they may be birdwatchers or just passing through on the cycle route. all those visitors are part of the success story of the old the valley biosphere reserve. as a teenager i spent lots of time here and dreamed it would be a nature reserve and being in charge of it now has fulfilled my dream. to. my next stop twenty five kilometers further on the bag along the elbow you'll find not only pristine nature but also industrial monuments. the sewing machine factory mitten back it was built in one thousand nine hundred three by the american singer company three thousand people used to work here. in a fan how does fit in bags industrial past contribute to its present charm. and if we take the sewing machine factory for instance to where we have industrial architecture that ranges from the early to the mid twentieth century. and most of the people who come here to know the name singer and say we really must take a look at this. and when they come most of them are impressed by the size of the complex and the different styles of architecture here. that interest p

i think this is a really interesting cycle for the chips.hey're in so many more devices beyond high tech things we normally associate i like when you have a day like this in the group. intel, everyone knows this but some of these other names is starting to look good. as long as they hold their longer term trend lines, there's no reason why you slhouldn't be looking at them today. >> you have got seagate, which allegedly they're pricing this secondary or whatever they're doing at about $56.50. that's the rumor i haven't seen it written down but seagate is under pressure. >> i mentioned the emerging markets earlier today. take a look at the ewz brazil is getting hit pretty -- >> hard. >> yes. >> that's why i would suggest when you're investing in the emerging markets, you're investing in the consumers, the strategies and not specific countries. you get a result like you get today. >> yeah, brazil, this is just a nightmare. they've got elections and all the rest that's going to be going on here. the fact that this is getting slam danced because

jonathan: how do we know where we are in the cycle? people talk about late cycle.t is late cycle to black rock, are we there? >> that is a challenging debate. economically, with an on a floating rate below the natural level of unemployment, that would suggest that we are later in the cycle. as we also know based on history, that does not change until there is something that disrupts it, and then it is subject to change a lot. asancial markets strike us reasonable valuations and fixed income, likely to get cheaper over the next couple of quarters but not a lot. risk assets are reasonably valued but the growth trajectory is the harder question. piling on fiscal policy at full employment, not exactly the policy prescription we would have suggested. we think it creates a larger risk of a boom-bust scenario where things may look good for the next several quarters and of the lack of organic replacement demand in years time could create deceleration risks. it is a tricky environment. the fixed income market is reasonably priced for the balance of outcomes. jonathan: i wan

bob: late cycle is a really challenging debate.y, with unemployment rates below the natural level of unemployment, that would suggest that we are later in the cycle. it as we also know based upon history, that does not change until something disrupts it and it is subject to change a lot. financial markets strike us as reasonable valuations in fixed income, likely to get a little cheaper. but not by a lot. risk assets are kind of reasonably valued, but the growth trajectory is the harder question. piling on fiscal policy at full employment is not exactly the prescription we would have suggested. it creates -- we think it creates a larger risk of kind of a boom-bust scenario where things look good for the next several quarters, then the lack of organic replacement demands could create this operation risked their we had is a tricky environment. but the fixed income market is reasonably priced for the balance of outcomes. jon: i want to wrap things up with tricky questions. the rapidfire round. three questions, three short answers to c

at any time during the cycle as a woman, i can know if i am fertile or not. as a couple we decide whether we want to achieve pregnancy or postpone it. >> the signs, we don't have to get into detail, but they have to do with the heat of your body, the fluids in your body. anything else? >> it's three signs. the cervical mucus, basal body temperature which is a temperature our bodies have when we are in resting mode. so when we wake up, the first thing we do is take the temperature. it was noticed i think by the end of the 1800s that the women's body temperature will rise by point 4 fahrenheit after ovulation. this was consistent among a group of women. >> i read that too. then more research in the '30s and '40s found other signs that made since. when pope paul wrote the letter much of the science was known. but the practice or systematic use of this as natural family planning was still being developed. is that right? >> yes. i read there were some studies released around the time. the temperature only methods were proving to be 99% effective. but i think it wa

