paul christopher with wells fargo investment institute. >>> stocks were steady today. despite the ooents overseas. technology stocks sthaped a three-day losing streak and the federal reserve released the minutes of its last meeting. more on that in a second. first, the closing numbers. dow jones industrial arc one po. nasdaq rose 40 and the s&p 500 added three. crude prices fel reports that opec's oil exports rose in june. and on a separate report that russia would not support a further extension of ongoing production cuts. >> well, the oil market will allegation be watching developments secto in a statement today, volvo said all, all of its new models it produces will be electric or hybrid starting in 2019. the ceo had made a similar statement in may. according to reuters, the decision makes volvo the fir au date to phase out conventional car engines. volvo is owned by a chinese company. >>> auto production is carefully watched by the manufacturing sector and today, the commerce department reported that new orders for factory goods fell .8% in may, marking the second

paul christopher, you're sticking with us.lion in energy assets, will join us with his oil outlook as well as earnings outlook which kicks off next friday. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: investors are waiting hence from mario draghi on tapering at tomorrow's policy meeting. the announcement is expected in either september october. the ecb is setting on a plan that could unwind qe as early as the fall. the phillips curve seems to be broken. only when the link strengt strengthening -- joining us now is max. what is the base case? scott talk about qe only. let's talk about when we can get a rate hike. see histhe ecb wants to domestic inflation. ofhave a new measure domestic created inflation. it is trending downward. slack is being reduced in the economy. the it of inflation that the ecb wants to see is not strengthening yet. this will come next year and this means they cannot tighten policy before they actually start seeing it. jonathan: do you think they are preoccupied with the demand side of the question and not focusing on w

we also like health care >> thank you both, gentlemen barry banister and paul christopher. >> as we headbreak, take a look at shares of blue apron going bad this morning the company sinking again on news amazon plans toin introduce its own meal kit service first, she's raised more money than any female founder in the country. the ceo of rent the runway is going to join us on set next with more on silicon valley and tech in general's sexual harassment problems. ♪ there's nothing more important than your health. so if you're on medicare or will be soon, you may want more than parts a and b here's why. medicare only covers about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. you might want to consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like any medicare supplement insurance plan, these help pick up some of what medicare doesn't pay. and, these plans let you choose any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. you could stay with the doctor or specialist you trust... or go with someone new. you're not stuck in a ne

frankly we would till be buying the growth stocks there. >> paul christopher, thank you. >> back to the>>> all right. great. >>> microsoft could soon announce thousands of job cuts, what the strategy is if indeed that does happen plus after months of wait it for it to happen, the ten-year yield did -- that is next. thank you so much. thank you! so we're a go? yes! we got a yes! what does that mean for purchasing? purchase. let's do this. got it. book the flights! hai! si! si! ya! ya! ya! what does that mean for us? we can get stuff. what's it mean for shipping? ship the goods. you're a go! you got the green light. that means go! oh, yeah. start saying yes to your company's best ideas. we're gonna hit our launch date! (scream) thank you! goodbye! let us help with money and know-how, so you can get business done. american express open. flexshares etfs are built around the way investors think. done. with objectives like building capital for the future, managing portfolio risk and liquidity and generating income. that's real etf innovation. flexshares. built by investors, for investors. bef

let's bring in paul christopher., good to have you back good morning. >> thank you. >> ethan, a viewer wrote in this morning and said yellen couldn't be hawkish if she tried. could that sum it up morning. >> we had just gotten the third week core inflation meantime in a row. she sounded like she had about seen the data. and sounded positive today i thought big thing was they'll need some real data. >> paul, are you on board with that >> yes there is some question about the inflation camp that should give the fed all the cover they need to continue to make rates we think december is the more likely time. >> ethan, what do you think about the intraplay of the balance sheetd reduction and the rate hikes obviously they're saying, we don't want you to think the balance is taking the place of rate hikes the market seems to feel you can call it normalization if you're draining off the balance sheet and maybe it gives you room in terms of future rate hikes how does that play out in the market >> i think the fed is hoping it'

