eastern followed by mario draghi's news conference, 45 minutes later. carolin roth joins us with what to watch. no change expected. but what do you expect from the tone of mr. draghi? >> good morning to you. no change expected when it comes to monetary policy, but when it comes to the tone, mario draghi will have to walk very, very fine tightrope between the dovish and hawkish expectations. when it comes to growth numbers, growth in europe has been strong. sentiment is the highest in six years, unemployment is falling to eight. and inflation has been picking up. when it comes to headline inflation, it's at the 2% level, even though core inflation is at 0.9%. they have to acknowledge that sentiment, and the rest of the economic picture is looking brighter. the euro/dollar ahead of that meeting, higher to the tune of 0.2%. but we are expecting dollar strength to come back ahead of the jobs number tomorrow. again, monetary policy expected to remain unchanged. and the ecb will likely stay on the sidelines when it comes to monetary policy for the rest of the

up until now, mario draghi said the ecb has not discussed this. not call itld tapering but what else can you call it when they reduce their monthly bond purchases by 25%. buy 80nth, they will billion euros of bonds as they have for months and months going back a couple of years. next month, they will only by 60 billion euros of bonds. from now on until at least the end of the year, that's about the level they will look at. you are definitely seeing that reaction in markets with yields up a little bit. traders are buying the euro today. if you don't call that tapering, you've got to think of another word for it. it is a reduction in ecb intervention. mark: great job, thank you. let's continue the conversation. of's talk to the pimco head portfolio management in germany and he joins us from newport beach, california. great to have you here. continuing with the tapering -- mariow does mariota draghi begin to communicate to the ecb -- that the ecb will truly wind down its qe program? morning, how and when -- i think the sequencing for the exit is firs

mario draghi news conference. bloomberg customers can follow all of that. ovide smart analysis as draghi delivers all of the news. plus, we've got some great economists coming up on this program to analyze what we can expect from the ecb. this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: price pressure. the ecb meeting is likely to be how close is mario draghi to taking the first steps on his journey to normalization? and crude crunch. shale ditches its assets for more than 7 billion dollars while record u.s. stockpiles send oil sliding. jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon speaks with francine lacqua later today in an exclusive interview. the conversation will focus on president trump's first hundred and globalt, banking. that is it proper: 40 5 p.m. u.k. time. you don't want to miss this. welcome to bloomberg markets i am matt miller in frankfurt. a rainy frankfurt standing in front of the ecb. also at 12:45 u.k. time. mario draghi will send out his andcy moves or lack thereof then 45 minutes later, we are going to have the press conference. you can watch jamie dimon at 12: -- 12:45 while y

alix: what does mario draghi do with that? >> the one thing people are talking about is changing the balance of risk description in the ecb statement. at the moment, they say interest rates may be all lower at the present rate. to me, that is a valid thing to say. they have had persistent underlying forecast. i think the risk is still skewed to underlying inflation lower so that wording should be kept. that is one thing he could change if he wanted to appease the folks in germany. david: putting it simply, when do they run out of bonds to buy giving some of the issuance restrictions? how soon is that deadline coming up? >> it is difficult to measure, but we still have some way to go before we get that deadline and what we believe will happen once the political crowd began to clear and people focus on the fundamental improvement that has a happening in the eurozone. dr. draw play will say we -- draghi may even take it one step further and provide guidance how to taper it down to. zero.to it will not put the t under much distres

what did mario draghi say that jumped out to you? >> the euro spike was on the basis -- there are certain amounts given to the banking sector. we are able to maybe start something which is talked about. the curve location of that was something that surprised the high side. vonnie: what happens when that begins? draghi did keep up with the possibility that that could change. will the european economy be able to stand that? the france and netherlands -- >> the fact is we are still talking about greece and the dutch elections and the italian elections. the bank of the apache has not .een sold anytime soon talking about more money into the european sector. it does seem somewhat strange mario draghi chose today to talk about withdrawing that support for the european banking sector. at the moment, if we see a pickup, that brings about a better financial condition. entire euros as the inflation numbers suggest. results are byhe september, draghi would communicate. not in september but the beginning of 2018. where is your calendar when it co

we spoke about the ecb and what mario draghi had to say.german curve steeper than the u.s. curve? saw that it has been put on the short end of the curve. do in the current, fragile political environment in europe, you have to find some hedges. the ideal hedges would be sure bunds.ch bonds, long you have an appetite for the short end of the yield curve in germany. we have seen that globally. also, the japanese investor. we are also the risking -- helping tohich is steepen the yield curve in germany. matt: i want to take a look at risk though which is a function -- risk go which is a function on the bloomberg. guesses can enter their on a number of data points. i have pulled up the nonfarm payroll. you can graft how the expectations have developed over time. this goes back to the beginning of february. the whisper number is almost 230,000 jobs to be added today. what do you expect for later today on the nonfarm payroll number? >> it is hard to have a firm conviction. in the adp report. i do not expect to be disappointed this afternoon. i expe

