first, to steve liesman. he has breaking news on the economy. steve. >> scott, thanks very much the federal reserve reporting that household net worth rose to a record $137 trillion, up by $5 trillion in the first quarter. there were big gains in real estate, big gains in equity holdings by household. corporate debt also is on the rise again maybe it is a good sign, companies are borrowing. a record increase in real estate wealth equity holdings by households, up about $3.2 trillion real estate holdings up, i believe it is a record, i can't go back further, up by $1 trillion debt overall up 5.8% gains in household debt, business debt and federal government here. but a big number, real estate equity, the percentage of equity up by 67%. that's the highest level since 1990 bottom line, scott, as of the end of first quarter households had an awful lot of money. >> they sure did the wealth effect times a lot, steve, throughout a whole swath of the economy we appreciate it steve liesman, thank you very much our senior economics reporter. >>> let's brin

new reporting from steve liesman on where the phet stands on tapers. the 120 billion. the fed look like it will discuss tapering as soon as the upcoming meeting in june, and could be on track to taper later this year, early next year at least five fed officials have been publicly commenting on this importantly, after the jobs report, she made the comments right here on cnbc, what does the time line look like? it will be several months later december, january a deliberate attempt to avoid by making it clear to markets, taper is on a different time path, scott, with different criteria to avoid another taper tantrum then they're going to make a decision that they're going to do it sometime down the road you have a very long runway, i think the market is convinced, and raising rates comes after tapers that giving it until they have to worry about pricing in higher interest rates. >>> giving it the benefit of the doubt. joe, you know, how does this sound the way steve has just laid this out? but not for a while. when you pull back liquidity because of the tariffs, you're go

let's talk more about the inflation picture and what the markets are pricing in we got to bring in steve liesman, he's got the answers, we hope. what do you think, steve, markets at record high, maybe it's all priced in at this point? >> so can we get a picture of joe adami's face -- >> whose joe >> sorry, guy adami. >> he's been up a long time. >> guy's face -- sorry, it's been a while here's the thing, somewhere around 9:15, after a 5% inflation came out, somebody guy, on some trading desk and bunch of trading desks said go buy ten-year bonds and that's what they did. it strikes me as a little bit over the top here. i was early and forceful with the idea that this inflation thing can be transitory i never thought there was no risk around the idea that inflation could be a problem so to me it seems like the market may be over correcting from an overrecreational cannabis earlier. over correction earlier. if you look over time we went from 90 to 160, far as 170, in about a flash of an instant, right and now on the down side. the idea that people would turn after this 5% number, second one, with i

say some of this hangs around a while if you are millions not coming back to the workforce. >> steve liesman, good weekend thank you. >>> another industry hiring in big numbers, cryptocurrency. hundreds of jobs are open and some with no crypto experience necessary. that story coming up just a little later in this news hour >>> the former president trump could be coming back to one of the biggest social media platforms in the world just in time for 2024. facebook announcing the former president will remain suspended from their platform for two years. but the company did open the door for his potential return after that if certain conditions are met. for months now the former president trump has been exiled from wirt, facebook and other social media platform after his supporters stormed the capitol and launched a deadly insurrection today the former president responded to the suspension repeating the same dangerous lie that got him suspended in the first place, that the election was stolen he also lied about the number of votes he received. in the written statement, the former president writes

mark mahanay thank you for joining us. >>> breaking news on the fed steve liesman with the details stevet will begin winding down it is secondary bontd market corporate facility beginning relatively soon. a fed official saying this decision is unrelated to monetary policy. the smccf, these sales will be gradual and orderly. the fed says it will maim to minimize the adverse market impact of making these sales it was established during the pandemic, a historic far real estate by the federal reserve into purchasing something other than bonds and mortgages it currently holds 13.7 in corporate debt just by way of context the corporate bond market in the u.s. is about $46 trillion it is a very small amount both of what the fed holds, which is more than $7 trillion, as well as a small part of the bond market the plan is for the federal reserve to tell the etfs it acquired first and then sell the corporate bonds individually the goal of the federal reserve is to ends the down by the end of one. >> just to be clear, this is unrehled to the tapering discussions and inrest rate levels if some peopl

