and, for those who care about such things, it means we are forecast to meet our 3% eu stability and growth breath, mr deputy speaker, for my congratulatory letter from jean—claude junker! laughter now, before you crack open the prosecco, the bad news was not talked about in the budget. it's all about the planned austerity over the next few years. now, here's the graph. this is what is meant to happen to spending on public services. this is spending per head, and it dips several percent from 2015 to 2021. the big gamble is whether those cuts can really be delivered. it's whether we'll stomach them when borrowing is no longer seen as a crisis. what do you think? well, that is the broad brush. but there's a funny thing about budgets —

we are forecast to meet our 3% eu stability and growth pact target this year for the first time in almost a decade. but i won't hold my breath, mr deputy speaker, for my congratulatory letter from jean—claude junker! laughter now, before you crack open the prosecco, the bad news was not talked about in the budget. it's all about the planned austerity over the next few years. now, here's the graph. this is what is meant to happen to spending on public services. this is spending per head, and it dips several percent from 2015 to 2021. the big gamble is whether those cuts can really be delivered. it's whether we'll stomach them when borrowing is no longer seen as a crisis. what do you think? well, that is the broad brush. but there's a funny thing about budgets — they can become overwhelmed by an argument over one specific measure or other. it happens a lot, and it seems to be happening more quickly than it used to. and this budget is an example. nick watt reports. we haven't quite heard the first cuckoo, but spring will soon be upon us. as the buds slowly sprout, it's time to prepare for fu

reshuffle, which analysts say has unnerved investors, who see pravin gordhan as an emblem of stability. the eu's meat exports after being hit by a scandal over rotten produce. a number of countries have slapped restrictions on brazilian imports. the country has seen its daily meat exports plunge by 19%. the company that built a controversial pipeline under native american tribal land says it is now full of oil and will be in operation soon. construction of the stretch of pipeline in north dakota was delayed by protests and legal action. it was completed after president trump signed an executive order within days of taking office in january. the uk's brexit minister has downplayed suggestions the country will pay an bill of around $60 billion dollars for leaving the eu. david davis says while britain will meet its international obligations, he doesn't think that sort of money will change hands. the cost of the divorce! that's not the last we will hear about that. in fa ct we the last we will hear about that. in fact we will talk about that in the paper review in a moment. so a change of scenery f

growth pact meet our 3% eu be stability and growth pa ct target meet our 3% eu be stability and growthjunker. borrowing is then forecast to be 2.996 in borrowing is then forecast to be 2.9% in 17-19 borrowing is then forecast to be 2.9% in 17—19 and then to fall. 21-22 2.9% in 17—19 and then to fall. 21—22 will be the lowest level in two decades. the obr expect cyclically adjusted public sector net borrowing to be 6.9% in 2020—21. giving us a #23rs target in the new fiscal rules, maintaining ourfiscal resilience over the period. the obr's forecast of lower near—term borrowing, coupled with recent strength in the economy, be means lower debt across the period. the obr now forecast that is debt will rise to 86.6% this year before peaking at 88.8% next year. 1.4% points lower than forecast in the autumn. it then falls in 2018—19, for the first time since 2001—2, to 88.5%, and then continues to decline to 86.9% in 1920, 83% in 20-21 and 79.8% in 21-22. mr to 86.9% in 1920, 83% in 20-21 and 79.8% in 21—22. mr deputy speaker, at the autumn statement, i set out our plan to return the politic

have a conversation about this president not about the eu or financial regulation or trade but about this as a peace project. this is a stability project. i think tomorrow's meeting might be, in some ways the most important foreign policy meeting that this president has had in his two months in the oval office. >> it's very interesting. with donald trump retreating from the world stage, certainly you know promoting hard power and not soft power, people in europe are starting to talk about angela merkel as the leader of the free world at the moment. that america has seated that

