looking forward to the speech from richard clarida later.ll not take much to move that median dot, i think that is an important point. lisa: and the fed looking at an economy that is fait based. getting down to 3.8% unemployment, i look at what we are seeing in the job gains, when will we start to see progress? is it going to be in september? jonathan: can you tell me what progress is? lisa: i cannot. i will say upside surprises in some of these labor market reports, the numbers we've been expecting, when we will see them on a repeated level? tom: yields lower by three basis points. -- jonathan: yields lower by three basis points. sometimes it takes a wild for markets to remember they do not care about the adp report. tom: 1.14 versus where we were weeks ago is different. i would focus one what happened yesterday with american airlines and spirit air. it was an absolute joke. x percent of their pilots cannot get into the sky because of massive staff dislocations. how do we guesstimate a friday jobs report with a historic standard air you cou

richard clarida says he was waiting for more data. it will be less international than we usually will be. one of the reasons to go to jackson hole's you get the central bank governors from around the world. given covid i do not think we will be getting many of those. there'll be less chatter on the international perspective. alix: let's go international. what you expect from the boe tomorrow? adam: nothing. there will be some kind of statement but i think the bank of england is quite understandably in a watch and wait mode. i remain quite surprised by sterling's strength given all that has gone wrong with the government's handling of covid and the vaccinations and all that has gone as expected therefore wrong with brexit. the bank of england does not have to do much. the u.k. is on a recovery path, inflation is not going crazy, the fed is outflanking them and everywhere else can still overshoot u.s. expansion from the fiscal side. guy: will leave it there. really interesting conversation. thanks for joining us. adam posen. greatly app

next, federal reserve it vice chair richard clarida talks about the u.s. economy with the peterson institute for international economics and this is 50 minutes. >> hello everyone and welcome back to the petersons institute pretty. [inaudible]. for host a speech then on the record discussion with vice chair of board of governors and the honorable richard clarida. and this is in the moment to that doctor richard clarida for his opening speech. is now posted on the website and of course, the entire program is being streamed live and will be available on the website and other public places from the moment it is finished. richard clarida began as for year term as vice chair of the governors and 2017 and in 2018. and and ended in january of 2022. and doctor richard clarida is professor of economics and national affairs from university where he talked in 2018 and many of my colleagues at peterson, have study with her had the privilege to work with doctor richard clarida. and this was during a period of time of colombian also. [inaudible]. and author to many impor

. >> so this tim richard clarida was totally personal. i am who i am, because of the things i chose to study and i chose to study it by accident, even chemical engineering. i have no idea. i don't know why i was unaware of this, this was not an option. this not something that peoplese talk about. but obviously they're entered names out there but most black people indefinitely for people and definitely left for people, lisa and i was going up never were presented these opportunities. reasons like now for you and there i happen to be the most, i was a girl and i was in literally women and girls do not study engineering.. don't you know that. and the teachers, they didn't even give, they gave her they tracked you to something else. and joking way but is true. you can be a teacher and educator or whatever it is, you can be a life scientist pretty good through the biology, it is not engineering. specifically male white career guide i literally have had access to working at the best companies out there pretty and in ways that was real. i gradua

anna: that was fed vice chairman richard clarida talking about the u.s.nomy and raising rates during an event at the peterson institute for international economics. if those comments that may be excited some in the market this morning. chris turner, ing head of fx strategy, maybe was one of them. nice to have you with us. we saw a pop in the dollar, a bit of a pickup in yields on the back of these richard clarida comments. does it reassure you that the fed is maybe on its path towards the taper despite the delta variant? chris: yes, it does. i think it was a very important speech yesterday, mostly very close to kind of jay powell, vice chair seen as quite dovish. the speech was pretty explicit really. the fed has presented a conditional tightening situation, conditions need to be met. he eventually said by the end of 2022, those conditions will be fulfilled, in theory, and we will be ready to tighten. i think those specific comments from a dub as opposed to dutch dove -- as opposed to -- specific comments from a dove -- mark: he is known as being dovish,

