let's get straight to sam fazeli, bloomberg intelligence's senior pharmaceutical analyst. sam, thank you, as always, for giving us a little part of your busy day. i know there are talks a vaccine would be available asap in the u.k., but does it mean that it will accelerate other jurisdictions, also saying they are ok with the vaccine being approved? sam: morning, francine. vaccinet news that the has been approved by the u.k. i do not think it will affect other jurisdictions. the fda already has its timeline set up for simmer 10 for the biontech meeting, and it is a public meeting, so anybody can listen to it and see all the data in its full glory, and of course december 17 for the motor in her vaccine, and we think -- moderna vaccine. this does not really impact much else. francine: sam, what does it impact? it will come a longer term, of course, impact lockdowns. how long will it take for, you know, lockdowns to easily fade? how much of a percentage of the population do you need to vaccinate to get rid of social distancing and masks? masksocial distancing and are going to

sam fazeli with regards to the latest vaccine approval news.et's talk to a guest about the potential market impact of this kind of news flow. the hour, the u.k. government has been told by the medicines agency in the u.k. it can approve the pfizer-biontech covid-19 vaccine. we saw movement in ftse futures. some in fixed income as well. certainly not on the scale we saw around efficacy for pfizer and beyond tech. does this news flow -- is that all priced in already? >> obviously a lot of it is priced in. it has been positive news for market. now what we are seeing is consummation. it is important that the rally driven by this optimism thanks to the sustainability of the vaccine, that this is conserved. the fact it is approved in the u.k., that it is going to be approved in the u.s., is a consummation of the fact we are theg to have a future in next month. it is important to have that view, but it is not surprising the market has not reacted as much on the initial news. anna: so buy the rumor, sell the fact is a common adage. the equivalent might

yousef: furthermore, sam fazeli r more, sam fazeli joins us.it likely to expand given the current list we are familiar with? sam: yes, good morning. it is possible that it will expand. one interesting element that has been added in the u.k. is the hypothesis, and i have to stress that all of these are hypothesis until saudi data backs them, that the -- solid data backs them, that the rapid increase three we are seeing in the u.k. may be driven by youngsters, adolescents catching the virus and even younger people. because the virus has found a way to be more efficacious in getting into your cells, and those age bands are less susceptible normally, it seems to be that that might be what opposede rapid rise, as to people like me being more susceptible to the virus. if that is the case, it obviously impacts massively how we think about schools and opening of schools everywhere, especially the u.k. ousef: the indications are that this vaccine, or vaccines in general, are meant to be continue to be effective with this variant. there is no hard eviden

francine: let's get the details from fan -- from sam fazeli from bloomberg intelligence. the news is out. how quickly can some of these clearances be given? sam: good morning, francine. fdahe u.s. we have the meeting coming up on december 10. it is possible they move on that pretty quickly the next day or the day after. and then in europe, this is the combination of a process that started off sometime in early october where the companies have been filing their manufacturing , and there is no new data in the press release. so it is possible that we should get a european response by -- before the end of the year as well. biggere: is it a challenge to get regulatory approval, or a bigger challenge to get out there and have a distribution system where people get vaccinated in a timely fashion? sam: the regulatory side of things, a really good question. the regulatory side of things is a non-process. in that -- is a well-known process. it has been known all along across the atlantic, across the globe. for anyould be room major surprise, with companies that have built up so much

alix: thanks for that, bloomberg's sam fazeli. joining me with more is professor revenger group to -- professor ravindra gupta, cambridge university professor, included as one of time magazine's most influential people in 2020. what is the new strain? how contagious is it? how do we know? ravindra: the new strain, what we call a variant, is the virus that he's emerged in the southeast of the united kingdom and spread throughout the country and to other countries. unusualiant is rather in that it carries a large number of mutations, at least eight mutations in key parts of the virus. for exam become of the spike .rotein this virus is very interesting because of these modifications that we have pretty good to be important based on in vitro studies. in terms of what it is going to mean for vaccines, we don't know at the moment, but we are andecting those studies populations to learn what the impact of these mutations are going to be. alix: help me understand this as a non-virologist. how much of it is due to natural mutations, that i

