host: democrat line, ohio. caller: i wondered if climate change will be a big issue in any of these races? guest: it is a question a lot of liberal activists want to care about, but it is not coming up in democratic campaigns, for the most part. if you look at the messaging on the airwaves, democrats are talking about health care. they are not talking about the environment, not talking about climate change. while that issue energizes base voters and younger democratic voters, you are not seeing it as a huge issue. host: one viewer on twitter says any politician that will publicly support medicare for all will not be getting my vote. does that topic even come up anymore? guest: a lot of democrats are now embracing a more liberal vision of health care. medical or -- medicare for all is a safe catchphrase. raiseicans are trying to the specter of socialized medicine. that is the attack republican candidates are employing. but there was a study that showed half of all democratic ads in the country are focused on hea

guest: the only democratic set -- seat in the tossup column, democrat -- a democrat is leaving to run for governor and is doing pretty well. -- this isvive the rural, southern minnesota, the farm bill. -- belt. even though donald trump won by about 15 points, less likely to thanue trump believers people who cast votes against tiller clinton, and they are skeptical of tariffs. -- against hillary clinton and they are skeptical of tariffs. democrats probably have a better chance of holding the seat. the republicans nominated a candidate who robs them of their ability to cast him as an outsider. democrats -- the republican candidate spent a lot of his adult career as a congressional staffer. and working for the congressional -- the bureau of printing and engraving. his status as a son of a former congressman prevent republicans from running cleanly against the democrat as a carpetbagger. host: new jersey, john, democrat line. am interested in to republican incumbent congressman andew jersey, tom mcarthur, leonard lance. what is the story on those? guest: i love these races because oftenti

we are not a democratic organization. we are just an electoral like planned parenthood for emily's list or league of conservative voters. we have a set of priorities that are important to us, and at this particular case, we decided we would not support candidates that supported the confirmation of a sexual assault or -- assaulter. that was a pretty straightforward thing for us. but does not mean we do not want them to win. it means we're focused on seven other seats. what were you doing in those states, and was the announcement more of an effort to drive up donor interest? mr. cecil: when we were asked about it, we said we had not been involved in those races, that we were planning on being ,nvolved in the tennessee race and then we decided to halt that. for us, it was not a stunt because we are not raising money off of that. if anything, you might have traditional democratic donors that would be upset by it. for us, it was just a statement of values. >> did you gain money from voters who were proud of that stance? >> cer

it is called the democrat party. i watch what they say -- the democratic party. in many cases, those are the people who want to make it look as good as possible. it is the democrat party which does not read well. the other reads better. we will call it the democrat party, and it is openly inviting millions of illegal aliens to break our laws, violate our borders, and overwhelm our nation. [booing] pres. trump: the democrats want caravans and like them. a lot of people say, "i wonder who started them?" mexico has been so incredible. the leaders of mexico, thank you. do you know why? mexico now respects the leadership of the united states. thank you, mexico, and we appreciate it. what they want -- and by the way, we started the wall and it is moving along. i want to build it rapidly. i can do it in a year. we did $1.6 billion. we have another 1.6 billion and it sounds like a lot, when you are going for a thousand miles. the wall is moving. i want to approve the wall. [cheering] pres. trump: the democrats do not care about what the extremist agenda will do to your h

democrats are angry. republicans are afraid the president is ginning that up. >> well, except for democrats are also extremely afraid of another two years of a republican-run congress that completely looks away from anything that trump does. >> don. >> hold on. i'm going to let alice jump in first right after this. because the president has the megaphone right now, the bullhorn. >> you are right. >> he can gin up the fear more than any democrat. >> no question. we should be afraid. >> don, you say there as if this just happened to come about. where have these people been for the last year and a half. >> this was clearly coordinated by those on the left. unfortunately, it will backfire. >> come on, alice. >> if you remember, donald trump ran and won on building a wall and mexico will pay for it. i knew that would never happen. >> alice, you knows that won't happen. >> you're saying the migrants were organized by democrats? >> democrats clearly are trying to paint the optics that this president is being rou

that is a county moving democrat. well turnout vote -- bodes for democrats.n terms of republicans, i would ine to see how anoka county, the northern suburbs of the twin cities, how that is doing in terms of voter turnout. those are some of the things i would be keying on. if i were looking at races, if it looks like erik paulsen is going to win versus dean phillips, that is going to give me some areas. so key in on the 3rd congressional district. that represents an affluent suburb. patterns in terms of voter turnout will be important they are. and traditionally minnesota, in presidential and congressional races, is usually at the top or near the top in terms of voter turnout. a few years ago, our presidential turnout was nearly 78%. we had pretty depressed turnout the last three or four election cycles, but still in the top states of the country. i am expecting heavy turnout in this election, which may be a pattern we see nationwide. host: care to make any predictions about those competitive house guest: i was never saying the first district, too close to say

