lows let's get out flou to the cm aevenlt rick santelli for a special jobs friday "santelli exchangeick >> absolutely. thank you. i'd like to welcome harvard professor ken rogoff i'm so excited to you have on this jobs friday thanks for taking the time >> thanks for having me. >> you know, ed lazier is a frequent guest he drilled into my brain over many years that when the hours worked shrinks, it has a duel effect on jobs numbers a, it overestimates job creation and, b, it makes any rise in wages less potent. today we had a drop in the hours worked and we had a nice jump in wages with solid job performance. can you equate that with the two points i brought up and tell me your impression, professor >> ed lazier is right. if you're cutting back on the number of hours more people can work and on the other hand if they're working less hours, there's less consumption, but, you know, it was still good news that wages were going up >> absolutely. you know, if you look at things that are supposedly purportedly give us insights and how many fed tightenings we get for this year, it seems to b

. >>> as for now, you're santoli santelli is the other guy. mike santoli, thank you. >> kelly, you have a long day. good luck. >> we both do. >> god speed. >> andrew made it. make sure you join us on tuesday. i forgot "squawk on the street" is next ♪ ♪ >>> good morning on a friday good morning and welcome to "squawk on the street. i'm david faber with jim cramer. carl quinn la is in the wtanill winter -- he's at the winter olympics in pyeongchang, south korea. been be doing an amazing job covering so many aspects of that let's take a look at futures as we wrap up this week been a good week for the markets. if you're long, the markets are rebounding dramatically from the lows that we saw made up almost 60, 70% of the losses that we saw in the s&p. european markets have also had what you might expect, a good week also. this morning no exception. green across the board ten-year yield note has been a focus. today didn't care down 2.86. there's a look at wti back above -- back above 60 solidly this morning >> yeah. >> all right let's get to our roa

santelli.e viewers on qualcomm this morning and the on going battle against that offer from broadcom. qual co qualcomm shares are down. that does seem to be pressuring shares of qualcomm right now overall, potential weakness it seems to a certain extent in the ecosystem surrounding the sale of wireless devices. speaking to people close to broadcom, what i'm picking up from them when is when they look at the number and guidance from qualcomm in light of that $7.50 number that qualcomm came out with saying they could achieve in fiscal year '19 they're concerned. he said we don't see that is a real possibility, particularly given the numbers. now whether that actually plays through, no. i mean, they still are expected to raise their bid for qualcomm. and that continues to be what i am hearing that would happen in the short term but perhaps they will take into effect and account for diminished earnings near term for the company and their continued belief that qualcomm won't be able to reach those n

there with the santelli exchange.elcome my first guest here, doug holtz-aiken. everyone is scratching their head they like to smerpend more mone with tax reform, but there's federal reserve and all central banks at some point are taking the punch bowl away. now, many of us wanted that, but it all seems to be happening at a time where the deficits really look like they are going to grow exponentially. your thoughts on this package? >> i think there's good reason to be concerned about this deficits, but that was true before we did the tax reform the federal budgets on the unsustainable course has been for a long time. how do you aggress that? you have to fix the large mandatory entitlement spending programs and i don't think think you can do that in an environment of growth so i'm glad to see the regulatory reforms and the tax reforms that we have seen in the past year. i think that moves us from something that looked like 2.3 in 2017 to 2.8 or higher in 2018 that's an environment where you can take on the long-term def

rick santelli, get this edition of the santelli exchange good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl.the end of the previous year, 2016, a dollar indexwas 1.02 and change end of 2017, .92 and change. hasn't been a banner run for the dollar the last year and a half or so, but nonetheless if you look at what's going on with interest rates, with the federal reserve, balance sheets, rates, it seems a bit incongruent but there are other ways to look at it. if we have a weak dollar, we import some inflation, that could effect the fed, the euro seems to be the darling. and then "the wall street journal had several articles the last few days speaking about how investors maybe even in japan may cut back on treasuries, the weak dollar, they believe it has to do with the current president and his ideas regarding trade. whatever the reason, technical analysis cuts through all that, and there are big things going on let's go to the board. chart of the dollar index. settle at 92.12. you take high close and low close for the year, that mid point is 90.52 you know where we're trading now? anybody? ye

only from aflac >> now let's get to rick santelli with the santelli exchange. >> hi, i'd like to welcomeok at the board and see ccp coming up. post the jobs report, even with the dropping hours on the work week that seemed to be the catalyst of a market change what can we expect, in your opinion, from the inflation front and effects on rates >> yeah, we still forecast up for tomorrow increase of .25 increase on the cpi number but most importantly have to reflect this is wage impression rs slowly increasing. from that, investors need to be thinking about recalibration of yield curves, recalibration of rates moving high, and again, response of the fed to all that data so for tomorrow it's an important piece of data, but it could be continuation of what we have seen improving trends. >> do you see any rate of change speeding up? do you see the rate of change speeding up on the delta, so to speak, of wages or generalized inflation in the economy >> the hope and goal and what we see is wage pressures are slowly moving higher as we have moved from the economy. >> slowly? >> slowly moving highe

