mike santoli takes a look. >> reporter: investors are increasingly willing to pay up shr quality in a turbulent market. es of high quality companies began outperforming even before the bro market hit a rough patch starting in late september. quality in this case means companies have stable businesses not dependent on a strong economy, little debt and strong cash flowis reference can be seen in the likes of mcdonald's, walmart,di walt ey, starbucks and merck. health care is the top perfo performing. quality stos are not quite t same as value stocks. cheaper looking companies are s and tendgrowth ra to carry a good deal of debt. wall street isncreasingly preoccupied by how much it might trail off next year after a 30 brand18 which makes name stocks more appealing. and with the fed's mr. interest rate increase it's making debt more interested they want to bet on a strong balance sheet. while it's never clear or predicti, this kindf rotation towards quality is something that tends to occurla r in economic cycles as it turns towards a tougher, more val volatile past. perhaps an encouraging

jon, back to you >> thank you for more, gene munster, and mike santoli. welcome.ene, i'm not sure how much we should focus again on reports often based on rumor, especially since apple is no longer going to give us unit sales of iphone. the stock is not going to move on actual average selling prices, it will move on overall ref are -- revenue and strategic services >> what you're also seeing in the pull back is that there's a trust factor we have to have with apple with the new guidance methodology, not giving units out as you talk about. analysts in this case aren't going to be able to tune what we hear from supply chain directly to an iphone number. i think it is the right thing. i want to stress that. this is a great use case, what we see today about shifting methodology. if they deliver and 5% revenue growth they talked about, if they deliver that, that will be reassuring to investors not to worry about fire drills. i want to stress the fire drill theme. in josh's piece he talked about two other suppliers that account for about half the lasers used for augment

mike santoli takes a>> look. with a midterm elections past and the result largely as expected wall street has turned the focus to the chances for the stock market to continue the rebound from a nasty oxycodone with a year end rally. following the popular script as many stregists noted midterm election years have a tendency to finish strong. and the prevailing wmadom holds rkets do fine with d.c. gridlo and a power split between the two parties. it's important to note gnthat t major index rose more than 7 peppers from the october 29th low and investors have not been freed from the election by the ncerns weighing o the mechanic. trade frictions with china, qution base how aggressive the federal reserve will be in raising rates, and uncertainty he over how much growth in the economy and inon corrent profits might slow in 2019. the election had no direct bearing on the china tariff issue which has been an year hang on stocks. as for the fed, it meets and will issue a policy statement tomorrow. bu no move onates is ex

should investors expect this volatility to continue mike santoli has the answer for us at the telestratorbusy chart that comes from bank of america/mayoral lynch, the strategy team over there and compares the treasury yield curve, the flattening treasury yield curve and the volatility index for stocks this is the longer term. not the next couple of months. goings back to 1987 and projects into the future to 2021. the blur line is the treasury yield curve inverted so when the line is going up, the yield curve is getting narrower between two and ten-year maturities the orange line is the volatility index of today, so because the yield curve seems to lead the volatility index, the suggestion here, as you can see over time, the yield curve line has shifted forward, so what it would suggest is what we're in for is something like that when it comes to the vix over the next couple of years what it really tells us, guys, this is what happens towards the heart part of a cycle. >> right. >> yield curve narrows and the fed is raising rates these stock market volatility becomes more pronounced as we

along other as always with mike santoli, senior cnbc market commentator.w we finished up the day with a 2.5 point gain for the dow. that makes it the dow's and s&p's best day since back in march. s&p closing up 2.3%. check out the nasdaq soaring, almost 3%. best day for the nasdaq since the end of october the russell 2000 index of small caps also participating in this post-powell real, up 2.5%. the question is is it the right course of action for the economy? we'll have a debate between former top white house economic adviser jason furman and former fed governor fred mishkin. that's coming up should the fed pause its rate hikes or not that's the question. powell apparentlymore flexible in today's commentary. leading the charge what is boeing and salesforce was big on the s&p post earning and tiffany was the laggard. fueling the rally was fed chair powell's comments signalling that rate hikes play slow down sooner than expected here's what he said. >> interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the range of estimates of

mike santoli on why this appears to be an orderly sell-off. fueling fears of a slower economy that's keeping consumers on edge. >> 176 points, some of the main caught up in this selloff are leading this rebound facebook up 1%, amazon is also higher on a positive note from sntrust analysts, their team says the pullback makes its valuation more compelling and that stock is up more than 2%. it's worth noting, though, since the start of the earnings season in mid october, earnings estimates for the fourth quarter have come down 3%. analysts still expecting growth is just slowing profit growth for the upcoming quarters. still a number of worries, though tech slowdown, deceleration in growth, following that report. raw material costs rising, stronger dollar and higher rates, particularly as they relate to the housing market home builders are rallying today but uncertainty in the housing market has translated to this market ishares home construction down about 18% in the past six months and on the trade front, u.s. trade representative leitheizer acc

