the likes of robert kaplan saying this is the indication a risk off deal is taking hold.l be watching that today. jonathan: michael mckee speaking with robert kaplan, our kathleen hays speaking with mr. bullard. tomorrow the vice-chairman of the federal reserve system after the chairman speaks today. i have one observation, that is march of 2020, it started today. lisa: march of 2021. tom: excuse me. that was a surveillance correction. lisa: it is understandable. it is all melting together. tom: so sensitive. we should probably do yoga together. march of 2021. futures up three, nasdaq up .5%. tomorrow, richard clarida, most important interview. stay with us, this is bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. ♪ ♪ you can go your own way ♪ go your own way your wireless. your rules. only xfinity mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. and switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. switch and save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. with the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction. call, click, or visit your local xfinity store today.

dallas fed president robert kaplan descended -- dissented at last week's meeting and said the guidances too restrictive. robert: we should keep the current setting of the fed funds at zero to 25 basis points until we whether the pandemic and we are well on track to achieve full employment and price stability. that, by the way, is probably going to take at least 2, 2 and a half, three years. the issue is, beyond that point, once we've weathered the pandemic and are on track to reach our goals, i probably think it's appropriate to remain accommodative, or maybe even highly accommodative. i'm not sure it's appropriate to decide right now that at that point we should leave rates at zero. i would rather leave those judgments to future committees because i think the world is going to look very different post pandemic than it does now. i'd rather leave the judgment to future committees who can assessed all the factors that are relevant in order to make that decision. >> does that suggest you think we could come out of this with faster growth and most people are anticipating? robert: i will pu

robert kaplan from the dallas fed see is he is not worried until the dallas fed credit blows. losing streak since february. have a look at the fx. the fed talks about volatility in the fx markets. this is where he wants to belong. against the point, and against the kiwi, against the -- pound, against the kiwi, and against the yen. aussie down, yen up. yen is behaving much more classic. trade relative to gold in treasuries, morgan stanley says you are only halfway there. jovi, i'mlling bon channeling morgan stanley's equity note in terms of 23% drop on the nasdaq market. now, it is a $250 million date. that is the cost of this lockdown you have been talking about in the u.k. the business of economics and resource says this. they warned the danger and gdp could be as much as 3% to 5%. dani burger has been crunching the numbers and the details in terms of the scenarios spelt out . what is the story? >> let's be clear. their view is only with the 10 -- 10:00 p.m. curfew. there are not assuming we will have another full second down. but they look debt that china cracked curfew we s

there are two centers to this action, robert kaplan wants to see the statement to the way it was pretty wants to statement to read the economy or stance will remain the same until the economy has weathered the storm and the economic storm we have here. we'll cash on the other side dissented because he wants more dovish language in this. on implement rates, statistics are very interesting here. they have reduced now the planet rates rates and estimation of this year to 7.6% by the end of 2020 grid that is down from 9.3% from their june projection and then also 5.5% from on a plummet rates in 2021, 4.6 and 2022 and 4% in 2023. the real gdp prediction cut in half for the losses they are paired they are now saying it's a loss of 3.7% at the end of this year with a bounce back of 4% next year. the inflation, fed estimates that pce inflation is 1.2% this year up from 1.7% or up to 1.7% and then back to 2% in 2023. 1.2% is what they believe the pce inflation of this. basically everybody is at zero through 2022. this is the voting members and where they fall on the line. one person in 2023 is a

our michael mckee is with robert kaplan. michael: good morning to you, president kaplan. dallas fed president kaplan one of two dissenters last week. you endorsed the old forward guidance and dissented on the new because, according to this statement, you preferred greater flexibility. what does that mean? robert: what it means is i believe strongly we should keep you current setting of the fed funds rate at zero, zero to 25 basis points, until we have weathered the pandemic and we are well on track to achieve full employment and price stability. that, by the way, is probably going to take at least 2, 3 years. point,ue is, beyond that i think it is probably appropriate to remain accommodative. i am not sure it is appropriate to decide at that point that we would leave rates at zero. i would rather leave those judgments to future committees. i think the world is going to look very different post pandemic than it does now, and i would rather leave the judgment to future committees who can assess all of the factors that are relevant in order to make that decision. michael: do

interested,ple are i co-authored a piece on the foreign affairs website with robert kaplan yesterday, and our argument is that this is primarily not about ideology, it is largely about the degree of power that china has. for the chinese communist party, it is partly ideological. chinample reality is that is the largest state to enter the international system since the entrance of the u.s. it self in the 19th century. this is a massive solar system kind of influence that has an enormous gravitational pull. chinese interests first off are to gain hegemony over its region essentially to create a market area centered around china and for its long-term first party and security. of course, the united states can't afford that because, as i said, asia is the worlds largest , and that would greatly diminish american prosperity and ultimately freedom and security. china is basically developing a military consistent with these goals, which as a defense report -- long-standing nationalistic aspirations. host: here is the foreign affairs piece he wrote -- the ideology delusion. this is in the curr