themselves a moderate democrat versus a progressive democrat?eanne: this is something i find identifies our state today and increasingly the country when you mentioned the democratic already. we mentioned our incumbent governor who is running for his third term, andrew cuomo, usually defined as a moderate democrat who faced the primary challenge from the progressive cynthia nixon for this last primary. four years earlier it was a progressive, and we have seen that split not just at the gubernatorial level but all the democratic party in new york state and i think increasingly in the country. we saw in 2016 between people like hillary clinton and bernie sanders, where there is this divide in the democratic party. establish moderates" and the more energized and left wing the -- wing of the base of the party. the party is animated and energized, which makes it more difficult for people like andrew cuomo who are more moderate. and we see this split in new york, in front and center in this election, and i think again we see it around the country. i s

a democrat. imo longer a democrat. will fight like tooth and nail to convert every person i know to a republican because they are right. they are not a fighter and liar and trying to set up a man who is a good man. they will do anything. they will do anything to get in the power. unscrupulous them and the media are completely -- showed all their colors and the nation shot -- sat and watched and are furious about it. host: the president will be in florida to address the association of the chief of police. look for our website for more information. flying back to washington to attend and be part of the ceremonial swearing-in of brett kavanaugh, formally sworn in by chief justice john roberts and the retiring anthony kennedy. that happened saturday. that ceremonial swearing-in will happen tonight. you can see that on c-span. listen for our c-span radio app and find out more information about it at c-span.org. for the first half hour of our program, state of u.s. politics after the kavanaugh confirmation. you can let us kn

where democrats need to make in roads with trump voters who lost their way with the democratic party in 2016. >> host: both have a military veteran centered focus. what do you see happening? >> guest: we heard about democratic candidates were veterans, bruce is not but he's using them in his advertisements. there is a compelling argument that veterans are good candidates because of their ability or so-called ability to work across the aisle. we talked about how when they were in the trenches no one asked if they were democrat or republican, that is a constant refrain regardless which side of the aisle they are running on. >> host: this is diane in minnesota. go ahead. >> caller: good morning, long time. st. cloud, minnesota. ever heard of it? can't believe how terrible, how terrible. all i have to say this morning is please, people, vote republican. we need to clean the mess up. we have to get the train moving and clean the mess up. please vote republican. >> host: jason lewis versus dfl nominee andrew craig. give us a cap on that. >> a rematch from 2016 to see how candidates do thin

caller: straight democrat. democrats work for the working people.ot for the superrich like republicans. they care about people and like fairness and honesty. they don't want to demonize immigrants or black people. unhinged.s have gone they are trying to scare people, frighten people. they are just not there. they are so dishonest. host: are there certain people you are voting for when you say you will vote for democrats? caller: i will vote for senator jacky rosen in nevada. republican dean heller lied nsout protecting nevada childcare. he promised he would not repeal the affordable health care act and he did it because of pressure from donald trump. host: what is it about jacky rosen that you support? what policies does she espouse you find yourself in line with? caller: she wants to protect social security. she wants to protect the affordable health care act and the wages of working people. host: one of the issues coming out and moving forward to november, the confirmation of brett kavanaugh to the supreme court. both parties looking at that issue

the democrats know that. i'll be voting for him because he is a man of character and integrity and i will be voting for him because i know that he can be relied on to uphold the rule of law and the constitution. and i invite not just my republican but my independent-thinking democrat colleagues to join me. it's not too late to say no to the politics of personal destruction. it's not too late to say no to unchecked partisanship, and it's not too late to put this eminently qualified nominee on the supreme court. mr. president, i yield the floor.e presiding officer: the senator for colorado. mr. bennet: thank you, mr. president. the nomination of judge kavanaugh by donald trump has left this body and the american people deeply divided. but i think it is also -- it has also united every american in the belief that this cannot be the standard for how the united states senate or the federal government should operate. this cannot be how our founders expected us to consider lifetime appointments to the supreme court

democratic congressman jerry nadler of new york who would if the democrats take the house, become theudiciary chairman has already talked about launching an investigation into alleged misconduct by brett kavanaugh. nancy pelosi says she wants to see the fbi interviews and the second background check.it doesn't some like this will end. >> we will know in november if that makes sense. i hope everybody running for the house in his purple districts willasked , will be asked the question, will you support in teaching brettin imp kavanaugh. i never campaigned against the colleague in my life. that's about to change. i'm going to go throughout the country, and let people in these purple states, red states where trump won, know what i think about this process. >>chris: we were talking before we came on the air and i see you have a list of all the people that the president said were on the list of potential nominees. what's your point? >> here's my point. this was a list compiled in november but he put it out during the campaign.there are twentysomething people on this list. i'm asking chuck s

