why the gloom from eurasia group?s the way geopolitics does today, people respond. they see it is a crisis. they have to do something. get the banks ready. we had that in 2008. everyone knew -- dom and i talked about this. you and i talked about this. to respond.sis way geopolitics are easily as that today, globally, as the economics were in 2008. yet, there is no crisis, no sense of "we have to respond. in fact, if you look at the americans, the one country that could conceivably help respond to dig us out of this crisis is actively doubling down. we say we have no intention of providing the kind of certainty to our allies, so as a consequence, anyone looking at the geopolitics today has to understand this is not sustainable and that crisis is coming. tom: dom barton with us as well from mckinsey & company. your institute is a miracle. i do not care about that. i want to know what businesses will do this year. dr. bremmer talks about accidents. you cannot do three or five year ieu ofng amidst a mil accidents. what do

tom: what was the distinctive feature for eurasia?it was that china is no longer small, no longer modest, they will no longer be underneath them. they see that not only are they bigger than they have ever been before, not only does china will have consolidated leadership under the strongest leader they have had since mao -- may be greater than that -- but also that is happening in the context of nobody else. it is happening in the context of trump. if trump has had one major impact on the global order -- and he has -- it has been the road that he has created for xi jinping. the opportunity for the chinese to just really occupy some of that vacuum. but the last time we had a big transformation of global order was the u.k. to the u.s. special relationship, great allies, fought in the war together. now, this transition from the united states -- not going to china. china is creating an alternative. francine: where do you see the relationship between australia and china going, and will that hurt trade and investment in australia? >> obviou

that's according to eurasia topp's annual outlook for global risks.hose, the biggest uncertainty china's ability to lead as he was influenced declines. eurasians president -- eurasia's president shared his thoughts with tom keene and francine lacqua. >> when the global economy feels the weight geopolitics do today people respond. they see it's a crisis. they know they need to do something. they have to bail things out. they have to do infrastructure projects. i have to get the banks ready. we had that in 2008. everyone knew. we all knew it was a crisis we had to respond. the geopolitics are easily as bad today globally as the economics where in 2008. they might be worse and yet there is no crisis. if you look at the americans the one superpower in the world today that could conceivably help to respond to dig us out of this crisis is actively doubling down. we are saying, we have no intention of providing the kind of certainty to our allies of supporting institutions so as a consequence anyone that looks at the geopolitics today has to understand this

at eurasia group.asure to have you at the program. ,alking about your top risks the core of what could go wrong this year comes down to perhaps missteps or accidents on the geopolitical space. if you had to pick one, where would we most likely see that happen? the first two of the top risks are very pertinent for this region. 's vacuum, china importance given the retreat from the asian region by the u.s.. is taking full advantage of this and emerging as a regional power, if not a global power. that has important implications for markets. in addition, the second top risks, accidents, the risk that we could have a political or military accident is very pertinent against a backdrop of assetsw cross volatility. so while markets have ended last year and started this year in there moves and fashion, is certainly plenty of potential for cross asset volatility this year and also for significant market moves. llum, markets have brushed everything thrown at them the past 24 months. on top of that, we are going i

on the whole, this is what president putin calls the greater you'grea greater eurasia project. we have to consider a number of important factors. there are a lot of economic interests at stake. but efb, there are -- this initiative looks so promising because it's based on real life initiative looks so promising because it's based on real life initiative looks so promising because it's based on real life initiative looks so promising because it's based on real life initiative looks so promising because it's based on real lifes initiative looks so promising because it's based on real life this initiative looks so promising because it's based on real life.efb, there are -- this initiative looks so promising because it's based on real life., there are -- this initiative looks so promising because it's based on real life. it doesn't set up for advance then move on to practical things, no. the way we do is, well i can give you a metaphor. you see where people find it comfortable to walk. and after that, they make pathways. can i give you a long list of other initiatives that russia a