the market is overbought mike santoli has more. mike, who needs jeffrey gundlach you've been telling us every day. >> well, that is true. i have to agree with him though i'm not sure the market looks overbought i'm not sure what measures he's using there, but it is true. the market has been very systematically almost quietly pressured with the selloff i will say it's anxious. it's not so much the people that are calm and bullish, but there is some anxiety and you're seeing outflows for retail mutual funds for stocks and riskier bonds. you are seek that the market is down in 2016 gundlach is talking about it and in 2011 you had steeper declines and much heavier and consistent selling pressure and then maybe you got a fuller purge final point i would make on this i would not sure you would expect to see an all out fright at this point when the market is still down 10% it's flat for the year the economy seems okay something radically is changed i need to be afraid. if volume is higher, particularly i think yesterday you got close, and

i'm carl quintanilla with mike santoli and david faber.covered some of that s&p briefly went green before dipping briefly, shallow into the red. >> because of utx being down, 6% after that rally yesterday let's bring in art cashin. we were talking before this. it's an interesting week in the sense that we have news we know is coming toward the end of the week and/or the weekend. >> right. >> between xi and trump, china being a key concern and fed talk coming as well. >> absolutely. you get clarida this morning he had sounded somewhat dovish in his first presentation before that this morning, it was the two-handed economist on the one hand, this could happen on the other, that could happen. so they got nothing out of him the feeling had been if he was dovish again, that might compel powell tomorrow to either rein him back in or let him alone if he let him back in, that would have people looking. the general feeling here -- and i'm not just talking my attitude -- you guys know that i'm a bit of a bear on yields. they're locked into the decem

for nightly businesseport mike santoli. >> was the mood on the floor of the stock exchange just as stense as theling was? kenny is the director of the nyse floor division at o'neill securities joining from us the big board tonight. welcome back. >> nice to be here. >> i won't embarrass you i telling everybody how long the e been working on floor. suffice it to say you have seen your share of upmarkets a downmarkets. what's the mood and sentiment on the floor? is thi a short-term blip or the beginning of something -- beginning stages of a longer term downtrend. >> i think the mood has turned suddenly to a little bit of concern. but nobody is yet in that camp that it's going to turn into this pro tracted kind of downturn that you just referred to. i think whahas ening, you know, is that there is certainly shift, the change in psychology. with earnings season we got coined of weaker forwa guidance causing a little bit of concern. we saw the market break down in october when rates spiked to 3.. but the rates caused the initial downturn. they are down sfr 3.25 yet the market can't get out of i

mike santoli looks at whether there is enough fear in the market to help find a bottom. >> wall street's two-month slide has made investors a big anxious about the marketout are outlook. but there is not the intense panic or urgent slide from stocks that many like to see beforeetting tha a good bottom for the index has been reached. as the s&p hasallen 10% from a high the second time this year retail investors have pulled significant sums out of riskier mutual funds and thenvtors have buying more troegts and surveys and of professional avi indidual investors have shone a decne in bullish sentiment in recent weeks. but the responses have stopped short of true steams of fearful attitudes and behavior that is accompany a durable market low. the volatility index, a measure ofemand for downside option bets peaked in the high 20s in october. but in the past week has stayed closer to 20 even as the s&p approached octob lows. and wall street strategists on balance continue to prect some recovery in stocks by year end and further modest gains in 2019. it's important to note tt not all market rebo

mike santoli will join ups with his take on whether traditional media companies should gain backgroundmpanies. we'll be back in a couple of minutes. you're still here? we're voya! we stay with you to and through retirement. i get that voya is with me through retirement, i'm just surprised it means in my kitchen. so, that means no breakfast? voya. helping you to and through retirement. woman: life was tough in cuba in the '60s. my mom was fired from her job, so she started making cakes to support us. man: the first account that we opened was with bank of america. since then, we've grown exponentially. woman 2: to me, food is love, and i think food brings people together. woman: everything in life is about giving back. you're only as good as what you leave behind when you leave this world. ( ♪ ) but before you do that, you should meet our newest team member, tecky. i'm tecky. i can do it all. go ahead, ask it a question. tecky, can you offer low costs and award-winning wealth management with a satisfaction guarantee, like schwab? sorry. tecky can't do that. schwabbb! calling schwab. we d

i'm carl quintinilla with mike santoli and david faber.e midst of its longest losing streak ever mark zuckerberg reportedly adopting a more aggressive management style. >> nissan chairman carlos ghosn is on his way out after reports of financial misconduct. the nissan board expected to meet thursday for a final decision. >> plus a trade impasse. a confrontation between vice president mike pence and china's xi jinping at the apec summit. >>> markets moving lower, a holiday-shortened trading week the dow and s&p falling for the first time in three sessions nasdaq slips deeper into correction territory as goldman sachs forecasts gdp returning to 1.75% pace by the end of next year that i cite tighter financial conditions joining us, the portfolio manager and executive vice president at pimco kirk hartman is global chief investment officer at wells fargo asset management happy monday guys. goldman's point is trade is not pinching too hard but they are looking for five more hikes and they say this is a way to extend the life span of the recovery

critical issues, trade, the fed, the fact that, as we said, the s&p's largest sector, technology mike santoli from the new york stock exchange >> if technology, which is 20% of the s&p 500 is flat and doesn't participate, you probably have to get 9% out of the rest of the market which is not tech i don't think there's anything magic about getting back to a new high it's not a tragedy if we chop around here. i don't think we necessarily can declare tech isbroken and the market will have to do without those growth names the rotation i think we are seeing is into quality and more defensive business values. it's not necessarily the beat up, cheapest looking stuff, it's stuff not quite as cyclically geared i would throw out one more point. tech down more than 8% as it a capitulation near the end phase of a corrective several months when apple finally gives it up is it the beginning of the process? >> part of our point, too, to recognize one stock you get the headlines and the votes are counted, tomorrow we wake up and we're back to wondering what will happen with trade >> you will not get that >>

