth only moderated in the second half of this year. yes, instagram did slow it down, but ultimately where are the users growing? they are growing from the most affluent, dominant, tier-one markets in the world. where as facebook is growing from around the world and you can argue lower value users are the incremental users coming to the platform. if you on the most affluent users in the world, and if you can start to shift ad dollars over, you can move it in a meaningful way. caroline: now fast food giants have pla

>> option a, dollar cash price, would be fine. option e, where $10 cash price, $.20 surcharge for item added to credit card purchases would not be permissible. you would have to disclose in dollars and cents -- >> you would have to say $10.20. it is not regulating price, it is the same price, i can do that math. >> it is better viewed as speech regulation under the first president but -- you can see $10 surcharge the same as option b, you would have to say $10.20. option the which is $10.20, a discount for cash purposes because you're disclosing to the consumers the highest price they would have to pay in dollars and cents. >> your understanding of why it is speech regulation is it is the way you list prices, is that right? >> that is right. a law that simply requires merchants who made a particular representation that the price of this item is $1.95 and requires the merchant, that was all the merchant said, nothing about surcharges at all, requiring the merchant to honor that price when the consumer gets to the cash register is e

and aussie dollar.could see the euro find itself back testing that support level of 103, in coming weeks, in line with our baseline forecast the euro is heading towards parity this year. richard: good call. well, it's a call and we will make you stand by it. this is bloomberg. we will look ahead to the open at the bottom of the hour for hong kong and shanghai. ♪ haidi: this is "bloomberg markets asia." i'm haidi lun. mr. xiao talking about the chinese ability to control their overall debt. interesting line, doesn't exactly give you much confidence here. one of the things he's been saying, this is the minister of finance that china's generally controllable. that's what he's been saying here. that's what we've got at the moment, so far at least, heidi. haidi: that's right. because of course debt has been the key concern as far as these systemic issues go, a lot of investors and economists saying, this quite a danger to 41% of government debt. what is concerning is what is not being reported and that numbe

index. 200 on the below dollar index.oes this give us a preview of things to come when it comes to the lawson momentum -- loss in the momentum? that is one element of the story in terms of reversal of gains. the other reversal we have seen in the oil markets. we were 20% up after the agreement late last year and now goes losses have been given away. the monitoring committee of opec has been trying to check the holes of compliance. there -- pulse of compliance. they are excited about the level of conformity. 6% compliance from opec, going the aunt of the call of duty. from a non-opec perspective which includes russia, 64% compliance. they say don't worry about it, it will come up very fast and structural issues need to be worked through. complaints is happening but the work it -- market is not responding. time, in termses of the inventory data. here is what the president of opec said to say -- had to say. >> i think we're moving in the same direction from the discussions taking place yesterday. momentumo build on the that

it's not fighting dollar for dollar. it is winning new dollars that have been stuck in television. think what we have seen in technology businesses is the big companies are so much bigger than the number two players. intel is so much bigger than amd. google is so much bigger than any other search engine could dream to be. and they are fighting over peanuts because they do not get that network affect and you can see that in the slowing user growth that they can get around. they can throw as many ads to this user group that they can stand to and that may help with revenue in a small way, but they need to change the user growth and that has not happened. james: in fairness, the user growth was only moderated in the second half of this year. android was a slight hiccup. but where are the users growing? they are growing from the most affluent, dominant, tier one markets in the world. whereas facebook is growing from around the world and you can argue, lower value users, users coming to the platform. if that is the case, where you own the most affluent your -- , and if you world can star

let's talk about the dollar.mally when you enter a hiking cycle, you see the dollar strengthened. that has not happened this time. what will it take to move the dollar significantly? it will require a number of things. it will require a more hawkish stance coming out of the fed in terms of their statement today. also in subsequent weeks. also, for the dollar to be strong, another currency has to be week. that depends on other developments around the world. to be aboute politics, and we expect that to remain relatively negative at least on the medium-term here and for the dollar to gain against those currencies in the coming month. shery: what about the trajectory? how much steeper will the trajectory have to be for the dollar to see a pop? >> we are not really expecting too much of a change in that trajectory. we are expecting, as had in the case for the last couple of years, for the fed to telegraph its intentions very clearly and not depart significantly from the fact that they remain data dependent. that will

much does a stable dollars provide a tell to economy.f region given that we provide to economies in the gulf region? >> it would be helpful to this region to have a lightly stable dollar. every time the dollar strengthens, if you raise competitiveness from the nonoil sectors. governments have been putting emphasis on growth in the nonoil sectors. -- dubai is a largely nonoil economy. every strength in the dollar makes a dubai less repetitive when you're looking at tourism and wholesale trade. i think for this region it would be great to have a weaker dollar, it is not something that we see. gulf countries are going to have to adapt. we start to see this sort of pressure emerge when we look at the pmi survey, businesses are trying to compensate for the strong dollar by adjusting their prices. tracey: adaptation, diversification, this is a nice research note about fiscal adjustment in the gulf region. how happy are you with the adjustment that has taken place? >> i think it has been forced by circumstances, i think a very sharp drop in oil

