adp private payrolls, this is going followed by the job's report out tomorrow.t at home, 195,000 jobs added last month, unemployment at 3.8%. despite tariff worries we have market looking optimistic this morning. do you think this will give markets, investors more to cheer about? >> well, could, dagen. one of the big e problems the tariff situation tomorrow whether they come through with that investors would look at that differently than employment market right now. dagen: last job's report 2 hours before last month's report came out. president trump tweeted that he was looking forward numbers. such a dangerous precedent. mitch and morgan, i want to get your reaction to this, now we are in a situation where people will be watching if president trump tweets about it. if he doesn't tweet about it is it a bad sign and if he doesn't is he giving too much away? >> yeah, that's sort of wearing emotions on at least for better or worse. i would be looking whether the president will tweet or not. ill imagine he's likely going to step away from tweeting about the job's nu

. >>> and an early read on jobs friday we'll bring you the adp private payroll report at 8:15 a.m.astern time stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc it brings your business up to speed, doing more with systems you have in place. it can bring all your apps to life and run them within your data center. it is... the ibm cloud private. the cloud that's built for all your apps. ai ready. secure to the core. the ibm cloud is the cloud for smarter business. secure to the core. yes or no?gin. do you want the same tools and seamless experience across web and tablet? do you want $4.95 commissions for stocks, $0.50 options contracts? $1.50 futures contracts? what about a dedicated service team of trading specialists? did you say yes? good, then it's time for power e*trade. the platform, price and service that gives you the edge you need. looks like we have a couple seconds left. let's do some card twirling twirling cards e*trade. the original place to invest online. >>> welcome back to "squawk box. the dow looking to be higher by 139 points s&p looking to add about 13 1/2. we have t

there was discussion of the labor shortage which we saw in the adp jobs report showing more job openingsn eligible workers to fill them. finally, members revisited the inea of cha the language in these statements on policy from accommodative to neral, though that one is likely coming. for "nightly business report," i'm diana olick in >>washington as we mentioned earlier, stocks rose today led by techhelogy and's one group within tech that's getting a lot of attention and that would be the semiconductors and bob pisani explains why the sector along with two others are in focus on wall right now. >>> the stocks staged an impressive comack today though on very light trading volume which is what you might expect on a holiday-shortened week, but looking back over the last couple of week, thelarkets overake on a notably defensive tone amid the rising trade tensions and the s&p has been rangebound stuck i a range of 2700 to 2750. it's not showing signs o breaking out just yet though today it was encouraging and the strength stems from defensive groups such as utilities and telecom and real esta

wed date latest data is for the adp employment report. auto sales are out as well. tesla, sprint and the carlisle group. turning to earnings we have cvs, and kellogg reporting earning. tune in to "mornings with maria" at eight:00 a.m. eastern when we identify where the jobs are today. i hope you will join us. we'll talk private equity investing today. my exclusive interview on "mornings with maria" with vice president mike pence. the president tweeted with the federal reserve. if the economy is so great where not raise -- why not raise interest rates? >> we respect the federal reserve. but what we don't want to see happen goin going forward. we don't want policies that diminish the tremendous energy we have in this economy today. maria: you can see my exclusive interview with the vice president monday at 6:00 a.m. thanks for >> i'm bob massi. for 35 years, i've been practicing law and living in las vegas, ground zero for the american real-estate crisis. but it wasn't just vegas that was hit hard. lives were destroyed from coast to coast as the economy tanked. now, i

let's go to paul in pennsylvania, please paul >> caller: yes, sir, i have a bunch of adp stock it's been doing very very well i want to know if it's time to get out of it because i'm afraid it may take a dump >> hey, adp is terrific. we're not going to get rid of that stock as a matter of fact, if there's any weakness, call me a buyer. i would do it less scatter logically. let's call it what it is there are a lot of cheap stocks and some expensive ones. that's that. there are some including some you may have overlooked in the trade war tie-up, taking a radical approach to treating mental health diseases, i think is a very profitable one utilities are picking up steam as of late and one is declining here what's behind that move? i'm talking to the ceo of the energy company, one of the top five in the country. ♪ you shouldn't be rushed into booking a hotel. with expedia's add-on advantage, booking a flight unlocks discounts on select hotels until the day you leave for your trip. add-on advantage. only when you book with expedia. add-on advantage. i love you, basement bathroom of solitude,