if you're not a democrat, the democrats are silent.go after judge kavanaugh for defendant stormy but not ivanka when the c word is used, not you when you're attacked. i can't imagine that happening to michelle obama ever or hillary clinton even. >> the supposed party of women is completely silent here. i'm waiting for anyone to speak up against this on the democrats side. we have heard absolute crickets from them. it's disgusting and it's not that shocking anymore because we know that there is no low too low for the left, for the media, for hollywood. when it comes to the president and the first lady and the entire first family, i don't care what side of the political aisle you're on. the first lady of the united states deserves respect. this is disgusting and it should be condemned by everyone. >> sean: i don't hear any calls for fbi investigations of keith ellison likely did with judge kavanaugh. those allegations were so over-the-top, it was patently absurd. i don't see them ever defending melania trump ever. >> double standard acro

i do not blame democratic party. i'm glad -- i live in california and i wish i could go to other states and travel. i have to work every day but i wish i could go to other states and travel and talk to some of these republicans. i have three sons, i don't have any daughters, i tell my sons, if you don't do anything wrong, you have nothing to worry about. i don't -- i don't get it. if you're -- if brett kavanaugh was so innocent -- >> host: okay, you know what, joe, i'm going to stop you right there. we are going to brett kavanaugh's house, he's making his way to the suv's that are parked outside of his door, presumably on his way to the supreme court to be sworn in by the chief justice. >> caller: that's a shame, that's a shame. >> host: we are watching here, we saw him just make his way out of the house, the suv door is opening, let's just watch and see if we can get a glimpse of the next supreme court justice. >> host: brett kavanaugh leaving his home with his daughters and looked like his wife we assume on on his

the other democratic senator who went the other direction joe manchin, democrat from west virginia, who is running in another very trump-friendly state. he cast the 51st vote, but he is not getting a lot of mileage out of it. we've heard from donald trump jr. saying that they will continue to go after him. mitch mcconnell said that manchin will continue to be a target. the question is does that help him in west virginia on the ground. and then there is the longer term view around folks like susan collins. collins was not just the final yes vote, she was to democrats the knife. she was the closure, the person who really ended this thing. and already she is under enormous pressure from a crowd funding effort, from protesters and from a democratic base who sees her as the number one target in maine. here's what she said to us about that over the weekend. >> the crowd funding effort was clearly an attempt to intimidate me. and i don't react well to that. they have wrraised a great dealf money. but the political calculus does not enter into my decision. >> reporter: susan collins is the only

first back into the democrats tried to argue the supreme court should confirm a democrat, tried to argue that, a supreme court justice in any, even numbered year.. then they were reminded justice kagan, breyer and souter were all confirmed during midterm election years and that argument evaporated. next, democrats said the process should be delayed because too few documents were available from judge kavanaugh's past public service. then they received the most pages of documents ever produced for supreme court nomination, so guess what camet next year or goalposts move down the field and democrats called for a delay because they were too many documents for them to read. i wish this fight could remain in the realm of normalcy but when none of these tactics work, when judge kavanaugh demonstrated his wife acknowledged brilliance open-mindedness and collegiality at his confirmation hearings, some chose a darker road. the politics of personal destruction will willfully unleashed. i spoke at length about the under headways senate democrats are treated dr. ford and are allegation, and brief or

democrats are not like you. they are you have republicans, who on one hand are trying to other the election, and on the other hand, they are trying to become democrats when it comes to the issue. you have more republicans now running on protecting pre-existing conditions than you do republicans running on the tax bill, and i think that is telling in terms of where the american people are. >> the point you make is true. the one thing i would ask you is what are you seeing in the data since republicans pivoted to this argument? you mentioned about some of the angry mobs. we have seen in public polling, some of the numbers look better for republicans. we have seen president trump's numbers picking up a little bit. you set the strategy of running on the tax cuts wasn't working, but is this working? mr. cecil: immediately after the kavanaugh hearings, you did see some changes, particularly on the polling. even in the last, i think, three days you have had two pulls in tennessee which showed in the margin of error rat

of those, only two are democratic seats. so that would tend to benefit democrats. but if they end up winning the house by five or six, seven, eight seats, that is not a blue wave. in terms of the senate, i think republicans are looking pretty good. tennessee is looking like marsha blackburn can prevail. ted cruz as well. that would take republicans to 50 seats. and then you have how many, about six toss-up races, only two of those are republicans. nevada looks pretty good for republicans. for dean haller. so in the senate, republicans could actually expand their majority by one or two seats. 52 to 53 and that would be a big victory for republicans. and for donald trump. >> so donna edwards, what do democrats need to do right now? >> i think it is the same thing that democrats needed to do all along, which is that individual democrats focussed in on their race, on the issues that matter to democratic voters, and getting turnout. something that we have not been so good at in midterm elections. and i think that is what is different here. if you look over the course of