welcome to the party. >>> let's get to the cme group this morning and get the santelli exchange.. >> hey, carl you know, many are looking at the dollar index, and it really has had some better days has it bottomed? let's go to the charts this is the dollar index chart year-to-date starts on the 29th of december a couple of things to jump out right off the bat. we settle at 2.12, made a high for the year at 92.53. the low for the year at 88.60. the first thing is, if you average those out, basically, it's right around there. so you can see, right around 90.60. that we failed here, we failed here but, of course, this time we didn't know what the low was going to be. but this makes it that much more important. the other thing that's really interesting on this chart is the symmetry see these question marks those are dates. we'll get to that in a minute. but the point is, if we start to trade above the 90.5, so let's make it 90.60, they're so close together this thing is going to go. how high it goes, that's what i find the most fascinating of all. you know how much i like symmetrical

there we're looking at the dow there is the s & p let's get to santelli now.ngs in his world for the "santelli exchange." take it away, rick >>> thanks, david. we're going to pick off, start off where robert in the last segment left off you know, risk parody. there is a real david and goliath story regarding what is the impact of volatility and where it comes from with regard to the markets on a equity side. and the david side is the risk parody products that robert was describing this has been a very successful and it's a very innovative business that is growing into a variety of products modelled to some of the large efst institutn in the world, trying to maximize returns on their portfolios. the main issue is that the pricing of these products happens to be things like the vix. and specifically in many cases the vix. because everything needs a point of perspective with regard to make all the adjustments the issue is not only is the vix intergral into all the etps which are more of davids in this store yishgs b story but they're undermining the bull market i

is there with his santelli exchange.ck. >> thanks, mike. jim bianco, thank you for joining us today you know, you had a chart in one of your writings that showed all the central anks' balance shee accrued together, and the level. now, remember, we all have this feeling central banks, ours in particular, is kind of pulling the water back but as of february 2nd, it's the biggest balance sheet combined ever that level is? >> $16.4 trillion. >> never been higher >> the week before it was slightly higher, yes. >> and what percentage do all these central banks own in terms of the credit markets, fixed income, sovereign markets? >> 33% of all sovereign bonds are now owned by central banks, up from 14% before the crisis. >> all right so let's play this one real macro and real easy. if central banks own 33% of the securities, and their balance sheets are bigger than they have ever been and stocks correlate with that balance sheet total, when we see religion and other central banks like our fed, is there any way we can go through

let's get to the cme group and get the santelli change can rick santelli hey, rick. >> hey, carl goodning you know, we have objections th auction this is week we have 28 bill. the size of the auctions was not as big as it was today the problem is that we're adding boat loads of extra t bills in 2018 tomorrow, of course, we'll have 35 billion fives that's a billion more than last time and 29 billion sevens. finalizing 92 billion in supply. that will be on thursday so that 92 billion obviously is four billion more than than the 88 billion package we were used to for most of 2016 and 2017 here's something fascinating let's look at the net change in interest rates across the curve today with regard to the maturities that we are auctioning off and specifically let's concentrate on the two year note yield. it settled at 188 at the end of last year. so it's up 34 basis points which is going to make this very interesting because normally you might look at a 30 year bond or a ten year note and the ten year note by the way is the is the biggest net change increase in rates for the year, no surp

let's now get out to the cme group in chicago rick santelli has his santelli exchange >> everybody, oftrying to handy cap exactly what ten year note yields are going to do. and it seems like it's still seems like a forgone conclusion. we're going to be testing 3% but do keep in mind our high yield close for the cycle which goes to that last day of 2013 when we actually traded and closed above 3%, well, it was 2.95%. it was only 3 1/2 sessions ago, wednesday. we had a 2.95% yield close we've come off since then. even though equities moved a bit higher and regained their sea legs, normally we tend to correlate in that direction at least from a textbook perspective. so trying to handicap the direction here as we've come off, many say it's going to be all about the next employment report it isn't this friday it's a week from this friday and i actually happen to agree with it. so let's look at the yield curve as a directional indicator viewing isolated ten year note rates with the context of how things change in the last employment report. so the blue line is the yield curve. tens minus two

has "the santelli exchange."k >> good morning. thank you, jon you know, these are exciting markets and to some exciting isn't a preferred word they would rather have less volatility, steady as she goes, maybe more of a market style that we experienced for much of 2017 but it is what it is but is but i think that there's some important things to learn in the macro about how to deal with volatility this period might give way to more stable outcomes but i think ultimately the question then becomes is this the big one? in other words, is this the big move that nails the top for a long period of time with respect to equities? i think we've already established those sub-140 lows and tenure are not going to be seen again any time soon my answer to that would be probably not, but it doesn't mean we're not going to have a bit of a wild ride all is fungible. there's a pit behind me with 200 traders in it. if they all put $1 in a bag, i'd have $200. does it matter which one gavemy which dollar no when one country does somet