layoffs were still near the lowest level in decades though and then payroll process or adp reporting that businesses added 17 7,000 jobs for the month of june. now that is a sign of another strong employment increase possibly coming in tomorrow, though we debate that all the time. the adp number the ism non- manufacturing index which tracks industries like healthcare, finance, construction, that rose to 59.1 in june from 58.6 in may so any number above 50 does indicate expansion and we had that reading for several months now and just in the last hour we got the fed minutes were released. most of the participants saying trade uncertainty could intensify and hurt business sentiment and investment so what can we expect tomorrow with the jobs report what should investors be watching into this weekend let's get to our flow show traders at the new york stock exchange and the cme troop peter, you know, what's interesting is the fed minutes there was a lot of talk about trade in this most recent meeting, but still kind of unknowns from the fed governors to what this will mean long term >> yo

and making these appearances and just focus on doing his job. >> so the last public fight he had with adp year he's taken positions or disclosed positions in a few companies namely most recently lowe's which, so far, we haven't seen much in the way of kind of public, you know, debate with the company. utx, same thing. we don't exactly know what his hopes are. i'm told that they haven't actually decided whether or not to make anything public with regards to any strategy changes. you see him take a step back and his portfolio now trurns can be attributed to just really good stock pick pornography >> absolutely no way to look at six months worth of performance and be able to figure out what the next six months or one year or two years will be for a discretionary manager. if you're pouring fresh money into this thing you're make decision based on your gut and your opinion of him personally and whether he's learned certain lessons or some kind of nostalgia for big winners. there's no evidence to make this decision >> from an asset allocation standpoint -- first you have to credit what he has d

. >> rick, we had adp this morning, a little soft ism a little stronger than expected. but which has had a big effect on bond markets? >> i don't think either of them did. yes, even though the ism was soft on expectations, we gained on the divisions it was virtually a lost the nonmanufacturing in ism was solid, second to january's read compact to the highest level well since 20 years -- that's how far back my database goes. as a matter of fact as you look up at the board it's really kind of shocking. we're at 256 n two year it's highest yield close was 258, two base points away. and you look at 30-year bonds they're minus one and they're unchanged. flattening to 2007 comps tens minus twos, 30 minus fives. i guess the real story is if the feds decide they're going to have another 25 points basis increase i would be shocked if there aren't changes on the curves i think it's more of a data hiccup globally on growth on the lung end also i love that wall street journal story. we all think that all the turnstiles on buying on long maturities are closing down. more supply, we'

we have some adp data. david: the adp research institute says the u.s.00 jobs in june, a precursor to the nonfarm payrolls tomorrow. it is not always perfectly reliable. julia: a touch softer than anticipated, 190,000. it has been caps, about dollar strength in the relative benefits of the tax overhaul, so how relevant is historical valuations when you put it in the perspective of other things that have contributed to the rally? >> to be clear, the dollar really has been a very driving force in this whole thing. we were pretty early, end of february, beginning of march, in looking for the reasons for the dollar rally, which materialized. but as we look at it here, we have had a massive move in the dollar. we do not think dollar strength is a theme that is likely to continue playing out. , we have a chart of the europeans a price index, and it has been dropping the entire time during the dollar's rally and has begun to climb once again. that plays back into the commentary from the ecb this morning. so we do not think the dollar is going to be a dragging f

