this week goldman sachs has a harsher prediction. they're saying negative 6% for the first quarter and negative 24% for the second quarter. if the united states actually goes through a contraction, negative 24% growth in the second quarter, what does that mean? what does that look like? >> we are looking at something that we've never seen before in record speed. mass unemployment at this stage. i mean these numbers are drastic. but businesses are grinding to a halt. you know i look around the world at how other countries are responding to this because every country basically in the world is going through the same things and, jake, they're cutting blank checks and they said they would backstop 80% of salaries and this is the spending and support required. congress needs to understand that we need a two to three-month economic financial

goldman goes for a 50 basis point cut this month. japan, the boj offered to buy $4.6 billion of sovereign debt. more, let's get to sophie kamaruddin. she is in hong kong. get me up to speed on the numbers, the liquidity, and the rhetoric. sophie: we have authorities under pressure to provide relief, given the number of cases around the world climbing. china, infections rising with total cases topping 80,000 as the economy in china looks set for a first quarter contraction. activity, shrinking to a record that isebruary and helping drive a rally in chinese stocks, the 300 jumping as much as 3.5%. won, strengthening above 1200, even as south korea climbed past 4200. shares under pressure as the country has confirmed its first two cases and the central bank governor of indonesia is holding a press briefing later. are building bets the rba will cut rates tuesday after the country reported its first fatality linked to the virus. in iran, infections have doubled. the who will be going to iran and infections are climbing in north africa and

goldman seeking 24%. bloomberg economics seeing 9%. consensus though is that it will be a painful recession. nejra: dani burger, thank you so much. holger schmieding is still with us. wall street is revising calls on a weekly basis. we were talking earlier and you do not think it will be as extreme as what goldman sachs is saying. we are still more than 50 basis points above the record low. 31 basis points. how quickly could we hit a fresh record low in the 10 year treasury yield? holger: with these economic forecast, we have to distinguish the numbers we will see in the months march through may and they will be atrocious. they could be in line with the worst numbers being put out. we simply do not know about the extent of lockdown. that is one thing. for the full year it will depend on how far the lockdowns can be eased. the more we prevent the spread of the virus now, the better the rebound could be from the atrocious second quarter in the quarter is. as for the 10 year yield, we have a struggle. on one hand, the economic logic is th

goldman also says to expect action from policy makers not just here in the u.s. but also canada, the united kingdom, australia, india and more. with me now for this hour is peter. the central bank theme has been a driving force behind supporting markets for the better part of, say, a decade now. why is it the coronavirus fears really did not respond to the idea the central banks could step in and help >> they realize a rate cut or two is not a vaccine and it's not going to address supply issues out of china. it's not going to make people get back onto a plane or get back into a casino it's not the anecdote to what ails us now. it's not a rate cut, which i know they'll do, but it's not going to help economic growth. maybe it will grease the wheels of the financial markets for a short period of time i'm more afraid they do this, the markets rally for a short period of time, give it all back and then these cuts are wasted >> it's interesting to put this move in perspective with what's happened over the course of the past, say, year, year and a half with regard to dr

that's dan goldman. you know dan goldman.a pit in our stomach when we learned late last week from dan goldman's twitter feed that he had a fever, a headache, and a negative flu test. he couldn't rule out coronavirus because nobody was giving him a coronavirus test. he kept tweeting his updates in pursuit of a coronavirus test, ultimately deciding that he could drive up to a location in connecticut at 4:45 in the morning to try to get a curbside test quite far from where he lives. we found out over the weekend that that test came back positive. there is good news, though. daniel goldman is going to be okay. he is at home. he's quarantined and resting, and he's well enough to take a little time to talk to us about what he's been through right now. dan goldman, thank you so much for being here. joining us by skype, it's great to see you. >> good to see you, rachel. thanks for having me. >> tell us how you're feeling and what your odyssey has been like in terms of how sick you've been. >> i'm feeling much better, almost back to n