jon, we'll see new 10 minutes. >> see you then, scott >>> let's go to rick santelli.s, jon you know, it's been quiltte a we and a half in response to how the markets reacted. and these types of corrections which we've have had so few of over the last 14 months really are a bit shocking because we haven't had any. and there's many investors that don't pay as close attention as some of the insiders and they were shocked. the blame game is going all around the best way to look at this is there was a confluence of major areas that all contributed to. this but in the end, i look at it as a tinder box ora dry forest you don't need to set all the trees on fire, just one or two and it spreads like wildfire so whether it's risk parody or portfolio management, whether it's etps, whether it's the fact that many like in the previous crisis were focusing on very specific areas to do pricing for a variety of positions that amounted to so much, there's no way to tell. but in the end, in the end, on balance, there's little doubt as to what's going on here. central bank balance sheets

let's get over to the cme group and rick santelli with "the santelli exchange. >> thank you there's aeak going on and i like to watch streaks because to me patterns are very important now you can -- we've been through this discussion many times with regard to technical analysis of course, you have to pay attention to fundamentals. but sometimes the strategist that's trade the markets also like to look at charts, observe patterns, think of our own channel, it's all about patterns, big data bases of patterns to that end, something happened to ten year note yields on every friday of 2018. the last friday of 2017 was the 29th it was also last trading day of the year we settle a ten year note yield of 241 here are the closes every friday since. you know that intraday is important, daily close is important. yesterday technically a 2.91 is the highest yield close going back to early 2014 but if you look at closes, the next most important close outside of daily is weekly which is what we're looking at we went to 2.48, 2.55, we have one, two, three, four, five -- this friday will be the sixth

carl, we'll see new 15 >> let's get to the cme group and get "the santelli exchange.", rick. >> hi. thank you, carl. we've had a lot of things going on in the last couple of weeks big time you know, consider about three weeks ago some of my equity friends told me, boy, watch out this rebalancing is going to be big. i wish i would have made a bigger deal about it but like many things in the equity markets, i heard art cashen say this, he's such a sage man that there have been a lot of issues where it looked as though dire selling was going to push the legs out from underneath equities but always swamped by more buying of course, this rebalancing dn the quite have that. and we remember a couple of days where the market was down-and-out now it seemed to have gotten the sea legs back. make that volatility is going to be in the rearview mirror. and vicx is not any favorite wa to approach this it still is a 13 handle. the market really since november of 2016 has been small retracements and low volatility. so we really need to be cognizant that if that starts to change, you d

thank you. >>> let's get to the cme and get the "santelli exchange." >> good morning, carl.now, watching the minutes yesterday, watching the ten year note yield basically move from 2.91 before the minsz utes to 29 as the minutes were released it hovered there it didn't go bofrcrazy until 2:5 the minute traded above 2.91, the current, as of yesterday, the high yield close going all the way back to the end of 2013, early 2014, that's when it popped to 2.95 we also saw two year note yields move to 2.27 there's a lot of focus on interest rates at a time where we have a lot of debt there is talk this year that we're going to have a budget deficit with a trillion dollars or larger. let's go to the white board. look at these years. 2009, we had a budget deficit of $1.413 trillion. okay and then the national debt at that time was a whisker under 12 there are trillion 2010, just a bit under $1.3 trillion for the budget deficit. $13.6 trillion on national debt. 14.8, 1.295, a little less than 1.3 in 2012. you know, a bit over, $1.087 trillion national debt at $16 trillion now the nati

let's get out to the cme group and rick santelli with "the santelli exchange" and i believe some chartses, exactly. i'll tell what you i like charts they make everything simple. what isn't going to be simple is how treasury yields especially the long end, you know, the short end is on automatic pilot. two, three, four rate increases, we're not sure march is baked in cake the fact we have a the love volatility in equities may affect the fed's psychology. they may not admit it. only if it happens in close proximity. the markets can always get crazy again. they seemed to have sut ld down somewhat let's go to the board. let's look at everything i think this was the entire key if you remember the big jobs report first friday of the month, year over year average hourly earnings. you can see that they are very important to pay attention to especially considering the fact that we're testing levels that we haven't seen in a while as a matter of fact, we went up to close to two and change when you think of the year over year being at 2.9 hasn't happened in quite a while. let's look at the break e

i was listening to a nice man earlier, rick santelli, talking about how customers wanted these things i disagree with that they got sold and when i go back to what the sec says about these products when they blessed it, they said you don't have to worry because the market is deep enough it is not deep enough. >> the product began to be used by retail investors and these products have doubled in price over the course of less than a year in many cases moving away from them and dealing with the broader market and the s&p 500 and what's really more important here, jim, we go through periods of volatility we just forgotten what it was like >> we had the tronc decline and a lot of good stuff is down 10% or 15% this is a repricing based on interest rates but it is also, david, a realization to trump rally. it is not a trump rally. it is an asset class doing much better around the globe and it is readjusting around the globe. did japan experienced it >> no. to me is inflation worldwide of stocks and now we are resetting. a lot of companies in the basket is doing well. the basket was do i thin

