steve liesman is there live in wyoming, joins us with his reaction good morning, steve. >> reporter: fed chairman jerome powell in his first speech as fed chairman

steve liesman is there live in wyoming, joins us with his reaction good morning, steve. >> reporter:g, jon, thanks very much fed chairman jerome powell in his first speech as fed chairman at the famed enclave in jackson hole, put on by kansas city federal reserve. striking a dovish tone, that's the way the market has taken i want to lead with market reaction, the 210 spread down below 20 basis points. last one was 19.7, 19.9, below 20 basis points first time since 2007 as the ten year fell down i have a 282 reading a few moments ago. what did he say that the market took as dovish, is the market right here i'm going to get to a hawkish comment he made at the end first, let's look at the comments the market is focusing on doesn't seem to be risk of overheating. that's the comment that's -- we're going to get to that full screen later, risk to the economy. he says doesn't seem to be risk of overheating second, says the u.s. economy strengthened substantially and most people that want a job can find them, and strong economic reforms will continue. he said we'll do whatever it takes if in

i'm steve liesman in jackson hole, wyoming. >>> the trump administration is doubling down its economicgenda touting growth, deregulation and tr but on that last point as kayla tausche reports, there's a lot of b unfinishusiness. >> u.s. and mexicania offls are hoping to reach a deal by today, staying in the naftatr ches through the weekend. negotiators racing the clock to each a deal b end of next week so it can be b signedy mexico's outgoing president. once the u.s. and mexico reach an agreement, canada will talks for the first time since june. >> we keep on working. they have to be finally stopped. we keep on working. >> negotiators racing the clock to reach a deal by the end of next week so it can be signed b mexico's outgoing president. once the u.s. and mexico reach an agreement canada would rejoin talks for the first time since june. one possible olive branch, dropping their washington demand, the deal must be renewed every five years. called a sseset cl it's been a sticking point for prime minister justin trudeau in particular. most of the investments people look at today have 1

steve liesman takes a look atwh at's on the mind of some of the world's influential policymakers. ♪ ♪ as u.s. central bankers meet beneath the grand teeton mountains at thennual retreat in jackson hole, wyoming, comments that officials a uncomfortable addressing. >> i'm not going to get into that. i would say this, though. our j at the fed is to make decisions on monetary policy and supervision without regard to politicalonsiderations or political influence and i'm confident we'll ctinue to do that. > we'rhat they're not uncomfortable talking about on. >> businesses that have some part of the supply chain that they think could get disrupted are raisingut questions a uncertainty in terms of their own investment. ce way i think of it is to watch thisefully and to try to judge how much uncertainty is flowing through to that can cause people to pull back on investment and ultimately slow the trajectory of growth. >> after interest rate policy, officitts seem com to a rate hike in september and likely another one in december each though the president said it shoulp trade administrations by

steve liesman takes a look. >>> how much do presidents have to do with job creation? prident trump and president obama, sometimes not much at all. over president trump, counting the 20 months starting after trump's election november 2016. so in the prior 20 months of the obama administration from april 2015 to novembe 2016, 4.. million jobs were created or a stronger 215,000 a month. so strong job growth continue der trump that began under obama and trump has done well to keep it going defying expectation was economistsld th it wlow because of a lack of workers. 400,000 manufacturing jobs have been added under trump compared to just 21,000 for the 20 months under obama. that's a sign t's preside focus on manufacturing might be bearing some fruit, but it's also mining an logging jobs which have grown by nearly 90,000 under trump, but fell by almost200,000 under obama. this could be the result of policy to deregate the industry ands economiy spurring production now versus oil pr oes, underma and there are some places where the trend underbama continued with trump. along

for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman.t to take a look some of today's upgrades and downgrades. we begin tonight with cbshich was downgraded to market perform from outperform. th analyst there cited the distractions of the investigation into the allegations against ceo les moonves. price target $50. the stockthose mor 2% today to 52.67. owterpillar wasraded to equal weight to overweight at barclays. the analyst cited the company's limited ability to eand its profit margins. price target $155. nevertheless, the stock did rise 3% to 143.80 today. uptwitter was aded to neutral instineuce at nomura the analyst there said twitter's investments wou benefithe company long term and lead to a more engaged user base, and that stock rose 1.5% to 31.87. still ahead, a classic case of too much supply and not enough oumand. >> i'm contessa brooer, this is the equivalent of the 37 pound of cheese every american eats every year, but there's a second amount of supply of cheese in coldtoge. so each of us has to eat an extra three pounds. th

for "nightly business report i'm steve liesman. >> joe davis is joinings analyze global chief economistt vanguard. thanks for joining u tonight, joe. >> thanks for having me. >> how much tighter does this labort, market do you think? >> i still think we can get tighter still. i think with the unemployment rate ticking down below 4%, i a ld not be surprised that year from now if conditions hold globally, that we cld be potentially below 3%. that would soundretty sensational, but given the slow increases we're seeing in the labor force and continued robust s, it would employ not shock me that a year or 18 months from now we would be 3% on the unemployment rate. >> i don't want t c throwd water on it at all, but underemployment was kind of ans in this particular report. could you address that? well that still remained tlevated, sue. that's something t we've seen this ratio of underemployment, sue, to the official unemployment rate ever since the global financial crisis ten years ago. i think part of that reflects structural mismatches in the labor force meaning there's a critical demand fo