we saw adp report came out in last hour. 177,000 private sector job added in june and i dug into numbers sol really, really good stuff there you're going to appreciate and, of course, tomorrow we get official government number from bureau of labor statistics plus, about the tariff war with china goes into effect on midnight china vowses to retaliate i say that they already did, in fact, micron on tuesday banned from selling products in china by chinese court that says it violated of one of its rivals. says that company has been technology for years wait until you hear that story and belittle over the supreme court no, ma'am e knee president is report drink narrowed its choices down to three front runners but there could be a dark horse. senator mike lee has spoken with the president about a possible anonymous and ted cruz is the right guy for the job we're talking to senator lee former chief of staff later in the show. so another busy day for politics extremely busy day for your money. but we've got it all covered "varney & company" starts right now. ♪ enough so happy for tours plan to v

let's check in on the markets, dow in the green more than 180 growth rally, adp added business added 177,000 jobs in the month of june. nike knoll on the floor -- nicole on the floor of the new york stock exchange. reporter: dow gained 182. nasdaq up 1 .1%, and federal open market committee on pace for rate hikes, we saw movement in energy and oil has president trump tweeted his concerns about opec monopoly, up about 60 sinces year-over-year. and will it happen. very hot, could be large of the ipo. and reports of it stalled and company is not making any comment. >> thank you. >> president obama made speak. moments away. fox business will bring you there live when the president arrives in great falls. >> coming up, concern over smart tv vacuuming people's data right out of their living room, mark zuckerberg's facebook apologizes for flagging a declaration of independents post as hate speech. >> first, t the president is pl3 day visit to the u.k. the brexit architect nigel is here with us. retail. under pressure like never before. and it's connected technology that's moving companies f

we did see an employment report from adp it was a little bit light but the big number comes tomorrow. see what the president tweets. looking forward to that. becky will be back "squawk on the street" is next ♪ welcome back ♪ your dreams were your ticket out ♪ ♪ welcome back to that same old place ♪ >> good morning and welcome to "squawk on the street. i'm scott wapner with jim cramer live from the new york stock exchange futures up for this day in the markets. looks like a good one off the open, as well. dow opened higher by just about 170 points s&p would be up by 17. nasdaq by 50 so a good day shaping up on wall street take a look at what's taking place over in european markets obviously trade remains front and center it's green all across the board, whether it's germany, france, over in england, italy or spain. the 10-year note yield dipped. a lot of focus there as well, the spread between the 2 and 10s. there is the 10-year note yield, 2.85 wti was at a little touch below that now but up by .5% >>> we start with the energy and tech boost stock futures pointing to a strong rally at

. >> yesterday the adp number, there was some excecommentary t they couldn't find people. think the devil in the details of the report should be interesting. >> is the job market full? do we need to open up the job market to people with felony convictions, some of these non-violent ooffenders, get them back into the market >> you're saying convictions you don't mean arrested but not -- you mean -- >> i'm saying -- >> i know. when people look at you, you have ever been arrested for anything arrested or convicted. bad joke never mind if it is tight, then we start looking for wage gains which would be good. the economy and corporations are doing well enough for what we've been wishing for all this time without worrying about profit margins, wage price spirals, we could welcome some wage gains. the articles have been written maybe we start to see that as well you know it's going to be the fourth straight week where the dow was down after yesterday, in the face of this trade stuff, the dow managed to go up almost 200 points today we'll see. we're down to three or four -- >> i g

he wreets, "are you surprised with adp trading $137. is it fair value over valued or still undervalued? of course, we know your past service on the board there and your history with that company >> well, my point when they were under attack was that this was a fabulously run company this was a record that almost is unparalleled in american history, and the company -- a growth of 17% or 18% over 50 or 60 years they earn 35% in equity. they return about 6% of earnings with forward dividends great company. i have to look at the numbers recently like i said, i made a big mistake for the board. i gave all my stock to charity i should have given cash and kept the stock i have a very high regard. it's a great company absolutely have challenges like most companies, but you didn't get to where they got in the business world without them being a student. they understand their challenges and they're dealing with them. i'm not prepared to render an opinion when i'm not current on the numbers. >> lee, as always, thank you so much for being here. >>