group a global leader in geopolitical risk assessment eurasia group is turning twenty this year and welcome back to the day and congratulations on the the big to. you and saying i wish i could say the same of me but as you can see it's a little longer than. you started the company when you were five i'm sure you say that twenty eighteen is is the most dangerous years since you started looking at these wrist twenty years ago why. well the us led global order is broken and that's pretty clear the americans don't find it useful being the leaders in global trade or as the global policeman on promoting global values and no one else wants to rebuild or patch up that old american led order which means that rogue states and nonstate actors have a lot more room to operate and the likelihood of geopolitical conflicts a lot greater look we had a major economic crisis ten years ago the biggest since the global depression but if you remember january two thousand and nine everyone said we need to respond we need to fix this global economy the chinese were putting a lot of money into infrastructur

this is the way we work on the greater eurasia project. i can give you a long list of other initiatives that russia and china have in common. but, i think i can stop here. the key items where we work together. reporter: mr. lavrov, in 1988, russia ratified an agreement on frenchman -- friendship with ukraine. i guess it was 1998. but in 2014, this agreement is no longer relevant. but it was automatically prolonged for 10 years if it was not announced. you have to -- what will you do? will you automatically prolonged this agreement or will you denounce this agreement? again, you are an expert in international affairs. what is your advice to your leadership? minister lavrov: i did not get your second part. reporter: so, what will you do? will russia denounce this treaty or will it automatically prolonged it, or if you do not know yet what russia will do, what will you as an authority, expert in international affairs, what will you advise to your leadership? minister lavrov: if i don't know what to advise, ohio -- how will i advise? jokes asi

the eurasia group has been its annualthis for top risks report, highlighting the dangers that global investors and the rest of us should be aware of in the year ahead. topping the list is china and how it could fill what it calls the leadership void created by the planning u.s. influence. then there is the risk of accidents which could trigger conflict potentially in a north korea and syria. a global tech cold war is also want to watch, as our u.s.-iranian relations. a brief time ago i spoke to cliff kupchan, chairman of the eurasia group, and we spoke about the evolving relationship between the u.s. and china. cliff: the risk has been developing under president obama but really got on jet skis under president trump. the u.s. is in retrenchment, and china loves a vacuum. president xi jinping has declared that china will be a takeraker, not a rule moving forward. trade, writing checks, lashing out at big companies. not imposing their values on other countries. it is an increasingly appealing model. laura: you say that it is more appealing, china's political model, than america's. what

china is high on eurasia group's list of top risks.evin rudd says all roads point to beijing and the year ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. i'm vonnie quinn. shery: i'm shery ahn. the eurasia group is beginning the year with a fresh look at the geopolitical risks to watch and china is high on the list. kevin rudd joint bloomberg surveillance exclusively to weigh in on tensions between australia and china. >> if you look at the australian dimension to this it's just one path amongst the broader picture which is been painted by the eurasia group risk analysis for 2018. the rise of china, the response of government within the region to the rise of china and of course more broadly the response of regional governments including the united states as well to how china will handle the ongoing challenge with north korea. so i think for the year ahead all roads continue to point to beijing. on the question of geopolitics but also on the future of the global economy as well. where do you see the relationship between s

all right, joining us now to discuss this and more is ian bremmer, president of the eurasia group, andbs news senior global affairs contributor. always good to see you. first of all, let's talk about iran and what you make of this. >> well, look, demonstrations in ow authoritarian regime doesn't always allow them. always a big deal. clearly there will be a crackdown, and probably a successful one if it continues. but the reason it really matters is because this gives the hard- liners in iran an opportunity to make the president and the more reformist elements much more vulnerable. it also gives president trump an opportunity to beat up on the treatment of the iranian citizens. he's been hard-lining anti-iran dence day one in the presidency, makes u.s.-iranian confrontation more likely. >> glor: hard-liner anti-north korea as well. what do you make of the latest in the north korea? >> well on the one hand, the fact that the north koreans and thuth koreans say they'd like to etlk, they're talking about sending athletes to the tiympics, that's clearly a positive thing. but it's happening

