from a formerring boj board member.is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: the bank of japan is expected to stick with its aggressive monetary easing program although it could tweak the inflation forecast lower. joining us is a senior fellow and chief economist at sony financial holdings. also a former senior adviser to the boj. joining us to begin this conversation, covering this bank of japan meeting this week in tokyo. >> thank you so much. the bank of japan is right behind me, wrapping up a two-day meeting. we will get that decision in just over an hour. the press conference this afternoon. that he could join us now to talk about what is at stake here. first of all, set the stage. we know the strong election results, the prime minister has not only cemented the policy in place. oddsy have made the high that governor kuroda will be reappointed. not, the policy continues. what does this mean for the boj moving ahead? >> it is quite likely he will be reappointed. the current framework will be maintained. the boj's policy would work eve

that is one major side effect of the boj policy. centristre seen as a within the boj.you think governor kuroda deserves a second term next year? >> it is difficult to say on the one hand. to the bojroda came sync he could achieve 2% in two years. he said there is no correlation theeen aging issues and rate of inflation. even if he takes another five years, a lot of people don't see the possibility of achieving 2%. why are weso, then doing this current policy? on the other hand, it is clear this policy contributed to the wider interest differential with united states and lead to higher japanese stock prices and the exchange rate. large companies are very happy. it isthis position difficult for the boj to change its policy. >> difficult to have a regime tonge so to speak you'd -- speak. we are seeing a potential regime change at the fed. president trump making this announcement soon. who is right for that pick and does it matter for the boj whether it is jerome powell or john taylor? >> whoever becomes the chairman at the fed, this person will not change policy. it is de

the boj meeting tuesday.an retail sales coming through this hour. , some outside.71 of the open for the nikkei 225. earnings kicking into high gear in asia. including thee big four banks out of china this week as well. let's get you caught up with first word news. pro spain demonstrators gathered in barcelona as separatists lawmakers rejected madrid's proclamation of control. the prime minister has dissolve the parliament and put the administration in the hands of his deputies and called for elections. decide workers will whether to strike in favor of independence. iran is complying with the new through according to a watchdog and is calling on all parties to abide by obligations under the accord. president trump refuse to recertify the deal and washington has impose new sanctions on tehran. the philippine president said the u.s. should stop threatening north korea and reassured kim jong-un there are no plans to force him out. he said the military rhetoric should be toned down and should try to talk to north

the boj knows it can change nobody feelscause it is time for the boj to start pulling back on its monetarys. yvonne: thank you. in a rare case of investor webo is, the owner of being urged to makes with being changes to improve shareholder returns. two shareholder advisory firms mike ins get more from san francisco. what are these complaints? mike: the shareholder advisory investorsre the main pushing the investor campaign. sina has this great assets. webo is not being used to its full capacity. it is being cloistered away a little bit. webo would be the parent company of sina the value could be unlocked, for shareholders. there is now the backing of glass-lewis as well. the shares are trading at $111 in the united states. they could go up to $190. yvonne: are shareholders listening? mike: it is always hard to tell what influence the firm has. there might be a bit of an issue. it is an asian-based company that is involved. investors might be listening. people read these reports. if they don't know what is going on, they are going to do what they would have done anyway. least, if there is a

to boj board has voted eight one to retain its policy.an hit its 2% inflation market during the 2019 fiscal year. dissenting member kataoka says the boj should target a 15 year -0.2%.d -- yield of high.g has hit a record profit was 9.8 billion dollars. it expects high supply and demand conditions in flash memory in the fourth quarter. it is buying back $1.7 billion worth of shares and pain interim dividend of $6.22. three people have been charged in the investigation into collusion with russia. campaign manager and a policy advisor have been accused of multiple crimes. manafort and gates denied the charges but authorities say george papadopoulos pleaded guilty weeks ago and has been cooperating. the responses came thick and fast. president trump tweeted erroneously that the events surrounding the indictment predated the campaign. he also asked why hillary clinton and the democrats were not being investigated. the white house has tried to distance the president from the inquiry. there is no intention our plan to make any changes in regards

that is the boj key inflation gauge. that horizontal line is 2%.can see the actual rate inflation is so far from target that there is some expectation that the boj will dial back on its 2017 core cpi forecast. who knows where, but probably lower. not much time to get there. .obilephone prices are falling that helped to drag down inflation in the u.s.. that is happening in japan. tighter labor market, weaker yen. that will probably justify faith that inflation will head to target. along with that retail sales report today, 2.2% year over year. fromt revised to 1.9% 1.5%. consumers are spending, labor markets are tight. this is why the boj is confident that sooner or later they will meet their target. this is what people will be listening for in that press conference after that decision. election win by shinzo abe, governor kuroda is probably more confident. haidi: he is likely to keep his job for a while. thank you for that. still ahead, oil prices hitting a two-year high. we will look at whether there is any headroom left. rishaad: volatility at re