so real democrats shouldn't vote for that democratic candidate. real progressives should instead write in another name. and each district's mailer has picked another fail farerly well-known local democrat who has run for office in the last few years as opposed to the write-in candidate that real progressives should pick instead of voting for actual democrat that's on the ballot. it's clever, right? this is apparently a fairly expensive campaign. these are professional looking flyers and ads. they're the product of actual local research where they had to pick seemingly plausible alternative candidates to try to undermine the democrat who is actually on the ballot. "seattle times" though has started to pick apart the scheme, and they're seemingly finding evidence of it all over the state. this republican dirty tricks campaign all over washington state to try to split the democratic vote and depress the democratic vote. apparently this one is an effort to try to flip the state legislature in washington, or at least to stop democrats from taking more

to democratic voters. but they are, in fact, in 32nd campaign ad, pretty -- 30-second campaign ads, able to sound moderate and appeal to those across the aisle. to get back to the main point, the social identity factors of how we identify as people really do help drive our partisanship in pretty fundamental ways. host: you mentioned 30-second campaign ads. was from sanler diego, in that race featuring duncan hunter trying to hold onto his seat. this is one of the ads being run in that race. this is the group vote vets, encouraging voters to vote against the congressman, who is also a veteran. >> they say you can't pick your family members. >> republican covers men and his wife are accused of spending $250,000 in campaign funds on themselves. >> whenever she did, it will be looked at too, i'm sure, but i didn't do it. >> completely throws his wife under the bus. >> and individual who was described as having a "personal relationship" with duncan hunter. >> you can't pick your family members, but you can pick

a democratic congress would. that's their message. you've got the healthcare. the thing is it is preexisting conditio conditions. if you are a democrat talk about single payer. you're looking at swing voters. that's what's important. i mean i understand the caller's position, but these two parties, they spend a lot of money on polling and focus groups and, you know, occasionally they are wrong on messaging, but they are more often closer to right than wrong. >> let's talk about republican messaging especially a message that we have heard in past cycles, the message nancy pelosi, this is an nrcc ad tying, new york democrat anthony delgado to nancy pelosi. new york's 19th district. >> paying too much in taxes? antonio delgado will make you pay more. he pledged to join nancy pelosi in raising taxes, costing up state families 2700 a year. worse? delgado supports pelosi's radical government takeover of healthcare. to pay for it? they would have to double income taxes on every single person in america. just like cuomo

, democrats now personified mostly by progressive democrats like kamala harris, cory booker that wouldyour set-up for the presidential in 2020. here in georgia and florida you've got a couple of basically progressive democrats, african american, stacy abrams in georgia, andrew gillum in florida who had denied that he's a socialist running against two candidates who have aligned themselves with donald trump. so it's a very conservative candidate running against the progressive. the other thing that i should point out, stacy abrams, for example, in georgia has spent 5 years enlisting black minority women, younger voters, getting them on voting rolls, a test of the democrats and the energy of progressive opposition to donald trump and she's going to be an excellent test of whether the democrats by running to the left but running with a lot of enrolled voters and energy can defeat the republicans. paul: it's really interesting, both sides, republicans and democrats, candidates emerged almost from the base, base of their party, desantis and kemp wrapped around trump to beat centrist bush ca

not easy for a two-term incumbent democrat. >> democrat rolling keep in rural conservative missouri in of every vote to send her back to the senate. >> we're realist about this. it's that anybody believes i'm going to be a able to win jasper county. it's close. >> it's a political miracle this democrat represents this red state president trump won by nearly to points. she first won in 2006, a democratic wave year, and again in 2012 after her gop opponent talked of legitimate rape. like many democrats in tough races, she tries to stay focussed on health care and preserving obama's protections for gop conditions. her opponent says he supports them, too, but he's part of a lawsuit that could strike down those protections. >> we think there needs to be a shake up in both parties. and voters were very adamant about that. this campaign is really about that. >> holly is a trump supporter. elected attorney general two years ago. she launches one liners at her 38-year-old ivy league challenger. >> i'm going to try not to hold his youth and inexperience against him. >> she's running on her exper

