let's get back to michael mckee. the president has new nominees for the fed, one of whom is judy shelton, american director for the ebit and we talked to her about what her attitudes toward monetary policy work. this is part of what she said. : i welcome this newfound humility on the part of the fed, the watchful waiting, and i think it is an admission that central bankers are not always omniscient in knowing exactly where interest rate should be. i think it would be healthier if we had a more organically determine interest rate that reflected market thinking. david: that is interesting. it is not the fomc determining, it is organic. what does that mean? michael: in other interviews she said that that should not substitute its view for the market view. one presumes she would be suggesting we look at what market interest rates are where we use some other measure. she has argued we should go back to the gold standard. david: i am literally confused. ratesrket sets interest according to what they think the fed is doing

michael mckee, over to you. michael: something different. labor market is making you come and work. your eyes will be bleary and your head might hurt a little bit, so i will solve one of the questions you might have an show you why we might see a distortion in the jobs numbers. it is that time in the decade when the census bureau starts hiring develop for the senses in the coming year. what we see is in 2010 a big ramp-up in the hiring from the lows of 2009. we might begin to see the numbers get distorted. we begin to see additional people coming on the payroll, which means the gold line, which is normal payroll, and the white line which is senses hiring, and you can see the little bit in 2009, we will get that in 2019. you have to look at private payrolls and subtract out what the government figure is to get the real number. that was in may. we are overdue for that kind of jump in the hiring. guy: anything that gets me ahead of the curve gets my vote. friday will be difficult for a lot of people but that will help. however, i will give it t

david: michael mckee, i want to come back to you in washington. see upward revision last month, last month numbers seem to be right. is there a timing issue? michael: there may be a timing issue. you never know with the may payroll,eachers go off bus drivers go off payroll, we had to amusement parks, but the revisions were small, 3000, a total in two months of 11,000. it does not tell you the economy has changed in one way or the other. a lot of economists but may was a fluke and this will add credence. let me ask you about the implications for the fed. a lot have been describing the fed rate cuts as precautionary or insurance cuts. if that is the case, does the fed need to have a weak jobs number to justify it? jobs data is notoriously lacking. ira: i do not think they need to have a low. you've seen inconsistent job data over the last couple of months. the fact that you have survey data in the manufacturing sector moving lower as well as the ism services moving lower, and retail sales have not been growing at the pace the fed would like. that wou

joining us now is michael mckee. twitchyy, the market is , you could say. we have seen such close watching of comments made by williams. how did you interpret them? the fed felt like they needed to walk it back, but he says he was not saying what the markets thought he was saying. mike: what he said was very accurate, this is new research that has come out, featured at the chicago conference a month ago, about the need to move more whenly, more decisively you have the economy at the zero lower bound, when you don't have a lot of room to cut interest rates. as he did not couch it academic research at the time and i'm not talking about what we are doing in march. the market that wanted to cut dramatically read it as a promise to do that. shortly after, richard clarida was asked if they should do more. he gave the comment then. he was not specifically referring to july 31 either, but because the markets, as you say are twitchy, they want to do that. it is kind of odd because both guys know the way it works, and the market do not read their speeches, just look

now michael mckee at the fed.rkutting the interest rate and ending the balance sheet now, two months early. there were two dissenters, the most in jerome powell's tenure. they wanted to keep the rate unchanged. the rate cut to a range of 2.25%-2% comes in light of the implications of global development as well as muted inflation pressures, the statement says. there is nothing explicit, but there might be a hint about future rate moves. an repetition of language

david: many thanks to bloomberg's michael mckee. let's find out what is going on in the markets with emma chandra . emma: a mixed situation for u.s. equities after a morning session that looked like we were extending yesterday's afternoon rally. we are now seeing the majors off their highs in the s&p 500 just got back into the green but it had fallen into the red. investors focused on corporate earnings, of which we are seeing a mixed picture. also trying to assess will be happening with interest rates given signals we have been given and geopolitics. i want to take a step back. if you take a look at july and what we have seen with the s&p 500 and all the majors over the course of this month so far, we have seen modest gains, modest losses and we are actually seeing a small trading range. you can see the bar at the very end, that is the trading range for july. we are looking at the smallest trading range for the s&p 500 per month since 2017. that has not stopped the investors in microsoft. we should be up to show you an intraday cha