will the boj step in if it goes the other way?ll two years from now, so it is uncertain. there is some uncertainty about how it will turn out. [indiscernible] i think this should be enough for mr. abe to decide. thate: we are hearing perhaps jerome powell will be the next fed chair. what does that mean for the boj? kazuo: it does not change much or make much difference. there will be continuity. it does not make a change in any material way. it, formerreciate boj executive director. kathleen: bloomberg news getting its scoop. all, trump has made up his mind on the fed chair. he just met with janet yellen today, he is thinking it -- he is taking it very seriously. advisors say he is leaning toward john taylor, taylor rule, considered hawkish, or, jay powell. steve mnuchin is one of the people pushing for jay powell. for one reason, he knows banking, is open to looking at regulation. with his experience and background he could give a reasonable, intelligent, careful look at this. fed chair announcement unlikely to come this week, of

it makes you wonder, what the boj will do next week.speculation they're going to be pushing back or cutting down there inflation forecasts for the short-term. we see a little movement in dollar-yen. let's get quick reaction from sophie kamaruddin as we look ahead to the japan open, those yen shorts continue to pile up. sophie: yen shorts at the highest level since july. they have to be number, given the data we got. not much of a move when it comes to the dollar-yen, falling back. inflation data in line with estimates. overnight the yen did cross the 114 level because of the firmer dollar and verizon treasury yields. as you pointed out, with the boj speculated to trim short-term outlook for inflation, what might that mean for their easing policy? it could imply they could maintain that program. that is entrenching the global policy divergence and that could work in the boj's favor if the yen weakens. that could spark inflationary pressures. dollar-yen is looking range bound as they await other catalysts for the dollar. due out on, u.s.

boj.thers say reform must come quicker. ♪ betty: chinese markets coming back online. if have others like japan offline today. we are washing for reaction to the jobs report on friday. it was really quite interesting. you continue to see -- for the first time, you saw the equity markets little bit unsure of how to read the jobs report. wage growth surprising many economists. i want to pull a chart that shows you how disjointed the treasuries market has been from the equities market. 6076. as you know, equity markets have been on a record run, it seems like stock investors believe the economy is getting better for interest rate hikes. if you look at the bond markets, yields are in the tightest range since the 1960's. they have been that way the last three quarters. it has to make you wonder, what exactly is worrying the bond investors? yvonne: what is being priced in at the moment? we spoke with bill gross on friday about the jobs report. we have been here before. we really have not been abl

abe is speaking and information is coming from the boj. says there are no major imbalances in the financial and economic activities. they say low profitability of japan banks is, quote, striking. there's a lot of questions about negative interest rates in regards to the future. do they stick to the 10 year part of the current? do they move a little further along? we will bring in sarah hewin .rom standard chartered bank from an economic point of view, what is the most important issue for? is a continuity and getting mr. nabe to spend? sarah: i think getting them to spend is key. there has been some success. the economy has gathered momentum. the problem is for the boj that inflation is still too low. still well below 1%. about 0.6% this year and our view. the idea that abe is likely to promote fiscal stimulus, that could underpin growth that should eventually drive inflation higher. but it's been a slow, long process. continuity is key. continuity in boj policy to ensure the stimulus will trigger the eight higher inflation. there has been

tuesday, a lower on drop-off and boj buying.nor kuroda did push back against the notion they are tapering, saying there is no specific timing. to get a sense of the listlessness as we head into that fed decision, the dollar-yen tells a tale, g #btv 2320. it has been unable to break and hold 114 throughout the year. one month implied volatility has fallen to a four-month low. traders are sitting tight, given potential headwinds. let's pull up the futures board to see how it could trickle into the asian session. japanese stocks expected to most of the year. betty: is there going to be more fuel for this rally? sophie: we may see it come october trade out at the top of the hour. it helped to justify the rally we saw for the kospi and the yuan, jumping more than 2%. the kospi spread, exports growth driving the factory output we saw in september. this sentiment is also climbing for november. a strong macro backdrop supporting eps growth. thank you so much, sophie kamaruddin, with the preview on the markets. samsung, going to be in th