what are we looking out of mario draghi, then?att: well, we are not looking for any change in policy today, at least according to the economists surveyed by bloomberg news. no policy change expected, but we could get a change in the ecb's inflation forecast. we are looking at headline inflation in europe of 2%, but the core number is less than 1%. it will be interesting to see how much draghi raises the ecb's inflation forecast. currently they are looking at 1.3% for 2017. we were expecting 1.7% to 1.8%. that will be the major piece of news out of the ecb. then of course, the speech everyone will be hanging on every word, considering the policies in the fed right now and the ecb. manus: will they move to potentially close out the top rhetoric gap. let's cross over to brussels. the gathering of the eu. it looks like the trigger of article 50 might be a couple of days behind schedule, but what is the feeling on the ground with regards to these negotiations? is there any potential for a delay? caroline: the feeling on the ground is t

so, we're anxiously awaiting what mario draghi has to say. ahead of that, you're ror dollar at 1.0558, a tad higher. the dollar was strong in the trading session yesterday on the back of the blowout adp report setting us up for another strong jobs report out of the u.s. tomorrow and that widely anticipated next rate hike by the fed next week. we're seeing the pound under pressure against the u.s. dollar. it was at a seven-week low yesterday after the budget. >> speaking of that budget, let's recap. the uk chancellor, philip hammond is sticking to his deficit reduction plan. he announced cuts to the tax-free dividend allowance and hikes to national insurance rate for the self-employed. the obr warned of tougher challenges for the british economy after brexit downgrading gdp forecasts from 2018 to 2020 despite signs of stronger than expected growth for this year. steve spoke to the communities and local governments secretary after the address and asked if the obr's forecasts were just guesswork given the uncertainty around brexit. >> what is im

we will hear from mario draghi later on. we're also hoping to have a little bit of a better picture in terms of inflation and recovery for the eurozone. matt miller is outside ecb what are we expecting from the european central bank? matt: as far as policy, we expecting no change today. almost every economist that bloomberg news surveyed said that mario draghi isn't going to change the rate now come a but he may have set himself up well in december for this policy divergence between the ecb and the fed. starting in april, he's going to reduce bond purchases from the size of 80 billion euros down to 60 billion euros a month. that is going to continue through the end of the year. the interesting thing will be to see but the ecb thinks about inflation. we've seen euro area inflation at 2%, the headline number. the core number is down below 1%. it is on a downward trajectory since it peaked back in 2001. what is the ecb going to say about inflation? we are expecting them to raise their forecast for the year. right now they see 1

this man, european central bank chief mario draghi says inflation across the eurozone is still too lowbank has decided to keep the rate at 0%. it means that things -- banks across the block have to pay to park surplus cash with the ecb. while it is on target, mario draghi says that inflationary pressures are not enough to justify increasing rates. critics say it is time to go slow on t stimus,ut the bank is not taking its foot off the pedal. here's what he has to say. >> we have acknowledged the progress on the growth road, on the recovery road, and we are confident that as this will proceed, this will close the liberal market conditions, and we will start to see that wage grow, which is the linchpin of a self sustained growth increase in inflation. brent: al qaeda terror and political instability still fresh in the mind. also a concern for travel bookers. andrea meets business owners struggling to make ends meet. >> this is a popular ivory coast destination resort. a year ago, al qaeda and islamic terrorists launched an attack here, killing 19 people. many of the victims were at the h

>> it could happen, but mario draghi was asked that question. his answer was circumspect.hink that is where the situation is at the moment. they could do that. the rate could be raised, but i have a great difficulty accepting that. that would be like the fed doing things with its balance sheet long before it raises rates. is it possible? yes. is it likely? the answer is no. jonathan: how far is the bund market behind the curve? 48 basis points? which one is anchoring which? is the bund market anchoring treasuries? >> treasuries are the anchor for the world. i don't believe that the ecb would want to raise rates while doing qe by any means. they have learned their lesson over recent years. they have tightened too soon in the past. there are still a lot of output gaps there. i think things are in control in europe and the states, in that the power of an individual rate increase a quarter-point relative to where 10 year yields are now is very significant, so i have a concern that the supply element, labor and whatnot, keeps up and keeps inflation -- a true goldilocks scenario

mario draghi struck an optimistic town. are monetary policy has been successful.dline inflation has increased, largely on account of food prices and inflation. underlying inflation pressures continue to remain subdued. the ongoing economic expansion will continue to farm and brought in from april 2017. the net asset purchases are at aded to continue monthly pace until the end of december, 2017 or beyond if necessary. you probably, like everybody else, listen to every new wants. i want to get your review in terms of the buyout, the shift. i'm not to the hawks? a nod to the hawks? >> we have something new he didn't say before. for aquite noticeable double like draghi. he said the market has found some support on that. mix, thealso, in the economic data we have been having. there is also political news in that story. end of the last year, when we had the italian referendum, the market was very concerned about european politics. opinion polln even beat, they may the fed in the first round. all opinion polls have suggested he cannot win the presidency. that is the diff