if you have a look at goldman-s forecast, second quarter, terrible.ut the third quarter, they see a 19% rebound. they are clearly still looking at some kind of v, and you have the huge stimulus coming from japan, some stabilization of the data in china. why aren't we talking about it from that lens? michael: we are in a sense. we are talking about the possible rebounds, but we don't know about the psychology of consumers when this is over. if consumers pull back and are reluctant to start spending again because they are afraid of a second round, then this is going to be a u. but that chinese data was based on comparison to the previous month. in people's minds, they are going to look at what happened and be saying, maybe i don't want to spend right away. abi want to wait a while. at 19 -- maybe i want to wait a while. doesn't put you anywhere back to normal. most economists say we could be $1 trillion to $2 trillion lower in gdp by the end of this year then we otherwise would be. the economy is definitely going to slow, and it may not come back as fas

more doom and gloom from goldman sachs.ing these calls from estimates having to revise their forecast given the situation due to the outbreak of the coronavirus. nejra: thank you so much. sophie, a dire forecast using a combination of the fed model and the history of declines. are you looking at for your forecast? do you see the s&p 500 ending the year at 3500? buybacks inen using our model. earningshe implied recession since the peaking fed in 2020. we see 20% eps recession priced in, already more than the recession priced in. in the near term you could have more downside. medium-term, what we andseeing is recovery momentum by the end of the year. butef: you cannot help wonder, in an event where it does reach that level, whether the leaders of days past, the tech companies, are going to be the leaders of the charge forward. the same names that help drive momentum, or is there going to be rotation? >> it could be a rotation. me, being out of the growth component, into next month, that why equitieshat is versus u.s. tech. bu

sachs actually struck a deal to bail out goldman should a 2008 crisis repeat itself do you think we can expect anything about tax havens and tax avoidance in the budget given his past. i don't think you should hold up too many hopes of such a set of moves you're right he worked for goldman sachs for some years didn't distinguish himself in any way and then was involved in the hedge fund and investing in a number of american companies including private health companies which might be indicative of which way. the trade deals with the united states might go and with the privatization of our n.h.s. so there are a lot of worrying signs there but i think it's too early for us to rush to judgment there's nothing wrong with being being young and inexperienced i just worry that he won't have the gravitas and weight to with stand some rather shadowy people behind him you mention privatisation the doctors association union here says that not even one percent of doctors in a survey believe the n.h.s. is we'll prepared for a coronavirus if you were advising the chancellor today would you say tha

deutsche bank, 250 is their target goldman says zero earnings growth, somehow keeps its target of 3400. bank of america says 2880 to 2040 citibank says transitory shock, no recession, rebound coming in the second half. jp morgan says large but temporary and maintaining overweight for u.s. stocks kudlow, we will get through this within months. steph, who is right? >> targets are silly at this point. we don't know what the economic is -- >> but the targets reflect a view. >> understood. >> the view is -- it is overwhelmingly blip. these people, and rob and joe by the virtue of how he is buying thinks this is just going to be a blip. >> i do, too it could last, though, longer than expected. that's the reason why having a long term target by end of the year is silly. because you have no idea the economic impact, the earning impact we just don't know. we are not really going the see stabilization i don't think until you get enough tests in the system, which seems to be 4 million by the end of next week and then you are going get the real numbers then that's probably not until the following

a partial victory for goldman sachs in a 14 year battle on gender discrimination, a judge goldman cann almost 700 women suing the bank, claiming goldman was allowed to make biased pay decisions. goldman calling the claims meritless. that is the bloomberg business flash. i, jon ferro,and lisa abramowicz, paul sweeney, we are committed to speaking to true experts in the variola she dutch virology and vector allergy -- virology and vectorology of what we are dealing with. we are thrilled to get an update from steven riley. , it is an epicenter. , and all of ake sudden we speak of atlanta and new orleans. going back not in this 20th 16thry, but 17th and century studies, how do viruses spread? steven: it is difficult to be absolutely sure. what we are seeing in large countries like the u.s. is probably quite a few independent seeding --ents ing events and a slow build. it is becoming prominent in some cities before we get the same reports from others, probably due to aseeding and a slow build. tom: on youtube, there is a spectacular video on number file, which is three differential equatio

