be the readiest. >>> it's time, let's get over to the cme and rick santelli for the santelli exchange thank you, jon. you know, i'm still one of these people, and many on this trading floor are as well, we get pretty excited on fed days. granted, some are less exciting than others. but this one trultruly, i think will be important on a number of levels, not the least of which it will represent another rate hike in the march toward normalcy, if you can ever really go back to the way things were my guess is it will be a modified back to the way things were because as everything has recalibrat recalibrated, it's going to be very difficult to recalibrate back, obviously. and when i look overseas, it even gets crazier. but maybe more specifically, we can zero in on desperately seeking neutral. neutral is important you know, it's that magic place where inflation is neither accelerating or slowing. where job creation is at a level that's not pushing the envelope, but where's the room you know, at 6% plus, i remember 6.5 and bernanke said that was full employment. it was 4.5 and now we're at

now time to head to the bond pits and check in with rick santelli in chicago. , rick >> reporter: yes winds of september are blowing strong in chicago yesterday. we have popped a bit but yet look closely we're still in the 280 288 up two twos are up one. we're steepening a little bit. 30s up four. maybe the most important aspect it looks to be the 17th session we'll close in the 280 last time we closed in the 290, as you can see on the chart is in august. the yields have dropped. that's one of the reasons higher quality paper is moving up reversing the trends of last week you can see bunds moving up in yield. maybe not as as aggressively as treasuries then again they're in the 30s. as a percentage move, i think they win look at two day of dollar index. having another pretty good day many people are asking after we made it through the emerging markets, how much bullishness is still left in the dollar index it vacillated for awhile if you open the chart up from early july, we sort of held around the top of the range. many thought we were going back into there was

rick santelli for the santelli exchange rick >> hi.w much talk of course about interest rates, especially right before they crossed over and stabilized solidly above 3%. most of last week, because we settled a whisper below 3% for the most part this week, we have been resting comfortably above 305. the reason i think it is all so important, a, because we all knew that sometime around middle of september a stream of buying would dry up that was leftover from tax reform. but there's so much more going on than that obviously the stock market is powering ahead, which brings me to the point that the int interlopers always amaze me, tht rates and to some extent foreign exchange obviously after any major crisis, a bit out of phase. it needs to be reharmonized, so to speak look at the following chart. this chart starts in november. it's the s&p 500 against 30-year bonds. and it's not the ten year or seven year or five year wouldn't work but 30 year is the farthest away from where the most influence of the federal reserve is during this normali

jon, little more than ten minutes away >>> let's see rick santelli in chicago for the santelli exchange rick >> thanks, jon i tell you, it has been exciting on the floor for the past 24 hours. more exciting than usual you saw the dollar options pit that i did the tease in. lots of action as the term structure is trying to adjust to what's going on with jay powell and company, and let's be frank here, basically been ten years, to remove accommodation, yeah, it was something big but come on. how long does it take? i think jay powell and company and janet yellen and ben bernanke, hasn't been as bad as it could have in many ways the longer something takes, the more issues you have with outside issues, exogenous forces, different economies, emerging markets, trade issues that can slowly start to take bites out. normalization should have begun awhile ago, we can't go back in time removing accommodation is like putting the patient in the recovery room, but you can't keep them there forever. we need to remove it does it have hidden meaning? i don't think so let's go to the boards all of the pri

. >>> let's get to the bond pitwi, there is more on the day, right rick santelli?e bit of a mix bag. adp is a little bit light. i like the productivity numbers. two day of tens, it looks like a healthy ekg. it was mostly flat line hovering right around the 280 to mid 280 area flat line is something investors like really kind of good health economy beneath it and rates are not moving aggressively. how about a year's perspective on everything. we always read who's doing good or bad our eyes can tell us much moreey >> let's look at the dollar index. the rieght soft the chart, s&p 500, hard to argue with that don don't see a lot of big drops to be corrected if i switch gear and look at outside the u.s., bund looks like a staircase down everyon though we feel like it is correlation and we link up to different area that adds up overtime. look at the dax, the economic in europe looks pretty flat to me and finally, shanghai, we are in a wrestling match with china and depending how you get your news, kind of hard to tell who's winning and losing this chart gives you the ans

rick santelli, what are you watching >> i am watching the dollar index. it looked good friday.ned friday we have given back today. what is the fate of the dollar index. how much does globalism figure in we go to long term chart to give us answers after the break imagine traveling hassle-free with your golf clubs. now you can, with shipsticks.com! no more lugging your clubs through the airport or risk having your clubs lost or damaged by the airlines. sending your own clubs ahead with shipsticks.com makes it fast & easy to get to your golf destination. with just a few clicks or a phone call we'll pick up and deliver your clubs on-time, guaranteed, for as low as $39.99. shipsticks.com saves you time and money. make it simple. make it ship sticks. when it might be time to buy or sell? with fidelity's real-time analytics, you'll get clear, actionable alerts about potential investment opportunities in real time. fidelity. open an account today. >>> coming up, is this the opportunity to get into amazon >>> and steve weiss with his ultimate portfolio what five names he is betting on a

