provided the greenspan put they've been demanding ever since he did that in 1907 then we've always had worse and worse and worse and it's grown and grown and grown and that's part of why the derivatives bubble has gone but now that the people know this is the moment where it has to end because it's inevitable. yes it is it's inevitable it's like a cycle of the planets or the seasons or the tide or the presence of gravity this is all was without without doubt and forever more recurring for mom and mom were paper money collapses and we go back to some kind of gold slash bitcoin standard so i want to show you the 10 year silver chart because of course report has covered silver for 10 years and you know here we were covering it back here and then it went up to $50.00 and a lot of that had to do with the crash if you want to buy silver campaign they were accumulating silver all the way down and then even more during this 6 year base there that is remarkable because i couldn't find a 20 year chart but if you see the 20 year chart it's down here so this is still that's that that was the 2nd l

quantitative easing in 15 minutes and nobody know the difference is just a temporary measure around greenspan thought it was later after he retired repudiated his entire career and mentioned that his thought about the economy we're all completely wrong about we know that it can't possibly taper opposed it cannot possibly taper a ponzi scheme gold is going to $3005.00. 100. we told you here 1st and the most because we're the best of course it's the dollar it's all the fear out balling against gold gold is just a real thing that has had value for 5000 years and again another thing that we've pointed out is so much money printing so little velocity and you've seen the money printing just go this is it going but it wouldn't like it's always been pretty high but now it's gone exponential this is the sort of hyper inflationary moment i guess if you look at the chart the red line has shown that the money velocity is collapse so all those central bankers christine legarde you know jay powell all they can do is give money to the banks right to the member rests they actually vomit money either by vomit

so in 1989 if alan greenspan showed up on the hill is that all horses are really hand grenades then peoplewould just say we really have to stop writing all these forces. they would have believed him. did you notice a difference? talking about this for a long time did you notice a difference in the way you are treated by the folks on the hill does that have any sort of change in the way those ideas resonate. >> no i don't think they did. talk about it a little bit in the book with a certain degree of surprise when i shut up and with deficit hawks and to be more apologetic and they also wanted to see them balanced this is all that they were accustomed to and then i show up so i coined that phrase and i remember that. >> and it's fantastic. >> and people were taken aback and so it took some getting used to so over a period of time to be taken more seriously but it wouldn't happen and that span of time that i was there. >> has anybody asked any questions at? >> you have a chance to get to all of them but i will read the one to have the most votes. and then on the social security trust fund whi

said, suggesting that you would have a greenspan put. the boom raged on and people said valuations don't matter then we end upped with a dot-com bust and the recession of 2001 it is a lag of when you perceive it to be valued and the time when stocks actually take a hit. but the s&p 500 anywhere from 25 in future earnings, even the market cannot support it for too long >> both of you are about this period being analogous to the 1990s, but it seems like you're ov overall negative on the economy. >> kelly, it's so interesting the way most of the media spins the current information. so, for example, i'm from the state of washington, and then i also spend a lot of time and now have a headquarters in phoenix, arizona, so i'm watching both of those. state of washington was a hot spot originally and has had an uptick lately but nothing spectacular compared to before and arizona kind of became a hot spot and florida, california and texas. well, in florida, the governor just came out and said the average person being tested positive is 33 years ol

so we started it as an commission of alan greenspan in 1983 and started building of this massive trustfund. >> i could make though whole problem go away with one sentence amendment to that act is just about grantee congress the legal authority to make benefit payments regardless of the balance in the fund. >> okay. next question. you talked about it a little bit that had you think talking about the pp loans and covert release and approaching the current economic situation? >> he would agree with the amount of money spent and agree with everything stephanie has said about deficit. and about the conditions placed on that money. to the point that stephanie made earlier with the general theory to unlock this the ability to tackle directly as a way to go better but to say this is a lot of money for the richest people in the country and not a lot for everybody else. this is a more deeper and philosophical question but work versus welfare he didn't want people to have to work their whole lives. he had a utopian view for we all have 15 hour work weeks doing art and writing poetry. people take