let's go back to michael mckee. we were talking about the trade truce between president trump and president xi. my question is what does it mean for the economy? we will put up a chart that shows pmi, china down, europe down, u.s. just over 50. how much of the growth in the world is being driven by trade uncertainty? michael: much of it. the peaks were in the middle of last year and the tariffs were imposed on china and we started to see global manufacturing rollover and move away from the peaks to being in contraction territory. china moving in that over the last segment. teargase are seeing being dispersed by the riot police in hong kong. i am surmising that is what you are seeing. it appears the police are trying to disperse the crowd outside, not clear what is going on inside the legislative council. we are watching this story as it develops. how much of this is just plain uncertainty? the tariffs are not that material in terms of global transactionen the between the united states and china in terms of their eco

coming up, we have fed chair powell's testimony, but first we want to get to michael mckee in idaho. we have a very special interview. that is all coming up next, so you don't want to miss all of that. this is bloomberg. ♪ michael: good morning to everybody on bloomberg television and radio worldwide. i'm michael mckee, bloomberg's international policy course on it. barkin of the richmond fed. yesterday chair powell went basically markets and said we are going to cut rates in july. did markets get the right idea? tom: i think he said the same thing we've been saying for the last month, which is we don't have forward guidance anymore in the memo. we are watching very carefully what is happening in the data, and we are looking very much at upside and downside risks. at this point, they are a little more tilted to the downside, which is why we are looking at that. michael: the market has basically priced in a 100% chance of a rate cut now. can you go against the markets? tom: we have a lot of time left before the meeting. we will see what happens. cpi came in this morning. we will get re

david: we are joined by lananh n guyen and michael mckee. even as we are speaking, we have european union leadership meeting once again in brussels. michael: well, they are supposed to start meeting, but they may be watching our show. lisa: but slightly. [laughter] michael: they are struggling to come up with a compromise. germans and french seem to be working well with the dutch to come up with leadership for the various commissioned posts, but the italians and others in the periphery haven't cooperated. they don't want to just be a franco german domination of everything. but there is a new plan i find kinda fascinating. it would put the german defense minister in charge of the european commission and christine lagarde of the imf would become the head of the ecb, which would put two women in the top jobs in europe at a time when the united states has five women running for the democratic presidential nomination. we may be seeing the year of the in u.s. politics last year spreading around the world. of course, they are german and french, so w

victoria fernandes is still with us in houston. , from what we just heard from michael mckee, are theinted with this approach? michael: i don't think so. what you heard in the opening remarks still strongly suggest they will be easing policy. they continue to highlight the uncertainties weighing on the outlook rather than highlighting the jobs report or the arguably benign g20 outcome. reminds the markets and the public that many participants saw case for easing at the last meeting and high levels of uncertainty. i think it suggests they will be inclined to ease. i do not think they should be read as a disappointment, certainly for those looking for easier policy. david: does this give any -- alix: does this give any indication if we will see frontloaded cutting or if we will see a prolonged rate cutting cycle? does this give any caller? michael: i think it is hard to infer from this statement whether they are thinking about 25 or 50. there was nothing that suggested an economic crisis. he did say the economy have performed reasonably well but there are uncertainties weighing on the o

michael mckee has talked a lot about the amazon effect of how the economy is shifting. how do we explain what is going on right now? >> we have record low employment which is just fantastic. as powell said, people are are starting to be brought into the labor force who were formally not, including lower skilled people. he says people are now training those lower skilled people. that will show up in increased wages in the long run. couple that with technology, amazon, we have a lot more goods. consumers are a lot better off now than ever before, and that's fantastic. but one thing powell mentioned which is important is the trade tensions, and -- they call it a crosscurrents. i would call it a negative on the economy. that is potentially dragging things down. they are now engaging in what they call accommodative policy of these other bad policies in the global economy, we are going to try to potentially counteract that. i'm not sure if that is a good idea from an overall perspective to be hiding problems. the more we hide problems, if it willtart coupling, it eliminate th

also with us, michael mckee. mike, let me start with you. what are we expecting from the ecb? ll they preempt the fed or waited out? michael: it looks like they will wait the fed out. there was move of action tomorrow after the disappointing pmi data out of europe. it is only about 37% priced in. right now, likely that they will set the table for september. they have to decide what they are going to use as a tool or what commendation of tools. each one has problems they have to work out if they want to do tearing for the banks for a lower deposit rate, what kind of tearing program do they set up? that sort of thing. we will hear more from mario draghi about what they hope to do, but without details. amber: from your perspective, how extreme do you think the ecb is willing to get here? we have heard this idea floated out by blackrock ceo that you could even see eventually the ecb going out and buying stocks. one is the threshold of getting to that level? sassan: i think that is a very interesting idea. i don't think it is going to happen under draghi's leadership. they havecussi