in new york city and at the pentagon >>> we have data across the tape and with that, we go to rick santelliy's final read up .6 that's darn close to expectations and replaces the mid month read up .7 on the wholesale trade sales number on chains, sequentially falling .2 as for jolts, yes, another 600 matter of fact, almost seven 6.935 million job openings 12 out of the last 14 jolt numbers have been over 6 million. seven in a row now over 6 million and prior to june of last year, actually april of last year, we never had a 6 million number going back to the beginning of this series this particular number is another new high 6.8 million in april so, anything related to jobs just keeps going higher and higher and, finally, the market's response, getting ever so close to 3% now, 2.5 bases points away on the ten-year. carl, back to you. >> wow, rick, thank you very much rick santelli. our road maps begin with trade talks resuming in washington today. major averages are falling this morning. >> apple is getting ready for its big unveil look at the tech giant's product pipeline up next. >>> milli

rick santelli here we're going to have the former chairman of the counsel advisers under george w. joining me. >> how are you >> good. listen, i want to cover the meat and potatoes what did you cthink of today's numbers? >> right on target consistent with where we've been in the past. the if you remembnumber i look e month job growth, 185,000, that's still above what we need to keep up with population growth tells us we're still in recovery mode, but we're getting close to the top now. the other quick thing, the only negative i was going to say is that the employment rate you know which i love has dropped a couple of percentage points. we'll follow that over the next month or two >> now i was excited at over the wage pops. year over year, month over month. the discussion really seems to beam down on the notion that deficits are rising. taxes are lower. and this is a prb problem. if you want a good economy, do what makes it run best generate the most money then spend it any way you want. i think right now, we have this really crazy debate if taxes make the economy hum better, i don'

rick santelli. let's check on the markets, dow is just off session high the s&p is up almost five.s isn't just any moving day. this is moving day with the best in-home wifi experience and millions of wifi hotspots to help you stay connected. and this is moving day with reliable service appointments in a two-hour window so you're up and running in no time. show me decorating shows. this is staying connected with xfinity to make moving... simple. easy. awesome. stay connected while you move with the best wifi experience and two-hour appointment windows. click, call or visit a store today. >>> the best day ever in the short life so far of tilray as a public company went public in july of '17 now 237. - our markets are currently experiencing the longest bull run in history. so, now's the perfect time to ask yourself, "do you have wealth insurance?". you know, i made a good living playing games on television, but my financial future, well, that's something i don't like to leave to chance. (door shuts quietly) i decided years ago that i would protect my financial future by putting a port

rick santelli has been bringing us awful a lot of numbers today.et to chicago >> absolutely, carl, you are right, retail sales was not powerful as leave liesman brought out, we have positive grounds. the middle mopt nth may all come out on the wash. it is clear sailing to the upside, fresh high yields with this 278 going back to 24th of june, 2008 now, if you look at one week of tens, similar fashion and opening the chart up to august 1st. it is right on august 1st, we had our last close at 3% there is only been about a dozen touches today. it is going to do it again technically on my inside screen, we came at tenth and a basis point. if you look at guild it is interesting of the two central banks met yesterday. the gilt and the pound is moving pretty good, hovering around at 154 and the pound verses the dollar looking pretty good going back to early august it is the dollar index that's not looking good 94.70 now. there is a july start to the chart, that's about the last time we were down here at the end of the month if you open it up in june, we w

back over to you >> bertha, thank you very much >> let's turn to rick santelli in chicago >> good morning mike >> there is always a continuation and in this case you look at one week of tens, its firm treasury rate if you look at beginning of august that jumps out of you or hovering one month highs closing yield on the long end. the short end is up one at 270 it is basically at a fresh new high going back. the curve is flattening a little bit. we are hovering right around the 23 basic points area on 10 minus twos it is not the flattest it has been but darn close on the macro horiz horizon. bund yield, the 40 base level is lucid to us. why is it firming? well, we know that the central bank meetings are coming up especially the ecb, maybe it will be fascinating but also it seems as though the italians side of the equation to some extent is calming. as you see on this april first chart, still off the levels when you start back in the spring but definitely well below 3% now and that trade dissipates on the intensity barometer, there does seem to be more on the selling side of bund and treasur

rick santelli with the santelli exchange. >> good morning.sor rajiv tawan. thank you for joining me this morning. >> thank you for having me. >> it's so difficult i look at the stock market and it seems to be oblivious with what is going on with trade. trade is a wide spectrum some believe it's a nuisance and process that will end in a favorable fashion. others think the sky is falling. can you quantify this for us, professor? >> i would put it this way in the first round, a few tariffs here and there on the proportion of what we have put the number of products, it's a wash if i don't get my iphone at the right price, i may buy something else which may not be tariffed like a service product so it washes out the trouble comes in when you get to the next round when people postpone their investment expenditures which then starts affecting the growth in everything. >> now notional numbers are large but how much is at stake in a realestic dollar figure over a timeline that you've just described? >> i would say on paper when they say 10% tariff on