. >> burns mckinney, paul christopher, thank you very much don, you're a very successful businessman. you understand the point that i'm trying to make i'm not trying to minimize what's going on. health care, things like that, they're very important but if you as a businessman were too afraid to invest in anything because of some political headline, you would have never invested in anything in your entire career. >> that's correct. because it's always something coming up at you it's always another issue. so that's why there's a separation between business and politics government -- >> so how do you tune it out to be successful? >> you look through the sound. you turn down the volume and look through the noise >> except on this show >> exactly >> what's interesting is i was thinking to your point that sometimes we overworry about these things there have been nuclear threats for a long time. and when the soviets got the bomb, america got scared the chinese got it you know the pakistanis have it who knows who else has nuclear capability that we might not like this guy in north korea is of

wells fargo investment institute head global market strategist paul christopher, thanks for joining uscharacterize the backdrop in terms of earnings and its impact on stocks. >> you were talking about it, the economy is moving steadily, doesn't have much acceleration power but the momentum is still there 21/2% generating earnings, 6.4% year on year for this corner, earnings better for the couple quarters, despite the miss by amazon, we think tech will lead the way this quarter up 11%. >> do you take offense to what happened to the dollar. we have seen it go down 6% in the first quarter of the year. it helps technology stocks, half of their earnings come from overseas but amazon said they actually had head wind the negatively impacted. how you see the dollar in the second half into next year on earnings? >> interesting question. we get a bit from our clients these days. most of that moving the dollar, $0.06 has come since the end of june fueled by speculation that monetary policies around the world will come together and move in a normalization direction taking interest rate out of nega

christopher ray's independence. people who did not win in this meeting are donald trump junior, paul manafort, jared kushner. one of them, senator ben sass says he is a republican, never been a super big trump supporter, but he said it should be americans deciding american elections. so they will still be a cloud, still an issue, and now it sounds like there will be a public or some form of hearing from these people close to president trump in the not too distance future. if chuck grassley gets his way. someone asked will you have to subpoena them, and he said i'm going to get them, it won't come to that. >> kelly o'donnell in that white house press briefing room. the president tweeted this morning, let me read it to you my son donald did a good job last night. he was open, transparent, are and innocent. this is the greatest witch hunt in political history, sad. kelly, christopher ray said he does not believe this is a witch hunt. >> that really undercuts one of the president's frequent criticisms. so the selection of the president to be the next fbi director, certainly has taken away that as one of the tool

they hope to confirm christopher wray before lawmakers leave for the recess. >> and house speaker paula new balance sneaker factory. he's will take place in a roundtable discussion. >> and that does it for us on this edition of "first look." "morning joe" starts right now. >> good morning and welcome to "morning joe" on this thursday, jum july 20th. today is the six-month mark of the trump presidency. and in true trump fashion, he just gave an interview that's taking all the attention away from his agenda. with us, mike barnicle, senior political analyst, mark halperin, column iist christa sanderson and michael schmidt. joe, we'll get to that in just a moment but first the news that senator john mccain has been diagnosed with brain cancer. the senator

paul manafort, they've been invited to testify for an open session. that should happen on wednesday. >>> the nomination to head the fbi now moves to the senate floor. approving christopher ray as the next fbi director. ray would replace james comey who was abruptly middle of the russia investigation. >>> coming up, a driver crashes into mourners gathered for a >>> a fairfax county handy man assaulting at at least three children. he used his job to access his victims and now faces several charges. according to police, he he assaulted the children while he was doing work in their home. the youngest victim was just 4 years old. neighbors say they're concerned because palma lives in an area with a lot of children. >> she's shocking and you know, it scares me to think that people are letting somebody like that into their home, with the expectation that it's somebody they trust, and they're supposed to be safe. >> fairfax police believe there could be even more victims. >>> d.c. police are looking for sixteens that escaped from an international robotics institution. two of the teens have been spotted crosses over the border to canada. the teens are from today, but their mento

paul manafort before the judiciary committee. that is significant. thank you, manu raju. >>> let's talk more about the testimony we just heard on the hill from christopher wray. again the president's pick to replace fired fbi director james comey. i want to bring in gloria and our chief national security correspondent, jim scuitto. jim, wray seemed to say everything lawmakers wanted to hear. we heard a lot of affirmation, good answer, in response to questions including whether he believes donald trump jr. should have gone to the fbi about his russian contact. >> well, it's interesting. perhaps a more nuanced answer on that. on the big picture things, he was very clear cut. he said he was not asked, for instance, for a loyalty pledge by the president, that, of course, referencing back to what james comey said that he was. he said if he was given an illegal order, he would not obey that order. he said he might even resign under those circumstances. all those answers that really senators wanted to hear from both parties, as well as a definitive statement from him that russia is an adversary and on that point somewhat contradicting the president or going mu

