harker with us.re didnathan: former vice president joe biden go to deliver that speech on the economy? scranton, pennsylvania. that will be a huge focus in november. the aggregate numbers for the economy will only tell you so much. we will have a huge fragmentation beneath the surface. what you see playing out in california as they reverse the reopening. in texas you might see consumer and businesses pullback, already evidence economic activity is stalling. will we see a more seamless pickup in new york city and beyond for the state of new york and how far can that go given what is happening elsewhere? lisa: by the time we get this data it is dating. this is a high-frequency era and there is such a shifting environment based on the virus. what you are seeing in the indicators the new york fed put out seeing a decline, highlighting the concern about what is going on with respect to the increase in virus. jonathan: look at the market, up 45 points. we advance 1.4 percent on the s&p 500. the data will b

patrick harker gave us his outlook on the recovery.: the manufacturing sector has not bounced back. we saw our last report last month. we are seeing some good news there. particularly the city of philadelphia itself is from modly meds -- predominantly meds, and i'm concerned about those. not just a large medical institutions which have lost a lot of revenue because of elective procedures, but also in the rural communities. those rural systems have been hurt quite badly. >> what about the overall u.s. economy? now that we have seen this flareup across much of the country, are you advising your economic forecast? patrick: prior to this we saw a pretty big hit in the first half of this year, probably about 25% gdp in the first half. we thought it would bounceback around 13 in the second half commending around 6% down in gdp for the year and unemployment around 10%. we are revising it now because with the virus surging in the south and southwest of the country, we are very concerned about that. until we get the virus under control, we cann

harker: we saw a pretty big hit in the first half of this year. probably about 20% in the first half. we thought it would bounce back to 13% in the second half, ending 6% down in gdp and unemployment around 10%. we are revising it because with the virus surging in the south and southwest of the country, we are concerned about that. i am concerned about that. this will be a slow recovery. until we get the virus under control we cannot get the economy back. david: give us -- to give us a view of the economy in the united states and europe, we welcome megan greene, a fellow at the harvard kennedy school. great to have you back. start with the united states. the fed has done an awful lot for this economy. is there more we can expect from them? they have a meeting a couple weeks from now. : there is more the fed can do. the question is why would they do it. most of the fed tools are aimed at keeping the borrowing costs low. the costs are already low and they do not show any signs of backing up. the fickle out -- the fed could rule out things that provi

harker yesterday at the money question, the stability in the economy, does it change the stimulus debatecongress and does it change the debate for chairman powell? michael: if people understand economics it should not change the debate in congress because the jobless claims numbers show things getting worse. it has been singed -- it has been since july 1 when we started closing down again. the philadelphia fed number, we had patrick harker same things have gotten a little worse in pennsylvania, delaware, new jersey, at that number bears it out a little bit. we are not through this. a lot of the data is stale. retail sales are telling us what happened in june and jonathan you are telling us that feels like a lifetime ago. it does give a picture of when things might come back. with this data dump in terms of which is the highest frequency indicator? i am struck by the basic headline number coming in worse than expected, indicating there is the ongoing wave of layoffs in the wake of the virus cases. does that stand out to you for the number of the morning? michael: it is the one that tells

there for 30 years it may looters broke into the premises and stole numerous items the owner know harker saab says that clients are afraid to go downtown because of the ongoing protests she spoke to me about the situation in portland. and not only once many businesses in downtown portland are hurt it's not the portland we know it's not the city that we've been doing business in for over 30 years it's just boarded up streets. you know a lot of graffiti just destruction everywhere and we're very disappointed with the studio officials i don't consider what they're doing it's tutorship when you feel businesses like when your city looks like a war zone out suffield leadership and we're very disappointed we're very angry and at this time we just don't know what the future of downtown portland will look like and you allow lawlessness when you allow looting and we don't hold people accountable this stuff is going to continue and if their leadership here old businesses they're residents of downtown portland big time and just wait this is happening there is no accountability being held right now a

