in this fascinating book, robert shiller argues that what matters is the good story. economics can explain what state text dismissed and shows how viral shift in economic thinking reasonable real epidemics. and from the university of cambridge, a fascinating and important book, written and engaging style and good examples. that went out further ado, help me welcome robert james schiller value [applause] >> will thank you. i'm going to talk today about going viral. however, i think the idea of going viral is the bit older than you might think. and as we've god may be stronger with the internet but going viral and fake news, which company is it are actually old concepts. maybe i can ask, anyone here a classic scholar? do you translate fake news into latin. i don't expect anybody to know that. does anybody know this ? you are not old enough. [laughter] the latin world is rumor. it is the same meaning as today. these to be worried about rumors. they can make or break you. so it's not new. in my scope of history goes way back. i am interested in understanding economic even

we like to normalize earnings, ala robert shiller. on that basis we have seen our small-cap universe though from a in 2014,% p/e premium coincidentally when the taper started by the fed that year, all the way down to 10% to 15% -- i am sorry, they have gone from 840% pe premium to a 10% to 15% discount. that is a massive revaluation relative to the large-cap universe. premium blewhat pe up, if you will, in the first half of the decade when qe was in place. although the fed will deny it it is buying assets again. i think for the chance that you see some of that pe premium on small caps restored. so i think there is less relative risk even if we are in for a difficult period the next couple years because of that valuation discount. caroline: it is all relative. let's get a quick check on some earnings. fourth quarter loss per share $.28. fourth quarter revenue, $294 million. the estimate was $289 million. making an acquisition of an ai-related company, a voice chat. up .9%. this company has soared in terms of share prices year to date.

yale university professor robert shiller spoke with bloomberg about these numbers and the larger economyre not in a boom in terms of prices in real estate by any means. it is not driving like before the last recession. i prefer having the stable level of modest enthusiasm we have now. whether we will have a recession is a big if. according to my new book, narrative economics, it depends on how the narratives change and how our ideas change. that is hard to predict. abigail: what is the single most predictive narrative out there? single most prominent would have to be the impeachment hearings, the instability we see by the polarization in politics does diminish business somewhat. it has not impacted us that much. it is like we are preoccupied with the impeachment hearings and are postponing important business until a later date. it is quite possible we will make it through november 2020 without any recession. that would be good for trump. europe, an exclusive conversation with ireland's finance minister on bloomberg daybreak: americas to discuss the future of europe after brexit. he u.k.

this is the karl case, robert shiller housing index, and in red, adjusted for inflation.nning, stunning chart of what we used to know out here yeara return over 12% per in the boone years. down we go. what is so important is for one brief shining moment we got back to what used to be normal, and it has been a rollover with the real housing yield back down to 0%. francine, this is a huge part of the american psychology. francine: i just wanted to spend time on alibaba. this is thanks to hilary clark, who did this fantastic chart looking at hong kong shares trading at a slight premium to the implied intraday price. this is based on the atr's in the last close. you can see compared to what we are speaking, it is much better than expected. the u.s. and china have agreed to stay in touch to resolve remaining issues to get to a deal. it comes after a phone call this morning beijing time during which the vice premier and robert lighthizer and steven mnuchin discussed core concerns. bryce inined by geneva. what do we know that they can agree on? bryce: in this trade negotiation,