but imagine i'm mario draghi, and all of a sudden, i'm the biggest bid all the time! 's something worth? whatever mario wants to pay. that's what we're going to talk about after the break. ♪ >>> i'm scott wapner. coming up today on "the halftime report" from here at the new york stock exchange, two of the best investors of our time in a disagreement over the market. carl icahn concerned, david tepper says buy. we debate that. plus, tepper talking about several big names today, including apple, snap, allergan and should you buy those stocks? and the reporter behind a nirp and explosive report that's forcing caterpillar shares lower today. "the halftime report" noon eastern. guys, carl, we'll see you in just a few. >> nice to have you in the house, scott. thanks. >>> let's get to rick santelli in the meantime, get "the santelli exchange." rick? >> thanks, carl. you know, let's continue our topic of value. value's one of those intangibles. you know, you go buy something at the store that costs 99 cents, but on the way out, if somebody wants one and offers you $3, it's wor

orphanides: to tell you the truth, to the extent mario draghi can completely avoid it, i think he would completely avoid it. and did. i have to mention two things, we note, this is very clear, from some circles in europe, in particular, those worried about the german economy overheating, there are girls for the ecb -- calls for the ecb to start tapering, potentially start raising rates and winding the commission will measures. this is part of the debate. if we look at the performance of the economy overall, the ecb, if anything, is still too tight in its policy. let me remind you that the latest readings of core inflation, which is the underlying measure we should be focusing on, not oil prices. this has been stuck below 1%. this is much lower than what the ecb should have been delivering. by any measure, ecb monetary policy is still too tight, they need the accommodation and to continue to do qe well into next year. if they can avoid giving any signals about 20 tapering will start, they will avoid it until september. vonnie: the euro strengthening since the press conference. not a lot

will mario draghi stand strong on stimulus?w they will bring you live coverage of that conference. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: you are watching bloomberg. mark: this is the global business report. here is what we are following today. are struggling to rebound despite agreements from opec and non-opec members to cut production. vonnie: a drop in fourth-quarter earnings. the ceo says they are not ready to put the company up for sale. mark: a quick look at the take of quantitative easing around the world. european central bank started the bond buying program six years after the u.s. -- did it work or did they wait too long? russia saudi arabia and are presenting a united front. they both say the agreement between opec and non-opec members will work. still, they'd knowledge that inventories are not falling as quickly as they expected. earnings as growth from delivering online orders flattens. the cheek executive, frank appel, says they are not shopping itself. >> there is no need to do something like the u.k. and europe. it will b

depending on what you described, what mario draghi's tone was. >> quite the opposite. monetary policy side could see 115 by the end of this year. we can talk about political risks, but on the ecb's side, the baby steps we were just talking about, he is actually a lot more hawkish in the second half of the year. 2018 could be the year when we go back from 60 down to zero in terms of purchases. if you look at what happened in 20 13, let's take a page from the fed. is trying to avoid that widening spread. it's unavoidable to some extent. thing we aree watching in asia is dollar-yen. i want to show you the longs and the shorts we have seen. such a choppy, choppy trade here. the longsen kind of and the shorts piling up, and now we're seeing stays when it comes to the shorts on dollar-yen. are the stars aligning? how important is 115? was the feder, that passing what would happen based on the fiscal side. the market has been disappointed. and now the feds have passed back the buck. i was think it will be 120 by te end of the year. in the meantime, we have the risks around th

mario draghi is not just looking at german inflation.oking at german across the entire euro area. a key measure of euro area confidence hit a pre-financial crisis high. that was out today, but inflation was really the main focus so let us take a quick look at #2116 on the bloomberg because it shows you exactly what is happening and why mario himhi has got his heel set not to move. cpi is up to over 2% for the euro area, but look at the core. half that. it is at 1.1%. that purple line jump is mostly due to energy prices. services, the blue line, moving higher as well. that is why mario draghi is not going to move. finally, the european elections. markhas a big question hanging over the euro area, another reason mario draghi is going to resist the german's call for another rate hike. kathleen, thank you. that is continue our conversation we had earlier on the fed. the rate hike is almost certain. one out of 23 primary dealers saying the fed will wait until may. a former philly fed president told us janet yellen and her team should just get

we have mario draghi talking later. no movement on rates there.on pretty much at its target. what gives?kathleen thet's go back to bloomberg. you're looking at a blue line up to 2%. that is the ecb target. the white line, core inflation. mario draghi says the headline jump has so much to do with energy, the ecb cannot afford to wait. will he sound a little more hawkish. the german officials have already signaled, maybe giving some forward guidance on bond buying. not expected yet, but these are some of the nuances. bottom line, expecting to hold the line and resist the german call to raise rates now and key policy study was he wake for the next meeting, i suppose. rishaad: kathleen hays there in new york. up next, backing the latest inflation numbers from china. factory gate prices jumping the most in eight years. that is aiming -- grabbing headlines. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: this is bloomberg markets asia. i am haidi lun in sydney. rishaad: getting back to the inflation numbers, the cpi and ppi out of china. got prices surging. vincentoined no

