paul tudor jones when we return. >>> welcome back to "squawk box. nies doing just things. >> i also want to talk to you about what i think is a relatively bold call about what the fed may or may not do when it comes to hikes. what do you think is going to happen >> well, central banks always generally speaking manage by looking in the rearview mirror so they're always looking at data that's old. the whole fore guidance thing locks them into these intractable paths that's difficult for them to deviate from and that's probably not the best way to manage an economy but it's -- when you're driving that many different stake holders and you have so much momentum, it's hard for them to change what's different this time is that i started out as a cotton trader so commodities, i was trading. that was the first thing there were no financial futures or certainly no stock index futures. when i first started all the financial futures had just begun my point being, i always look at commodities because they're a great leading indicator for the economy. right now we

. >> that's called aging gracefully >> scott, i'd say when you're looking at volatility, paul tudor jones or liz ann saunders yesterday, marc today, when we're talking about ten up or ten down, that's what paul tudor jones said as far as the market and dealing with volatility, i agree. that doesn't mean we go down it means we see exactly what we saw yesterday, a big down and then up. exactly what we're seeing today which means a big up and then down and maybe, we don't know if it vs back by the end of the day or not, that is what we expect it doesn't mean the market can't be up to both tudor jones point and all the rest >> the danger, is it not from both of you, is trying to make a market call and trying to make a stock buy or sell call is muddied by everything going on, trade fed. >> all these different elements go into it the positive is this and this is what jana brought up when we get the sharp moves to the down side, those are going to be mostly temporary for the most part, and the reason i say that we talk about the down tick rule and algos, those are temporary events that sometimes

peopleo revisit their allocation and find aevel that is comfortable for them because i agree with paul tudor jones. i do not think that we are out of the woods with volatility. think that will continue. >> i'm going to run out of time here, but this is important. where do you go then to try and smooth things out or at least find some security? like gold for exampl what about bonds? >> i do like bonds if you can t buy individual paper. bond funds are going to be difficult because they're going erode as interest rates go up. one, two, three-year treasury nd if you can buy them outright are, in my opinion, offering good yield and a good place. utilities and staples are another area that we like here. >> all hang on. buckle up. do whatever you have to do. quint ftatrom joule financial. thank you for joining us tonight. >> thank you, bill. >>> time to take a look at somea of s upgrades and downgrades. fedex was dograded to neutral and they cited the management shakeup at theni express in the middle of the busiest season. price target $220 and the shares fell 4% to $192.93. visteon was downgraded from n

we originally had the percentages for two on there >> what did you think of the paul tudor jones commentd done he says there's a good chance something like that happens. >> if you don't mind, i want to try out my new thought this morning on you guys live on television here. i think the fed is puzzling between two historical analogies here the first one is 2008 and the second one is the taper tantrums the distinction between those two. 2008 was the wrong policy at the wrong time where it kept rates up and it should have been cutting 2013 was the right policy at the wrong time okay so what they did is the market had a big flare up you remember this, right and then they came back to that policy later i think what the fed is seeing is seeing this as a taper tantrum right now. they're going to let the market settle down, let the market get caught up to where it is on the forecast which is that it's a slowdown but not a catastrophic slowdown and there will be, you know, 2% inflation. a still declining unemployment rate and when they move, it'll be clear to the market it's time to move they mig

paul tudor jones says we'll see a lot of volatility and market cost move up 15%, or down.ke a stand. jeff sica, what do you think, we're well off the highs of the session? >> my opinion from the beginning is that technology was drastically overpriced from 20 to 30%. i anticipate we're going to see a lot of declines in technology but i think there is a lot of this back and forth because there is a lot of money coming in through share buybacks. there is a lot of headline-driven appreciation in the market, so get ready for volatility, get ready for big declines, followed by big surges. know that overall, i think the market, if the market doesn't hold up, i think we have another bottom. >> dow up 168. we had been up 458. >> right. liz: this announcement coming in the three minutes, uk. what do you think a trader or investor do if the market opens down on it or up? do you just sit tight? >> liz i think investors should do, first look at allocations. they're so heavily allocated in stocks, most investors. should be willing to pare back on some stock exposure especially to the fi

. >>> that was legendary investor paul tudor jones >> looking for it. for the retirement our next guest says more than a quarter of savers are making one crucial mistake. let's bring in jeanne. she's senior vice president. joins us now from boston welcome back i know what the one mistake is but we've been talking about so much nobody does know so you need to tell us now. >> sure. happy to, joe. thank you. so the biggest mistake that people are making is that many are over weight in equities. as you said, 25% are holding more equities. some are even holding 100% and in a market like this, you want to make sure that you're well diversified. >> the -- normally i'd say that you don't know how weighted you should be in equities unless you know the person's age. >> that's right. >> if you're in your 20s or 30s, i don't know whether that's true that you can be over exposed, can you? over time equities are the place to be, right >> they are, and you really need equity for that long-term growth in the market. for someone who's aged 25 or just starting out in the