there is the goldman's call. james foley said last week. we drop 4.5%, the biggest since 1985. the dollar is falling over or will it research again? the recent strength in dollar has come from demand for that definitely supports the dollar higher. the demand for dollar has abated somewhat given all the support it has in terms of credit lines, supporting money markets. the urgency to buy dollar is gone. on the other hand, you have interest rates differentials between the u.s. and other markets gone away. right now, emergency cuts. we think dollar strength is probably -- and if we get renewed a dollar strength, will that mean another led lower in equities? marija veitmane, senior multi-asset strategist at state street. the european open is next. u.s. and european futures on the front foot. a lot of green on the screen. this is bloomberg. ♪ awesome internet. it's more than just fast. it keeps all your devices running smoothly. with built-in security that protects your kids... ...no matter what they're up to. it protects your info... ...and giv

goldman sachs forecasting in the the economy will shrink at an annualized rate of 34%.midyear jobless forecast from 9% to 15%. crude is wrapping up its worst quarter on record. of is down 65% since the end december. donald trump he is concerned and spoke to vladimir putin about the market share battle with saudi arabia. in the u.k., there is rising pressure to speed up coronavirus testing. 10,000 tests are being carried out every day according to officials, but the actual rate is 7000 per day. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much. worldwide, we had earlier the spanish headlines of real challenges in madrid and catalonia. coming up, we will look at retail america with oliver chen from cowan. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ morning, everyone, bloomberg "surveillance." thank you for being with us from your homes, tv out on the terminal. we greatly appreciate your attendance in this crisis. he charm of oliver che

goldman revising its midyear jobless to 15%.us outbreak in europe may be approaching a peak , according to the who. italy reported the smallest number of cases in two weeks and the lockdowns are starting to pay off. in the u.k., there is rising pressure on the government to speed up coronavirus testing. 10,000 tests are being carried out each day but the actual rate is about 7000. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. tom: it is an extraordinary early morning in america, very early, and the tents are outside mount sinai in new york city, thunderstruck by the statistics and the depths of this pandemic which spreads out across the nation. the spanish data was equally grim. we spoke with a government relations type from huawei and we got about seven nonanswers in a row. this is what we like to do best on surveillance. miranda carr joins us, fabulous on reading china and reading it within th

at goldman sachs, even a price war halt can't save oil from its huge glut.unprecedented collapse in oil demand. goldman seeing any agreement to freeze out or cut output will be too little, too late. bill ackman's fight against the market paying off. ackman bought $27 million worth of credit protections on several bond indexes as the likelihood of corporate default rose. investors, square capital management's ackman says the hedge fund generated $2.6 billion in proceeds. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: thanks so much. just to update you, federal reserve chairman jay powell just sat down for a live interview on nbc's "today show." he really tried to pass onto the american public that we will see a vigorous economic rebound once the coronavirus outbreak has passed area he described all of the action the central bank is taking, and's and mortgages and car loans are among the areas where the fed can step in. he also said the fed is not going to run out of ammunition in this fight. he really wanted to drive that point home as well. pretty unprecedente

nonetheless, big call coming out from goldman.erperformance to me in the u.s., with equity futures down about 2.5% versus europe, public comes down to stimulus. you get potential budget boe,lus out of the potentially more out of italy, while the u.s. doesn't have any specifics yet. if you can switch of the board, you can see what is going on. -- excusen in europe me, up in europe. selling in yields, still down here in the u.s.. the curve continues to flatten slightly. $20 billion in notes coming out today. crude off by another 3%. the price were getting deeper and hurting even more companies, as well as all of their debt. christine lagarde issued a warning this morning and told european leaders on a conference call tuesday that europe will see a scenario that will remind any of us -- remind many of us of the 2008 financial crisis. "failure to act boldly right now would risk your economies." does this feel like 2008? sarah: it didn't feel like 2008 to start with because this was more of an economic activity is going to slow down, y

i think that's a bit extreme and goldman morgan stanley have come out. recently was sort of less extreme but you know that there needs to be extreme policy to lean against that kind of contraction and we've also seen a contraction liquidity in the markets people don't realize this but quite a few of the corporate credit markets muni's those markets have been are frozen in some cases i don't see no bid but you know virtually no bid for certain securities and so that tells you that the fed really isn't doing their job we've had an exogamous non economic shock. and really this. it's what central banks of were invented for to lean against these type of things so i think they've been very slow to the punch. and i'm glad finally this morning that they have come out with such a policy i'll say one more thing i think that. you know we all know this policy is working not because the stock market stabilizes which hopefully will based on this plus the fiscal policy. but because the dollar should start to weaken if the dollar does not weaken even with all this polic