kathleen, no change from mario draghi so why did we see that bounce in the euro? as so still delivering a message that was somewhat hawkish and very ish and-- was so hawk somewhat dovish at the same time. sides for thedown economy especially because of global practices. the ecb will continue quantitative easing until at least the end of 2017. no move in rates until the quantitative easing is starting to end. mario draghi in the press conference said we changed our latest statement and report because it there was such a sense of urgency about the economy. very important that mario draghi said he is not convinced that this headline rise in asian -- in inflation in the euro area. you will see two lines, the blue line is headline laois and it is just over 2% so it is just above the ecb target. , out fore line drips food and energy, it is core inflation and it is at 0.9%. mario draghi look at that answer is what he said. mainly aeflected strong increase in annual energy, in unprocessed food price inflation. with no signs yet of a convincing out for trends and underlying

we are expecting more pressure on mario draghi due to inflation tapering and all those issues.you expect the price pressures to be sustained? have seen a pickup in inflation numbers come in particular in germany, where growth obviously is stronger than other parts of the world. of course in europe as well, but we do not expect mario draghi to announce any sort of tapering already at this stage. he already mentioned of course from next month onward that they are cutting the monthly to 60ses from 80 billion billion, but will continue to do so until the end of the year. we would need to see more data to confirm that inflation is on track so that later this year the ecb might announce some further measurements to cut down the monthly purchases and what we are seeing today. those a cpi numbers, headline and core cpi, a focus for the ecb. thank you for joining us. coming up on the show, the man in charge of reining in china's debt says things are generally under control. more on his partial vote of confidence next. this is bloomberg. ♪ yousef: china's new finance minister has been ad

the current qe program was preceded by a bond buying plan ind to mario draghi's fed 2012.angement dubbed out right monetary transactions was never tested. you can read more about quantitative easing on the bloomberg. had to bloomberg.com for more stories. ♪ vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets." earlier, we told you of kkr's newest fund not to be outdone, apollo global management is said to be seeking $20 billion. let's bring in jason kelly. was aught 13.9 massive amount of money. jason: it's amazing, the amount of money looking for returns. private equity has been a destination for a long time. over the last five years, we've seen pretty consistently more and more money going to private equity. we seem to be reaching a new peak in private equity fund raising. more than $500 billion raised last year. what is notable is this idea int we've seen an uptick mega funds. year those were there last . vonnie: super return was extremely crowded this year. david rubenstein told me last week it was the most enthusiasm he had seen at super return in his 20 year history. managers likethe

he did -- what mario draghi does is important. in the pasteviously few days. it is hard to know when he begins to taper. from marioper comes draghi, and i would assume it would come before kuroda, then the bull market certainly in those countries can come to an e nd united states as well. 2.6% target for the treasury. we are not there yet. if that is succeeded, i think that would be because girardi and kuroda are moving away from their own particular maneuvers. >> you referred to janet yellen as a modern day goldilocks yesterday. i have been reading that story with my daughter. at the end of the story, goldilocks is games with her life and the bears get their porridge. how does this and --end? >> it depends on your timeframe. i think in the long run, it ends badly. central banks have created credit at an enormous rate. let's go back to 1971, 1 trillion dollars worth of credit, now $6,520 worth of credit. that is an enormous growth rate. say thing in china were even more. at four create credit times as much as you create one unit of gdp, then ultimately, the si

how will mario draghi navigate? how many questions will be get on mario then -- maria the pen?nflation for the year -- has not moved in the last three months. not facing a behind the curve rampant inflation scenario. but that against the backdrop of the upcoming political events and holland and if france, let alone the triggering of article 50 would seem unlikely that mario draghi will reverse course with policy at this meeting. get through the political events and potentially announced it if the economy improves. it will be september when tapering of the currency -- billion euro a month policy starts and commented place of the -- francine: how do you see politics playing out? -- german yields already in negative territory to protect yourself against eventuality? simon: tried to head to these events, in the run-up, the hedges on the political events come very expensive. recent history, all the events we saw last year have burned investors from anyone who put hedges on lost money as markets did. with the exception of cable around the brexit vote. rather than discreetly says thes

the reuters story, saying an unnamed source at the central bank had said the comments from mario draghieting had been overinterpreted in terms of how quickly we could see an end to the loose policy. so we saw yields in europe react to the down side yesterday. the euro came off with it. that just helped stocks. it's continuing today. the euro is down about 0.3%. no real move for the dollar against the yen and pound. >> the big story of the quarter is the dollar really went lower. it's near the lowest level since back in november is that a tell for the overall trump/reflation trade? it was one of the first assets to jump higher after the election with yields, sending stocks higher. will stocks follow suit or are they beating to a different drum? >> the brot ebroader dollar indn 1% for the month. 2.2% for the quarter. joining us from london is simon derek, chief currency strategist at bny mellon. let's talk about the short-term of the dollar before we move on to that medium term outlook. particularly yesterday we did see a bounce back, the dollar a bit stronger. euro weaker. what was drivi

