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you know ben bernanke he was at the fed now works for citadel the guy who runs citadel just made one hundred million dollars last year by getting guys like ben bernanke you suppose to be running the fed to engage in on lawful activities insider trading collusion sedition here you mamet ben bernanke he's guilty of it and that's the definition of a traitor but he's a lot it as some kind of intellectual unfortunately he's killing his country so you know again under forgot system you could be as stupid as you want especially whoever controls the printing press of the fee system and the global fee is the u.s. dollar so the u.s. dollar gets to act those to print the u.s. dollar get to act dumber and dumber than any other people on earth now in the united kingdom they feel like you know that they're the little poodles of america so that they get to act even as dumb as americans cat so that's why you have the likes of gavin williamson you know their defense undersecretary sort of person who is like well you're going to. get china you know if they had to come up with a gold a tobacco trying t
you know ben bernanke he was at the fed now works for citadel the guy who runs citadel just made one hundred million dollars last year by getting guys like ben bernanke you suppose to be running the fed to engage in on lawful activities insider trading collusion sedition here you mamet ben bernanke he's guilty of it and that's the definition of a traitor but he's a lot it as some kind of intellectual unfortunately he's killing his country so you know again under forgot system you could be as...
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at the time bernanke stepped up to the mic. paused in 2006 and they had been on hold for a better part of a year. bernanke gave a speech on the subprime mortgage crisis at which time he famously described subprime as isolated and contained. within three months the fed was rushing in with the fire hoses. today in powell's press conference after the fomc meeting, he was asked a question about corporate debt. and any froth there, whether the fed was concerned. he acknowledged as they have throughout that the levered loan market looked a little worrisome to them. but he added, almost verbatim, what bernanke said, which was, that he didn't see that as posing any broader threat to the financial system or the economy. charles: right. the image i'm putting in my head as you talk, the old science fiction movie, the monster is in the cage, no big deal. somehow the monster gets bigger one day, knocks down the cage, wipes out the town. is that the kind of threat we're looking at? is it imminent just like that? >> we'll find out very soon,
at the time bernanke stepped up to the mic. paused in 2006 and they had been on hold for a better part of a year. bernanke gave a speech on the subprime mortgage crisis at which time he famously described subprime as isolated and contained. within three months the fed was rushing in with the fire hoses. today in powell's press conference after the fomc meeting, he was asked a question about corporate debt. and any froth there, whether the fed was concerned. he acknowledged as they have...
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Feb 25, 2019
02/19
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you have that event when both yellen and bernanke were on tv with him and i wouldn't say they endorsed him, but saying that this guy is okay but the market never trusted the fed. but to a much greater degree they did at least have a calmer approach than they have had with powell you'd think it was greenspan again the way they treated powell the next thing would be related to the china deal, china has for the president of china, it is all about 2025 and a protracted trade war will hurt he needs hit best kucustomer and for donald trump, he needs 2020 so likely that it falls apart, a relatively small chance always a chance that we get hid by a cab, but we have to make it home >> all right thanks for coming by and get home safely. >> how you feeling about it willing the streets tonight? >> walking is like -- >> pedestrian way here in new york city where we become very european over the last five or six years. so the chances of me being hit by a cab on the way home are probably slim. that being said, i'm not nearly as optimistic in terms of a deal gettin getting done china's market has come
you have that event when both yellen and bernanke were on tv with him and i wouldn't say they endorsed him, but saying that this guy is okay but the market never trusted the fed. but to a much greater degree they did at least have a calmer approach than they have had with powell you'd think it was greenspan again the way they treated powell the next thing would be related to the china deal, china has for the president of china, it is all about 2025 and a protracted trade war will hurt he needs...
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Feb 22, 2019
02/19
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ALJAZ
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why of long you know bernanke finishes on law both the sixty go to sixty's voted. on done away on who she is the one you need to vote for you in front of the total we you know if i am still in the one out you know so well the most of them with all you know about them we are both in our boat. as well. good boat burden wishes to start us on against those who the person don't own after us. yeah but you have simply said let them go home i'm not suggesting it would you have any hope or solution you have was his first moment before your own i've only watched a commercial. a ranch or a bully mortars get near the start of a forest does not get up with the new systems they didn't. show the love corpus. the. heavy equipment. i knew was up which it's just some of the same without that as you and i would then as i would use which interesting misstep just subsidize with the world got to be glad to see it in that one so what's a digital channel the boss somebody myatt of the holy book when there's a copy to the t.v. we see most of spock when the dead but it's available what most
why of long you know bernanke finishes on law both the sixty go to sixty's voted. on done away on who she is the one you need to vote for you in front of the total we you know if i am still in the one out you know so well the most of them with all you know about them we are both in our boat. as well. good boat burden wishes to start us on against those who the person don't own after us. yeah but you have simply said let them go home i'm not suggesting it would you have any hope or solution you...