. >> let's roll to the bond pit and check in with the rick santelli at the cme group in chicago. morning rick. >> well, it is a fascinating day. one week short of tens, you see the high yield today yes. 311 sounds familiar. a high yield close of the year that was not made. let's roll it back if we take it out, we'll be comping towards june of 2011 take it back to 2008, the 10-yr chart, you can see this pattern is all about the upside from a trader's perspective the only issue is how fast and how far and when as for overseas, a bit of the same picture, maybe in motion. let's look at what's going on with the two-yr, looking at it right now, the trade is as high as minus 50 or everyonen a litte higher the chart shows you, let's go back to 2016, the highs this year minus 49. if we take it out, we'll be copying the may of 2016. if you look at the 10-yr bund and year to date chart and 60 years basis point, it is hovering since may their yield curve has had some serious movement the last topic, the euro verses the dollar getting close to 118. many traders would consider that a b a big p

we'll llouhi neste y wcham could be primed for a comeback at tradingnation.cnbc.com rick santelli withhi, honestly, my favorite guy, ira harris, we have so much to talk about. abe gets the nod once it's official it's going to be a three termer, nine years, the longest server premier of japan. the reason i mention it 1 the bank of japan, european central ba bank, they're not doing what they should be doing. >> they're stuck in this headline on reuters that abe was distancing themselves from the inflation discussion i talked to my in-house expert and he said it's a bad translation. so i'm not giving it that much and the market isn't reflecting. >> nor is norway's central bank raises for the first time years. what i want to talk about is what happens to these central banks and their economies that are fighting or can't pull away the stimulus. >> we saw it last week draghi is caught here in a terrible trap. he's caught in a trap. he's going to see this through until the end of december with $15 billion but they've made a trap for themselves because how do you exit from this? the southern m

rick santelli. orning carl mar markets are pretty smart i am not saying it is not important news the most part, the market's scenic was kind of yesterday's news there is a little bit of a benefit of the 25% tariffs going into effect on monday on the 24th a portion of that is only 10%. in a way, the market sees something a little different in a better way yesterday that was reflected in the asian markets. if you look at one week of twos or one week of tens, it is covering under 280 10-yr are continuing to build. technically we have not closed on the north side of 3%. yesterday and today we are flirting above 3%. of course i am just splitting hairs. the market is firm and we know next week, well, we have fed meetings coming up soon and most likely we'll result in a tightening if you think of the barometer of the income markets, you can look at the securities and relationships, look at barkl barkley's, these spreads are not widening there is not a nervousness in the fit income market. italian yields are

. >>> let's get over to the cme and get the santelli exchange. hey, rick. >> hi, carl. so many years, you get caught up in the minutia of the markets i love that. that's what i thrive on. outside this building, many kind of can't get into all of the details and they end up with conventional wisdom. there's nothing wrong with that. especially if you have to work, pay the mortgage the problem is sometimes the big conventional wisdom leads to big conclusions that are not accurate in the long term. but the time frame is so long, it is hard to go back and think we were wrong on that. it flows along like aging. you look in the mirror, don't see yourself aging yesterday, we had a trade deficit that jumped up most in a couple of years, especially with regard to china. just like conventional wisdom, there's a conventi conventional conclusion. since we are in a trade skirmish, that taints how we look at it let's pull it out, look at what we have left imports skyrocketing, exports down 1%. as we learned today at 8:30 eastern and 10:00 eastern when we had data points, whether it wa

. >>> let's get to the cme and rick santelli, get the santelli exchange rick >> thank you, carl i tell way markets are trading and reading the on-going issues regarding tariffs certainly isn't easy to cypher through markets for the most part remain agnostic they look towards more of a solution ultimately. but just because the market is up doesn't mean this is going to end well but the converse is true as well many things i hear, whether something like this never been done, we never challenged china before, all economists agree this is the wrong way to go, that doesn't mean it is going to fail with regard to how this end up, truly nobody knows yet but markets and investors are certainly playing the long game. and that long game is a phrase i heard many times in the last several days on our. we heard it from a ge employee, ex-employee that wrote a book. she said china played the long game with many things. my guest today talked about the notion given the way the government works, how often we have elections, it is much more difficult. this administration is trying to challenge it at a ti

highest today in about a week or so >>> let's get to the cme group in chicago and check in with rick santelli>> good morning. i'd like to welcome my guest this fede morning. chief economist vincent reinhart thanks for joining me. it seems a fait accompli we'll see a rate increase, third one this year for a range of 2.25% your thoughts? >> we're old enough to remember when fede was exciting it's not going to be on the funds rate, the quarter point is a lock how do they characterize policy accommodations they are raising the funds rate. what they do with the dots do we see the longer run estimate of the appropriate funds rate drift up a bit and how powell handles himself in a press conference because he'll get a whole lot of questions about president trump and trade. >> you mentioned two things and we're going to get to them in a very strange way there are some new faces you mentioned dot plots. some people will be doing them, but from a different vantage point regarding what hat they wear, whether it's mary daley or john williams. tell us about the new faces and how they fit in with fit in wit

looking forward to it, brian >>> let's get to the cme and rick santelli for the santelli exchange hey, rick. >> good morning. thank you. like to welcome my guest charles miller thank you for taking the time. >> glad to be here >> all right last week president trump announced he was crafting an executive order to make it easier with regard to cash flows and retirement accounts. what do you think, will it make a difference >> the executive order is to try to get treasury and labor to adopt regulations that allows small businesses to band together to do 401(k)s that are sometimes too expensive, have too much regulation or fiduciary obligation so they don't want to take the risk. it is a good thing to achieve better retirement outcomes for millions of americans. as you and i discussed before, it doesn't have anything to do with public plans. it is only corporate plans and small businesses adopting 401(k)s together as a good idea, leaves public plans where they are. >> and whenever we come back to state and local pension plans, it is a dire story moodies had a writeup saying there were hol

