andrew bailey says they will have to act. joining us now -- i think we were meant to hear from andrew bailey but we will get to that in a second but joining us now is john o'toole. a lot going on in the markets. a lot of focus on inflation and the repricing of bonds. what is more attractive right now? john: we are looking at things through the prism of financial conditions and we see them as still quite accommodative. real yields continued to be negative -- continue to be negative. we do see a growth slow down. we see the inflation impacts coming through and they are quite substantial but we are still in the transitory camp but the duration of the transition is debatable. francine: how worried are you about some of the earnings coming out because of the energy prices even if inflation is transitory? john: first sure the short-term will have tremendous pressure on company margins. we have had a decent beginning to the earnings season in the u.s. particularly the bank sector. there will be sectoral differences. rates will drift

governor andrew bailey warns of potentially damaging inflation. and hong kong's chief executive defends the city's stasis -- status as a financial hub as a covid risks choking growth. more on our exclusive interview this hour. what is your risk and reward? your risk is the stagflation narrative mounts. rate hikes might be something for next year but the tapir is probably going to be reaffirmed. and the energy crunch. to me, it encapsulates the essence of data. inflation surprises the highest -- inflation prices the highest ever. let's look at a quote, the personification of the day, the inflation surprises the highest ever, the economic surprises have turned lower in the meantime. this toxic combination of ratcheting inflation expectations with a drop in the data is a bad signal for equities. the inflation narrative outpaces the growth narrative by the current margins paired this is -- margins. this is your risk. what stagflation might you get? 19 stephanie style -- 1970's or 1940's style? i want to show you the growth forecast. oil ratcheting abo

this is after andrew bailey said that the bank will have to act. european gas prices jumped on november delivery, it has not booked additional pipeline capacity despite putin saying that russia would deliver what europe needs. covid concerns grows as europe sees rising cases of the delta plus variant. the story today is in the energy market. stocks are drifting a little lower. . the story really is in the rates market where we see a huge shift in front end pricing. for bank of england, it looks like a good hike nearly twice this year with another basis points year. alix: aggressive we rating their -- re-rating there. the backend is a little bit more wishy-washy. the 10 year real rates here in the u.s., we are moving a little bit higher. moving below that 100 basis point level. even though you are seeing yields pushing higher, you are saying tech outperform, up by .3%. -- seeing tech outperform, up by .3%. that has to do with oil pushing higher again. crude at 82. that is helping the energy sector. you still see that selloff in the bond market. guy:

andrew bailey warns about damaging inflation. a surprise resignation and shock election results under major protest. we bring you all of the details. and tech lives asian stocks but u.s. futures fall slightly after friday's disappointing job forecast and oil continues to push higher. welcome, everyone. it has just gone 7:00 here in london. mark, good monday morning. what are the markets saying? mark: despite the fact that u.s. futures are weaker on the back of goldman sachs cutting growth forecast come in asia, it was a progrowth market. asian markets are higher led by china and japan. commodity prices are higher. a lot of focus on energy prices. and we are seeing yields higher. cash equity markets are closed because of columbus day but futures are falling lower with higher yields in that market. anna: a lot of people asking what they take away from the jobs report? with that in mind, let's have a look at where we are on the european future is. just to the upside. u.s. futures mixed. a slight downward bias to some of those. we ar

and pricing in a more rate hikes after andrew bailey spoke over the weekend. i am calling at the height heard around the world -- the hike heard around the world. you can see the curve in the u.s., 1.18. you can see the five-you're up by about three basis points. the equity market still well at -- relatively muted, only down .1%, as the cyclicals are outperforming. energy and consumer discretionary and financials. oil still higher, helping to propel that part of the index higher. what is so interesting, guy, it was happening in the cable rate. you may have rates flying higher in the u.k., but you do not have that within sterling. the cable market not showing that. we will discuss that. policy mistake? how do we interpret that? guy: it is interesting, because what we are essentially seeing is the market saying, you know what, we think cyclical timing and monetary timing may actually have a negative effect on the market. it will be interesting here if we do not see progress in d.c., could the u.s. see the same thing? we saw industrial data that was weaker earlie

it will take a while before things get better, but there is reason for andrew bailey to be concerned.the u.k. we are also facing a number of difficulties like higher taxes. it is a tricky situation, but i believe the market has priced the current rate increase has gone pretty far. dani: so wonderful to have you on. that is janet mui, director of investment, brewin dolphin. after a mad -- to a new high this week -- after a mad dash to a new high this week, bitcoin takes a dip. that is next. this moving is a handful. no kidding! fortunately, xfinity makes moving easy. easy? -easy? switch your xfinity services to your new address online in about a minute. that was easy. i know, right? and even save with special offers just for movers. really? yep! so while you handle that, you can keep your internet and all those shows you love, and save money while you're at it with special offers just for movers at xfinity.com/moving. so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. con