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Feb 6, 2019
02/19
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bernanke put, yellen put, and now we have the powell put. the notion that the fed will count how to the market, if the market craters hard enough, is very much alive. that will tempt people to buy on dips. now that may be televised because the market is expensive. the next bear market could be a doozy. interestingly, there are other places to invest that are cheap. emerging market stocks are priced at 13 times there 10-year smooth earnings. asrging markets value perhaps represented by fundamental index in emerging markets is priced at less than nine times the sustainable 10-year earnings. shery: low hanging fruit. >> if you can buy half of the world gdp for less than nine times earnings, why aren't earth would you place money at 30 times earnings in a slower growing economy? amanda: although we have seen her emerging markets relatively unloved. the strong u.s. dollar does not help. when you are picking those value stocks, particular areas you are looking at? sometimes value stocks are cheap for a reason. >> valley stocks are cheap for a reas
bernanke put, yellen put, and now we have the powell put. the notion that the fed will count how to the market, if the market craters hard enough, is very much alive. that will tempt people to buy on dips. now that may be televised because the market is expensive. the next bear market could be a doozy. interestingly, there are other places to invest that are cheap. emerging market stocks are priced at 13 times there 10-year smooth earnings. asrging markets value perhaps represented by...
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the keynesians like the paul krugman scenario or being in your own powell or janet yellen or ben bernanke who believe that the way to manage in the. to me is to focus on aggregate demand instead of competition there anti competitive they don't like competition they think it's causes quote losers instead they focus on aggregate demand by printing trillions and trillions and trillions of fake fear money the same way fog off farmers in france forced ducks to eat grain until their livers aren't extended and then they're harvested for their livers americans are being armistead by the health system for their own health their bad livers their bad health are being harvested by the obamacare american health industry after the. valar of forced aggregate keynesian nonsense in the form of money trillions so the orthodox thinking that would be found in the economist who are hired by the federal reserve bank find in the literature on paper low interest rates should encourage more a growth in the economy because it encourages companies to borrow and invest but what they found by looking at actual model
the keynesians like the paul krugman scenario or being in your own powell or janet yellen or ben bernanke who believe that the way to manage in the. to me is to focus on aggregate demand instead of competition there anti competitive they don't like competition they think it's causes quote losers instead they focus on aggregate demand by printing trillions and trillions and trillions of fake fear money the same way fog off farmers in france forced ducks to eat grain until their livers aren't...
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Feb 26, 2019
02/19
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bernanke yond stood in 2008, he had to reverse debt the best ways to do that was get wealth up. so he figure figured the best way was stotts the stock market up, but there's a disproportionate level of -- and the government tried suppression. you guys got a windfall from the stock market, but we'll give you no return on your savings. so you adjust the coupons on bonds and on treasuries, and short-term paper for inflation and interest rates, you're losing ground. >> right. >> now they're trying to say the wealthy have done so well because of the what the fed has done, we want to take it back. on elizabeth warren wasn't well tags and ooc was a 70% marginal tax. we have to do it in a different way. i believe in the progressive income tax structure i believe wealthy people should pay more i happen to believe that's my brother's keeper, but we have to agree as a nation mashed the maximum tax be, because that defines the yield to the u.s. government a lot of the politicians, they don't deal with it flat on i hope mr. buffett isn't happened with me on my use -- but i said i agree, what
bernanke yond stood in 2008, he had to reverse debt the best ways to do that was get wealth up. so he figure figured the best way was stotts the stock market up, but there's a disproportionate level of -- and the government tried suppression. you guys got a windfall from the stock market, but we'll give you no return on your savings. so you adjust the coupons on bonds and on treasuries, and short-term paper for inflation and interest rates, you're losing ground. >> right. >> now...
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Feb 8, 2019
02/19
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ben bernanke shot back, yeah, or they get murdered.d recession indicator, they take a look at the ten-month three year treasury yield curve. it is at its highest rate of 24% at this point. the 11th time the indicator has risen to this level since the 1960's. eight have been accompanied by a recession, according to our data. that is the new york fed recession indicator -- should we expect a recession in the next 12 months? what are you looking at? i think it is hard to call it right now because we are experiencing global slowdown. in europe, they have a gdp of 1.9% in the eu. china is pulling back. positive news out of the china, will let get back to 2% to 2.5%. earnings looked pretty good. we had a couple of notable earnings names, like facebook, apple, and boeing. some of these companies did really well and they are saying yes, we will slow down, but if you get 6% to 9% return on equity is, that is good as an investor. you might hang tight in the market for another year. next week, if we hear shutdown, no agreement with china, the fed
ben bernanke shot back, yeah, or they get murdered.d recession indicator, they take a look at the ten-month three year treasury yield curve. it is at its highest rate of 24% at this point. the 11th time the indicator has risen to this level since the 1960's. eight have been accompanied by a recession, according to our data. that is the new york fed recession indicator -- should we expect a recession in the next 12 months? what are you looking at? i think it is hard to call it right now because...