the democrats reelection. years in which to torment and stifle him and they will he'll have sufficient support in the congress to do anything wants in january 2021. liz: it's starting to backfire on the republicans in clinton-lewinsky. the democrats got five seats. what can the president do? >> there is nothing he can do legally. he can negotiate with them and say you keep asking general kelly to come up here to testify, you keep interfering with my cabinet members. you have jeff sessions, i'm giving you a hypothetical with forget about rebuilding of jfk airport. of course he can do that. you can negotiate in any way he wants. but he can't interfere with the actual investigation nor could a republican senate. liz: could he delay cooperating with the probe? >> yes. but eventually if subpoenas were served they would have to be complied with. the court will not rule on the pro priority of the subpoena. but fit's subpoena to the cabinet member and the president says don't comply, that person will be ordered to. li

i mean, democrats are.ity, we'll see if the politics have shifted for them. it's been 12 years since democrats won the majority in 2006. remember, when democrats had the majority last time, they tried to pass a cap and trade bill, which would presumably help this massive crisis that scientists are warning about. and many democrats lost their seats, not many, but a few lost their seats after republicans ran campaigns saying that they were looking to hike the cost of energy. so we'll see if democrats have a durable enough majority -- >> nancy pelosi -- >> what about republicans running on deregulation, how much is that helping campaigns across the country right now, jake? >> it's tough to say. it's one of many issues that republicans are talking about. i think it's not a verien mating issue for some people. for others, it's been help bel in the business and energy front. we see republicans across the country trying to ruin their democratic opponents across the board. and if you talk to republican operatives,

the democrats. also, republicans are excited because after kavanaugh there was this momentum. now you have the caravan coming across, which also is going to excite in public and voters, as well. i think we pretty much know republicans are going to keep the senate. i still don't know where the house is going to go. i think anybody -- it's got to be -- >> harris: when you see that caravan being in excitement point for the electorate on the right side, you mean the issue of illegal immigration? the wall and every thing that goes with it? >> lawrence: we know the campaign was centered over immigration. i think republicans constantly win that issue. because they didn't deliver on issues like health care, you will get democrats to show up for that. now because this is so close to the midterms, i think republicans will be going to the polls. >> harris: adrienne, if you will allow me come i want to show a couple things first before you and i talk. as lawrence has pointed out, it's a mixed bag. but it isn't

well yeah i didn't know the democratic you have to really were mad i think i figure that the democrats are really resisting trump i think is nothing short of absolutely comical there assisting and so many ways where you are live in l.a. . or get somebody to go to the carcases every day are going to be politics i want to jump in here after a short break we'll continue our discussion on chaotic politics day with r.t. . and your phone pal. coming up that. no more i. will get more long. in some plan there is a trade in young girls sold into an underground sex in the. sometimes but the people they trust the most. and. it's not. you know world a big part of. law and conspiracy it's time to wake up to dig deeper to hit the stories that mainstream media refuses to tell more than ever we need to be smart we need to stop slamming the door on the back and shouting past each other it's time for critical thinking it's time to fight for the middle for the troops the time is now we're watching closely watching the hawks. know that. this is crude oil. so they need to actually physically pulled it out

and social democrats must cooperate better. for their part the s.p.d. are also licking their wounds after a terrible outcome in sunday's regional vote their leader andrea nonis whose future in the job has also been questioned it was clear that lessons have to be learned at the national level. he didn't fret so we are absolutely determined to ensure that we can continue our work in the coalition it needs more commitment and more determination to leave behind the problems of the past few months. for gun rights and. opposition parties are already seizing their chance to capitalize america's weakness. for market america is giving up the wrong jobs this won't make government more stable it will merely slow the death of the coalition. for long. but the much diminished grand coalition will limp along for now with the severely weakened chancellor at its head there could yet be a public battle for the soul of the c.d.u. . joining me now from up on him and he is political correspondent sparrow a welcome to our must the what do make us do

ford's democrat democratic congress woman, the democratic side of the judiciary committee and presumably the politically connected lawyers they recommended to dr. ford. and somehow, somehow it ended up in the press? dr. ford's plea for privacy was brushed aside, a predictable media circus was launched. of course, the questionable and concerning handling of this matter didn't stop there. in her testimony, dr. ford seemed surprised that chairman grassley had offered her legal team a number of more discrete and less burdensome ways to share her story if she preferred. the chairman had offered to fly investigators out to florida-- to california or anywhere else for a private interview at a time and a place of dr. ford's choosing. apparently, mr. president, neither of our democratic colleagues or the lawyers they recommended felt it was necessary to make these options clear to dr. ford. she told the committee, quote, i wasn't clear on what the offer was. i would have been happy to speak with you out there, referring to california. it wasn't clear to me that was the case. so, mr. president, le