people like donald trump jr., jared kushner, and paul manafort, who i anticipate will be facing significant questions in the weeks and months ahead. christopher nominee to be the fbi director, testified before the senate judiciary committee, vowing to maintain independence in any tab of investigation, including the ongoing investigation into the russia probe. julia: kevin cirilli on capitol hill, thank you for that. there have been interesting comments over the last few days. they are important questions. let's check the headlines, first word news. mark: as kevin cirilli mentioned, the russian investigation is coming up in today's fbi hearing for the nominee to see -- succeed robert mueller. the presidents pick said he would not look politics get in the way, signaling the fbi's work will be german only by "the facts, the law, and the of partial pursuit of justice." christopher wray is selected for the job following the president's firing of james comey. the president has called it a hoax and witchhunt, the ongoing investigation by the fbi and robert mueller, the former bureau director, selected in may to oversee the probewr. a -- probe. wray

before this very important confirmation hearing for christopher wray, the president's picked to be the next fbi chief gets underway. he would play paul central role in mueller's investigation, the special counsel investigation of all things trump and russia. i want your reaction to the first line in axe yoes. the focus is on the son. the colleagues are watching the son-in-law. what do you think? >> i think that's right. these things happen. you either come together or come apart as a staff, as a family even. it looks like they're coming apart. they're turning on each other. somebody leaked that information, i'm glad they did but somebody did and it wasn't a democrat. somebody inside that circle. >> it could have been anybody. >> we don't know. >> they're turning on each other. and mr. kushner now was in that meeting. we are talking about donald junior who hosted the meeting. mr. kushner a critical aid was also in that meeting. this is another time when jared kushner was involved with russians and did not disclose it originally p. he's got an enormous problem. i was struck that the president this morning now kind of defended his son b

reporter: when questioned, christopher wray said he would quit before breaking the law for the president. >>> meanwhile, the head of the senate judiciary committee will ask paulanafort to testify next week in the russia probe, this comes after a new lee revealed meeting between donald trump junior, jar jared kusner and paul manafort. >>> if there was a danger to national security, i would bring it o to someone but it was nothing. >> reporter: the president defended his son on twitter calling donald trump junior transparent and innocent, he referred to the russian investigation as a witch hunt. >> we have lots to talk about with our political analysts. lets talk with christopher wray, it was a different line of questioning than we usually see for someone taking over the fbi. >> it's eurl, how will you run the agency, today, it was focused on, can you stand up to the president of the united states, will you sign a loyalty oath, lots of question on whether or not he has the ability to push back on the administration if they asked him to do something that was illegal. >> in his response, he said he would not be pulling any punches in the position and he would res

christopher wray will be before ae committee and that will be 9:30 eastern on c-span three. our caller was talking about the women with who donald trump junior and paulanafort, jared kushner met. she is a russian lawyer who met with donald trump junior and others at trump tower in manhattan on june 9, 2016, writes the washington post. -- a few dayster, later, seated in front of the house foreign affairs committee hearing in which witnesses discussed u.s. sanctions against her country. a few hours after the hearing, she was spotted again attending the screening of the film and criticized u.s. sanctions. in the course of week from new york to washington, she showed up at several of is that go to the heart of the investigation questions about russia and whether they colluded with the trump campaign to defeat democrat hillary clinton. the picture shows the lawyer seated behind michael mccaul, the then ambassador to russia. -- jim, new york, independent.