cycle. one thing that you see right now is going into senior secured bank loan risks. adjusted basis, it's done incredibly well because it is at the top of the stack of corporate earnings. that is why it's done well relative to investment grade or high-yield. hard to argue going up in quality with a curve as flat as it is today. muchre not really getting of a compensation by taking on more duration risk, which is what would ultimately be the saving grace in a recessionary environment. the curve has gotten so flat, you can earn 2% and then the pickup for going further out is so minimal, but your duration risk you are taking on is so major. the question for investors is where the you believe there is an imminent recession, or if you believe the economic data, the policies of this administration, including tariffs, which is inflationary -- whether all of those things are good for bonds, or an environment in which cash could outperform bonds. krishna: let's not conflate duration risk with credit

really though they were fantastically wealthy at the time and what happened well america the media cycle in the corporate powers and politics a recent paper by luigi zingales of the university of chicago titled towards a political theory of the firm deals with the issue of rent seeking behavior by monopolistic firms through political influence neoclassical theory assumes that firms have no power of feel any different from ordinary market can try. acting thus fortiori no power to influence the rules of the game rights and galleys in the real world firms have such power i argue that the more firms have market power the more they have the ability and the need to gain political power thus market concentration can easily lead to a mid vicious circle where money is used to get political power and political power is used to make money so you obviously see that across america now you see these giant corporations spend enormous amounts on lobbyist but they spend even more enormous power amount on funding campaigns funding super pacs citizens united the supreme court allowed for these corporations

and this cycle is being played out all over again and so the question is is the. pentagon says it's impossible to know how many civilians died in last year's liberation of the syrian fifty years that's after amnesty international slams the u.s. led coalition in a new report alleging possible war crimes during the consul or with city. there's few worry in germany after the new u.s. ambassador is accused of lending support to far right groups in europe maybe he needs to be a little bit more careful this just in. a u.s. crossing swords with the u.s. so the newly imposed a trade tariffs promising counter measures from next month and calling the move by washington illegal. and u.s. senators consider a bill which would greatly expand the president's war powers even as constitutional experts testify about the dangers of the new legislation. that got more on those on other stories that are to dot com up next the marquee international look at today's financial scandals but the kaiser reports in the u.k. and ireland is the latest economic news on the boom bust. hey it's the

three hundred seventy six kilometers of cycle paths and twenty six really nature rocks and grievance essen is the third greenest city in germany. how can a city that was once a mining center be so green. people recognized early on that they needed places to relax and recover from their back breaking work in the mine. in the early twentieth century the city board wasteland in the south of s. and planted trees on it the city forest was created. the city gardeners even older in eighteen eighty one wealthy residents got together and donated a park to the city. it was the first public green space in the region. this park belongs to the village the former residence of the corp industrialist family at some point they fled the noise and dirt of the city and built themselves a house with a garden in the countryside actually more of a shatter it had two hundred. sixty nine rooms you can visit it and learn about the history of the corp steel company and family in the mansion's permanent exhibition . lake by the nice stretches out below the villa who do the work of river is dammed up here for ei

if you cycle just a few kilometers on the new route it's easy to see how much s.and has changed in the past few years the trip is full of contrasts. and also have the. downside is just c s n in the rural regions and maps don't show much for. no one suspects it's here even though s. news germany's third greenest city street isn't but after half an hour of cycling when we've left the city under on the railway line most people say they have never believed it why since the city. and cycling here takes you to some of the most interesting places in as an end the rural valley in almost no time . only sections of the bicycle autobahn have been completed so far and it will take a few years before you can pedal the entire one hundred kilometers but people are certainly enjoying what's already there. yes ambitious plans in the next few years the city wants to become even greener that's the specially true in northern s.c. with its working class districts and former industrial sites. i'm p.s. keeper is a landscape architect she ping this transformation. as a landscape architec

and there is a true two-year budget cycle. this shows you some historical revenues and expenditures. the break down here, by category, it shows you that the lion's share of the expenditures side of the budget should be in salaries and benefits for our staff. if yoyou can see modest growth l of those categories from the current fiscal year looking forward. more specifically with regard to staffing and fte growth, we do show a not insignificant growth and f.t.e. in this upcoming budget. and that is entirely really within the transit division. with offset on what reductions we've made and other divisions, and this is really representing the core of what we are proposing in this budget which is about more you need less crowding, but also to prepare ourselves for future demands. so included in this, are the start up of the central subway operations, halfway through the second fiscal year, more new light rail vehicles in service. the service plan that goes into effect this coming summer adds 22 light rail vehicles to the service pla