there are a lot of grumbling democrats and democratic voters. the democratic grass roots are excited about the race. it's texas, ted cruz. it's a dynamic candidate. he skateboards into rallies. what's not to love. right? but within the party there are these grumblings. he's getting a lot of money. part of that is rooted in the idea that it looks like he can't win, but there's a rumor or sense that he has higher ambitions. even if he doesn't win, what's he doing with all this money? is he going to make a play in 2020? everybody else is running for president. why not this guy who captured this attention? that's what a lot of democrats in washington and democrats working on other races that are in more of a tossup position don't like. >> you see ted cruz in the ad playing up the immigration issue. will be saying i'll reach out to the middle. ted cruz says no. >> i think democratic turnout is going to be very, very high in november. now, the good news in texas is that there are a lot more conservatives than liberals. typically in texas a democrat in

hopeful sign for the democrats.f. we're hopeful they do. >> the need to cut social security for the long haul. painting republicans as the party that wants to rip a hole in the safety net. mcconnell did say it's unlikely that a unified government can go after medicare. democrats want to go in the spakt opposite direction, expand social security, medicare to all and raise taxes to cover t this is shaping up to be a significant battle between two ideologies in the long haul. >> and the president with a third view. if democrats take the house you'll have three derch opinions. >> i don't think there's any doubt in anyone's mind that at some point sarah sander is going to leave. it would be normal for her to leave around this time. people speculated she might leave after the midterms but no speculation about who is going to row pla-- replace her. i think we've had two press briefings since labor day and the president has been on a media blitz where he's talking almost every single day. he's all over the place. and there

but in terms of getting those democrats, those blue-collar democrats, those blue dog democrats, rust belt democrats, elizabeth warren is not getting them. is goingmocratic party to have to make some tough decisions, i think, as 2020 comes. >> it is a similar situation to what republicans faced in 2016 with their primary. >> well, we have a lot of candidates. effectively able to use that saturation, you know, pitting 16 people against one another and being the lone standout. we suffer from other problems, but you know, we have our own stuff. yes?ok, let me say -- [inaudible] [laughter] this happens in class too. i'm not going to pick on these two as what it means to be a democrat, because as essie was pointing out, what is it to be a republican in the air of trump? is at the trump party? is of the republican party? sts liket the pragmati these two, and they give you solutions for whatever policy issue there might be, but could get electedir ilk today? if you are a democrat and progressive, that seems to be where the trend is, but the clintons of the 1990's, from when hillary was in th

the probability is that democrats will win the house.cause i think it's reasonable given everything we know but number one, there are late october and early november surprises, didn't we learn that from 2016 if not from earlier elections and second, these polling instruments and we do polling here today with reuters, they are rough estimates, they can tell you directions but they are not precise. so i'm with the cautious people. i would -- if i were forced to bet i would bet on the democratic house but i can't tell you the number and i don't believe anybody else's number. paul: you mentioned earlier wild card and impact, that's the amount of money being spent in house races. you're talking about congressional races where literally probably $10 million or more are going to be spent in some of the races not by the candidates only but by the outside groups combined and your state of virginia barbara, tenth district, i don't know, dying out a month every month on how much is being spent on that race. [laughter] >> of course, it's illegal to

>> democrats are the party of crime. the democrat party has become an angry, ruthless, unhinged mob, determined to get power by any means necessary. >> it's all about donald. it's not about anything else. it's a conscious effort to divide the country. >> plus, new criticism in washington over what saudi arabia says happened to jamal khashoggi. >> they've lost all credibility as it relates to explaining what has happened. >> i don't find this saudi count credible at all. >> i think it's insulting to anyone who's analyzing this with any kind of intelligent background to think, oh, a fistfight led to a dismemberment. >>> and we begin with a live look at capitol hill. just 16 days to go now until voters hit the polls and a large spike that suggests americans appear more eager to cast their ballots on election day. a new nbc news "wall street journal" poll shows 72% of democrats say they have a high level of enthusiasm for november, whereas 68% of republicans are expressing that same energy. and a new report by the "las vegas

democrat versus a progressive democrat?st: this is something that defines our state today and the country when you look at the democratic ready. we mentioned our incumbent government -- governor who is running for his third term, andrew cuomo usually defined as a moderate democrat who faced the primary challenge from an aggressive cynthia nixon for this last primary. have seen this but not just that the gubernatorial level but all the democratic party in new york state and the country. we saw in 2016 between people like hillary clinton and bill -- bernie sanders, where there is this divide in the democratic party. the more left wing the base of the party. andparty is animated energized, which makes it more difficult for people like andrew cuomo who are more moderate. front and center in this election, we see it around the country. i think as you look in the urban settings you see the more progressive we saw in the 14th care with us. -- the three in the primary. as you move into more rural areas, you five more moderate democ

eight no party like a democratic party because the democratic party don't stop.