senior economics reporter steve liesman joining us with fact checking on the president's tweets steve thank you yes, some controversial comments he said tariffs are working big time well, the trade deficit is rising, could be up by as much as $100 billion. the dollar is strengthening, offsetting some tariff impact. only mexico looks to be close to a trade deal some noises from europe. china looks to be digging in he said every country on earth wants to take wealth out of the u.s. always to our detriment. every country trades for its own benefits, countries don't trade as much as companies and individuals trade. trade is not seen as zero sum game, it is supposed to be good for exporter and importer. we send them dollars, they send us goods, not necessarily to our detriment. i say as they come, tax them, the president said actually it is u.s. consumers and companies that mostly pay the tariffs costs in higher prices it means he wanted to say it means jobs and great wealth. if you go to the next screen there in yellow. mos most economists say tariffs reduce jobs 5 to 1 every job saved th

steve liesman takes a look. >> like the spread of the common cold financial con takening can jump from country to country. the question of contagion is now top of the mind of markets with the decline of the turkish lira, almost 40% against the collar in e last several days. the turkish crisis has a double-digit inflation and a president who doesn't believe in an independentba central . ederal reserve rate hikes have weakened currencies in a host oo untries. they've raised tar questions about the economic growth outlooks. >> you have a whole array of emerging market countries. you can point to south africa, brazil, mexico. there's a -- whole bunch of them out luthere, ing russia as well 37 and i think that's the underlying problem, is the massive amount of debt, the u.s. is feeling the effects already, with stocks down modestly, and interest rates lower as investors.s clamor for safe assets. the efcts have been moderate. one big difference is a different u.s. president now. >> one of the strategies of this adminiration in some regard is to create enough stress abroad that they have to c

steve liesman did. >> steve liesman remembers it was fresh made mediterranean -- >> yeah, it was coolt, you're right. they made an excellent spread. >> it was good. >> i think you're right. >> i saw this earlier, and it's still important, but it was like, wow, i haven't mentioned -- when i read it earlier, i haven't talked about power, the fed, in a while. >> the way it ought to be. >> not everyone goes to this but he's going to go so i guess you're all psyched fed officials are going to gather next week you might even take a break from the fly fishing. >> i'm hoping if it's not a big deal and it's quiet, i get more fishing in this could be a huge boondoggle for me. >> the central bankers will be out there framed by the majestic titon mountains at jackson hole where steve does get -- you do fish at least a little. >> much less i have to say when i first went there back in '03, it was a -- do a little bit of tv and you had a lot of time to fish. >> you're not supposed to admit this. >> i don't mind. >> it's okay to be honest. >> people sort of think it's a good thing if you can i've ta

500 futures down by a point. >>> ester george expects gdp growth to come in for 3% and she told steve liesmanutral rate say reasonable one. currently the target range is 1.34% to 2%. the yield curve say factor in determining fed policy. we'll have more on steve's talk coming up at the bottom of the hour. that is beautiful scenery. >> it is. >>> this week makes it official, we're now in the longest bull market ever. joining us now for more on where it started and where it ends is jeremy siegel, professor of finance at the university of pennsylvania's wharton school of business. maybe you didn't get my email, professor, but did you not get my invite to come over and help out or what happened there >> i don't know. i was in new york all day -- >> that was it, maybe. >> that was probably why. sorry, joe. >> still some stuff that has to be done -- i don't know if you get a chance just stop by. you've been right the whole time. are you -- are you feeling good about yourself >> i mean, i think -- when we go all the way back to 2009, i thought that was one of the easiest calls i made. we were the mos

policymakers painted a rosy picture e of thenomy and kept interest rates at their current levels, but as steve liesmanorts they also suggested that a rate hike at the next meeting is likely. >>er the federal r kept interest rates unchanged in itss july-a meeting and further rate hike ahead as it upgraded the economic outlook from solid to strong. the fed funds rate was left in the rage of 75% to 2% and the fed gave a hint that further rate hikes were on the way at its meeting in september saying furtherreradual ies for the federal funds rate will be consistent with onsustained, ic expansion of economic activity. that's fed speak for more rate hikes are coming and indeed, the market traded that way september, and probabilities for a rate hike at that meeting and 88% and december, 62% and june 19th, 61% probability. after the meeting,dereg mcb wrote all sides still point to a september rate hike and continue payi down variable rate debt which is is credit cards and home equy lines and rate debt into fixed rate to insulate yourself from further rate hikes because there will be more. the fed said in a sta

material stocks after a morning plunge what's behind the wild swings, that's coming up >>> i'm steve liesman at cnbc headquarters globe bank policy, president trump's rate hike critique of the federal reserve. we'll give you a preview just ahead. >>> i'm bob pisani in for wilfred frost. president trump says he wants companies to report their earnings every six months instead of every quarter but one ceo says even that's too frequent he'll make his close "closing bell" starting now. >>> welcome to "the closing bell." and welcome. happy friday bob pisani is with me. we'll get to all those stories in just a moment, but let's check on the markets nice turn around today dow swinging around more than 190 points in today's session. on track now to post the sixth positive week in seven it's been boosted higher by talk of china trade talks we've got all 11 sectors in the s&p positive the debate of the day, i know you know it well, president trump's tweet here the ceo of black rock has been advocating for changes and short-term thinking for a while, he says i'm encouraged to hear paem from both sides