live programming will continue next, as we take you to comments from federal reserve vice chair richard clarida, talking about the u.s. economic outlook at the peterson institute for international economics. it has just gotten underway, live here on c-span. >> he taught from 1988 to 2018. on behalf of my colleagues at peterson you studied with her had the privilege to work with -- studied with or had the privilege to work with -- [inaudible] important works on military policy and economics. he served as assistant secretary of the u.s. department of treasury, was effectively the chief economist of the treasury from 2002 to 2003. [inaudible] working with jay powell, now joining him at the fed. -- recognition of his service. he served on the council of economic advisors. rich is not only known in academia -- [inaudible] was a member of the national bureau of economic research. 2018, co-editor at the npr international --dr. clarida received his bs in economics and phd. rich, it is our privilege to have you 11 months ago when you came to the peterson institute to explain the strategic framework and

look at richard clarida does speech from a couple of days to get -- look at richard clarida's speecha couple of days ago. he highlighted inflation. there are hawks and doves in the market. i think the balance of risk to higher inflation is something we had before the report, but certainly this report particularly, what might highlighted, average hourly earnings reinforces the risk on the balance of risk being towards higher inflation. michael: jon ferro -- tom: jason furman with a blistering tweet, he calls it a wonderful set of data. neil dutta says this is a massive start to q3. jonathan: is what we all wanted to see. jeffrey rosenberg of blackrock, great to catch up. 943,000 the number, 870,000 was the estimate. an upside surprise and a nice upward revision. it means nasdaq futures are lower .33% come s&p 500 futures firmer .1%. your 10-year gilts up about -- your tenure yield -- your 10 year yield up five or six basis points. that is quite a turnaround. tom: i will dovetail this report into what we see in the mohamed el-erian s8 in the washington post. it is not that he has to mo

there is an interesting speech earlier this week from richard clarida in, the vice chairman of the fedand one of the architects of the new framework announced last fall, and he explicitly said that the unemployment rate hitting 3.8% would be consistent with him for the first rate hike. we do not know the timeframe between the beginning of the tapering of asset purchases and rate increases, but given that unemployment is at 5.4% and we had a big improvement, that could come relatively soon. it also depends on what others think. i think there was a perception that calrida was more on the debtors -- clarida was more of the devilish side compared to others. it is hard to say. the language in the fed statement is they will not begin raising interest rates until they reach maximum unemployment. other than that, there's not a lot of guidance. caroline: some of the slack we are seeing in the labor market with participation rates, 5% sounds really good but how many people are going back into the labor force? some people still have to be caregivers as we face the delta variant. matthew: right, s

shery: let's delve into those comments by richard clarida confirming he is on board with moving up the date of the fed's first rate hike in the start of its bond tapering process. kathleen hays joins us with more perspective on the spirit how significant is it to hear such comments from the number two at the fed? kathleen: you have the fed chair. he is number one. vice chair, number two, john williams, new york fed president, number three, they are the core of the fed, the ballast. when you see -- he says in prepared remarks, when he says rate hike conditions being met by the end of 2022, paving the way for a hike, listen. >> it is the outlook -- if the outlook's turn out to be the actual outcomes for inflation and unemployment realized over the forecast horizon, i believe these three necessary conditions for raising the funds rate will have been met by year-end 2022. kathleen: vice chair richard clarida saying he is in favor of announcing plans to taper this year and starting the process next year. the money markets, they are now signaling more than ever that yellow lot. not the blue

in a speech on wednesday, the fed's number two in charge, vice chair richard clarida, said interest ratesin 2023. and he was joined by two other top officials in signalling that the central bank might soon start winding down the amount of cash it's pumping into the bond markets. that hit shares on wall street. samira hussain in new york has more. the comments by the vice—chair of the federal reserve that the current pace of the economic recovery could mean interest rates could be going up by 2023 is noteworthy especially when you couple it with comments made earlier by two other central bank policy that they would like to see the federal reserve start reducing its massive bond buying programme. it is a sign that the fence could be looking at easing its accommodated monetary policy much sooner than it and, frankly, many others had originally thought. all of this depends on incoming economic data in the next few weeks, including labour reports, inflation readings and, of course, consumer sentiment. and it also really depends on the virus. the delta variant of covid—i9 is weekly spreading in