now, there's something called the peasant commune, not in the entire eurasia but in the russian ports, for example, body in ukraine, not in baltics. the communes collectively redistribute land after a death in the family or a a berth in e family or a calamity so that those who have less land and need more can get a a little bt more, and those were fine can give up a look at atlanta. but after the land is redistributed it work individually. individual household farms. so the commune is not collectively working the land. this is what collectivization of agriculture entails, and the reason he has done this, the reason stalin has decided to do this in 1928, now is going to pose in 1929, is because he's a communist. i know that sounds hard to believe, but the key secret of the communist party archives, the ones that were classified and hidden and it wouldn't talk about them and would let you see them, the key secret of those archives is that when you get to see the communists behind closed doors, it turns out that they are communists. instead of saying, , oh, you kn, all that nonsense, the

politicsthe subject of or geopolitics, eurasia group today releasing its annual outlook. it said if we had to pick one year for a big unexpected crisis, the geopolitical equivalent of the 2008 financial meltdown, you raise run -- eurasia says it feels like 2018. do you share any of that? don't think it is possible to predict when a crisis is going to come. i don't see any crisis on the economic front, in terms of bubbles. i think that point is a bubble but that is not going to tank the market if it does blowup. there are always a few stocks one way or the other but the stocks are not unreasonably priced. on the geopolitical front, i think there is no way to calculate what is going to happen. there always could be a surprise. thank goodness we are more self-sufficient and oil -- in oil. in some sense, we are pushing from some of the type of pricings that would have really upset investors in the stock market in the past. i don't think there is any way of predicting the so-called surprises that are going to come. mark: what about the outlook for european stocks? you look at

a new year brings a new assessment of global risks from eurasia group.sts delve into the details. >> the number one risk ceo's see out there is geopolitical. >> this transition from the u.s. is not going to china. china is creating an alternative. >> the unpredictable of key leaders, the lack of a north star with the united states stepping back in so many ways. shery: mifid ii rules go into effect, and the u.s. releases the old year's file jobs re

meanwhile europe have beaten asia to retain the eurasia cup in malaysia, winning14 points to ten.out of 12 matches in kuala lumpur. england's tommy fleetwood was one of the first to get on the scoreboard. ahead of the ryder cup in september, the tournament made good viewing i learned a lot about, , how we do things together. obviously people will look at the players that are not here, the very strong players that are not here, they will most likely will come into the fold going forward. but this group of players, i have had a really good experience with them this week and it will stand us well when we go out in the future. there has been a shock in snicko's masters event, with world number one mark selby being knocked at the first—round stage. he was beaten in the deciding frame by mark williams at alexandra palace in london. to discuss the match, use jason mohammed come out with steve davis and can directly. what a match? he dominated and got off to a flying start, in the end it looked like he would run over the mind quite easily, and to that horrible kick.l cracking match both p

vonnie: kim wallace, managing director at eurasia group, thanks. mark?ark: let's take a look at the markets and have a look at what is happening to equities in the united states. stocks are rising after the two-day drop, the biggest two-day drop in the last two days since september 2016. quite a significant pullback. up again in the u.s. and on the global benchmarks. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: live from london, i am mark barton. vonnie: from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is "bloomberg markets." the selloff showing signs of easing today. the all country world index saw the biggest two-day decline since december 2016. all sectors took a beating, but energy, health care, and tech got hit the hardest. joining us is bloomberg's equity strategist. are we over the hump and can we get back to rallying? >> maybe. it seems hard for investors to side against the earnings trend, that is what is giving stocks of foot. earnings estimates revision in the u.s. has been 4.5% higher over the last month. that is nine times the average case of the last live years. we hav