sam fazeli joins us now, bloomberg intelligence senior pharmaceuticals analyst and director of research here in europe. let's start with what we are expecting from the fda today and through to thursday. sam: good morning. today is the day that, any minute, very soon we should get the briefing documents. basically, the big 100 page, sometimes more, documents the fda puts together which has all of the arguments from the companies and all of the analysis the fda has done into the public domain, and that is what the panel that is being convened on thursday will be voting on. so there's been a lot of data and hear, more than we have ever seen for any of these vaccines so far. lisa: since today is the day the u.k. starts inoculating people for the first time, what are you looking out in terms of the rollout to get a sense of how effective it will be in places like the united states? sam: we've had margaret and william over here in the u.k. getting vaccinated, and of course, there will be hundreds and thousands of people in the same age group that will be targeted over the next few days. the p

sam fazeli joins us now. sam, for big pharma, this is a huge victory. i know we are all surprised by this, but for you as an informed individual, what is the greatest surprise of the success of big pharma? surprise, tomest -- and good morning to you on this hopeful day -- is that they managed to do this so fast. i think the last time anybody develop the vaccine so fast was 220 years ago when the first developed.b was of course, he tested on his son. am mostthe thing that i excited by, how fast we have been able to cut the red tape and get this product through the process. the research that went into it took years. tom: what have you learned about the cold that is required to deliver this therapy? what have you learned in the last number of days about liquid nitrogen, the ability to get down there, where centigrade is lower or kelvin is mentioned? are continuing issues. we know how pfizer has managed to deal with it as in the u.s., and in the first wave of getting these things done, when you listen to cvs, who is actively involved in doing this in the u.

running us now, sam fazeli, director of research of emea. first of all, good morning. astrazeneca feel they needed to do this deal? sam: good morning. bit of aually a surprise to me, at least, and as you can see from the market reaction, in the market, too. this was a company that was growing the best growth rates as any large pharma out there, and then they announced this deal. to me it is a financial thing. issuing shares to buy cash flow for the future. they are buying a decent stream of cash flow until at least 2025, and they have got a highly rated paper. they are using that to buy a much lower rated paper. to me it is a financial thing, and also prices of buying fits. overall, where are we on the vaccine for astrazeneca? there was also some very controversial story about astrazeneca also looking at the russians for the vaccine. where exactly are we? sam: let's not forget that russian or chinese, these are developed by scientists and local companies, and doing combination studies is something that we should be doing anyway have startedthey talking about. the combin

sam fazeli, updating us on the vaccine. to6:30 eastern, we will talk the editor of the lancet. leaders arehinese expected to approve a hard auto investment deal, paving the way intouropean companies foreign companies -- joining us from brussels is maria. can you give us the broadbrush details of what this deal actually is? this -- in 15 minutes, the heads of the european institution angela merkel are will be back. jinping of china jumping on a videoconference that see -- that will see this plan come to fruition. two things the europeans have been briefing today, one is that china will make a pledge to be more transparent when it comes to state subsidies that have been an issue for europeans who worry about state money being dumped into the chinese company needs that can engage in predatory -- the chinese saying it is looking at is open markets in european capitals. this was key for the eu. the big question is what areas are the chinese not conceding. how is europe going to enforce this? dealing with china can be problematic. the you look at the impact state still has, and the i

annmarie: thank you for joining us, sam fazeli, our senior analyst.tical to you.ood morning thank you for joining us the week of christmas. has your outlook changed since we learned about the new variant that seems more easily transmittable and he says has been in the united kingdom for months? >> good morning. forn't think the picture 2021 has changed that significantly from the news we had overnight. always came into this knowing the second half of next year was looking a lot stronger and there was a lot more uncertainty about the pace of the recovery in the first half of the year and particularly q1 and what this is telling us is restrictions are going to be required to either be stricter or be in place for longer or a combination of both, so there is clearly greater uncertainty now about the path of q1 in particular. this is a bump on the road to recovery, but we are looking at a much stronger two, particularly in the context of working on the basis that the vaccine is still effective and therefore, we are looking at a resumption of stronger levels of activity later in the year, s