the boj under little pressure to take more action.is a lot of missed session for its longest expansion in 16 years. and the independence movement for catalonia trying to find a way forward. it's a leader took off for belgium without telling senior party officials. they say he plans to seek asylum there. madrid has strengthened to control the catalan government and the prime minister has called for regional elections. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. nejra: thank you. now getting back to the bank of japan. the stemless program unchanged, stimulus -- stemless program unchanged. ee are joined by greg -- georg in new york. do you see any difference in the way the japanese and foreign investors are digesting around the yield curve and what does it tell you? george: the bank of japan keeping things on hold and really setting a different course with the ecb reducing their using. the bank of japan still with the domestic program. it

kathleen: it matters to the boj.edures thing and comprehensive look at business conditions and the outlook given by small, medium, and big businesses. manufacturers and non-manufacturers, improving maybe. led by non-manufacturers. services firms. 5320 as we wait for the tonkin results. here are the non-manufacturers. manufacturing will -- we have got the sentiment, business conditions being unchanged among large manufacturers at 719. you can see that is welcome news. picture, the overall this will do best among businesses -- we think of exports having a brighter outlook. they have a change in small business sentiment where most of the jobs are. as long as readings are positive , this is a good trend in a small improvement. we can look at fixed investment. investing in capacity. this helps build the base for future growth. trend.ow you can see the it is a three-month moving average. you can see back to 2015 some fairly strong numbers. way back they were even stronger, then they have the jump up to eight in the second

boj may stay course.o to tokyo for the latest on their inflation troubles. ♪ ♪ anna: this is "bloomberg " from london.pe these images are coming to us from tokyo. the deliberation over interest rates in japan. that will be at 330 in the afternoon over in japan. note change in the monetary policy program broadly speaking but they did trimmed their inflation forecast. we'll be looking for anything governor kuroda has to say about the future of that policy. manus: the abatement in terms of where they're going to hit that inflation target mainstay the bank of japan might have to do a little bit more. we are waiting for french gdp to break. let's focus and now. i'm double checking that my bloomberg terminal has not given me the french gdp? yes. rises 0.5%. continues.r macron bolstered by the brought economic recoveries. strongest year on year growth since 2011. an upward revision to 0.6% in the previous quarter. it seems to be coming out all guns blazing. spain knocked it out of the park yesterday. anna: the b

the boj is looking for it to get that, andlong after that will be a story that says the boj will have here and hold its policy stands for a long time, even in the face of what we expect to be good growth. we don't know how far it will run before you jumpstart the economy in terms of reflationary dynamics, but it seems to take more than a year even with good growth. david: that was jpmorgan chief kasmaneconomist bruce in an exclusive interview stephen engle. an exclusive interview with -- several of those influential guests sat down with interviews with bloomberg television. >> there are some european challenges which require european responses, like migration, security, growth, and jobs. there are national responses which are insufficient, and we need to integrate them with a higher policy. yousef: so there is more work that needs to be done to slow down the trend we are seeing? these are structural problems. >> and there is a window of opportunity to deal with them, because the economy is growing at a healthy rate and there is lots of job creation. we must reform our institutions and

the boj is looking for it to get to 2% not long after that, and that will be a story that says the bojere and hold its policy stands for a -- stance for a long time, even in the face of what we expect to be good growth. we don't know how far it will have to run before you can jumpstart the economy in terms of its reflationary dynamic, but it seems to us it is going to take more than a year even with good growth. >> that was jpmorgan chief global economist discussing the snap election. the epicenter had to be riyadh. several of those influential guests sat down with interviews with bloomberg television. must recognize there are some european challenge us which require european responses, like migration, like security, like growth and jobs. there are national responses which are insufficient. we need to integrate them with a higher level of policy. >> so there is a lot more work that needs to be done to slow down the trend we are seeing and afford further autonomy? problemsare structural and there is a window of opportunity to deal with them because the european economy is building at a

that the principal reason you are into japanese banks because of this yield curve manipulation by the bojre must be more to it than just that? >> there is more to it. if you look at the japanese economy, we are seeing growth deigning traction underneath those low inflation numbers. wage growth is picking up. employment statistics are strong, corporate profitability strong. added to that, central banks are still maintaining easy monetary policy and good growth, and the environment is going from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening favors banks, and japanese banks in particular because they are the ones that were badly impacted during the quantitative easing. yield curvehan manipulation. it is a growth story around japanese and a new environment that favor financials. feeling goodre about chinese banks, so why is that the case? of the same.nks not long ago everyone was worried about hard landing, collapse, debt leverage. chinese authorities have proven they have the means and the will to stop any big downfall from any high corporate debt issues in some areas. if you look at the no