. >>> rick santelli has the santelli exchange. hi, rick >> hi, mike.o veteran traders that have been doing it a long time, a long time defined as they were veterans before computer trading, what they will tell you is if you have lots of capital, you will never end up with a bad trade if you can hold it long enough which means it's simply all about timing timing has been the critical issue in my opinion for 2018 think about the timing of what central banks are doing. their balance sheets, their rates, their policy. view that against the context of true fiscal policy that actually is going to make the economy grow, think tax reform, less regulations. and think about how all of those variables are meeting in a landscape that we've any quite seen before. configured in a way that never existed before it's very hard, timing for all of these issues is critical. so what we see as volatility is a big focus for activity and how portfolios are managed and hedged dynamically, and from a mechanized standpoint, what we find is it's hard to pick out when things get c

with the santelli exchange hey, rick. >> good morning, michelle.this morning, jim karen. thanks for taking the time you know, jim, you're at the epicenter. i focus on theepicenter. what's going on in the credit markets has been a key focus point for the last two or three weeks. a lot of volatility in the market how much of this, in your opinion, has been caused by rising ten-year rates? i don't know why it's so shocking most analysts have been wrong the last half dozen years looking for it >> well, you know, rick, i think it's a good point because what the market is trying to determine right now is that yields are rising because things are going better but sometimes you can have too much of a good thing, and where's that tipping point between it's a good thing when rates rise because it represents a stronger economy, but if they rise too much, then it becomes a tipping point where it can actually hurt other assets what we're trying to do is figure out where that is the way we're doing that at morgan stanley investment management is looking at ten-y

carl, back to you. >> thank you, rick santelli.g up, roku shares taking a hit on guidance but the stock soar eed since they went public five months ago. we'll talk to anthony wood lerat this morning we're back in a minute is the monolithic view of emerging markets obsolete? at pgim, we see alpa in the trends, driving specific sectors of out performance. where a rising middle class powers a booming auto industry. a leap into the digital era draws youthful populations to mobile banking and e-commerce. trade and travel surge between emerging markets. everyday our 1,100 investment professionals around the world search out opportunities for alpha. partner with pgim, the global investment management businesses of prudential. i thwell wait. what did you meetthink about her? it's definitely a new idea, but there's no business track record. well, have you seen her work? no. is it good? good? at cognizant, we're helping today's leading banks make better lending decisions with new sources of data- so, multiply that by her followers, speaking

in chicago get the "santelli exchange." chicago in person. >> great to finally meet you. >> great to finally meet you we've had a wild february. as i look up at the screen i see about 120 points above the middle of the range if you look at the all-time high and the low and the 23 and change from volatility so i don't think this is completely over yet, we'll do some consolidation the point is is that we've seen a lot of activity in the credit markets, we've seen movement in high yield and corporates. how do you put them all together in this new world? >> you know, i think high yield has been relatively contained. the investment grade side is barely budget, we're seeing issues do very well. they've been pricing throughout this whole crisis. so it's really restricted to first the volatility is in the vix that's pressed directly to equities but the bond markets hanging very well and people looking to the bond mashlgt for problems i think they're fighting 2008's battle that's not where the problems are this time around. >> that'

santelli here we go with what, jim?well, i don't know. >> your call >> my call listen, i'm looking at a market now that we're having a significant rally. weep up over 1% in the s&p >> down side >> really? >> because we were up big at 347 this morning >> you keep bringing up 347. >> well, why not david, they're all connected to these -- you know, to these pieces of paper that weren't well thought out >> but they're done, right >> yeah. >> why >> because you had to sell that s&p at the opening and that was known by the -- i feel badly, a lot of people get faked out once again. we did a lot of talk this morning about crash-like symptoms that doesn't happen. don't forget the trucks outside being a fabulous indicator >> let's take the big picture before we -- as we sort of back up here. >> a little red, what is red >> earnings, you're expecting earnings growth. this year, i would assume, still benefits from tax reform >> yeah. but remember, retail is a big winner >> and retail. >> so boeing is up 10. you know, when it was do

the "santelli exchange."ck. >> good morning, carl. i like to welcome my guest former fed governor mark olson mark, thanks for joining us this morning. >> rick, thanks for having me on >> you know,we've had many discussions in the past about interest on reserves and congressman and chairman hensarling found it interesting as well. here's what the chairman said. you'll be hard pressed to find any congressional record or any testimony from the federal reserve use the market this power. do you think that's right, mark? i mean, i understand where he's going. and i think there's a lot of things central banks have done all around the globe that probably stretch their charters very wide into the gray. but on this topic what do you say? >> remember he used the term the market power what they're looking for is market instrument that would give them idea of what rates should be. in my opinion market power is size of the balance sheet but not only that the size of the cash surplus so as you're trying to adjust interest r