look at the adp report below expectations did you see the ten year yield it went straight down.e should be getting a rally in banks now. instead we had a rally for three minutes at the open and sold banks right into it. many of the big regional banks are essentially flat this morning. they've been dramatically oversold in the last few weeks we should be getting some kind of a bounce at this point and we're not getting it >> something we do have is breaking data on crude >> reporter: you can see crude oil prices are sliding after this report. the doe saying we have to build 1.25 billion barrels of oil. you expect to see steeper moves either way as we were heading in to the fourth of july holiday. you actually expect to see those draws be steeper 10.9 billion barrels a day that's flat week on week we're trading at 73.22 remember the fourth of july is the peak of the driving season we started selling off in terms of pricing tuesday afternoon going into that holiday. a lot of traders told me we thought we saw peak pricing when we hit 75 and expect us to come off from those levels. b

american businesses added 177 workers in june, according to a survey from adp. payroll saw an increase ball health and service solve the strongest gain. the government will release its monthly employment report tomorrow. global news 24 hours a day powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. up, a former u.s. commerce secretary and kellogg ceo discusses how businesses should operate on the eve of u.s. and chinese tariffs taking effect. this is bloomberg. scarlet: this is bloomberg markets. taylor: we are counting down to a critical midnight deadline. beijing has promised to retaliate. how should businesses adjust? we spoke to carlos. >> it is hard to see how we are going to stop something that is going to happen in the next 24 hours. i don't see a catalyst to stop that. to some extent you have to start the fight to realize what a bad idea it is and then have both parties step back a bit. this friday we are going to get slapped with tariffs on commodities. this is a big hit. we have a surplus of cheese. a surplus of soybeans. it i

adam: american businesses added 177,000 workers in june, according to payroll processor adp. hiring was strongest in the health, leisure and hospitality sectors but small businesses hired workers at a slower pace for the second straight month. >>> long-term mortgage rates falling this week with the average rate on a 30-year mortgage dropping to 4.52%. that is according to freddie mac. rates have declined in five of the last six weeks. >>> breaking right now, stocks are trading higher after the release of the fed minutes showing officials are committed to gradually raising interest rates despite the increasing risk of a trade war. nicole petallides remains live for us at the stock exchange with the latest. it has been up, down, but seems to found a place to be happy in triple digits, nicole. >> this is somewhat of a shortened week. you might see some volatility. we got in the fed minutes within this hour. the traders are discussing what the federal open market committee will actually do. the idea we see two rate hikes. we're on tap to do that in september. the question whether

in this holiday shortened week, we had a deeply -- adp employment change and do any of those give uswhat the june jobs and intricacies of the report might look like? >> not really. they are all indicators that suggest the labor market is relatively healthy. given that the range of numbers and possibilities for an accurate number is about 100,000 wide, they will not give you the exact figure. we'll have a reason to think of growth has slowed. on the chart you showed, the important numbers were the two on about -- two on the bottom. with unemployment as low as it is, companies will have to pay up forevermore scare workers -- scarce workers. we see wages rise in that suggests inflation to gina fed's mind about how fast and moves, or if it does not slow the fed down because they want to try to produce more wage gains. scarlet: mike brought us a chart that shows as the unemployed rate falls, the wage growth is approaching the 3% early hasn't moved up the way we you might think. joe: this is the key thing mike close to 3.7% as we moved it a little bit rounding down. at what point do econom

adp and moody's analytics predict employers added 177,000 jobs in june.rect, it would be the fourth straight month that job growth was less than 200,000 jobs a month. analysts say that's because businesses are now actually struggling to find enough new workers, which is why the president's efforts to cut legal immigration are wrong headed. he believes that low skilled foreign workers are costing american jobs and wages. that is simply not true. nevertheless detractors argue that an influx of immigrants means a loss of jobs for native-born workers. i want to take a closer look at this. the united states currently has 6.7 million job openings and it has just 6.4 million available workers to fill those job openings. the problem here is that the available workers either aren't properly trained for the open jobs or they don't live close to where those jobs are. if this trending continues, it may indicate, it likely indicates that we need more immigration into america, not less. here's another complicating factor. the number of births in the united states dropp