so we started as a consequence of alan greenspan and his commission in 1983 and writing trust funds, locking up digital dollars called trust funds and if we have enough spreadsheet industries and enough dollars locked in place we can release dollars in the future when we need to make benefit payments and mmt points out the insanity of this and the proposition that the government needs to lock up currency in digital form in order to be able to spend its own currency in the future. what i argue in that chapter is that there's a really quick way, i could do it with a single sentence amendment to the social security act of 1935, i could make the whole problem, quote, unquote, go away with a one sentence's amendment to that act. it's just about granting congress the legal authority to make benefit payments regardless of the balance in the trust fund. >> okay. next question. you kind of talked about it a little bit. how do you think king would have react today congress' action to covid release, ie, ppp loans, how do you think he would have approached our current economic situation? >> not

disabled is if there's enough money available to do that so we started as a consequence of alan greenspan and his commission in 1983 by building up this massivetrust fund . blocking a digital dollars on a spreadsheet called the trust fund and say if we just have to not spreadsheet entries and there are enough dollars locked in place, then we can release those dollars in the future when we need to make the best payments so mmp points out the insanity of this and the proposition that the government needs to lock up its own currency in digital form. in order to be able to spend its own currency in the future so what i argue in that chapter is that there's a really quick way icould do it with a single sentence amendment to the social security . i could make the whole problem away with a one sentence amendment to that act. it's just about granting congress the legal authority to make benefit payments regardless of the balance in the trust fund . >> okay. the next question, you kind of talk about it a little bit it's the person asked how do you think he would have reacted to premises actions wi

kind of made it more clear the antecedents got back to the reagan years and the federal reserve's greenspan put all the deregulation and basically wiping away the security back to 33 and 34 that cleaned up the mass of the speculative bubble of the 1920 so we're back kind of into almost a replay of all the excesses that occurred at that time the robin hood trading generation is out there on that app trading up a frenzy and they're buying stock in bankrupt companies with their with their p.p.p. money and their and their universal basic and come money they're buying hertz and j.c. penney and whiting petroleum and mall operators c.b.l. these are companies that are going bankrupt and they're attracting a lot of training on behalf of a robin hood app traders tell me what's going on here. there's a lot i think that there's a couple different ways to look at it one is the question of does this actually have a role in markets and if you asked you know wall street professionals a few months ago whether this was a real force they would kind of dismiss it right there blowing it off i think that the ton

he also called alan greenspan his hero. as want this they start to tighten the rains -- the reins. cloud whendarkening it comes to covid-19. this weekend alone really highlighted that when we look at the u.s., in florida they broke a record. there is a warning that the shadow, aasting a worrying reminder that the pandemic is still in control. bob mcnally says he sees oil demand globally rebounding. isis hopeful that the risk certainly to the downside. ok, we will go to you for the news conference. annmarie hordern somewhere in europe. is looking into that. the question i ask myself is -- the delicate balance. that demolition and demand. it is folly to believe that you will ever get back to the 2019 revenue. put is the risk that they this oil back on the market and we get a tantrum? risk.i think it is a real centralhe analogy of banks in terms of trying to in managingclarity expectations of the marketplace with more transparency. i think you are also right, manus. a recovery in the stock markets and in various sector errors.

tom: alan greenspan scheduled to join mr. daco on this lunch. thist the lengths of unemployment. that 12 month trailing gdp look like, -4%, -$.07? -- -7%? gregory: we will see a lingering shortfall of economic output. we have seen sectors fall. sectors that are not nervous oriented have been restarted fast but have been aided. bywill not get as much aid congress and it is taking some time, so we will see declines in overall income and that will constrain consumer spending. i would not expect the economy to get back to the size of re-covid levels before 2021, and the labor market will take longer. francine: when do you see the employment market get back to in 2019.hat we saw gregory: it will take a couple of weeks at least. we have an environment where we have regained about 7 million jobs but we are still 15 million jobs in the whole -- hole and up to 2 million jobs, people claiming -- claiming unemployment benefits on a weekly benefit. we will see more permanent layoffs, permanent business closures, and the scars will be deep that will take time to be erased. francine: what does