. >> we just heard from the vice chair of the federal reserve, richard clarida, talking about their potentialcould do a 2021 announcement on tapering, a 2023 left off. how will that affect some of the banks in your region? >> that is probably the most important bit of angst in the next 12 months. not only taper, but also the lift off. if i think one layer behind that, why will any of those rate decisions be taken? it is because growth is good. would we do start seeing in the case of better growth, higher rates, in most parts of the world, growth comes back in a more meaningful manner. [indiscernible] probably the other more important one is the quality. growth washes away all the -- [indiscernible] i would say that is pretty positive. [indiscernible] we are very confident that singapore banks become one of the -- [indiscernible] rishaad: very quickly, who is best in the digital space? who is making the most of the fintech revolution? >> every country, every market has one or two lead players. i would say very comfortably -- we go market by market. on the flipside, we would have what i would c

richard clarida do, the vice -- fed vice chairman is speaking.s he keep jackson hole alive, lisa? after the government cannot and port freezing cold water on it -- governor came out and poured freezing cold water on it. you think someone wants to take a vacation in jackson hole? [laughter] coming up, marvin barth. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no better feeling. (announcer) do pelvic tilts for perfect abs and to strengthen your back. do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me, it works 100%. (announcer) think it'll break

we heard from richard clarida a couple of days ago, the chair and vice chair are looking for more substantialrogress. nevertheless, that's what they want to see. that is why this is important. one thing we are going to see tomorrow is that while white unemployment has come down, unemployment for people of color have also come down. but, black and hispanic unemployment still stay very high. on the political side, joe manchin from west virginia, who has been such a key vote for democrats, he is urging powell to start tapering, citing inflation risks. there will be a lot of things that come out of this jobs report that are going to be discussed just hours from now. >> kathleen hays. let's get more on the recovery implications. i want to bring in nicole webb, senior vice president of the wealth enhancement group. talk us through the noise. you rightly say a lot of solutions, a lot of things have been thrown at the pandemic. recovery, the delta variant complicating things. what is the path forward? >> thank you for reading through my notes. it has been -- we were faced with an unparalleled obstacl

we will talk about that with lena, after hearing from richard clarida yesterday.he dollar index moving down but not much. nymee at $69.13. let's get back to the bank of england. the central bank warned modest tightening will soon be needed as inflation is expected to exceed 4% later this year. earlier we spoke to andrew bailey who discussed inflation expectations. >> a big issue here is inflation expectations. that gets us to the question, i'll be going to see second round affects, are we going to see it built into wage bargaining, are we going to see it become more persistent? that is where we have to act. monetary policy cannot solve the world's shortage of semiconductor chips. we cannot solve that problem. the key question is, to all of those things, the second round affects which causes inflation, and we have to act. matt: joining us now is lena komileva, g plus economics chief economist. there is a lot to talk about. what did you think of the slightly more hawkish turn? lena: it was definitely more hawkish today. we are moving from an environment where centra

the reopening, as richard clarida has said, when you're reopening a $20 trillion economy all at one timeere is demand for the labor all at once. it will take several months to work its way out. lisa: before we got these releases you said you were more focused on the employment market because that is where the fed focus was. i want to pair these ideas, the fact we are getting progress on the labor market to encourage the fed to tighten with ppi coming in. 7.8% year-over-year for ppi final demand. these are astronomical numbers. what is your big take away from these reports? brett: if you give me one piece of information, what was the -- lisa: ex food and energy trade was 0.9% month over month. brett: still fairly high, so the wholesale margins are doing well. the big thing from the inflation standpoint, the ppi you can really see it. transportation costs are a big problem. warehouse and transportation costs have skyrocketed. that reflects a strong demand for goods and lack of transportation to carry them to the market, where the biggest softness in inventory is. from the inflation standpo