steve liesman. >>> it's now time for our etf spotlight. there's a near record spread between u.s.> this is serendipity, we'll call it a strategy, but look at how it's all been reflected in the stock market the u.s., obviously by the s&p 500. the efa outside the u.s. and especially once you got into the spring, tremendous split in performance, outward performance, it tracked the increase in the u.s. dollar. and then this perception that the fed was going to be obviously on one track the question is now, can it close in that one little move up in the foreign markets, that's when the dollar peaked so maybe that's what it's going to be based upon >> the currencies are leading indicators for stocks? >> coincidence if not leading. >> go all the way and give her what she wanted. it's right there, and it very much is part of the same equation driving both for sure >> politics are also at play here the president tweeted about south africa yesterday, in this sort of controversial land legislation they've got going, and guess what the rand went down it was already having a difficult year >>

something like toys 'r us, which is a pretty big blip, that will have a significant effect >> steve liesmanup i have to give steve credit today. he talks ability there's a lot of sway in these numbers with regard to accuracy and revision. ed lazear, thank you so much have a great weekend carl, back to you. >> thank you very much rick santelli. >> from mark zuckerberg to the bezos fashion and what it can tell us about him in a moment. you always pay your insurance on time. tap one little bumper and up go your rates. what good is your insurance if you get punished for using it? news flash: nobody's perfect. for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. switch and you could save $782 on home and auto insurance. call for a free quote today. liberty mutual insurance. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ >>> apple for the first time in history, the company is worth $1 trillion >> the company will generate $60 billion in free cash flow this year >> tesla rallying on track for the best day since november of 2015 >> i think this company c

look at steve liesman and the fashion world taking notice.we talk to one ceo about the return on his investment power lunch back in two. traded . i'm not really a wall street guy. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade >>> it's become the work uniform for the tech geeks and finance bros we talk to well vested men who wore it vest >> you guys all have -- your vest is different. >> shade of gray and brand aside, the fleece zip vest has cemented its place in finance and tech offices from new york to san francisco >> it's the style. it's a casual look but also a

thank you very much for all the great conversation steve liesman out of jackson hall, wyoming.ng into perspective, evan, just how much pain there is on other economies and countries around the world the governor of the bank of canada says this is a major risk to the canadian economy. canada is pretty open, so it's vulnerable >> yeah. what you have is -- the way to think about this is you have a bunch of central bankers who are apolitical and they're trying to guide central bank policy, and you have the united states saying basically this country is having a currency war against us and where monetary policy meet currencies is exactly where a trade war meet politicians and where we run into a global trade war in the economy that's why no matter what j. powell said or the bank of canada says they are dependent on what j. powell does or what the premier of china does or at the end of the day what trudeau does in canada >> and he says that's a much harder game. >> and the stock, it's going to get messy in the next couple of months, i can promise you that >>> we've got a news alert h

. >> interesting how steve liesman reported yesterday that the betting and positioning changed since powell said he's going to do a conference a news conference at every single meeting because the old rule was you did not expect them to do anything when they weren't going to have a news conference. now they have a news conference for every single meet, with every single is hot. >> live, as they say >>> more discussion about two things one, the spurt in growth over value. last few sessions. up until today, obviously. and the journal looks at evaluations trending at the lowest levels of the year the last few weeks and what it means. >> right you've had earnings come up to meet stock prices. stock prices flat lined since almost january we're about back to the five-year average for the s&p 500. it's not as if we got really cheap. it's just that there's great earnings out of taking care of an overvalueation. [ opening bell ] >> i find it interesting because the s&p 3,000 might be a bold number it's like 5% it's been stuck for awhile. >> there's the opening bell. some weak red on the left

we are live from jackson hole where steve liesman will speak to fed policymakers. >>> i'm happy to bringtopher smart, the head of macro economic and geopolitical research at bearings first, thank you for waking up early to speak with us on this show i know it's early for you over there. just taking a step back and talking about the u.s. economy, s&p has just made new intraday record highs the economy seems to be on good legs the fed is tightening. do you see this momentum continuing over the next 12 months or so >> i think it's hard to see right now what will disrupt the current trends if you look at what the imf world economic outlook of the last few months suggests, of the 193 economies they followed, only a handful are in recession. the u.s. continues to be strong on a lot of different fronts earnings are strong. there are a lot of potential pitfalls out there but at least as we look out over the next 12, 18 months things are looking good >> it seems like the only person criticizing the fed here is the u.s. president how seriously should we take president trump's criticisms of the fed