europeans will say they created -- create it correctly, americans will say greenspan was right, we dot this way. u.s.,ualized gdp in the apple is in what, q. week -- apples and what, kiwi? apples and potatoes? >> you cannot compare the two. it is done on an annualized basis. you're scaling one up to the other. -36, according to a round 10% drop in the u.s. economy on an annualized asis, which is kind of comparable to what we are seeing out of germany. am: i am going to guess about see in thewhat we united states today. after that math exercise can but kit juckes is about ready to walk away from the camera. he joins us from socgen. i hope we did not embarrass ourselves. i want to talk about turkey. i brought it up for the last couple of days. we just had a seven print on the u.s.-dollar-there a. close is turkey to unraveling? kit: pretty close, i would say. the problem that turkey has is twofold. one is they have much less foreign reserve protection available than many other countries, so they don't have much ammunition left to help currency. the second is, with the credit stimulus tha

like to be seen as the alan greenspan of the market.rds into doing additional cuts is really just a houdini act to serve -- to soothe our nerves. may be alexander novak would argue with you on that. rememberbia -- let's that they are in this for the long haul. back in april they said were going to continue this sort of adjustment all the way through april 2022. so it is very important that these countries which have been ,een as a little bit hawkish russia being a little dovish on oil prices, critical for them to ci to eye on this. nejra: great to have you with us, thank you so much for joining. coming up, jp morgan reports record training results as the pandemic impacts looms over next quarter results. we talking u.s. bank earnings next. this is bloomberg. ♪ nejra: goldman sachs reports today. dani burger joins us with the details. >> we can expect goldman sachs today to have earnings much like jp morgan, thanks to the market volatility and volume, trading in underwriting profit should help offset some of the credit losses. of course i

i think that this is once again irrational exuberance, not to steal the words of greenspan. there's a clear disconnect between rationality and the types of valuations you are seeing in the equity markets hasally and now that shifted over into china and it is all being driven by the fact of what both of you indicated earlier on, the government is providing a free put. but nothing in life is free. there is a costs to everything. these costs are often not realized until well after a bubble forms and when those imbalances that created those bubbles disappear, you get very quick deflation of that bubble. alix: it seems that in relation to china it was the shadow banks that were in trouble, but china seems to have gotten that under control of it. there is a narrative that china is just coming back, like when you take a look at copper, it is still positive on the day. why isn't that the real narrative? ashwin: china, today, from a financial and banking perspective, has improved within the bubble that grows quickly, but 2014 to 2015 time, china is also a net exporter and depends, a

are we risking what alan greenspan called irrational exuberance?nn: it may be, but it's not clear. the jobless claim numbers are good news, but there are still 32 point 9 million people on some sort of unemployment benefits. that is 20% of the pre-covid labor force. why is the stock get high? is, the value of stocks versus the whole future of earnings. if you are optimistic about recovery, most of the future is fine. second, the interventions have pushed down the discount for stocks and spreads. third, the stock market is not the economy. it is dominated by large firms, some of which have market power. the market may have irrational exuberance, but it is nonobvious. even if the stock market is high, it doesn't mean the economy is fine. david: is it possible we will have a second wave on unemployment? we had united airlines say they will have to lay off 36,000 people today. we had boots say 34,000 people. the second half of the year companies are saying, how can we have this be sustainable over the long term? glenn: it is. economics, supply and dema

tom: i brought this up with chairman greenspan, and i was shown the greenspanian door. [laughter] jonathan: i imagine you were. equities down 34 on the us, off by a little more -- on the s&p, off by a little more than 1%. he has been a bull throughout this bull market, ben laidler. what does consolidation mean for you right now? plus after it, to be fair, but i would hope we get consolidation, and markets are essentially where they were at the beginning of june. i think bigger picture, we have been consolidating. i think that is a very healthy thing. this market has rallied 40%. it is not going to head to the moon. we are 23 times forward earnings already. allow earnings to recover here, or expectations to begin to recover, which i think is happening in second earnings i think we are very well supported with the growth recovery outlook where it is, and i think there are a number it ises of their, whether the fiscal stimulus out of congress, the stabilization we are seeing in virus cases, whatever it is. so broadly, i think that is healthy, but all of risk remains on the