as you mentioned, kendis, goldman sachs came up with a number they estimate this week, $2.4 million. that's massive. a huge jump from the previous week. >> something after unprecedented meltdown, i need a glimmer of hope. tell me who is hiring? >> that's the good news. there's some companies that need a lot of people because they need to get the goods out, shipped, delivered to those staying at home. among those companies, amazon, d domi domino's, walmart and blue apron. those that don't want to cook a meal from scratch. they want a frozen meal and cook it as quickly as possible. >> amazon, hiring up to 100,000 people over the next few months. sabile marcellus, thanks so much. and ali velshi will have more on the massive stimulus package and if the companies deserve bailouts from taxpayers. >>> as cases spike in new jersey, the governor orders everyone to stay home. this as one of the testing sites was forced to close just minutes after opening. >> woman: what's our safelite story? we were on a camping trip... ...when our windshield got a chip. >> man: we drove to safelite autoglass

goldman sachs economists expect the fed to cut 50 basis points this month.lizabeth warren has called for fiscal stimulus and federal loans to businesses to mitigate the disruption and prevent any layoffs. let's get back to my guest, jeffrey halley, senior market analyst at oanda. head to theour goldman sachs idea that you see a 75 basis point cut in june. bank of america said 50 points to stem the panic. let me put another one to you. need anhink we intra-fed cut? an intra-fed meeting cut? well, if i was donald trump, rates should be as zero right now but i don't think we need an intra-meeting cut, either. i don't think the stress is in the financial system. there is no stress and the banking system. rate start flying a way to the top side. everyone is still lending to each other so the problem is not in the financial system. i think rate cuts will make everyone feel better and being a calming measure, but the real problem is what miss warren is there are liquidity crunches because of the fall over in aggregate demand and supply curves. that is where the str

that as analysts at goldman sachs are saying they believe over 2 million americans filed for unemployment last week. let's sdus now. julia chathly is here. hello to both of you. julia, you first. futures marking reeling with this failure to reach a deal. what dough know? >> it's sending a message. the markets are send issing a message to politicians they have to stop playing politics. in my mind, this isn't a stimulus package. it's an investment in survival. for the next two to three months while this economic shock goes on. we're fighting a a health crisis by creating an economic crisis telling businesses that they say they have to shut overnight. that's happening for small businesses. that's happening for medium sized businesses and large businesses. they are all afraid of going bankrupt. now at the heart of this is the workers that we're already seeing losing their jobs. we have to try to prevent that as much as possible. you made the point there's to time to lose. the problem with whaer seeing is the optics. i'm hearing a $2 trillion package. but it's the optics of giving an aggregate

goldman says there could be a 5% decline in growth.el: we have first quarter contracting nine point 2% annualized, and second quarter at a 3% annualized rate. so we do have back to back negative growth quarters in the first half. i think we should be thinking seriously about the risks here, which is to say if you really shut down activity in some of these sectors, when we look at gdp numbers, they could be pretty shockingly negative. and in some ways, we saw that overnight with some of the chinese numbers, which suggests perhaps double digit annualized decline in first-quarter growth. i think we do need to steel ourselves to what could be some pretty scary numbers coming up. alix: michael feroli of jp morgan, thank you so much for chatting with us today. coming up, jp morgan wealth clients get overwhelmed during the market rout. more on how banks are dealing with the virus in the fallout. if you have a bloomberg terminal, check out tv . you can watch us online, interact with us directly. go to tv under terminal. you can scroll