mike santoli joins us on set as we prepare for another week of trading as we do every week it seems likeast once a week we prepare for another week of trading every week, don't we >> we do >> yeah. only seven more this year. the time's coming short at this point. so what's interesting about the dan loeb stuff is i think that actually kind of fits with a bit of a consensus out there af piece today about the preference of the market right now for what you would call quality stocks in the market it's not the same as value it's strong balance sheets, lower debt, stable businesses, high profit margins. these type of good -- >> procter & gamble. >> there's etfs for everything including this quality style factor sphq is one of them. it started a few months ago. it hasn't been since the market pulled back. it's about a -- about a percent advantage over the last month or so what's interesting is the message here if there's a message so all the things loeb was talking about. financial tightening, rates going up, companies with a lot of debt, companies dependent on fast growth, cyclical companies n

also commentator mike santoli. >> mike santoli! >> yes >> good to see you, sir. >> mike santoli.ou hear that >> i hair ear it >> that's applause i called that up for you >> totally uncalled for. >> what do you mean? you're our big anchor between 3:00 and 5:00. >> yes big news i retained my role i've had for three years. >> making it official. >> i'll be available for 3:00 to 4:00 >> you didn't call home to your parents? >> no, i didn't. it was nothing >> making official what has been happening for a long time. >> why don't they just play that applause >> congratulations >> yeah. come on, man >> thanks. >> and by they we, barry, congratulations on the new firm. >> had you on with a couple of millennials. >> i know them well. >> okay, good. all right. >> let's talk about what's happening. the two big issues in the market this week we could see some solutions to both of them. potentially. we'll see what happens but already we've heard from fed chairman powell walking back his earlier comments from a couple months ago now we have the potential for sort of a framework between china an

i'll carl quintinilla with mike santoli and david faber of the pink that.sing after market last night courtesy of the likes of nvidia and in order strnords back almost four points. >>> stocks mixed over the fed, slowing growth and tech. after the scathing report in "new york times," facebook shares and mark zuckerberg attempt to explain. >> plus, sonos stock is spiking higher this morning. patrick sense is going to join us. >> a few big themes driving the market the fed's view on how quickly it can hike rates the corporate earnings picture, nvidia, nordstrom are down this morning and any movement on trade ahead of the g20, which is now within two weeks, of course federal reserve vice chair sat down with liesman for an exclusive and he joins with us more hey, steve. >> markets interpreting remarks of the new fed vice chairman richard clarida. his first interview since taking the job in september somewhat dovishly. the fed has more work to do but may not have far to go from here from the current funds rate of 2% to 2.5%. >> as of september, the long run neutr

. >> we have a lot to talk about with these markets mike santoli tweeted this out late yesterday, hee of trading. when we were up by 0.9% on the s&p. we have not seen three days where the s&p 500 had gained 1% in a long time in fact over the last ten years it only happened three times before yesterday those three times were all key inflection points for the markets, one time in 2011, twice in 2016, that marked trading lows he tweeted this out when we were up by 0.9% guess what by the end of the day we were up by more than 1%. that trifecta for the s&p, up 1% for three days running happened once again we'll see what happens this morning you're looking at the strong numbers on the markets. a lot of it because of what the president said in terms of trade with china the talks he had with president xi of china that he said went very well. very good conversation that's the lead in the "wall street journal." it's on the top of mind for investors today. we'll talk about that throughout the morning. kicking it off at the top of the hour with michelle girard about was she sees happening we hav

. >>> obviously the 2018 gains are gone how far are we in the downturn mike santoli has been tweetingbout that in the last few minutes and breaks it all down hey, mike. >> two months since the peak now the index retesting those lows from in october, down about 10%. the damage has been pretty comprehensive. the fact that we've broken those uptrends and now the indexes have stayed broken, i think it's relatively significant you're seeing failed rallies rallies we have had have stalled out exactly where you would expect them to it's kind of textbook, bear market characteristics in a lot of ways. you have about half of the s&p 500 down about 20% already, which does imply that's a process that's been happening for a while, a preference for quality and defensive stocks for months now, not just the past two months all of this suggests that the market, perhaps, is in a mode of treating that september 20th high as some significance. credit is now acting up. a lot of this stuff is flaring i think it's significant, though, that we have seen, as sara was mentioning, glamour stocks, favorite child

joining us on the phone, david rosenberg as well as our own mike santoli here at post 9. men, good morning to you mike, i'll start with you. how much, pardon the pun, stock should we put in this rally today? >> you know, the market is bouncing, i think, where it makes sense to bounce right here so you needed to see, i think, a little bit of an upside effort after we had just two days of pretty intense selling i mean i keep saying down 90 points on the s&p in two days, pretty close to the lows yesterday, so i do think it makes sense that you got on a short-term basis a little bit sold out some of the bellwethers are holding up okay. i'm watching apple, goldman sachs. also the equal-weighted s&p 500 is up more than 1% today that shows you the rank and file stocks are being picked up because they look overdone on a short-term basis >>> the dow is up 160, the s&p up 27. how are you thinking about the rebound we're seeing today >> just for some perspective, the worst days that the market ever had was in 2008 and before that was 2002. so you typically get the best days of the ma