tom: michael mckee, what is the track record on qe? like four months ago? onferences as they are doing their look at monetary -- tom: you go to them all. michael: that has been the subject of the argument. the you look at announcement dates, rates went down and they go back up again. does it have a long-term effect? they are not sure. tom: was this in the textbooks? the answer is no. kathy: the answer is no. tom: it wasn't, was it? kathy: everything we are doing now is unprecedented. the globe is going through things we never thought we would go through. no one ever talked about negative interest rates, so these are new things. tom: we have to go to break, but we have to come back here. i want to get kathy fisher's opinion of how to synthesize this into investment, extraordinary times. later, an update on china, navarro of the white house. ♪ ♪ most of us don't know how much data we use, but we all know we're paying too much for it. enter xfinity mobile. america's best lte with the most wifi hotspots, combined for the first time. when you're near an xfinity h

we are joined by lisa abramowicz and michael mckee. 72 hours, has a busy giving a speech to open this boston press conference and then going down to d.c. michael: you don't have to pay any attention to boston. towill be fed by satellite the conference. tomorrow, you have to be sitting in front of your bloomberg terminal and watching jay powell. he has to ratify the idea of the month, which the markets are anticipating, or we will have incredible market disruptions. one would expect that he will try to leave himself some wiggle room. he will say we will watch the data and act appropriately. maybe it goes up probably not. lisa: it is a fine needle to thread. he not only has to give the market what it wants with the promise of some sort of rate cut, but he has to telegraph that this doesn't mean the u.s. economy is in bad shape. basically saying we don't think things are that bad. given where we are globally with interest rates and with inflation, we think perhaps we made a mistake, perhaps where we are right now -- he's not going to say we made a mistake, but he might say we've reassess

michael mckee. what you have? remember during the great recession we heard stories about people living their parents basements and no one getting together but now they're all sitting in a tree and all of that and household formations are rising very the problem for the economy's new home sales are not keeping up. you can see that in the graph. the white line is new home sales. the blue line's household formations. you will have to match those together. why do we care? the fed may be cutting rates to try to boost the housing industry. the yellow line is housing contribution to gdp. you have to go way over here to notice i cannot put the line in at hero. housing has been a drag on the economy. maybe the fed cuts rates, we can see more people buying houses and more houses being built. that would add to gdp but it will be a while. vonnie: phenomenal chart. those charts were amazing. two aspects of the global economy we have not been able to see until now. -- the the real owners real winners were the viewers today. ali

gdp 2.1% in the second quarter. ,oining us is michael mckee bloomberg international economics and policydeeper into the headlines. the market reaction is prestandard. what were some of the standout for you? michael: the numbers very strong. we saw people buying an enormous number of durable goods. not sure whether was already for traders were all what but we -- all refrigerators were all what but we bought a lot of something. business spending contracted and that is something the fed has been worried about. business spending down .6%. residential investment, houses, we were buying durable goods but not sticking them in houses because housing went down 1.5%. a mixed picture in these numbers not particularly good for the overall economy going forward except the consumer. these numbers have higher-quality -- you do not have as much of an inventory affect this time? michael: a lot of inventories worked off did have a big impact on growth. the setup going forward is we are relying on the consumers. savings went up but mostly dividend and interest payments to the rich. they've revised all the

michael mckee is on the scene, and we welcome him now from washington. ple think it is going to be 25 basis points. what else are looking for? michael: is there anything less controversial than what they are going to do today? what we are looking for is what they're going to do next. the market is looking for a signal from jay powell that this isn't just one and done, that there is going to be at least one more rate cut and perhaps two. we will see how he would explain the need for that given the data in the united states. they will also look at the statement, and want to see if the language changes to also hint at future rate cuts. the other big question, what do they do about the balance sheet? they are set to stop the taper in september. do they move that up because tapering tightens a little bit? david: what is left of the data dependency we heard so much about? the difference in the language comes down to closely monitor, which is what we heard last time, as opposed to being patient the time before that. if you look at the numbers they had in front o