. >> eurasia group says 2018 is right or a big unexpected crisis ., what is it weird coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ julia: top 10 geopolitical risks today. our correspondent was at the eurasia group and talk about the year ahead. what i see is this enormous ability to bring knowledge together to allow people to share what they know, to work collaboratively. these tools amplify our ability to do that. we are capable of doing things we couldn't do before because we have help. on the other hand, we also create risk as we depend more on these things. there are people who don't mean us well and would like to exploit our dependence on these technologies to disrupt things weird the petroleum -- disrupt things. the peculiar situation is china is they invest in technology and risk goes up as well, just like ours has. interesting situation that may become destabilized as a result of people, for example, in russia would like to disrupt everything anyway they can. back to youll get if china wins this race for technology, what does that mean for the rest of

a new year brings a new assessment of global risks from eurasia group.ls. >> the number one risk ceo's see out there is geopolitical. >> this transition from the u.s. is not going to china. china is creating an alternative. >> the unpredictability of key leaders, the lack of a north star with the united states stepping back in so many ways. shery: so what else is new? mifid ii rules go into effect, and the u.s. releases the old year's file jobs report.

eurasia group's sake china and trumps america first top the lists as risks.t, -- up next, we will show you what is in store for u.s. equities in 2018, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ yvonne: we are counting down to the first market open. futures are pretty flat at the moment but a lot of geopolitical news recently. particularly after kim jong-un's new year's day address offering party much an olive branch for soul for talks and now south korea looking ahead to january not as a possible date for those talks. as a way to possibly use the tensions over the nuclear program in north korea and of those winter of the games. this is daybreak asia, i am yvonne man. betty: i am betty liu in new york. pretty good run in 2017, hitting those records across thegain, 2018 board. we are talking up to tony nash. you mentioned north korea as a big risk in 2018, you just heard when you read a headline like that, do you believe it? >> and it you have to believe it. you become a bit protective about it, north korea has political problems but they have medical pubs two. so we'll see the ba

joining out the founder and president of the eurasia group. i'm glad to have you today. this is always my favorite thing of the new year is to get your take on what the top two political risks are. >> i appreciate it. >> dana: top of your list is china. can we start with the u.s. and iran? what's going right and what is a concern? >> i'm not as worried about these demonstrations. they are comparatively small. thousands as opposed to millions in the streets in 2009. there are not as threatening to the regime. and the ability of the iranian government to go after the leaderless revolt is pretty high. 12 dead already, they'll probably be more. the concerns are crackdown. crackdowns in iran. this undermines the moderates and iran. the moderates who said we want to deal. no trump is saying we don't like the deal, it's a horrible deal, but more sanctions are. the president is the one that said we have to listen to these people. they have to be allowed to demonstrate. if it gets worse, than a hard line also use that to not only crackdown against the demonstrator but also go aga

a new year brings a new assessment of global risks from eurasia group.nguished guests delve into the details. >> the number one risk ceo's see out there is geopolitical. >> this transition from the u.s. is going to china. china is creating an alternative. >> the unpredictable and the leaders, the lack of a north star with the united states stepping back in so many ways. shery: mifid ii rules take effect, and the u.s. releases the old

proposed spending more than two hundred fifty million dollars on building institutions in europe and eurasia to counter alleged russian meddling the report also suggested preemptive sanctions against so-called state hybrid threat and finally a social media companies would be required to track down propaganda and make the income from political adverts public and political analyst charles or tell told us the report is based on false information. it's really shameful it's really you know a fake accounting of history it's not objective it doesn't really have a proper context and i think serious objective people when they look at this and they try to weigh up the various ways in which we could spend money this won't be won i don't think that that committee reflects. the will of the american people or even indeed the will of congress i think democrats tend to vote as a bloc and this this report which must have been in preparation for many months is yet another tool really used to continue to sell you know the anti russian look there and there to have an end to sell the russian collusion delusion w

