tom: romaine bostick read that article. every coefficient. will see if i can remember half that stuff. we will find out in 16 weeks. we talk about the definition mission -- the definition of value and a lot of people have taken the fed environment to redefine what themselves what value can mean. if we ever do get some sort of normalization of monetary policy, a normalization at the same time as fiscal policy, do we revert back to what we would normally consider to be value in growth? to those spread back out? robert: there are so many catalysts that could revert things back towards normal. a normalization of fiscal policy , a normalization of monetary policy could be the catalyst. it could just be, as is the case of the tech bubble in the year 2000, just gravity can bring the high flyers back down to earth. when we were working last summer on the paper examining the value effect, one of the things that is interesting is over the last dozen years, if you use price-to-book value which is the conventional way to measure value, the value stocks u

bostick.rse will join us from citigroup on commodities any moment. some stability in oil through the week, just under $70 a barrel on brent crude. i believe i heard matt miller talk about gasoline on this memorial day weekend, up near a 10 year high. we will have to discuss that as well. i would also note, as the dollar is churning here, within that is strong renminbi. we will get to that any moment with dr. morse. futures will never go down, and now to explain all that matters with gamestop, amc and the rest of it, mr. bostick. romaine: i'm actually going to start with ford because this is the other meme stock rallying. tom: ford is a meme stock? romaine: it is now. right now up 2%. doing work over there to try to pivot this company towards ev. investors seem to like what they hear. this is a company now firmly in the conversation about not only making ev's, but really leading in the ev space. this is a company a lot of people think can actually go punch for punch with tesla in regards to wha

. >> i'm romaine bostick. financial markets, merger media dominated the headlines. >> the question is, what'd you miss? >> in some ways, elon musk becoming the godfather of crypto. the price of additional coin goes in one direction or the other. about a quarter of bitcoin's value has been wiped away in a week. was it him that gave it the lift higher back earlier this year when he said tesla would allow purchases? remember on saturday night live when he said dogecoin was a hussle? michael nova gratz may have something to say. first, we have to dig into how the markets started the week. interesting winners on the back of crypto. >> a wild start to the market, everyone focused on the big crypto selloffs over the weekend. crypto is kind of week. elon musk with his tweets, delivering a bit of a blow. not a huge impact rightly on the market other than tack is down, nasdaq down, tesla down over 2%, semiconductors 9%. some hard drive makers were up because there is a new cryptocurrency called chia that people are mini

anna: that was the atlanta fed president rafael bostick.g up, we get back to the crypto yo-yo. what is next for bitcoin? ♪ >> we go through soul-searching times. >> people have made their peace with the volatility. >> imagine roads with no speed limits. nobody knows if you should drive fast or slow. if you have a speed limit, everyone knows what the rules are and they adjust their behavior. >> the comment from china had an impact. i don't know that there was anything new. >> a rehashing of an announcement that was made in 2017. not a material event in our view. anna: some of the voices we have been speaking to on bitcoins fall and rise. it was a roller coaster. let's get more on that. walk us through what we saw yesterday. this incredible volatility in an asset some people say could be a haven to replace gold. walk us through what we saw. >> basically it started to go down and there was this quick drop of almost $30,000 in bitcoin. it did rise pretty quickly back up. it was not just bitcoin. it was either -- ether. the entire crypto conflux

jonathan: i also know the bostick household doesn't watch tv.t you are doing over the weekend, a bit of final. -- witt of vinyl -- bit of vinyl. i like that. romaine bostick just mentioned that george soros bought into some of these assets which they were stocks previously owned by bill hwang a couple of months ago, when archegos blew up. if he could have held on a couple more months, he would be having a good morning this morning. lisa: he would, but he didn't. this is the problem with leverage, with having yourself where you don't have the flex ability to hold on, even if you have belief in a company. that is basically what we saw with bill wang. jonathan: discovery flying this morning. joining us now is vince reinhardt, mellon chief economist. it is difficult to get a read on this economy and come up with what happens next. let's start there, how difficult it is to forecast at the moment. vincent: inflection points are terrible. we are definitely on the upside of the v for activity, to the point that we have to worry about technical matters a

as a result of the bostick mining industrial scale farm.