. >> a very important meeting for mario draghi. interest rates are at record lows. bank is buying 60 billion euros worth of bonds per month in an effort to stimulate the eurozone. now for the first time since 2013 inflation has reached the bank's target of 2%. the question is whether that figure will mean the end of rate hikes. thatthink it's quite clear this has been mainly driven by food and energy. time, core inflation, all the components without food and energy, remain unchanged at very low levels. just 1% for the past few months. there are no signs that this is going to accelerate anytime soon at a high pace. i think there is no incentive for the ecb to change their policy. downside andn the there is a political timetable in europe over the next few months. it's not worth changing policy right now. genie: oil prices have been slumping. >> they fell to their lowest in a year. crude stockpiles in the united the ninthe for straight week. the australian and canadian dollar have also fallen as they fear the rise of a new oversupply. the international benchmark for o

in allis interesting this because it happens just before mario draghi leaves the ecb. leaves 2019. the ecb will be doing more policy easing as the bank of england did following the brexit itself. if they have the euro bonds, it would make their life a lot easier. they may not want war, but politically it may not be popular, but economically it makes an awful lot of sense. anna: the euro bomb would regulate more fiscal institute -- integration. --e you read that customer that? david: you can't have it within the currency bloc itself. there is only one currency. you have a situation where you the the eurozone comprising 19 countries, they should form a closer union, and you have currencies around the, the satellite economies and that seems to come into it. then you have the u.k. further out. you are closely attached. you are trading an awful lot still with the rest of the eu. anna: that is what the u.k. hopes. david: logically that should happen, but politically it may not. we're in a serious time when issues cleric. -- flare up. every single time that jean-claude triche

then back to where we were in 2012, where as you recall, the ecb president mario draghi promised to do whatever it takes to calm markets -- that is what i see it as the biggest concern, .olitical contagion the euro area economy is still very weak and vulnerable and on a very gradual recovery path. up --an i just follow mario draghi talks in the last press conference about the need for structural reform and he says it's not happening in the way he wants it to happen. the concern surrounding populism of hard economic reform process is not happening. can the europeans blame the british in any part for this? >> to a small extent, but the populism that we see on the continent is not a result just of brexit. it is basically the result of growing inequalities, of big migrations of refugees coming to europe in recent years. in particular it is the issue of social inequality that i deal is the main culprit. -- itrse that is true makes existing mainstream parties much more cautious in pushing for further reforms. euro countries need further reforms. the we should at the success stories -- spain

mario draghi will speak to reporters following the evening. policy makers at the federal reserve will be watching closely and they'll be meeting the following week to decide interest rates among other matters. at the start of each week we ask specialists to share their perspective of what's ahead. we hear from the senior economists. exports from china jumped almost 8% in january. for the upcoming february data he believes shipments will continue to expand in line way recovering global economy. >> translator: january and february figures tend to be volatile because of the effects of the lunar new year holiday but o one thing is certain. chinese exports have been gathering momentum since the second half of last year. china is the world's factory. external demand similar proving and that is the main reason for the recovery in exports. >>> strong export data could invite further criticism from donald trump.p. the trade imbalance between the two countrieses is deeply ingrained and chinese factories are just providing what americans want. >> transla

some of the tone out of europe today, mario draghi giving hope to the idea that european banks mightu.s. banks, with some of that recovery. and au have the oil price lot of excitement in the oil sector, the u.s. now the low cost producer globally. and i think that is one of the reasons why you see some excitement. scarlet: even as individuals are turning a little more bearish on equities. joe: you mentioned you like the opportunity overseas more them the u.s., what do you like? europe,: i am going to i have been in japan. actually with japan is very different. the story is i cannot say excitement in the economy, but there are real changes with companies, companies increasing their shareholder orientation and increasingly conducting board minis -- meetings in english i'm a they are talking about what they will do with cash flow -- english. and they are talking about what they will do with cash flow. it is a rare and exciting new thing to hear from japanese businesses. in europe, i think it is less -- you know, the companies are better known and as i think we environmentthis qe with ra

mario draghi gives a rate decision and his assessment of the european economy.lation sustainable? exclusive interview with jamie dimon. will talk to

mario draghi did not expect to take the q.e.st year and will be a reality for us the beginning of april. we in our research said the buying volumes of c.p.p. will come down but don't think the credit market is focused on it enough and is one of the risks we face in europe in credit markets is risk premiums on corporate bonds that have been so squeezed tight through rates. -- draghi's >> what is draghi seeing in the unanimous fed in let's get going. torsten: they're pleased they're doing so well and it's much better than the reputation and for them the issue becomes if the u.s. is doing better then the dollar should be going up because interest rate differentials are wider in europe and should be pushing the euro down which should be helping the european recovery. for him it's about the implications for the euro and potentially the european declining. >> if the you're is doing better and the fed is raising does it put pressure on draghi to come off his q.e.? barnaby: it puts on pressure indefinitely but the e.c.b. will look at it