in washington, we have michael mckee, bloomberg's international correspondent. your take on this number, and does it change the case for the fed? michael: i think there's a very good chance it changes the case for the fed. this is sort of the mirror image of the may number, revised down by 3000. still a lousy month, but it wasn't that they were jobs lost in may. the there were jobs lost in may. there were just no jobs created. we saw jobs created in every category. retail the only one that suffered. he saw may as something as a fluke. it does not change the idea that , notgrowth is tepid picking up even though the economy seems to be strong enough to do that. job growth seems to be strong enough to do that so if you want to make in an place in argument, maybe that is there but the fed has had that issue and has not felt like it needed to cut rates to get wages higher. to make a case that the economy is suffering. , 172,000onth average jobs in the last three months. not much has changed this year. let's bring you into the conversation. the market is 24 when it com

. >> michael mckee on president trump raising pressure on the fed. p escalating his feud with congressman elijah cummings. will the fed make president trump happier this week? michael: they likely will but not because of the president. they are looking at economic conditions in the markets but not a donald trump's tweets. he put out a couple of more today. the you and china will further lower interest rates and pump money into their systems making it much easier for their manufacturing to sell products. with very low inflation, our fed does nothing and probably wi

. >> michael mckee on president trump raising pressure on the fed. president trump escalating his feud with congressman elijah cummings. will the fed make president trump happier this week? michael: they likely will but not because of the president. they are looking at economic conditions in the markets but not a donald trump's tweets. he put out a couple of more today. the you and china will further lower interest rates and pump money into their systems making it much easier for their manufacturing to sell products. with very low inflation, our fed does nothing and probably will do little by comparison. he followed that up with another tweet saying the fed has made all of the wrong moves, a small rate cut is not enough but we will win anyway. the fed raised way too early, way too much. the fed is likely to cut rates but if it is only 25 basis be, as it is likely to the president said, too small for him but enough to satisfy the markets. sheryl: the president continues to attack central banks in europe, talking about the weakness of the euro. it's put

on the brief today, michael mckee on federal policy -- that is totally wrong. will be talking about turkey. maria tadeo on what comes next, and from washington, kevin cirilli -- that's not right. sahil kapur on joe biden. bastak.ali damien, let's start with you. erdogan replace the central bank governor with his deputy governor. it undermines the institutional efficacy of the central bank. what we have is the situation where credibility was an issue in turkey and becoming even more so in light of the current move. guy: at the same time, is president erdogan wrong?

on the brief today, michael mckee in new york on the fed debate or talking about how deeply to cut rates anna edgers and dan leave in milan on the possibility of a snap election in italy. if we are vice -- going to cut, we have to cut big an early. are they trying to send us a message? michael: they said they were under -- they were misunderstood. he was giving an academic speech but he did not make that clear to the audience and they let -- they read the headlines as i am calling for 50 basis points of cuts. here is what he had to say. when you only have so much stimulus at your disposal, it pays to act quickly to lower

michael mckee. >> watching very carefully what is happening and we are looking very much on upside riskownside risk. there a little more tilted to the downside. >> the market has priced in a 100% chance of a rate cut. can you go against the markets? >> we will have a lot of data with cpi and pce inflation retail sales, consumer spending , and markets are smart, so if the data is up with a different outcome, the markets will adjust. >> markets are basically priced to reaction of a recession almost? >> i feel pretty good about the economy. on the consumer side, spending is great to read on the labor side, markets are still quite tight and those are very healthy signs. what the chairman mentioned yesterday and a concern on my mind is business confidence and investment. the first quarter was fine and the second quarter indicators are less strong, so i have been out with my contacts in my district asking questions about how you feel for business investment? see people laying folks off, cutting back existing plans, but they are also not leading in the way the numbers have shown. >> you have a

in his first since joining the presidentmond's fed spoke exclusively with bloomberg's michael mckee.re watching very carefully what is happening with that data and looking very much at the upside risk and downside risk. at this point, they are a little more tilted to the downside. >> the market has priced in a 100% chance of a rate cut. and you go against the markets? >> we have a lot of time left before the meeting. he will see what happens. retail sales, we will get consumer spending. i am the markets will adjust. michael: what is your view of the economy? i feel pretty good about the economy. spendingnsumer side, is great, on the labor side, markets are still quite tight. healthy signs in our economy. what the chairman mentioned yesterday is is is confidence and business investment. the first quarter was fine and the indicators are less strong, . so i have been out with my contacts asking questions about, how do you feel about the climate for business investment? i would say that folks haven't pulled back yet, i don't see folks laying people off, cutting back existing plans, but t