steve liesman is live in washington steve. >> the fed statement coming in less than an hour, always a potential market mover no change expected in the rate between 1.75 and 2%. there have been some changes and let's see why there's going to be no change in policy the gdp came in at a strong 4.1% but that was largely baked in probably back in june. unemployment ticking up to 4% even amid strong payroll growth and that's presented the idea maybe there's a little more slack in the economy core pce almost 2% less. the president said the federal reserve tightening now hurts all that we have done. i don't think that will have any effect on policy, at least not now. let's look at how we're positioned, 91% probability of a hike in september. 65% for december and june, that would be the first hike for 2019, another quarter point, a 63% probability of that. so what are the keys to the statement today? i think the fed will try to keep the market on track for september and a december rate hike, or at least not dissuade them from what they're thinking right now, upgrade the economic outlook just a

steve liesman joins us now with a couple of people who might agree with the president on that point. e. >> an odd situation here we have been talking to the protesters opposing plans by the fed to raise interest rates. this is their fifth year at the summit i'm joined by shawn sebastian, the director and marshall steinbalm from the roosevelt institute. the way tyler put it is odd, you agree with the president about not raising interest rates. >> i'll tell you our position since we met five years ago, four years ago, is that the fed should not be raising interest rates until we see wages going up with productivity and there is no reason to raise interest rates when the fed is still undershooting the inflation target we have been consistent for four years. donald trump criticized janet yellen during the election for keeping rates low. now he's president and criticizing his own pick for -- for raising rates. he's completely incoherent and self-serving so it is on both counts, we're being exactly who we are and being exactly consistent. >> the topic of this conference is interesting i don

benchmark rate, and the company is an eye-watering 45% keep in mind it had already been at 40% steve liesman said, no, we are not missing a zero the argentine peso had tumbled in response to a local corruption scandal and turkey's currency crisis. let's get to that. the turkish lira has stabilized. reproaching it -- no i spoke too soon there it is. breaking through the key level right now. several times again in the last 12 hours during asian and european trade as well turkey has been engulfed in a currency crisis for the last few days, and some could argue for the last few weeks, months, maybe years. early this morning the turkish central bank took several measures including allowing the banks -- several think operations, which market participants are calling a stealth tightening the president does not like it when this he raise interest rates. in the press release the bank says it will take all necessary measures, but most market participants think they haven't done enough, and as we continue to see the lira hit 7 to the dollar, certainly suggests that. let's get to villa marks, live in is

this meeting could be particularly important steve liesman is here -- well, he'll be there, he joinshere with what we can expect. >> his yearly junket. >> it's not a junket we work hard over there. it's going to be the kansas city fed's 42nd annual meeting in jackson hole and jerome powell's first as chair coming just before the ten-year anniversary of the financial crisis and likely behind the issues, powell speaks on friday, that's a week from today on monetary policy in a changing economy powell will be the fifth chairman to attend since the meeting moved to jackson in 182. leading central bankers will gather with him along with economists and other policymakers and a journalist or two. the conference will focus on the rise of large firms and market concentration in several industries kansas city fed putting out a statement explaining these shifts should concern central bankers since they have important lingage linkage becauy have slow productivity, slow growth and a declining labor share in the economy the foreign economies are doing pretty well. this will be no mountain retreat

gatheredin jackson hole for the big symposium and our own fed head said in the nicest possible way steve liesman very special guest and a long time friend of squawk. steve? >> yeah, joe, thanks very much i'm here with jim bullard, the st. louis federal reserve president, among those -- the dignitaries gathered here in jackson hole thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> let's start off with -- 21 basis points separates the two year note from the ten-year note, it's not very much what signal does that send to you about the economy and about your outlook for where rates ought to be. >> i started talking about this last december and there has been a good debate on wall street and within the fed about what to do. a lot of people have said maybe we shouldn't knowingly invert the yield curve. i agree with that. i don't think there's any reason to take on the possible recession risk that you would be inviting and so i think we should be very careful. >> is this the market saying no more that you're here, you're where you want to be, you are at neutral already. >> the market is not seeing tha

. >>> and it's jobs day, a good day to have steve liesman with us over the next two hours of "power." steve. >> tyler, thanks i'm going to begin with a really exciting report here, which is the first look at the cnbc rapid update for the third quarter not a lot of estimates in, just four you can see that we're starting off at 3.4 that compares with the q2 actual of 4.1%. atlanta fed 4.4. mike enguilty lung 3.5 and jim o'sullivan 3.0 on to jobs, weaker than expected july report that is actually stronger than it looks 157 versus 190 with the estimate look at those powerful may and june revisions 59,000 to the upside average hourly wages a tick more, 0.3% than the estimate of 0.2%. and there were several one-off factors that might have biased the number lower one, toys "r" us layoffs of 32,000. that could have been a negative. low response rate to the survey, and a big perhaps seasonal decline in education we haven't seen a july like this in both private and public education services in a very long time. so here's where the jobs were. leisure and hospitality up 40,000, manufacturing 37,