indication on that yet >> carl, back to you >> see you in a little bit bob pisani, let's get to rick santelli >> good morning rick >> we are down a couple of basis points of maturity except the two-year is slowing down we did have ppi data it was not ice cube cold but it was on the cool side especially the month over month data and that really does represent an issue of conundrum if you will we see there are a lot of people and a lot of jobs and some of the recent data like jolts and jobs reports underscore jobs maybe more plentiful for people to fill them we saw wage components go up the traditional measures of inflation although many of them elevated don't seem to be moving in a more elevated scenario. if you look at the one week of twos or one week of tens, they have the same pattern. the yield curve is slightly at ten to ts to the twos. it has carried the both long end and short end. look at the dollar index about a week ago, we had a lot of sub 90 closes we don't we are going sideways. we have 3% higher than the dollar index closed. one week of the pound considering tomorrow, both europe

host: rick santelli. guest: he heard about this idea of bailing out homeowners. he said i don't want to use my tax money to bail out those people that never should have had a mortgage in the first place. that is how the tea party began. the resentment against fellow citizens who might be getting help you don't deserve it would have been a political problem. mentioned -- caller mentioned the goldman hearings. in goldman,rought and they turned out to have been selling a package of these securities, which they knew were becausebut they did it one of their big customers wanted to bet against them. placeis a way to actually t that aial be security will go down. this guy wanted to do that. they created a package of stinky loans, which they did it intentionally so this guy could make money. he did. the senators called up the goldman people and said how could you do that? how could you put out a security that you knew were stinky so that a customer could make money on that. they say, we just do this. this is what we do on wall street. it was like the senators and the guy

rick santelli.to break, we'll get cramer's mad dash in a moment and count down to the opening bell also, ahead today, sara eisen's exclusive with the new ceo of mondelez and we're watching not just futures but the jobs number looking for developments on would be nafta deal, chinese tariffs, on tesla, and more. don't go away. imagine traveling hassle-free with your golf clubs. now you can, with shipsticks.com! no more lugging your clubs through the airport or risk having your clubs lost or damaged by the airlines. sending your own clubs ahead with shipsticks.com makes it fast & easy to get to your golf destination. with just a few clicks or a phone call we'll pick up and deliver your clubs on-time, guaranteed, for as low as $39.99. shipsticks.com saves you time and money. make it simple. make it ship sticks. >>> in just a few moments, larry kudlow, director of the economic counsel will join us to talk about the jobs number today. trade, taxes, and a lot more in the meantime, futures are weak and "squ

courtney, back to you. >>> thank you very much, rick santelli the dow and the s&p sitting at session lows two tech heavyweights driving down the nasdaq, amazon and apple. kes p tech analyst gives us hi ta on those stocks that's up next on "power lunch." ♪ comfort. what we deliver by delivering. >>> apple on pace for its worst day since april. amazon on track for its worst day since late july. let's drill down on amazon first. citi saying the company should split its retail and cloud businesses for a number of reasons including reducing the risk of increased regulations. let's talk more about this joining us is an analyst brian, thanks for joining us i know you also cover amazon this is not necessarily a new idea many folks have i had to with the idea of amazon splitting off some of its businesses citi believes now is the time to do it. what do you think? >> i think it's a bullet you don't need to use today. the stock has been a monster, go back over five years up over 500%, the s&p is up over 72% i also think a lot of amazon's pixie dust sprinkles on aws, adds a little magic to it, a

how bond traders are positioning themselves ahead of the decision and powell's news conference rick santelli is tracking the action at the cme. hey, rick. >> hi, melissa let's just highlight yield curves traders are going to watch should the rate move up to 2%, 2.25%. they're watching 7 to 10s. they're watching 30 minus 5s and 10s minus 2s the latter two a little steeper than some of the recent flat narrow areas they traded one week of 10s, where did it stop right at 3.11 yesterday. if you open up to may 1st, you can see why that is so important. that is the high close of the year go all the way back to june of 2011 if we take it out, that's what we'll be comping to. this could be a big 25 basis points and finally the dollar now, i look up at the board and it's up a little bit if i put a one-week chart up, you'll see on the right side a little hump. it was up a bit. when you put it into context the way it's traded the last four days in front of today, you can see clearly going nowhere quickly, although it is holding 94 tyler, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you very much the fed meeting

. >>> let's get to the cme with rick santelli and the santelli exchange >> good morning.e to welcome jim grant, the jim grant from grant's interest rate observer. thanks for joining me, jim i'm going to get into it your last issue hits on a topic that many investors have done well with, collateralized loan obligations, form of debt. what's the issue with clos >> well, as weinstein said the other day, you can't love the by put hate the pieces. love the pieces but hate the pie. imagine the coo as a pizza, and it consists of debts, bank loans, and there's a tiny bit of equity in there. people are betting on the equity it is very complicated, rick, and yet very simple. and the simple thing is that our little tiny adulter ated interest rates corrupted credit and pieces i >> reporter: now what happens in your opinion as the credit quality may not be as good as advertised and add in covenants, the little rules specific to these securities you think that they're not stringent enough explain. >> well, covenants are the fine print that keeps the issuing company on the straight and