dollars. affordable housing built under it, give financing you guys recognize that. late of impending federal cuts to hud or just generic structure i know in the development of affordable housing 21 every single bearable for the housing dollar to go to community development and housing here in the city this event and for the housing? do we want public investment affordable housing to be returned to affordable housing or do we want to use on private clinical campaigns? to meet users clear and colleagues i hope to have your support. >> thank you supervised cardenas. supervisor kim >> thank you president breed. i just want have my thoughts to this ordinance. this proposed ordinance and why i will be opposing it today. now i just want to start by saying there's nothing wrong with raising concerns about anyone spends their money could all of us here in the chamber do it and all of us work hard to expose the source of revenue which funds campaigns that we are opposed to and there's nothing wrong wit

got higher than 1.08. >> bounced back, the dollar. as a whole, the dollar up nearly a percent.orth keeping that in mind given that it's fallen for the quarter before this and for the month coming into it. >> as for gold prices, on the flip side of the u.s. dollar, they've been firmer. and they're down this morning. about a quarter of 1%. we'll be watching gold. headingicy uncertainties. up about 8% for the quarter. breaks that two quarter losing streak. having the best quarter since 2016. >> the main takeaway, we've seen profit taking when we have the days of negativity, and everyone gets worried, when you look at it for the quarter, a short-term time frame, up 5%. the month flat, depending on had index you look at. none of this is terrifying correction-type statistics. >> just a few percentage points away from record high stocks. >> still looks good. resilient at worst. >> fed speakers have been out in force this week. last night william dudley said interest rate hikes are appropriate to redutsz the risks of overheating. he argued that the federal funds rate remains unusually

dollar. rising interest rate also hurt it's share prices. i mention this because the dollar strength or weakness is generally coordinated with our interest rates. and remember, interest rates have come down. that's why williams decided it would be a good idea to look at general mills in the light of dollar index. take a look at this chart of general mills with the dollar index in blue underneath it. the dollar index does have some influence on general mills stock price, right? more specifically, the dollar index seems to predict general mills' action. the dollar is pushed forward 160 days, both when that's when williams found the relationship and it makers for a better forecasting tool. you can see the dollar, with the selloff in general mills that began in july. while a weak dollar is actually good news for this company, that 160 day-lag shows what happens to the stock. what's that allows the dollar index to anticipate the move of the stock. actually if general mills continues to lag 160 days behind the action of the green ballpark, william

whatever you call it, bollar, dollar.ning the rand customs union. how quickly can that happen? i think it is already 55:55:55 5:55 55:56 the currency is increasingly gaining usage in a multiple currency basket. i can see that shift taking place because the us dollar... but you have a very small number of bond notes. limited to the extent that i think less than 80 million has been put into circulation, equivalent to the african bank currencies. when you talk about the fact that you need your own currency in order to qualify to join the union, are you suggesting that there is enough in circulation to do that? no there isn't enough. in fact a deficit could be up as high as 900 million. so what, there need to be a lot more bond notes issued? not a lot more bond notes. they have to be bond notes equivalent to the currencies that have been put in place by the african banks, 200 million dollars and i want to reserve... so let's talk about it. they continue through with that programme but the ultimate aim is for the rand to becom

valued at 19 billion dollars.ve wealth creation not job a creation, that i think could be a problem for the overall economy just saying. >> you make a good point he we've been pointing o ultimate a lot of these all morning users growth slowing. >> yes note that coming out to be valued at 24-billion-dollar raising a few billion dollars here, if you start looking at it saying camera company, look at gopro what happened to them lockup stock ran up on hype once that lockup came out everybody started dumping shares everyone should be worried about. >> is it a gopro -- >> -- radio you -- >> stuart the point stuart, i think the point you are trying to make is that the real job growth comes from the small medium ipos, not these larger ones is that the -- >> my point is that this is the new high-tech economy if you compare to old industrial economy, industrial companies employ tens of thousands of people a technology company does not same wealth citation but a very different employment picture not ideologic right of doesn'

wink and the dollar find a bottom -- when can the dollar find a bottom?think the initial dollar weakness we have seen was a response to a dovish act. that was until yesterday where the story for the dollar has changed somewhat. even the concerns about trumps policy, possible policy delay as a result of not getting enough vote to repeal the obamacare. that would hold out the tax reforms. that has taken a hold on the reflation rate. what we have seen since yesterday has been -- much more narrow in nature. think ther-term, i story could be changing somewhat, but overall, we are the point where dollars will not be great, it will not be bad, it will be just good here it -- good. shery: you know it has happened with the dollar that has made the story compelling? it has come on the back of these gains of the euro. even before all of this political election happened in france or germany, where can we see the dollar euro had now? it is still stuck with india, 106, but i am wary about the risk, given we are stuck. we are seeing divergence in the concerns in europe.