santelli is following it at the cmi. >> this isn't a terrific auction but above average. it is a c-plus so we have 35 billion five-year notes an the yield 2.658 the issue market was 2.66 on the bid side offered at 2.655 so we slipped it right in the middle that is good and you had 2.44 bid to cover a little below the ten auction average of 2.48. 58% on indirects the week since april of last year, ten auction average at 65%. the golden spot 12.7 on direct versus a 9% ten auction average and dealers take 29.3. so charlie plus -- and by the way, last thursday we learned the fed balance sheet grew by 11 billion and they are still buying today you could see the auction was $43.5 billion because the fed bought 8.5 billion of five years for some of the runoffs. so indeed they still are buying and i think that is -- that deserves a special annotation in front of tomorrow's seven-year auction completing 92 billion in supply without including soma which is system open market account. back to you. >> very big week snoop retail rebounding from tuesday's big drop the number of names f

david and jim, back to you >> rick santelli at the cme.arl is at the winter olympics in south korea, we'll stay on top of what's going on in our market and you can see we are having a rally >> 20 minutes. >> keep it here. at fidelity, trades are now just $4.95. we cut the price of trades to give investors even more value. and at $4.95, you can trade with a clear advantage. fidelity, where smarter investors will always be. and at $4.95, you can trade with a clear advantage. feel that? that's the beat of global markets, the rhythm of the world. but to us, it's the pace of tomorrow. with ingenuity, technologies, and markets expertise we create the possible. and when you do that, you don't chase the pace of tomorrow. you set it. nasdaq. rewrite tomorrow. take a deeeep breath in... and... exhale... aflac! and a gentle wave-like motion... liberate your spine... aflac! and reach, toes blossoming... not that great at yoga ya but when i slipped a disc, he paid my claim in just one day. so he had your back? yup in just one day, we process, approve a

joins us from washington, d.c. >>> now let's get to the cme group and "the santelli exchange." >> goodng. thank you. i have to weigh in you did such a remarkable job. you know, to talk about any type of discretionary spending in the future that's going to make a difference toward deficit picture, all i can think of is senator simpson. it is unbelievable the amount of light that we see for discretionary spending is getting smaller and smaller. all our forced entitlement spending pretty much on automatic pilot eats up the balance sheet. and this isn't about what you think about entitlements this is about if you really want to control deficits, it's easy to get together and spend more it's much more difficult to get together and spend less and tackle where the spending is going. all right. to today's notion. you know, we heard of the two step the treasury market and all sovereign markets are doing the two step it's important if you recall, the uppattern after november 16 election outside of 2018 for equities was basically a two step it would go up two steps, hardly have a step back, keep

back to you. >> thank you, rick santelli.up monday, be sure to tune in early for "squawk box," when becky quick sits down with warren buffett in omaha for an warren buffett in omaha for an interview you won't want t fidelity, where smarter investors will always be. miss more "squawk alley" after this >>> take a look at the s&p, now up almost fua n% benefitting up almost fua n% benefitting from clear, actionable alerts about potential investment opportunities in real time. fidelity. open an account today. more "squawk alley" continues in just a moment. the nr:and gun makers, following last week's deadly florida school shooting. blackrock says it will engage with manufacturers and distributor. meanwhile, the first national bank of omaha plans to draped the nra-branded credit card. three company responses -- symantec says it's drops the nra program, and metlife said it decided to end our discount program with the nr:, and snow insurer chubb says it will stop underwriting nra insurance for gun owners so a limited sample here but

i want to hear more about the kissing cousins liquidity and volatility let's get to rick santelli >>, i guess my biggest memories are very appropriate today. now granted you didn't have some of the fancier contracts but in the end, the first recognizable issue, the first thing you notice is the fragility of the bid offer spread you saw it yesterday after we really started to escalate down in the down side of the dow jones industrial average, saw that instead of having 10, 15 point bid offer spreads which is in itself a little bit wide, all of a sudden it starts moving in 50 then 100 and 150 point increments very normal. that is the cousin, as i said, of liquidity what normally happens -- excuse me, volatility what normally happens when the volatility picks up, traders, of course, aren't going to deal they want to deal in the emotional side so i guess the great analogy would be in people on cnbc said it yesterday, you never want to sell in an motional time you're going to be one of those extensions that occur. but here's the problem here's where you compete with when that volatility i

nbc news national political reporter carol lee and cnbc's rick santelli. welcome to sunday. it's "meet the press." >> announcer: from nbc news in washington the longest-running show in television history. this is "meet the press" with chuck todd. >> good sunday morning. if you can remember as far back as tuesday the week's news cycle began with the chiefs testifying that russia is continuing to interfere with our election systems here in 2018 and president trump hasn't asked them to do anything about it. well the weakened with attorney general rod rosenstein announcing 12 russians and an ol gashing close to putin -- oligarch close to putin and support the candidacy of donald trump using social media. in between was the horror of another school shooting. 17 students and teachers dead in a high school in parkland, florida. this weeks, because there are so many, prompted this facebook post of a depressingly familiar cycle. mass shooting, followed by calls for thoughts and prayers. facebook debates, everyone forget, congress does nothing, crickets chirping, then another mass sho