romaine bostick i believe is in the house. maybe he will be smoother in his reporting.will try my best, tom. we will take a look at the movers and premarket. deere having a phenomenal year, the best start in about three decades. the shares already up 30% on a year-to-date basis, up another percentage point in the premarket. that forward guidance well above street estimates. i'm talking about guidance on a net income basis here. also benefiting really strongly from a big used in the export market. keep an eye on what has been going on in the ev space. it has been kind of a topsy-turvy week. lordstown motors was down on a brutal downgrade, saying that new price target is now one dollar. a lot of that is because of what people are looking at with regards to ford. ford has been very aggressive over the past couple of months in rolling out there ev strategy. analysts are saying the real kicker with ford is the way they are pricing the ford f1 50, the electric version, and some of these other electric vehicles, it is going to be really hard for some of these companies to keep

romaine bostick on "the closed" this afternoon -- on "the close" this afternoon.nomists, but rarely do they piece together this confidence. thomas costerg is looking at 10% growth, and boldly says 6% follow-on. are we grossly underestimating the sustainability of the kind of earnings, the kind of global and u.s. oomph that romaine was talking about? thomas: there were checks in the mail in march, and you spend them in april and may, so that means very strong growth in the second quarter. after that, i think we will have less fiscal support. we will have an economy that returns to pre-coronavirus trend. we knew it would be more difficult to get strong growth in the second half of the year, and especially in 2022, so i would expect growth to moderate after a very strong second quarter. tom: on a trend basis, do we moderate down to something that is gloomy? do we moderate to some run rate in your head? or do we moderate to something that is more poignant? -- more buoyant? thomas: my answer is we go back to the precrisis trend, no more, no less. but i am against the v

bloomberg's romaine bostick is speaking to coinbase's coo and president.n here. >> there is certainly good reason to think that crypto has a place in some investors' port -- investors' portfolios. you need to have a medium to longer term time horizon for it. you need to be able to stomach some volatility along the way. crypto can be volatile. given that it is here to stay, we encourage investors to evaluate crypto like they would any other investment opportunity available to them. i think now you really see the development of a much more robust, healthier, two-sided market with the ability to access crypto at a level that we just haven't seen before. romaine: that is a great point. on the volatility point, we have seen over the past few months volatility tamped down a bit. i've seems dumb statistic basically showing that as far as bitcoin goes, we have probably seen the volatility at some of the lowest relative levels since its inception here. offering access products. we have 14 unique offerings where investors can access cryptocurrency without needing to

romaine: i'm romaine bostick.aroline hyde will be back on monday, but in financial markets, wild today. joe: the question is, what'd you miss? romaine: bitcoin rounding off a volatile week for the largest cryptocurrency. this time it was china, as it was last time, and it's not the only thing moving this week. futures did bounce back today, but posted its worst week in two months. you also had oil sliding with its worst week in six. amid all this noise, the s&p 500 is what, down a fraction of a week still? joe: the s&p not going anywhere. all kinds of action, except it seems in stocks has been going sideways. if you look at the s&p 500, not up, not down, it's been a quiet few weeks. romaine: it's called treading water, joe. joe: for more, let's welcome process at reporter -- cross asset reporter katie greifeld. everyone's attention is turned elsewhere and there is stuff happening. katie: stocks are not doing anything. that chart looks dead in the water. bitcoin, when you are plunging 30% in a day and doing it almo

romaine: i'm romaine bostick. let's look at where financial markets ended. the s&p, nasdaq and the coin ended in red. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss?" caroline: before we dig into joe's new crypto, bottlenecks in the supply chain over and over and over again. as the economy makes its recovery, we are seeing shortages, rising prices from chips to lumber to even mattresses. we saw that in the u.s. housing data released today. global supply chain struggling to ramp up. shortages are higher as companies and customers are running out of supplies. we hear from the walmart ceo and macy's speak to the supply chain issue. before we dig into that, the market is interesting in the nosedive we software the end of trade. joe: absolutely. another interesting volatile day. more bread on the screen. it is also interesting to see what is going on between the market and the dollar. kind of a lot of attention starting to get paid to this. look at this two-month correlation with the s&p 500, inverse correlation with the dollar. that is the main story here in terms of th

bostick is right, some inflation is that we're growing right.f the acceleration in inflation. a lot is temporary in nature. the fed is right on that. base effects are tremendously low. when you have very low year-over-year comparison of course you will get numbers that look astronomical. they're likely to fade away by mid-summer. charles: so let me ask -- >> -- the point of inflation. charles: before we get to the structural stuff, simply on a scale of say one to five, with five being hyperinflation, where are we now and then how high will we go considering structural or transitory, where do we go from here? >> well i would say we're at two. certainly we're not in an inflation boom. we're probably going to see inflation top 3 1/2% by the summer before it retraces by year-end but i think the level that we need to, you're looking for a number, right, charles? i think the level that may spook the fed that core pce that trends above 3 1/2%. remember they have an average target of 2%. it is not a firm target. it is an average. above that i think the