matt: that was the dallas fed president robert kaplan speaking exclusively to bloomberg's mike mckee.the, we will speak ceo of the medical share company that has seen its share price balloon. ♪ give you my world ♪ ♪ how can i, when you won't take it from me ♪ ♪ you can go your own way ♪ ♪ go your own way your wireless. your rules. only with xfinity mobile. more voluminous hair instantly. all it takes is just one session at hairclub. introducing xtrands. xtrands adds hundreds or even thousands of hair strands to your existing hair at the root. they're personalized to match your own natural hair color and texture, so they'll blend right in for a natural, effortless look. call in the next five minutes and when you buy 500 strands, you get 500 strands free. call right now. (upbeat music) anna: good morning, everybody. 7:30 in london, 8:30 if you are in paris. remember, europe was really an underperformer in yesterday's session versus the u.s. the nasdaq caught up for earlier losses, but it still left the dax down by more than 4% with some of european markets down substantially. let's take

coming up, we speak to the federal reserve bank of dallas president, robert kaplan. london time. coming up next in this program we will be looking ahead to this week's eu leaders summit. relations with turkey will feature prominently. over borders in the mediterranean continues. ♪ ♪ thearie: now it is time for brussels addition. your essential need to go -- need to know guide in europe's political epicenter as the leaders prepare for a summit beginning thursday. relations look increasingly strained. the relationship with turkey is at a crossroads as the bloc presses ankara to halt energy expiration in the eastern mediterranean. let's get more with maria tadeo in our brussels studio. turkey, this is going to be high on the agenda. does turkey faces the threat of more sanctions? >> yes, it is high on the european agenda. that is as european leaders prepare to come here to brussels later on this week. as you mentioned, this is all to do with that escalation we have seen over the summer between the turkish government and the greek government. this is all about energy, ab

tom keene joins me out of new york, and later, a conversation with robert kaplan.omberg. ♪ ♪ you can go your own way ♪ go your own way your wireless. your rules. only xfinity mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. and switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. switch and save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. with the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction. call, click, or visit your local xfinity store today. francine: banks bruised. leaked documents related to more than $2 trillion in transactions show banks kept profiting from powerful and dangerous actors, even after the u.s. introduced penalties. hsbc shares sink. lockdown 2.0? the u.k. will sound the alarm on rising infections today. the london mayor, sadiq khan, is set to recommend more restrictions. and with just six weeks to go until the u.s. election, the supreme court has emerged as a pivotal battle after the death of liberal justice ruth bader ginsburg. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene is in new y

that is the flexibility robert kaplan was talking about when he did his interview with me explainingbits going to be a confusing for people on wall street at this point to understand what they mean when they say average inflation targeting. i'm not sure anyone on capitol hill is going to ask about that. alix: you can see rates coming up a little bit. in terms of what bullard said yesterday that was surprising? kind of an outlier on this view. a lot of people look at that and say it is a macro view. there is a lot of money in the whole economy. money has gone to corporations and they have sold a lot of bonds, that doesn't tell people who lost their jobs. alix: we are still waiting for the testimony. also want to point out, the eu councile president is in quarantine after a security officer tests positive. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: live from london, i'm guy johnson. here is what you need to know from europe this hour. boris johnson tells the english to work from home for six months. talkingses in europe mergers. ubs, a credit suisse and deutsche bank executives have been talking at the

vonnie: that was part of our exclusive interview with dallas fed president robert kaplan.e of the interview next hour right here on bloomberg. coming up, adapting art auctions. christie's ceoth how auctions are finding new ways to reach buyers amid the pandemic. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: this is bloomberg markets -- -- amanda: this is bloomberg markets. i am amanda lange and turano, vonnie quinn in new york. we talked about the stay-at-home stocks. could the big auction houses be benefiting from a stay-at-home trend with a certain type of investor? guillaume cerutti is ceo of christie's. thank you for being with us, sir. i want to start there with, we had this sense that there is a bigger appetite than ever for what we might call an alternative asset, hard assets that are beyond the typical stocks or bonds. are you seeing higher demands than you would have expected because of the pandemic? guillaume: we have seen higher demand without doubt. on the demand side, the appetite from existing collectors and new collectors has been very strong over the last month, especially fro

robert kaplan. he'll nail it, next on bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one.e thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business. lookentertainmentour experience: xfinity x1. it's the easiest way to watch live tv and all your favorite streaming apps. plus, x1 also includes peacock premium at no extra cost. this baby is the total package. it streams exclusive originals, the full peacock movie library, complete collections of iconic tv shows, and more. yup, the best really did get better. magnificent. xfinity x1 just got even better, with peacock premium included at no additional cost. no strings attached. >> i'm not going to say there is a bubble forming. i'm going to say there is potential for one to form. >> i think there is a lo

alix: that was robert kaplan, dallas had president, speaking earlier about the need for stimulus.ederal reserve chairman jay powell and treasury secretary steven mnuchin will be testifying before lawmakers on the issue tomorrow. joining us is peter huber, deutsche bank -- is peter hooper, deutsche bank global head of economic research. because the focus is turning so much now to the supreme court and so much divide between republicans and democrats in the senate, fiscal stimulus is definitely not going to happen. without it, what happens to the economy? peter: we sharpened our pencils recently to see what that assumption is going to do. i agree with you, it looks like we are not going to get it. we previously had some thing close to 6% growth in the fourth quarter. that is coming down at this point very close to zero. we think the absence of further support to households it's going to take some thing like 5%, 6% out of the annual rate of growth in the fourth quarter. we do think we will get something in the new year, and that will begin to give things a bit of a lift. but the mont