. >> i want to go to chicago rick santelli. up there, he's watching the bond market closely rick, i rustled you up because i'm wondering what you make of, and this is the second day in a row, where yields are falling and stocks are falling >> well, you know, 284 is current ly the high yield close for the year for tens. we're at 281.5 so yeah, they're falling i don't pay a lot of attention intraday moves they're a roller coaster i care about where we got off and for the most part, even though there's margining throughout the day, it's the final price that's significant but i've made something easy here the long end has been the star of this drama/tragedy we've been living through and if you look at where it is now, it's at 313. you know what it saw the last week, 309. to me, i would watch that more than anything. to me, this isn't b about necessarily picking up which yield above us is going to be the big yield. i think it's more about how firm it is relative to its ongoing continuing higher weakly closing yields, but i also thin

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i want to know, santelli, is 3 first or 2.6 first what do we get to first?" word stagflation. do you think we get to 3 or 2.6 first? and then we'll get to megan. >> first of all, joe, i have to compliment you the choices you give me are perfect. 2.63 last year's high. basically you're asking are we going to fall below last year's high before we test the one 3% close to the end of last year? i would go with b. we're going to test 3% before we have any significant type of test of 2.6 area as a matter of fact, we might be in the mode where we can test 3%, over shoot it because markets always get hot can you imagine the news when we hit it it's going to be front page. jump through it, then come back and over time test lower levels. 2.6 is the key below the market. >> megan, i'm ready for a 3/4 year we have some crappy number really, i'm going to skip january. that would be good to skip my birthday are you really looking for a 1% handle on gdp? >> just on q1 gdp. >> well, that's bad enough, isn't it >> yeah. >> we just had a couple of threes. >> is that seasonali

mike santelli has a look at whether the bulls are back to stay. >> is a five day rally in stocks moving a bit too fast or is this a recovery from t market correction? conventional wall street holds that steep pullbacks usually take weeks or more to recover after an initial bounce. thendex is slipping back to recent lows after a retest or a base building process. the pattern could unfold in coming weeks but the chance for a quicker rebound toward the late january highs can't be miss dismissed right now. the history says the fasr the drop the quicker it can be recouped. the recent tumble was the fastest from an all-time high in 80 years. there was also theeverse selling of funds on volatility being low. the tumble ultimately sent stocks lower than they would ve fallen. this seems largely out of way. finally, the rise in bond yields that spooked stocks has slowed allowing a higher range in response to strong growth. brthe frets over inflation, bond yields and high stock valuations but action of if past few weeks seems to show that even after such a sharp selloff thisull market will not go

pool finish their game already decided at the hop time whistle after the break and on my current santelli so not enough for a simple training drill for the guests. in a dying minutes there was still time for you and robin to score bryce six nil the final score. brian progressing to the semifinals with the us. and in tuesday's other cup clash also it also features six goals as they were close and drowned downed brakeman for two after extra time the guest took a fast two goal lead but later couzens julien punt levelled to the game with two first half goals well robbie and horace scored for the hosts deep into extra time to secure leverkusen their semifinal berth. and just for you a reminder of the top stories we're following for you here today on space x. has launched the world's most powerful rocket after a spectacular launch it's reusable boosters guided themselves back to earth and in a whimsical touch the jumbo spaceship carrying to cherry has destined to most past mars. you're watching news from berlin we have more for you at the top of the next hour and you can get all our stories a l

from santoli to santelli let's bring in rick santelli hi, rick >> hi, tyler you know, something interestings going on in the fixed income plarkts today. look at three 24-hour charts look at twos, now down four basis points look at tens, down two basis points 30s are unchanged. all right. that sounds a lot like curve steepening curve steepening with rates going down this is something we haven't seen a lot you think there's a fed implication there? in terms of maybe the fed's not going to hit the gas as hard at least that's the way traders seem to be trading, and finally, i normally talk about the dollar index. it's having an up day, but it's down well for the year, but year to date euro versus dollar might govern you clues investors like big numbers, and european economy, well, if we cough, they get pneumonia. nice round number, 125, the high on that chart. pay attention to that level on a closer basis at the end of the week michelle, back to you. >> we will, rick thanks so much let's talk more about today's market drop, where we go from here let's bring in michael and peter anderson, the ci