. >>> let's check on the bond market, rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. >> february 1st start of tens shows you everything you need to know we really move in range tight formation. we closed just a little bit under 290 yesterday. everybody will round it to 290, was the 18 session in the 280s today, hovering on change and the same spot, italian tens, pretty wild times since april. back under 3%. easy in some of the spread pressures keeping our rates in sovereign rates in europe a bit firm the emerging market, look at the volatility between 9 and 10:00 eastern. we have gone guns hot again. the fundamentals of emerging markets aren't going to change that takes a long time finally, volatility in the dollar index matched right up with the emerging market etf, that makes sense as there is always a scramble when the numbers change to find those dollars. >>> rick santelli, thank you very much. >>> coming up, round two for jack dorsey on capitol hill. his testimony in front of the house minutes away we'll bring it to you live ♪ with a range of suv's perfect for any adventure, you can b

steve, stay with us we'll continue the discussion and bring in renew norse art cashin and our own rick santelli at the cme in chicago rick, i'll start with you. clearly, what we saw is a bit of a yo-yo session for most of the bond yield, but the 30-year really falling quite significantly lower by the end of that press conference >> no, you're right. whether you look at 10s minus 2s or 30s minus 5s, two favorites on this floor, they both have mild flattening and both have charts up. make sure we pay attention to the scaling. not talking about big moves, but you're right on the spirit of the move, if i take a step back, here's what i see. we failed at 311 on the lead-up to the fed meeting and expecting a rate increase, we got it they removed language with regard to accommodation and i agree with the chairman. i don't know that that's big a deal what we walked away with is a market i wouldn't say that our days of trading over 311 are over. what i find you is need to let this simmer through a bit. to have a chairman, and steve just nailed, it listen, they never have their feet on the ground with re

joining to discuss this today our guests and rick santelli at the cme in chicago oliver, if i start withou, is it kind of encouraging to see the markets picking up again when we've had all the negative trade news over the last week or so >> it's encouraging and sentiment, consumer sentiment which continues to be at an all-time high. business sentiment is at an all-time high, and as a result the markets are ignoring the downside risk of a potential trade war. there's three plausible outlooks, things deteriorate and impact the economic performance which would be bad, things kind of teeter along and nothing really happens and economic performance is strong enough to offset impact of trade, or reason wins out and economic performance is strong and the trade war ends two out of three scenarios are fairly positive for stocks, and i think that's what the market is reflecting right now. >> going to mention that tilray suspended again having started trading briefly. once again suspended and still, up, of course, sharply huge volatility in this number today. the ceo was on "mad money" last night d

. >>> to the bond market, rick santelli is tracking all the action from the floor of the cme group. >> if you look at a two day chart of 10s you see everything you need after the jobs report, we jumped up a bit into the low to mid 290s and we've had a tight range ever since virtually unchanged on the day in europe a little bit of a different story. especially the short end if you look at the shots, the two-year in europe you will see it's hovering around minus 54. the year to date chart shows it's the highest yield, smallest negative it's been since the 28th of february we do have the central bank meeting on thursday along with the bank of england and look at year to date of euro versus the dollar, even though short rates are moving up a bit, maybe mario draghi is going to step up and give us more details on the rest of the removal of the accommodation, but the currency certainly isn't moving to the upside finally another meeting this thursday, the bank of england. there's a chart of the pound versus the dollar. now hovering at its best levels against the greenback since the first day

joining our closing bell exchange today we have hank smith and rick santelli. we obviously had that better than expected wage number on friday >> at center stone we are value investors. we tend to not incorporate shorlt-term moves. we do but clearly it's a discounting mechanism that has felt some what vulnerable. we'll see if they will continue on the gradual approach. >> what's driving yields and the dollar today issues at home or issues abroad? >> i think it's a combination of both i think with central bank meetings coming up, the ecb two weeks from tomorrow. it most likely results in a rate increase as we get close we always find the same dynamics. we see the short end of many of the markets moving higher in yield. we want to pay close attention to the dollar. whether may or august of this year the dollar index wasn't highly correlated with what the fed was doing. it is going to be interesting this time around what some of the global issues a little hotter than they were to watch in particular the pound, euro and the green back >> and sticking with currency

professional at letsmakeaplan.org. >>> let's get out to the cme group in chicago rick san telly is there with the santelliood morning. and thank you. this is going to be a very interesting guest, folks i'd like to welcome professor aaron friedburg. thank you for joining me. >> thank you for having me. >> all right, you have written something lately that dove tails with what many and i discuss regarding the globe. in 1945, the fall of '45 there was a yalta conference where stalin, fdr and churchill reorganized and carved up the world after world war ii something similar may be going on with regard to china and the u.s. tell our viewers your perceptions. >> yalta came at the end of a destruct i have world war. i think we're coming from the end of a period of cooperation and optimism in the united states and the future direction of our relations with china and the question is what will come next. >> in terms of what will come next do you see the possibility of two giant tectonic movements? one china-centered economic domain in the world and the other with the u.s.? to me that was almost inevitable no matter

back to you, carl. >>> let's get to chicago for the santelli exchange. good morning, rickture trading value of the dollar, green back, dollar index is a staple of water cooler conversation these days, and many of the reasons are for the same reasons that you see on the front page of a newspaper or top headlines when you go to the internet, whether it is recalibration of trade from foreign policy standpoint or a trade standpoint. all of this place havoc with the notion the dollar is the reserve currency of the globe. we know this century has undergone many changes, whether the euro currency and its potential ability to crowd out the dollar index in reserve status or new alignments, whether china, japan, russia we know that the reserve currency has certain benefits. maybe one of the big issues is the long term feelings of the benefits in the eyes of those that pay the highest price to give us that benefit right now with the fed raising rates ready to embark on a rate increase, it pays mention to notice if you look at the chart, it is barely up over 2%. we act as though it is