mike santoli is back at post 9 how is the picture filling in for you?> seemed like there was itchiness to buy the opening down print, with some of the hardest-hit tech stocks. not the worst to see that. everyone gets caught up in what are proper tactics to see a low forming. but the market has been quiet in its oppressive selling it hasn't been this panicky flush. if we need something like that, it hasn't happened yet i don't know that you need it. it has been going on two months. you had a lot of untouchable stocks that have been humbled. i think this process is under way. whatever started two months ago is happening in terms of the correction process now it is taking on a flavor of on watch for significant slowdown in the economy as opposed to valuation stuff, oil crashing, trade frictions. >> when you say humbled, some software names, master card, microsoft haven't been dealt the hand that others -- >> that's true you have some that are preserving gains paypal was up 6% keep mentioning sales force, adobe. the reason is that they're fellow travelers w

i am carl quintanilla with morgan brennan, mike santoli at post 9 of the new york stock exchange jon is on assignment again this morning the president's comments to the journal on trade and potential new tariff on iphones dragging down apple stock >> reporter: the president was making two distinct threats in that interview with "the wall street journal." first, he said it is highly unlikely he would hold off raising tariffs on the $200 billion on chinese imports the tariffs are set to go from 10% through 25% on january 1st second, he said if he and president xi can't come to a deal during a dinner at the g 20, he is willing to push ahead with another tariff on products imported from china, and the rate would be between 10 and 25%. those remaining products do include the iphone as well as laptops, but it is important to read the full transcript with the president. it is actually "the wall street journal reporter that brings out the prospect of iphones being targeted, and president trump responds saying maybe they would be included, it depends on what the rate is. a 10% rate, people co

it is the subject of mike santoli's latest column, here at post 9 to talk about that. 2765 >> yeah, that's first technical test 200 day average. it is where the market fell off a cliff. it would be a logical place for the market to stall if we get up another percent, and turns out it was a bounce. i want to be clear, the bounce last week was strong you had three 1% up days in the s&p 500, that's rare, it tended to happen around a good trading low. doesn't mean it is up and away from here. the other i would say head wind is treasury yields if you look at these levels in the s&p 500 in january and again in the summer, the 10 year treasury was below 2.5, second time below 3, now 3.2ish or just below that doesn't mean the market can't make progress but we haven't made net progress. it shows resistance there because of valuation pressure from that. the seasonal story is a positive one. my only issue is everyone believes it is so hard everyone believes as soon as the election passes we get this automatic, it is a rock solid lock up side for two months. i don't know if that's not true, but i thin

. >>> right now on cnbc.com, mike santoli's piece on how investors are piling into quality stocks gets get the full list online now cnbc.com >>> we're back, yelp shares have plummeted nearly 25% just the last week, but options traders are betting on a big bounce. >> yeah! >> john, pete, and jim are at the telestrator with today's unusual activity john, you're up first. >> judge, this is already $1 off the bottom of the day, and it looks like they're betting on a lot more why do i say a lot more? they first came in buying december 40 calls. that was with this stock basically 31 and change. then they came in and bought the 35 calls so i think somebody's basically calling a bottom for yelp, at least for tradeable bottom, jim, so they came in, bought the fed 35 calls, those are the ones we have on the board right now, bought about 5,000 of them like that, and they also bought those dese 40 calls. because of that, significant upside i bought them. i'll probably be in the february calls at least a month jim? >> i think stoppleman really wore the hair suit he was so negative >> the hair suit

mike and i were talking last night. 5:20 when people write in that santoli and i work half days, it'sy're 12 hours. half of 24 right, my man? >> mike does that. >> we work half days 12 hours, sorkin that's what a half day is for me thanks, mike >> by the way, i did two hours extra yesterday too. >> you were down at like 2:00. >> 3:00. and i stayed at work the whole time i didn't go home >> i love that someone wrote in that. working a half day is 12 hours joining us is jim paulsen who worried so much that i'm sure it's even more than 12 hours he's chief investment strategist at leuthold group. kinnehan you here? >> i made it >> you break in? we didn't know if we had you or not. all right. paulsen, you just heard mike santoli and in your view, we got more to go you think this correction is halfway through? we got more work to do going down >> i do. i don't know if that's right or if it's hands now or several months out i'm thinking a few things. mostly we need slower growth i just don't think we can sustain a rise in the stock market with as strong of growth we have as 3.7% unemployment

florida in that regard >> high-profile dynamics >> as we're talking dow session highs are up 313 mike santolins us back at post 9 as the vix threatens to fall below 17 again. >> i think the market is playing as if it's free of worrying about the political and policy stuff. i think the one swing in that perception would be if there's any hint of aggressiveness to china post election. goldman sachs saying the president is likely to put new tariffs on china in 2019 doesn't change it here >>> there is the president's press conference live to the white house. >>> it was a big day yesterday, an incredible day. and last night the republican party defied history to expand our senate majority while significantly beating expectations in the house for the midterm year we did this in spite of a very dramatic fund-raising disadvantage driven by democrats, wealthy donors and special interests and a very hostile media coverage, to put it mildly. the media coverage set a new record and a new standard. house retirements are tough. these are the seats that could have been held easily and we had newcomers going