collapsed during a cabinet meeting and was later confirmed dead in hospital nicholas harker's been monitoring developments from senegal. this is a big blow for the president because with this comes a political crisis a political void the question is now who will replace coulibaly who was the chosen successor to want to or are expected to run in the next upcoming presidential election in october and whoever will come next will have to defeat the candidates which are. a former president of ivory coast a heavyweight of the opposition and the young newcomer that was once a close ally of what. the u.n. secretary general is warning of unprecedented levels of foreign interference in libya. content is urging the warring parties and the international bankers to end the political stalemate and agree to a cease fire. the u.s. president has welcomed his mexican counterpart to the white house under his money lopez obrador has been criticized for holding talks with donald trump who remains a divisive figure in mexico over his immigration policies on border war the leftist leader defended the trip trade rel

philadelphia's patrick harker speaking to michael mckee earlier on.ember of the fed talking about this idea of getting above 2%. trying to understand what the fed's reaction function is now. some people suggesting they should shift the focus toward unemployment because that is a meaningful, real story for real people in their day-to-day lives, keep stimulus going. it does seem at the moment as if they will stick to that 2% symmetrical target on inflation. argue many people would on the ground that, in the real world, inflation is already running relatively hot in the way the fed measures it. alix: totally, just look at day-to-day prices on certain things. i am interested on how this pivoted from yesterday. someone said, a thick fog of uncertainty is still surrounds us and downside risks predominate. looking ahead, it will likely be support.te, fiscal she also said we should look at monetary policy going towards longer run accommodations. what are longer run accommodations? if we are already looking at lower yields forever, i wonder what that literally

interesting -- patrick harker on the path forward for chairman powell and his federal reserve system. stay with us. from london, from new york, good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: bloomberg surveillance. good morning, everyone. guy in london for francine lacqua. i am tom keene in new york. it has been a resilient dollar, maybe not a strong dollar, but i am certainly going to call it resilient. that is such an in word now, and it applies. elga bartsch is with us from blackrock. with a great heritage of economics, a great heritage of fixed income. we will talk to elga bartsch, fx trader, right now. what is the significance if we get a breakdown in the dollar? what does that mean for our viewers and listeners? an orderly or abrupt move. so in terms of a somewhat weaker dollar, it obviously helps. if the fiscal were removed, then it would be more worrying because it could talk to various dislocations that might be the reason. but as usual, with currency moves, it is not just whether they move but also why they move. what is it going to be that gets the dollar lower? i'm trying to thin

overentral-bank coverage 20 years, ending with michael mckee's important conversation with patrick harkere philadelphia fed. all of them managing the pandemic message. sundstrom manages the asset allocations of pimco and we are thrilled that she could join if this money. i am managing the bloomberg terminal, which shows me a renewed compression -- she could join us this morning. i am managing the bloomberg terminal, which shows me a renewed compression. what does that signal? geraldine: it signals the economy could be recovering in general, but the interest rate is unlikely to behave as usual. all of the central bankers around the world have promised us similar policy. tothe curve decides not follow their desire, then yield curve control could be following, and as far as the eye can see, i would say that the market will have confidence that the rate will stay low despite flight becauset of the deficits around the world. and very below volatility in interest rates as a result. people take it for granted. tom: a number of years ago when you went from brevan howard to pimco, a guy named bill

nejra: that was philadelphia fed president patrick harker. coming up, world leaders call for global solidarity amid the coronavirus pandemic as global cases top 13.5 million. this is bloomberg. ♪ is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." turning to coronavirus and global infections continuing to surge, topping 13.5 million, tokyo has joined australia's second-biggest state victoria in hosting a record number of infections. los angeles has seen record number of inflations. texas posted 11,000 new cases, also a record8 world leaders issued a call for global solidarity. wei li from blackrock is still with us. we certainly saw quite a bit of risk in coming through in the hopes of the modernity vaccine. -- moderna vaccine. when you look at the appetite investors have had for risk assets, it looks as though there hasn't been -- has been a big favoring for fixed income in june. has that been in credit on the assumption that central-bank support is going to be around for a while? wei: absolutely. it makes the et g flows globally a record month in june and thi