align with the broader picture. -- they arey don't supportive to a certain degree of the boj stance from abe. however, what koike wants to see is a gradual tapering and an exit from the massive stimulus. this is what koike had to say to bloomberg television an interview yesterday in tokyo about the extent of efficacy of abenomics on the japanese economy. the extraordinary easing of fiscal packages have brought only a marginal improvement in the japanese economy and the results are commensurate to the efforts we have made. while i think that policy changes are not desirable since that could destabilize the market, we must think carefully about the exit strategy. stephen: we will see whether this is a referendum on the policies, the economic policies, the boj policies that abe has employed. angie: stephen engle, thank you so much for that. .et's get more let's start in japan. does the abenomics story hold credence? will he give him the victory that he needs -- will it give him the victory that he needs? guest: if you look at economic momentum, it has been supportive of abenomics at th

boj policy to what has been a growing economy? slight growth.stubbornly world -- stubbornly low at .7%. >> that is the point. we have seen there is a difficult process in using growth as a tool to get out of the deflationary psychology japan has been in. we will be sitting here in a year from now with core inflation below 1%. getboj is looking for it to to 2% and that will be a story that says the boj will have to stay here and hold its policy stands for a long time, even in the face of what we expect to be good growth. we don't know how far it will run before you jumpstart the economy in terms of reflationary dynamics, but it seems to take more than a year even with good growth. david: that was jpmorgan chief was cast meant discussing the snap election. that was and i swiss interview with stephen engle. exclusiveter -- an interview with stephen engle. several of those influential guests sat down with interviews with bloomberg television. >> there are some european challenges which require european responses, like migration, security, growth, an

no change in the boj stimulus program.

. >> you are in tokyo to cover the boj policy meeting, that is today and tomorrow.hat do we expect? the boj is held in one place by one thing, low inflation, so low it is under 1% when it needs to be over 2%. that's a look at 7942. -- let's look at 2942. will they lower their core cpi forecast? of 1.1 to it an increase percent. that is one of the key things that could change. mobile phone prices are dropping. a tailwind would be less like in the labor market, a weaker yen. yield curvej keep policy study. and retail for september, supposed to be up 3.2 percent year-over-year, they are up 1.8% in august. that should give them more confident their head in the right direction. betty: we also have the fed holding a policy meeting. no move is expected. are we going to learn anything new? particularly as they lean toward a rate hike in december. kathleen: the november meeting, no press conference, that's one of the reasons why there is 0% chance the futures market, they will move in. move comes ine december. very important, the u.s. gdp never came in stronger than forecast

we have the boj decision later today.obless numbers are coming out of japan for the month of december. the month of september, again showing how tight the labor market is in japan. the job to ratio also staying pretty tight at 1.52. the expectation for economist was 1.5. earlier, it was much tighter. overall household spending falling a bit, down three point -- down .3%. no change essentially from the prior month of .6%. healthful spending coming down. however the job market continues to remain tight, which is really the conundrum for the bank of japan, right? as it continues to see the labor market tighten. there is no wage growth. that is spilling over, yvonne, into as much of a robust inflationary outlook, or even much more robust spending coming out from japan. he can see the markets overall are indicating a lower open. part of that has to do with these declines we have seen in the u.s. market. yvonne: we could be seeing a little profit-making here today after what we saw as robust 20 year highs. the jobless rate at 2

members has the boj should target a 15 year jgb yield of -.2%.have been charged an investigation in collusion with russia. president trump's former campaign chief and the next foreign-policy advisor are accused of money laundering, conspiracy, lying to authorities, and other crimes. paul manafort and ricky gates denied the charges, but authorities say a man pleaded guilty weeks ago and has been cooperating. responses have been coming thick and fast. prison trump tweeted erroneously that the indictment could data the campaign. he also asked why the democrats were not being investigated. the white house was quick to distance the president from the inquiry saying it has nothing to do at the administration and has everything to do with the president's opponents. or plan is no intention to make any changes with regard to the special counsel. today's announcement has nothing to do with the president, the president's campaign or campaign activity. the real collusion scandalized we have said before has everything to do with the clinton campaign, fusion g

the boj will continue that way for quite a long time.hey can expand the program out into the corporate space if necessary. angie: you know who is not buying? chinese homeowners in top-tier one cities. us. mcfarland rejoins plenty more to discuss after the break. chinese property markets and the rest. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ this is "bloomberg markets: asia." let's continue our conversation with mark mcfarland. we were talking about a lot of things, but chinese property prices finally slowing down, but does that make a trend make? >> it's actually the tier three and tier four cities still growing at a rapid clip. that is where the growth is coming at the moment. there is an interesting thing from the party congress, to try to slow down speculation on homeownership. that will be interesting to see how it affects those cities and property price accumulation. david: we talk about who the next fed governor will be, governor kuroda and other possibilities. that was a buzz last week at some point everybody retires. >> the central bank is trying