matt: does the outcome in the netherlands, coupled with the fed decision, make mario draghi's path towardlization easier? olivier: the dutch election, i am not sure it factors in. but you are right that if you compare with early last year, when the fed was postponing the china, therelated to ecb had to cut rates further, to take additional measures, and japan also. i think it is more comforting for the ecb as well as for the bank of japan when the fed is gradually tightening. they remove some pressure on the rates.cluding on the for yourier, thank you time. thanks for joining matt. olivier garnier from socgen. ireland will stay with us. let's talk about markets. here is nejra cehic with the movers. this --hen do you think whether you think the risk on attitude is going to continue or not, that is what we are seeing today, with equities rallying in europe. we are also seeing it in the commodities space, with gains and industrial metals. i want to start with the miners, leading gains in an industry group on the stoxx 600, it also individually. i focused on two mid-cap miners, focused on gol

quick update on mario draghi giving his press conference.ued. saying we're going to keep to our plan to reduce from 80 billion euros monthly down to 60 billion. but if things go badly, we stand ready to increase those purchases. not a lot of talk about the possibility of things getting better. he did say the cyclical recovery may be gaining momentum. the staff has very marginally upped the forecast for 2017 and 2018 by a tenth. it looks like they're keeping the inflation rate for 2017 -- they upped by 0.4. still, the bottom line here is the european central bank, despite some german opposition, sticking to its guns and remaining really with a wide-open policy, guys, for the rest of the year, despite what's happening here in the united states. >> i don't know if his ears were burning yesterday. tepper talked about him a lot. i like that though. i love central bankers. everything that's going well over there is because of the policies of the central bank. what do we do without them, steve? anything that's going well is because they're doing th

how does mario draghi do with that?the reality is, each federal reserve ecb, bank of england, bank of japan, each one operates within an environment and each may share the strategy, but they in in a different position their cyclical journey. when the u.s. is now ready to tighten, or to reduce a little bit accommodation, europe may , we will see something that may look to you as diversion and. the mechanism that recognizes the apparent diversions is the exchange rate. if the u.s. is tightening and interest rates are going up, then we should not be surprised they transcend in world markets. it will be good news for europe and will encourage competitiveness of europe in the markets. for mario draghi and janet yellen, it is a win-win situation. matt: that would set up a problem between the trump administration and the fed but we will discuss that during the break. i have got to toss it back. thank you so much. trade, in aning of interview with bloomberg news, peter navarro saying nothing will be renegotiate nafta will be re

mario draghi has to be very conscientious of the situation. he doesn't like temper tantrum because they are fragile but they've had their market. >> here in the united states it's about confidence they are stable. >> you think they're getting better. >> i think absolutely right. if you look what the markets have done since the president was elected. it's interesting to me because they've signaled it's going to pick up the pace of interest increases. the market is hitting new highs almost every day. that's a signal of confidence in trump and also a signal of relief that fancies the economy getting better. maria: good to see you. thanks so much. we look at the ecb results in the next two hours likely. wild winds causing chaos. semi trucks getting blown over from the forest. michigan basketball teams fighting off the runway. all the details of this chaos. a 9-1-1 outage. by at&t customers were unable to make emergency calls. back in a minute. maria: welcome back. at&t says service is restored after outage has customers in 14 states yesterday. che

his mario draghi going to budge? >> 2018 is as soon as you will see it. as soon as he keeps pounding the table about. let's go to the bloomberg now. very powerful lines. blue line, inflation of about 2%, at the ecb's target. 0.29%. energy market at he is telling the germans, cool it. everyone says a little more hawkish. maybe give a forward guided tweak, but no signal. a pretty tame ecb meeting. unless he sounds hawkish, that could get the markets going. >> thank you. companies saying falling sales. china retaliates from a missile system. ♪ >> a beautiful look at singapore this morning. sun is out there at the lion city. i am it yvonne man in hong kong. betty: and i am betty liu in new york. you are watching "daybreak: asia ," let's get the first word news with paul allen in sydney. >> the european union says the chinese president must back up his support for free trade and globalization with concrete action. he advanced protectionism, saying it was like locking oneself in a dark room. bloomberg they hope beijing will adopt a stronger leadership role on s

mario draghi says there were "no limits" to what he would do.mployment rate only slowly receding. interest rates below zero should reduce borrowing costs, driving demand for loans. my cash will more go under the mattress or safe instead. triggering a bank run. negative rates can squeeze bank profits, making them less likely to lend three years into the experiment, it is still too early to proclaim success. so far, the costs have been manageable. you can read more about negative rates on the bloomberg. head to bloomberg.com for more stories. mark: the bank of russia signaling a new easing cycle may be in sight. move. a surprise the suggestion last month was there wouldn't be any further rate cuts in the first half. what has changed since then? the cut wasight, unexpected. 11 of 41 analysts expected there will be using. there were enough reasons to cut the rates. the got the inflation pulled out -- they got the inflation p ull down and economic activity recovering. mark: what was the significance of a 25 basis point cut? it was the first time the