on the brief today, michael mckee on the trade truce.ls, maria tadeo on the european union continuing to struggle for successors, and sophie kamaruddin from hong kong on the drama playing out with protesters occupying the legislative council building. we had our own trauma playing out on saturday with president trump and president xi meeting. what came out of it? michael: what wall street expected. president trump and president xi said we have agreed to continue negotiating. no details on a time frame, just the idea that they will talk again was good enough for wall street. emphasized that is part of the agreement he will allow wall way to buy parts from u.s. manufacturers. he put it is a good thing for american companies, but a lot of

. >> michael mckee from bloomberg television and radio, there is a perception out there that perhaps the fed is a hammer in search of a nail because the latest consumer spending reports as you suggested do not show any kind of demand problem in the u.s. when you look at mortgage rates, auto lending rates, they have all come down. problemg exactly what lower capital costs will solve. chair powell: you are absolutely right, the performance of the economy has been reasonably good. the position of the economy is as close to our objectives as it has been in a long time. the outlook is also good. what we have been monitoring since the beginning of the year is effectively downside risks to that outlook from weakening global growth, and we see that everywhere, weak manufacturing, now particularly in the u.k. and china, and we have trade policy development which at times have been disruptive. and inflation running below target. we see those as threats to what is clearly a favorable outlook and we see this action is designed to support that and keep the outlook favorable. it is a continuation

here to take us through what to watch for is our economics and policy correspondent michael mckee.ep talking about the strength of the labor market. this testimony will be very important. report last labor week gave opportunity for the fed to back up a little bit, but jay powell will not do that. he will talk about trade uncertainty holding back business investment, and that is slowing the u.s. economy. overall, the economy is in a good place, but there are storm clouds on the horizon they have to keep an eye out for. don't expect him to promise a rate cut. expect him to use language that would not disabuse wall street of thinking there would be a rate cut. he doesn't want to disturb the markets but also does not want to lock the fed in either. jon: it sounds like having a very clear message is what the markets want. is that what is anticipated from this testimony? mike: they would like it tied up in a bow, but they will not get that. probably something akin to what they used in their october meeting, saying that they would act as appropriate to preserve the economic expansion. if

on the brief today, michael mckee on federal policy -- that is totally wrong. damian sassower will be talking about turkey. maria tadeo on what comes next, and from washington, kevin cirilli -- that's not right. sahil kapur on joe biden. bastak.ali damien, let's start with you. erdogan replace the central bank governor with his deputy governor. it undermines the institutional efficacy of the central bank. what we have is the situation where credibility was an issue in turkey and becoming even more so in light of the current move. guy: at the same time, is president erdogan wrong? we will show you a chart that shows you the real yield. damian: this is the thing we get to. this points to a bigger divide within the party. what might be important to foreign creditors and might be important to the president erd ogan and turkey might be different things. despite you have real yields, if the currency does not cooperate they will not be able to ease policy. david: how to the markets react? off,n: equities have sold the curve inverts. the turkish are the most inverted o

first television interview since joining the bank, richmond's fed president spoke exclusively with michael mckee we are watching very carefully what is happening in that data. and we are looking very much at upside risk and downside risk. at this point, they are a little more tilted to the downside. michael: the market has priced in a pretty much 100% chance of a rate cut. do you go against the markets? >> we have a lot of time left before the meeting. we will see what happens. we will have a lot of data that comes in. we'll get retail sales, we will get consumer spending. and markets are smart. if the data ends up with a different kind of outcome, the markets, i am sure, will adjust. michael: what is your view of the economy? markets have priced a fed reaction to almost a recession. tom: i actually still feel pretty good about the economy. on the consumer side, spending is great, on the labor side, markets are still quite tight. those are very healthy signs in our economy. what the chairman mentioned yesterday and what clearly is a concern on my mind is business confidence and business investme

joining us from washington is michael mckee. missing the tickertape parade here, but there's lots of talk in washington this morning, and there could be some fireworks from some of the committee members. what are we anticipating they will grill chair powell about? michael: it is an interesting case because there's not going to be a lot of disagreement on capitol hill with the stance the fed is taking. members of congress have to run for reelection in 2020, so they are not going to be upset but the idea the fed is cutting rates to boost the economy ahead of that. we don't see a partisan divide there. we may see it come in talk of the president and his efforts to politicize the fed, so it will be interesting to see what jerome powell says about that. with reporters, he's been very circumspect, saying that he has a four-year term and he intends to serve it. we have new regulations for bank capital, whether they are enough , whether the bank is cutting back too much. we may see more of that in the senate tomorrow. in terms of moneta

