smith, christian and the wall street global economy editor jon hilsenrath. great to see you guys.have a lot coming up. james carafano. mohamed on the economy and markets, former pennsylvania governor on 2020 race and policy director peter navarro joins us talking trade, markets and the fed, don't miss a moment of it, big 3 hours, markets have a firmer tone, mix trading dayiest, we are waiting on crucial speech this morning from federal reserve jay powell, the central bank chief addressing commentary policy and future rate cuts, we have jon hilsenrath to tell us what you're expecting, jon. jon: it'll be hard for powell to go on a limb, there's a lot of division within the fed itself. we talk about the pressure that powell is under from president trump. president trump wants him to cut rates, there's some he is attendance as we reported earlier this week about half of the regional bank presidents, one eager to move rates down at the last meeting, powell has to set the table carefully. >> you had exclusive and fantastic interview with yellen last week. do they talk in terms of what h

. ♪ >> hello, and welcome to "wall street journal" at large, i'm jon hilsenrath filling in for my colleaguegerry basic. in july the current expansion of the american economy became the longest recorded in american history. unemployment has reached record lows rarely seen in the past half century, but warning signs are flashing. stocks have become more volatile, yields on long-term treasury bonds are behaving the way they often do before recessions, and economists are marking up their estimates for the probability a downturn will happen in the next 12 months, right before another presidential election. the big worry is uncertainty about trade. the u.s. is threatening to ramp up tariffs on china, and it isn't clear when it will stop. corporate executives say the uncertainty is making them less inclined to make new investments until the coast clears. meantime, economies in the rest of the world are slowing. now, in times of trouble the federal reserve usually cuts interest rates to make it cheaper for businesses and households to borrow, invest and spend. the fed has started doing just that, b

. ♪ >> hello, and welcome to "wall street journal" at large, i'm jon hilsenrath filling in for my colleaguely the current expansion of the american economy became the longest recorded in american history. unemployment has reached record lows rarely seen in the past half century, but warning signs are flashing. stocks have become more volatile, yields on long-term treasury bonds are behaving the way they often do before recessions, and economists are marking up their estimates for the probability a downturn will happen in the

research and fox news contributor jessica and the wall street journal's global economic's editor jon hilsenrath also reporter. >> back to writing. dagen: love it, mean it. also on deck fox news senior strategic analyst jack keane on the hong kong protest former white house correspondent, red lobster ceo, restaurant industry and louisiana congressman whip steve scalise on the new immigration rules coming out of the white house and energy secretary rick perry. the president promoting turning natural gas into plastics, you don't want to miss any of those fine gentlemen. let's take a look at the market, futures pointing to low e open this morning, 86-point loss on dow futures, losses across the board after bruising week last week and bruising start of the week with dow shedding 390 points, goldman sachs issuing warning on trade, does not believe u.s. and china will reach deal before 2020 election, treasury yields tumbling in yesterday's selloff amid global worries, trade fears, you take a look, 1.3%, i said this yesterday, 1.3% is the record low on 10-year treasury, we are not far away, jon, your r

here to break it all down with me president tom bevin, jackie deangeles and jon hilsenrath. get my degree in journalism. >> jackie has a law degree. dagen: asking her for information, parking ticket i've got, thank you, we will get more from you guys in just a moment. former mcdonalds ceo ramsey, ramsey solutions craig hogan and stuart varney, you don't want to miss any of the guests coming up. u.s. china trade in focus, president trump after announcing new heightened tariffs late friday, yesterday at g7 he discussed what is on the table. >> china wants to make a deal, now whether or not we make a deal, has to be a great deal for us. you know, and i tell this to president xi who i really respect, i really do have great respect and i like him too, tough guy, i told him strongly, look, you're starting up here and you're making 500 billion a year and stealing our intellectual property, we are down on the floor, lower than the floor, 50/50, this has to be a deal that is better for us. if it's not better, let's not do business together. i don't want to do business. that's the way

. ♪ >> big program, joining us onset form congressman darrell issa along with jon hilsenrath and dagencdowell. good morning, dagen. thanks for joining us, everyone. >> great to be here. i'm looking forward to talk about the fed and joe biden in one breathe. maria: exactly. your reaction, markets, i guess -- jon: markets were very disappoint and happened to jay powell several times where he's not doveish as the market expected. everyone is talking how the stock market reacted, watch the dollar, the dollar is getting a lot stronger, that will be a political problem for jay powell, president trump does not like seeing the stronger dollar. maria: you're also going to see cut into earnings, multinationals who will be blaming the stronger dollar on weak guidance and weaker than expected performances. >> in a world with trade is unkern. >> we will -- uncertain. we will talk about that. >> remember when every president wanted a strong dollar, they wanted a strong dollar from reagan on. maria: they said they did. >> the president's economic adviser was always in favor of strong dollar. >> peopl

