liz: what john layfield as right now. bp is on the shopping list. before i get back to john i ask luke at nymex, about energy names and quality names that might be down for the count? yeah, liz -- sorry. >> on oil stuff it is so difficult right now obviously there is plenty of oil in the world. global growth will go down just because of these tariffs. any ceo is not making any new investments whether in retail or industrials, right? they want to see how this shakes out. this gives them an excuse to sit on their hands. i don't know, the oil names, a lot of them are cash-rich. they pay dividend. right now i think you have to wait. liz: john layfield, the last time you were here something stuck out in my mind. you said what the president was doing with the trade war was self-sabotage. today we certainly don't like it if we're long the market. everybody with a 401(k) or pension or 529 plan is hurting at the moment. how do you see this playing out? >> i think it will be a long affair. i tout it would be a long affair for quite some time. the president and

john layfield, do you buy that? >> i don't, no. i think the chinese are playing chess and president trump is playing golf. i don't think it's the same game. the chinese are killing the clock. i don't think we're any closer than last september. we hear that we're having trade deals imminent and the chinese have to make this trade deal. i don't think we're any closer than a year ago. i think the chinese are preparing for a long, long fight with this. our economy is good. we can wait it out as well, which doesn't portend to an easy decision off ramp for this trade war. >> neil: larry, i'm wondering with the chinese promising to retaliate, what are they going to do? what do you think? larry, can you hear me? >> well, neil, i'm jump in. the chinese will keep stimulating the economy. they already have. they're manipulating their currencies, cutting taxes, propping up their economy making our dollar extremely strong. that's causing our exports to be very expensive. they're manipulating their currency. here in the u.s., we don't do that. w

john lonski? connell: layfield was on. >> thank god you had john layfield on.onnell: one of the greats. >> you get all these millenials on. they don't know anything about the yield curve. the problem with the markets, when you have that type of flattening almost inverting, you have, you have on every algorithm goes out there, every trading signal signals recession. there you go, two and 10. that is nasty, isn't it? connell: right on the precipice. >> every trading algorithm signals sell. now, the question is, why? because it is, basically saying we're going to have a recession. connell: right. >> now why are we going to have a recession? if you listen to peter navarro, and cheerleaders in the media, there are one or two, he will say why because it is all fed. anybody with half a degree in logic would understand that the fed had something to do with it, yes, when they were tightening but they were tightening amid a slowdown basically created by the trade wars in this in, not just with china, but across the globe, that is slowing down business investment. connell

joining me on the panel jonathan hoenig, christina partsinevelos, john layfield. the president confirming reports he is eying a payroll tax cut but he says it has nothing to do with any recession fears. listen. president trump: i've been thinking about payroll taxes for a long time whether or not we do it now or not is, it's not being done because of recession, because we are legitimately, if we had a cut in interest rates by the fed, if they would do their job properly, and if they would do a meaningful cut, because they raise too fast you'd see growth like you've not seen ever in this country. david: so carol we've been hearing about a payroll tax cut since the original tax cuts were mentioned, about a year and a half ago. should we move forward on a payroll tax cut now? >> definitely not at this time. you have to remember what payroll taxes go to fund and that's social security, so unless you're going to redo all of the social security, which is already underfunded i don't think that's the right tool; however i do like the fact that the president is focused on

smith, christina partsinevelos, john layfield, and mr. steve forbes. sparking the sell off today, the two and ten-year treasury yield, their curve inverting for the first time today since 2007. i know it's a lot of gobbley goock but this move has been a flashing red light ahead of almost all the last recessions for the past 50 years. here's former federal reserve chair janet yellen in a fox business exclusive. listen. >> are we going into a recession >> so i think the answer is most likely no. i think that the u.s. economy has enough strength to avoid that, but the odds have clearly risen, and they are higher than i'm frankly comfortable with. david: steve forbes, do you agree? >> i think we should avoid a recession, david, but the key thing is not about inverted yield curves and stuff like that. it's about what happened on fox this morning, an interview with peter navarro who took a very very hard-line, undid the good feelings yesterday that we're back to the negotiating table, people fear this trade thing is going to drag out, hurting business invest

we have market watchers hal lambert here, john layfield here. john, that is perhaps the most puzzling. we've got record lows for global interest rates, going lower still, nothing from that decline so far. what do you make of that? >> i just make we're in such a global slowdown that these central banks are trying everything they possibly can and using up all the ammo in their gun. that to me is most worrying part, if you have a systemic, oil spike, in the middle east what might happen in the strait of hormuz, no way for the fed to counter that. we'll raise rates going into recession. that is bad things for feds to be facing. we have no shock absorber in the system right now. neil: alan, i'm wondering what do we do to counter this, what can be down to counter this? the macro picture of the u.s. economy likes buy and large sound than the rest of the world. we get anecdotal where walgreen would close 200 stores that was largely expected. sears, kmart, closing stores of their own, potentially dozens, could be over 100 we don't know. but is that signal

. >>> i want to bring in market watcher john layfield. arkets because of the trade tension with china and this possible tariff imposition on september 1st. do you think this speculation about martial law, is that a factor in the market as well? what do you think? >> i don't think it's necessarily a factor because i think it's going to be worked out and it's not going to have a market effect. it will have a geopolitical effect. i don't think what happened in tiananmen square is going to happen again. i don't think china necessarily can get away with that. they tried what they did with the muslim uighurs to go in and basically enforce martial law. they ended up putting about a million of these guys in detention camps. they're not going that far but they did send in the police first to try to suppress that revolt. it worked there. it's not working at hong kong. this is a real problem for president xi but i'm not sure how much influence that will have over what's happening with the market the next few days. stuart: okay. let me talk to you abo

john layfield is with us, fox news contributor. you were listening to the president.mments on china? is that why the market's down? >> i think it is, yeah. i don't think there's an off-ramp right now for president xi or president trump. i think they both backed themselves into a corner. i don't think china is going to give and i think president xi when he said what he's going to do and hasn't followed through, i don't think president trump is going to give any more either. i just think this is going to be a very long protracted trade war. stuart: but the president did say united states is the best place for your money. your comment on that? >> i completely agree. the world is falling apart right now. look at interest rates, negative in so many different countries. you look at what's going on with german manufacturing data, look what's going on in china. despite the trade war, their manufacturing slowdown, what's going on in emerging markets. the only real place to be right now is the united states and the united states stock market, especially with yields so low. the