the cycle it's an endless endless cycle and there needs to be men and women who train with honor and integrity who are willing to go on to the battlefield and interact with humans because that's actually how battles are prevented usually we had people posturing one another back in world war two people didn't fire to kill one another only twenty percent people did today in today's conflict we have a ninety five percent fire and kill rate and we wonder why we have people with psychological the mental problems that are coming back from home or from war to home and killing themselves so this is just going to make it even worse now you have described the use of drones as cowardly action i kept of you just in warfare arrests as honorable you can hardly describe homemade to i tax or children being recruited to carry them out on our wall right when she backed drones knowing your enemy what resorts to anything damage or kill your soldiers. just because our enemy does something dishonorable doesn't mean that we need to continue being dishonorable ourselves this is actually why codes of conduct

history and many of us don't but they are in our news today because we have something called the made cycle happening here in america but first remember they are the house and the d.c. the were in the republic of florence they ruled the republic of florence and then expanded their power across europe they installed family members and as like katherine did in france the queen of france the pope's in italy. you know they became powerful in the first half of the fifteenth century because they were banking family who were first to really use the power of double entry bookkeeping so they were the ones that became very powerful from that which is interesting in today when we have big queen and triple entry bookkeeping so they became powerful through that they brought us the likes they were patronage of the arts they had some from davinci to raphael they financed these guys so you know they did bring us some good stuff but a warning on it is coming up really they were fantastically wealthy at the time and what happened then well america the media cycle in the corporate powers and politics a recent

peter believes that glass marys like rebecca fuel a cycle of accusations, recriminations and violence realise what an industry sorcery accusations is. but after spending time in the country, i still don't understand why there are so few prosecutions when everyone knows what is happening. this is the grave here? 0k. the answer might lie in tribal violence. nougai's brother was accused of sorcery and tortured to death by a mob. it sparked days of vicious fighting between villages. i begin to understand how one sanguma death can lead to more violence as people take justice into their own hands. there used to be about 28 houses. after nougai's brother was accused of being a sorcerer and murdered, the other tribe came in and they burned all the houses to the ground. and members from this community went to that tribe's area and also burnt down some of the houses in the community as well. so what is increasingly clear is that when there is one sorcery accusation, there is a massive cycle of violence afterwards. nougai is so afraid of further violence that even though he knows the identity of

we know how to invest good and bad cycles are right now, we think the cycles are good. we are cautious. we don't think it will go on forever. erik: what are you doing less of today than you would have five years ago? david: probably we are not putting as much debt on the deals as we were many years ago. have lessuyout feels debt percentagewise than they did before. in the early days of buyouts, you have 5% or 10% equity and 90% debt. was 95%us still in 1989 debt or today, closer to 40%. some cases more than that. the deals are much better equipped ties -- equity ties. erik: is that a change from five years ago? david: it is. i think the debt is very favorable. it has no covenants at all. i would say before the great recession, rapidly about some new percent of the deals -- probably about 70% of the deals were deals about restriction. now some is -- now 70% has less. julia: that was david rubenstein, cochairman of the carlyle group speaking to erik schatzker at the aspen ideas festival. you can hear lots more from david on the david rubenstein show, or two p conversation

that likeair to say any other cycle, when you get later into a cycle of capital region and capital formationion, you get reaching activity on the part of banks and other lending institutions. the 1999-2000 time leading into 2001 and in a major way in 2005-2007 and 2008. in this cycle, much slower to build to a level of access but no doubt there are some things on the margin to be concerned about. erik: what do you see? jamie: a tremendous flow of capital coming, a lot of offshore capital coming into the u.s. market, quantitative easing has been part of the money coming out of europe and asia. looking for yields but cannot find it and it ends up in the u.s. where it expresses itself and leads to activity is in the new issue market. the new issue and leverage loans and high yields. and some extent in investment grade. for investment funds tuesday invested and keep their cash balances down, they have to keep buying new issue and that is ere the terms get squeezed because the buy side accounts are forced to say, i do not like the terms but have to buy it anyway here -- anyway. triple b'sexplosio

