e.m. asia. each of those economies subsequently are more open than the other. they trade more.t is ultimately good for the manufacturing sectors. when we talk about data peaking, it's important to think about it in terms of momentum versus levels. in terms of levels, we are not at peak anything. production is likely to accelerate from here. i take hunter's point about certain bottlenecks arising, but if you are an investor, what do you do with that? has the 12-18 month outlook really changed? prices still send a signal. if you are going to trade around the peak ism story, it's a trade you want to rent, not own. caroline: not an excellent backdrop. connor, your perspective on this friction, how long it might remain. no longer fearful or going back to work. women perhaps returning to the labor force more easily. does that mean we could see this later explosion of growth? >> i think he's right about the 12 to 18 month view, but i think the market is focused on 3-6 months. maybe these short-term frictions are more severe and longer-lasting than we thought. last spring, we thought w

joining us as chief asia e.m. strategist jonathan garner. always great having you with us. to be helping the region. what markets are you less bullish about? jonathan: it's really a question of style. i will come back to markets in a minute. but once we broadly prefer cyclicals to growth, we think as we are entering a more difficult midcycle environment for the global economy more generally, one should be operating quality. so that's superior balance and strong profitability. now, on which markets are we more cautious on, in general we are cautious on markets, or we h ave a high growth stock representation. so we did downgrade offshore china and particularly the china internet sector in january. and we continue to be cautious there. more recently in this midyear outlook we also downgraded taiwan, which is a more hardware-oriented market. but taiwan is trading at a record valuation premium to overall emerging markets, roughly a 50% premium on price-to-book. we think this midcycle environment, particularly as we round-trip, the strength in tech spending going on late last yea