we are live from jackson hole where steve liesman will speak to fed policymakers as well as others >>angela merkel prioritized finding a suitable german candidate to lead the european commission the business daily cites a government official as saying the commission rather than the ecb is the top priority. merkel was previously seen backing bundesbank chief >>> some possible candidates were peter altmaier, manfre manfred weber and ursula vo ursula von der leyen. >>> coming up, trump lashes out at his former lawyer the telast drama from the white house when we return could lead to way cleaner teeth. she said, get the one inspired by dentists, with a round brush head. go pro with oral-b. oral-b's gentle rounded brush head removes more plaque along the gum line. for cleaner teeth and healthier gums. and unlike sonicare, oral-b is the first electric toothbrush brand accepted by the ada for its effectiveness and safety. what an amazing clean! i'll only use an oral-b! oral-b. brush like a pro. >>> welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche these are your headlines >>> the fed warns a

as fostering global financial stability. >> that would be the understatement steve liesman, thank you very much so how much of a risk is turkey to the global markets? bring in ron insana and david wessel, a senior fellow at brookings. gentlemen, welcome david, history repeating itself here what shoe are you looking to drop next? what next, do you think? >> well, i think you're right about history repeating itself it begins to look a little bit like the asian financial crisis where we had a series of unconnected events, thailand, brazil, russia, that contributed to a lot of global upheaval. one important thing to watch is what happens to the euro that's a symptom of the contagion. apparently a lot of european banks are exposed to turkey and that's taking a toll on the euro and the dollar is going up as a result, as steve said. >> ron, i don't see anybody trying to contain this yet everybody is just pouring kerosene on the fire. >> and the president is lighting the match. >> erdogan as well. >> absolutely. as david was saying, there is some historical press denting. you can go back to 1

consensus on four rate hikes this year, but continues to debate the policy path for next year steve liesmansults of the cnbc fed survey >>> as the fed holds its two-day meetings, here are the results of the fed survey. 100% not looking for a rate hike this week. but 90% say one is coming in september. and four rate hikes as in two more from now. one in september, one in december, dialed in. as for next year, 2.5. two is baked in. there's a debate on whether there's a third. 53% say the fed will go above neutral in its rate hikes. the outlook is more bullish. the forecast for the s&p 500 has come down repeatedly through the year the last couple of surveys it's ticked back up modest gains expected for the recent close still gains nonetheless. it comes amid higher interest rated, or expected higher interest rates, from 3% to 3.2 at the end of this year and 3.5 for the ten-year benchmark treasury note. a big controversy here was should president trump be talking about the federal reserve? 83% of our respondents, they include economists, fund managers, strategists, they say it's inappropriate fo

. >> i will ask the question if our friend steve liesman is listening and watching, does the federal reserve matter right now? >> it absolutely does. it is the risk free rate as they raise rates other asset classes become competitive it is actually a very important aspect >> i love it, p&g, hershey's, cisco and oracle chad, appreciate it. have a good start to your week. >>> still ahead here on "worldwide exchange," racing to the record books this ferrari bringing in huge bucks over the weekend maybe the most beautiful car ever made and we'll tell you what it sold for but, first, as we head out, a check on this morning's premarket dow winners and losers caterpillar, coca-cola and microsoft. visa, boeing and p&g it's early >>> all right. good morning welcome back new record highs for your money and your market. how many times have you heard that this year up seven of eight weeks and futures up 80 points right now and everything is rocking. >>> let's get a check about b bitcoin on the coin exchange awesome new documentary tonight. melissa lee's documentary "bit coin boom or bust" great

now, steve liesman. markets are up slightly now. want to go through if and why this is a long-term concern. because early days, people were concerned that president trump was too cozy with an autocratic leader like erdogan and suddenly we're saying wait, we can't be so tough on them. is the issue not whether he likes or not erdogan, but what the president, the administration's long-term strategy is here? >> i think that's an issue. i think you raise a good point because all of this takes place against a backdrop of a united states that doesn't feel the need anymore to be the stabilizer for the world. there were things that maybe presidents in the past wanted to do but they didn't do because it might destabilize the world. the united states has better growth going forward. maybe a better capitalized banking system. but there's two issues that seem to be driving this. in the first instance, it's a stronger u.s. dollar. that's federal reserve raising interest rates while other countries are kind of far behind our recovery here. the sec

joining me now, cnbc's senior economics reporter steve liesman and executive ed aitor of bloomberg opinion. this dip is round one. russia could be facing more sanctions. what reaction could we expect from the russian economy if they face round two? we have to remember, while putin is a scary guy, while they have a tremendous amount of nuclear power, their economy is piddlely, is nothing compared to the united states. >> yes, it's a very small economy. and very subject, by the way, to influence from the outside. because they have pretty strong imports. one thing they've done over time is reduced their foreign debt. so a little bit less exposure in that regard but still quite a bit of it. i think the russian economy is quite vulnerable when it comes to u.s. sanctions. you know, the question becomes for all of the things that donald trump is doing. does the -- does the end sort of justify the means, given what he wants out of russia. is the kind of instability that's potentially being created here and in turkey, are those things that might come back ultimately and ricochet against the u.s. in