sam fazeli, bloomberg intelligence senior pharmaceutical analyst and head of emea research. they can't assess older groups, but to confirm the vaccine efficacy. what does that mean, can't assess effects in older groups? i am flyingto say blind here because this has just broken and i haven't seen it, so i assume this means they didn't have enough cases in the older population to be able to tell. this is a smaller trial in terms of the never of patients compared to the pfizer/biontech nes, so we will have to see what that means. i have been looking to see what it does in the younger population because that could be a solution in itself. the manufacturing error, we have three groups in brazil and the u.k. shotve the full shot, full in brazil, and in the u.k. we shot,he full shot, full shot.e half shot, full shot hasshot, full been confirmed at about 90%. how far away from me are we -- how far away are we from being able to produce data that will allow the latter to become the way this is ultimately dissed her beat into the population? -- ultimately distributed to the population

joining us now is sam fazeli, bloomberg intelligence senior pharmaceutical images -- pharmaceutical analyst and director of emea research. how much of this is normal, and the markets just have to understand and go with the flow a little bit here? sam: hi. first thing to say is that this change in the number of doses available in 2020 wasn't really news to us. we just didn't make a fuss about it. the last we knew about it was early november, so they dropped that from 100 million to 50 million. the fact that it is because of access to raw materials obviously is an issue because you do wonder whether they will be able to get the raw materials they need in 2021. that seems to be the case they are making, that we shouldn't worry about that. hopefully they are right. otherwise, we definitely need other vaccines to work. guy: does this undermine the case for the u.k. going early? george: not really -- sam: not really. approval is step one. you can approve something you don't have. i don't make any difference, frankly. they are just going to have 800,000 doses that they are going to have next week.

joining us with more is sam fazeli, bloomberg intelligence senior pharmaceutical analyst. we have seen more targeted lockdowns and extensions. is any of that working now in europe? sam: yes, they are. funny that we have countries going at different paces which is normal because they have different issues with regards to the number of people infected. its rules a bit. france relaxed rules. in all honesty, the only difference i can feel now in france, and i think it is the same in the u.k., is how you can socialize with people. other than that, everything is open and running. the fact that other countries are going through this is because they didn't take the right precautions before, and now they are doing what france on the u.k. did before that. guy: are we starting to see the thanksgiving effect in the u.s. numbers? what does that tell us about christmas here in europe? every country will have its own little path at the end of the day. i don't think that there is going to be a christmas specifically in any country that is going to be the same as each other. that is the pro

alix: joining us with more a sam fazeli, bloomberg intelligence senior pharmaceutical analyst and director of emea research. there are some questions. what i would like to know is how they are going to manage to organize beyond the hospitals to get vaccine perhaps to the care homes, where you don't really want those people to leave their homes and come to the hospital. he want to dictate vaccine to them. thatill they make sure they won't get undue wastage, and make sure that people go back and get their second dose? because that would be another waste. guy: as you say, wastage is going to be a huge factor. there's clearly going to be additional demand. how will all of these companies bring in extra manufacturing capacity. how quickly can they do that? how quickly can we start to wrap this whole process up? sam: they've committed to 1.3 billion doses in 2021. morena is a little realistic. they go for a range of 500 to one billion. i think they are worrying about whether or not they can actually make sure their efficiency remains at the levels they are when they ramp up massively to 80 milli

as many of you know, sam fazeli, our great pharmacologist expert, we take real issue with the cases mathematicspandemic. it is about hospitalizations and those constraints, and it is about deaths. in the united kingdom on a per capita basis, as we speak, the deaths are greater than they were at the worst for the united states in april or may. again, on a per capita basis. it is a grim december. drew armstrong, the vaccines are going to come. they are going to come later. what do we do in the meantime? drew: i think what you are seeing happen in the meantime right now is a return to some of these lockdown and stay-at-home orders you were discussing earlier on the program. california issuing what they expect within days is going to be a return to some of those spring restrictions, with limits on activity, capacity limits at businesses, and encouragement of people to stay home if icu capacity drops below 15%. the main thing i think is a little bit different now than the spring is that they do seem to be a little bit more regional , a little more targeted. kind of condition based to go in and out b

matt: all right, sam fazeli, talking to us again a little bit about vaccines and the rising infectiong intelligence 's senior pharmaceuticals analyst and director of research . . we will continue talking to him about these vaccines as they are rolled out. as anna just said, we saw the first patient in the u.k. outside of trials get vaccinated, and they continue now. 66,999,099 people to go. coming up, boris johnson is headed to brussels to meet with european commission president ursula von der leyen, as key issues remain on both sides. brexit has not been solved. this is bloomberg. ♪ s bloomberg. ♪ when you switch to xfinity mobile, you're choosing to get connected to the most reliable network nationwide, now with 5g included. discover how to save up to $400 a year with shared data starting at $15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. you can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. stop in or book an appointment to shop safely with peace of mind at