>> just think about it, goldman sachs expecting unemployment to be over 2 million. we find that out tomorrow. last week it was 200 thousands. hans, thank you. >>> i want to go global now. the world health organization has warned that the united states could soon become the epicenter for the coronavirus, and new york has been hit especially hard with the number of cases doubling every three days across the state. nbc's raheem is ellis in new york. what are officials telling you about how bad this could get. it's important for our audience to understand we're talking about a million square-foot facility being reorganized to help patients the same day the president is saying let's again this whole country up and running in two weeks. >> reporter: for officials here in new york city, which has been know at the time beco become the epicenter, they alarmed by that. the governor is concerned. now it won't be a showcase for cars and boat shows, but for 1,000 hospital beds that, as you mentioned, this will be transformed into a temporary hospital, not for the most severe cas

which is also a criminal activity you're stealing we say like lloyd blankfein lloyd blankfein and goldman sachs at the time say we needed to create liquidity for the markets which is false he's outright lying when he says that it's about it's about it's about larceny just stealing liquidity for the market and and so the that money that lloyd blankfein and goldman sachs are j.p. morgan steals it doesn't go into the productive economy doesn't go to building factories so we create our own medicine it goes into hamptons estates it goes into it goes into swiss chalet is so they're like this we're so smart we stole billions we bought a picasso it went up and all of our drug manufacturing in china made by slaves coronavirus it and they're like. we never saw it coming that's a lie we are need more liquidity we need to put more money that's also a lot. we're now going to retire take all wrong. a runaway any coward like blankfein or or you know or the head of disney or all these c.e.o.'s they're all frickin cowards running away after they've committed massive fraud for 2030 years just want to jump

a 160n hawken, putting price tag on goldman sachs down from two third -- $230.his is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm vonnie quinn. the fight against the coronavirus has put pharmaceutical companies at center stage. trade group pharmaceutical research represents the country's leading in -- leading research companies. its ceo and president joins us now from washington. supply chain disruptions that your members are experiencing right now, what are the worst ones? >> hi, great to be with you. actually, our company is being very vigilant and is in constant communication with the fda. we have not had major disruption in the supply chain and have been very focused on, as you know, developing a safe and effective vaccine and effective treatment for those already infected. vonnie: there's that and then there are the treatments being touted by the president. what are your member saying about the president's comments regarding experimental treatments? our members are focused on four key areas. they are focused on working with other companies on diagn

goldman sachs warns that the virus will take the u.k.f a recession as london based banks test backups. ♪ matt: worse than lehman.

banking sector with some major names like morgan stanley and goldman sach down. deutsche bank down across the board, lower interest rate, lower growth an environment of fear is not helpful at all for the banking sector all eyes on that ecb decision next week and whether they go for an interest rate cut which wouldn't be good for the banking sector either. switching to oil we have the second day of the opec meeting going on. a lot of expectations as to how much cuts they'll push through, recommending 1.5 million barrels a day in cuts. this is the picture for some of the oil majors you can see most of them are trading on the back foot not as negative as some of the other stocks we saw on expectations that perhaps opec would surprise and go for a deeper are a longer cut. that is something to keep an eye out for. >> i've been mentioning airlines let's talk about what is happening there. lufthansa is down 4.3% after they said they will be suspending over 7,000 flights. that is roughly 25% of the company's total capacity it blames cancellations on the waning command th

wenow that goldman is saying could see oil in the 20's. >> that is right. more and more banks and consultants are saying oil will fall into the 20's. the 20's,ls into saudi arabia is saying they will pump as much as they can. they will increase production. it could go up to 12 my am barrels a day, which is 9.7 million barrels a day. we have other producers like russia, iraq and everybody else saying they could increase production. that points to 4 million barrels a day of additional oil in the market, which will drive down prices. it is uncertain whether any of the producers can survive the $20 a barrel oil for the longer term. haidi: are there any beneficiaries to this? as look at china or india major importers of oil as benefiting as the chinese economy tries to get itself back up from the coronavirus. definitely, producers are going to be much more impacted than the oil buyers, which are the refineries. taking crude at a lower cost for the month of april and going forward. it also means the cost of fuels they per dose -- they produce are going to be down

goldman sachs they prices could do below $30 a barrel.have already seen that for my makes the bti, which is trading for $29 and change. dramatic follows the breakdown between opec and russia on how to manage the world supply. joining us now from dubai is the of the energy company on the phone. they key so much for your time this morning. what do you make of this drop? do we have further to fall? >> yes. ramped the saudi's have up production very aggressively and they have made it extremely bold cuts to their selling prices. just increasing production, but it is about pushing a lot of oil very quickly into markets that don't want it. are talking about the production, last month was below 10 million barrels a day, elders talk they may be going to 11 million. they could add easily a million and a half barrels a day to the market. bear in mind, the opec meeting last week, they were talking about cutting 1.5 million barrels per day. so that is the potential swing in the market supply of 3 million barrels a day. where we thought we were on thur