>> mike santoli just talked about apple being a big one. and goldman.ing, it's indicated higher home depot and you can probably stretch all three of those stocks to having some impact on -- or the trade talks have been a direct impact on those. boeing's been the one coming around the most. >> people have talked about navarro being put away in the closet >> happened before, you know >> it's happened before. do you think he's moving to a position where he will be banished, if you will? the president has talked a lot about sort of remaking his cabinet, remaking the advisers that are around the hoop >> did you hear the president yesterday when he talked about trade? he said, we're going to have dinner with china. they want to make a deal even if that's not what they're saying and in the next breath he said i could place these tariffs on, these 25% tariffs. i will tell you a lot of analysts are very scared of this next round of tariffs. they think it's the one that will bite. they think we've been able to kind couof avoid this. i think the president has gone

. ♪ >>> welcome back to the closing bell mike santoli has a chart >> i do have another chart i guessat investors have become more positive this chart plots data within the consumer they also ask do you think stock prices will be higher or lower until next 12 months this is put together by the folks and the red chart here is folks that think it will be lower in a year. the blue is those that say it will be higher in a year the stock market got caught in half this is 2011 you can see the spikes are pretty dramatic places where you want to be in january the market raised to a new high people were overexcited. this is the second correction. this is the latest >> sheer what disappoints me tell me if i'm reading this wrong. things take a turn based on this turn it doesn't really mean people have acted on it before or after unfortunately it is true people get too certain and it doesn't necessarily mean it's a turning point at all >> right >> but january was quite a big sales signal >> it is cautious. it is not outright skeptical or pessimistic. >> let's take a look at how we finish the day

. >>> up next, mike santoli will make his way back. it is the highlight of the hour.t morning signals for the market >>> a slight up tick aits s i what could be the future of airport check in the details ahead. if you're on medicare, remember the annual enrollment period is here. the time to choose your medicare coverage... begins october 15th and ends december 7th. so call unitedhealthcare to learn about... a plan that could give you the benefits you're looking for. it's the aarp medicarecomplete plan insured through unitedhealthcare. what makes it complete? it can combine medicare parts a and b, which is your hospital and doctor coverage... with part d prescription drug coverage, and more, all in one simple plan... for a low monthly premium or in some areas, no plan premium at all. an aarp medicarecomplete plan offers you benefits like an annual physical, preventive screenings and most immunizations... all for a $0 copay. you'll also have access to a local network of doctors and much more. you can get routine vision, hearing and dental coverage, and worldwide emerge

course, after what has been a very sharp selloff since the company reported earning last week mike santolias reflected in place, hardware is the particular a lot of bellwether software and high ground hasn't been taken out. look at the standard, etf that has apple with about 20% waiting in it. it's up. doing fine but that north american software etf, oracle, microsoft, adobe, sales up a lot more 18% this year. does not have apple, does not have semiconductors. those things are crucial these are the main s&p tech sector, those are the familiar names. of course, visa has been another great performer. hardware like apple and semis have hurt it here you have the software etf and also the gaming exposure as well the question now, is this just a trend that's going to persist? and is this why apple wants to be viewed as a software company because of its superior business are we in for some kind of a mean reversion here? apple hasn't been broken it's not even a hardware company. semis also have gotten relief. that's the relationship i think you'd watch in terms of divergences. >> would you argue t

market strategist at jeffrey, terry hanes, at post 9 morris mark, ceo of mark asset management and mike santoliryone set us up with an umbrella of how investors should be thinking about these results. >> first of all, remind people it went as expected and the reason we're getting a pop is there was that reserve of uncertainty because polls hadn't been great the vix was almost 20, the volatility index, which shows there was a hedge against an outlier scenario we didn't get that so i think it's the market's bounce and recovery process that started a week ago monday is now resumed. so you're up 6.8% from the intraday low of the s&p 500. it shows you the market was overstretched and they're taking this as, okay, fine, the election is out of the way so we can now unfurl the script for the fourth quarter which i think the consensus as is we rally after midterms, maybe we can get back to those september highs and figure out what 2019 means for the fed and the economy. >> morris, so you see any wrinkles that. >> i think that makes sense, i was struck by the health care thing because health care is 8.5%

mike santoli >>> we'll continue this conversation with jeff currie a few moments from now. >>> time now update sue herera has this for us >>> in a tweet, president trump threatening to close the u.s. border with mexico if mexico does not act to stop the migrant caravan. this comes after a peaceful march turned chaos when u.s. agents fired tear gas at migrants who tried to breech th border two russian ships were spotted moored at a harbor in crimea ukraine's navy says six of its seamen were injured when the russia opened fire the ukrainian particle system set to consider martial law in that country. >>> theresa may gathering her cat in the as he tries to convince the british public to back the brexit deal she struck with the european union. she plans to address the house of commons later today. >>> and bernardo bert lucci has died he won oscars with "the last emperor" and "last tango in paris. he died surrounded by his family he was 77 years old. you are up to date that's the news update carl, back to you. >> let's get to that news on gm. >>> general motors is going to be cutting product

