paul mitchell. thank you for joining us. paul: thanks for having me. kristen: the latest poll was from uc berkeley and it showed him beating the recall by a big margin. what are the latest numbers and how confident are we about them? paul: the latest numbers to show him beating the recall by approximately 20 points, a wide gap considering six weeks ago without this was a race in a single digits. the poll by berkeley showed that the no side was at 40 -- the yes side was at 47% and the north side was that 51%. so it looked like it was going to be pretty narrow. but now that more people are paying attention to it and voting and the changed a lot in the next eight weeks, we see that it will go down in defeat tomorrow. in terms of votes that have been cast, we are able to tell not how people voted, but who voted, and we see the democrats, almost 4.5 million of them have voted. among republicans, about one million republicans. with a race that is very polarized, it is a good indicator of where it stands. kristen: so things are looking good for governor newso

i know it's still the or buying this is vanita mercy the paul mitchell. this off he was on the choice and by the plant indian food on let's and fish mit. in 90 minute an investigation against mark was launched after the film was released the what the journalist who reported was not in line with the west official stance ah, gap, the middle for fun of getting mrs. butcher in line sky and didn't publish done with me. ever chef isn't of professional near the middle of the school at a time through i to what else? and so this was done. i was going this to the end of the payroll. i was off the list of is climate and your daughter said these are, these are in sort by listening to me stop by and i watched boy in him, off nish, mark. he used his film to tell ordinary people the truth as he saw it. it wasn't $40.00 stories. you can't bring truth to those who don't want it. clearly whether or not there are people or reviving lunches is of no concern. what so ever to united states for nato? anything that makes the ukrainians willing to cause trouble with russia is wel

also paul mitchell, part of a company that keeps track of voter information for campaigns. a strategy by the governor to focus solely on larry elder, is that going to help the governor? >> he certainly thinks it will. nobody dislikes president trump more than most democrats in california. president trump got 34% the last time around. now why do i say that? because what governor newsom is doing is trying to connect larry elder with president trump. so, if you didn't like president trump, he's saying, look at what you're going to get with larry elder. as far as the governor's concerned, getting people to focus on one person instead of 46 will make it easier for him to have his foil and to show people distinct differences between the two. >> what if people, even democrats here, want a change, knowing if larry elder does win next week it's essentially a one-year term until the 2022 election. what if people want to flirt with the change here? >> they may. one of the problems is we know how many democrats have voted, but we don't know how many have voted for the recall. that's a

paul mitchell of political data inc. says so far that is higher turnout than expected per special election, which could be good news for governors newsom. gov. newsom: something change. a lot of the democrats have gotten the news that the governor is being recalled -- at risk of being recalled. liz: many republicans might be waiting to vote in person. >> when we look at the outstanding balance, we see a lot of republicans and young people in a lot of latinos. those voters, if and when they vote, can really change the complexion of his final electorate. ama: this is continuing his get out the vote efforts, reaching out to minority communities and young people. he is attending tonight a virtual event with api leaders underrate. this weekend, he will campaign senator elizabeth warren at event in los angeles. dan: ok. ama: wild boars are back and look at this. they are terrorizing another east bay neighborhood. what one home earner is trying to do to protect his yard. ama: a surging problem in the south bay with drug overdos

paul mitchell says so far that is higher turnout than expected or a special election which could potentially be good news for governor newsom. >> something changed. a lot of democrats have gotten the news that the governor is at risk of being recalled. >> a lot could still change the final 13 days. many republicans might be waiting to vote in person. >> will look at the outstanding balance, we see a lot of republicans, young people, a lot of latinos. those voters if and when they vote can really change the complexion of this final electorate. >> governor newsom is continuing his get out the vote efforts tonight. he spoke at a phone bank event and he joined with a api leaders. i spoke to phil about whether he things governor newsom's focus is a winning argument. >> contrast that he and his $50 million campaign is out to draw in the final weeks of the campaign. gavin newsom is the steady hand going forward. larry elder and the others that are on the list to possibly replace him will be a step back. it is an old put a coat tactic. you can either inspire or scare. right now, gavin newsom is in t

ceo paul mitchell, he anticipates we will have 50% turnout overall, pretty good for an off election existthe highest turnout in the bay area is marine county, 43% of ballots have been returned to their. some of the lowest turnout in the state right now in the counties is l.a. county, only 24% of ballots have been returned in l.a. county. dan: interesting. feel, obviously there will be a flurry of campaigns. -- campaign appearances. what are you watching out for ahead of tuesday? phil: i am turning the buzzer off my phone, because i'm getting bombarded with text messages saying vote, vote, vote. [laughter] we will see a lot of television ads. it is kind of late for mail but we, will see last-minute pushes, phone calls. they need to up the number, t newsom, in order to counter the republicans and the people who want to recall him. that means turnout. so keep and i on your phone and your tv set. one way or the other, they will get the news to you. ama: and finally, liz, what parallels can we draw with the california 2004 recall with governor gray davis and arnold schwarzenegger? liz: the dif

reporter: paul mitchell tracks the early voting coming out.retty good for governor newsom. we are seeing higher turnout than expected. he's at when he 1% of voters so far -- 21% of voters so far in california. many of them democrats. you are seeing more democrats turnout and republicans. it might be too soon to say, but i think governor newsom's team has to be happy about that. larry: but they are cautious come as well. we are talking about the early voters, people that grabbed that ballot and sent it back when it came in the mail. we are seeing high numbers of return rates in the bay area. which is always a high turnout when it comes to the vote. and it votes democratic. the fear is that places like los angeles, are they going to sleep through this, as they do in so many elections? is the turnout going to drop? meanwhile this other side is not highly organized. they are motivated on the internet with each other. they are calling each other. they've got a real grassroots operation out there. one of the key swing votes is lightly going to be la