so, what's increasingly clear is that when there is one sorcery accusation, there isjust a massive cycle he is so afraid of further violence that even though he knows the identity of the killers, he will not turn them over to the police. my time in the country has made me see how it's more peacekeeping than policing. so, i'm here in the capital, port moresby, to find out what the government is doing to stop the violence. in 2015, the authorities introduced the sorcery national action plan. but there's not been much progress. we haven't actually fully implemented that plan yet. we brought in appropriate legal changes. we have heightened the seriousness of sorcery related killing to a capital crime, with the death penalty being mandatory. but up to now we have not successfully prosecuted one sorcery related accusation. having been on the ground in chimbu, one of the things that struck me was that there's a cycle of violence. surely, by introducing capital punishment, that willjust spiral the cycle of violence even more, because one person will die, another person will die, and then there w

the cycle comes and goes.t is a good formula for preserving and creating value to identify resilient businesses. let's talk about design businesses, the m&a around comcast that is not perhaps offering enough for the likes to sell assets for 20% for fox. i know it is one of your key holdings, comcast. would you look within the communication -- where do you look within the communications sector? matthew: we have been an owner in comcast for years. it is a smaller position than it used to be in our portfolio. the real value has been that they control the pipeline many of the markets. bandwidth is a scarce resource in an environment where data flows are growing, and that has given of substantial earnings power. to be honest with you we are not a huge fan of proposed m&a in the content space. we have seen a lot of growth in content capital investment throughout the united states come with new players coming into the markets and existing players doubling down. that is a competitive dynamic that is more of a worry th

and where we are in this particular cycle.hank you so much. >> there have been reports you are looking to raise another stress fund. we have seen a lot of distress managers putting the places that pieces in place. about the duration of the next stress cycle? >> i can't talk about funds. generally speaking, it moves us to raise money in benign environments in anticipation of the next cycle rather than scrambling to raise capital. >> perhaps you are looking for the next cycle to begin pretty soon. history theok at average time between recessions is 63 months. the longest was in the 1990's. we are at 108 months. that doesn't mean we will have a recession in two years but it relates to the business cycle. the economy is still sick with all. one of the things that interests us, we have been in such a low interest rate. something more akin to 01 and 02. i think we saw a glimpse of this . 70% of the stress of the high-yield market. the distress ratio, it got up to 40%. the economy was growing. what happens if we are actually economic

but we're just not seeing evidence of that this cycle. there is not enough money on that kind of far left kind of candidates, and it's just unclear if those kind of insurgent left candidates are going to make a difference here. >> just to give you a sense of the numbers, 1,048,000-plus votes for dianne feinstein, 284,158 for kevin de leon. >> right, and you'll hear that voters are looking for a sense of stability. feinstein has been there sin the 1990s, and especially in a prey volatile political climate, she's kinof the candidate that a lot of votersa >> n only in california, but these other primaries, was this about politics when it comes to issues or was this about politics when it comes to president trump? >> so, i would argue more on the side of president trump at this point, in these elections.so, w path thef democrati majority, are a bunch of districts that demographically, based on recent voting history, should be trending in the democratic zone. and so, you would think that especially given enthusiasm from president trump's win,

we are getting later in the cycle of escalation.: joining us now is our china correspondent tom mackenzie. how does china plan to respond to this latest tariff salvo from donald trump? it has limited options compared to the u.s. when it comes to tariffs. tom: the scales are tilted in the u.s. favor when it comes to tariffs because the u.s. imports with of goodslion from china versus $150 billion if you go with the imf number on u.s. exports to china. they cannot go toe to tell with the u.s. when it comes to tariffs. they may increase the duties they propose regarding the first $50 billion worth of retaliatory measures. they propose tariffs of 25% or duties up 25% and those could be increased. other measures, we are for from businesses in china, involve unofficial measures. for example, stepping up inspections imports and delaying licensing, putting hurdles in place for u.s. businesses operating in the chinese market to try to pressure them and pressure their bottom line. some of the measures are starting to take effect and people ar