. >> so then you believe or agree with what janet yellen said about corporate credit, what paul tudor jones and others have been warning about and you yourself have warned about >> i've warned about corporate credit for a long time i said in 2017, september, that when rates go up, the worst performing will be corporate bonds and, boy, was i right. i mean, corporate bonds have been bad this year in fact, i did a webcast last tuesday, i haven't looked at the numbers since then but emerging market dollar denominated debt has stronger -- had stronger year-to-date returns than investment grade corporate bonds. and that's amazing when you think about how emerging markets broadly have suffered with the stronger dollar and the tariff talks. investment grade corporate bonds have been bad and at this juncture there's some chance of them recovering a little bit if rates rise because the spreads are wider anyway, but if rates rise significantly, the duration, the interest rate risk of that sector, is very, very high and if interest rates have the impetus to fall, which it doesn't seem like they do beca

being criticized for their slow response to the emergency in the northeastern state of meghalaya paul tudor jones has more. these rescue workers know the chance of finding the trapped miners alive is slim but they continue their search the teenage miners went into the illegal coal mine in the north east indian state of magali on december thirteenth but got trapped soon after when the mines tunnel was flooded by a nearby river they've been without food or drinking water ever since the war that it is not going. to be to put a lid on it inefficient to playing football but not fast enough prime minister narendra modi's government is being criticized for not sending in the right equipment on time he was at a nearby state on christmas day and didn't mention the incident or the trapped miners divers at the scene say they aren't equipped to go down more than thirty meters and the miners are some ninety meters underground the best of what the living there will be even if you start a little bit to still be there doing all that and you have wind down the feet and visit the water level but that is going down

we have heard from investors like jeff good lie, paul tudor jones, kevin, that they should not move rate at all in 2019. what do you think they are going to do? is the rownk that question. what they should do, i would not presume to tell them. i am a central banker. i think there is a big consensus around it. tightening has been done. as it moves into next year, it is more marginally impacted. the most important thing is what will be the impact of what they have already done as far as both tightening, raising interest rates, and shifting from qe. anna: your focuses on the longer term, but what we do over the short term would be an interesting situation to break out for the holidays. a fed rate hike in the possibility of a government shutdown hanging over markets. that is going to leave people feeling a little unsteady over a prolonged holiday period. on interest rates are is a certain amount of consensus around that. there have been a lot of thoughts about that issue. i think there has not been much focus on the budget. he think that is a source of new concern. normally we get to the wir

paul tudor jones says the drama of a decade ago could happen again. >> there will be some point in 2019et is up on the year and there will be a beta squeeze and all the deleveraging we see will go back in the market. 2007 is a great example. the last hike was in 2006. was fallingeconomy apart, but the stock market did great all the way until october. can we have a scenario like that again? i think it is possible. >> global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am paul allen. \ this is bloomberg. >> just to pick up on that comment, our earlier guest said when you look at how equity markets are pricing and the multiples we are seeing, it is almost like a price for disaster, which means there is potential for up site come about because we are late cycle that upside might be squeezed a little. pacific -- of msci two day chart of msci pacific. it got back up. gave all of that away. we are at the midpoint. we did get the tokyo reopen. it is going to be about india the next few minutes. let's have

the chinese put a purchase on paper then what >> then you have like the binary notion of what paul tudor jonesere is a huge con ssensus tha we can have a recession. i am thinking that the stocks are wrong but everybody who has thought that have been denying it there is so many companies yield 4% accidental high yield as i call them those are bought a lot of retailers >> do you know there is only two injunctions in china ever and last one was five years ago and also in that province. i know it is not fake news it is diplomatic >> trump would be tweeting about that skrjudge. get rid of that. >> tariff man. about 2% >> did you painted on tariff man. >> how about larry kudlow saying it is a soft deadline. >> and people want to know why the market is crummy >> how can anyone trust the m k market when the chief economic adviser saying it is hard. >> you got to figure out who you want to fall to when it comes to communicating we are getting out of the administration. i am sure you would want to fault to lighthizer. >> he's leaving. it is ridiculous that we are discussing this? >> unless he takes chie

. >> we talked to paul tudor jones earlier this week.pside when you talk about a 20% drop, does it look like a quick hockey stick. it drops and pops again? or is that something where you think you drop 20% and you hang out there for awhile >> we'll have to see what the sentiment numbers, what the price action, valuations look like at that point but there are some values being created. i talk about this idea of going down just for reference the trailing pe peaked at 25.4, went down to 18 you already had that marked down in small caps. so it can happen it's already happened and has created value in small caps. >> doug, we got to go. thank you for leaving us with such happy thoughts this morning on a friday. appreciate it. >> all right have a good weekend. thanks >>> when we come back, president trump celebrated the deal to replace nafta with great fanfare. but it still has to pass congress in order to take effect is that going to happen? we will dig deeper into yet another congressional fight when "squawk box" returns in a ment a business