industry it added 292,000 jobs mostly at restaurants and bars cnbc senior economic correspondent steve liesman on our story tonight. leisure and hospitality workers and some bumps in play what does it mean for the labor shortage >> you know, employers are finding, shep, sticker shock when they see what it costs to bring people back to work. they've been accustomed to the supply of labor. wages up $1.29 over the past year high unemployment benefits keeping some on the sidelines. others people have difficulty finding child care support jobs may not be in the right place. workers may not have the right skills and there is another factor here many millions during the pandemic they just dropped out of the labor force and took the opportunity to retire, maybe became stay at home moms or dads or just out looking for work -- stopped looking for work some may never come back or only at a higher wage. >> states are cutting jobless benefits this month. do you have an idea how big a factor that could be for the june report? >> yeah, well it's going to be a massive experiment in the impact of the extended

let's get to steve liesman for the details from the beige book. steve? >> yes beige book colored by talk of inflation, supply disruptions. moving faster than the prior period the positive effects from the economy from increased vaccination rates and relaxed social distancing measures adverse impacts of supply chain disruptions. i will come back to that vehicle sales constrained by light inventory though they were doing pretty well in terms of vehicle sales. factory output increased and widespread shortage of material and labor. the strong demand for homes outpaced the capacity to build supply chain disruptions delayed projects and increased cost. we'll get a big jobs number on friday employment gains moderate. strong gains in hospitality and retail and difficult to hire new workers. let me give you more detail just the lack of job candidates prevented from increasing output and some had to reduce the hours of operation price pressure increased further. input costs rose briskly why you had sharp increases in construction materials.cting of raw they are sa

more jobs available than the economy lost since the start of the pandemic steve liesman is going try now to make sense of the numbers steve? >> i'll do my best they're very confusing one answer looks to be that the economy has grown and need more workers than before the pandemic and suggesting the labor shortage could grow and get worst. oxford economics thinks some 2 million workers may have retired early because of the pandemic and the participation rate of those 70 and older plunged immigration leaves jobs unfilled there's not the normal influx of workers from abroad and jobs could be in different places where low income workers haven't or can't move to where those that fled the pandemic liver and work there's a calculation of the job short falls are. 2.1 million more job openings than that were in january 2020 where are those extra jobs accommodation food service, trade transport and utilities. all those are just the additional jobs since january 2020 economists think temporary benefits end and then schools reopen and could be lingering shortages. for example from early retirement

steve liesman is here with more. >> the idea that the surge in inflation is term rare looks to be conventional wisdom in markets and could be right but markets seem to have swung from inflation panic to inflation serenity the 10-year benchmark done nothing but rally since the jobs report on friday and the raging 5% cpi report yesterday extending the rally in which yields fell to 1.459 not everyone is so sure inflation is so temporary. some believe the fed purchases to distort the economy joel naroff said businesses didn't have this pricing power in decades and they will get used to it they pass the prices to consumers. hopes that the process plays its out by the fall a key is oil prices just domestic production down nearly 2 million barrels a day compared to before the pandemic if that production comes back prices could moderate. if not you could have tight supply now strong growth in the second and third quarter looks to be baked in you could have higher inflation and the fed take away stimulus as fiscal stimulus itself runs out. >> we have the big fed meeting next week. there might be a chan

new reporting from steve liesman

i'm sure steve liesman will do that tomorrow. that's where our head is at.g about the statement. we will get a summary of economic projections with the statement. i would not be surprised if the 23 median for fed funds shifts higher it takes two fed officials in the no camp to shift out i wouldn't be surprised if you see a median hike show up for '23. >> it is a big deal. you know, in a small way, they started tapering with the corporate bond no one cares about that they have to start some somewhere. tom porcelli, thank you. good to see you. >> thanks. >> it already has begun in a small way. >>> let's end it with the morning rbi. it starts with a riddle. if tree prices fall in the woods and no one around to hear it, do they really fall yes. the answer is yes. here is random, but good news for home buyers and do it yourselfers. lumber prices are cut down to size after soaring, lumber futures have fallen the most ever in one week's time with data going back to nearly 40 years futures prices are now down a stunning 40% from the highs of just one month ago price

ago, according to the labor department it's the biggest increase in more than 12 years cnbc's steve liesman watches this sort of thing steve, is there a way to estimate how long this inflation will last? >> you know, we just are figuring this out as we go the hope is by early fall, we'll have these supply disruptions and other issues sorted out that are pushing up inflation the issue is we opened the economy very suddenly, 0 to 60 faster than a lamborghini, with all the vaccinations and relaxations of social distancing rules. you can see that if you look at all prices, they surged as everyone hit the road. opec has yet to bring back on line the oil it brought off the market during the pandemic that has yet to happen that is supposed to happen later in july. that doesn't mean lower gas prices, necessarily, but they should stop perusing as fast as they have been. >> doesn't the federal reserve have push for this what are they doing to counter >> they could, but right now they think these bottlenecks are temporary. you have microchip shortages, those are pushing down car production even idling