at the time he was the only one to denounce doping in cycling and early whistleblower. he left the professional the main still continues to contest the v t frontally championship at the age of. crystal for a song has not forgotten the race for substances between the tour de france competitors. that there are still puzzles that i want to point it will last us in about our top up almost twenty yards of all perfectly or come. up with us it's. a long. shot if you think of it i mean you're standing. up to raise it up with will put you fully. they also need to say it is a keeper committed in way and. you know when you do nearly coming in when you are. given your own core they came up a computer is there for the well. if i could carry them for they don't say it on your google compared to what it is on the keep of the committee. i want to put you in as who got everything given in equipping me all in one unit that when you sent it to the core within a system no longer and what i and mark would do you move into this. was. the. to the army of civilian poker lives just to to do the

the cycle will end. about creditock exposure. pop into the bloomberg terminal. we have this chart titled heading for the exit. money is pouring out of etf's tracking investment-grade credit. you guys are under waiting high yields. let's talk about this risk reward view you have got. evan: sure. we have seen spreads compress a tremendous amount. corporate leverage is near historical highs. so this makes sense when you look at how well the economy is doing. corporate earnings are healthy. a lot of these companies are locked into low rates. we think the risk reward here is not that attractive, especially, like to use it as a hedge. you mentioned our point about we don't know when this cycle is going to end. because of that uncertainty, we want to be hedged. we are overweight equities, but we want to hedge that against another risky asset. ramy: thanks very much for your analysis. thank you. coming up on "daybreak asia," tech stocks in the u.s. as we have been talking about are on a market 18 rally, but how

. >> in the business cycle, most people tend to agree we're getting towards the end of the business cyclelate cycle growth in the united states -- does that mean perhaps this time you want to start switching away from cyclicals into defensives >> first of all, we clearly are in a late-cycle environment. we're not at the end of the cycle. identifying the end of the psychle is a thankless task. clearly, the psychle is nine years. we're towards the end of the cycle. but we continue to favor equities and particularly u.s. equities historically they have rose about 20% in the latter part of the cycle. >> we just saw the numbers for some of the chinese indices this morning, i guess, closing out the day there. from the chinese perspective, their tech sector isy outperformed in terms of earnings i wonder do you have concerns about that performance continuing given what we hear from the trump administration about trying to restrict chinese firms from getting access to u.s. technology firms. >> the big chinese tech firms that are striving. er formans in the markets at that moment aren't intent on t

we talk about shale is being fast cycle. the infrastructure is not fast cycle.kes a long time to build type -- pipelines. i think that will impede the arel of shale because they answerable to shareholders. where those oil prices are trading at a significant discount, that is going to impede their ability to grow. we imagine that those discounts will remain in place and when it comes to trade, if china imposes tariffs on u.s. crude oil, it will find other markets. it might have to take on itself little more of a discount. >> it's not a question of how much. thank you for joining us. previewing what is likely to be a contentious opec meeting. catch up on the key analysis that you want to save those charts for your future reference as well. ♪ this is bloomberg. take a look at that croatia and france through australia and argentina just hanging on. peru is out. russia 2018. bloomberg subscribers can check out the latest results at w cu p go. you can see how our colleagues and anchors are faring in those predictions. >> there is some relief in store for the long-suff

haidi: what are the factors that prolong or quicken us into the end of the cycle?n't know if the tariffs will be deflationary or inflationary, whether oil will exacerbate. what is the scenario? matt: every cycle since world war ii, the fed has to hike more aggressively than it thinks. there is a buildup of capacity in the u.s. economy, and that combined with higher interest rates since the u.s. economy into recession. there are a couple things which suggests there could be more runway in the cycle and that is the fed has been gradual and cautious in the tightening cycle and also because we have really not had investment in the u.s. economy outside shale for the best part of eight years, we are not getting the buildup of traditional capacity access -- excess. i don't think tried -- trade will be a factor. it is so strong. it comes back to the fed. it comes back to u.s. inflation, and both of those are fairly benign. ramy: in terms of the tightening cycle -- we were talking with kathleen hays about maybe another one or two rate hikes. wage growth is the most importan