how about an important interview at the center, robert kaplan. i believe these are his first comments since his dissent, the meeting last week. this is an extremely important interview. michael mckee in conversation with president kaplan of the dallas fed. dow futures -464. -- -4.64. spx, -49. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." we are watching markets, which are more than difficult. the vix on four big figures, negative three .60 right now, 29.43. some real upset not only about the pandemic and potential lockdowns, including in the united kingdom, but also stimulus has drifted away and thought in america, of course, over the uproar over the death of ruth bader ginsburg and who will replace her. on the banking front, there is any number of reports. joining us, jonathan tyce of bloomberg intelligence. i hate to say it, but it is an elegant chart, and that is the plunge and persistency of plunge of hsbc. i would suggest that if that bank were an american bank, it would be front and center on the mind of insti

robert kaplan suggesting they should stick to more ambiguity because the world is going to look different in two or three years when they finally get around to it, while neel kashkari was saying we should be stronger in our guidance and say we won't liftoff until we are above 2% and start averaging. but both of them are saying a couple years from now, we are still going to have rates lower for longer, so there is not much difference. it's try to make a big deal out of it, but you are not going to see any rate moves for quite some time until we get a real inflation surprise, no one is expect and that -- no one is expect and that. tom: i think you should get two or three questions at the press conference. jonathan: that would be a good solution. i think we should do what we do at the ecb, which is ask those two questions and hold onto the mic to ask a follow-up as well. here's the price action going into the opening bell this wednesday. on market doing nothing, 0.6 8%. the fx market doing something. $1.1693, downr, about 0.1%. not with theet enthusiasm we saw a few hours ago. , 127.31.is a

we were talking about this and other issues with robert kaplan this afternoon at 1:00 on the exchangeo dissented and has interesting thoughts on where monetary policy ought to be right now >> fabulous. we'll look forward to that as well becky? >>> andrew, thanks when we come back we have much more of last night's first presidential debate. what did the business community take away from it and who do business leaders like. by the way i'll sayed good-bye right now. i'll be back later i'm going to leave to get ready for delivering alpha 9:00 a.m. eastern time hkat interview with steven mnucin you can catch it right here on cnbc bye dierks i'll see you later. "squawk box" will be right back. ♪ ♪ good job, michael! does. ok, lindsey now tell the class what your mommy does... my mom has super powers. it's like she can see the future. what?! it's like she time travels in a rocket ship. that's cool! and then she comes back saying "try this" or "try that." she helps everyone. she helps them feel less worried. wow! mommy, so what is it that you do? i'm a financial advisor. she is! aig proudly s

interested,ple are i co-authored a piece on the foreign affairs website with robert kaplan yesterday, our argument is that this is primarily not about ideology, it is largely about the degree of power that china has. for the chinese communist party, it is partly ideological. chinample reality is that is the largest state to enter the international system since the entrance of the u.s. it self in the 19th century. this is a massive solar system kind of influence that has an enormous gravitational pull. chinese interests first off are to gain hegemony over its region essentially to create a market area centered around china and for its long-term first party and security. of course, the united states can't afford that because, as i said, asia is the worlds largest , and that would greatly diminish american prosperity and ultimately freedom and security. china is basically developing a military consistent with these goals, which as a defense report -- long-standing nationalistic aspirations. host: here is the foreign affairs piece he wrote -- the ideology delusion. this is in the current

robert kanter. >> deborah h. kaplan. >> robin lynne kaplan. >> alvin peter kappelmann, jr. >> charles h. karpiloff. >> charles l. kasper. >> andrew k. kates. >> john a. katsimatides. >> robert michael kaulfers. >> don jerome kauth, jr. >> hideya kawauchi. >> edward t. keane. >> richard m. keane. >> lisa yvonne kearney-griffin. >> karol ann keasler. >> barbara a. keating. >> paul hanlon keating. >> leo russell keene iii. >> brenda kegler. >> chandler raymond keller. >> joseph john keller. >> peter r. kellerman. >> joseph p. kellett. >> frederick h. kelley iii. >> james joseph kelly. >> joseph a. kelly. >> maurice p. kelly. >> richard john kelly, jr. >> thomas michael kelly. >> thomas richard kelly. thomas w. kelly. >> timothy colin kelly. >> william hill kelly, jr. >> robert clinton kennedy. >> thomas j. kennedy. >> yvonne e. kennedy. >> john richard keohane. >> ralph francis kershaw. >> ronald t. kerwin. >> howard l. kestenbaum. >> douglas d. ketcham. >> ruth ellen ketler. >> boris khalif. >> norma cruz khan. >> sarah khan. >> taimour firaz khan. >> rajesh khandelwal. seilai khoo. >> mic