i am looking at a vix 17.46 which brushes off richard clarida do. then a swiss 20 year, which i featured in the 5:00 hour, and you tell me. jon: we are not doing much in the fx market. your euro is 1.1835. lisa: there's a consistent theme of pound a strength and we have seen this as the vaccination rate gets on track and as the recovery gains esteem. it will be interesting to see how it's inflected in the banks of england rate decision. we are not exciting a policy change in any material way, at least on the headline rate. we will be getting press medications of how they taper their bond -- mitigations of how they taper their bond guidance and how tapered rates could go. i'm sure you will go later on into this and the show. 830 a.m. time, jobless claims, these are noisy numbers. market bridges and pins look for any clues for the u.s. labor market because you have rich clarity yesterday coming out and saying basically this is the metric to look for. he does see progress made enough and is consistent enough with potentially raising rates as early as 2

richard clarida. tom: it is going to be interesting.ld's in paris after spending $41 on a martini. jonathan: needed a cheeseburger after that, did you? tom: i thought the people at amex would be upset, so we did a nombre deux. jonathan: you get that french out. i can rely on lisa to look at the bond market now. do you want to look at nominals or reals stateside, or do you want to look at europe? lisa: i want to look at nominal yields across the board because i think real yields are confused, looking at the chips, and the statistic that ira jersey throughout. the fed owns 30% of the chips market -- the tips market in the united states. but are we talking enough about the distortions the fed is creating with their ongoing bond purchases, and whether they can stop? what happens if they stop and there is a material dislocation in the market? jonathan: so the next time someone says what is the bond market telling us, will you have a different answer to whom, gloom, and real fears about the future in a, growth? lisa: no, i will still have tho

this is august 4, when vice-chairman richard clarida said he could see that as a strong possibility.e fed starts talking about the possibility of raising rates, the dollar goes up. at this point, there's pretty much nothing more to do except talk about raising rates. they can't cut them anymore. they may delay it because of covid, but if they are going to be talking about tapering, it will be interesting to see what happens with the dollar and with interest rates as the fed goes forward. alix: perfect set up. thanks very much. so what was the question mark last week was what we see for the dollar. we are seeing that come off a little bit, but the question was , is there a safe haven trade? or was this really a fed minute taper conversation rally? joining us to break it down is kristen macleod, barclays cohead of global fx sales. in order to understand what we do with the fed into jackson hole, we have to understand what we did last week. what was leading the rally for the dollar? kristen: i think what we have seen in the past we can have is a shift from the market trading for growth

jonathan: that speaks from richard clarida to tomorrow. that is a big one. the board of governors come with governor waller coming out yesterday. tom: this goes to our interviews that we have had with the vice chairman. some of those interviews rather heated. this is the great monetary economist of leadership of the fed. powell is not an economist. many of the others are very qualified, and rich clarida drives a theoretical bust at the fed. lisa: the federal reserve and how they are going to react. my question is, are we starting to see a cooling off in some of the pressure, particularly within inflation. yesterday highlighting a supply chain disruption. pressuring growth in a new way, jon. jonathan: do you want to lisa: hit tencent quickly echo lisa: i want to hit spiritual opium -- quickly? lisa: i want to hit spiritual opium. tom: where do i get in on this? jonathan: this is the close in hong kong at 6%. lisa: spiritual opium and electronic drugs. a state owned media outlet of china included a criticism of videogames as such. honestly, any parent who has

powell, in his press conference, going to lean over to the former dean of columbia economics, richard clarida -- which of these series do i use? that is the traditional mode, isn't it? bruce: what they will continue to hit is two basis points. one, they see the inflation of this year is having a big transitory inverter -- transitory element, but at the same time, they say look, we do understand we are wrong. if inflation does pick up in a more sustained way, we will respond to that. it is the issue about -- where does that shift take place? i do think the fed has a lot of tolerance for letting core inflation. by the way, tom, we had 54 4% and employment rate last friday. that 5.4% on employment rate last friday. to talk about the fed staying on hold here for another 18 months or so is an unusually different reaction function from what we have seen in the past. lisa: bruce, how much are you counting on president biden's build back better, build back better, bill beck america plan, the $3.5 trillion plan, the outline that did move through the senate last night? bruce: well, it is hard to put a