. >> michael mckee from bloomberg television and radio. there is a perception out there perhaps this case the fed is something of a hammer in search after nail because the latest consumer spending report as you suggested don't show any kind of demand problem in the u.s. when you look at mortgage rates, auto lending rates, they have all come down. and so, wondering exactly what problem lower capital costs will solve? >> so, you're absolutely right. the, the performance of the economy has been reasonably good. the position of the economy is as close to our objectives as it has been in a long time. the outlook is also good. what we've been monitoring since the beginning of the year is effectively downside risks to the outlook from weakening global growth. we see that everywhere, weak manufacturing, weak global growth now particularly in the european union and china. in addition we see trade policy developments which at times have been disruptive, then have been less so also inflation running below target. so we see those as threats to what is

michael mckee is here to take us through it. ael: wednesday the chairman sits down before the house and financial services committee -- before the house financial services committee. for the last year, the president has been attacking the fed chair on twitter very often for raising interest rates, even though the rest of the fed is raising rates along with jay powell. a lot of people think this is because president wants a straw man to attack if the economy doesn't look good on election day. on december 24, 2018, donald trump tweeted, "the only problem our economy has is the fed. they don't have a feel for the market. they don't understand necessary trade wars were strong dollars or even democrat shutdowns for more borders." here's a chart that shows what's been happening with the economy if you talk to ceos. they stopped investing because of trade wars and uncertainty. you can see how ceo confidence and they since investment in blue have tracked each other very well. as companies got more worried about what would happen, they st

we are joined by sarah ponczek and michael mckee. i want to start with earnings. sarah, i thought earnings were not supposed to be good. they were supposed to be diving down for the back half because expectations were too high, but we are not seeing that from some companies? -- but we are not seeing that from some companies. sarah: every time a earnings season comes around, we see companies guide estimates lower, we hear they might not be as great, and we see them come in and beat. that has absolutely been the case. about 3/4 of companies have been beating earnings. the picture looks good. we are no longer supposed to see an earnings recession. however, when it comes to guidance for the back half, we are seeing estimates for the third quarter come down pretty significantly, and estimates for the fourth quarter come down a little bit, too. when you look at full-year numbers, they are still pretty steady. you have third quarter and fourth-quarter estimates coming down, balancing each other out. there is still very much a risk because we are expecting growth above 5%

bloomberg's michael mckee and rachel evans. you can find all the charts we use on gtv . coming up, u.s. futures climbing. katie nixon, northern trust management cio will join us. and earnings came out for schlumberger. stocks rallied now 1%. peuch will be ceo. it appears they are moving now -- many expected it to be in the back half of the year. the company also cutting capex. g #btv -- this is bloomberg. ♪ viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." here is your bloomberg business flash. a big transaction in the beer industry, an australian company selling to japan's asahi. the proceeds will be used to pay down debt. stillev says it may revive its asian subsidiary. u.s. regulators are investigating a cryptocurrency form in asia that lets people make big bets with little money down. the investigation is focused on whether it broke rules by allowing americans to trade on the platform. up bbc and itv are teaming to face netflix. the service is called britbox, costing $7.50 a month, lower than what netflix charges for its standard service. alix: i love britbox. david: i am in fo

when michael mckee estimate -- asked him about this, jay was may be struggling a bit to answer.u with something jim bullard told me last month when i asked him how about what a rate cut would do for inflation. he said at least it will show with the fed is serious about moving inflation higher. he was in the camp that wanted to cut. in terms of future rate cuts, september rate hike not ruled -- not ruled in, not ruled out. intrade talks will resume september after meetings and shanghai ended with no progress. forced sides discussed technology transfer, ip rights, and nontariff carriers. the white house issued a statement saying the talks were constructive, and that washington will host the next round. the people's daily newspaper rejected president trump's early description of "ripoff china." data compiled by bloomberg indicates bad earnings in china, with more than 1600 companies offering guidance, 40% for the fallen earnings from every year ago, the most since 2016 in terms of firms reporting smaller lot profit, deeper losses, or a swing into a loss. this is after domestic outp