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Feb 20, 2019
02/19
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ALJAZ
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why of long you know bernanke finishes all know me post the sixty go to six he's gotten. on done i went to she's the one you're new to but you from france was a total we you know east i am still in the one out you know so well the most of them with all you know about them we are both in our boat. as well. good boat burden wishes to start us on against those who the person don't own after us. yeah but you have simply said let them go home what's at stake what you have any hope or solution you have was his first moment before your own i've only watched it in more than. a rancher a bully more the good news the star of russell he stop this not to get up with the new systems they didn't. show blog one of the. i think you're going to have. these you know what you read that stuff i knew was up which it's just some of the things that as you and i would then as i would use what's interesting misstep just the substance of the world what you just blotted out in that one so i want to develop you look at the bus somebody myatt of the holy book when there's a little bit we see most of
why of long you know bernanke finishes all know me post the sixty go to six he's gotten. on done i went to she's the one you're new to but you from france was a total we you know east i am still in the one out you know so well the most of them with all you know about them we are both in our boat. as well. good boat burden wishes to start us on against those who the person don't own after us. yeah but you have simply said let them go home what's at stake what you have any hope or solution you...
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Feb 22, 2019
02/19
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ordinary reasons that yellen and better knac bernanke thread the need older people are being physicaled out anphysical physical -- phased out and that has kept headline wage pressure from becoming an issue. that dynamic is not changing devel demographics move slowly so i don't foresee that sudden squall coming out of nowhere in all of a sudden it is an emergency, we have to start raising rates. when you look at the material side, technology is a huge deflationary pressure. look at how energy efficient the he cars are and all the way to building materials so you have these influences that have kept inflation in check. so this idea that all of a sudden the fed will turn on a dime, i would put that very far to the side of your investment process. >> and let's run through some of the bigd stock stories of the day. there are many none bigger than kraft heinz all-time low for that company slash being the dividends. says it has been subpoenaed by the s.e.c. earnings were a dsz isappointme. >> and this is short termism not the investor side, but from the corporate side so this is a bust. stock
ordinary reasons that yellen and better knac bernanke thread the need older people are being physicaled out anphysical physical -- phased out and that has kept headline wage pressure from becoming an issue. that dynamic is not changing devel demographics move slowly so i don't foresee that sudden squall coming out of nowhere in all of a sudden it is an emergency, we have to start raising rates. when you look at the material side, technology is a huge deflationary pressure. look at how energy...
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we should have ben bernanke and janet yellen and jay powell get down there.ted states and been failing for 10 years. you have got to get rid of the maduro-putin axis. you have got to wipe out the currency, what's left of it. you have got to run venezuela using u.s. dollars. that's what third world countries do after they have had hyper inflation. part of the bankruptcy will be to say that all of the global creditors of venezuela are simply going to get wiped out. russia is a major one. did you know russia effectively owns the u.s. energy company citgo? so we can't let that happen. liz: to your point about u.s. dollars coming in, remember the brady bonds? what's triking about this? we don't heart outrage from the left about what's going on in venezuela. i remember at one same beings * said food lines in venezuela are quote a good thing. what's wild about the destruction of socialism is venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world. can venezuela come back once they get rid of maduro? >> of course it can. there is nothing wrong with the venezuelan
we should have ben bernanke and janet yellen and jay powell get down there.ted states and been failing for 10 years. you have got to get rid of the maduro-putin axis. you have got to wipe out the currency, what's left of it. you have got to run venezuela using u.s. dollars. that's what third world countries do after they have had hyper inflation. part of the bankruptcy will be to say that all of the global creditors of venezuela are simply going to get wiped out. russia is a major one. did you...
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Feb 5, 2019
02/19
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also met in 2014 not listed there, 2011 between obama and bernanke and amid the financial crisis, bernankebair and obama met. tonight is the state of the union. we looked at the state of the economy under president trump and it looks pretty good the trump economy, 2.98% average gdp growth over the average six quarters, 1.6% inventory growth and greater equipment spending are the main sources of the added growth. the question is not if growth was higher under president trump. it definitely was. the question is whether it can stay that way. it's one of the questions for janet yellen i'll be sitting down with the former chair tomorrow at 2:30 in an exclusive interview mike sara >> one quick question for you, and certainly you can talk to janet yellen about this, but i think you know the answer, which is, how commonplace is it for the president to meet with the head of the federal reserve? this one didn't get a ton of attention as it would have when the president was still bashing the fed chairman but since he's been patient it's been quiet i'm wondering how unusual it is. >> since the fed piv
also met in 2014 not listed there, 2011 between obama and bernanke and amid the financial crisis, bernankebair and obama met. tonight is the state of the union. we looked at the state of the economy under president trump and it looks pretty good the trump economy, 2.98% average gdp growth over the average six quarters, 1.6% inventory growth and greater equipment spending are the main sources of the added growth. the question is not if growth was higher under president trump. it definitely was....