put like the old greenspan put or the power put now. the e.c.b.o support the markets if there is a selloff. so that is the real challenge for them. politics, i think they have had an opportunity are the constitutional court ruling in germany redemonstrate that they will not be holden by governance in the eurozone or elsewhere. anna: thank you very much. stay with us. moyers from credit suisse. we'll talk about what is going on in the u.k. jobless claims fall for the first time in five months as the government's income support scheme keeps millions in work. is there more to come in the unemployment story in the u.k. and elsewhere? we'll discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: welcome back to the european market open. 10 minutes into thursday's trading session. down by .6%. some of the top corporate stories we focused on here at bloomberg. twitter shares fell in late trade after some had their accounts hacked. bill gates, elon musk and warren buffett. the address went to an apparent scam. they suddenly lost the ability to post new tweets. twit

i remember one alan greenspan issued those words. we are unhinged from reality. economy is slowing down. we are lurching in and out of covid. tech market makes new highs every day. that is a classic speculative bubble. lots of liquidity is buying its way into the story stocks. just -- if it is zoom or tesla or beyond meat -- whatever stock has a story, everyone is rushing into, that gets me worried. >> what does that mean for the retail investor? we have done a lot of work on the mom-and-pop investors. are you concerned they may get burnt here at some point? mike: this reminds me a lot of the cryptocurrency market in 2017 where we had this crazy rally when bitcoin went from 8000 to 20,000. lots of people bought in and it collapsed. these stocks are not like crypto. they are real companies. they are getting valued ahead of what i think reality will be. i think there will be a moment. central-bank action or -- bighis case, we had a election coming up. joe biden -- he wins. let's assume he wins for a second because i think he will. corporate taxes are raised. high i

inwe recall that in 1998, the era of irrational exuberance, according to alan greenspan, the rally wentor two more years. thatature of bubbles are they go along and they are hard to end up -- they are hard to predict how they end, but ultimately, there's probably money to be made in the stock market. returns are better off in high yield corporate bonds. >> you just -- scarlet: you just wrapped up a meeting with the new york federal reserve. if we can continue seeing stocks elevate for the next two years potentially, how comfortable is the central bank with the optimism reflected in the stock market versus what is happening in the real economy? scott: the fed is typically very tightlipped in these conversations. they want to understand it. sure whether they think of it as a bubble or not a bubble but one of the comments that was made to me that i thought was very interesting is how will we know if this is a bubble? the answer is after the stock market crashes. not to say -- that is not to say the stock market will crash, but if equity valuations remain higher or go higher, and then we ge

the late 1990's. 1998, thell that in era of irrational exuberance, according to then-chairman alan greenspanore years. the nature of bubbles are is that they go along and are hard to predict how they end. ultimately there is probably money to be made in the stock market that i think risk-adjusted returns are better off than high-yield and corporate bonds. haslinda: you just wrapped up a meeting with the new york federal observed -- federal. if we continue to see stocks elevate, how comfortable is the central bank with optimism reflected in the stock market versus the real economy? >> the fed is very tightlipped in these conversations. i think they want to understand it. i don't think they are sure whether to think of it as a bubble or not a bubble. one of the comments made at the meeting i thought was very interesting is, how will we know if this is a bubble? the answer is after the stock market crashes. the's not to say it implies stock market will crash, but its equity evaluations remain higher and we have an abrupt setback, that would be the definition of a bubble. haslinda: in terms of c