several other fed officials here on cnbc we have bostic coming up, pat harper, loretta mester and richard clarida on this show tomorrow you're going to want to tune in, tyler. >> a lot of fed speak tomorrow steve, give us a sense of -- i mean, everybody knows a taper is coming, it would seem. how important is the timing of the announcement or the hinting or the winking to the markets, or is it already all in there? >> reporter: i mean, it's a good question we can't survey everybody in the market, tyler, but if you don't know that a taper is being discussed, it could well happen october, november or december. i'm afraid you probably should give in your license for holding any stocks at all. >> thank you >> reporter: you should be banned from providing any investment advice or even actually holding any assets sort of thing >> steve, thank you very much. well put >>> treasury yields on the move ahead of the annual summit rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. >> reporter: intraday right around 1:00 eastern rates dropped a bit. that's when we completed the note option, $183 billion in coupon s

this morning the vice chairman, richard clarida, he expects under his current projections for inflationnd employment, commencing policy normalization in 2023 would be entirely consistent with our new flexible average inflation targeting framework. essentially saying buckle up. it could happen sooner rather than later. but is the blueprint correct? the fed will have to telegraph it if he is right tapering sometime this year, real soon although i personally don't think they have enough data to do it. certainly not before the jackson hole meeting. for all of the talk that the fed is slowing down asset purchases, that there is no hard and fast rule for central banks you know, to sort of at some point stop the accommodation you know there is no level folks, there is no real precedent for central banks to stop buying. i want you to take a look at the bank of japan. they went from owning their own government debt, 7%, to well over 50%. keep in mind they also own a big chunk of their own stock market. so with all that in mind, yes the s&p came in today hitting a new record 42 times this year. t

another one coupleo coming one richard clarida. and they maybe ready to vote in taper and may be ready to vote in dissent if they don't get that in september. and that's something powell has to finesse >> jim, jump in here i know you have a question >> yeah, steve always good to get your insight on this because you're the best fed watcher i know i watched jay powell. >> thank you. >> i don't watch him as religiously as you do. i got to tell you, as a market participant, i felt he was putting his arm around my shoulders and saying doesn't worry let's get an ice cream i mean, it was focused on employment we're nowhere near and the indicators aren't showing it and really doubling down on transitory the question to you is, from a tone point of view, do you think i'm reading him right? did you read it that way i mean the tone was so dovish, it seemed -- it was remarkable to me. >> yeah, to an extent. i would like to remind you, jim there was a scene i believe in good fellas where the guy put his arm around joe peshi in the basement do y

that would be further down the road now, in an exclusive cnbc interview, the fed vice chair, richard claridalowed up the speech by saying he expects the economic to meet the fed's condition for tapering >> we have had 800,000 jobs per month for the last three months, and so i expect that those gains will continue in the fall. if that happens, i would also support commencing reduction in the pace of our purchases later this year. >> while powell was careful about pinning down the taper timing, several presidents said they had growing concerns inflation could prove to be a more permanent problem and that the fed's asset purchases were doing more harm than good, but most were united in saying they did not think the delta variant posed much of an economic threat >> that was really interesting, steve. stay with us let's bring in a former fed insider who can give us insight into the central bank's thinking richard fisher, former fed president and contributor with us thank you very much for being here after this very important week, especially as it pertained to your area of expertise. i want to ju

in a speech on wednesday — the fed's number two in charge — vice chair richard clarida — said interestpumping into the bond markets. that hit shares on wall street. samira hussain in new york has more. the comments by the vice chair of the federal reserve, that the current pace of the economic recovery could mean interest rates will start going up by 2023 is noteworthy, especially when you couple it with comments made earlier by two other central bank policymakers, that they would like to see the federal reserve start reducing its massive bond buying programme. it is a sign that the fed could be looking at using its monetary policy much sooner than it, and frankly many others, had originally thought. of course, all of this depends on incoming economic data in the next few weeks, including labour reports, inflation readings and, of course, consumer sentiment. and it also really depends on the virus. the delta variant of covid—19 is quickly spreading in many parts of the us, and that could derail the country's current economic recovery. if your screen time has shot up in the past year, y

live programming will continue next, as we take you to comments from federal reserve vice chair richard claridaout the u.s. economic outlook at the peterson institute for international economics. it has just gotten underway, live here on c-span. >> he taught from 1988 to 2018.