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Feb 22, 2019
02/19
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a very powerful effect on markets. >> since all stimulus is fungible through central banks, ben bernanke'sk of just this country, should be for all of the lever pullers. >> it is fed is reducing the balance sheet but has been given an out that the ecb and bank of japan have eased to offset it. if they were to change policy, i think you'd see big reaction here right now they're not. they're going to continue to ease. >> now we totally agree that we have done nine rate increases and the notion that oh my god, should we get in recession, we have to do quantitative easing, the other central banks don't have anything like that, they're negative i guess what i'm saying is in the end, bad news from europe and japan should they get more stimulative opens the door for the fed here to maybe grab a few more raises in an atmosphere that the markets would be able to take it better. >> the fear is if you try to sneak out a couple more raises, remember, recessions are caused because you murder the economy the biggest murderer is the fed. be careful. >> you're saying there are very few avenues for our cen
a very powerful effect on markets. >> since all stimulus is fungible through central banks, ben bernanke'sk of just this country, should be for all of the lever pullers. >> it is fed is reducing the balance sheet but has been given an out that the ecb and bank of japan have eased to offset it. if they were to change policy, i think you'd see big reaction here right now they're not. they're going to continue to ease. >> now we totally agree that we have done nine rate increases...
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Feb 12, 2019
02/19
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and conduct the work beyond the supervision of janet yellen and before her ben bernanke. now my -- i find one year into my job it's a very different job. i do have now oversight over all those other committees, but i find myself as chair focusing on a few particular things. first is public communications and public relations. public speeches, events like this. are very important. it's -- public communications is a critical aspect of this job. in addition i do a great deal of outreach to congress. i was up there today. i'll be up there tomorrow. i'll be up there friday. part of it is in our system of government we have precious independence from political concerns. as i mentioned we do things on a nonpolitical basis. we serve long terms and directed to carry out our work in a nonpolitical way. the other side of that has to be in a democracy accountability to the public. our accountability to the public runs through congress. we have twice annual hearings that i testify in in the senate and house. that's a big part of what i do. i also have relationships with the senior --
and conduct the work beyond the supervision of janet yellen and before her ben bernanke. now my -- i find one year into my job it's a very different job. i do have now oversight over all those other committees, but i find myself as chair focusing on a few particular things. first is public communications and public relations. public speeches, events like this. are very important. it's -- public communications is a critical aspect of this job. in addition i do a great deal of outreach to...
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Feb 12, 2019
02/19
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trap i say, look if you believe that we are in a fed-induced bubble we have bee in one since ben bernanke he is steroid the economy with his excessive rate hikes that drove us off a cliff in to the great receptio it's not a bubble, it's th federal reserve doing their job. i don't think our current fe chief cares about the stoc market at all he worries about main street until last week he was protecting them from the wrong thing, inflation no, did deflanges that was a mistake when he talked about tightenin three more times in 2019, th consumer price index wen negative i can't stress it enough which they talk about fed-induced people they think it should be laying wait waste to economy, the stock marke crashed in the fourth quarter it crashed because recessions are bad for business, ben powell realized no need to at this time en and put the fed-mandate recession on hold and stocks came roaring back up 17% it' not a bubble it's business a usual. why is that so important a agreeing economy say goo thing i can't believe i even have to make this argue up why would anyone want the fed to start a
trap i say, look if you believe that we are in a fed-induced bubble we have bee in one since ben bernanke he is steroid the economy with his excessive rate hikes that drove us off a cliff in to the great receptio it's not a bubble, it's th federal reserve doing their job. i don't think our current fe chief cares about the stoc market at all he worries about main street until last week he was protecting them from the wrong thing, inflation no, did deflanges that was a mistake when he talked...
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Feb 6, 2019
02/19
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interviewing her today we'll get her perspectives on the history of the fed under yellen and ben bernanke and a look to the present fed chairman, mr. powell, and how he's doing and what she thinks the state of the economy is doing. we heard from the state of the union address. and from many people's point of view, the economy is firing on all cylinders. one company is not the president's favorite company it's the company "the new york times. and it seems to be doing very well in terms of most especially digital subscriptions added also advertising revenues largely driven by a growth in that digital area. we'll have the ceo of "the times" will join us, mark thompson >> many pine for janet yellen. they never like you when you're there but then afterwards they go, she did a pretty good job. >> the challenge for mr. powell, so far, apart from the policy making challenges, have been the messaging challenges and that maybe less is more. i question whether there should be a press conference after every one of these he is all for the transparency, but sometimes you think maybe you are better off
interviewing her today we'll get her perspectives on the history of the fed under yellen and ben bernanke and a look to the present fed chairman, mr. powell, and how he's doing and what she thinks the state of the economy is doing. we heard from the state of the union address. and from many people's point of view, the economy is firing on all cylinders. one company is not the president's favorite company it's the company "the new york times. and it seems to be doing very well in terms of...
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Feb 6, 2019
02/19
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yellen had a little trouble in her first year ben bernanke had some.very fed chairman is allowed a couple of missteps in the first year there's nothing wrong with the policy that powell is following right now. what he hasn't yet given is a good transcription of the description of the overall framework. i'm still unclear on exact hily why the fed doesn't think he needs to raise rates he wanted inflation to be higher than 2%? because he thinks the economy's growth rate is somewhat fragile, t is it because there's god forbid a powell put and he's hyper sensitive about the markets? these are questions that i don't think have been adequately answered >> michael, back to you. when the chair spoke there about quantitative tightening and putting it on autopilot, which she copped to as the originator of that phrase, she said she meant it as a reassuring sort of quotient in the equation and that obviously under mr. powell, who wasd to be so >> you know, that was the one thing that i heard chair yellen say that struck me as perhaps a bit disingenuous i think the
yellen had a little trouble in her first year ben bernanke had some.very fed chairman is allowed a couple of missteps in the first year there's nothing wrong with the policy that powell is following right now. what he hasn't yet given is a good transcription of the description of the overall framework. i'm still unclear on exact hily why the fed doesn't think he needs to raise rates he wanted inflation to be higher than 2%? because he thinks the economy's growth rate is somewhat fragile, t is...