and we just have to see whether those republican ballots come in at the end, pd vice president paul mitchellsays the early numbers follow partisan patterns from the 2020 presidential election driven by former president trump's rhetoric on the practice of voting by mail. what strikes mitchell is the huge gap in turnout by age. more than a third of people 65 over have voted people 18 to 35 or at less than 10% particularly those democrats in that young person pool. if they don't turn out and vote, then it's going to be hard for democrats to get the same kind of overall overall turnout they need, mitchell says. turnout amongst latinos will also be a major factor in this race. so far, the numbers show returns at 11. recent polls show latino voters split on whether or not to recall the last thing we need is to have some right wing republican governor in california, perhaps in a nod to latinos and young voters, newsom's campaign launched a new ad with bernie sanders. the vermont senator carried support from both groups by a wide margin in last year's primary at an event in oakland tuesday, governor

and we just have to see whether those republican ballots come in at the end, pd vice president paul mitchells the early numbers follow partisan patterns from the 2020 presidential election driven by former president trump's rhetoric on the practice of voting by mail. what strikes mitchell is the huge gap in turnout by age. more than a third of people 65 over have voted people 18 to 35 or at less than 10% particularly those democrats in that young person pool. if they don't turn out and vote, then it's going to be hard for democrats to get the same kind of overall overall turnout they need, mitchell says. turnout amongst latinos will also be a major factor in this race. so far, the numbers show returns at 11. recent polls show latino voters split on whether or not to recall the last thing we need is to have some right wing republican governor in california, perhaps in a nod to latinos and young voters, newsom's campaign launched a new ad with bernie sanders. the vermont senator carried support from both groups by a wide margin in last year's primary at an event in oakland tuesday, governor ne

and we just have to see whether those republican ballots come in at the end, pd vice president paul mitchell says the early numbers follow partisan patterns from the 2020 presidential election driven by former president trump's rhetoric on the practice of voting by mail. what strikes mitchell is the huge gap in turnout by age. more than a third of people 65 over have voted people 18 to 35 or at less than 10% particularly those democrats in that young person pool. if they don't turn out and vote, then it's going to be hard for democrats to get the same kind of overall overall turnout they need, mitchell says. turnout amongst latinos will also be a major factor in this race. so far, the numbers show returns at 11. recent polls show latino voters split on whether or not to recall the last thing we need is to have some right wing republican governor in california, perhaps in a nod to latinos and young voters, newsom's campaign launched a new ad with bernie sanders. the vermont senator carried support from both groups by a wide margin in last year's primary at an event in oakland tuesday, governo

miszkowicz paul thomas mitchell richard p. miuccio jeffrey peter mladenik frank v. moccia, sr.ouis joseph modafferi and my father. your strength continues to motivate us. may we continue to make you proud. we love you, we miss you. until we meet again. >> and to my father. he was the coolest guy on the block from his neighborhood in brooklyn. he was the best house dj the neighborhood ever saw. he taught me to be proud of my heritage and my blood and i will always charge forward with that. thank you. [applause] ♪ boyie mohammed dennis mojica manuel d. mojica, jr. kleber rolando molina manuel de jesus molina carl molinaro justin john molisani, jr. brian patrick monaghan franklyn monahan john gerard monahan kristen leigh montanaro craig montano michael g. montesi carlos alberto montoya antonio de jesus montoya valdes cheryl ann monyak thomas carlo moody sharon moore krishna v. moorthy abner morales carlos manuel morales paula e. morales sonia mercedes morales puopolo gerard p. moran, jr. john christopher moran john michael moran kathleen moran lindsay stapleton morehouse george wi

miszkowicz >> paul thomas mitchell >> richard p. miuccio >> jeffrey peter mladenik >> frank v.and my father charles joseph lorenz and. your strength continues to motivate us. we love you, dad. we miss you. until we meet again. >> and to my father, the coolest guy on the block from his neighborhood in brooklyn. a tragic and beautiful puerto rican neighborhood. the best house dj new york ever saw. he taught me to be proud of my heritage and my blood and i will always charge forward with that. thank you. >> boyie mohammed >> dennis mojica >> manuel d. mojica, jr. >> kleber rolando molina >> manuel de jesus molina >> carl molinaro >> justin john molisani, jr. >> brian patrick monaghan >> franklyn monahan >> john gerard monahan >> kristen leigh montanaro >> craig montano >> michael g. montesi >> carlos alberto montoya >> antonio de jesus montoya valdes >> cheryl ann monyak >> thomas carlo moody >> sharon moore >> krishna v. moorthy >> abner morales >> carlos manuel morales >> paula e. morales >> sonia mercedes morales puopolo >> gerard p. moran, jr. >> john christopher moran >> john

paul. >> i've advocated to the end of the war for over a decade. i'm glad it's over. >> good day. i'm andrea mitchell. being grilled by democrats and republicans about the timing of the withdrawal from afghanistan. a large number of afghan allies and some americans left behind. >> mr. secretary, the execution of the u.s. withdrawal was clearly and fatally flawed. this committee expects to receive a full explanation on the administration's decision on afghanistan since coming into august last january. there has to be accountability. >> you know, there's not enough lipstick in the world to put on this pig to make it look any different than it is. >> i don't know how it's possible, if in fact, the people in charge of our foreign policy did not see all of these factors and conclude that there was a very real possibility of a very rapid collapse, then we've got the wrong people making military and diplomacy decisions in our government. >> joining me now, nbc's garrett hague on capitol hill, former nato supreme allied commander who led the forces in afghanistan and matt zeller, afghanistan combat veteran.