mike santoli at the tell administrator taking a look at junk bond etfs >> specifically the hyg etf.t treasury yields going higher. so that means treasury prices go down all corporate debt is priced off of government debt so that's why the price is down 3.5% year to date. the total return is positive at the beginning of the year an index of high yield bonds was 5.8% yield so it's become more expensive but the credit markets in general have been firm. the best way to gauge of t strength of the market is relative so this is a ratio of the hyg etf and the iei. so when this charles is going up it means risk appetites are going up so here was the high in january, that was ugly. here's the high in january and here's the high right there. october 1. so you saw that credit softened up in the lows in october. we rebounded along with last week's bounce. high yield does move stock prices but you see all this land in here where we haven't recovered so credit markets are softened up a little bit relative to treasuries as gauged by the hyg it's something to watch. not so much an emergency levels b

welcome back to "squawk on the street," i'm david faber along with mike santoli and david faber.at post 9 from the new york stock exchange. carl and sara have the day off the dow is down but broader averages are both up as we get ready for the g20 summit to get under way. this morning president trump, along with the president of mexico and prime minister of canada signed a new trade agreement, the u.s./mexico/canada agreement, otherwise known as the usmca trump tweeting about it moments ago. quote, just signed one of the most important and largest u.s. trade deals in history the united states, mexico, canada worked so well in crafting this great document the terrible nafta will soon be gone the usmca will be fantastic for all. and there's one of his trademark exclamation points the president also preparing for a key meeting with china's president xi jinping earlier u.s. trade represent robert lighthizer said he would be surprised if the dinner between the two leaders was not, quote, a success we have full team coverage and analysis eamon javers is live at buenos aires and on set

i'm david faber along with morgan brennan and mike santoli.quickly to an assignment this morning. let's bring you up-to-date at the nyc, somewhat of a bit of a mixed picture. since i tend to ignore the dow, the market is higher with the nasdaq and s&p both in positive territory. >>> we got a big announcement from amazon a few moments ago on where it's going to be putting its hq2s not just two we've got a lot of good guests coming up as well this morning also let's get to our road map. a lineup of great guests, u.s. attorney makan delrahim will join us exclusively in a few minutes, big implications for corporate america and mma from the decisions from his justice department. >> and with the dow dropping more than 600 points, national economic director larry kudlow is on with us as well to talk about that sell-off. >> banks crushed yesterday, trying to bounce today with goldman sachs alone on monday. kbw ceo tom michaud is here to tell us what's up next with financials. >> that news from amazon, making it official, announcing where its hq2 or hq

i'm mike santoly and this is trading nation general electric shares plunging at j.p.its pricing target from $10 to $6 a share. ge down 86% since 2000 and most of it is this year, down 50% in 2018 alone is this stock officially a no touch proposition here erin gibbs and matt taylor to weigh in on that matt, going to you to decide when bad is so bad it might be good is g.e. there yet? >> i don't think so. j.p. morgan has a $6 target on it i'm going to put a $6.60 target on it we remember when the s&p 500 was $6.66. the closing low in g.e. back then was also $6.66. that's kind of a weird coincidence and stuff but the reason i'm worried about it -- we get a stock like this, it's not a situation where the baby is thrown out with the bath water, it's down 75% from its highest two years ago compared to a 15% rally in the s&p. you're not getting paid to wait, it only pays a penny dividend, so you're not getting paid anything even though the stock is oversold on a near term basis, if you look at the weekly charlottesvilchart, it's not as oversold as it was on two other occasio

i'm mike santoli, and this is "trading nation. a roll the past couple of weeks the xrt retail etf up 7% since hitting a five-month low in october with a number of names like macy's and tiffany all getting a boost. and this comes, of course, as retail earnings are about to get into full swing. so, what, if anything, would you buy in this space? craig johnson's with piper jaffray, mike binger is with grady investments. so, mike, strong consumer heading into the holiday season. the stocks have run a little bit, but also, you know, not at their multiyear high so, how much are you playing >> yeah, you know, and the run makes sense. i mean, you think about what's caused this recent sell-off, right? it's been high valuation stocks have sold off. rell, retailers are very reasonably prices. retailers, they don't get caught up in the risk-off, you know, the trade tariff trade at all. they're u.s.-based, so the strong dollar doesn't affect them so, overall, it's a pretty safe defensive sector, i think, where you know -- and consumer data's h

i'm mike santoli and this is trading nation. home depot and lowe's both taking a hit today.n grades home depot sending peak earnings growth in the name both big boxed names having their worst quarter in more than a decade. how should investors trade these beaten down stocks mark temper is with strategic, craig johnson with piper jafery. a lot of housing related stocks have gotten hit, the home builders most pronounced, but this is now hitting some of the high quality retailers in this area, what do you think? >> yeah, so the knock on them is home depot is experienced peak earnings growth but my question is where haven't we seen peak earnings growth. we've seen 25% year over year growth across the s&p and we're only expecting high single digit growth next year so that sounds like a peak across the board to me. the macro environment looks really good for these home improvement stores. the consumer's still strong, not a lot of inventory as far as existing homes go, mortgage rates are going up and the market is on focusing new home purchases and construction, but what's really l