just to hammer home the urgency goldman sachs has estimated more than 2 million people have filed for unemployment claims just this week. if accurate, that wouldn't just be eight times higher than last week. it would be an all time record. in a sign of the times the irs tax deadline has been pushed back three months to july 15th. i want to bring in cnn business anchor julia chatterly. all of these predictions about lay-offs and another great depression, do we have any idea of the scope of this? >> i have to be honest with you here and great to be with you, without big spending from the government, there is a risk that some of these dire predictions become reality. as you were just hearing there, we are telling people to stay at home to fight the health crisis but it's creating an economic crisis, an economic black hole effectively where businesses have no customers and the problem here, the big problem is the majority of the employment in the united states is small and medium size enterprises. 27 million workers work for front line businesses -- bars, restaurants, tourism -- and those

the german down 4% the ftse 100 down 4% as well as the france cac goldman sachs upgrading the stock from buy to neutral down 70% year to date the fear is priced in and the long-term secular growth remains intact price target remains at $173 a share. boeing is under $92 a share right now, indicated lower by 3% to the coronavirus pandemic where the number of cases around the world has surged past 311,000, with at least 26,000 in the united states. this morning nearly one in three americans are on a strict stay at home order with ohio and louisiana the latest states to enact lockdowns. rahal solomon is back at hq including the latest on the virus relief bill being punted around the senate. good morning >> good morning, courtney. the senate last night failed to advance the massive coronavirus stimulus bill after democrats objected, denying their counterparts 60 votes needed to move forward the debate continues this morning, including the senate's possible phase three deal. speaking on fox news sunday, treasury secretary steven mnuchin said financing programs for businesses hurt by the corona

some of numbers are ugly goldman sachs looking for a 24% second quarter decline jpmorg jpmorgan, 14%. these are declines we have almost never seen in the post war period we'll have to figure out why they are optimistic than everybody else add it all up, we have a median of the economists there of a 12% decline. they still look for a rebound. you don't get all of it back in the third quarter. the median forecast look fs for 6.2% rebound it's almost certainly not right but it will give us an indication as time goes by and data comes in of how much of a decline this forecast. are we doing better or worse than we initially thought and is the rebound going to be stronger or weaker. that's why we're keeping track of this. >> the real debate is how quickly the economy will come back when it does come back or how different it's going to be for how long, right. >> people will act like something will happen like this again. economist vs a very quick answer to that which is the longer we are down, the longer and weaker we will come back. i think that's probably a good the quicker we come back, t

now goldman is saying 50 basis points on march 19. those expectations are changing rapidly.n does improve, those cuts get price up. at the moment those are the expectations. the reason why you're seeing treasury futures bid up, we will see yields falling with took to open and record levels in australia and in new zealand. shery: what are we expecting for the japan open, because we are seeing safe haven moves now at a three-week high? yen.: i was looking at the first thing i looked at when i woke up this morning. bit hong kong time, little of liquidity, dollar-yen went as low as 107. futures are pointing to a sharp decline at the open in tokyo. maybe 2.5%. shows you from last week, you're seeing deaths now, the price of protection in case the nikkei falls, below 19,000. that is the same story from last week and it looks like markets haven't come to grips with what is going to happen. shery: david ingles, our bloomberg markets anchor, thank you. the new york times reporting pete buttigieg will quit the presidential democratic race. majorhe first openly gay presidential candida

goldman sach, apple also taking a heavy toll especially by something like your cloud. it's a problem. but the ibm cloud is different. it's the most open and secure public cloud for business. it can manage all your apps and data from anywhere. so it can help take on anything, from rebooking flights, on the fly to restocking shelves on demand. without getting in your way. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ don't just plan to retire. plan to live. an annuity helps cover your essential monthly expenses, so you're free to live the life you want. find out how an annuity can give you lifetime income at protectedincome.org how you watch it does too. tv just keeps getting better. this is xfinity x1. featuring the emmy award-winning voice remote. streaming services without changing passwords and input. live sports - with real-time stats and scores. access to the most 4k content. and your movies and shows to go. the best tv experience is the best tv value. xfinity x1. simple. easy. awesome. xfinity. the future of awesome. >>> at least six states will close all schools affecting millions all public schools

