all right it's a very complex topic to analyze and here in studio i'm now joined by irwin collier from the john f. kennedy institute institute at the free university of berlin is very good to have you with us thank you for joining us this morning here as we are seeing this unfold right now let's just assume we will see these tariffs take effect tomorrow you will probably see some concern perhaps instability in the markets is this about the specific tariffs are now possibly being imposed or just the fear of this potential trade war unfold what we're seeing is ratcheting up this was expected this is expected it's been priced into everything. on the other hand if and when it happens that these tariffs actually go into effect then it's a new reality and the rest of our life starts with the next day and that will be the day where people are going to think will this go out of control will this be a slow sort of trade dispute that will get resolved one way or the other but it will unfold rather than you know this is not a trade war makes it sound like there's a cavalry that's going to come in