what goes into the models that lundin?we aren't surprised to see a strengthening in price. inventories reaching the five-year average and are seeing strong demand. opec,as led -- and the that despite the strong growth in the u.s. oil production. , in my view, is there to stay at this level. i also think in the future we will see further strengthening as a result of the low investment we have seen in the industry and that eventually will be seeing. that will probably trigger a strengthening of the oil price. anna: do you think there is an upside rather than down risk -- downside risk at the moment? alexandre: i am relatively optimistic and i see more upside than downside. especially in the second half of 2018 and 2019. anna: when we talked about the cost base, you gave us your strength in that area and the way you have managed to drive down those costs. when you look at the industry, you are not concerned that we return to cost spirals we saw in the decade running up to 2014? you think the industry will avoid that kind of s

on the front, i am also looking at lundin petroleum. trading higher.at 2018 cost may actually be higher than 2017, the bank did post the highest quarterly revenue yet under bill winters. phil winters the ceo also said it was an encouraging start to the year. the market reacting a little bit positively. guy: thank you very much indeed. let us return to asia. many factory pmi was an ominous slowdown. we also saw the chinese on the fixing currency. we have obviously got the ongoing story for the aluminum and steel tariffs. peter joins us, still with us, i should say. aboutinterview i have trade, everybody goes, we don't think it is going to happen, we think it is a fat till risk, but we don't think it is our central risk. point.that is at the guy: eyeing coming to the view that it is sort of happening. it is going to manifest itself in just little things come bank a mentally, they all add up. it is already happening. psychological, check out this chart that hillary put in our emailed today. it shows you lead time to get your raw materials. 67 days is how