it's a pivot david and jim, back to you >> rick santelli. >> put it in common sense, it's not the endf the world he knows more about bonds than anyone that was fabulous. he's seen a lot of bond auctions. >> a lot of bond auctions. >> it was a little subpar, it's okay it's okay. a little bit of inflation, we want a little wage growth, david, we're getting wage growth c v cvs hourly wages s 11 bucks. >> we're going to take a break now. >> we have to talk about tesla too. figure out what you want to do for the mad dash coming up. >> grubhub. >> for maddash. >> we'll talk tesla around the bell a lot of other names to talk about and activism, a lot of nominating deadlines coming up want to get to that. this interesting retraction from burnstein on a piece involving qualcomm and broadcom. a lot more from stpo nine right here at the nyc after this this is a tomato you can track from farm, to pot, to jar, to table. and serve with confidence that it's safe. this is a diamond you can follow from mine to finger, and trust it never fell into the wrong hands. this is a shipment transferred two hun

carl, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much rick santelli.left-side of the screen, a live shot of the hill. the new federal reserve chairman jerome powell will deliver the semiannual monetary policy before the house of financial services elan moody is with us. help set up what we are seeing here >> he said he does not see it as weighing heavily on the economic outlook going forward. the job market is robust consumer spending is solid and he expects wages to rise at a faster rate as well. and twice powell mentions that both exports and fiscal policy being increasingly stimlative, those are the tailwinds for the economy. he also knows the housing market is slowly improving. on inflation, he characterized it as slow and stable. so appearing to suggest there that the pickup in the data really just underscores the fed's confidence to hit the 2% target rather than stoke the fears of overshooting down the road still, powell said the fed is monitoring inflation developments closely and the risk to the economic outlook is roughly balanced as for rate

the yield at 2.82% on the ten-year, rick santelli gave it a c-minus and that was a generous grade. >>peaking of rising interest rates. one of the big questions investors asked is what will the fed do next. steve liesman has some thoughts on that. steve. >> thanks. one of the reasons for heightened uncertainty in stocks is more uncertainty in bonds and there is play to figure out where rates are going and where the federal reserve is going let's talk about the supply issues the fed is reducing the balance sheet and will ramp up to nearly $600 billion in a year when it gets to that point government borrowing is set to rise, back up to a trillion dollars and you have the tax cuts along with greater retirement and medicare and medical expenses you have a different rate -- the rate will rise to reflect better economic growth. on the demand side, there is a place where treasuries compete with stocks and so investors are looking at that for some it is 2.7, for some 2.8 or as high as 3.5 or 4%. and the long rate feeds back on the fed. they set the short-term rate at the rate to continue econo

it feels like we have shifted to when rick santelli announces the results of the auctions and the cpii and wage data >> yes i think they'll be more careful as we learned last time what looked in the headline to be inflationary pressure and turned out to be the opposite it did not disperse down among the large portion of the working class. >> we just had a discussion about walmart and amazon, and albertsons and rite-aid. looking for inflation in consumer goods, it's tough >> it is competition is growing as you point out, here amazon now announcing that they're going to be in there traditionally if you went in to get a bottle of ibuprofen or something, you would pick up one or two other things in the store. now if you're not going to the store, sales are going to go down, not op nly of ibuprofen bt other things >> they're trying. >> technology stocks are doing fairly well, including amazon in the early going. up 1.4%. even facebook actually up after what has been recent weakness. the stock flat for the year versus many of its so-called -- the f.a.n.g. group, at least you can't even coun

i just think they have to settle down and the vix have to settle down >> lets get to rick santelli >>rning david. they're all up a little bit in yields off their highest yields of the day except for the 30-yr bond it is down two bases point you look at the one we chart there, we continue to nudge over the passes of the 3% this time, just shy of 290. literally 289 in change. looking at bund, they're really firm i guess if there is a lesson to be learned here. there was a time after the '87 crash where everyone was well into the notion that the best tech for falling economic market is buying treasuries and sovereigns, it is not so true these days for a variety of reasons and the toughness of these high yield ranges is evidence of that if you look at december 2013 on 10-yr, what i want you to see of the only single time outside of mid 20 and 11, earlier, that we closed at 3% the last day of 2013 the reason i find it important is so many eyes are focused there. we'll stop shorter and we'll go through it i expect that risk management is going to put some type of defense strategy in place s

. >> bob pisani, lets check in with rick santelli, good morning, rick. >> we still have michigan leftg to get busier all right, lets go to the scene of accident. markets definitely changing a little buy but not necessarily good in different ways many people have been simmering on this data, we are talking year over year hourerly earning. solid number unfortunately, you have to also look at the amount of hours worked this is the fly and the oinment. look at the 10-yr, we dropped down to 34.3 you don't want to get much below that the fact that we did drop a couple on both year over year and on a monthly basis in this regard, it diminishes, you work less and the extra income gets modified so the numbers on earnings are not nearly as juicy and everybody sighs when they start to research and digging down on this it is important. i may stop the incentive yields and anything can happen. zoom up to 283 next chart is about january, there was a bund chart in there as well. they responded in like and they are hovering since the best levels since 2015 september. there is your chart of 10-yr rate