mike santoli talked about quality issues what are you doing >> i would describe our positioning and view on markets as constructive. i think it's best -- the best of the returns are behind us over the last seven or eight years, but i do expect a constructive view around the corporate and economic fundamentals over the next year or two it's very long and elongated economic cycle and i think a return profile going forward is moderate i'll describe that as mid single digits but i think it's too early to be overly defensive here i think the markets have moved from peak conditions, meaning peak growth, potentially peak earnings, probably peak profit margin, but moving from peak to late cycle to end of cycle to over is a little bit too prema tore for ture for us. >> the extreme of being defensive is cash. there's a huge spectrum in between. so if you're constructive but it's not optimal conditions, it's no longer goldilocks for equities. >> that's right. >> what does that allocation look like? >> it's still modestly underweight fixed. we're in an environment where they will moderate or normali

scientific approach to depression, which people say is desperately needed >> thank you let's go to mike santolior "trading nation. >> contessa, thank you very much today on "trading nation," we're looking at terror stocks, micron, invidia, all up huge recently the smh etf trades the best in weeks. some of the hardest hit amid the recent tech sell-off do you sell here is this a buying opportunity stacy, how would youview this? either as a sector of based trade or perhaps looking within some of the beaten up components of it? >> yeah, mike. i think you hit the nail on the head there this is certainly not a sector-based trade our analysts are still certainly cautious on this sector and we certainly wouldn't be looking to buy the basket here if you will. it's actually consistent with what we're seeing in terms of marketing positioning. if you look at the semi conducter, smh, it has a more cautious tone. >> that being said, there are names where we think you can dip your toe in. we think they can be attractive. many here likes the longer-term story and chris rolt listen likes marvel, in how much it'

. >>> welcome back to "power lunch," i'm mike santoli and this is trading nation a new face in the driver'sstock a pop. the appointment of robyn denholm as chair taking, before elon musk tweeted funding secured it put the stock back in overdrive. todd gordon with trading analys analysis.com to discuss that this stock has been on another one of its roles it's kind of got up into the higher end of its range. where do you see it heading from here >> it's actually been rather rhythmical you're going to see three main setbacks there's actually a lot of rhyme and rhythm and repetition in this chart if you take a percent drop of the initial decline back here in 2016, 34%. we'll have another serious setback right here this one, 37%. and then this big one that we've seen when elon musk was taken to task seemed like it was a big vicious selloff, guess what the present was, 36% we're seeing a very clean setback kind of corrective within the trend i think if we hold the bid and i think we will, the 389 high is in jeopardy and we should be able to get up to elon's 420 on the breakout i'm going to play t

i'm mike santoli time for trading nation under armer is bulging up.re player rallying after the a rating from wells fargo. the best win streak since 2014 piperafterry and boris is here craig over the longer term this stock has been all over the map. half the current price a year ago but twice the price three years ago. how does the setup look to you now. >> mike the setup on under armour looks great on the charts a longer term bottoming formation setting up technicians call it inverted head and shoulders bottom. when you measure from the head to neckline suggests a measured price objective up in high 30s we'd be a buyer here when you look at the bottom part of the chart i put out i put a short interest ratio it's declining since march so it's not only the short covering here but there is some meaningful buying coming into in this you hear upgrades from the fundamental analysts >> boris, that high short interest in the stock of a few months age ago and a couple years ago really seemed to represent the fact that it's never been an inexpensive stock. it'

. >>> welcome back to "power lunch," i'm mike santoli it's time for trading nation the bears have comeor apple. the tech giant under pressure again today now down 20% from its record high set in early october. it has now shed $213 billion in market caps since that point joining us to talk about it is bill baruch with blue line futures, and rockefeller capital management, bill, what's the setup here in terms of how this chart looks? you've broken through the 200 average, obviously well below the $200 mark on apple shares. is it any kind of a bottoming process here, or is it kind of a freefall still >> i'm actually not too concerned it's below the 200 day moving average look at february, look at april, it was below for six and seven sessio sessions i'm also not even too concerned that we're below 187 which is a trend line from those areas. i do see a tremendous amount of support down in 182. i want to see that be constructive i would love to see it close back above 187 on the week, and if we can get above that 200 day moving average, 204, 207 could be in the cards the next months. i like

i'm sara eisen with david faber and mike santoli live from post 9 at the new york stock exchange carling off. >>> let's look at the markets. half hour into the trading session, things are lower, putting an end or pause to the three-day rally we saw that was supercharge wd by fed chairman powell yesterday minor selloff for stocks >>> our road map for the hour will start with the markets. the dough aw and s&p coming offr best day in eight months >> but stocks are edging lower a geopolitical event in focus could be a game changer for trade and possibly energy as well we'll take you live to the g20 summit in buenos aires. >>> and a bombshell exposÉ alleging former cbs chief les moonves tried to silence one of his accusers jim stewart is with us this hour. >>> stocks are edging lower after the dow and s&p 500 jumped more than 2% yesterday afternoon. this, of course, on the heels of those comments from fed chair jerome powell. he signalled to investors interest rates are close to neutral. fomc minutes also out today. steve liesman joins us now he has this whole thing wrapped up steve? >> i'

i'm mike santoli, it is time for "trading nation.tter falling to its lowest point in nearly two months, the latest drop in an extended selloff, the stock down 35% since its june highs where is the bottom for twitter? let's bring in mark newton and erin gibbs to talk about that. mark, this stock swings around quite a bit, it's been jumpy in the last year or so. how do you think it's set up at the moment >> mike, i actually am pretty constructive on twitter at current levels the stock is town about 35% since union, however, this followed a time when the stock almost tripled in price last year, so it's actually been consolidating a bit and if you look at daily charts of the stock, it's actually been forming a pretty decent basing pattern that some might say is a potential beginning of a reverse head and shoulders pattern it requires a move up above 3560 for that to materialize but my thinking is momentum has been improving in the stock since october, i'm a buyer of the stock on pull backs. ideally right down near 28 to 28.5 for me is a