the eurasia group is the world's leading political risk research and consulting firm.ian bremmer is also a nbc news senior global affairs contributor. ian, good morning. >> good morning, guys. >> happy new year. china is atop the list, why? >> well, because it's bigger. they have the strongest leader in xi jinping at least since mao, and because the united states is america first. it's unilateral, undermining a lot of alliances. put those things together and suddenly you actually have a china who is willing to engage in what is increasingly a geopolitical vacuum. in other words, this is the first time we've ever seen as u.s. leadership erodes, no one else has been handing up. now the leader of china is saying we're prepared to stand up, whether it's on climate or the global economy, you know, regional security, you name it. that's a big change for the world. >> regional partners are also looking to china, right, if they want an alternative to american leadership in the world? >> they are, because the chinese are writing really big checks. the chinese are the ones sayin

from moscow and suggest spending millions of dollars to help europe and eurasia protect themselves the report also suggests preemptive sanctions against so-called state hybrid threat actors and we discussed the report with political analyst charles alltel. it's really shameful it's fake accounting of history it's not objective it doesn't really have a proper context and i think serious objective people when they look at this and they try to weigh up the various ways in which we could spend money this won't be one i don't think that that committee reflects. the will of the american people or even indeed the will of congress i think the democrats tend to vote as a bloc and this this report which must have been in preparation for many months is yet another tool really used to continue to sell the anti russian look there and there are to have an end to sell the russian collusion delusion when a new senate is seated perhaps with a stronger republican trop led majority you're going to see very different reports coming out of the committee. a video has gone viral of a young man in paris resis

proposed spending more than two hundred fifty million dollars on building institutions in europe and eurasia to counter alleged russian meddling the report also suggests preemptive certain actions against so-called state by big threat time and finally social media companies will be required to track down propaganda and make all income from political ads public. well to discuss all of that we're now joined live by political analyst charles alltel charles thing well let's look at this the no republican senators sign there so do you think any of these measures will be doubted i mean the report is got a lot of words in it and over two hundred pages when you look at the composition of the committee you have a nominal republican i would argue and senator bob corker i think present drop refers to me as a little bob corker who has his own problems with allegations of corruption and that may be one of the reasons that he decided not to stand for reelection you also have jeff flake a republican on that committee so it's really i don't think that that committee reflects. the will of the american people

europe have beaten asia to retain the eurasia cup. today's singles but won 8 out of 12 matches in kuala lumpur. england's tommy fleetwood was one of the first to get on the scoreboard for the europeans. it finished 14—10 to europe. that's all the sport for now. you can find more on all those stories on the bbc sport website. i'll have more for you in the next hour. talks aimed at securing the future of the troubled engineering company, carillion, resume later. the firm builds roads, schools and hospitals, and is involved in the high speed rail project, hs2, but has debts and a large hole in its pension fund. the government says it's working on contingency plans, should the company collapse. our business correspondent, joe lynam, reports. carillion is probably the biggest british company you have never heard of. it is an engineering, construction and outsourcing giant which maintains dozens of schools, prisons and mod facilities. it is also building parts of hs2 and the royal liverpool hospital, thanks to pfi contracts. but it also owe

in the eurasia cup in golf europe trailing a shirt in the singles.ree foursomes this morning but a shed came back strongly when ross fisher and bernd wiesberger missed this padded back at the 17th, a show went ahead 6.5-5.5. it is all at the 17th, a show went ahead 6.5—5.5. it is all set for the sunday singles. keep up—to—date with that and was bought on our website. i will have more view, without my tail, later on. we do want to see your mermaid swimming, it's definitely worth another look. lib dem leader sir vince cable says the government should not bail out the construction company carillion. it is one of the government 's key contractors. it is £1.5 million in debt and is discussing a rescue plan with investors. sir vince cable said investors shouldn't pay the bill.” think it's got 43,000 employees, and many more thousands who work as subcontractors so it's a massive industry. it's taken an massive numbers of contracts, and the government now has a big dilemma. it can't allow all these contracts to be unfulfilled yet at the same time it can't ba

