jonathan: joining me around the table today is michael temple, doug peeples, and krishna money. krishna, i want to begin with you. doesn't take much to shake confidence and conviction. this week it was the soft retail sales number. to end the week, manufacturing concerns. how hard is it to get a read on the u.s. economy right now? >> i don't think it is really that hard. the u.s. economy coming into 2019 had a great deal of momentum, things were slowing down. things cannot slow down so rapidly in such a short period of time. i think we have had these had fix in the past as well, we will get through it. u.s. growth probably stabilizes around 2%. our point in all of this is people who are expecting this -- recession anytime soon are going to be sorely disappointed. five more years. jonathan: what is interesting at someone from morgan university wrote about the confirmation bias. if you look at the economy and you already have your own assumptions on where we are going, this confirms. which goes back to my previous question. it is a little bit more difficult not to get your hands a