steve liesman is going to take us through the list of countries moving rates higher. steve?its getting hot out there. rates remain low around the world in several big central banks, continue to ease with the direction of global monitor type policy. unmistakably toward tightening. take a look at our map courtesy of the counsel on foreign relations and it's a lot more red than it was before. a year ago it would have been mostly light blue or blue. there's a lot more red than we had. argentina hiking rates by 500 basis points to 45%. indonesia also hike this had month. the uk went up a quarter. and the czechs all followed the fed. in fact, there have been ten central banks that have hiked since early june including august, including turkey which went up 125 basis points to 17.25. the world is in tightening mode for different reasons in terms of the developing world the fed is having a significant impact on capital flows. countries with the weakest economic indicators are the ones suffering the most. all this is combined to push cfrs inindex to a ten year high of 3.85. ten is th

steve liesman also here on set with us reaction to the data. >> good numbers.orth of i'm going to call it 275 to really start to worry about the monthly jobless numbers. we go into the number tomorrow with a forecast of 190,000. -- sorry 3.9% is the forecast for the unemployment rate. that would be down a tick and the numbers have been good going in. yesterday we got the adp at 219. we have the ism manufacturing was pretty strong. i want to talk briefly, wolf, about the yuan and the trouble it presents for the u.s. trade policy. if you take a look what's happened since the u.s. began to put tariffs on china, the yuan has depreciated. it undermines the tariffs because suddenly chinese goods are relatively cheaper. they don't get rid of all of the tariff effect but what you heard lighthizer say yesterday was that we need to up these tariffs from 10 to 25 because the yuan has depreciated. it depreciated further. to wipe out the whole effect of the tariffs, you have to go down probably seven, almost eight to the dollar in order to wipe it out. there's two problems

let's check in with steve liesman in morning on both of those numbers. know the miss on the headline ism prices paid is definitely a beat. >> the manufacturing survey earlier this week did show some trade impact, but not decemberly this jobs report it's a stronger than expected weakly jobs number look at those powerful may/june revisions, it brings the average up to 24,000, that is a big number, and 10,000 more than it was going into the number. average hourly wage is up .2%. several factors that may have biassed the number lower here that people are talking about. lay ya layoffs at toys "r" us folks, get the survey in before you go on vacation and a big decline in the education number much of the swing between june and july appears to be due to seasonal adjustment problems around the end of the academic year, so you may want to bring down june a little bit, july a little bit manufacturing, that is a very strong number, we keep going along strong there, temporary help, that sometimes tells us where things are going, up 28,000, construction is strong, and

this after we await the federal reserve's rate hike decision later on today we have steve liesman andrategist jonathan golen. i guess we expect no new economic forecast. >> the fed basically wants to get out of this meeting holding intact the general market forecast that they're going to raise in september there's no hike at this meeting. the fed hike will likely be in september. and a pretty good possibility for december i'm going to be watching out the december probability and of course now the 10-year now, and the 2-year as well do they sort of make it seem like december is more baked in or less baked in june 19 is the next place where we get over the 50% probability of that hike so you do a quarter in september, a quarter in december, and then the next quarter comes in june, it's been sort of a june-may thing i think it's a little early yet, but to start to think about how all this affects the 2019 outlook for fed hikes. >> jonathan, two hikes this year, is that already baked in, and is there anything the fed could put in their report today that would affect the markets. >> the se

latest in the trade war and the ever changing factors could start to have an impact on fed policy steve liesman is at headquarters he's got more on the influence of the fed hi, steve. >> michelle, and the first place the fed is going to look for the impact of tariff are going to be those inflation numbers. today's ppi numbers unchanged but a high year over year rate price for final dammed for producer goods, that takes away food and energy hitting a six year high of 2.8%. and they've been rising steadily on that chart. you can see there soft wood lumber up nearly 20%, and steel mill products up almost 20% on a year over year basis inhe says inflation will rise as supply chain bottlenecks mount further and as more businesses attempt to pass on prices to customers. the fed is going to watch wage growth and inflation are these one time price rises or do they represent a long time change or persistent change to the inflation rate it's going to monitor inflation expectations and watch the flow from producer prices coo consumer prices. less of a inflation concern right now, guys, more of a growth wor

thanks bob pisani >>> central banks around the world have been doing more tightening than easing steve liesmanh the rates moving higher. steve? >> melissa, thanks interest rates remain lower but several big central banks ease but the direction of the global monetary policy unmistakably towards tightening take a look at this map from the council on foreign relations you can see what it is, it's color coded. red is tightening and blue is easing more and more red in the picture. in fact, some red added just this week. azerbaijan -- argentine into tightened. they went from 45% to 40%. 500 basis points indonesia joins. if you take a look at the next map you can see michelle wouldn't need the names under here, i do she's the international reporter just in august 5 central banks, another 5 in june and july couldn't find any easing among the central banks all tightening it would have been all mostly easing a shift in direction turkey went up by 125 basis poin points mode for a different developer. >> we've come forward here, minus 3.4. new ten-year high of 3.9 i don't think this means that the situati

could be one point of differentiation of the trade talks with china >> our economics reporter steve liesman us now with the country's rates moving higher, hey, steve >> several big central banks continue to ease, the direction of global monetary policy unmistakably toward tightening take a look at this map of the world, blue is tightening and red is easing and white is neutral. you can see there's a lot more red than we have had the past several years, argentina up 5%. earlier this month, the uk went up, the reserve bank of india and the checks all follow the federal reserve. it's been a hot summer for the central banks, ten in august, in this period of time from the summer, cannot find it easy, turkey went up 1.25% to $17.7 5 the world is in tightening mode for different reasons in terms of the developing world, the fed is having a significant impact on countries with the weakest economic growth. let's go back, september 2012, minus 9.8, where minus 10 is max global easing. just a couple of years ago we were still negative, but now we're positive it's not the rate level, it's t economic le