did a series for the 25th anniversary of his inauguration, where we had john paul stevens and alan greenspan. and he would fly from california. he would come back just to introduce those people. he felt so honored that they would make that effort.mrs. ford came less frequently. they had a running gag, they divided the country in half for fund raising purposes. he had america east of the mississippi. she had the united states west of the mississippi. >> aj is in alexandria, virginia. one of the homes to the ford family. hi, aj. i have to push the button. hi. >> yes. i'm curious if there is a specific reason why the first lady invited king hussein for the first dinner she hosted at the white house? >> well, that---you know, it's interesting. she -- the president became president on august 9. on august 10th she was informed, almost matter of factly by the way, you do know that king hussein is coming in a week's time. so, she had nothing to do. this was something that had been arranged during the nixon administration. and she, literally, within her first 24 hours, was kind of, you know, thrown i

so therefore it is almost a, it is almost like a put but it is called, used to be called the greenspanrnanke put. it almost makes it impossible to bet against the market and i think that's what you have to weigh but clearly if you take corporate taxes and raise them to 28%, if you start raising taxes on individual, on estate taxes, on capital gains -- connell: that would hurt. >> if you ramp up regulations like he said, if you want to do a green new deal which is massive amounts of spending maybe good for economy, but that is more borrowing, which generally leads to higher interest rates in the long run. that all has to be calculated. connell: charlie, thank you. we'll talk about that. we mentioned earlier in the show. charlie gasparino. thank you good stuff as always. we'll be right back. 49... 50! i found you! good job. now i'm gonna stay here and you go hide. watch your favorites from anywhere in the house with the xfinity stream app. free with your xfinity service. now any room can be a tv room. stream live tv, on demand shows and movies even your dvr recordings. download the xfini

i looked at these this morning and just remember that when greenspan said the market was irrationallyxuberant was in 1986 even he was early. i'm not the only one who has been early a number of these stocks, if you look there was a time apple was a value stock trading at a teen p/e that is now over 30. you have tesla, amazon, netflix all at p/es of 100 plus. so this has not been anything about earnings it's been about momentum it's been about where to hide in a tough economy. and at some point valuation will matter >> amazon also took a wild swing intraday and closed off about 3% liz, it's true if you look at where the double digit gains are for 2020, they're in bonds they're in gold. and they're in the nasdaq. that has been somewhat of a safe spot for investors amid the uncertainty and the pandemic shift in behavior. is that still the case, or do valuations start to matter here? >> i think valuations matter today, and if you just think about what happened throughout the day we started with some really positive news on a vaccine and the market ripped on that news. and then when we got

alan greenspan said put that ten year up so we see it all the time we're seeing in recent weeks below .584 we saw oil prices pulling back a little bit there were some bills and inventories a little bit unexpected this week and then you've got the continuing concerns about the uneven reopening of the economy really not just in this country, andrew we probably have to worry about covid everywhere >> we do we do. here in particular given the continued spike. we're going to start this hour right now with the debate over more government stimulus from washington treasury secretary steven mnuchin says the trump administration does support more payments to americans. >> we do support another round of economic impact payments. you know, in most cases those are not checks, it's direct deposits and we can get that into hard working americans' bank accounts very quickly >> joining us right now for more on what we can expect from the next stimulus bill, senator shelly moore capito from west virginia good morning to you. what do you think this should look like? how much money should we be spending

metrics of the dot-com crash, things are much more solid in 2020, less irrational exuberance as greenspan famously said. back during the dot-com era, first day ipo returns were off the chart. this year we have only had a tenth and also the fact the dot-com frenzy days, this year, only half the rate of 19 years ago. another great sign for this year things might not be overdone, dividend paying stocks worth more than non-dividend paying stocks and that means there's more rational pricing in the market. the companies that pay money back to shareholders are priced as more stable as they should be. finally, there's more bearishness and disbelief than back in 2001, closed end funds trading at cheaper levels than the actual value of the assets in them which means investors are more fearful than greedy. there's more rational exuberance this time around. that's what i'm arguing. there might be more upside in 2020. stuart: well, we will wait and -- only time will tell as we all know. let's bring back mark tepper. i'm looking at the board now. all the big techs are way way down. would you buy any of