. >> rick santelli is at the cme. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl.much see what is going on with regard to the fixed income markets. on tens it came close to three percent. the trigger? cpi. bob is right. in the context of yesterday's ppi and today's cpi after last friday's wage issues it really did take some of the pressure off. add in other central banks and the foreign exchange markets are having a good day. mario draghi laid out a bit of slowing. he still seems to be hinting they will continue to cut how many purchases are made with regard to quantitative easing. whether he follows through or not, you can see the dollar really got hit pretty hard. that might have been because of interest rates. look at the euro versus the dollar. if you open it up to july we haven't taken out recent august highs yet. the pound versus the dollar is a very aggressive move. you are trying to deal with brexit potentially in the spring. pound responded nicely. unlike the euro, if you open that chart up, you can see we are hovering at some of the best levels since the

rick santelli is tracking the action on the cme. hi, rick. >> hi, melissa it's a very interesting week for auctions we have two-year notes just auctioned. tomorrow's fives wednesday, we'll have a rate increase, seven years pushed until thursday a total of $106 billion. today's dutch auction result for our two-year notes, $37 billion, 2.829. so one bases point, tenth of a basis point. 100th of a basis point under 2.83, the highest yield at a dutch auction, going all the way back to 2010 and what's really interesting here is, that if you look at the yield, 2.829, it's roughly in line with the one issue market but the problem is, it didn't move and it's 2.44, worst since december 2008. 13.4 for direct. the real big variable was the bid to cover we give it a "d" as in dog tomorrow will be five years. back to you, tyler. >> thank you very much, mr. g out in the market, plus china calling off trade talks with the u.s. after the latest tariffs on china went into effect and add to that investors bracing for another rate hike that probably wi

essentially flat at the moment joining our closing bell exchange today victoria fernandez, and our own rick santelli at the cme incheck as always matt, i'll start with you. the broader markets coming off their lows today and in general the broader economy justifies the highs we've seen recently. >> yeah, the economic data has been good. the question is can it continue based on what we're seeing out of china, and was all this built-up in expectations of a trade war? but i certainly think this market is built on momentum right now. we were worried about six stocks trading us to highs for so long. sow nou it now it's two or three names, apple and amazon, for example. oil was a perfect example of the momentum topped out, went back to 80, now it's back over 70 again. so if you're a trader in this market you reel want to trade this momentum that's out there >> let's talk about the tech momentum that's there. victoria, we mentioned apple and amazon a lot, but google and amazon are not far behind. it's worked for so many years of the bull run still the case in. >> it really has and long-term tech is the pla

. >>> head over to the bond market and rick santelli that ten-year holding above 3% on that yield, rick it absolutely is. if we start theearlier maturities two year and now five year coming back from 2008, we'll call it ten years. that ten year you mentioned, opened it up to may and the high yield and if we take that out, we'll be shooting all the way back to the summer of 2011 do keep in mind 50 basis points increase and 25 on the way and ten year up 66 basis points for the year 30 is only 48. melissa, back to you >> rick, thanks. >>> would you let your insurance company track your wearable device in order for you to get a better rate? how it works and how she plans tohae e cef fe insurance. what do you mean it's not working out, craig? i just introduced you to my parents. psst! craig and sheila broke up. what, really? craig and shelia broke up!? no, craig!? what happened? i don't know. is she okay? ♪ craig and sheila broke up! craig and sheila!? ♪ as long as office gossip travels fast, you can count on geico saving folks money. craig and sheila broke up! what!? fifteen minutes could s

joining us now for our closing bell exchange to talk more about our tough tech week, rick santelli at the cme group in chicago. the fact it's two down days, 1% days for the nasdaq right now, what does that tell you, steve >> i think people wanted to lock in some profits and say, hey, let me clip it before we approach that going into end of year you get a little skiddish, there's a chase for performance. but remember there's also a chase to lock in what they've already gained they don't want to give it back. so i think this is totally normal you had them up on capitol hill yesterday. i would look in reversal china large cap tech >> you were pretty positive, so is this a surprise to you this week >> no, i think you have to -- if you look at the chart of s&p, if you look at the chart of tech stocks, you do get these give-and-takes within that complex, within this sector and within the overall marketplace just look at it in the s&p we're only a little off of 1% off the historic highs in the s&p. so this to me is healthy, natural, you want to see a little give back people back at their cha

. >> watching that closely, bertha, thanks >>> let's get to the bond pit, rick santelli, good morning past you. some important points in europe. let's start out here looking at 10s. once we jump the 3% broom so to speak on wednesday, really firm. basically 306 to 309 coming into our time we pop right backup as we see on the one week chart looking overseas, well, look at two-yr bun yield minus 51 that's the highest level on a closing basis since february of this year. if you move out the curve, their curve is flatten as well you can see the year to date of 10-yr does not look quite as aggressive 51 positive bases point and anything over 50 is intense for the german structure of rates. germany warrants those rates much higher actually it is the rest of europe that's going to deal with that movement, should we start to get more aggressive. in front of the fed, the dollar index is under heavy scrutiny. you see the dollar index there that's basically at the bottom of the bottom of the four month range. we want to see when the quarter point gets delivered where most people think it will on

