rick rieder is from blackrock. he's joining us for the rest of the show how's your memory?'s your last appearance >> my god. >> about a month ago. >> yeah. >> we have seen some recent conjecture about where the fed is and whether they've recalibrated or rethought things do you think there's been a change in the last month in their thinking about the progression in interest rate hikes? >> i do. we talked about it actually last summer on the show about, listen inflation is not accelerating of any significant magnitude. the fed's favorite metric tomorrow we think it's going to drop to 183. you're still not at the target the same rating. the data, the intrasensitive parts of the economy report on housing. the housing day is a is soft some of small business is soft so i think the fed is starting very slowly. and i think they'll lay it out it'll be interesting to see what chair powell says today. but i think of the december meeting, they're going to talk about what's happening to residential. they'll start talking about, gosh, you know, we've moved in december it'll be ten times.

fundamentals that's underappreciated and this speaks to the discussion you had with john taylor and rick rieder. the mix of growth matters a lot. right? so housing has slowed. capital investment is still booming. i know andrew likes to take the government at their word but i was in last time and said, no, it didn't slow much in the third quarter. it was revised up in the gdp but the bottoms up capital investment numbers, s&p 500 were up 16% in the third quarter. they're going to -- government's going to revise up their numbers further. capital investment is booming. that makes productivity go higher clarida talked about that this week that is a much better mix of growth than just driving up growth through residential investment or consumption. >> john taylor was on the other day? >> yeah, it was wednesday. >> wednesday >> remember, you were debating. >> no, no, i'm kidding things do run together and you messaged me that day i actually told our friend andrew what you told me to tell him which was before 1913 tariffs were one of the main sources of income for the u.s. government at that point it