dani: andrew bailey pointing out what is next, locusts. thank you so much.is our european market open anchor, tom mackenzie. let's dig into the european story. liz martin joins us. thank you for joining us. you heard tom laying out what boris johnson's vision is for this higher skill, higher wage economy. in your view of where we stand, how realistic is the likelihood we get there? >> i think the productivity is the real issue. we have been looking for productivity gains for a long time in the u.k. it is not clear what this post-pandemic supply constrained environment will generate that new burst forward in productivity. he would hope it would be driven by investment. if we look at business investment so far, it has been relatively weak. i don't think it is due to lack of confidence at the start of the year, at least. it might be due to the supply constraints. you cannot buy vehicles, machinery, the kind of things you need to invest if they are not available and not arriving from asia. it is a lovely vision, but there are genuine logistical issues. the same

andrew bailey says the boe will have to act.ar treasury yields the highest since february 2020. plus, gridlocked. global port congestion threatens the holiday shopping season. manus, good morning. it is all about bonds with perhaps a healthy tinge of commodity moves as well. what caught my eye this morning is the global macro movers. if you look at that screen, we have two nice black boxes on your bond screen. it is aussie, it is kiwi, and that means it is a more than three standard deviation move. could this be a coming bar shock if this spreads globally? manus: yep, we just have a conversation with scott from blackrock. he talks about the violence the past couple of weeks, he thinks inflation will top off. this is the narrative, martin malone gave it to us last week, be careful how you anticipate the bar shocks to come. blackrock believe we will top out in inflation. the violent repricing we have seen perhaps will not endure. the u.s. way ahead of itself. i think we are juxtaposed between the risk of handbrake turn, the risk o

but at the moment, we are not seeing much of that. >> i mentioned the comments from governor andrew bailey driving markets this morning he made no attempt to dismiss expectations the uk could see a rate rise before the end of the year speaking before the g-30 group of central bankers on sunday bailey said the boe will have to act to supply chain shortages and surging energy prices. the uk cpi topped 3% in august with estimates it could hit 4% by september it's a big week for uk data we have inflation figures due on wednesday for september. it will be interesting to see how inflation has progressed over the course of the month and obviously big implications for the bank of england. let's look at gilt and how they are trading this morning when he the whole gilt yield curve higher, 30 year trading at around 1.4%, the 10 year yield around 1.17% >>> despite climate change plpl pledges across the globe, investments remain lower than levels dee dra cooper joins me now, comanager of the global environment fund thank you for being with us this morning. reading through your bio, you've been looking

that sets a dilemma for the likes of the bank of england governor andrew bailey, who is here meeting him that he has to decide when interest rates go up. the markets were not anticipating this would happen until the end of next year and they are pencilling it in for this year in december. recovery is important but there are key trade—offs between inflation and interest rates. trade-offs between inflation and interest rates.— trade-offs between inflation and interest rates. many thanks again. faisal islam _ interest rates. many thanks again. faisal islam in _ interest rates. many thanks again. faisal islam in washington. - faisal islam in washington. the united kingdom is not ready for the impact of climate change that's the warning from the environment agency. it says hundreds could die in floods unless the places where people live, work and travel are made more resilient to the increasingly volatile weather. the data suggests even a small rise in global temperatures could mean that by 2050 rivers could peak at levels around 30 percent higher than today posing a huge risk of flooding

governor andrew bailey recently warned it "will have to act", suggesting that uk interest rates may soone from the historic low of 0.1%. silvia dall�*angelo is senior economist at the international business of federated hermes. good to have you on the programme again. in terms of the inflation numbers today for the inflation numbers today for the uk, what do you expect? today's figures reflect back to september so before the announced hikes kicked in. so inflation will probably remain elevated in september but also little change compared to other matters. it will also be important to monitor and make the breakdown of inflation. price gains are concentrated in sectors most affected by the pandemic, constraints and higher commodity prices. that should be the case again in september. of course, the size of more pervasive inflation should be a concern. looking ahead, the bank of england says that it expects inflation to rise to 4% this winter. zs rise to 496 this winter. 2% above rise to 496 this winter. 296 above its _ rise to 496 this winter. 296 above its own _ rise to 496 this winter. 29

that is what we heard from andrew bailey. also pretty surprising to the downside, jobs numbers as well in the u.s. a lot of this is feeding into concerns about a stagflation. shery: it does not help that we continue to see concerns over the credit space in china, especially with the real estate sector. we are now headed for the property sector being the source of more than 30% of the record $27 billion in corporate local bonds so far this year in china. interesting to see that we continue to see that decoupling when it comes to china's junk bonds from high-grade by the most in a decade. perhaps a signal that this is still contained in the real estate sector. haidi: we continue to watch forever grand. -- four -- for evergrand. we see the end of this massive property development boon and impacts across the broader sector. in the meantime, we are focusing on the founder in this report out later today. really looking for a way out. we have talked about his highflying, wealthy bodies, fellow founders, fellow entrepreneurs who have