men --again -- bruce kaz have come up half we surrendered some of the boj purchases tapering off? the exit look like is it too early to talk about it? >> i think it is too early to talk about. purchases will depend on the .inancial market i think the important thing is if we are world and with global , i think theong doj will be importing some and that will help them as they stay on hold as it is. see them and acting -- them adapting? inflation is stubbornly low? the point.that is is ank we can see there difficult process in using growth as a tool to try to get out of the deflationary psychology. if we are right, we will sit here a year from now with core inflation below 1%. i think that is basically going to be a story where the doj was stickier and hold its policies for a long time. we don't know how far it is going to have to run until you 10 really jumpstart the economy, but it seems it will take more than a year. >> you know the history of tax increases in japan. 10 asy go from eight to they expect in october+++ is that going to derail this growth? >> i think we'll have to se

mark: the boj would love those figures.till below 1%. .> it surprised me that is quite an admission of --lt -- maybe the wrong word but admission they are failing and when they should be achieving. they had one center, an interesting one that was isprising -- this person looking for controlling not just 10 years. the only central bank able to achieve this. technically, 10-year yields should be at zero but they defend the margin. they had done that successfully. this member is saying, look for 15 years. that should be less than 20 basis points. that one of come through but it's clear there is still pressure. essentially the bank of japan is saying we don't care if you are going up in the rest of the world, they aren't going up in japan. vonnie: that brings me to the question of whether yields in japan, england, ecb, u.s., if we moving in isolation, or if they are looking at other yields? >> europe is very contained here, i think. jumpve seen a very visible in prices for both spanish and italian bonds. for political reasons,

key price gauge remains unchanged ahead of the boj meeting.e consumer prices excluding food grew 10%, matching the previous month and the estimate. the sluggish gains underscore the view the boj will continue on its current course into next year as its global peers normalize policy. u.s. stepping of sanctions on north korea and imposing restrictions on senior military officials. they are targeted by the new measures. the campaign to persuade kim to abandon nuclear weapons will be on the agenda as president trump visits asia next month. singapore exchange is investigating possible investment to tieups to trading businesses. they are moving away from traditional product corporation to tieups. while he expects ipo numbers to be end the high 20's, he told bloomberg or is no rush to decide on dual class shares. and the views that we received were right ranging. however, our current secondary listing allows for shares. we are in no hurry to implement that to -- implement that. news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in

a continuation when it comes to monetary policy, does that come with kuroda heading up the boj?tephen: it is either going to be kuroda or someone who basically holds the same views. that is conventional wisdom or even one of the guests we had earlier on saying they could clone kuroda, maybe a slight joke. somebody along those lines, because this is part of shinzo abe's pledge. he wants to continue with his policies, and that means we need to have those accommodating policies from the boj. his term expires in april. we will have kuroda continue on from able or someone who holds the same views. us. stephen engle joining thank you indeed. joining us, we'll take a look at what could move in today's trading. keep an eye on phillips which reported a 12% rise. , if an eye on pendragon you're interested in the u.k. consumer and the u.s. consumer as well. this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: welcome back to the "european open." i am matt miller. take a look at phillips. this company out with earnings that were in line with expectations. although sales missed the streets estimates, phillips says it

boj considering lowering the inflation outlook for the full year of 2017.e one to keep an eye on. up next, the ecb and that interview with novartis. ♪ manus: xi elevated. the question is what does it mean for the world's second-largest economy. italy's finance minister warns of disposal of italy's nonperforming loans. gettingst be careful in the speed right and timing right. if we do it too -- [no audio] the swift transition deal with the eu. the cabinet meets today to discuss what britain wants from a future trade pact. getting the speed right and timing♪ manus: you are welcome to "daybreak: europe." it is our flagship morning show in the city of london, i am manus cranny. anna: we are getting some numbers coming through. a little bit of an update. uma saying they are coming in -- puma saying their cells are coming in. they are talking about some part of their business, a partnership with selena gomez. is what wouldon the driver be here? the at leisure trend. [no audio] casual casual wear this at the jim, cafe -- at the gym, cafe -- [no audio] at the start