dollar.ry: this was a surprise reaction, not what you would expect over a rate hike, given hikea dollar -- a dovish led the dollar to plunge. does this mean going through the year that dollar gains could be tapped? -- cap? klaus: it could be. i would not make much of it. it was dignified for the action that came, and the risk was seen widely due to the upside short of interest rates. there was no benching that that anybody said, i am getting cold feet about this rate increases. the by was completely in the other direction, so this was a short-term distraction. that is really all. i think the u.s. dollar against the yen is in place. other currencies, that is another place. another distraction we got with the pboc. what they said, they raised rates in the open market, not a benchmark that they did. is there anything more to the move them what stokes on -- what was on the headline? we are wondering whether these moves, these incremental moves of the pboc changes direction. klaus: at the margin,

dollars to a u.s. bank, letter brazil which is turned into brazilian currency to pay for the coffee. this is an example of bilateral trade, almost in effect trading tractors for coffee, but it takes both sides of the story to make the whole thing work. in multilateral trade, more than two countries are involved. in a simple example, u.s. tractors might go to brazil. the brazilian coffee to england, and english textiles to the u.s. foreign exchange, representing money, goes the other way. the balance of trade is accomplished on a triangular base. sometimes, the balance is disrupted when governments impose trade restrictions, as when certain industries request protections perhaps via a tarriff wall. protection from foreign competition. do u.s. workers lose their jobs when goods are imported? well, these people in foreign lands are labor competition, but they are also customers. for example, this electric, traveling crane. british workers may produce competitive goods, but parts of the crane were made in

that will help spur the dollar. the dollar has been lagging.en the result of the real yields, which mentioned on the previous segment, they were struggling a little bit and other gaining momentum and the dollar is going with it. jon: jeff rosenberg is still with us. earnings expected to be coming in at 0.3%. what kind of report the you check to see? jeff: i think it is a bit more focused on the wayside and -- wage side. there is the weather affect. a lot of that like a discounted. wages, less so. i think that could help to really move that forward. jon: it's three minutes away. it's always correlated to interest rates and real yield. also emerging markets. with the recent pressure on the commodity space, hires u.s. yields and lower commodities really hits emerging markets quite hard. some of this market, especially on the commodity side, will probably rally on a big number here. alix: what about the euro? if you have a central-bank convergence rather than divergence, what does that do? brad: the euro as above 106, even the slightest hand of a p

do think the dollar plays in -- we know the president is fixated on the dollar. carl: the dollar has been a factor in the past, but it was the stronger dollar leading janet yellen and companies to delay the onset of stronger tightening. we have seen some telestrate since the election, but more recently seems to be evening out. they are looking overall financial conditions, credit spreads, and equities in particular telling them maybe eyeing thed start punch bowl. tom: our many hours of coverage continues her. we now have to have a moment of silence for carl riccadonna. bring this up if you want one more time -- this is important, the fed decides -- how appropriate. orange is the color. scarlet: is this a bracket joke -- what is this? --: notre dame, princeton give us a briefing. i don't see princeton beating notre dame. help me here. neal: hope springs eternal. tom: that is how janet yellen will start the press covers. really, that is what janet yellen is going to say, hope springs eternal on wage growth. neal: i must say my knowledge of sports is profoundly clos

dollar. the euro got a bit of strength from mario drag i's tone. >> a strong euro but you have the strong dollar against the japanese yen. it's been tracking the yield. 115.35. the yen has weakened and the dollar strengthened. the pound moving to its own rhythm here at 1.2172. firmer against the dollar. dragi was interpreted as mildly hawkish. nothing major. he did signal and acknowledge the improvements on inflation in the global economy. >> absolutely. couple of things suggested that next year could start to see the end of easing in terms of moving the guidance of holding at lower rate. that was the thing that investors focused on. when we talk about the rising yields, clearly a big rise in yields in the u.s. we've now got the longer end of the curve. the ten-year and 30-year not seen since -- we saw the two-years -- the five years, highs not seen for five years. 2.6%. yet the euros ending the week on a stronger note. that's the weight of expectations. we priced in a hike. what we got yeste