. >>> president trump tweeting a lot about tariffs saying they are working big-time steve liesman is to check his claims steve. >> thanks very much. let's take a look at the president's tweet over the weekend on tariffs, saying they are working, as tyler said, big-time every country on earth wants to take wealth out of the u.s always to our detriment. i say as they come tax them if they don't want to be taxed, but then make or build a product in the u.s. let's take a look at this line by line here tariffs are working big-time well, the trade deficit is rising might be up by $100 billion this year, so not working in that regard the dollar is strengthening, making the u.s. less competitive from a terms of trade standpoint only mexico so far some whispers out of europe. looks to be close to a trade deal next line here every country wants to take wealth out of the u.s. every country trades for its own benefit. we established that 300 years ago under adam smith it's not even countries that are trading. it's companies and individuals trade is not a zero sum game both are supposed to win a

i saw steve liesman tweet this up. that is strong growth especially coming off of more than four percent economy. >> which is one of my bullish theses around the u.s. equity market. of course it will get hit when there are disruptions in other places around the globe particularly when it is one-on-one which some of this is. but when you take a look at what is going on with the strong economic growth and corporate earnings that chris cited earlier it's -- the capital goes where it gets rewarded. this will be a momentary blip. i think we continue to rally especially in september as you mentioned when people come back and start trading and investing. >> everyone is away. >> it's easier to push the market around. >> thanks, guys. >>> we have a news alert out of washington. let's get straight to eamon javers. >> sarah huckabee sanders, the white house press secretary just wrapped up her briefing. i had the chance to ask her about this tweet from president trump earlier in the week on harley david. the president tweeted many

. >> we begin with cnbc's senior economics reporter, steve liesman.atest comments from the federal reserve on interest rates and the economy. >> the fed kept interest rates unchanged. it's an upgrade of the economic outlook from solid to strong. the fed said further gradual increases in the target range will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity. that is a mouthful of fed speak for more hikes on the way. here are the probabilities. indeed, the market is pricing it that way. september near 90%. then you have to go to june 19 for the next mark above 50%. this is interesting. greg mcbride of bankrate.com. all signs point to september rate hike. continue paying down variable rate debt such as credit cards and home equity lines and refinance adjustable rate debt because there will be more. the fed added that the labor market has continued to strengthen. household and business spending -- target also interesting what was not said, no mention of whether the fed thinks strong growth can continue or the possible economic effects of tariff

economy steve liesman joining us with that story at headquarters steve, i've been wondering aren't the economics just going to point us to a deal. >> >> and also i want to flag the economics with china because that happens next week here are our major trading partners 700 for canada and china and 1.2 billion with the eu. and here you can see with deficit. exports in yellow and blue has the imports. mexico will have the deficits over here. and we have a $64 billion trade deficit with them. canada we have a surplus with canada china, relative to the size of this one over here the trade deficit is huge over there and eu back down, $100 million trade deficit on $1.2 trillion worth of trade let's take a look what's been happening with china and the u.s. i want to zoom in on that particular you can see imports and exports grow together, and in fact they've been growing recently. the trouble is you'll never catch up because the chinese exports are so much higher than imports from the u.s. but now i want to just let's put our heads together on this take a look over here at the u.s. gdp growth.

steve liesman is here with how the markets might be impacted. >> fed chairman's jerome powell's announcementey would hold press conferences after every meeting already having an impact on the fed funds futures market let's see if we can all see it here on the next chart do we have the next chart? if we did -- that's the wrong chart, i'm very sorry, folks the chart would show the probabilities of the next meetings and what it would show is that there's no probabilities assigned to a chart in november and the off meetings, but next year there's a little probability in every -- each one of them. >> it makes every meeting live effectively. >> now, the fed said they should be on their toes for a possible hike at every meeting. they previously only raised at quarterly meetings so the market was conditioned to all of this in the absence of this you need to follow the economic data very closely. if you can put up that chart i was just showing you there we go. what this shows and why you have to look out for 2019 this is where each participant is, above the median of 2.9%, eight of them. 4 of them ar

steve liesman breaking down the retail sales number. >> the good thing is i have no idea what you guys were talking about. the market has other things on its mind it would appear other than u.s. data because it was mostly all strong, including retail sales for july and second quarter productivity i'll get you those details in just a second. it all amounts to putting together another strong quarter for u.s. growth. here's the rapid update. we have nine economists right there now, gdp estimates 3.3%. this is the first big range of data the range is 3% to 4.3%. q2 is down a tick from the 4.1%. let's look at who is where here. atlanta fed at the top 4.3%. moody's at 3.7 they put it together for us. amherst right in the middle and oxford and mufg at the bottom. note june was revised down to 0.2 at strong for july, 0.6. clothing strong after a weak couple -- past couple of months. food and drink as well department stores had been weak, bounced back this month. there it is, retailers where the internet folks are and gasoline prices still high so gasoline stores did well as well. productivity