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Feb 25, 2019
02/19
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FBC
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bernanke and yellen missed the bubble, got everything wrong, takes rates down to 0% for eight years, creating another asset bubble, screwing the savers of this great country of ours, and she's trying to tell us who knows what on the economy. i don't think so. we should have been abolishing the fed a very long time ago. they continue to manipulate and rig interest rates in order to do their bidding and all it's done is enable $22 trillion of our debt that i don't think will ever be paid back and hopefully does not blow up one day. >> i do think it's interesting to look at the fed over a long spectrum. it's been in business for 105 years. only once, according to some people who follow these sorts of things has the fed been able to slow the economy without causing recession. that is to say, follow its mandate which is to basically provide jobs and control inflation. they have not been particularly successful in that over time. so it is amazing that we give them so much latitude and power in trying to direct our economy. some people think that's a mistake. david: if we can pull back just
bernanke and yellen missed the bubble, got everything wrong, takes rates down to 0% for eight years, creating another asset bubble, screwing the savers of this great country of ours, and she's trying to tell us who knows what on the economy. i don't think so. we should have been abolishing the fed a very long time ago. they continue to manipulate and rig interest rates in order to do their bidding and all it's done is enable $22 trillion of our debt that i don't think will ever be paid back and...
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Feb 26, 2019
02/19
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he thought both yellen and bernanke had not done as good a job of taking care of congress as they should have. and i think he saw the writing on the wall with this particular president, because i think he expected the president might one of these days criticize powell and what the fed knows and what the fed thinks is they're beholden to congress congress is the one that writes the checks, creates the federal reserve act, and that's what they have to take care of. taking care of -- the president doesn't matter as much as if he has trouble in congress, so that was from day one we'll see, melissa, by the way, tomorrow when he sits in front of the house how much some of that politicking may or may not have helped him. >> steve, thank you. steve liesman back at headquarters so this is exactly what the markets wanted, right? right? pause? >> let's be clear. arguably the most important thing that's happened to markets in the last six months that is obviously ahead of the trade war. so yes, i think the fact that the fed also is allowing inflation to be defined differently, which allows them when
he thought both yellen and bernanke had not done as good a job of taking care of congress as they should have. and i think he saw the writing on the wall with this particular president, because i think he expected the president might one of these days criticize powell and what the fed knows and what the fed thinks is they're beholden to congress congress is the one that writes the checks, creates the federal reserve act, and that's what they have to take care of. taking care of -- the president...
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Feb 4, 2019
02/19
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under ben bernanke's leadership for having dropped the ball. it's nice to have the ability to point the finger at somebody else and my experience having served in two administrations before i was at the fed is congress likes to point their fingers elsewhere. they never point their fingers at themselves. and the same thing for the chief executive officer. it's nice to have a pinata which is what the fed is in this case to beat upon as long as they hold together, don't burst open and spill all the candy out to everybody and they do their job. i think that's what the federal reserve does >> i like that metaphor. pina pinata steady hand, but it's interesting the markets so latched onto this term that jay powell had from october 3rd to the beginning of january but there's not the notion of the flip side. that is if he was that sensitive to what the markets were telegraphing in that short amount of time and changed his stance to that degree, could we see the reverse if the market is telegraphed again in a different direction? >> perhaps i think the f
under ben bernanke's leadership for having dropped the ball. it's nice to have the ability to point the finger at somebody else and my experience having served in two administrations before i was at the fed is congress likes to point their fingers elsewhere. they never point their fingers at themselves. and the same thing for the chief executive officer. it's nice to have a pinata which is what the fed is in this case to beat upon as long as they hold together, don't burst open and spill all...
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Feb 1, 2019
02/19
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december 12, 2018, the fed still had a hawkish stance but on january more dovishirs along with ben bernankeet yellen and we see the down fromeld and there. the question is whether or not the fed stays in place. wednesday's meeting with the just that may be the case. rally, it ising of friday at 1 p.m. which means we have the huge rate counter. i look at the number of rigs falling. oilaccording to the breakdown. the drop in supplies and part of what is pushing prices higher. you have now the lowest number of rigs going back since may. so, a lot of this drop-off is why we're pushing crude prices, 55, the highest since november. and you have citigroup coming out yesterday. undersupply is behind the recent rally. he sees prices going higher by another $10 a barrel in the next month. part of this is refiners are scribbling for alternative fuels. with no supply from canada or mexico. lost supply coming from venezuela. and deepening of iran's sanctions could mean speculators could boost oil prices by another 10%. to 20% in the coming months a retail orsk restaurant executive about how their busine
december 12, 2018, the fed still had a hawkish stance but on january more dovishirs along with ben bernankeet yellen and we see the down fromeld and there. the question is whether or not the fed stays in place. wednesday's meeting with the just that may be the case. rally, it ising of friday at 1 p.m. which means we have the huge rate counter. i look at the number of rigs falling. oilaccording to the breakdown. the drop in supplies and part of what is pushing prices higher. you have now the...