the idea the turkish economy would move toward eventual eu membership that was a driver of investment and growth. stabilizationeconomic policy. more in line with what the eu would want to see. this that with the netherlands the signs the political relationship between turkey and the european union is kind of moving further apart, disintegrating, i think begs the question whether the story is still relevant. if not, what is going to anchor turkey's economic policy? are we going to see the sort of reforms, what direction is turkey's economic policy going to take? that is a source of uncertainty. we are not talking about portfolio flows. we are talking about real investment into what is potentially one of the biggest economies in the region. and whether that is actually something that is going to be supported going forward, or investors are going to take a step back. maybe we don't want to be as bullish. >> you mentioned investors there. excellent point what is happening with turkey has been happening more broadly with emerging markets. we have seen a stunning rally thanks to the dove hike from the fed. the softe

eu membership. it was going towards growth and stabilization of economic policy and going in line with what the eu wouldto say. this goes back to the netherlands and the sign that turkey and the european union -- the political relationship between turkey and the european union is disintegrating. isn't that story now relevant and what is going to anchor turkey's economic policy going forward? are we going to see growth or reforms and what direction is policy goingomic to take? we are talking about portfolio flows or ethics flows, we are talking about real investment into what is potentially one of the biggest economies in the region. whether that is something that -- or ifto be investors are going to take a step back and say we are not going to be as bullish as we work for. -- as we were before. tracey: you made the point earlier that a lot of what has been happening with turkey as been happening more broadly with emerging markets. we've seen a stunning rally thanks to the dovish hike from the fed, a stronger dollar, a rebound in oil prices. >> according to the data, it could give further, we have seen t

no deal if britain doesn't get a trade deal with the rest of the eu, it could potentially be disastrous for germany's financial stability think remain as feel as though they are on shaky ground, keeping their head down for more than one reason. i think we all accept the result of brexit, but nobody voted for britain to be worse off. we didn't vote for broke brexit, we didn't vote for the economy to go off a cliff edge and it's not noble for people to be asking serious questions about what this deal is going to look like and what it will mean forjobs and prosperity and the culture of this country. i thought it was interesting, nicky morgan's tone. she did a tour of the tv studios today. she has been fears in her opposition to brexit, but leaving her language softened, she said let's end this phoney war and be more united. but here are some tests we think the british people will expect. one of the big things will be immigration and that will be a contentious issue. the government had been thin lipped about what they are saying about immigration and david davies last night, on question time actually hinted that immigration

sad day for everybody in europe, including everybody in these islands, and an eu which for years has brought us peace, stabilityrity and prosperity. we are turning the clock back a0 years and i am glad that the minister reminded his own front benches devolution existed now in a way it didn't exist a0 years ago. it has been suggested the government is looking at henry viii clauses to take this through. so much for parliamentary sovereignty. scotland's aspirations for a voice also seem to be given their henry viii treatment with a rough wooing clearly taking place right now. i'd like to commend the secretary of state for ignoring some of the more over excitable demands from parts of the brexit press and some of his backbenchers, and to confirm as he has today that he will incorporate into british law some of the eu jewels in the crown such as the habitats directive, the working time directive, the green renewable energy directive, which we can all agree upon. although he will know there is a fork in the road. the government will either have to keep those provisions in domestic legislations, in which case they wil

moving towards membership, that was a big driver of business and growth and stabilization of economic policy. is one wonders what the eu want to see. this move spec with the -- back with the netherlands. the relationship is moving further apart. that begs the question of whether or not you can -- whether that is relevant. what will anchor turkey's economic policy going forward, are we going to see the same masked friendly reforms? what direction is turkey's economic policy going to take? that is the source of uncertainty for investors who are looking at a longer-term investment horizon. we are not talking about portfolios, we're talking about real investment into what is potentially one of the biggest economies in the region. whether that is something that is going to be supported or whether investors will step back and say we are not sure about the direction of policy here, and maybe we do not want to be as bullish as we were. mentioned investors there. dana made the excellent point earlier that a lot of what has been happening with turkey has been happening more broadly with emerging markets. we have seen a stunning