hole fed symposium in august to be the time where they will sit down in a beautiful field with steve liesman things up. is this the all-clear for the summer >> well, brian, i think while we know what is coming, the question is what does it mean for investors. and investors should be activelily requisitions their portfolios right now, we have expectations that rates will be high so what if it doesn't happen a week from now or a month or maybe a year from now. the point is we need to reposition to safety we need to prepare for the midmarket transition that we are in and rotate out of the risky stocks to the defensive position which is an appropriate thing to do at the moment >> katerina sisimonetti, thank u for being on thank you for joining us we look forward to that fed meeting, take care >>> most of you are right in the middle, why do we pick medium when it comes to everything. most of you picked that medium with interest rate call by the end of the year. thanks for watching "worldwide exchange." a big fed meeting today, dow down a ltlite, nasdaq futures up we'll see you. "squawk box" is ne

steve liesman's reporting in the past couple of weeks suggested the fed knows this history and it is going to be extra careful in the way it delivers its message in a way it frankly has been clumsy in the past. >> that's correct. but i think too much has been hinged on this idea of easy forever. and, listen, the inflation news is not good on every front every inflation indicator from today's import/exports, to the ppi that we saw yesterday, to the cpi that we saw the week before was considerably above expectations i do not see how the fed could ignore that and say, hey, nothing much is happening. and, you know, listen, i want to trust the fed that they are the guardian of the currentsy and will take some action coming forward as i say, it's going to produce a ripple here. as i said, a taper tremor rather than tantrum but i do think that they have to face this reality. >> maybe the expectations are out of whack, though. >> yeah. >> of course there is inflation, professor. we just went flew a pandemic the worst of which we have seen in 100 years. lumber has rolled over copper is in the

idiosyncratic, like jim said, but we see opportunity >> but if you knew, if you knew, rob, based on steve liesman's reporting yesterday which he shared with us and, of course, all of our viewers that the fed was basically going to go at a snail's pace and be very deliberate and it was going to layout its message in such a clear and thoughtful way for investors that we weren't going to repeat the mistakes of the past and have any kind of taper tantrum. by the way, they're not tapering today, they're not tapering tomorrow, and it is going to take a long time before they do, and when they do it is going to be very incremental and tapering isn't raising rates. so that comforts the market to some respect, does it not? if i told you that was the environment along with this enormous growth that we're going to get into and an improving earnings picture as jim lebenthal was talking about and an improving industrial as stephanie link just said, isn't that improving for stocks? >> it could be if the fed gets behind the curve we wrote a piece recently called "is the fed the new slow hand" kind of mimicking an

a man with the answer, steve liesman joins us now steve, what do you think >> good morning, andrew.n out to be right. but with stocks at record highs, bond yields and the 10-year retreating below 150, markets have gone from inflation panic to inflation serenity. not everyone is convinced the price is right joel naroff said businesses haven't had this kind of pricing power in decades, and they will get used to it businesses have increased costs from labor and supplies and they plan to pass them along to consumers. the danger, inflation before prices begin to ease with these price increases, a person is $50,000 worse off than they were a year ago how does that help the economy ryding thinks the fed should be in the process of tearing back its assets they think the fed is going to start talking about tapering this june as a way to counter the development of inflationary psychology he doesn't think it accelerates the taper process but that is a risk the market faces, at least as the numbers continue for several more months. here's the deal, as it stands now strong growth in the second a

i'm going to pass it over to steve liesman. want to get his take on all of this steve? >> yeah.nder stating what rick has. rick has some awesome classic cars man, they're going up in value good investment. automobiles, used cars and trucks up 7.3% on the month of may after 10% in the prior month. rick, what do you have, some old fords as i understand it >> we have a lot of old ones, but the one i've been working on the most if you can see my fingernails, as a matter of fact until midnight last night, an old kennedy era lincoln, suicide doors. '67 koptcontinental. it's funny you mention that. it's not only inflation on car prices, used prices, collectibles, lit thoughs. what do they all have in common? they're not paper. they're not paper. you can touch them you can sell them. you can look at them. >> right right. right. >> you can drive them. that's important >> but let's talk about what's going on, rick, and i don't want to take it from our fabulous anchors here, but is it the market trading like this is peak inflation? you look at the forward rate, implied inflation in the tip

steve liesman joins us now with more i'm wondering, it's ancient history, steve, a month ago that crazymind do we get it back? is -- is this going to be a much better number? give me what your estimate is. if it's bad, are you going to be quoting herman melville again? >> no, i've done quite as much quoting of herman melville as i will do, joe may is the rubber match. we had a weak payroll number in april. wall street looking for 671,000 new jobs unemployment rate expected to dip to 5.9, 6.1% the street, neither have i, done a good job at guessing the labor market i want to show you these numbers, these atrocious numbers. the street would miss by plus or minus 59,000 jobs. since march of 2020 the miss is averaging 1.3 million. the past three months it's come down to a still terrible 400,000 jobs so in the course of the virus, the setting and the relaxing of social distancing rules, the impact of those big jobless benefits, school reopenings, closings, other changes to the economy. hey, maybe the jobs are where the workers are not. it's beyond wall street's predictive power this is shift