senate banking committee. 10:00, federal reserve chairman of richmond barkin will sit down with michael mckeeill sell billion in three-year notes, and fed chair jay powell made it clear he is going to cut rates. of that you to a slowing economy globally and no signs of overheating in the job market. chair powell: grows around the world have disappointed. trade tensions and concerns about global growth. concerns over global growth. slower growth in the global economy. weakness in the global economy will continue to affect the u.s. economy. alix: tuning is now are burns mckinney, allianz global andstors portfolio manager, lisa erickson, u.s. bank wealth management head of traditional investments. i thought the mandate for the fed was stable employment and inflation, not global risk. what was your biggest take away yesterday? lisa: i think the biggest take away in terms of, as you point out, there mandate, is they are really trying to do what they can to support the economy. certainly while we are seeing some decent signs still from the u.s. in terms of growth, there are still on a bigger pictur

alix: we are joined by michael mckee and luke kawa. here is the facebook cfo on the call yesterday. >> we continue to expect that our constant currency revenue growth rates will increase sequentially going forward. we also expect pronounced deceleration into the quarter and 2020, partially driven by uncertainties. alix: luke, explain. intentionink the really cause them to reverse to be read at one point, but the point remains that all of these investigations, they don't have any material effect on facebook's business yet. it is still exceeding topline estimates. the revenue deceleration is better than deceleration going on everywhere else. people keep walking back to these bigger growth names. david: fair enough, but this is the first time i heard facebook saying this could affect business going forward. some of these changes could affect the way we read the money. michael: you get a rare bipartisan agreement in washington about the evils of the big tech companies right now. if republicans, who normally keep hands off of business, are

out of the unique regional bank, the richmond fed, the new guy on the block of richmond with our michael mckeeberg "surveillance." $5 billion to to settle an investigation into an opioid addition -- addiction treatment. it has still been spun off. reckittors arguing -- denying wrongdoing. the ceo of no region air shuttle is calling it quits. -- norwegian air shuttle is calling it quits, indicating he wanted to step down after leading the restructuring. we spoke with him last month. >> at least five years more time. i would much rather like to be in the back room, like in an advisory role. if you are ceo, you really have to work 24/7. sincea: he has been ceo 2002. bloomberg learning deutsche bank shut down the accounts of jeffrey epstein as federal authorities were preparing to charge him with operating a sex trafficking ring. it is unclear how much money he had. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine: thank you so much. germany's biggest bank facing more trouble. deutsche bank is likely to face an investigation from the u.s. justice department as part of the 1mdb fund. they are looking

michael mckee on facebook saying that, it is clear that republicans do not care that russia interferedhe election i do not care it is happening again and that the president will clearly welcome it again by his own admission. host: victor, casper, wyoming, democrat. caller: good morning. i have been watching this for some time. your show this morning and the whole donald trump mess from the beginning. i noticed the republicans, particularly some of your callers, are cherry picking and saying no collusion. they knew the russians were helping them and they welcomed it, they just did not coordinate with them. that is the only difference. the other thing is, one lady said after all the money was spent, nothing came of it. failing to see all of the indictments, all of the people charged, all the people in trouble for their role in this. comment, youto a are defined by the people you keep around you. the man is as dirty as they come and it bothers me the republicans are ok with it because they did not like obama and everything donald trump does is anti-obama. it is not patriotic. i am really

mike mckee has an overview for us. michaelriends were with us, i show this chart and it showed a problem in the trucking and freight industry. as the fed gets ready to make a decision on interest rates, the picture is more mixed. i put in airline freight in yellow, but we do not have as much updated data. carshite line is railroad and the blue line's overall freight shipments. as you can see, a mixed picture. railroads were down. they are back up. are we going to see a turnaround in that as well? that is a big part of the calculation the fed has to make, especially as they tried to decide whether or not a rate cut will boost the economy. one of the arguments jay powell has made is that keeping rates low helps the marginal sectors of the economy, helps people who are less educated. you might see that in trucking wages. trucking wages have not kept up with overall average hourly earnings. they've been increasing, but trucking wages have not moved up as fast as overall wages have been going. the yellow line. the blue line is the