. >> mario draghi sounded cautiously optimistic.the more hawkish members of the council is talking about ok, we want to start to actually before qe ends, which is not the european commission's intention, and --re has been pushed back pushback from other council members. the talk between the hawks and -- doves, which we will have we have had for some time, will continue in earnest now. mark: this was meant to be dull, fed,t it, relative to the but it's now front and center of everyone's lips. where are we when it comes to the boe and the possible next move in rates? has she put down her marker where others could, should, may follow, or not? >> we have two dissenters, which doesn't necessarily mean a change in policy. the interesting thing to know about ford's is she is only on the committee for three more forbesand then she is -- is that she is only on the committee for three more months and then she is leaving. the wage data is much weaker than markets were expecting. if you and just wage increases for inflation, we are actually wag

they have not been keen on it either come but i think mario draghi will not want to rock the boat withections coming inthis year, german election september or october, so policy on hold. >> do the dutch elections matter to you? everybody is talking about france, germany, but this is happening in 48 hours. what could happen? what could this lead to? it matters in that it is still a signpost as to what is happening in terms of of aism, in terms rebellion against them there elite and the international push very little chance of forming a government coming because the netherlands political system is fragmented who would unite together, so it is no big threat to markets, but nevertheless let as no if populism is still alive and making progress. the dutch prime minister called these elections the quarterfinal when it comes to testing the appetite elsewhere. with that said, are you seeing increasing appetite? are valuations looking attractive to you? europe is fertile ground for stock pickers. the overall macro and political negatives and trends, and yet a lot of companies have actually their

nonevent in terms of policy action, but carefully watched in terms of rhetoric from president mario draghir he softens his qt approach. are mounting.s next week not only is it the fed meeting, but a debt ceiling in the united states that needs to be renewed, and the dutch elections, and all of that will make for quite a potentially surprising outcome, particularly under the dutch election. it could set the stage for greater volatility with the french election and april, and after that the german one as well, so i think the dutch election could be critical in terms of generating sentiment or so. those bond yields have already then moving in those key metrics. thanks a lot. that is tim fox. turkeys president sparks anger and germany over accusations of nazi practices. what it means for the relations between two heavyweight countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ yousef: you are watching "bloomberg markets: middle east" . i am yousef gamal el-din in dubai. i am david ingress and hong kong. i'm looking at a risk on session. it has gotten better. as it stands, quite a few important themes to look out f

confirmed the earlier reading, headline, 2% core, which is what matters, 2.9% and that is why mario draghis not bullish on the prospect of a change in policy. do investors agree? that is the big question. julie: it is the big question. i am impressed that your memorizing the list of the central banks making decisions this week. we are seeing a pullback at the moment that is deepening a little bit. we are now seeing the s&p off by .5% as the dow falls by 31 points and the nasdaq goes into the red. we see health care continuing to weigh on the major averages. we talked earlier about proposed cuts as part of donald trump's budget for medical research and funding and that seems to be weighing on the health care group in particular. on the plus side, we have homebuilders rising. the s&p homebuilding index is at the highest since may of 2007 after u.s. housing stocks climbed to a four-month high. building estimates coming in low does not seem to be slowing down the rally. technology also rallying, at least if you look at oracle. it shares up 7% after the company reported earnings and shares -- s

but to mario draghi's bringing up inflation at vacations. we have seen a pretty monster move over the past couple of weeks. it is now the night straight session we are seeing -- ninth straight session with an increase in yield. 21 basis points over the past couple of weeks. even as we have seen those yields climb, value stocks have not gone along with them. we will see a breakdown of this relationship. this is a rate ratio versus the world's growth index. in this particular case we are seeing going into this year the value underperforming growth. typically value benefits when we see yields go higher. in fact some analysts are saying strategists are saying the value rally has gone too far. bernstein and deutsche bank have downgraded value shares to neutral. vonnie: thank you for that rundown. dimonorgan chase's jamie says -- as part of an inclusive interview with bloomberg's francine lacqua at the jpmorgan 2017 global markets conference in paris. francine asked jamie for the president trouble get regulations right. >> i hear people say we had

. >> mario draghi out with a decision tomorrow. it's all about political risks.ou wonder what would take the euro out of the range. we have not seen parity in more than two decades now. >> despite that upcoming election, and the dutch election is very, very soon. it's this time next week, march 15th. then the french election. it's hard to see the euro rally. in economic terms i believe the euro -- this coming from that side of the atlantic, the euro parity seems impossible to reach. but we're 5%, 6% away. >> the other risk i would mention is i talked to commerce secretary wilbur ross yesterday, i said we got a trade number, showing imports surging thanks to the u.s. buying iphones from china and other imports which is what the administration is trying to do the opposite of. increase exports, they need to get rid of that trade deficit and a weaker u.s. dollar. i asked him if that was standing in the way, he had a savvy political answer that it's not that the dollar is too strong, it's that other currencies are probably weaker than they should be. >> which is a cle