going totitutions are emerge in the eu banking to better stability and profitability?t going to comment on deutsche bank. there is honor among thieves in the banking sector. i wouldn't have described this in the way you do. i think the market will find a new level for this stock and the fact that they and their advisors are confident enough to launch an issue on this scale i think i regard as reasonably positive. the key will be how they perform afterwards and whether they do manage to get their costs back down and away the market is confident in. tom: we will continue this discussion with sir howard. we have a number of guests today on this deutsche bank transaction. coming up tomorrow, conversation with the oecd's katherine marion and some good times to catch up on the struggle for economic growth. catherine mann on mergers and acquisitions. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloombergs surveillance. i'm francine lacqua in london. ahead of his first full budget this week chancellor philip foron's set aside money brexit. he warned the budget would not include any spending commit

collected and shared, for you to be able to oversee that can provide market stability and be assured of that, even though the eusn't have oversight in london? >> the current situation is already a situation where clearing is conducted. for example, in the u.s. we have a situation where we accept the activities and services of u.s. ccp's in the eu, looking at how we nowtem now works, have the experience, one of the problems we're seeing is a problem about do we have sufficient information on the risk that the third country ccp's my creating in the eu and the essential element of equivalents will only work if the major economies across the world are quiet. the eu is one of the few regions that applies equivalents and that has the implication that they need to register and are supervised by multiple regulators while third country ccp's have the benefit when they're doing business in the eu that they can mainly rely on their home regulator. let's turn our attention to regulation. we have a new administration in the usa that's promising a bonfire to regulation. and changing the landscape. if there are structural cha

the eu had for years has brought us peace, security, stability and prosperity.n frontbenchers that devolution exists in a way it did 40 years ago. scotland's aspirations for a voice have also been given the henry viii treatment. can i ask the minister will he tell us where the legislative consent will be required, queer responsibility will fall from brussels to edinburgh, hardly touching the sides on the way, and who does he mean by democratically elected representatives in section 4.2? it strikes me that the government has pushed the big red button marked brexit with their fingers crossed and very little idea of what comes next. let me say this to the honourable gentleman. he lost his henry viii clause, he thinks the public at large will think that some executive from the middle ages. what we re executive from the middle ages. what were talking about here is the use of procedure that has been used down the last century and over which this house has complete control. complete control. so that's the first thing. the second thing is, i have been in joint committee

, quote, unstoppable force, adding that the strength and stability of all foreign nations will become even more important as the uk leaves the eu. the meeting kicks offer a big week for the uk starting on the scottish parliament with the referendum. >>> let's have a quick look at u.s. futures. they're trading, after we saw that big collapse of the health care vote. s&p off by 15 points, the dow jones, 90, and the nasdaq, 31. so far, the dow owns up by 1.5%. i want to show you some of the safe haven assets, we're seeing gold at a one-month high. 1257. dollar/yen sinking, 110.23. close to that 111 handle. and the a little buying with the yield slightly falling. >>> president trump took to twitter on sunday blaming the frooem caucus to failing to support the bill to replace obamacare. the white house is looking ahead to tackle new issues like tax reform and a new budget. nbc's tracie potts joins us once again from washington. tracie, good to see you, how big a flop, quote/unquote is this? >> well, this is huge. it was the first big thing that the president tried to tackle, and it failed. but he's moving on. there is still a bit of

. >> to answer your original he question about should the eu unravel, like i say we have an immediate and direct interest in the stabilityof our closest neighbors. what i would like to see for european union in orderly way to return powers to the nation states. if they are prepared to do that in our case we would not voted to leave. unfortunately i don't see any sign of that. they're risking storing up a much bigger explosion. for example on the issue of immigration, britain is feeling its way towards a moderate, sensible balanced proposal we'll continue to have migrant from the e.u. coming to work but won't pay them benefits. almost every electorate in europe would insist on that. if -- charles: thank you very much, congratulations. president trump's travel moratorium is about to go into effect. we'll have major warn about refugees already here. we'll have major details after this. ♪ [vo] quickbooks introduces rodney. he has a new business teaching lessons. rodney wanted to know how his business was doing... ...so he got quickbooks. it organizes all his accounts, so he can see his bottom line. ahhh...that's a profit. kn

