the chain of infection'. dr david bailey is the chair of the british medical association's wales council and joins me now fromink, hopefully, it will be. it's been suggested that if we can doa be. it's been suggested that if we can do a strict lockdown for the 17 days proposed, we will hopefully get a break and get the number back to one again. we are more or less coping where we are at the moment but, in wales, the numbers are going up but, in wales, the numbers are going up 50% every week and it won't take much for things to become overwhelmed and the idea is to take complete cut for two weeks, trying get the number down to about one so that the numbers are stable, and, if we can do that, then we can probably get through to christmas. hopefully, we'll be singing about a vaccine soon after that and it will mean that businesses who make their most money in the run—up to christmas was still be able to cope. the impression in that answer is that without a vaccine that things revert to how they are now. to some extent, that's absolutely correct. if we don't have a vaccine, sooner or later, numbers will start to