also the news on some of the others, euro, mario draghi didn't say easing would end, but he brought expectationsen easing on the euro side could end. and yesterday the bank of england meeting, a clear line in the statement suggesting inflation is picking up and we may lean towards the hike. the vote was 8-1, so it wasn't close, but one person voting for the hike. a british hike would be for the wrong reasons, it's because the currency has fallen and is creating inflation that weak. expect taations of where it's heading has softened. >> two themes i would add globally, which is dictating market direction. number one, we had a dutch election where there were fear mongering going into it about the populist geert wilders getting a lot of vote. he didn't. it went the other way. he was anti-euro and anti-immigration. so euro dodged a bullet there in terms of facing the unknown. euro got a boost from the common currency. and the other factor is the u.s. fiscal policy monetary authorities around the world, andclude the ecb and the boe are in a different mood. they're not in their crisis era super extrao

and also, the other big asset to watch today will be the euro come in the wake of mario draghi's decisiono not make a move on interest-rate but to raise forecasts for inflation and for growth, and talking about risks being more balanced. the euro is spiking, of versus the u.s. dollar. day. still up .4% on the david? david: julie hyman with the market update. coming up, we will talk to dr. j mario molina, who says the gop health care plan could lead to soaring premiums. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: this is "bloomberg markets: trump's first 100 days," with a focus on politics and policy. let's get "first word" news. markup it has more from the newsroom. has theesident trump authority to fill more than 1000 jobs in the federal bureaucracy, but most of them rmb or filled with former president obama's appointees. several told bloomberg that they turn down jobs because the administration's lobbying ban. the white house says there is no shortage of candidates. the environmental protection agency chief scott pruitt says he doesn't believe carbon dioxide is up primary contributor to climate change.

mario draghi, you know, is a dove. he doesn't want to move until he absolutely has to. but, you know, that's beginning to really worry germany. they're seeing the rise in inflation and they want to see action from the ecb. we have a meeting this week. i doubt whether we'll see anything, but increasing calls are to start acting. what about the u.s. dollar? it had a phenomenal run with u.s. equities. do you add on to those positions as well given that we might be getting more than two or three hikes this year from the fed? if they're already hiking in march, that leaves plenty room for more hikes the rest of the year? >> it does. the dollar paused for breath a bit, but the noise is very clear. the last week or so we had clear messages from rate setters culminating in janet yellen's comments on friday when she said she felt that rate rise will be appropriate. assuming that things evolved as they expect. so i think we'll see a rate rise next week. i think we'll probably see a couple more this year. so that is going to drive the dollar higher. the dollar is paused for breath

inflation slowing to make mario draghi's life easier. taylor?lor: the warning on brexit from donald tusk. he told reporters that the process of the u.k. leaving the eu will be difficult and might be confrontational. while he says there is no such thing as a brexit bill, the u.k. will have to pay. tusk: all of the liabilities they have taken as a member state. : the u.k. has rejected that they would pay $65 million to leave theu. thousand and senate intelligence committees are investigating alleged contacts between the trump administration and the russian government. flynn was forced out after misleading vice president michael pence. china has expressed optimism about the summit. aesident trump is predicting difficult discussion, tweeting the u.s. can no longer have massive trade deficits and job losses, which he blames on the chinese. increasing momentum in the world's second largest economy. china's manufacturing gauge rose to the highest level in five years. day,l news, 24 hours a powered by 20 600 journalists and analysts, in 120 countries, i

if i were married drug he, i would look at the exchange rate. , iif i were mario draghi would look at. the dollar hasn't really moved the last two or three months. if i were married of draghi or chair yellen -- mariota or chair yellen, the response from the dollar appears to be much more muted than it has in previous shifts. francine: how should we look at politics in europe? i'm thinking about france. also possible germany. not only the yields, but currency. mike: there are two big elections, the dutch one and france and germany. pence, the risk is a le victory. the german one is a bit more interesting. you can argue that either candidate could be relatively good news for europe. , merkel ismerkel pro-european. then you think about what happened to the euro. i think the reason the euro we could quite easily argue either way on the euro. that could be quite deflationary. that could be pro-real yield. lefthe would be much more than we see at the moment. if you have the re-introduction of the unions, would not be seen as germany looking more inward and embracing globalization? mike: the

and mario draghi is one of the most dovish members of any central bank out there.self is getting a little anxious. the pmi figures help that story for sure. to the extent we move through france elections without any hiccups, the euro will trend higher. alix: the story of the last year was about fed chair janet yellen. now it is about president trump. will the story for 2017 be about -- willaghi was to mark be about mario draghi? >> yes. it will be more about that. they still have a lot of issues on the domestic side. -- thereng pressures is a lot going on in the eurozone still. there is a lot of skepticism if things will end well there. but with the data doing what it is doing, a lot will depend on inflation and ultimately that is where they are looking. wage growth is the key component that is missing right now. commodities have helped the headline numbers. bank ofhi in the england are willing to look through that until they see the real inflation come through. thank you. coming up on this program, it is the story in the wilderness of the hong kong equity market.