romaine: i'm romaine bostick. let's take a look at where the financial markets stand. concerns about inflation, concerns about taxes, and of course, concerns about rates rising took a bite out of u.s. equities. joe: and dogecoin too the question is, "what'd you miss?" romaine: you had to go there. caroline: if you are looking after the market shot, maybe it is a walk that coming from yellen. there were worries throughout the day that we had this watchword of modest. the rally into the close, we ended up with a modest selloff. the nasdaq 100 recovering from a loss. the index posting its worst day into months. this is the volatility of the u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen said interest rates may have to rise modestly to prevent the economy from overheating. she seems, to be giving us context saying she's not pretty ring or recommending a rate rise. she seems to be trying to finesse what she was trying to say to the markets. we have not gotten an inflation problem. the fed will be there to help. we have to remember, when she speaks at such conferences, she was once fe

romaine: from bloomberg world headquarters, i'm romaine bostick. joe: i am joe weisenthal. caroline hyde is off. romaine: let's look at where financial markets ended the day. the dow, s&p and nasdaq ended the day flat. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss?" romaine: ism gauge, a factor activity coming lighter than expectations. 60.7 reading. what does that mean for you? in april, down from a high of 64.7. despite the drop, the gate is showing an economy and strong expansion. the real fear, i can be found underneath the headline number. prices paid for materials jumping the highest since july 2008. factories stockpiles detracting since august. customer inventories dropping to a record low, adding to evidence that the biggest impediment to the v-shaped recovery is the l-shaped recovery in the global supply chain. a price to everything. all trending at or near record levels. manufacturing and but and i will show you a shortage. joe: did you come up with that l-shaped recovery on-the-fly? romaine: i did. joe: that is a really good one. i'm really into that. i might steal it.

later we will hear from bostick and parker later -- harker later.they say about inflation? help me with football right now -- it is the end of the season. jonathan: which league? tom: i cannot keep track of the leagues! jonathan: neither cannot. --neither can i. tom: how late in the season our way? jonathan: -- tom: how late in the season are we? jonathan: there are two or three games left. rinaldo lost out on a place in the to be in sleek. there is a tight race in spain -- place in the league. there is a tight race in spain. jonathan: abramowicz went out and hired an arsenal supporter! jonathan: i thought -- tom: abra,owicz -- abramowicz went out and hired an arsenal supporter! jonathan: i thought abramowicz was an arsenal supporter. tom: on radio, this is the chart of the moment. moonshot covers it. out of the pandemic, it is a true moonshot. email lesson, vote -- email us in time, folks. jonathan: is this a labor market price issue? tom: it is a natural disaster issue. we are coming out of a natural disaster. what is fascinating is what is the po

kathleen: but failed bostick -- raphael bostic speaking today. people spending more money has been a lot faster than the response in supply and that's why we are seeing price pressures building. this will not be enduring. jim bullard saying it will be temporary and some of it will feed through to inflation expectations. let's look at the chart to get to the other side of the story. if you look at the bloomberg chart, what you will see is the white line showing the pce year-over-year, key measure now up, clearly rising. the important line to focus on is the yellow line, market breakevens. it is clearly moving higher. it is the blue line. university of michigan has been doing a survey for decades. they ask people about inflation expectations. you are seeing a big jump in expectations for inflation five years out. that number is up to 3.1% from 2.1%. a lot of fed officials, that's one of their most favorite measures of expectations. it has moved higher, is moving higher. this team of fed officials would say, of course they are up because prices are

with caroline hyde, romaine bostick, and taylor riggs.e from bloomberg european headquarters, this is bloomberg markets. we have some breaking news coming from the federal reserve. a coin being discussed. they plan to publish a report on digital currencies, a view of the possibility of issuing a u.s. century bank digital currency, and indeed involving the most that the fast evolving technology of digital payments. let's get michael mckee. what do you make of the report? >> it is interesting timing because the fed has been looking at this for quite some time.

if i say it three times -- bostick, bullard and brainard, my trifecta. steady-state inflation but madame reynard tells us we are extremely well anchored in terms of inflation. and perhaps that is borne out by the breakeven, the 10 year breakevens rolling over. perhaps what you have to ask yourself is the important part of inflation and a mix is longer-term inflation expectation, they are extremely well anchored. many people in the market are talking about the five-year swaps market that has rolled over. the breakevens have rolled over but so have the five-year swaps are tilting over. are we passed at the peak of our inflation angst? it implies some development in pushing up inflation. i would not expect that to get embedded. that's the essence of it, are the expectations becoming embedded which would lead to an an morning -- unmooring. jp morgan said it ready for about a 10% correction, john norman did, but jp morgan saying we are in the sweet spot overall. you will have a robust second half. they have a bullish view on telecoms, go to my winton -- linke