as investors weigh the odds of a traditional year-end rally mike santoli joins us now with more whatportant is what the consensus is thinking it seems as if it's really become a solid majority view that all these seasonal -- magical seasonal factors we know about midterm elections are about to be freed up here. the s&p 500 is up about 5% from last monday's low. in a week you're up 5% from the low but you're in this zone where people aren't clear if last week was a bounce or something better i don't argue with any of the seasonal factors saying after every one of the midterm election years we've had the s&p up in the subsequent year. >> you're talking the first -- the next month and a half. >> well, the next month and a half to me is a little more clear than not but if you look back to the last two midterm election years, okay in 2014 you went up 5.6% in the top. it isn't as if it unleashes a great renaissance for the market >> though i read in the averages -- and this goes back to world war ii. but i read on average the market is up 17% in the next 12 months. and if you just look fro

cramer has a few followers or something, then my twitter feed exploded let's get to mike santoli fore on the rally. we have katie stockton coming on i don't know why we need her after i saw you yesterday on "closing bell. you were amazing >> you didn't listen to the disclaimers. >> you know nothing. we have a lot of people around here that know nothing and are never in doubt >> just trying to dial out the lens and look at the context of this move. >> 2,800, you had me worried about 2,800. >> it's not worry, it's a challenge. we have the chart. >> if you look at 2,800, you drew a line across on "closing bell" -- >> if you look at 2,750 and 2,800, that stopped the market five or so times >> it didn't stop it in january or september it has gotten through. >> it's an area of friction you have to get through. the bigger point yesterday, with an intentional softening of language by powell, no doubt about it, but still within the exact range of the fed's 2019 forecast that they were two months ago i do think there was an intent to say look, why are you getting carried away here? the equity

and our own mike santoli is here as well.0 where this gets rolled you have may have second thoughts about this this morning. what do you think after hearing what eamon said? >> mostly negotiation. if there's going to be a deal, it'll come at g20. not at this event where the president wasn't there >> this sounded like a doubling down we've heard some softer language that's been used by administration officials recently including larry kudlow. what does this tell you? >> this is what the president always does. this isn't a criticism this is his negotiationing tile of doubling down and being tough. staking a hard position and moving more to the center. to me, it's way too early to say whether this isn't going to work i'm hopefully at some point there will be a deal in large part because it's more in china's interest given how weak their economy is and stock markets are. to me the u.s. is in a much better negotiating position. and the policies in my mind reflect that. >> what do you see playing out in the markets >> it's been not

anyway, mike santoli, thank you.>> thank you >>> facebook are under fire again. mark zuckerberg and sheryl sandberg trying to fight back this morning denying reports how they handled some of these russia issues in terms of how their social network was used. and we're going to talk in a minute after this break to jeff sonnenfeld, our management guru. next he's got some provocative thoughts about those at the top of facebook. back in a moment sfx: [phone ringing] you still have service? call the insurance company it's them, calling us. it's going to be a week before they can get through on these roads shhh, sorry, i didn't catch that. i said ask how soon they can be here right now? what's now? he says they're surveying our property now they're probably at the wrong house i don't see any hovering his name is hovering? look up? by automating claims with machine learning and analytics, cognizant is helping insurance companies advance how they serve even hard to reach customers. cool ♪ >>> welcome back to "squawk box. let'

it would roughly double google's current staffing >> now, to the markets mike santoli joins us. sell off, they rally. these things happen -- >> back 500 points. >> yeah. it's going somewhat textbook but in an accelerated way. >> right >> i mean it seems like this market tends to just sort of rush to that next decision point. and reprises quick what it does tell you, obviously in october, you add that aexacerbaaska exacerbated moving down. take a look at the chart of the s&p 500. we've gotten back about 60% of the loss from september high to october lows and that line is around the 2800 level. the s&p, we got slightly above it yesterday look at the significance of that this is where the rally fell in early october, also the earlier part of the year all of a sudden, we're at this point where people are saying it's just a mechanical bounce or something more so, there was a technical rescue operation here the 2 1/2-year uptrend was in jeopardy and kind of got saved with the last move i do believe we're up 7% in the last trading days. the rate has been as high as it's been since octo

cnbc's senior market commentator mike santoli is here are we getting close to a resolution or consolidationto go >> well, you know, you can think about levels but i think more of it is just the -- i'd like to see a behavioral, you know, end to this panic, full panic, full acceptance that the bull's over and recession is coming. i think that reflects one of the things we've got going on. i think that is recession fears are escalating here. and perhaps for good reason, the market message coming from stocks, cyclical stocks across the board. everything from materials and industrials to financials to tech getti inting pounded then if you go to the commodity market, industrial commodity prices are off 10% to 15%. you go to the bond market and both are blowing out you're seeing increasing concern in the market about recession. i think that's feeding through into fed probabilities and i think that's one of the things driving this market down. the problem we have now is it's very susceptible you think about the fed could stop, but what if we get a hot wage number again in a couple weeks on top of p