. >> thank you >>> a news alert in the bond market right now seven-year notes, rick santelli is tracking it at the cme. what's demand like >> good thing i'm he in a generous note. i gave it a d. d for dog. this didn't go well. probably bad timing with the rate hike and many investors obviously waiting to go into secondary market instead so 31 billion seven year completing 106 billion in supply the yield at the dutch auction 3r 3.034. here's the problem, the high of the day was 3.03 in one issue market it was trading around 3.02 and a half so it tailed badly it doesn't end there 2.45 recovered since march of this year. 2.53 option average. indirects light at 62 but not much and directs, they were light at 12.8 ten auction average of 14. no metric even made it to rough averages of ten auctions therefore, we want to see how the market responds not only to higher rates but of course to supply in the rear-view mirror tyler, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much president trump conducted a long and wide ranging press conference in new york city addressing among many other topics the status

rick santelli is tracking the action for us at the cme what is the tdemand like today? >> it wasn't so bad. ten year was the best of breed yesterday. today an above average auction it was 30 year ponds, we're adding to an already open issue. and the yield at the dutch auction 3.088. really smack dab in the middle of the one issue bid and offer spread 2.34 bid to cover. about 10 auction average 61.7 on indirect direct a bit above average dealers take a small number, 27%. so b-minus what it really means in a bigger picture is 72 billion out the door, interest rates normally they selloff a little bit after an auction, we'll have to wait and see. but most maturities right now are highly unchanged or down one basis point due to the weak inflation data this morning. back to you. >> thank you, rick >>> turning to the latest on hurricane florence, now downgraded to a category 2, it could make landfall late tonight or early tomorrow morning with winds up to 110 miles per hour and effects will still be felt into next week contessa brewer is in north carolina >> reporter: yeah, we

rick santelli is tracking the action at the cme. hey, rick. >> hi.n enter day at 10s, it looks like this thing petered out but it didn't. sure, we're unchanged on the day but still up 6 on the week look at one week of 10s. it looks pretty solid. it's jumped over 3% and of course with the fed meeting coming up, everybody is watching that yield curve it's steepened a bit but the real key is can we fit more tightenings in without inverting it it's been all about foreign exchange there's been central banking activity let's look at some april charts. if you look at the dollar index, you can tell that it is hovering at a level that is so significant, 94, and traders are very cognizant of that now, the good news is against the yen, as you see on this chart, it's ready to test those july highs, not far away at 11211 112.88 that would put the comp back at the beginning of the year. but the euro versus the dollar the euro at the best level since about the second week of june and it looks as though the dollar index isn't finding much support today either tyler,

. >>> we go now to the bond market where rick santelli tracks the action he's at the cme. >> everyone paying close attention. the intraday chart a touch of 3% and we backed away as we sit 298 and started chart mid-april and you can see towards the end of april had the first close above 3% and 11 touches on a close of 3% or higher and one would have thought more if you look at year to date chart of the european two year, sure it's at minus 54 basis points but close to the highest yields of the year going all the way back towards february and if we look at the dollar index, not a good week. it's still down about a half a cent on the week however, up over a third of a cent today and did pull it out as we, once again, are approaching that 95 mark this time, though, from the bottom up. becky, back to you >> rick, thank you very much have a great weekend. >>> up next, looking back at the financial crisis as we mark the tenth anniversary of the collapse of lehman brothers. what lessons have we learn elea? and the story of a woman who began a new job that day won't want to miss that. obvious.

for now, let's head to the bond pits and rick santelli he's in chicago at the cme group. >> good morningat we came down a bit. actually, two-year note yield came down. it's still up two basis points the fed decision, initially, after a slight pause, front rates down you can see it on the one week of tens even though they popped up as well maybe that's the point double tops and double bottoms are a biggie in the fixed income markets. if you look at the chart starting in may, you could srg at this point, it's a double top. it's still awfully close to 311. traders have to make a tough decision does this back away and become a double top you trade much under 295, that's how it would be perceived. the next couple of sessions are really important we always like to talk about the yield curve. indeed, it did flatten a bit after the fed yesterday in removal of accommodation as the stock market was receiving the accommodation. they seem to have righted themselves the one-week chart shows it was a big beneficiary of the fed meeting. if you open to early july, it had a nice bounce off 94 right aroun