. >>> wall street is waiting for more following yesterday's hot inflation number steve liesman has more on this friday afternoon hi, steve. >> hey, courtney the line at the fed is to stand pat in the face of this current inflation surge because the fed thinks the surge will be temporary. but there is some speculation that the fed in its statement next week or perhaps a statement by fed chair powell at his press conference will note diligence about inflation that is above expectations krishma guha says we think policy makers view starting tapering discussions sooner rather tan later as a way of safeguarding inflation expectations against a possible upside surprise in the months ahead. some believe the fed should go further. one writes if there was a monetary hippocratic oath, its first tenet should be do no harm why is the fed still easing at $120 billion a month the 10-year benchmark has done nothing but rally since the jobs report on friday and the raging 5% cpi report yesterday which extended that rally. as yields which move inversely to price pfell to 1.46 as it stands now, strong gr

steve liesman has more on the red-hot inflation reading and mike santoli has a look at the market response. steve, kick it off forus. >> thanks, morgan. yeah, a blockbuster inflation number that investors seem to think is peaking or has already peaked but providing details that do fuel the debate about whether this price surge is temporary or something more lasting. up 5% year on year, these are big numbers. 0.6 and 0.7 ex energy. used cars up 7.3%. airline fares are 6% below where tlerp before the pandemic. natural gas is up 1.7. food rising 0.4% the hot take from economists shows there's a robust debate about whether this is all going to go away or if high inflation numbers are here to stay the pace should stabilize and moderate as reopening affects fade and once supply catches up. that's not the view at morgan stanley where ellen writes the more persistent components like rents and oer firmed up as well more than expected point to a firmer source of foundation for the inflation. and ian shepardson with the best line of the day from pantheon saying the fed better be right about bottlenec

steve liesman breaking down the internals and what it all means. hey, steve. >> good morning, carl.the market today, it looks like investors have made their peace with inflation and are ready to move on but a look at the numbers gives fuel to the debate about whether this is all temporary or if some of this is maybe more permanent here. let's take a look at the headline numbers, up 5%. that's the highest since 2008, year on year take out food and energy, up 3.8, the highest since 1992 on the month of 0.6 and x food up 0.7. diving into the details, there's some temporary stuff in there. used autos up 7.3% reflecting the chip shortage. airline fares up 7%. after 10% last month we're still 6% below where we were before the pandemic natural gas surging, apparel up and food up 0.4% it doesn't look like a lot but it is a lot for the food component. the hot take we got this morning from economists shows there's a robust debate about whether this is all going to go away in the months ahead or if high inflation numbers will linger. the pace should stabilize and moderate as reopening affects

our steve liesman joins us with a special guest. good morning, steve. >> good morning, carl.fed president, an opportunity to get the fed's views on the jobs report this morning. good morning, president messer >> good morning, steve glad to be with you. >> yeah. a tradition to have you on jobs day here we like it give it your reaction, 559 jobs. the unemployment at 5.8 %. is this in your parlance, substantial further progress >> i view it as a solid employment report. jobs up. unemployment rate down labor force participation wages up i view it as progress continues to be gained in the labor front. that's good news but i'd like to see further progress i'm using, like, february 2020 as a benchmark and looking at how far back we are to those levels, and some of the indicators she we're maybe about 80% back if you look at the overall unemployment rate. other measures less so if you look at labor force participation, we've only made it back half the way after the big fall again, i think we still have further progress to make i was pleased we saw progress in that report, but i would

steve liesman, but a lot of people are saying you need a course correction because you're behind the boat with inflation, but this recovery has a long way to go such and such person from whatever news organization that's what he is fixated on >> 329.5 million and a lot of the richest people would say he could destroy us, the working person if he keeps this up and there is no evidence whatsoever that that is the case and it kind of gals me at times that the billionaires are protecting the little guy and the ceos, and those who make $200 million are not great protectors with the little guy. >> the market has sided with the fed, giving the fed the benefit of the doubt and knows what it is doing, barclay's, had the note, that the market is no longer pricing for out of control inflation. those are the facts, right by virtue -- look at the 10-year. >> look at the 10-year. >> the 10-year, all of these people tell us, look what the what it is saying at 2 but when it is 1 1/2, other than barclay's, no one is saying anything barclay's does that piece and all of a sudden wow, stock trading, and