. >>> over to rick santelli. >> thank you, kelly. i want to welcome bob parks.taking time we go back, started working at drexel in the early '80s you've seen a few crashes. you're the equity expert tale of two cities many are doing a forensic on volatility and how the markets were so dramatically effected. i think you can give the answer, a tale of two cities the vix being the common degree. >> the vix was the measure, the funds were unfortunate what the public was invested in, they lost most or all of their money. and the vix was the key to the index, but not what really happened. >> basically much of the money here was wiped out, but there's not a feedback loop to stocks. the vix is used as a benchmark by everybody they see vix go up, what do they do >> they want to sell stock. >> you think the bigger picture is the risk parody picture >> exactly. >> this is a strategy. how much is in this strategy >> risk parody for pension funds, at least $500 billion. >> what is that? >> you try to keep constant volatility to minimize risk, maximize returns. >> hold as much

this is eric marshall from hodges and rick santelli, welcome. starting with you, the rate moves this afternoon have been interesting, back up at 2.85, maybe headed back to the recent highs what do you think of it? >> well, 284 is the high yield close, not surprised if it came on messy friday with regard to equities, and that's high close going back, of course, to january of 2014, but i do think that we're going to usurp that by a basis point or two, by the way, up a handful of basis points now the auctions were not terrific, and i can understand why. nobody's going to catch the dropping knife when they could just go in the secondary market versus auction if they so choose listen, i think rates can be putting this away. there's a high every day people tell you what resistance is, and the way i look at it, the minute we surpass last year's high yield close of 2.63, the market has been going up, and it's going to test 3%. it's going to stop on a variety of stops along the tour, but keep focus we are going to get up there it's just a question of whe

we do earnings sfr "closing bell" exchange with the dow up 181 points jean us at post 9 and rick santellie in chicago. we have to come up a reason every day for some of the zigs and zags in the market some days are more difficult than others. this is one of those days. what's going on here >> it is i'm getting a little concerned we saw sell off on weakness into close on fundamental reasons yesterday it was the fmoc minutes, thinking they may be more aggressive than they stated they would be. i can't come up with a reason today, you're right, other than people are fading into the close on this market so, what i'm becoming concerned about is we may be shifting from a buy the dips to a sell the rallies kind of market that would change the persona and attitude of my behavior gate and may make it tough to get back to those all-time highs having said that, i'm still a believer we're working off the massive oversold conditions when we hit the lows on february 9th. people need to bear in mind we're less than two weeks on so we may have room to move i think the heightened volatility we got in that

we have mark travis from intrepid capital funds, and rick santelli from the cme in chicago.come. matt, first of all, is this an overreaction to powell's testimony? when his remarks first came out, people were saying, oh, he's the same as yellen, same old, same old and then he makes bullish comments about the economy and here we are. >> yesterday may have been an overreaction to see the market up over 400. >> in anticipation of it >> it may have been. the writing was kind of on the wall we saw the vix was a little changed despite the market being up today we get a 20 change in the vix. people are definitely overreacting to whatever word he says. >> rick, though, when you look at the ten-year, we've already documented this, when chairman powell was testifying today, hinting, at least the interpretation was he was hipting we could see four rate hikes. the ten-year shot up and that took it the equity market down what did you make of all that? >> i found it interesting that pretty much twos, fives, tens, 30s off on their own for the most part, but even early they were part of the

we're joined by etftrends.com ceo and editor and rick santelli checks in from the cme in chicago thanks to all of you for being here kenny, what steve has laid out would make it sound like there's nothing to be afraid of, higher rates, unless this is a ray dalio quote from his post today. we're past the top of the bond market does that make this time different? >> here's what happens i think the market is used to rising rates and the market was okay with it. we kept moving higher, moving higher whatever last week all of a sudden ignited that volatility trade and created the disaster that we saw over a couple of days, created massive dislocations in stocks i think the market is okay with rising rates it's pointing to a healthier u.s. economy therefore, i don't think the market's going to react so, so negatively when we see rates go up i think it will be a little headwind i think you might see the market back off you might count today as a dead cat bounce because it bounced a lot. after the technicals last week, the market still needs to thrash around just to find its chi, right? >> peopl

for the dollar, spent most of the week below 90, perked up a little today as you heard rick santelli it's destined to go much higher from here it's been anemic, as david darst point out. it still points to markets anticipating inflation as that dollar moves lower take a look at the oil, wti for the week, kind of a round trip started the week with a high of 61 and change and we're back to 61 and change today at 61.62, as a matter of fact, bertha coombs. the markets come back. equity market came back in a big way after bottoming out here a lot of questions about it's too much, too soon. >> yeah. it's kind of ironic. if you were in a rupp rupplestiltskins nam for two weeks. what's interesting is the change as we're coming back apple hadn't been the leader in terms of tech. it was about f.a.n.g this week it's apple, up 10% for the week and closed flat on the session. but we're really see people pour back in there. obviously, the warren buffett/good housekeeping seal of approval. >> that's warren buffett's biggest holding. >> take a look at the chip stocks that have gotten hit so hard lam