over the weekend, andrew bailey warning about damaging inflation unless policymakers take action. michael saunders also suggesting investors were right to bring forward bets on rate hikes. here with more on the story is ben. the market has been out in front. it has looked to what the market has been saying. the bank is belatedly starting to catch up. how much of the rate hike news is already in the price? >> good afternoon. i think plenty is already priced in the market. we are now around 16 basis points. the bankrate is 50 basis points. it is traditionally priced at had in previous cycles. this spread is telling you markets are prepared for two rate hikes at least. there is limited room to surge because there's nothing to stop the market positioning for a third rate hike. they may need to moderate going forward. alix: appreciate it. having connection issues, but week appreciate you staying with us. it is also a story that will never go away, brexit. britain is headed to a class with the european union this week. joe, what is the latest? joe: we have a big speech being given by th

this comes after more signals from andrew bailey may be on the need to curb inflation.s see whether our guest is living in fear and peril. the biggest repricing since 2005, bonds have lost 3.4%. are you living in fear? good morning. >> good morning. what a line to open the show. in fear is probably a bit of an exaggeration but of course we are watching very carefully all of the points that are coming in, and the market is taking note that inflationary price pressures are broadening. we expect most of the earlier debate is transitory. this is taking a lot longer and the supply chain disruptions and labor market tightening are clearly having an impact on price pressures, anybody would take no. it has stoked of debate on when the wrist -- the first rate hike will be. dani: given the pressures and readjustments of attitudes, you -- attitudes, have you adjusted your view? sonja: that's a debate we started some time ago, we think if you look at global bond markets and credit and where government bond yields are, i think it jumped to the market a while ago. clearly -- there is

andrew bailey has bolster the case for raising interest rates. speaking to an online panel organized by the group of 30, the central banks will have to act to curb inflationary forces and warned that higher energy prices will linger. traders are betting that the boe will raise rates in the final months of 2021. >> the energy stored means it will last longer. it will of course get into the annual numbers for longer as a consequence of that. that rate is for central banks. there is concern over expectations. we have bank of england are taking this as another such signal. that action comes in our reports and meetings. vonnie: more gridlock as the pandemic era supply shocks intensified. the fourth congestion tractor deck -- tracker shows 100 ships wedding off of hong kong. the tightening worsens as a typhoon brushed by hong kong. 77% of ports are experiencing of normally long times to turn around traffic. japanese prime minister has made an offering to a controversial war shrine, angering china and south korea. only weeks after becoming the leader. a

in ports and around the world, and that is raising a dilemma for central bankers, because like andrew baileytings, we are all seeing on international markets that expectations of interest rate rises from the end of next year from emergency loans are being pulled forward even to this year, in december, so a recovery, yes, but an impeller ? imperfect one with a trade—off regarding interest rates and inflation. our top story this evening. 0ne one of the uk's worst other public—health failures, and report by mp says thousands die because too little was done at the start of the pandemic. and coming up — the former little mix starjesy nelson addressed accusations of "blackfishing" in her new solo music video. coming up on sportsday on the bbc news channel, england are preparing for its world cup qualifier against hungary at wembley. victory would move them one step closer to a place at the tournament in qatar next year. the uk is not ready for the impact of climate change. that's the blunt warning from the environment agency. it says hundreds of people could die in floods — unless the places where

with the recovery from the pandemic slowing down in recent months, the bank of england governor andrew bailey prevent the economy overheating, pushing up inflation even higher. until a few weeks ago, few economists would have put money on an interest rate rise any time before the end of next year or the year after. now in the city they are giving 50—50 odds that we will get one in december, up to 0.25%, and then another one by may, up to 0.5%. post—pandemic and post—brexit, one old economic ailment — wages that don't keep up with prices — appears for now to have been cured, at least in the private sector. living standards on average are now rising, but the surge in the cost of living no longer looks as temporary as it once did. andy verity, bbc news. meanwhile, the institute for fiscal studies has warned there's no room for big spending announcements in this month's budget. the think—tank said that chancellor rishi sunak will be short on money due to growing spending on the nhs and an economy that's smaller than projected pre—pandemic. this is despite plans for the biggest rise in taxes for m