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if i heard right, people like ben bernanke were also looking for a recession in 2020.ainly because of the fiscal cliff. maybe i'm being too cynical about politicians, but it will be, a year from now, we are heading into the big election. allow thereally fiscal cliff to happen? we will see. rishaad: just getting back to el paso, the scene at the moment is that the rabble is being browsed by donald trump. -- roused by donald trump. there is the rally. make america great again. talking about this tentative deal that congress has come up with which would partially fund the wall. it is all to him as to whether he agrees or not. themis the likelihood of averting this shutdown and how important is it that they do so? cliff: i think it's very important politically. i think republicans did themselves a lot of damage. even though there was this fear of a shutdown again, i guess i have not been too disposed to believing that. rishaad: how damaging is it economically? takahide kiuchi, economist at nomura research institute the numbers are out -- cliff: the numbers are out at about
if i heard right, people like ben bernanke were also looking for a recession in 2020.ainly because of the fiscal cliff. maybe i'm being too cynical about politicians, but it will be, a year from now, we are heading into the big election. allow thereally fiscal cliff to happen? we will see. rishaad: just getting back to el paso, the scene at the moment is that the rabble is being browsed by donald trump. -- roused by donald trump. there is the rally. make america great again. talking about this...
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. >> bernanke said in 2018 the economy was fine. we're getting the same thing out of the same fed chairman today. yet, mike, we're seeing these numbers coming out of europe and germany, great britain with the deadline of march 29th for brexit, they don't even have a plan, where is the growth going to come from to support stocks at current levels? that is what is my concern. >> can i answer that? first-quarter earnings in the u.s., look all companies in u.s., guided down in first quarter. we could see contraction first time in earnings in the u.s., arguably stronger than europe and certainly china. neil: they have been off before. when this quarter was supposed to be, the quarter we completed was supposed to be six to 7% earnings growth. we're double that. >> i think, you talk about growth, we have strong gdp growth here in the u.s. we don't necessarily -- the united states of america? >> g ge p is being lowered -- gd being is being lowered. >> from what to what? >> look italy. >> u.s. >> we're in global economy. >> we are in global
. >> bernanke said in 2018 the economy was fine. we're getting the same thing out of the same fed chairman today. yet, mike, we're seeing these numbers coming out of europe and germany, great britain with the deadline of march 29th for brexit, they don't even have a plan, where is the growth going to come from to support stocks at current levels? that is what is my concern. >> can i answer that? first-quarter earnings in the u.s., look all companies in u.s., guided down in first...
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i'm a very good friend of ben bernanke, but he was a hero. he got t that helped a lot in preventing a depression, which really could have happened so i think the issue here is that the likelihood is much less of having that kind of a shock i don't see it as something that we need to worry about but on the other hand, i think the fed has to be vigilant and i think the fed not only has to be vigilant against negative shocks in terms of the overall economy in the u.s. and elsewhere, but also the possibility that running it at this high-pressure economy could actually mean inflationary pressures may surprise us. that happens, the fed has to get cracking and raise interest rates and that's extremely important as part of what central banks need to do. >> it's a big either/or. final question, sarah, who has a tougher job, yellen or powell? >> well, at the moment, it's actually powell, because he's the one in the seat. he is the one in the driver's seat. >> i'll rephrase who had a tougher hand as the fed chairman >> when they took the role >> it's in
i'm a very good friend of ben bernanke, but he was a hero. he got t that helped a lot in preventing a depression, which really could have happened so i think the issue here is that the likelihood is much less of having that kind of a shock i don't see it as something that we need to worry about but on the other hand, i think the fed has to be vigilant and i think the fed not only has to be vigilant against negative shocks in terms of the overall economy in the u.s. and elsewhere, but also the...
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tom: in the spirit of ben bernanke, who has told me he is isn'tncerned about this, their advantage theif they can bring the balance that down over a timeline market participants aren't focused on? gene: i think without question. again, most fed watchers would tell you that the impact of this is equivalent to very marginal tightening in fed funds. isis really about signaling, the fed continuing to tighten or is it going to neutral? from that perspective, whether it is rates are the balance sheet -- i agree with bill dudley. if you look at the impact on the balance sheet estimates from an earlier and, a qualitative , it makes very little difference at all, but it is a messaging of, we feel like we are appropriate and don't need to tighten. in an environment where growth is weak everywhere, that is a really important message. nejra: so you are saying it is more important about whether the messaging is a dovish or hawkish affect, rather than the market focusing on the intricacies of the balance sheet. have a locked into a place of complacency at the start of this year? we have had this pau
tom: in the spirit of ben bernanke, who has told me he is isn'tncerned about this, their advantage theif they can bring the balance that down over a timeline market participants aren't focused on? gene: i think without question. again, most fed watchers would tell you that the impact of this is equivalent to very marginal tightening in fed funds. isis really about signaling, the fed continuing to tighten or is it going to neutral? from that perspective, whether it is rates are the balance sheet...