dollar a >> dollar a day. >> after that, did you continue through your time? > i worked in tobacco fields until around the anal of 14 -- age of 14 or 15 but i was and doctor tobacco high her than -- always knew the people that farmers ng in, the big coming in. because of that, they gave big groceries out k to the car. enjoyed working at colonial grocery store. that was a big achievement for me. you said you were tall for your age. did you play sports? it was one of the greatest ccolades that i had was -- in california. >> when did you begin your public service? my public service in 1982. coached basketball for six university. i was going into private business and had to put in five run for ore i could office. it just so happened we -- a was created that the had filed a lawsuit in a t because it was rural area and there was no african-american in the district. for the ght i was up challenge. i felt like i had grew up in a that where -- >> right behind you is your for florida senate 2000, is that right? >> yes. >> what were you thinking when you said will work f

dollar.donald manages to shrink the current account deficit or get a sir place, could we be looking structural weakness starts to reverse itself? quite possible. i don't think he will see a trade surplus. we run a number of scenarios on this. we think you will see a tightening of the trade deficit, but you will not see a surplus. the real consideration is the fiscal and tax relief, fiscal spending and tax relief, so if the trillion dollar infrastructure plan comes through, we expect a 1.6 trillion dollar impact $201.8 trillion impact, and that will strengthen the dollar no doubt. there will be dealt up against that, but we do think the fiscal impact will outweigh the debt. we don't think we will see dramatic dollar strengthening, but will see incremental dollar strengthening over the next les ts say 4-5 years. theef: the other thing market is watching is how the elections in europe will be unfolding. france and focus. how worried are you that this is going to go along the same lines we have s

dollar dropping. if you look at dollar at the 1213, u.s. futures also pointing to a lower start, and what i want to show you is u.s. 10-year yield. it dropped some five basis points, giving up one basis point on friday. joining us is alexander dryden, global markets strategist at j.p. morgan asset management. great to have you on the program. what do you see as most significant? isn't it the fact that donald trump has a real setback with health care, which means the markets are more cautious about what he can get done? alexander: i don't think the health care bill matters much to investors other than company or stock-specific discussions, but this is going to the two fiscal frustration starting to set into the market. the idea that that fiscal package that has been driving the market higher since the presidential election, we're not going to see any details for some time to come. it is going to be much harder to pass through congress than we thought. francine: no details, alex, because the president will make sure that what he wants to get

it is true no one in the house is paying attention to the dollar but the dollars 25% higher, merging markets haven't melted down, as they moved from thinking about this as a paper exercise, and economics exercise about getting what they want which is better performing they immerse themselves in these experiences. i believe the going in proposition is always 50/50 and that is true this year. you need to get other forces lined up to get it over and that is not happening. >> you mentioned the efforts before 1986 after many years of public education, you had a tag line that that you will get rid of tax shelters as a result. what is the peril to prepare the ground for this tax reform and what is the tagline or how can this be done without public education? >> it is a serious issue. i don't think there has been the same concerted effort from both sides. there has been a superb effort on the income tax, national components. and to substitute for that, that is a different dynamic. my reading of the elements, haven't had comprehensive reform at all, come tax reform, we are in a world that the

dollars here is a rounding on everything you do. these are big deals and he's going to make sure we get good deals. >> speaking of negotiator in chief, a few problems with health care in the last 24 hours. what can we learn from the debacle of health care that will help you as you head into tax reform? >> well, if it passes today it won't be a debacle. [laughter] >> health care and tax reform are two different things. >> you can learn a lot. >> it is but i will say health care is a very, very complicated issue. >> and tax reform isn't? >> in a way it's a lot simpler, it really is because the goals of tax reform, okay, which are about creating a middle income tax cut, creating personal tax simplification and making u.s. businesses competitive, okay, where we have a very high business tax rate and worldwide income, you know, we are able to take the tax code and redesign things and i think there is very, very strong support. i think in health care, it's much, much more complicated issue where you start out with obamacare which had all

richard: there is two dollars in the markets, euro-dollar, overly that -- brought e.m.y correlate very well against -- until the mid of 2016 and this correlation break, headed in other directions. you have the dollar weaker against emerging markets because global growth, global data, macro trends are very strong at the dollar stronger against the majors because the economic outlook is better and the risks are lower, the risk to the u.k. higher and the risk to your are higher. you have these two dollars in the market and that is how we think about it. tom: i will steal that from you for tomorrow. asian currencies, is that a way to play this, adxy goes up and i you -- up in value? richard: the answer in the short-term is yes, that is the way to play it. what can change it, if there is a borderomentum behind adjustment tax or in terms of the tax overhaul in the united states, depending on how that lays out over quarter one and quarter to, you may see less certainty over emerging markets but for now, because that is left to august at the earliest, or maybe 2018, the market