but i also think, as our colleague steve liesman this morning. >> that's right. thank you for the segue there. because liesman did tweet this morning. quote, from where i'm sitting, powell has managed not just to avoid a taper tantrum, but found taper tranquility. true, he's not tapering just yet but talking about it and bonds are rallying, that is already better than in 2013, and he said and while i'm betting the fed is quote not displeased, to see some froth jim come out of stock, someone is going to notice soon that lower bond yields argue for higher stock value. and it makes a lot of sense. >> the principle part there is from where i'm sitting which we don't know. what i like about what steve said is once again, you go and do this talk like jay powell did, the 40 people raise their hands, don't you have to, don't you have to, and he says no. we'll do it, we'll take 2023 and you send bullard out and bullard who is a noted, i would say dove, and a very thoughtful man, obviously, five, six years ago, i had quite a tiff with him. >> oh, that's right. forgot about

steve liesman is looking at this this morning >> good morning, carl.onventional wisdom. that could well turn out to be the right call, but with stocks at record high, bond level retreating below 1.50%, it seems to revolve from inflation panic to inflation serenity. joel narf tells me businesses haven't had this kind of pricing power in decades, and they will get used to it a variety of business surveys already showing business have increased cost from labor and supplies and they're passing them along to consumers. the danger here, that inflationary psychology takes hold before prices begin to ease writing, with these price increases, a person is $50,000 worse off than they were a year ago. how does that help the economy inhe's among those who believe the fed should be in the process of paring back the asset purchases. they think the fed is going to begin talking about tapering this june, as a way to counter the development of an inflationary psychology, but doesn't think they're going to accelerate the taper as it stands now, most economists think stro

thank you, sir >> exactly >> all right let's check in with steve liesman. do you think, steve >> you know, going in the right direction. these are good numbers this is the input to the claims numbers. what we see here is that the total claims and to get that number we unfortunately have to go back a couple weeks and look at a snapshot of history here. that did decline 15.4 million that said, they remain very high people are taking advantage of programs that are out there for whatever reason. rick, we don't want to necessarily make assumptions about people being lazy or otherwise remaining on the dole. perhaps there are other reasons they're not going back to work that number is coming down if we get a strong number on friday, it will show it's going up pace. i want to take a look at the productivity numbers. >> big revision on continuing claims big revision >> what is it? >> go ahead, rick. >> 3,602,000 is the revision to last week's continuing claims. that does usurp the last week in april which was 3,640,000. so just wanted to point that out that in the r

labor market and a closer look at the numbers doesn't lead to answers, just a lot more questions steve liesman data makes no sense why is that, steve >> economists struggling to figure out where are the workers? how many jobs there are. whether we have a temporary problem as andrew was musing about or if this is something that lingers on. job openings hit a record 9.3 million in april wait, we're only 7.5 million jobs below where we were in february 2020. what is going on out there one answer looks to be the economy has grown so we need more workers than we did even before the pandemic. labor supply is being held back by a variety of factors. they seem mostly temporary but you take a hard look at them and there could be some permanent parts to all of this here are some of the issues we have come up with. oxford economic says 2 million have retired early those 70 or earlier has plunged. immigration issues also leaving jobs unfilled. resort towns like cape cod, the jersey shore, they don't have their normal influx of summer workers from overseas. there are government benefits holding people back

month period since back in 2008 intensifying the debate over fed policy we will have more from steve liesman for earnings. a couple of highlights campbell's soup and gamestop on wednesday. apple kicks off the developers conference today more on that from dan ives we have him on frequently. he will be on at the bottom of the hour france welcomes back tourists on wednesday. you need to show a negative covid test do we have a decent vaccine proof yet? the cardboard? >> andrew has the passport >> new york figured it out i didn't realize that app was created by the folks at ibm. they were trying to use the app to do it nationally. i hope they still do it is amazing. >> still only for new york >> yes >> they happened to have the data how do you prove you put your batch number in >> no. a quick quiz have you gotten a credit score quiz or someone is figuring out if you are you they say what date did you have it on? they give you five dates you get the date right which one did you take what time was your appointment >> i don't know my appointment >> not time was your appointment? >> the grammar polic