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Aug 10, 2018
08/18
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let's welcome carl riccadonna.gop strategist earlier talking about how a solid economy is going to help the republican party. that seems to be the key messaging right now. at the same time you get these youation numbers and realize wages are getting eroded. people are having to pay more, so are they really going to feel the boost in the economy? carl: great question, and certainly relevant as we head into the midterms. if you look at what households , householdsing are in a very good spot at the moment. they are not necessarily optimistic about the future, but the assessment of present conditions is very high, and typically when those assessments are at levels like this, it does favor the incumbents, regardless of party. i don't think that this inflation sentiment really is factoring into their overall assessment at this point in time. that could change, but not at the moment. shery: what about the corporate in cpr --for reasons you got? carl: thiscarl: resulted from it rounding up 2%. i suspect this is the high wa
let's welcome carl riccadonna.gop strategist earlier talking about how a solid economy is going to help the republican party. that seems to be the key messaging right now. at the same time you get these youation numbers and realize wages are getting eroded. people are having to pay more, so are they really going to feel the boost in the economy? carl: great question, and certainly relevant as we head into the midterms. if you look at what households , householdsing are in a very good spot at...
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Aug 3, 2018
08/18
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for bloomberg first take, we are joined by carl riccadonna and sarah ponczek. this is sort of the consensus. nonfarm payroll, the consensus is $193,000. you are? carl: $223,000. david: they say it is going to take down to 3.9%. carl: 4.8%. i think we are at a point where we will see more legal pressures -- more labor pressures, enticement to draw workers back into the labor market. as labor force participation edges higher, that will slow the dissent in the unemployment rate. that's why we saw it pick up in the june report, the good kind of increase which met more people are looking for jobs. agreesi think everyone -- will be at 2.7%. carl: just one notch below the high for the cycle. it doesn't feel like a very pivotal jobs report, right? sarah, what are you hearing from market participants? this setup has been pretty benign going into this. sarah: this is more of the same. i feel like a broken record saying this, but the -- is important here. the consensus is two .7%. if we somehow get a number above that, 3% or so, we could be going through 3% again on the 10
for bloomberg first take, we are joined by carl riccadonna and sarah ponczek. this is sort of the consensus. nonfarm payroll, the consensus is $193,000. you are? carl: $223,000. david: they say it is going to take down to 3.9%. carl: 4.8%. i think we are at a point where we will see more legal pressures -- more labor pressures, enticement to draw workers back into the labor market. as labor force participation edges higher, that will slow the dissent in the unemployment rate. that's why we saw...
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Aug 3, 2018
08/18
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we welcome stephen stanley and carl riccadonna. great to have both of you let us. want to start with carl. the job number strength continues. was this a near-perfect report in terms of what it says about the u.s. economy? carl: it certainly looks encouraging. income growth is moderate. wage inflation is running steady. we can expect more of the same for a good while longer as economists are sitting around and watching for the sign that finally shows the labor market running out of slack and starting to generate more significant labor inflation. we are not there yet. everything can continue along in a goldilocks scenario with the fed moving gradually. the economy moving along better than 2% growth and things look pretty good in light of this number. also importantly we are not the much evidence at all of a trade war downdraft impacting the labor front. shery: what do you think and how much of all this is because of that seasonal noise at the end of the school year? stephen: that was worth about 40,000. if the average out june and july, you get about 200,000 a month.
we welcome stephen stanley and carl riccadonna. great to have both of you let us. want to start with carl. the job number strength continues. was this a near-perfect report in terms of what it says about the u.s. economy? carl: it certainly looks encouraging. income growth is moderate. wage inflation is running steady. we can expect more of the same for a good while longer as economists are sitting around and watching for the sign that finally shows the labor market running out of slack and...
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Aug 15, 2018
08/18
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kicking things off his carl riccadonna.rought on my is retail sales, personal spending, and the limiting factor. the laws of gravity have not been repealed. there is big questions over the surge in consumer activity we saw in the second quarter of the year. consumer spending growing at 4%, gdp at 4.1%. can that be sustained? unfortunately, the laws of gravity are in effect. over the cycle we have had many different flashes in the pan where it looked like consumers were finally taking off and we might see a new normal for the economy, but reality ultimately sets in and he surges lead to a pause from consumers as they catch their breath. it is not technically complicated mechanics behind that. the green line, green money is personal income and the personal income trend has not really changed. we should not look for a change in the speed of consumer spending until we see an acceleration in personal income. that may come as the unemployment rate grinds below 4%, but we are not there yet so consumers will slow down on the quarte
kicking things off his carl riccadonna.rought on my is retail sales, personal spending, and the limiting factor. the laws of gravity have not been repealed. there is big questions over the surge in consumer activity we saw in the second quarter of the year. consumer spending growing at 4%, gdp at 4.1%. can that be sustained? unfortunately, the laws of gravity are in effect. over the cycle we have had many different flashes in the pan where it looked like consumers were finally taking off and we...
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Aug 2, 2018
08/18
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for more, let's bring in carl riccadonna. is it all going to be about wages again?focus will be? >> that is the overarching theme or underlying theme for the last several quarters. angle oran additional two angles that we have to think about when we look at the report is one, yes, the wage pressures story is an ongoing story. in addition to that, watch for andence of tariff impacts hiring in general. the key is to watch the payroll diffusion index which tells us breath of job creation. if that is falling apart or dwindling, that could be a sign there are cracks in the facade emerging just like ahead of the 2007 recession. we saw diffusion rollover in the construction center -- sector. that was a canary in the coal mine for what was to come. the second story is this politically charged debate about whether or not q2 gdp growth at 4% really is sustainable. within that, the bigger question is, is consumer spending repeating the performance of q2 which i do not think it can. you watch the income trend to see ultimately if consumers can maintain that heavy of a pace in t
for more, let's bring in carl riccadonna. is it all going to be about wages again?focus will be? >> that is the overarching theme or underlying theme for the last several quarters. angle oran additional two angles that we have to think about when we look at the report is one, yes, the wage pressures story is an ongoing story. in addition to that, watch for andence of tariff impacts hiring in general. the key is to watch the payroll diffusion index which tells us breath of job creation. if...