looking right now i have goldman sachs down 5%.stanley and goldman sachs with 50 billion thr market values >> together they only add up to 100 billion. >> and morgan stanley is similar to a pure service business james cormen turned that place around look, david solman is trying to make goldman more of a etail bank not a lot of deals this is not a deal paradise right now. >> no. no i mean, capital markets activity is limited to investment grade at this point. and there are concerns about that including whether the rating agencies are going to send a lot of investment grade down to high yield and that's going to dislocate a lot you're not going to see a lot in terms of m&a you may see some restructuring there's concern about net interest margin and what it's going to look like and the basic business during what's going to be or is a recession and perhaps worse. no doubt the earnings power is down but it is still shocking, shocking to look at those numbers. the likes of which we haven't seen a market cap on goldman of $50 billion. i m

lynn goldman. dr. goldman, thank you very much for joining us, very much appreciate it.ransmission of the coronavirus? clarify some of this for us because it seems like a lot of back and forth on how long you can actually get this and how long it actually does live on surfaces? >> yes, this study was carried out by the national institute is an incredibly important addition to our understanding of how the virus is being spread. when we can appreciate that it is in aerosol in time and as well as a very long time that it stays on surfaces, even though each time you touch a surface, it's unlikely you transfer the virus to the surface, or if the virus is there, it's unlikely you pick it up. the more surfaces on which we have the virus, the more times that we're around people who are creating aerosols, even though they're in the air for a time, probably more likely we are to catch the virus. and one thing that's been difficult to understand is the fact that country after country, what we've learned is that the virus is being transmitted by people who don't believe that they ha

. >> actually goldman says it's gonna hit two and a quarter million next week. that's a lot. think of it, the peak was in 1982 from what i see backbend the search was 695,000. goldman says that was, with this coronavirus shut down, and california with a total state shut down, one of the largest employers across the entire country, that number will jump to two and a quarter million which is start. goldman just updated their latest predictions for the economy and the gdp read. they are looking for a contraction in the first quarte quarter, the first three months 6%. second-quarter contraction can get this this will shock you. minus 24% in the economy. stuart: let me repeat all this, goldman assange next thursday morning, make sure i'm right susan, next thursday morning at 8:30 a.m. we get the jobless claims numbers and they think it might be two and a quarter million. >> that's right. that would be the highest on record, the second-highest was from 1982, 695,000, but this is much, much higher than that. >> and april, may and june, second quarter, they think the ec

you get the call from goldman, flashforward, three days, it's up one 100%. you have the largest companies in the world with these unbelievable swings. it's breathtaking and it just goes to what ben just said, this is not your typical market. it is difficult to invest when you have a company like boeing swinging 20, 30% on a given day. >> now ben, you are a little cautious earlier in the year and the stock market indeed turned lower. i want to reach out and give you a virtual pat on the back for that, but i need to know what's can happen next with the stock market, and please, frame your answer in terms of absolute certainty. >> all right. this is the best i can do. the market goes through two stages whenever there's a bear market. there is first the worry that all my god, everything's going to blow up, we just had that. after that we try to figure out what the fundamental impact is going to be. which of the stocks are going to be able to make it through, how big the revenue hits will be, all these things that right now we just can't know. so there's going to

so how does goldman do this? what are other economists doing?hey put together among other things a consumer activity impact index they're looking at, railroad loadings and transportation and hotels and sporting events and you can see they're tracking this for china and the u.s. together which doesn't give you the greatest outlook here, because it shows the steep drop here in the u.s., very much mirroring the steep drop in china, and you can see that long, slow road back over at least a two or three-month period for china the question is whether we can avoid that really l-looking rebound and come up with more of a "v." another thing, td securities looking at city mapper data and tracking mobility across six u.s. states. you can see it's crashed down and it remains relatively flat why do we look at this it's not surprising, the reason we look at it is because we want to see any early signs we can find of a pick-up in that mobility this right now is probably a good sign, because we're watching for containment of the virus, this decline in mobility