. >> steve liesman has more. they're not asking for reaction. >> they learned. >> what? let's get to steve's reaction on the data and he had no reaction >> here is a reaction for you. >> i wanted a reaction. >> you have more data? >> i have more specificity and details. >> and more fill in -- >> the big story is the curious number july was very good there was a big revision downward from june or injun. originally pointed to 0.5 now 0.2. put it together, you are modest and pretty good. retail sales are good. looking at details, one of the things we are looking at is the autosect auto sector which is up. it is up 0.2 we have stories of used car prices rising. >> i buy used cars >> what did you buy? >> trade explorer? >> how many miles? >> 40 miles. >> still under warrantee >> yes >> i drive-in to the city everyday i want a new car >> i hear you. >> one of the things i was looking at is the effect if possible of amazon prime date. >> how do you see it because it is every year, it gets bigger every year >> it is hard to know because you have a 0.8% rise in non store retailer

steve liesman joins us now with reaction to those numbers.ing more aggressive. >> that's right. no trade impact that i can see here. it's not showing up. one thing we see for sure is that the energy prices declined in the month -- some of them are back up, again, is that right? little up and down. joe, you made a flat 66 -- >> a little bit. >> gas was down 01, heating number down. you guys talking about that used car story, passenger cars up 0.7. the outlook before this number but i'm guessing they haven't changed very much. 92 of the september hike, december 66% and the next one doesn't come until june. something of a pause priced in. i'm going to show you this some other day, but the idea that powell will now have a press conference every month has changed the whole structure of that probability. there's now a high probability for each of the months, but the one where you go 50% is not until june. how is the fed thinking about some of these tariffs? one, it's going to look past one time price rise. there's a generalized rise in the price le

steve liesman joins us now with a look at how global hot spots could affect the u.s >> i think thereestors have to think of compares with previous ones stronger u.s. growth on the one hand and better capitalized u.s. banks and the belief in markets that banks are better capitalized. here are the major sources of concern. you have them raising interest rates. and then of course there are tariffs and retaliation from tariffs if you think about both sides of the equation right there. moving along here, i'm getting two views on turkey. first hfe says turkey can allow to hammer eu institutions. while the fear of contagion will leave tradinger nervous this wk the problems appear more endemic to turkey than systemic to the gleebl financial sphere. the main downside risk to global growth and also inflation. so the history of these global financial contagions show it's unpredictable. sometimes you wake up in the morning and no one cares other times global markets sweat and worry about a far reaching fallout from small financial shocks a new development you have to take into account, the u.s.

steve liesman -- >> oh, he's here. >> takes a look at the fed and how the market is already reacting.something you said yesterday i will remind you in a second. jerome powell announced in june that the fed would go to press conferences every meeting instead of just quarterly beginning in 2019. that's already having an impact on the fed funds futures markets. take a look here look on the left side of your screen, four bars. you can tell on the left side which meetings have press conferences and which don't. the ones with the higher rates now look to the right. it was becky's remark about the may percentage that caused me to do this. >> i still don't remember what i said yesterday. >> you said it's so high relative to june part of the reason was because they're debating does it happen in may and june. before they wouldn't have thought about it because it would have to happen in june because that's when the quarterly -- you can see the probabilities now are distributed throughout the months and that's going to be true as you head further into 2019 so every month now -- >> and that's actu

. >> steve liesman >> 214,000 >> 214,000 says the model. >> i don't agree with the "price is right" ruleick santee lee? >> where is bob barker >> 237,000 >> my b.s. prediction, 131,000 weak sauce >> we should take a look at futures before we go to this so we can track and see what happens afterwards take a quick look right now. you're going to see that the dow futures are up by about 37 points s&p up by four the nasdaq up by 14. maybe we'll look at the 10-year note as well also check out where that's been trading. right now it looks like it is sitting at 2.98% this is all before that big number kayla tausche is standing by at the labor department >> becky, 157,000 jobs that was the nonfarm payroll addition for the month of july the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.9% that is the lowest since may as for wages, average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.3% over last month. as for production of nonsupervisory employees, that rose just 1 cent over last month. for both of those, 2.7% is the increase over last year. as for revisions, both may and june were revised upward job gains for

. >>> steve liesman is joining us right now. he's been going over the numbers., where you spent so much time tirelessly working. >> with all those fed guys. we were working very hard. >> yes. >> exhausted. very tired. >> look at all the work he was doing. >> well, there's a fisherman in undisclosed location i can't tell you about. that's a large brown trout. not, you know -- not too bad a fish. >> let's talk about the personal economic spending numbers. down a tick on the income number but in line with expectations and these are good numbers. 0-4, 0-3. 0.4 in july. 0.3 on disposable income. durables down a tick. that might reflect the fall off in car sales. i don't know if you're registering that in stock market prices but you have had a bit of weakening there but nondurables up 0.4. they adjusted a lot at 6.7%. they did a revision of this. >> that's a big number. >> you got to get used to the new level. they were down in the fours and fives and they went back and looked at it again. there's more savings out there. >> its a healthier rate but there's that fine l