the imf meetings and institute for international finance, we will hear from governor kuroda from the bojrio draghi, mark carney, a stellar lineup. yvonne: busy for you, for sure. starbucks ceo on why china is its hottest market. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ."tty: this is "daybreak asia i am betty liu in new york. yvonne: and i am yvonne man in hong kong. japan machine orders month on month, a sizable beat, rising 3.4% for august. a survey of economists were expecting a rise of 1%. office some of the highs, that rebound in july, 8% in machine orders. year on year looking better. swinging the positive territory at 4.4%, beating the estimate of 0.7%. solid data, not stellar as r.b.i. economists were saying. but it did show companies were expected to increase. looks like they are wrapping up the third quarter on a decent note. betty: better than what economists were estimating. as we have seen with shinzo abe, he is riding on this momentum with the japanese economy. starbucks sees china as its hottest growth economy with the thatredicting an expansion could last decades. more coffee drinkers in c

then the other thing is there a big change in monetary policy from the fed or the ecb or the boj?t to recognize that the boj and the ecb right now are adding more stimulus than we did at the peak of qe3 if i'm focused on mario draghi if he announced a more aggressive taper in the market that will spill over into treasury yields here therefore that whole risk paradigm we're seeing played out in the record low vix, the very strong u.s. equity market bleed up here, that regime will transition >> earnings season kicking off in earnest today later this week. what sector is your preference >> i think you might have been referencing financials just a few minutes ago. financial also be interesting. they have been signaling certainly the weak side of the businesses they have -- the rate environment is not where it should be either on the curve basis or on the absolute level of yields. i'm going to guess the financials come in stronger here i'm a little bit more concerned on the small caps. small caps have more exposure to the u.s. economy and are going to be a trickier trade after this ral

the decision about how to achieve that belongs to the boj. to present clear policies and hope the voters choose us. koike has until tomorrow, well, she has already stated she is not going to run for parliament. she has until tomorrow to throw her hat in the ring. power.nuclear a sensitive topic. boj easing, both believe that is the correct path. they differ on the consumption tax. and the government debt. says she wants a freeze on consumption tax increases. said they will seek to reduce the reliance on nuclear power, but scrapping it isn't responsible energy policy. aiming forhe cdp are zero reliance on nuclear power by 2030. fukishima is still fresh and people's -- i people's minds. nangie: thank you. the finishing touches on this merger are likely to be announced when they report quarterly earnings at the end of october. final due diligence is being done. market value is estimated at $29 billion. recallingd rover is 17,000 cars to check airbags. vehicles have been refitted with faulty technology. says it had no repo of any airbagsrts feeli

investorstched by and policymakers at the boj., a very important part of japan's business community and the economy, the sentiment number hit a 10 year high. let's jump into the bloomberg new. you can see the turquoise line and the white line on the lower part of this screen making the big move up. the sentiment for big manufacturing hit that 10 year high, 22 from 17. outlook jumped from 15 to 19. the red and purple lines, that' nonmanufacturing sentiment. sin other words, services. for the sentiment it was unchanged at 23. we had the outlook rising just a little bit. small businesses though, they had quite a nice gain in outlook,t, and the and that is important because small businesses are such an important part of the japanese economy. buts it on the screen, according to bloomberg intelligence, that is where most of the jobs are right now. another thing we have watched very closely in the survey is fixed investment. let's take a look at that now. what you will see at the far right hand side of the screen is that far right-hand b

the administration and the boj grow the government can do most everything they can do.we don't see any much improvement from abenomics, so we bring up the fourth arrow. only then the japanese economy or japanese equity market will appreciate. economy will continue to operate well for the next 1-2 years. tos should be enough for abe decide to raise the consumption tax hike. >> i think he will be focused on the big issues of the economy, the consumption tax, and north korea and the constitution, but those of the big issues for him, i think. some of our top guests today on bloomberg as japan prepares to head to the polls on sunday. results expected some point sunday night. has shinzo abe takes a gamble with the snap election he's called for sunday, trying to cement his bid for another term next year, we look ahead with our guest joining us now from washington, d.c. shinzo abeng with an easy victory, but do you think is gamble will pay off or is there still a risk? andnd is always a risk in election, but most of the polls indicate the ldp will do well and they will be able

governor kuroda meeting with reporters ask about what it means for the boj.ays,it very clear as sticking with stimulus come heading for the 2% inflation target. haidi: far away from it as well. thank you. coming up, more analysis of the imf forecast. also, it's taxed squabble with the white house. researchhe ing head of right after this break. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ getting back to the imf. ought to meetings underway in washington. call for lagarde to policymakers to push through reforms and make the expansion sustainable. let's get over to singapore now with rob carnell. we have heard from the equity camp saying this is the perfect scenario when it comes to support for growth, particularly asia. i feel like you may be more benign on the outlook. as you point out, it does indicate on nothing bad terms of policy missteps from a central bank or trade war between china and the u.s.. are those risks higher than what we are pricing in? >> it is hard to know what is being priced in at the moment. some of those risks are binary and could be devastating. the way the