that's what andrew bailey is worried about.he government think that oppose the government think that was too much to indict the president on genocide, crimes, and homicide. but they still have plenty of other crimes. i think the main reason they are doing this commission is to create a political narrative. this political narrative can be used in the next presidential election. because some of the crimes was already put on the table for the public... forthe was already put on the table for the public... for the attorney general. the attorney general said it is baseless, there is no law in brazil against do not follow some politics, do not follow some strategy or another. it is subjective. in the end it'll be more political stuff than... you aren't going to have criminal implications on that. president bolsonaro dismissed it as politically motivated but many people in brazil and elsewhere will be angry because in march, for example, the president told brazilians to stop whining about covid and that was a day after the country saw

dani: andrew bailey has been vocal saying raising rates will not bring more semiconductors into the industrymonetary policy. we will discuss the clashes a business over supply chain issues ahead of the prime minister's conservative party conference. we will have all of that covered for you next. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back to the open, 43 minutes into the european trading day. the picture across the markets is grim. the stoxx 600 down 1.5%. germany down 1.7%. the dax crossing the 200 day moving average. concerns about inflation, energy, and high yields. the prime minister boris johnson is due to speak at the conservative party conference later today in what will be his first in person conference address since the pandemic. he is expected to make policy announcements, including a possible rise in the minimum wage. >> there is no alternative. the u.k. can do much better by becoming a higher wage, higher productivity economy. we have fantastic supply chains and clever people who work on our logistics. they will fix all these problems. tom: let's go to lizzy burden, who was at the con

andrew bailey is saying that growth is starting to peter out. you have labor shortages.lowing growth and higher inflation is something that policymakers and the chancellor front and center will be coming to wrestle with. stagflation will be on the back of the mind for the chancellor but he will also try to address the issue of jobs in getting people back to work after the furlough scheme at the end of september. the 500 million pounds they will deploy to reskill workers. that is also what the boe will be watching as well. the market has been pricing in two rate hikes in 2022 because of inflation pressures but also economists are saying that the labor market will be watched closely by the boe in support of these 11 million workers. whether they will be able to fill the labor gaps and reduce some of the pricing pressures we are seeing. and by the way, the chancellor will also be trying to give a nod to foreign investors to reassure about the u.k. being an investable location. francine: the u.k. has drafted a plan to replace the northern island plan. -- northern ireland pla

. >> make a mainland governor andrew bailey has bolster the case for raising interest rates. panel organized by the group d, bailey said the central bank will have to actor curb inflationary forces. higher energy costs mean price pressures will linger. traders are betting the boe will raise rates. >> it will last longer. it will get into the annual numbers for a lot more as a consequence that raises a course of central banks to fear expectations. that is why the bank of england has taken hold. we will have to act. that action comes amongst compulsory meetings. >> -- growing more gridlocked as the pandemic era's supply health intensifies. bloomberg shows at least 107 container ships waiting of hong kong as of last friday. the pileup worsens when a typhoon rushed past hong kong last week. probably, markets are experiencing abnormally long time so turnaround traffic. indonesia finance minister turns projections for the budget deficit for this year and next has tax reform and rising commodity prices lead to higher revenue pair the country recently passed a tax overhaul, which at

we know that the bank of england's andrew bailey has said that the wages and employment components and data are central to his and his team's decision-making at the mpc as to the rate hike process. the money markets or processing -- are pricing in a rate hike by the end of this year. in terms of spain, you are seeing selling there. the cac 40, mccrone is in focus macro -- macron reason focus. basic resources that were stronger yesterday and held the stoxx 600 into positive territory toward the close yesterday in europe because of those stronger energy materials prices, energy currently down more than 1.2%. utilities, as well under pressure. banks down 1.5%. we have this debate, as well. banks that you want to be owning, not the technology shares. morgan stanley warning of the divergence between the optimism and markets and the consumer sentiment that is edging off. goldman sachs and jp morgan saying, by the dip -- saying, buy the dip. anna: not one sector in positive territory as we move to the downside. european equity markets opening firmly in the red. global markets struggled to sha

with the recovery from the pandemic slowing down in recent months, the bank of england governor andrew baileytion might not be as temporary as he thought, meaning earlier rises in interest rates are now likely to try and prevent the economy overheating, pushing up inflation even higher. until a few weeks ago, few economists would have put money on an interest rate rise any time before the end of next year or the year after. now in the city they are giving 50—50 odds that we will get one in december, up to 0.25%, and then another one by may, up to 0.5%. post—pandemic and post—brexit, one old economic ailment — wages that don't keep up with prices — appears for now to have been cured, at least in the private sector. living standards on average are now rising, but the surge in the cost of living no longer looks as temporary as it once did. andy verity, bbc news. meanwhile, the institute for fiscal studies has warned there's no room for big spending announcements in this month's budget. the think tank said that chancellor rishi sunak will be short on money, due to growing spending on the nhs, and