democrats. this is our cnn poll. 13-point lead among likely voters when voters are asked which party will you vote for? big lead for democrats here. new nbc/washington post data backs this up. the senate is more dicey. we'll get that in a minute. the president actually up from his poll numbers in recent months but still historically low when it comes to a president in his first midterm election. 43% in our poll, 41% in the new abc numbers. this driving democrats. we have democrats favored, look at the solid democrats, 182. 153 seats solid republican. advantage right now, democrats. unless there's a big change to take back the house. different story when you look at the senate. democrats at 45. democrats, if nothing else, chan changed on this map would have to run. republic republican, nevada. have to run the board here or somehow hold their seat in north dakota which we list as leaning republican. somehow take texas. a much more difficult climb here. still the opportunity within reach in the sen

for democrats that could be the picture. in terms of republicans that polarized election, what would that mean? it could mean gains in the senate. it could mean fewer gains for democrats and it means republicans trying to say messagize, the economy seems to be doing pretty well right now so give the president credit for that. almost two different elections playing out in some way. bring the panel back in with me. ashley parker, has the thinking inside the white house, just the conversations you've had there, have you noticed that charng in the last month or so as the senate certainly and maybe the house as the landscape has shifted a bit there in. >> yes. a number of people tell you they view this as two different elections. the house and the senate. what's interesting is are people in the president's orbit who are fairly concerned about their chances of holding the house but the key person, the president, as he sort of said sometimes publicly about that red wave, he's said privately that he doesn't believe the polls. there'

i think it makes the senator different cult grab for the democrats now. and i think as mark penn said on earlier show, could use more adults in the room. i think where we need to go is having some sense of healing across the country. so people can take the partisanship out and try to bring democracy back to the country because a lot of senses of people is that the government isn't working for them. the court isn't working for them and they filling their voices being heard and i think of the democrats can tap into that sense in the sense of being the adults in the room, then they could be successful in november. if we continue petty fights, i don't know how this will play out. >> shannon: people have a pretty bad taste in their mouth. i want to play some back-and-forth on the media. >> do you think the press is coming out of this looking weaker because many people feel that the press chose a side? >> yes. certainly that's the way it's going to look to trump supporters and the people who have been questioning the media's bias and their ability to report str

democrat joe manchin said yes. us about the final floor vote that's expected to come tomorrow? also the white house as it has a vote. let's bring in power panel. republican strategist and back from the center seat on "outnumbered" ," he has had a little protein so he can come back. former chief speechwriter for attorney general loretta lynch and former advisor to the hillary clinton presidential campaign. great to see you both. we haven't heard from you today so i want to start with you. historically when someone votes for cloture and debate ending, they typically vote in favor of whatever the matter of the person is. but we don't know that to be sure, the white house feels like judge kavanaugh has the vote. the configuration may include some democrats. >> it may come in we were talking about this before the show and it's not for sure that we can count on senator collins. she is in a very tight race. i feel like maybe this is a signal that she may be losing that seat and she is going go down with her party with a v

i think the democrats will win narrowly.d say that i don't see the blue wave materializing that the democrats hoped would show up but there are enough vacancies, open seats and frankly democratic -- >> sean: 45 retirements and the headwind of history. if they pick up seats in the senate, the split decision most people are calling tonight, one week out. the pundits are wrong. they were wrong in 2014, 2016, 2004. w just a few examples off the top of my head. >> they are wrong again. you know what? i can't disagree with you or doug right now because there are too many open seats. the election depends upon a turnout from the rest of the seats and on tuesday because the early voting states, the republicans are doing better than -- they are doing about what they didn't '16 and florida but not as well as they did in ' the democrats and the anti-trump vote are coming out a little bit better. we really have to watch that. plus, you can't let up on election day. remember, everybody was saying a year ago when you had virginia and alaba

independent women favor democrats by 33%. if those numbers hold going into early voting and election day then we have a shot in some of these redder states like missouri or indiana, but there's no question that it's a very difficult map. >> those close to chuck schumer would say majority leader is more likely in 2020. >>> how muddy to make the midterms and 2020. former attorney general and potential 2020 candidate eric holder came under fire from republicans this week after saying this while campaigning for democrats in georgia. >> when they go low, we go high. no. no. they go low, we kick 'em. when i say we kick them, i don't mean we do anything inappropriate or illegal. but we've got to be tough. >> of course, it was a comment that fed right into the republican narrative that democrats have been using overly aggressive rhetoric as the midterms approach. and it's true that many high-profile democrats have been, shall we say, talking tougher lately? >> when they go low, i say we hit harder. >> he seems to think that if he kee

how do democrats counter that? we do our best to pass good laws, and hope that we'll be in the majority to do so. the supreme court does have the last word, and many of these cases, and at this moment, if judge kavanaugh goes forward to be on the supreme court, he would make up the 5-4 difference, we think, in terms of conservative versus progressive. but, you know, tomorrow is another day. we don't know what the next vacancy will be. we don't know what the next opportunity will be. we're going to be prepared and take this next election very seriously. >> final question. i was able to speak to one of your colleagues on the judiciary committee this morning, senator kennedy. and he said something that strikes me as a bipartisan -- bipartisan agreement. and that is that the court politically is in trouble here. he used the words -- the process is a mess. he said that the court is viewed by a large percentage of american people as another extension of politics, and that this process added to that impression among the a