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thought of as the balance sheet but in terms ofactually affecting the way credit markets work ben bernanke hated the word quantitative easing and used to say it's credit easing he's exactly right that's the way they're thinking about it at this particular juncture, this is all about monetary policy control it doesn't tell us about the policy in the future. >> frederic mishkin, thank you for joining us on the heels of those minutes. >>> eugene profitt from profitt investments and rick santelli. eugene, i'll start with you. >> i think the fed is exactly where they should be if you go back to predecember 24th, they were saying slow in economic growth and the stock market reacted to basically the fed being a friend and have the fed put in place i think that essentially the issue the fed is seeing slowing growth, uncertainty in trade policy and effectively, by stopping the raised interest rates i don't think they're done i think they've done exactly the right thing. now we have dislocation between stock prices moving higher and economic growth slowing. usually it works simultaneously that econo
thought of as the balance sheet but in terms ofactually affecting the way credit markets work ben bernanke hated the word quantitative easing and used to say it's credit easing he's exactly right that's the way they're thinking about it at this particular juncture, this is all about monetary policy control it doesn't tell us about the policy in the future. >> frederic mishkin, thank you for joining us on the heels of those minutes. >>> eugene profitt from profitt investments and...
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other steps >> you know, i was reading some articles written right after the credit crisis when ben bernankenegative interest rates he's a lot more polite about the words he spoke back 20 years ago when he thought it was really a bad idea do you think the u.s. would ever, should we go into recession, use that tool in our tool box to not only go to zero, phil, but maybe go negative? lot of research says it is a good thing. >> yeah, there's interesting research from san francisco fed saying it would be effective, i'm just doubtful. i look at the european experience, maybe it helped them some, but i don't think anyone looks at europe as the engine of the global economy if things get bad in the u.s., instead of zero interest rates, do more qe, we can do more, do things on the fiscal side. >> we're out of time i like the ideas, if we could get both parties of congress to ever think they can come up with one. david, back to you >> thank you, rick santelli. >>> let's send it over to jon fortt. we're sending it a long way today. he has a look at what's coming up on "squawk alley. >> hey, david, i'm
other steps >> you know, i was reading some articles written right after the credit crisis when ben bernankenegative interest rates he's a lot more polite about the words he spoke back 20 years ago when he thought it was really a bad idea do you think the u.s. would ever, should we go into recession, use that tool in our tool box to not only go to zero, phil, but maybe go negative? lot of research says it is a good thing. >> yeah, there's interesting research from san francisco fed...
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yellen and obama again november 2014 and then when we were in the middle of the banking crisis, bernankebair and president obama met in 2009, sara. >> steve, i wonder whether the president had the chefs delay bringing out the food just to see how patiently the fed chair would wait in the meantime. >> that's a good point i didn't ask that question, wilf i should have figured out how patient to wait for, for example, one hour, two hours i understand the whole thing was 90 minutes. >> maybe not that long back to the serious point. clearly there have been meetings of this sort in the past as you listed. >> right. >> but never to the same extent as heated. i guess had this happened six weeks ago or two months ago the focus would have been extreme, would it not >> i would think so and i would think they wouldn't meet and didn't do and may be why look as far as i can tell, the heat is only rhetorical heat only on one side the way these things work is congress complains about the fed all they want and the president will the fed cannot essentially publicly answer back and only say we don't make t
yellen and obama again november 2014 and then when we were in the middle of the banking crisis, bernankebair and president obama met in 2009, sara. >> steve, i wonder whether the president had the chefs delay bringing out the food just to see how patiently the fed chair would wait in the meantime. >> that's a good point i didn't ask that question, wilf i should have figured out how patient to wait for, for example, one hour, two hours i understand the whole thing was 90 minutes....
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the balance sheet but on the lending front clo comment this is reminiscent to me of may 2007 when bernankeated contained, saying there would be no broader fallout to financial system or economy that is almost verbatim what pawole powell said clarida that is the line now. >> to compare financial crisis entire world melted down what we're seeing today, maybe you can make that stretch talking about how deeply indebted governments are but you don't have that kind of systemic risk we saw nearly destroyed the global financial -- >> not in banking i think the problem this time is in the nonbank secretary of stat secon holds loans pension funds, insurance companies every one had to load the boat on riskiest debts to get any return, and their ability to get into illiquid securities facilitated by rise of etfs trade all manner of totally illiquid junk debt. and, you know, create this ail illusion there is liquidity in the market i think we find out that isn't the case can when that market is tested you are right this there is excess in terms of banking system capital ratios much better. and but ther
the balance sheet but on the lending front clo comment this is reminiscent to me of may 2007 when bernankeated contained, saying there would be no broader fallout to financial system or economy that is almost verbatim what pawole powell said clarida that is the line now. >> to compare financial crisis entire world melted down what we're seeing today, maybe you can make that stretch talking about how deeply indebted governments are but you don't have that kind of systemic risk we saw...