ofthis the expectation continuity from the boj? neil: yes, i would call this the relief.nlike prime ministerneil: may e u.k., i think this gives abe more time to effect some of the changes he wants to put in place in japan politically. some of his corporate policy in terms of share buybacks and increasing returns to shareholders through dividends is still a very strong story for many parts of the japanese market. japan across the board, but i think the shareholder friendly activity we are seeing can continue. with all the cash on their balance japan across the sheets, i think many japanese companies are willing to devised to start returning -- incentivized to start returning cash to investors. haidi: you have a number of these markets where you have equity pretty well-established, given there is not enough inflation for rates to go higher. it is steady as she goes on the way up. neil: we don't share the global synchronized growth story. we think the world is becoming a much more patchy place. we tend to feel that europe and asia look quite set for economic growth, though

the boj of course is interestingly -- has interestingly reduced its buyer etf's.d with a monthly average of ¥505 billion in 2017. 16 days in a row, julie, that is quite a run. julie: a winning chart yesterday and today. in the u.s. we are seeing a special strength in the dow, the only of the three major averages to trade at a record because so many of its members are doing well on the back of earnings. caterpillar is on the rise, 3m as well. the s&p and nasdaq gaining as well. within the s&p we have a winner and a loser in the earning space. corning the best performer, the maker of gorilla glass. we have whirlpool on the downside. their costs are rising and they are winding down their century long partnership with sears. outside of stocks, we are looking at rates that are rising . 2.4%, we have been talking about this level on the 10 year. it is above 2.4% now, 2.41%. and the dollar is rising in tandem. it on and talke about the ecb, draghi just two years left in his office, facing his most difficult task bringing in the asset purchase program he started in 2013.

central-bank action and everybody is talking about tightening including they ecb meeting on a thursday and boje only guy oil has loved of the party in asking where did everybody go, a lot of expectations it will inflate equities as the japanese government continues to buy assets. but any case, very interesting move. also interesting, bitcoin is passing a milestone. ofnow has a market value $100 billion. it grew four times faster than apple. urgent need is no to regulate because of the currency is so low and it will activities that surround the must be stopped. the exclusively to about the risks and potential for more money. means to separate of the cryptocurrency from the so thereg technology, are currencies on their own. we are to keep an open mind on it. and people see it merely as an investment vehicle that will rise and i think that is a rather misguided approach as a use for cryptocurrency. they can have potentially good applications in particular cases, depending on how they are used. it is not so much of that cryptocurrency's value, it is the application that are used. chipper, fast --

supports boj policies and it is too early to discuss an exit strategy.epeated herdate manifesto to phase out nuclear power. the election is on october 22. separatist leaders in catalonia are promising to press ahead pro independence despite a spain march in barcelona. the -- what is happening in catalonia is a real. n -- >> we will always be at the negotiation table. we need another party to negotiate with. we will be there at the table, we have always been there. there is no reason for not being at the negotiation table, whatever the situation is. i think always politics is the answer. that is what we are demanding. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 170 countries. -- than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. paul: banks, insurers and retailers will be in focus when chinese markets reopened later following the golden week holiday. tom mackenzie joins us from beijing. a couple of questions for you. did you attempt to go on holiday? secondly, what can we expect? we stayed put in beijing, we had some pr

opposition, there is a sense that there was no alternative here, the continuity of abe monetaryhe boj'sicy, the lack of momentum from the party as a whole, making -- more attractive, especially for shinzo abe, paving the way for him to be the longest-serving prime minister in japanese history. --e: reallywe weren't expecting it. given the north korean tensions, he did get a major boost. yvonne man was talking about reviving the pacifist -- revising the pacifist constitution, a key issue in japan. i don't envy her. it could rain heavily and that could affect voter turnout. japan.n issue in now that the tokyo governor is saying that she wants to tax those cash reserves by large companies, all of these people, their stock market is soaring, the nikkei is advancing for 14 reserve is not being taxed enough, that was the opposition's point, and they want to get that going to help investors and the ordinary men. governor of tokyo, who won a surprise election, what role is she playing in japanese politics? shery: i interviewed her last year when she was still the tokyo governor, she didn't real