it's romaine bostick in for mr. ferro. how does a british guy get a four day memorial day weekend?t? romaine:

also cinelli bostick.nk of america this week saying it will hike their minimum-wage to $25 by 2025. do you expect we will see a wave of banks doing the same thing? doug: >> i hope so. i hope every company would provide a living wage to customers. we help our customers spend and invest with companies that do great for their employees and for the planet. one of those ways in which we assess companies is how are they treating their employees? are they paying a living wage? what we know and what we have seen is that those companies that do right by their team members, that do right by their workforce are the ones that end up doing better financially. at the end of the day, just in the self-interest of companies to make sure that they have a workforce that is at high quality and incentives and as excited as moving forward as they possibly can. sonali: we see all the banks heading to washington. we see wages come up the last time around. but if you look at the banking system as it exists today, wages , fossil fu

cinelli bostick is readying herself.te lawmakers are very concerned about their constituents, whether they will be able to pay back their mortgages and whether they will be kicked out of their homes. a lot of people are also renting . a lot of that is very unclear across state lines and regions. they want to note the banks will be there at the end of the day at the late stage of this pandemic. 3 million people across the country still behind on the rent payments. you are also talking about wages , the ceo to employee ratio has been a big concern. guy: -- alix: thanks a lot. busy afternoon for you. coming up, "balance of power." head over to radio in the u.k. for the cable. this is bloomberg. ♪ in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated te

romaine bostick has some movers for us this morning.: there were so much in this market about retailers. the idea that you had this pull forward, that you were going to have these tough comps and retailers weren't going to be able to make those comps, but to make it easier, macy's up significantly in the premarket, up about 6%. not only did you have net sales jumping more than 40%, but gross margins expanded -- but gross margins expanded -- but growth margins expanded. the bottom end of their forecast on a full year basis, that is on revenue on adjusted eps, way above what the street was looking for. of course, you had those online sales jumping about 30%. he 7%, well above expectations here. so again, this idea that these companies will be heard by these year-over-year comparisons, not the case for these two companies. not quite a retail story, but keep an eye on amazon this morning, hiring premarket by 0.7%. a report last night saying the company in talks to buy mgm movie studios. that would be a $9 billion deal and would mark a huge

romaine bostick on top of that for the market close as well. this is a joy and an honor.are ever so lucky, you get to work with eugene surely at the urban institute years ago. bonus round, he also did a tour of duty at boston college. howard gleckman is the guy in this country who combines tax analysis with our fractured retirement system. he's with urban brookings, and we are thrilled he could join us this morning. you heard the senator from wyoming there. very simply, the taxes are not going to be on the 1%. they are going to be on others as well. is the senator from wyoming correct? howard: no, not in the short run. there's very little chance congress is going to raise all the taxes biden wants even on the 1%. he is certainly not proposing to raise taxes on everybody else. over the long run, sure. there's no doubt that we are running up huge deficits. we've been running up deficits for decades. at some point we are going to have to repay them, but not anytime soon. tom: let's go cbo on ourselves right now. very simply, can the new money coming in actually move the need

tom: you can get hammered with romaine bostick today on "the close." is all wound up about mr. draghi miller. i will -- mr. dr uckenmiller. william dudley is the former president of the new york fed, for years at goldman sachs, writing for bloomberg opinion. we are thrilled bill dudley could brief us this morning. i want to talk about policy rule inertia. the physics of guys like you, you do in newtonian mechanics, and we start talking about inertia. what does the inertia look like right now to higher interest rates? william: at the short end, there is the inertia of keeping short-term rates steady. they are not going to begin to raise interest rates until they get to full employment, 2% inflation, they are confident in place and is going to go above 2%. we know it will take a while. once they start, they are going to be late, so they are going to have to catch up. i think people don't really fully appreciate when they have to catch up, the level of short-term rates is going to climb much higher than what is currently priced in by financial markets. to

tom: romaine bostick, thank you so much.hich of the most anticipated morning notes on the street. and lincoln -- ian lyngen with bmo capital markets rights and exquisite note on the state of fixed income. he joins us, head of u.s. rates strategy. i love how you frame friday's job report as the what now jobs report. we are going to get one million jobs, and then there is the what now of it. describe that. ian: first of all, thank you for that wonderful introduction. i appreciate the kind words. that said, we are at a pivotal moment for the treasury market. we are at a pivotal moment for the reopening narrative, and the fact of the matter is we have brought forward a lot of the upside, the vaccine rollout, whether one believes we have any chance of reaching herd immunity at this point or not, it has been accelerated, and we are at a what now. what happens if we get a one million to 2 million nfp print, and we still rally after the fact? people are just looking past the initial stimulus inspired growth in the first half of the