let's bring in sam fazeli for more from bloomberg intelligence. every time you join us, it is good news, and that makes us happy. and i've been pretty bored recently with the consensus view around this market. put a smile on our faces. the rollout, what does it look like in the u.k. over the next several months? sam: the rollout i think will be pretty much the same in most of the jurisdictions where this vaccine will be made available. initially, i suspect the people who are going to be offered it will be the health care workers. workers willh care be easiest to get to first because they are mostly based in hospitals or institutions who can manage the requirement for this vaccine. be thet one will long-term care facilities, some of which are not going to be that close to a hospital. that is going to be quite interesting in terms of delivering a vaccine to those areas and keeping it fresh so that you can get that into people's arms. jonathan: the prime minister saying there's no plan to make the vaccine mandatory. as i understand it, you get the fi

so much foryou joining us, sam fazeli.ed its hardest locked down yet, closing schools and nonessential businesses, banning alcohol on the streets. buyill not even be able to alcohol for a few hours on new year's eve as chancellor merkel attempts to stop the rise in infections. measures will be in place until january 10, but maybe longer. let's get over to marcel fratzscher, president, diw german institute for research. like the worst possible time for the economy to go into harder lockdowns. some any retailers are turning profitable for the year and will not be able to. is the government capable of financing businesses in a way to save them or will we see a wave of bankruptcies? the german government is doing everything they can. there is hardly any country who has put on bigger stimulus programs helping companies and compensate them for the cost and the revenue. neverrnment can compensate entirely for the cost of such a pandemic. the german government has announced further stimulus measures starting from january. it does

sam fazeli, thank you very much for giving us your thoughts.to the session that looks really negative for european stocks. u.s. futures mostly point to the downside. stoxx 600 in europe down by more than 2%. just giving you some of the aviation response. 5%.air down by more than lufthansa down by more than 8%. we do not have prices on easyjet. joining us is our guest, head of global macro strategy. really good to speak to you. i know you like many investors have started looking at the cyclical trades, the opening up trades. does it now seem as if that was a little premature, or were we always going to get these winter setbacks and we need to focus on the medium-term? guest: good morning. we were always going to get these setbacks, and we were always going to have profit taking. we knew it would be a difficult winter. we new measures would get tighter, particularly in europe. we went from trying to save christmas to now blocking christmas and not just in the u.k. february,y, january, until the better weather of easter, it was always going to be

fazeli,us is sam bloomberg pharmaceutical expert and emea had. sam: we were all very keen to see the details in the fda , but the europeans seem to be taking their time. i am not quite sure what is going on because obviously now the u.k., canada, u.s., bahrain, and some other places have approved the vaccine. december, 29is 21 december, they might be wanting justccinate somebody before new year's eve guy: the thing about -- new year's eve. guy: the thing about the eu is that the process is different. yougency use -- i'm telling this, you know this. [laughter] i am wondering why we find ourselves in this problem. basically, emergency use authorization in the united is not a licensed product. in the eu, it becomes a licensed product and there is liability for the manufacturer. as europe spent too much time t's?ng i's and crossing is this process to slow and onerous in a fast-moving situation like the pandemic? sam: let's not beat them up too much, the european union, because at the end of the day come we are talking, if this is the 17th when the mo

we will talk to sam a little bit later to talk more about the vaccines and the safety of them. fazelimberg intelligence. up next, more market commentary. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. we are getting to brexit in a second. i keep getting mixed messages about whether michel barnier is going to go back or not. let's get to first word news with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: i'm going to start with brexit, brexit trade talk said to be on the verge of a breakthrough, hitting a last-minute bump. the british government says the prospects of an imminent deal has been receded, blaming the e.u. with new demands. questioning whether the remarks are intended to pile last-minute pressure on the talks. hungary's prime minister says he will not a hint -- and his block brusselsckage unless blocked its ties upholding democratic values. he reiterated an agreement between his nation and poland to hold up the budget. the comments sent the prospect of a deal at the e.u. summit next week. the u.k. granted f