the boj voted to maintain policy while the bank of england is expected to make -- raise interest rateswill come after the penultimate meeting. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more .han 120 countries this is bloomberg. markets are trading as we enter the last leg of trade, here's julius. juliette: -- julius. holding at the november 2007 highs, a gain of over 4% over the course of october. you can see the i.t. sector leading the gains, samsung hit a record high. earnings coming through as well. we are seeing weakness come through from the banks today. have a look at the different markets, you are seeing south korea at a record high, up 9.9%. switch out coming through in china, and super stocks certainly have been getting dumped over the last couple of sessions. apple flyers -- suppliers looking good ahead of the release of the iphone x and yes really a mature market has close lower by .1%. seeing -- isou are a dollar weakness story. some of the asian currencies are rallying. live from london at the top of the hour with daybreak: europe and

that hasn't stopped the boj having conversations during the election.omberg first world news update. >> thanks. turkey fors blamed instigating the latest crisis and says the revolution will officialshow quickly explain why to turkish employees on american outposts were detained. the state department has stayed silent. the ambassador to turkey issued a video statement on youtube. issuingl stop nonimmigrant visas in turkey. theresa mayinister cabinetsupport from members. many praised her strategy. she outlined contingency plans for leaving the eu without the ideal -- a deal. that was rebutted by the european commission. as election campaigning gets underway in japan, the leader of the opposition says she is unsure whether donald trump's administration is stable due to the many personal -- personnel changes. her comments came as she affirmed the importance of a u.s. japan alliance. she also criticized shinzo on -- abe'snomic policy economic policy. nomics is not sufficient. private sector standing on her own feet is better than relying on fiscal packages.

story has beenss the sense that the japanese economy has over many quarters in thelack of success bojat narrow definition of success around inflation. not everyone thinks it is the most appropriate way to judge central banking, but that has been elusive for japan. aymeric: we see a correlation between the yen and equity markets. we have not been as negative as itwere a few years ago when came from the impact on exporters. manus: thank you very much. thank you for joining and a and i this morning -- anna and i this morning. we talked about this in the risk radar, but the one thing that strikes me the most is the british pound down by 0.3%. us --nk of england gives what did mccafferty say last night? we have this story this morning about gran-- anna: a group of conservatives are calling for her to resign. it seems as though he has around 30, according to our colleague. 48 is the number you would need of tory mp's to call for a reelection. it seems as if the names are a mix of those on the right of the party who want something harder on brexit and those on the left of the party who don't

. >> no change in the boj is unprecedented stimulus. >> janet yellen defending her time in office asthree-putted >> -- narrows to three. >> and cracking down on foreign property s

struggling with that maybe not so much the boe because of the plunge in the pound sterling but the boj. should we let go of that >> we are historically still at low interest rates every irrespective of that rhetoric you have to normalize rates. i think higher rates are coming from the lower levels. i take your point. but there are structural differences. >> does it matter to who the next fed chair will be whether it's jerome powell still janet yellen >> from an investment banking point of view, i think powell is going to be quite favorable towards the banks. i think he's quite favorably disposed between the volcker rule, the volcker rule is where the brackets start to use their own capital to trade in the markets. i think he does want regulation. he wants less regulation so certainly i think -- and i think he's dovish. certainly trump wants lower rates. overall i think powell would be a good choice for the market and for the economy overall. yes. >> he's been considered more dovish than kevin warsh. that's why we saw market reaction to the emergence of jerome powell, that's last week o

the boj survey came in at 22 in the third quarter, up from 17 and the best rating since september 2007. that underscores shinzo abe's efforts on the economy as he comes upon a reelection. 0 --global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. guy: catalan separatists signaled that they may move toward a unilateral declaration of independence early this week after yesterdays referendum. -- government spokesman said hundreds of activists were injured on sunday as they try to stop spanish right police from sundown the vote. -- he appealed for your support when rajoy refused to recognize the referendum. referendums been no in catalonia it all spaniards have seen that our rule of law is strong and enforced that a response to those who breach it better reacts when faced by those who oppose it. dayco -- guy: maria tadeo joins us. yesterday, as you wetioned, the president said have earned the right to become an independent republic and will be calling on parliament to enact the law which would make catalonia an independent nation within 48 hours.

the sluggish gains underscore -- boj willthat's remain on its course well into next year, even as peerso normalize policy. in kenya, results of the countries presidential election withdrew this morning -- uncertainty about the vote has unnerved investors. kenya is a regional host of companies including oio do. benchmark share index has dropped 7.6% since the election was declared void on september 1 while yield on the government's international bonds has climbed 34 basis points to 6.36%. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . thanks very much, ed ludlow in london with your first word news. checking on the markets now. in asia, david inglis is standing by for that. david: we are just getting into the close in tokyo. 20 five. 22,000, the first time the index has closed above that level since 1996. a surge pushing that index. it has fallen once this all month. this will give you a sense that this was a slow train moving. hang seng index about two hours gains at ade, .7%,