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there's also an august or i think 2011 bernanke and obama meeting. then to talk banking reform.le of years or so this happens >> i think what's probably so notable about this is that it was just last week that the fed really went into dove overdrive which is what the president had been calling for >> dover drive there we go. >> but i can understand why the fed was so eager to get a statement out there saying all that was discussed was nothing beyond the scope last week we are still data dependent. we are not making plans to do anything else beyond >> as far as i could tell at least in the 2016 one, there was no statement released. >> right >> this is what the meeting was all about. that was -- they took pains to make sure there was no sense at all. >> wouldn't it seem it inoculated from the president's bidding. rig right? yes, they backed off from there. i had said before the december meeting. >> krital to the operation of monetary policy. >> it's not the white house speaking this was the fed deciding. >> you need to understand how the fed believes policy is affected and that's
there's also an august or i think 2011 bernanke and obama meeting. then to talk banking reform.le of years or so this happens >> i think what's probably so notable about this is that it was just last week that the fed really went into dove overdrive which is what the president had been calling for >> dover drive there we go. >> but i can understand why the fed was so eager to get a statement out there saying all that was discussed was nothing beyond the scope last week we are...
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bernanke set up to ask the question what could go wrong and how could we be prepared for it?crazy. >> it's an important distinction. >> it is >> gentlemen, thank you very much david wessel, phil swagel, and steve liesman. >>> coming up when we return, your biggest market movers of the morning. and calls from long-time market timer milton berg. check out tjx, best buy, and lowe's all reporting earnings this morning plus we are waiting for the end of the dinner in vietnam between president trump and kim jong-un. no word if they will speak to the press after dinner, but if th do eyyou will see it here live "squawk box" will return in just moment 300 miles an hour, that's where i feel normal. having an annuity tells me my retirement is protected. learn more at retire your risk dot org. ♪ don't fence me in. ♪ let me be by myself ♪ in the evenin' breeze, ♪ listen to the murmur of the tall concrete, ♪ ♪ send me off forever, but i ask you please ♪ ♪ don't fence me in. special offers available at your local mini dealer. >>> welcome back to "squawk box" this morning take a quick look a
bernanke set up to ask the question what could go wrong and how could we be prepared for it?crazy. >> it's an important distinction. >> it is >> gentlemen, thank you very much david wessel, phil swagel, and steve liesman. >>> coming up when we return, your biggest market movers of the morning. and calls from long-time market timer milton berg. check out tjx, best buy, and lowe's all reporting earnings this morning plus we are waiting for the end of the dinner in...
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it has in japan so this is the issue central bankers are create i have we showed that under ben bernanke'sp during the crisis they'll be thinking this through, they're long-term thinkers and an independent able body that was important so this is my concern. we didn't move enough on the upside we're at a point where it's beginning to bite and there's not much to give back. you want to have money in your pocket and you want to cut rates to mitigate a down tournament inflation isn't the issue. would deflation be the issue in the future so we have the possibility of holding still for a while. we'll see what happens in the global economy and see if it infects our economy and we don't live by ourselves in the world so it's a high probability. >> i want to talk about the banks merger we've seen this morning, bb&t and suntrust creating the sixth biggest in the u.s. what's your take on that what do you think the regulators' take will be >> i don't know, quarrels is a very good leader on the regulatory side on the federal reserve. i presume this was well tested beforehand i presume there was discuss
it has in japan so this is the issue central bankers are create i have we showed that under ben bernanke'sp during the crisis they'll be thinking this through, they're long-term thinkers and an independent able body that was important so this is my concern. we didn't move enough on the upside we're at a point where it's beginning to bite and there's not much to give back. you want to have money in your pocket and you want to cut rates to mitigate a down tournament inflation isn't the issue....
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generation that it's right but i don't know there's some merit that there's no free lunches to what bernankejust stays on -- if the balance sheet stays at 4%, 3.5% for does that mean they're going to have to buy stuff to keep it that size if there's runoff >> the getting out scenario is -- even though it's taken longer, getting out is tough right now. the market sort of told powell -- i don't know what it was. but the markets told him to stop, right. and the markets shouldn't dictate -- >> the market should not >> what else should dictate it thanks to andres and david >>> let's get you some of the headlines. here's what's making news at this hour. the controversy over amazon's decision to abandon its planned new york city headquarters continues this morning politicians who oppose the deal thought the incentives offered to amazon were too generous. those who supported the deal point to the loss of 25,000 jobs we' >>> we're watching shares of pepsico this morning they reported $1.49 per share. revenue was higher than expected pepsi gave a forecast for the year that falls below estimates due to
generation that it's right but i don't know there's some merit that there's no free lunches to what bernankejust stays on -- if the balance sheet stays at 4%, 3.5% for does that mean they're going to have to buy stuff to keep it that size if there's runoff >> the getting out scenario is -- even though it's taken longer, getting out is tough right now. the market sort of told powell -- i don't know what it was. but the markets told him to stop, right. and the markets shouldn't dictate --...