just moments ago, we heard from the federal reserve philadelphia president patrick harker, on ongoing fight to deal with the coronavirus the u.s. failed to control it and is running behind. he also said he forecast negative 20% real gdp growth in the first half of 2020, followed though by 13% growth in the second half. so we're monitoring that. he is an important guy to listen to, because he is a voting member of the federal open market committee that sets the course on interest rates. meantime we're following developments in florida and in texas and in california and in indiana, sticking true to our "coast to coast" theme and everything in between. mostly dealing with when schools go back in session, in doubt in some of those locales, and when some provisions are rolled back because of spiking cases pretty much in all these locales. we'll keep you posted on all of those developments. edward lawrence right now, following fast-moving developments from washington. hey, edward. reporter: neil, yeah, talk about a lot of developments here, as you said the market was way up on the news abou

later on the program, patrick harker, philadelphia fed president. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. it is a big victory for apple at the european court general court. apple won its battle over an eu battle to pay ireland in texas, chief.ing blow to the eu tosident trump has moved order an end to hong kong's special trading status with the u.s.. he also signed legislation that would sanction chinese officials responsible for cracking down on political dissent in the city. beijing told the u.s. to quit interfering in chinese affairs. the bank of japan is out with a gloomier picture of the economy. -- central banks forecast the superbike forecasts japan's 4.3% -- theink central bank forecasts depends bank- the central forecasts japan's gdp will shrink 4.3%. former auburn coach tommy tuberville beat jeff sessions in an alabama primary. after the president named him attorney general, he turned on sessions' back because he recused himself from the russia investigation. global news 24 hours a day, on

anna: that was the philadelphia fed president patrick harker with his thoughts on rate hikes and inflationthe united states. meanwhile, ecb policy are widely expected to keep stimulus steady, but president christine lagarde will face questions over whether current monetary and fiscal pledges will prove sufficient to boost to the recovery. most economists expect the central bank to do more by december with total bond buying seen exceeding 2 trillion euros this year and next. marija veitmane, senior multi-asset strategist at state street, is still with us. what matters more to you? what the ecb does by the end of the year or is it what european leaders do by the end of this week? it is a verynk nice way to frame the question. done is givenas the european commission a fiscal space to spend. it has put the ball in their fiscalo kind of open policy more. what is about to happen and i hope it does happen this weekend is actually quite historical and monumental and very significant. if it works, it would be significant and really important for better functioning of european union. anna: it is par

patrick harker talking about a fiscal cliff.s the philly fed president and he made the comments to mike mckee. you talked to people in washington. what is the likelihood that this will get resolved in time to prevent that kind of catalyst for a setback that could potentially lead to a crash? scarlet: -- scott: washington is a hard animal to predict these days. i do know that other than a payroll tax holiday, there really is not much on the table coming out of the administration. for two will be back weeks. i think there is a great risk that there will not be a deal could extendaps we unemployment benefits by a couple more months. not --f senators do republican senators do not think that is necessary. high and we are in a seasonably week time for assets, a i think the possibility of severe setback between here and october is probably meaningful. high-profile twitter handles hacked. who was affected? what the social media site is doing about it and how investors are responding, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ karina: you are watching "

you're going to see down the road and that couples with what brainard and barkin and bullard and hashi harkeryesterday. i wonder why you think they're prepping the market with more stimulus do we think we're going to run into hard times on august 1st? >> when you look at how much forbearance was asked for it was pretty low when you look at the number of ppp, the companies that took the ppp, it's very high so what you start thinking is there's this -- mnuchin, the treasury secretary correctly bridged things, provided we have a vaccine quickly, but otherwise, i don't know, some kept when we start getting reports in october for this quarter, the next quarter, i think we're going to say, wow, it slipped back. and that's why you can't be overconfident here unless moderna is on a faster track than we realize. >> and, carl, as we listen to those opening bells, just real quickly remember almost one in five new cases of coronavirus around the world came from three states, florida, texas, and california we haven't seemed to mention that yet this morning. the case counts continue to mount as do the deat