eu council president. former premier tusk is unpopular because of his criticism of poland's domestic policies. warsaw was in an isolated position. angela merkel and others came out in support of tusk. >> because of continuity and stabilityere is no doubt in reelecting donald tusk as president of the european council. i do not see by one country would be against him is all other countries support him. >> a qualified majority would have been enough, but donald tusk was reelected with 27 21 vote. poland's defeat is seen as an investment for the country's foreign-policy. so far, it is unclear if poland will make good on their threats and retaliate very brent: are brussels' bureau chief is at the summit tonight in brussels. : saying they will not sign the -- poland says they will not sign the final communique. >> they did retaliate. it will not sign the final declaration of the 28. there will not be an official eu summit declaration. you ask, what does that mean. there will be a declaration, but the declaration of the presidency. remember who is the president of the eu council, it is donald tusk. there is a certain irony to it. the last time this happened was in 1985. we have to keep in mind, amid all of this squabbling betw

stability is a fascinating story there. thank you. later on in the show we will talk about the impact of the turkey and eu relations.ave a specialist joining us in less than 20 minutes. shery: counting down to the fed decision. stephen davis tells us what investors should pack for the upcoming hike. this is bloomberg. ♪ tracy: asian stocks are following u.s. equities lower today before an expected interest rate hike by the federal reserve. let's bring in the ceo and founder of javelin wealth management. we know at this point in time a rate hike is a certainty. so we want to look for the second order effects. let's talk about the dollar. normally when you enter a hiking cycle, you see the dollar strengthened. that has not happened this time. what will it take to move the dollar significantly? it will require a number of things. it will require a more hawkish stance coming out of the fed in terms of their statement today. also in subsequent weeks. also, for the dollar to be strong, another currency has to be week. that depends on other developments around the world. to be aboute politics, and we expect that to remain

eu will prepare the final document for the rules. and the french and german elections will be taking place this year testing the stability of the block. and a final brexit deal is expected by late 2018. britain should officially divorce from the european union bay may 2019. that's if everything goes according to plan. willem marx is in brussels. you heard the doubts being cast on the timeline by clegg. what does everyone in brussels think? how likely is this to be done in two years? >> since i've been here, not a single person has said that the two-year timeline is realistic. they seem to concur with what nick clegg was saying there. today we will see a quick response, it seems, from donald tusk, the president of the european council. he will talk at about 1:45, about 15 minutes after theresa may gives her official statement on article 50. and then later over the course of the afternoon we'll hear from several other european leaders, including gejean-claude juncker. those are likely to be quick, simple responses to acknowledge the receipt of that letter. people will be looking to see the contents of that letter from theresa may, we'r

stabilized the world since world war ii. we sort of fort ggot. we've taken that for granted. nafta, the eu. tpp. these are big systems that create a more ruled-based world and we -- if also we forget how many millions of people have they taken out of poverty. do these systems need fixing? they do. th need modernizing. this attitude of chuck it, don't fix it is really dangerous. >> i listen to you talk about the systems and stabilization in place that president trump is fighting about. and i think of a steve bannon guy saying deconstruction of the administrative state. the explicit sort of goal of the chief strategist of the white house now is to rip it. so what is the first -- for somebody like you who is a critic of that philosophy, what can you do other than sit back and watch? >> i think what you are seeing already are the administration reverting to the meme that is that's a little bit about what happened last night. >> you think or was it just -- >> whether it will or not, i don't know but you've got so many more adults now surrounding trump. whether it's the new secretary of defense, wheth