. -- for democrats. on the borderuch wall. mccarthy on the house side, gop side, his bill would fund the border wall in boost his speaker bid. will this come to fruition in the spending battle that will happen at the end of the year? guest: i am not sure. right now, the more realistic ideas $5 billion being for immigration. $5 billion is somewhat reasonable, i think, at this point, although senate democrats are not a big fan of that. it would get through the house, but probably not through the senate and a lame-duck. but the 23 billion dollars mccarthy has brought up, that has been a major issue for the president. but as far as helping with his speaker possibility, i am not sure about that yet. i talked to some conservatives, who said if he was serious about this, why not put this forward months ago, a year ago? why put it forward now? so that is the other thing. host: would he have a challenge for speaker, by the way? guest: the challenge would be himself. the 218 margin. steve scalise -- from what i un

can you see democrats getting behind the. >> i think democrats can get behind the idea that we have toway to citizenship for the 11 million undocumented that are here and we have to deal with those who have been part of our economy. whether we like it or not, they take care of our kids and clean our home, they work on construction sites mr largo, over and over again they want nothing but the american dream. with that being said we do have to find a way to make sure there is some level of security on the border. i'm not saying a wall is the answer but we saw president obama double the spending on the border and double the border patrol. >> just a quick question. , the point is, dealing with the individuals that are here, the point is we want to ensure that this problem doesn't get further exacerbat exasperated. this is something president trump brought forward for simply just wanting to have. [inaudible] >> i want to have a reasonable conversation, i'm so sorry were out of tow time but you will be back and we will talk about it then. we have to get some progress somehow. a special with

this is not advice and consent for democrats but it's a grudge match. >> if democrats retake the senate they confirm any presidential nominee for the supreme court or even appellate courts? >> absolutely not and everyone needs to understand that. lindsey graham was on television holding that list of judges that donald trump put together and he said, is there a single person that chuck schumer would ever agree to? and of course the answer is, no. they will make sure the president cannot do anymore in terms of a judicial remake. >> when we come back, amid accusations of political bias, brett kavanaugh gets set to take his seat on the supreme court this week. we will look at that term ahead and what kind of justice he lowill be. s aren't perfect. but then they make us kraft mac & cheese shapes and everything is good again. moderate-to-severe eczema, or atopic dermatitis, you never know how your skin will look. and it can feel like no matter what you do, you're itching all the time. but even though you see and feel your eczema on the surface of your skin, an overly sensitive immune system d

democrats are tiredth of losing. >> guest: if i were a democrat in north carolina i understand how she feels. with carolina, i'm being nonpartisan but let's just say republicans aggressive and effective in pursuing their agenda. now, it's not true, i live in maryland weather is a very strong democratic gerrymander. if a live-in illinois, very strong. these midterm elections are huge prick huge. in midterm elections, not presidentialge years, three quat is a follow governorships are up, four-fifths of all our state legislative seats are up. the last midterm before redistricting is particularly huge and important. when democrats got buried in 2010, the last midterm before the 2011 redistricting, it was catastrophic. when you lose badly the last midterm before a redistricting, that is the defeat that keeps on defeating for a decade. that's why republicans need to be really, really, really nervous is this you may be on the wrong foot. >> host: a good chance to talk about a guy whose twitter handle is redistricting. tragic i saw one of your preview guesses from university of virginia. david

but they're going to vote democrat. no matter what we do they're going to be voting democrat. they understand that. and that's why democrats support programs like catch and release. that's why democrats want to give illegal aliens free welfare, free health care and free education, give them a driver's license. give them a driver's license. next thing you know they'll want to buy them a car. then they'll say the car's not good enough. we want a rolls royce. made not in america so therefore i hope that's not what we do. that's why democrats want to give illegal immigrants the right to vote. how about in california, where illegal immigrants took over the town council and now the town council is run by illegal immigrants in a town? i mean, is this even believable? you tell this stuff? it is sick! that is why democrats want to abolish i.c.e., the most brave people. these people, i wouldn't want their job. nobody up here wants their job, i can tell by looking. they go into the toughest situations. we call them nests. nests are very bad people. they don't want to use guns, they would