. >> rick santelli, thank you for the update there >> let's talk a little casino stocks we'll do it ahead confident. but it's not kayak confident. kayak searches hundreds of travel and airline sites to find the best flights for us. so i'm more than confident. kayak. search one and done. when it might be time to buy or sell? with fidelity's real-time analytics, you'll get clear, actionable alerts about potential investment opportunities in real time. fidelity. open an account today. fidelity. this is moving day with the best in-home wifi experience and millions of wifi hotspots to help you stay connected. and this is moving day with reliable service appointments in a two-hour window so you're up and running in no time. show me decorating shows. this is staying connected with xfinity to make moving... simple. easy. awesome. stay connected while you move with the best wifi experience and two-hour appointment windows. click, call or visit a store today. >>> gambling revenue is soaring 17% in august, the largest growth this year and it marks 25 straight months of rising revenue, but individual

neala richard, tom frost, and our own rick santelli at the cme group. you've got this trade headline which the market reacted negativity to but you've also got these solid job numbers. do it from a point of strength and we certainly have that in the jobs market. >> the jobs market, the numbers we saw today were exceptional in many ways. we saw really strong headline growth, higher wages there was some weakness in the manufacturing sector, which points us back to what we're seeing now is escalating trade tensions and the question for the administration is how much are you willing to risk what you have in your hands, which is really solid economic growth that's buffering a really long bull market. how much of that are you willing to risk in terms of trying to get a better strtrade position t china, and i think the market is still waiting to see what wins out at the end of the day. strong economic fundamentals or trade tensions as we saw just today. >> tom, is that how you view this market reaction dow is down 51 points. we're well-off the lows. it's a bli

. >>> meantime let's continue the broader discussion with our exchange rick santelli is at the cme inhicago. good afternoon kenny, i'll start with you markets are down today, particularly the nasdaq. >> let's just talk about this. the rest of the world is under pressure you have china potentially slowing down the whole emerging market disaster that's potentially out there. this money is going to come to the safety trade when you think about the u.s., it's a safety trade. therefore, we're not nearly getting hit as hard, although if this continues, this contagion around the world, it's only a matter of time before they start to come here and reasus prices look, you're seeing a lot in tech, certainly what's happening in washington for sure but people are also taking the opportunity to take some money out of the really high performing tech names and either put that money and hold it on the side or reinvest it in some of the other new emerging ideas that are starting to present themselv themselves >> is this short-term phenomenon or the start of a potential new trend as we go into the fall

have a news alert at the bond market right now $35 billion in a three-year bond up for auction rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. okay what's the demand like this on one, rick? >> well, i wish it was better. i gave it a charlie minus. a c minus. just a smidge below average. first leg of refunding that would be $73 billion in total. the auction sequence today threes, tomorrow tens, followed up by 30s. 2.821 was right around the middle of a wide one issued bid offer spread 2.68 bid to cover. that's a bit light 46.3 on indirects. also a bit under the 49% ten auction average. the only thing that overperformed just a little or directs a 10.7 dealers take a rather large 43% of this auction so c-minus today. next on tap, drars 23 billion. ten of this year note is tomorrow melissa lee, back to you ten years after the fall of lehman brothers. how the financial crisis spread from wall street to main street. a look at whether we are any safer right now. as a category four hurricane bears down on the carolinas, our own jackie deangeles is in the path of the storm with a look at how residents

rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. what are you seeing? >> you see the markets with interest rates get higher moving into the fed meeting and even with delivering on the rate increase, it's sliding back out look a the at the two-day of 30s only maturity unchanged on the day. not in the rest of the ma turts have big drops but down a basis points or two. we lost ground after we hit the high close of the year at 311. if you continue to think about the globe right now and the italians and the french and how they have deficits, one week of italian 10-year certainly shows you the movement and they aren't on the highest yields of the day hovering around 3.14 or there abouts certain markets futures hope open look at the one week of dollar index this is interesting. because the dollar index has given up a good chunk of gains today. but as you see on that charge it's closing up a solid solid two thirds of a sent maybe 3/4s of a sent when the numbers are in melissa lei back two. >> rick thank you. >> zuckerberg is not going to like this. ffb uncoveri

rick santelli is tracking the action >> demand was excellent. i gave this auction an a-any mous - a-minus. yes, 10 billion of ten yield at this auction 2.957% 2.955 was the low. and the offer side was 2.96 when the auction went off price really nice. and if you look at all the metrics, 2.58 bid to cover, 63.9 in-directs 13.4 directs all nicely above 10 auction averages primary dealers him on toonly t 22.6% of the acheuction and we're adding to an auction originally put forth a month ago. but this is the way you move paper. and this close to testing 3%, maybe inverse torvestors have sg on their minds we'll have to it with a and swae >>> and we're watching hurricane florence as it barrels towards the carolinas. about 25 million americans are in its projected path. kaitlyn mcgrath is joining us with the latest on the storm's path >> florence has maintained its major category 4 strength, sustained winds at 130 miles an hour but florence is expected to strengthen as we head through the next 24 to 36 hours as it approaches the carolina coast b friday

. >>> let's get to the bond market rick santelli is tracking the action at the cme. >> hi.-day chart, a lot of consolidation around where we settled yesterday at 3.06% if you look at the barkley's charts, starting may 1st, and may is when we had the high yields of the year thus far, especially in the long maturities, you can see that the barclay's investment grade you're look at there has really nar b narrowed that means no real pressure. the barometer is falling high yield is even tightening faster this is a guy sign, that higher rates shouldn'tadversely affec the markets. the dollar index since may, it looks nervous, but it is holding around $94 back to you. >> thank you very much >>> jamie dimon warning that a cyber attack is the biggest threat to the u.s. financial system how worried should we be >>> google has become a popular target for president trump he has new ammunition today. we'll tell you what its d ian bring you the details when "power lunch" continues. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ what if we could turn trash into money? plastic bank is doing just that, by exchanging plastic for d