paul hempel, the russian government became concerned about the u.s. government's ability to ferret out false canadian documentation. in the case of christophertion was used to support his travels throughout the united states. so they stopped sending him. >> that meant the svr had to find new ways of funding the u.s.-based illegals. in monitoring richard murphy's communications, it became clear the svr was going to task a credentialed russian diplomat to meet with murphy. >> they sent a communication. >> who was the russian diplomat? >> i can't say. >> the exchange happened midpoint on the stairs. the russian diplomat removes a small satchel from the bag and places the bag into murphy's open backpack. in that bag, there had been approximately $300,000 in u.s. currency. >> the theory of the illegals' program is that they have no connection to the russian government. when richard murphy conducted a brush pass with a russian government official, that tied him to the russian government. it was a big break in the case, because that gave probable cause should we ultimately interdict the illegals' network. >> one interesting note we saw in a later m

paul manafort provided some information to also, attended by kushner, in recent weeks. >>> the russia investigation also captured the spotlight as confirmation hearings got under way for christopher's nominee to replace fired fbi director, james comey. nancy cordes was at the hearing. >> no one asked me for any kind of loyalty oath at any point during this process, i sure as heck didn't offer one. christopher wray was told he wouldn't face the same kind of thing. >> the if the president asks you to do something unlawful for unethical, what do you say? >> first i would try to talk him out of it. if that failed, i would resign. >> wray says he met with president trump and top aides twice last month. >> i've went into both meetings. listening very carefully to make sure that i didn't hear something that would make me uncomfortable. >> wray headed justice department criminal division before entering private practice. he was new jersey governor chris christy's personal lawyer during the bridgegate scandal. but he is seen by both side as a straight shooter. >> i do not consider director mueller to be on a witch-hunt. >> reporter: wray is poise ford easy confirmation. even republicans a

paul manafort attended trump tower meeting and cbs news has confirmed that mana fort informed them of that meeting back in may. >>> senate confirmation are underway for president trump's pick to run fbi. christopher wray told lawmakers he plans to lead an independent fbi if confirmed to run nation's top law enforcement agency. he also said he supports special counsel robert muhler 's investigation in russia election meddling and possible connection with the trump campaign. >> i believe to my core that there is only one right way to do this job and that is with strict independence by the book playing it straight. anybody thinks that i would be pulling punches as fbi director sure doesn't know me very well. >> reporter: wray was attorney for new jersey governor chris christie during the bridge gate scandal, if confirmed he will replace james comey, president trump trump fired comey2 months ago. >>> a marine from new jersey was among 16 military members killed in the military plane crash, in the mississippi. twenty year-old dan baldaczar was aboard aircraft that went down in the soybean field monday night. fifteen other marines were killed with the navy kormen. plane suffered a catastrophic failure

paul manafort who i've known since the 80s and at george hw bush's campaign. you've also got trump's nominee, the president's nominee for fbi director, christopher wray, sittinging this week that you know you should do if you get involved with an assistance from a foreign government or agent, you should tell the fbi. >> shannon: that's what people on both sides of the aisles were heard saying similar things this week. i want to talk to about health care because it's the heavy lifting for the president and he's been tweeting all about it while he's in paris. a lot of pressure on the senate to get this done. they are awaiting the cbo score on monday and proposals. what do you know? >> i think they are in real trouble. they need 50 votes. to pass it and then do one vote from the vice president. when i say pass it, even to bring it up, as you say, to debate, a motion to proceed. two senators have already said no, ran paul on the right, and susan collins in the middle. that means they have to hold every other vote and they are probably ten others out there who have great doubts about this. i think there is a great chance that they might not even get to vote on it

out with paul mcculley last week out in wyoming hearing his spiel about how we need more deficit spending no that's probably going to hurt we have to come up with a different playbook >> christopherank you. >> thank you >> great to see you. >> that demo change plays into this baby boomers babyboomers love harleys and they're getting older they're not riding as many wait until you see this. shares of harley-davidson are really down sharply this morning. the motorcycle maker's earnings beat the street but its shipment guidance is weak, and joining us now robin farley, analyst at ubs. is that too simplistic to talk about, would you say, robin, that baby boomer demographics are getting a little bit older they went from -- they delivered 262, 221 last year, 262,000 and they had said flat to down full year this year and now they're saying 241 to 246. that's not flat to down. that's actually down right? >> oh, yes, this is a much worse quarter than anyone expected they shipped within what they guided what matters was what they sold to people. that was down 9 mrs in the u.s this is the big spring selling season this is the quarter that matters most and they had a new engine which only ha