. ♪ >> big program, joining us onset form congressman darrell issa along with jon hilsenrath and dagen

show this morning, joining the conversation real clear politics, tom bevin and jackie deangeles, jon hilsenrathd,

research and fox news contributor jessica and the wall street journal's global economic's editor jon hilsenrath love it, mean it. also on deck fox news senior strategic analyst jack keane on the hong kong protest former white house correspondent, red lobster

dimartino booth, francis newton stacy and from "the wall street journal" global economics editor, jon hilsenrath. let me start with you. the meshkets slipped a little bit on this news. i think interesting thing, felt like more than just jay powell was saying mid-cycle adjustment. felt like something he was thinking about, preserving optionality. what do you glean from this so far? >> there are two important points about these minutes. first one he talked about in the report on the minutes there are divisions inside of the fed. the market was disappointed when powell didn't telegraph more rate cuts after they moved into july. the reason he didn't and the reason he couldn't because there against it. "the wall street journal," my colleague, nick timmer this beat reported earlier this week, five, six of the 12 regional fed bank presidents expressed some reservation to us about moving rates. so powell wasn't just fighting president trump on this. he is also fighting with his own officials about how to manage policy. that is one thing. the other thing i think is important to remember, this meeting hap

wall street economic editor jon hilsenrath, speaks to strong consumer, jon. >> it certainly does and very low unemployment, we have households that have been doing a lot of saving over the last couple of years compared to 2000's, we should expect consumer to do pretty well, i think what the market has been concerned about lately and why you saw such a big 3% drop yesterday was because there was concern about the business sector, our corporate profits, business profits under pressure, are companies going to continue to invest and most importantly continue to hire, that's the uncertainty on the horizon right now. dagen: you have been -- we talked about it earlier, you have been going through the commentary from ceo's and the like looking for their discussion about any potential recession and just one thing that i wanted to point out, wal-mart is extremely strong but cisco cut guidance for the quarter and it was in part related to business in china, but business in china, although, a small part of cisco's overall business, dropped and it's very important when we talk about the headlines

we will watching markets down near lows of the morning down 70 points jon hilsenrath before you go final> maria i i think you are spot-on in your report for the most part. all eyes are now on the trade front, and how the new round of tariffs is going to affect the economy second half of the year it looks like the economy slowed down a little bit, as a lot of people were predicting would happen, now there is a question of whether that slowdown deepens and becomes a little bit more impactful. >> we leave it there have a great weekend good to see you jon hilsenrath "the wall street journal," quick break then more on july jobs report right after this. stay with us. can i get some help. watch his head. ♪ i'm so happy. ♪ whatever they went through, they went through together. welcome guys. life well planned. see what a raymond james financial advisor can do for you. that's it. i'm calling kohler about their walk-in bath. nah. not gonna happen. my name is ken. how may i help you? hi, i'm calling about kohler's walk-in bath. excellent! happy to help. huh? hold one moment please... [ finger snaps

dagen: really quickly, kristin, jon hilsenrath had been talking about going through conference callsents from ceo's being asked about how row repairing for a recession, what are they saying of potential recession, yesterday gm and ford at a conference were talking about planning for a possible economic downturn, maybe ceo's are getting asked about it, but the more that people, regular folks hear the word recession, does that change their attitude about the economy? >> at the moment, voter groups, they feel personally, economically okay, they are not word about losing jobs tomorrow, something that they were worried about 10 years, it feels uncertain, fragile, a sense out there priced into a lot of the polling numbers that people -- i don't know that they're going to stay good with one tweet, with one event around the world, all of that could change. dagen: market selloff, jon, you we wanted to say something. >> let's not forget when we get lower interest rates, shorter-term interest rates almost guaranty longer-term interest rates and with that more refinancing activity, the month of

dagen: i want to bring something that jon hilsenrath has talked about several times this week, yesterday even monday, ceo's are sitting down in september to plan their budgets for the following year and if there's uncertainty, if they are unsure about the road ahead, how will that impact business investment which already fell in the second quarter, factory activity contracting in august in the united states and also hiring and so these are questions that you can't even answer at -- >> it's showing up in some of the numbers, if you look at revisions for s&p 500, they have been falling since september last year long before the trade dynamic started. $177 a year ago, now $10, we will be down year on year, part of the problem the market contraction that we are getting from good news, rising wages but i think ceo's are resetting expectations, i think the likelihood of trade deal is not going to happen before 2020. i think the calculus on president xi has been to push closer and closer to 2020, drag your feet on the key issues like ip theft, cybersecurity and state-run economy that continues t

dagen: after talking to jon hilsenrath, after interview with janet yellen, if president trump had leftjanet yellen as fed chief she might be more doveish, she might have been more aggressive to cut interest rates in this environment and probably wouldn't have hiked at the end of last year, she's very in touch with making sure the u.s. doesn't slow down too much. that's the irony in all this, he wanted his own fed chief and if he would have left the lady in place, you know what, we might be in better shape in terms of monetary policy here. >> well, i mean, first of all, the fed is independent body and needs to remain that way and the decisions fed are made shouldn't be made for political purposes, however, what the fed is responding the market unis your- uncertainty caused by global slowdown and economic growth and that's not helping what happened is driving the fed to do what the president wants them to do. dagen: wall street journal reporting today, great article by andrew and rebecca that while president trump reacts to economy development on twitter he has privately been assuring ad