tom: thank you for joining us, meredith sumpter with eurasia group. bremmerout out to dr.erday. what a wonderful show to kickoff the year with eurasia group. we continue with ron temple. your morning briefing. you're in your car. the antifreeze is working across america. it's cold. it's like fargo, north dakota. warming up your car in the driveway. do it with bloomberg daybreak. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm taylor riggs. two u.s. airlines have joined banks in dishing out thousand dollars bonuses in the wake of a new tax deal. american and southwest announced the bonuses after the close of business yesterday. airlines, banks and insurers have led the way on bonuses. all industries have regulatory business pending but the trump administration. home resales fell in the fourth quarter. sales of previously owned condos dropped 11% from a year ago. perspective buyers wavered at the tax overhaul and stood firm in their refusal to overpay. 2017 was a box office bust. moviegoing fell to the lowest point in 25 years. canadas in the u.s. and sold 1.2 bi

we will be hearing exclusively from the eurasia group next.is is "bloomberg markets: asia." i am haidi lun in sydney. rishaad: i am rishaad salamat in hong kong. this yearoup morning could see a geopolitical crisis on the scale of the financial meltdown a decade ago. it says the biggest uncertainty surrounds china. andrew bishop spoke about beijing's move to fill a vacuum has u.s. influence wanes. china and xiow, jinping and president trump tried to downplay tensions. they played nice throughout 2017. 2018 is a year for china to grow with assertiveness. there is a moment of opportunity for the chinese leader with china having one of its strongest presidents in decades at the same time the u.s. has one of its weakest presidents and decades. china is the only country that has a global strategy. most of its rivals and competitors look at the world in a tactical day-to-day basis. china has a 20 year plan, and we think it is well on track to achieving it so far. >> when you talk about u.s. and china, you talk about trade, trade tensions, and certai

orwell's one thousand nine hundred four you know we're no longer at war with east asia we're at war with eurasia we've never been at war with east asia it's that sort of thing on the ground it's a predictable thing business essentially a rehash of the old wolfowitz doctrine of nine hundred ninety four there is no new thinking involved the us must remain the sole superpower on earth we must do anything we can move heaven and nerves spent untold amounts of money to prevent any rivals from coming up to challenge us ironically it is our hyper interventionist foreign policy among the most the most likely to make others want to come and rise and challenge the us so in a way we're participating in our own downfall on this. big money involved and that needs big just a fixation so let's just hear one of the things that james mattis had to say. to those who would threaten america's experiment in democracy they must know if you challenge it will be your longest and your worst day. so. what kind of message is money sending out that. well we've had an awfully long day in afghanistan for seventeen years now g

europe have beaten asia to retain the eurasia cup.to today's singles but won eight out of 12 matches in kuala lumpur. england's tommy fleetwood was one of the first to get on the scoreboard for the europeans. it finished 14—10 to europe. laura muir anchored great britain to victory in the great edinburgh cross country mixed team relay yesterday. the former european cross—country champion was in fine form yesterday. she took over from adam clarke for the final lap behind europe and belgium, but made up the ground to win by seven seconds. she won't be appearing on the track for this year's commonwealth games because she's finishing her veterinary exams. the vet school has been so supportive. my coach andy as well has been here every step of the way. we planned it years in advance. we knew i wasn't going to do the commonwealth quite a while ago. with everything planned for years, it is a matter of getting it all done and hopefully getting a medal. that would be great. hopefully i am in the europeans as well. lisa ashton has won her fourt

let's take a listen to what he and bremmer, the founder of the eurasia group had to say over iran yesterdayt is very clear that trump his anti-iran.h he has don that with a stronger relationship with the saudi's. he has done it by going after the iranians, going after what they have done with support for hezbollah. most recently, given the demonstration in iran, coming out and saying, we oppose the oppression. john, i'm curious if you see any potential that that heightened political unrest in iran and heightened political tension across the middle east will begin seeding into the oil price? i think that in many ways, this has been priced in over the last few days. we should see today and tomorrow how oil trades. i do not see any significant upside. the rest of the opec member countries can easily cover, if there is an iranian it shortage, due to the geopolitical uncertainty. maybe a little bit of an upside. nothing substantial. word according to the fed. the latest minutes on the continuation of gradual tightening. more on what that might mean for global markets. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ trac