. >> so what did the -- what did you glean from the adp report yesterday?185 if you were writing an article summarizing that, would you say today's adp report badly missed expectations >> no. >> okay. >> i mean -- >> what if you were in -- i know, i know, i know but what if you were interested in click bait? >> i don't write a lot for the -- anyway. that's another story i withdraw the comment >> you withdraw the comment. sustained. i withdraw the question. >> did somebody do that, joe >> i withdraw the question let's move on. >> will you tell me at the break if somebody -- >> yes, i will you can imagine. >> we're talking about 135, 140 million employed americans >> steve, it's a reason i brought it up -- which i wish i hadn't anyway, let's move on. andrew >>> okay i want to continue our discussion about today's big jobs number. anthony chen is here from chase. good morning >> good morning. >> anthony, what are you expecting today? >> i'm looking for about 175,000. i'm looking for the unemployment rate to stay unchanged. >> is that exciting to you >> i think

markets move on every rumor coming out on trade that we hear but also the jobs data. 177,000 print today, adp print. below 190,000 expected. but overall economy is doing very well. 3.8% unemployment is great. we're embarking on second-quarter earnings starting here in a week or two. so i think in july, it would be tough to tell investors to go out and buy this market. i don't want to be caught short either. until i see what happens with trade. neil: i don't either. eliza, we were told last week by commerce secretary wilbur ross that the president isn't going to judge what moves he makes on trade or concessions based on the stock market but he is very attuned to it. i wonder if it goes to a sustained fall, not today, we're at session highs, he is paying more attention to it than we know, what do you think? >> with president trump we never know what president trump is going to do until he does it. that is a. when the stock market is high, he lets people know. i imagine he won't be saying publicly if it drops. he is a businessman. i think he is very aware of what the results and how this goes fo

those adp numbers didn't help this morning intel, semi helping out. johnson & johnson, defensive, merck, procter & gamble. that's fine but what happened to all those names we use as proxies for global growth in the trade war issues, boeing is doing nothing. the financials are doing nothing. travelers is down today. goldman sachs is basically flat. you see what i mean. those trade names, those concerns about yield curve stories, all weighing on the markets. you want to look at another global growth dollar story, look what's been going on with the agricultural stocks. metal commodities, dbb is what you want to look at here, near a 52-week low. an even worse one, dba basket of agricultural it's been trading ten years. i don't think it's ever been at 17 and change. maybe once, but you get the point here it's really weighing on things where are we it's been defensive. we're in a trading range, 2700 to 2750. it's been choppy, uneven a lot of intraday reversals the last few weeks utilities and reits as your leadership group, we don't want that better balance

because a lot of people are confused about what's going to happen there adp on wednesday gives a curtain the stage for a september rate hike. jobless claims expected to raise by a quarter point jobs report on friday. and the trade deficit along with ism services >> you want to react to the treasury secretary over the weekend say 3% sustainable for four to five years >> again, i think it's overstated but i don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. there's an economic angle. as i've said a lot, i think raising underlying potential growth from what is 1.8% to somewhere between 2.5% to 3% is possible if you get a sustained capital investment my big question is about the consumer what you had -- if you look at the breakdown of gdp, have this 4% number. i do not know if that is a one off thing from the tax cut there goes the proeblgbabilitier the fed. >> that's one heck of a prolonged cycle. >> it would be a big deal for revenue, big deal for u.s. economic growth, and people's lives if we could get this upward shift in growth trouble is, you cannot tell. there's two things that go into