eu will be a thorny point? >> obstructionist is the wrong word, it is a two-part negotiation. britain is the one leaving. the europeans goal is to maintain the stabilitynity of the region. they do not want to do anything like caesarritain's outside the club then it was inside, doing that would encourage others to exit. the goal of europe is desk until it for a language yesterday but they control the clock and the agenda. they do not want to give the u.k. too much. vonnie: that is what i mean by a instruction is. to the u.k. leaving, not making it easy. the first part of that will be the decision over what will be paid to the eu. how will they resolved that? >> a hard discussion that last four months. some analysis that the first job will be to work out a framework to come up with that number. theresa may gave a nod that there will have to be conversation about that. she says britain has right, assets on the european books that britain will claim a share of. this fee or bill that has been talked about, will be a difficult first part of the conversation. the eu does have leverage over the conversation, until you have worked out the bill, we will not tal

stabilized somewhat. ya against the euro. >> 1.0550. against the pound, 1.2161. >> philip hammond is poised to deliver the uk's first full budget since britain voted to leave the eu in june of last year. in his address he is expected to announce the creation of a brexit war chest. up to 60 billion pounds will be poured into the fund, which is designed to ability as a buffer against potential economic shocks as the uk withdraws from the european union. steve is still at westminster. all these measures that the government is taking to try to ensure this smooth brexit scenario. >> doing absolutely everything they can. but we don't know what negotiations will look like. let's get a view on the economic ramifications. we have the chief economist from the cbi. let's talk about this war chest. 27 billion pound figure, which i keep hearing about. where does this money come from? >> one thing that we've seen is better growth in the economy, so that means that the obr is likely to forecast better growth for this year and that's translating into tax receipts, particularly from corporations. that is adding to 10 billion pounds per year that the chancellor will have to play w

after link consistent implementation of the stability -- and acrosst countries remains crucial to ensure confidence in the eu'samework. we are now at your disposal for questions. >> mr. president, in january you theined for criteria for sustained adjustment part of inflation/ could you give us some progress report about how feel you take you are in fulfilling each of those? that has also been a debate about introducing it is more change to the forward guidance ever boring -- removing the clause that says you are ready to lower the rate if needed. if i'm not mistaken, could you explain to us why there has been a debate on this passage? thank you. you the substance of the discussion we had at the castle. i will also answer your points. built on three blocks. the first one is the acknowledgment of success. namely monetary policy has been successful. let me be just a few numbers. of why we say that and how we measure it, this success. since 2015 real gdp growth has 0.3 andady, between 0.6% quarter on quarter. in economic sentiment index february is the highest since 2011. the pmi component -- composite outlook ind

stability. in a recent uk—wide survey, 43% of 11—16 year—olds said that brexit made them feel anxious, angry, or upset. 22% said that leaving the euanyone to really understand whether it is a good thing or a bad thing. i think younger people are actually better than adults at listening, debating, taking on issues, understanding each other‘s point of view. definitely. , i'm really for brexit. i think it is a good idea for the people of britain to get there ideas out there and to get there ideas of freedom and choice out there. we want to be free of this organisation. i am pretty apprehensive. i know that britain's public have decided to do this and i respect that. but that doesn't change how i feel. i voted for brexit because i am a believer. i think we can take advantage of this. overall i feel completely confused. the opinions of under—18s didn't count in the referendum, but in schools across the uk, brexit‘s proving to be an emotive subject. tim muffett, bbc news. some interesting thoughts from those young people. the key message is uncertainty. we still don't know what is going to happen and what it will mean. especially in the

have a conversation about this president not about the eu or financial regulation or trade but about this as a peace project. this is a stabilityrrow's meeting might be, in some ways the most important foreign policy meeting that this president has had in his two months in the oval office. >> it's very interesting. with donald trump retreating from the world stage, certainly you know promoting hard power and not soft power, people in europe are starting to talk about angela merkel as the leader of the free world at the moment. that america has seated that position to the leader of germany is an extraordinary moment where we are right now. >> the center of his immigration defense he talked about what is happening in germany and said it to tucker look what is happening in germany. when angela merkel was named "time" person of the year two times two years ago he said she is ruining germany the way she is opening the door to refuges coming into the country. >> the dutch elections yesterday. the fact that the far right did not prevail. it's the first sign of cresting we have seen in the populace nationalist tied in europe. the curre